Core Viewpoint - The EU is preparing to implement countermeasures against the US steel and aluminum tariffs, with potential impacts exceeding $100 billion on US imports if negotiations fail by mid-July [1][2]. Group 1: EU's Response to US Tariffs - The EU has expressed strong regret over the US decision to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, citing increased uncertainty for the global economy and higher costs for consumers and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic [2][4]. - The EU's countermeasures are structured in two tiers: the first round targets $24 billion worth of US goods, including politically sensitive products like soybeans and motorcycles, while the second round aims at an additional $95 billion, focusing on Boeing aircraft, US-made cars, and bourbon whiskey [4][5]. Group 2: Negotiation Strategies - The EU is prioritizing negotiations to resolve the trade dispute, focusing on key sectors such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which have been affected by US tariffs [5][6]. - The EU has proposed deepening cooperation in these sectors and simplifying regulatory rules to address trade barriers, while also emphasizing the desire to lower tariffs rather than increase them [6].

Core Viewpoint - California's Governor Newsom has filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration over tariff policies, claiming they are illegal and have severely disrupted the U.S. economy [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact on California - California, as the largest importing state and manufacturing hub in the U.S., plays a crucial role in international trade, with a total import and export volume of $675 billion in 2024, and 45% of exports going to Mexico, Canada, and China [3]. - Trump's aggressive tariff policies have significantly impacted California's economy, causing supply chain disruptions, a 12%-15% increase in raw material costs, and hindering 60,000 small businesses from exporting [3]. - The lawsuit against the Trump administration is a direct response to the economic damage caused, including severe losses for farmers and technology companies [3]. Group 2: Financial Sector Reactions - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has warned that Trump's tariff policies are likely to push inflation up, creating a dilemma for the Fed between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth [5]. - Economic experts and financial institutions are pessimistic about the outlook, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 45% chance of recession if Trump continues trade wars, while JPMorgan estimates the likelihood at 60% [5]. - Standard & Poor's has also warned that the U.S. sovereign credit rating could be downgraded from its current AA+ level due to deteriorating fiscal conditions linked to tariff policies [5]. Group 3: Bond Market and Public Sentiment - The trade war initiated by Trump has caused significant turmoil in the bond market, leading to a record increase in U.S. Treasury yields, with the ten-year yield reaching 4.5% [6]. - The rising yields on U.S. debt, which has reached $36 trillion, could increase annual interest payments by nearly $100 billion, further straining the U.S. fiscal situation [6]. - Public sentiment is largely against Trump's tariff policies, with 72% of respondents in a Quinnipiac University poll believing that tariffs will harm the economy in the short term, and 53% believing the same for the long term [8].

Core Viewpoint - A U.S. court has ruled that Trump's tariff policy is invalid, raising questions about presidential authority in trade matters and causing significant market reactions [3][9][10]. Group 1: Background and Context - The tariff policy was announced by Trump on April 2, aimed at addressing perceived unfairness in the global trade system and reducing the trade deficit [5][6]. - The policy imposed varying tariffs on multiple countries, intending to pressure them into renegotiating trade agreements [6][8]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The tariffs have negatively affected global economic stability, leading to rising costs for U.S. companies, particularly those reliant on exports, and increasing consumer prices [6][8]. - Economists and industry associations have warned that high tariffs could disrupt global supply chains and weaken U.S. competitiveness in international markets [8]. Group 3: Legal and Political Reactions - The court's ruling was based on the U.S. Constitution, which assigns tariff authority to Congress, not the president, and deemed Trump's claims of a national emergency unfounded [9][10]. - Despite the ruling, Trump plans to appeal, indicating a potential prolonged legal battle over the tariff policy [10][12]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the court's decision, global markets reacted strongly, with U.S. stock futures showing significant gains, reflecting investor optimism about the potential repeal of the tariffs [11][13]. - A successful repeal could restore confidence in global markets, encouraging multinational companies to increase foreign investments and enhancing capital flow [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on the EU, which has led to significant movements in the global bond market and a surge in safe-haven assets like gold, indicating a reshaping of financial market dynamics [1][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Reactions - Following Trump's tariff threat on May 23, the German bond market reacted sharply, with short-term rates rising due to inflation concerns while long-term rates fell, signaling increased recession risks [4][5]. - The yield curve exhibited a "bear flattening" pattern, with the two-year German bond yield rising by 1.8 basis points to 1.782%, while the 30-year yield dropped by 2.3 basis points to 3.065% [4][3]. Group 2: Safe-Haven Assets - Gold prices surged by 2.1% to $3362.70 per ounce, reaching a six-week high, while the US dollar index fell by 0.83%, reflecting a loss of confidence in US policies [6][7]. - The movements in the bond market and precious metals serve as indicators of capital flows amid trade conflicts [7]. Group 3: EU Countermeasures - The EU's countermeasures include a targeted list of $21 billion in tariffs, focusing on agricultural products that impact key Republican states, while avoiding escalation by removing whiskey tariffs [9]. - Potential retaliatory measures from the EU could disrupt corporate bond issuance and increase credit spread volatility [11]. Group 4: Investment Insights - The article highlights that if the tariff conflict persists until 2028, Germany could face cumulative losses of €250 billion, with the bond market already pricing in these risks [18]. - The risk premium on German bonds has increased by 3-5 basis points, and if negotiations break down before July 9, this premium could potentially double [18].

特朗普出人意料宣布将美国钢铁和铝关税翻倍，此举可能使美国与其他贸易伙伴的双边贸易谈判陷入混乱，欧盟对此表示"强烈"遗憾。 随着贸易战再次出现升级的迹象，现货黄金周一跳空高开，站上3300美元关口。 欧盟委员会上周六表示，特朗普在关税问题上的最新举措"破坏了正在进行的谈判努力"，并就"反制措施"发出警告。 这也引发了对英国与美国就钢铁和铝达成的零关税协议的质疑——该协议虽已达成，但尚未签署。 英国钢铁制造商表示，关税翻倍是该行业"又一次沉重打击"，而英国政府发言人表示，"我们正在与美国接触，了解最新关税公告的影响，并为行业提供明 确信息"。 上周五，特朗普宣布钢铁和铝进口关税税率将翻倍至50%，从周三开始生效。他在宾夕法尼亚州西米夫林的一家美国钢铁公司发表讲话时说："如果达到 50%，他们就再也无法跨越围栏（指新关税税率）了。" 特朗普还表示，美国钢铁公司（US Steel）和日本新日铁（Nippon Steel）将通过合作向该地区的钢铁生产投资140亿美元（100亿英镑），不过他后来告诉记 者，他尚未看到或批准最终协议。 这一宣布是特朗普自1月重新执政以来在关税问题上"过山车式"政策的最新转折。"不会有任何裁 ...

Group 1 - The core argument is that Trump's trade war with China is ultimately self-defeating, as it undermines U.S. credibility and worsens domestic economic issues [1][3][28] - Trump's 90-day extension for negotiations is perceived as a way to allow U.S. companies to stockpile Chinese goods, rather than a genuine effort to resolve trade disputes [3][5] - The warning to 18 countries about potential tariffs reflects a hardline stance, but many nations are skeptical and may delay negotiations, expecting Trump to backtrack [5][7] Group 2 - The recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's indicates a significant loss of trust in the U.S. government's ability to manage its debt, which stands at $36 trillion [7][9] - The U.S. faces a fiscal crisis, with interest payments on debt consuming 30% of federal revenue, and projections suggest debt could reach 134% of GDP by 2035 [9][11] - The tax system in the U.S. disproportionately benefits the wealthy, allowing them to avoid significant taxation through various loopholes, exacerbating income inequality [11][13] Group 3 - The outsourcing of manufacturing jobs to countries like China has contributed to the decline of the U.S. industrial base, leading to economic hardship in regions once reliant on these industries [17][19] - The political landscape in the U.S. is heavily influenced by wealthy donors, which raises concerns about the integrity of policy-making and the prioritization of corporate interests over public welfare [22][24] - The ongoing issues in the U.S. economy, such as high debt levels and tax avoidance by the wealthy, are not caused by external factors like China, but rather by internal systemic problems [26][28]

【文/观察者网专栏作者 张仲麟】 5月28日，《纽约时报》爆料称特朗普政府暂停了允许美国公司向商飞出售产品和技术的许可证，实质 上限制了美国企业向商飞出售包括航空发动机在内的一系列产品与技术。 这意味着由美国通用电气与法国赛峰合资成立的CFM国际很可能无法继续向中国出口leap1C发动机，而 这是中国大飞机C919当前使用的发动机。 在中美刚刚就关税战在日内瓦达成共识并同步降温的当下，特朗普政府这一举动无疑是在重新点燃贸易 战的战火。根据纽约时报的消息，特朗普政府本轮对航空领域的限制是对中国限制稀土矿产出口的报 复，然而我们都知道稀土出口管制是针对美国半导体限制的反制措施。如今特朗普政府针对中国稀土出 口管制进行航空禁售，无疑是在挑起新的事端。 纽约时报爆料，美国政府将针对中国稀土出口管制进行航空禁售 这样的场景每时每刻都在上演 对特朗普政府来说，想要卡C919的脖子早就不是一天两天的计划了。早在2019年底，特朗普第一个总 统任期的末尾，美国媒体就爆料称特朗普计划对C919采取发动机禁售。在媒体爆料禁售计划后一个月 左右，白宫出面否认，将这一传闻画上句号。对比5年前的情况，只能说：此时此刻恰如彼时彼刻。 出 ...

Core Viewpoint - Boeing's CEO Kelly Ortberg stated that developing a new aircraft to replace the best-selling 737 Max is not a priority at the moment, as the market is not ready for a new model and the company's financial situation does not support such an investment [1] Group 1 - The company is currently collaborating with the Trump administration to mitigate the impacts of the trade war [1] - The uncertainty in trade relations necessitates Boeing to remain flexible and maintain communication with the U.S. government [1] - Boeing will pay less than $500 million annually for imported products required for manufacturing its products [1]

特朗普这么着急，恰恰说明稀土问题真的戳到美国的痛处了。之前美国媒体就说过，美军 6 代机项目可能因为稀土问题 泡汤，现在看来，这话还真有可能成真。 特朗普现在这一系列操作，也让我们更加确定，中国在稀土问题上留一手，是非常明智的。而且，在这段时间里，中国 在全球范围内已经完成了 3 大顶级布局，特朗普可能都还没反应过来呢。 中美互降 115% 关税这事，才过去两周，特朗普就坐不住了。华盛顿时间 5 月 30 日，特朗普在他的个人社交媒体上对 中国火力全开。他主要表达了两点，一是说两周前美国和中国达成的互降关税协议，那是他出于好心，想帮中国，可中 国却违反了协议；二是宣称他不会再在中国面前当什么好人了。 就在同一天，特朗普还宣布，要再次对进口钢铁加征关税，直接从现在的 25% 加到 50%。明眼人都看得出来，这就是 冲着中国等钢铁大国来的。从这些事来看，这场波及全球的贸易战，不但没有要结束的迹象，反而再次升级了。 现在大家都在猜测，特朗普说中国违反协议，到底指的是什么呢？《纽约时报》等好多媒体都觉得，这应该和中国对关 键稀土矿产的管控有关。最近这段时间，中国对稀土出口把控得还是很严格。但问题在于，中美在日内瓦达成 ...

882 证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Title] 关税政策反复横跳，618 抢先购服装行业增长 强劲 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 30 日 ► 主要观点： [Table_Summary] 5 月 16 日晚 8 点，天猫淘宝 618 开卖，截止 5 月 26 日 天猫快消、服饰、运动户外、宠物、家享生活、汽车、企业 服务等多个行业 618 抢先购全周期成交榜发布。官方披露的 战报显示，抢先购期间天猫服饰行业增长强劲，优衣库、 UR、蕉下等多个品牌成交破亿，近 345 个品牌成交破千万， 近 3090 个品牌成交破百万，此外，约有 1088 个品牌成交同 比超过500%：1）天猫服饰TOP3分别为优衣库、UR、蕉下； 2）女装销售 TOP3 分别为优衣库、UR、ZARA；3）男装销售 TOP3 分别为优衣库、海澜之家、HAZZYS；4）男女鞋销售 TOP3 分别为 crocs、百丽、staccato；5)内衣销售 TOP3 分 别为 ubras、维秘、蕉内；6）运动户外销售 TOP3 分别为 FILA、NIKE、Lululemon；7)箱包服配销售 TOP3 分别为 coac ...