Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive in June, increasing by 0.1% year-on-year after four consecutive months of decline, primarily driven by a recovery in industrial consumer goods prices [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer demand [1][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, reflecting a broader trend of price reductions in various industrial sectors [1][4] Group 2 - The decrease in PPI is attributed to seasonal price declines in raw materials, increased green energy production leading to lower energy prices, and downward pressure on prices in export-oriented industries due to a slowing global trade environment [4][5] - The cumulative CPI for the first half of the year was -0.1%, indicating weak domestic price levels and insufficient consumer demand, which provides ample policy space for further monetary easing and fiscal stimulus [3][5] - The decline in industrial prices is exacerbated by overcapacity in several sectors, prompting discussions on capacity reduction as part of a new round of supply-side reforms [5]

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" trend is gaining momentum across various industries, including automotive, photovoltaic, cement, and steel, driven by ongoing policy efforts [2][4] - The photovoltaic sector has shown particularly strong performance, with both Hong Kong and A-shares in this sector seeing cumulative gains of over 5% in the last five trading days [2] - Key photovoltaic stocks, such as Yamaton and GCL-Poly, have experienced cumulative price increases exceeding 10% over the same period [2] Group 2 - The Chinese government has released multiple "anti-involution" policies this year, signaling a new round of supply-side reforms [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has emphasized the need to combat "price wars" in the automotive industry, with major automotive companies committing to limit payment terms to suppliers [5] - In the photovoltaic sector, a meeting was held to address low-price competition, and significant production cuts have been announced, indicating a shift towards healthier market dynamics [5] Group 3 - Various securities firms have differing views on the sustainability of the "anti-involution" trend, with some suggesting it may only provide short-term opportunities [6][7] - Industry self-discipline and production cuts are expected to help narrow supply-demand gaps in the short term, while the overall impact of the policies may take time to materialize [7] - The potential phases of the "anti-involution" trend include initial policy-driven expectations, followed by resource price increases, but the actual realization of these phases depends on effective policy implementation and capacity reduction [7]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-09 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 宏观情绪放缓，黑色震荡运行 钢材：宏观情绪放缓，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3063元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3191元/吨。现货方面，钢材现货成交整体一般，螺纹 相对偏弱，整体环比上一日略有好转，低价成交为主。昨日，全国建材成交9.6万吨。 综合来看：建材进入消费淡季，建材产量小幅回升，库存维持低位；板材产量环比小幅回升，整体利润尚可，目 前板材产销表现出较强韧性，市场担忧后期抢出口情绪退坡后影响板材消费，但是当前出口仍保持高位。中央财 经委开会讨论治理"无序竞争"和"落后产能有序退出"，市场情绪得到提振，但由于目前市场缺乏投机性需求，淡季 弱需求将持续压制钢材价格。 跨品种：无 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场谨慎观望，矿价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格震荡运行。截至收盘，铁矿石主力2509合约收于733元/吨，涨幅0.14%。现 货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格基本持稳，贸易商报价积极性一般，市场交投情绪偏不佳，钢厂采购多 以刚需为主。本期45 ...

| 可能做 | | | | 日時 策略参考 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 业分格号:F025192 | | | | 发布日期 2025/07 | | 行业板块 | 品种 | | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | 股指 | | | 短期内,国内外利多因素平平,市场情绪和流动性尚可,股指或 呈现偏强震荡格局。 | | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | | 否间。 | | | | 黄金 | | 震荡 | 市场不确定性仍存,金价短期料震荡为主。 | | | T 自银 | | 農汤 | 市场不确定性仍存,银价料震荡为主。 | | | | | | 美国非农大超预期,打压降息预期,叠加海外挤仓风险有所降 | | | | | 温. | 铜价存在回调风险。 | | | | | 看空 的。 | 美联储降息预期降温,叠加高价压制下游需求,铝价存在回落风 | | | 氧化铝 | | 辰川 | 国内反内卷政策提振供给侧改革预期,氧化铝价格企稳回升。 | | | | | | 宏观情绪改善下锌价企稳,基本面上累 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Rebound [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Fluctuation [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Fluctuation [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Soda Ash: Fluctuation [2] - SSE 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Fluctuation [2] - CSI 500 Index: Uptrend [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Uptrend [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Fluctuation [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Fluctuation [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High - level Fluctuation [4] - Silver: High - level Fluctuation [4] - Pulp: Fluctuation [6] - Logs: Fluctuation [6] - Soybean Oil: Fluctuation with a Slight Uptrend [6] - Palm Oil: Fluctuation with a Slight Uptrend [6] - Rapeseed Oil: Fluctuation with a Slight Uptrend [6] - Soybean Meal: Fluctuation with a Slight Downtrend [6] - Rapeseed Meal: Fluctuation with a Slight Downtrend [6] - No. 2 Soybeans: Fluctuation with a Slight Downtrend [6] - No. 1 Soybeans: Fluctuation with a Slight Downtrend [6] - Live Pigs: Rebound [7] - Rubber: Rebound [9] - PX: Wait - and - See [9] - PTA: Try Shorting at High Prices [9] - MEG: Try Shorting at High Prices [9] - PR: Wait - and - See [9] - PF: Wait - and - See [9] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities and financial products including the black industry, financial products, light industry products, agricultural products, and soft commodities. It provides investment ratings and market outlooks based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and international events [2][4][6][7][9] Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Short - term rebound due to emotional disturbances, with long - term supply increasing, demand remaining low, and port inventories entering a replenishment cycle. Focus on whether the 2509 contract can break through 740 yuan/ton [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Driven by supply - side reform news and Tangshan production restrictions, prices rise. Supply is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the trends of hot metal and coal - coke supply [2] - **Rolled Steel and Rebar**: "Anti - involution" boosts supply - side sentiment. In the off - season, demand shows a slight rebound, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The overall pattern is high in the first half and low in the second half of the year [2] - **Glass**: There is no substantial improvement in fundamentals. Speculative sentiment is ignited in some areas. In the long - term, demand is difficult to recover significantly. In the short - term, it rebounds slightly [2] - **Soda Ash**: In the long - term, the real estate industry is in an adjustment period, and glass demand is weak. In the short - term, the valuation is relatively low, and the price is affected by emotions [2] Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Data reflects China's economic resilience, and market risk - aversion sentiment eases. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Market interest rates are consolidating, and treasury bonds show a narrow - range rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [4] - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and multiple factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation data affect prices. Gold is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [4] Light Industry Products - **Pulp**: The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The cost support weakens, and prices are expected to fluctuate [6] - **Logs**: Spot prices are stable, supply pressure eases, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Attention should be paid to the impact of log futures delivery on prices [6] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: Malaysian palm oil production decreases, and exports are strong. Domestic oil inventories are rising, and oils and fats are expected to fluctuate slightly upward, with palm oil relatively stronger [6] - **Meal Products**: U.S. soybean production is good, and domestic soybean arrivals are large. Meal products are expected to fluctuate slightly downward [6] - **Live Pigs**: Supply is tightening, and prices are rising. Terminal procurement enthusiasm increases, and prices are expected to continue rising [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is affected by weather, and demand shows a structural recovery. Inventory is in a state of adjustment, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [9] - **PX**: Supply and demand are tight in the short - term, and prices follow oil prices [9] - **PTA**: In the medium - term, supply and demand weaken, and prices follow costs in the short - term [9] - **MEG**: Supply pressure increases, and prices are under pressure [9] - **PR and PF**: The market may be stable or weaken, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [9]

Summary of the Solar Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The solar industry is currently facing challenges related to supply-side reform and capacity clearance, particularly in the polysilicon segment, where prices are nearing the cash cost line of leading companies, leading to widespread industry losses [1][13] - The market has divergent views on solar policies, particularly regarding their effectiveness, the definition of minimum cost pricing, and execution methods, which has resulted in varied outlooks for the future [1][4][5] Key Points and Arguments - The future development of the solar industry depends on the implementation of supply-side optimization measures. The government has shown determination to push reforms, but specific implementation details remain uncertain, necessitating close attention to policy developments to adjust investment strategies [1][6] - Investment opportunities in the solar sector are expected to arise post-policy implementation, focusing on financially healthy companies such as Foster and Sungrow, as well as companies related to silver-free technology and integrated firms [1][10][12] - Global solar installation growth is projected to maintain a rate of 15% to 20% until 2030, driven by increasing global electricity demand and improved supply-demand relationships, indicating a long-term optimistic outlook [1][12] Market Dynamics - The solar sector is currently experiencing a supply surplus, with polysilicon prices not rebounding despite a surge in downstream component prices due to installation demand in early 2025. This has led to a situation where polysilicon inventory remains high, while silicon wafer and battery cell inventories are relatively healthy [1][20][19] - The price-to-book ratio (PB) of the solar industry is at a historical low, suggesting potential for recovery as supply-demand balance is restored and policies limit capacity expansion. A rebound in polysilicon prices could significantly improve manufacturers' profitability [1][21][30] Investment Opportunities - Current investment opportunities in the solar sector include: 1. **Financially Healthy Companies**: Companies like Foster and Sungrow, which have solid financials, are easier to invest in from a secondary market perspective [10] 2. **New Technology Firms**: Companies involved in silver-free technology are worth monitoring for potential higher elasticity [10] 3. **Integrated Companies**: These firms may offer greater elasticity due to their financial health [11] - The market is currently characterized by limited institutional holdings, particularly in key stocks like Sungrow, indicating potential for growth as policies are implemented [3][17] Challenges and Divergences - The main challenges facing the solar industry include: 1. **Supply-Demand Imbalance**: Despite discussions on industry self-discipline and policies, the fundamental supply-demand imbalance remains unresolved [2][8] 2. **Policy Effectiveness**: There is skepticism regarding whether policies can effectively address supply-side issues, with significant uncertainty surrounding the execution of legal provisions related to minimum cost pricing [4][9] 3. **Market Price Definition**: Disagreements on how to define market prices and assess profit margins add to the uncertainty [9] Future Outlook - The solar industry is expected to undergo a cyclical recovery, with potential for significant growth driven by supply-side reforms, technological advancements, and changing market demands. The focus should be on identifying financially sound companies and new technologies that can capitalize on these trends [25][29] - Historical patterns indicate that the solar industry has experienced significant downturns due to external factors, but the current landscape suggests that with proper adjustments, the industry can rebound effectively [26][27] Conclusion - The solar industry is at a critical juncture, with potential for recovery and growth contingent on effective policy implementation and market adjustments. Investors are advised to remain vigilant regarding policy developments and to focus on companies with strong financials and innovative technologies to maximize returns in the evolving market landscape [31]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the "anti-involution" policy in China, focusing on structural adjustments aimed at increasing the proportion of high-quality supply to achieve industrial upgrades, contrasting with the 2016 policies targeting cyclical supply-demand imbalances in the steel and coal industries [1][6][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Anti-Involution Policy Goals**: The policy aims to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, enhance product quality, and facilitate the orderly exit of outdated production capacity to achieve high-quality development through technological upgrades [2][5]. - **Electricity Consumption vs. Industrial Value Added**: In 2023-2024, China's industrial electricity consumption is expected to grow faster than industrial value added, indicating a slowdown in investment and a necessary capacity clearance [11]. - **Wind Power Sector**: The wind power sector is benefiting from stabilized bidding prices and increased demand, with private companies showing significant profit recovery potential if strict cost control measures are implemented [3][21]. - **Copper Smelting Industry Challenges**: The copper smelting industry faces severe raw material shortages, with over 80% reliance on imports. The TC price is currently negative, indicating unsustainable conditions that may improve with industry consolidation [34]. - **Pig Farming Industry**: The pig farming sector is under pressure from CPI and capacity recovery issues, with policies aimed at controlling sow inventory to stabilize prices [3][39]. Additional Important Content - **New Anti-Unfair Competition Law**: The revised law includes provisions to combat involution-style competition, prohibiting illegal subsidies from local governments and enhancing regulation of low-quality products [7]. - **Differences from Previous Policies**: The current anti-involution policy differs from the 2016 supply-side reforms by focusing on structural quality improvements rather than merely reducing total capacity [6][15]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The conference highlights potential investment opportunities in sectors like wind power, where companies like Goldwind Technology and Yunda shares are recommended due to their cost advantages and recovery potential [21]. - **Challenges in the Photovoltaic Industry**: The photovoltaic sector faces challenges such as oversupply in the silicon material segment and financial pressures on companies, necessitating regulatory measures against low-cost sales [16][17]. - **Future of the Construction Materials Sector**: The construction materials sector, particularly in waterproofing and cement, is expected to see consolidation and price increases as inefficient players exit the market [26][29]. Conclusion - The anti-involution policy is set to reshape various industries in China, focusing on quality and efficiency rather than sheer output. Key sectors such as wind power, copper smelting, and the pig farming industry are highlighted for their unique challenges and opportunities in this evolving landscape.

Summary of Glass Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The float glass industry is currently facing significant challenges, with prices continuously declining and approaching or falling below the cost line for some companies, particularly in Hubei where prices are below 1,000 RMB/ton [1][3][21] - The overall industry is experiencing over 80% losses, leading to tight cash flow and increased risk of production halts [1][6][21] - Real estate demand has drastically decreased to only 30% of 2020 levels, while float glass production capacity has only decreased by 8%, highlighting a severe supply-demand imbalance [1][5][6] Key Points and Arguments - **Production Capacity and Costs**: The high cost of cold repairs for float glass production lines (60-100 million RMB) discourages companies from halting production, despite the expectation of a seasonal market improvement in September and October [1][4] - **Environmental Policies**: The effectiveness of environmental policies on supply-side reforms has diminished, as companies have already invested heavily in compliance, and new requirements are increasing operational costs without effectively reducing capacity [1][10][12] - **Market Dynamics**: The float glass market is expected to undergo a natural clearing process through price wars and company losses if no effective interventions are made, with a prediction of numerous production line shutdowns in the next 3-6 months [1][15][27] - **Future Outlook**: If market clearing occurs smoothly, the glass market may gradually recover to above cost levels by the second half of next year, but high profitability is not anticipated [2][27] Additional Important Insights - **Inventory Levels**: Despite the drop in real estate demand, there has not been a severe inventory accumulation, indicating that while supply-demand issues are prominent, the pressure on inventory has not reached extreme levels [7] - **Challenges in the Industry**: The industry is grappling with high natural gas and petroleum coke prices, with over 80% of companies currently operating at a loss, leading to potential production halts [6][21] - **Impact of Government Policies**: The government's push for unified gas stations and stricter environmental regulations is expected to increase operational costs, potentially leading to market exits for less resilient companies [12][14] - **Long-term Industry Changes**: The float glass industry is expected to undergo a natural selection process, with weaker companies exiting the market, while stronger firms may consolidate through acquisitions and technological upgrades [24][25] Conclusion The float glass industry is currently in a precarious state, with significant overcapacity, declining prices, and a challenging economic environment. The effectiveness of government interventions and the industry's ability to adapt will be crucial in determining the future landscape of the market.

大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘继续回落，回到20均线以下运行。产业链上，矿价小幅回落，矿山继续挺价，镍铁价 格弱稳，成本线重心下降。不锈钢交易所仓单继续流出，7、8月是传统消费淡季，需求仍不佳。新能源 汽车产销数据较好，有利于镍的需求提升，但同时要注意新能源车的供给侧改革。近期镍价偏强运行主 要还是宏观驱动，但宏观面上不确定性较大，谨慎对待。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货121100，基差730，偏多 3、库存：LME库存202620，+150，上交所仓单20833，+1，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向下，中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2508：震荡偏弱运行。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年7月9日 ...

专题报告 2025-07-09 "反内卷"及其对黑色板块影响 报告要点： 我们认为本轮"反内卷"并非是简单的再来一次"供给侧改革"，其与 2016 年附近的"供给侧 改革"在面临的主要矛盾上存在显著差异。前者主要解决的是无序价格战、不正当竞争、地方 保护主义等问题，为的是"高质量发展"；后者则主要聚焦上游原材料的"过剩产能"问题。 此外，二者在聚焦的产业上也明显不同。前者聚焦光伏、锂电池、新能源汽车、电商平台等新 兴行业；后者则着力于钢铁、煤炭等传统的上游行业。 对于黑色板块而言，我们认为当前阶段，"反内卷"情绪的影响大于实质。后续影响是否会出 现实质化，取决于需求端政策的发力情况。但在短期预期难以证伪的情况下，叠加 7 月份宏观 事件的频繁扰动，预计盘面价格波动将加剧，建议谨慎参与。 陈张滢 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 黑色金属研究 | 黑色 "反内卷"及其对黑色板块影响 2025 年 7 月 1 日，中央财经委员会第六次会议在京召开，会议研究了纵深推进全国统一大市 场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题。 " ...