编辑 | 七三 美股齐跌 当地时间9月2日，美股三大股指在9月首个交易日集体收跌。投资者消化特朗普政府关税政策的最新进 展，以及制造业持续疲软的经济数据。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌249.07点，报45295.81点，跌幅0.55%；标普500指数下跌44.72点， 报6415.54点，跌幅0.69%；纳斯达克综合指数下跌175.92点，报21279.63点，跌0.82%。 大型科技股多数走弱，英伟达收跌1.95%，盘中跌破50日均线，技术面转弱。 亚马逊跌1.60%，特斯拉跌1.35%，苹果跌1.04%，谷歌、Meta、微软至多跌 0.73%。 板块表现方面，房地产板块跌幅居前，标普500地产板块指数下跌1.7%，美国30年期国债收益率升至7 月中旬以来高点，一度触及4.999%。 热门中概股表现分化，纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨0.52%。理想汽车涨超4%，蔚来涨超3%、阿里巴巴 涨逾2%，有道跌超5%，哔哩哔哩跌超3%。 此前，美国联邦巡回上诉法院裁定特朗普政府此前大范围征收的部分进口关税违法，但暂允许这些关税 继续实施至10月14日，特朗普方面表示将提请最高法院对该案作出最终裁决。相关判决在节后首 ...

每经编辑|毕陆名 整体来看，黄金在全球投资组合中依然扮演避险和价值储存的核心角色。 多家机构预测，在横盘4个月之后，贵金属有望开启新一轮上涨行情。对于黄金的年底目标价，摩根士丹利已经看高 至3800美元/盎司。 A股方面，白银有色3连板，西部黄金涨超6%，中金黄金、山东黄金、赤峰黄金、紫金矿业等跟涨。 | 西部黄金 | 25.55 | 6.02% | 1.45 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601069 園 | | | | | 3天2板 人气龙头一 股吧人气 | | | | | 中金黄金 | 18.41 | 3.66% | 0.65 | | 600489 團 | | | | | 人气龙头三 市值龙头二 业绩龙头一 成长龙头一 | | | | | 赤峰黄金 | 28.68 | 3.13% | 0.87 | | 600988 團 | | | | | 成长龙头三 估值龙头二 资金流入最多 | | | | | 山东黄金 | 36.90 | 2.76% | 0.99 | | 600547 融 | | | | | 市值龙头一 业绩龙头二 | | | | | 山金国际 | 21.05 | 1. ...

Group 1: Gold Price Surge - International gold prices have reached record highs, with New York futures hitting $3600 per ounce and spot gold surpassing $3530 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 30% [1][4] - Silver prices have also surged, breaking the $40 per ounce mark for the first time since 2011, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 40% [1][4] Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is a significant catalyst for the rise in gold prices, with historical data showing an average increase of 6% in gold prices within 60 days of the Fed starting a rate cut cycle [4] - Other contributing factors include increased gold reserves by central banks, a declining US dollar index, and rising US national debt, which collectively enhance market demand for safe-haven assets [4][6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The global bond market is facing challenges, with rising yields despite many countries entering a rate-cutting cycle, leading investors to seek non-dollar assets like gold [6][7] - The structural narrative for investing in gold remains strong, with ongoing purchases by foreign exchange reserve managers and increasing holdings in global gold ETFs [8] - The potential for further inflows into gold is supported by concerns over the long-term credibility of the US dollar and the attractiveness of gold as a safe financial asset [8][10] Group 4: Foreign Investment in Chinese Assets - Foreign investment attitudes towards Chinese assets are shifting, with significant inflows into A-shares noted since August, marking a reversal from previous trends [10] - Data indicates that foreign investors have net increased their holdings in domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion in the first half of the year, with a notable increase in May and June [10]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a collective decline on September 2, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 249.07 points to 45295.81, a decrease of 0.55% [2] - Major technology stocks weakened, with Nvidia dropping 1.95% and breaking below its 50-day moving average, indicating a potential loss of short-term upward momentum [2] - Kraft Heinz announced a split plan, resulting in a significant drop of 7% in its stock price [3] Group 2 - The ISM manufacturing index for August recorded at 48.7, marking the sixth consecutive month in contraction territory, with output indicators falling to 47.8 [4] - PepsiCo's stock rose by 1.1% after Elliott Management disclosed a $4 billion stake and proposed active shareholder actions, suggesting potential governance and capital allocation improvements [4] - Kraft Heinz's stock decline followed its announcement to split into two companies focusing on grocery and sauce products [4] Group 3 - Oil prices continued to rebound, with WTI crude futures rising by 2.47% to $65.59 per barrel, and Brent crude futures increasing by 1.45% to $69.14 per barrel [4] - Gold futures reached a new historical high, closing up 2.16% at $3592.2 per ounce, driven by geopolitical and policy uncertainties increasing demand for safe-haven assets [4]

Group 1 - The Japanese political turmoil has led to a significant drop in the yen's exchange rate, with the USD/JPY rate rising over 1% [2] - The U.S. government is facing a potential shutdown due to partisan disagreements, with the deadline for funding approaching [2] - Gold prices have surged past $3,500, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical risks and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [2] Group 2 - The Chinese yuan experienced a sharp rise followed by a slight correction, with future stability expected as the core goal [3] - The A-share market saw a pullback, particularly in the technology sector, but the overall trend remains upward [3] - Yushutech plans to submit its IPO application between October and December, attracting market attention due to its previous successful funding rounds [3] Group 3 - The UK bond market experienced a significant sell-off, with the 30-year bond yield reaching its highest level since 1998 at 5.68% [4] - Southbound capital has seen a net inflow exceeding HKD 100 billion this year, enhancing the pricing power of the Hong Kong stock market [5] - The "national team" funds have revealed their second-quarter holdings, with notable adjustments in positions, including increased stakes in companies like SF Express [5] - The robotics sector saw a strong rebound in the afternoon, driven by rumors of a leading company meeting with Tesla, although the information remains unverified [5]

Group 1 - The core driver for gold reaching $3508.73 per ounce is the strong market expectation for a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with a 90% probability of rate cuts in September [2] - The geopolitical uncertainties and policy fluctuations under the Trump administration have amplified gold's safe-haven appeal, with significant price volatility observed due to unexpected tariff announcements [3] - Central banks globally are expected to purchase over 1000 tons of gold this year, providing solid long-term support for gold prices [3] Group 2 - Silver's price surge is driven by both industrial demand, particularly from the solar energy sector, and financial speculation, with a 30% year-on-year increase in global solar installations [4] - The silver market has experienced a continuous supply shortage for five years, and the inclusion of silver in the "critical minerals list" by the Trump administration has enhanced its strategic resource status [4] - Speculative investments in silver have increased, with net long positions reaching 35%, the highest since 2011, indicating potential short-term correction risks [6] Group 3 - The sustainability of the current gold price level is under scrutiny, as previous attempts to maintain above $3500 per ounce have failed [5] - Long-term support factors for gold include rising geopolitical risks, diversification of reserves by emerging market central banks, and the onset of a Federal Reserve easing cycle [6] - The future trajectory of precious metals will depend on the Federal Reserve's rate cut decisions, the evolution of Trump’s policies, and the global economy's ability to navigate high uncertainty [6]

Core Insights - Gold prices have reached a new all-time high, surpassing $3,500 per ounce, which has led to a significant increase in pre-market trading for gold stocks in the U.S. [1] - Silver prices have also surged, reaching $40.86 per ounce, marking a fourteen-year high [1] - Concerns regarding the overall strength of U.S. institutions, in addition to the Federal Reserve's actions, are driving increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Company Performance - Harmony Gold (HIMY) saw a pre-market increase of over 7%, with a latest price of $13.280 and a daily increase of 5.31% [1] - Coeur Mining (CDE) experienced a pre-market rise of 4.5%, with a latest price of $13.150 and a daily increase of 4.70% [1] - New Gold (NGD) and DRDGOLD both rose over 3% in pre-market trading, with New Gold's latest price at $5.900 and a daily increase of 3.87% [1] - Other notable performers include Galiano Gold (GAU) with a pre-market increase of 3.69% and Equinox Gold (EQX) with a 3.20% rise [1]

Core Insights - Gold prices have surged past $3500, marking a significant milestone and attracting global attention from investors [1][3] - The rise in gold prices is driven by multiple factors, indicating a potential new era for gold investment [3] Group 1: Reasons Behind Gold Surge - Signal 1: Expectations of interest rate cuts in September are increasing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset [4] - Signal 2: Central banks are aggressively buying gold to mitigate dollar risks, providing strong support for gold prices [5] - Signal 3: The dollar is under short-term pressure due to trade tariffs, creating a divergence between gold prices and the dollar [6] - Signal 4: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the stalemate in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [7] - Signal 5: The rising investment demand for gold, coupled with increasing mining costs, is contributing to higher gold prices [8] Group 2: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Key Point 1: The relationship between the dollar and interest rates will be crucial in determining gold price trends [10] - Key Point 2: Continued strong buying by central banks could indicate that $3500 may not be the peak for gold prices [11] - Key Point 3: Monitoring fund flows and market sentiment, such as ETF holdings and investor enthusiasm, will be essential for assessing gold price stability [12] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The company offers tools for gold trading, enabling ordinary investors to capitalize on the current market conditions [13] - Features such as low spreads and dual trading systems enhance the trading experience for investors [14][15] - The company provides daily strategies and live market updates to guide investors in navigating the gold market [16]

Group 1 - The performance of gold stocks in the first half of 2025 has significantly improved, with several companies reporting substantial increases in net profit [2][5] - The international gold price has been rising, with COMEX gold futures reaching a record high of $3,557.1 per ounce on September 1, 2025, marking a nearly 35% increase year-to-date [2][4] - Domestic gold prices have also surged, with the Shanghai gold contract closing at 800.56 yuan per gram, reflecting an increase of over 28% since the beginning of the year [3][4] Group 2 - The rise in gold prices is primarily driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with a probability of a 25 basis point cut in September reaching 87.4% [4][5] - Global gold demand has increased significantly, with the World Gold Council reporting a 3% year-on-year increase in total demand to 1,249 tons in Q2 2025, and a 45% increase in value to $132 billion, a historical high [4][5] - Several organizations are optimistic about the future performance of gold prices, citing macroeconomic uncertainties and the safe-haven appeal of gold as key factors [5][6] Group 3 - The financial performance of gold companies has improved, with 12 gold stocks reporting year-on-year increases in net profit or turning profitable, including notable gains from companies like Western Gold and Shandong Gold [5][6] - Western Gold reported a net profit of 154 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a 131.94% increase year-on-year, achieving the highest profit for the same period since its listing [6] - Social security funds have shown interest in gold stocks, with five gold stocks receiving significant investments, totaling 3.312 billion yuan, indicating strong institutional support [6]

申银万国期货：当下金银整体或在降息临近以及特朗普干预美联储独立性下呈现偏强走势 申银万国期货表示，特朗普试图解雇美联储理事，挑战美联储独立性的行为令市场感到不安。美国地质 勘探局（USGS）提议将白银等六种矿产纳入2025年关键矿产清单，引发白银进口关税风险担忧。此前 杰克逊霍尔会议上鲍威尔表示风险的转变确实值得调整政策立场，被认为是较为鸽派的姿态，增强9月 降息预期，叠加7月非农数据不及预期，前值大幅下修，利好贵金属。当下美联储内部观点呈现分裂， 特朗普通过人事任命影响市场对美联储的预期，但在关税通胀压力下，9月或仍为谨慎降息姿态。而美 国7月通胀数据呈现反弹，近期美俄谈判释放的积极信号令地缘风险降温，一定程度约束黄金上行空 间。贸易谈判呈现多方进展，但整体贸易环境恶化，大而美法案落地继续推升美国财政赤字预期，中国 央行持续增持黄金，黄金方面长期驱动仍然有支撑。当下金银整体或在降息临近以及特朗普干预美联储 独立性下呈现偏强走势，市场聚焦本周非农数据。 宝城期货表示，金价在8月22日杰克逊霍尔会议后呈现上行态势，这很大程度上是由于美联储主席鲍威 尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上表现偏鸽推动的上涨。此外，美股呈现上行放缓态 ...