A-Share Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall increase, with small-cap stocks showing significant gains while mid and large-cap value stocks faced pressure. The CSI 2000 index rose by 2.32%, and the ChiNext index increased by 2.36%, while the SSE 50 index only saw a modest rise of 0.60%. The average daily trading volume reached 1.50 trillion, a week-on-week increase of 3.80% [5][6]. - The real estate sector saw a notable increase of 6.06%, with steel rising by 3.90%, building materials by 3.07%, and construction by 2.71%. The recent "anti-involution" policies have raised expectations for production limits, leading to a continuation of strong performance in certain cyclical sectors. Additionally, there has been an acceleration in debt restructuring among real estate companies, with several debt resolution plans approved, significantly reducing risks in the real estate sector [5][6]. Market Outlook - Compared to the supply-side reforms of 2015, the current "anti-involution" policy is expected to be less aggressive, with the overall capacity reduction likely to be milder. The focus of the current policies is anticipated to be primarily on the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic sectors, with implications for other industries. Despite the recent increase in risk appetite due to policy expectations, there remains considerable pressure on overall market profitability in the second half of the year, necessitating caution regarding potential policy disappointments leading to market corrections [6]. Hong Kong Market Overview - The Hong Kong market showed signs of recovery, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rising by 0.91% and the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 0.62%. The industrial and financial sectors performed well, while the materials sector experienced significant declines [7]. - The recovery in the Hong Kong market was supported by expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which positively impacted the Hong Kong dollar's liabilities. Additionally, the appreciation of the Renminbi, influenced by the interest rate cut expectations and the "Big and Beautiful" legislation, contributed to the rise in Hong Kong stocks [7]. Future Expectations - Looking ahead, the "Big and Beautiful" legislation has raised the debt ceiling, and the high yield characteristics of U.S. Treasuries are expected to reduce uncertainties surrounding Trump, allowing international capital inflows to effectively offset liquidity constraints from increased borrowing. Therefore, the short to medium-term risk of a "black swan" event related to U.S. Treasuries has decreased. On the asset side, the AI capital expenditure wave is likely to favor leading technology stocks in Hong Kong, with high demand for upstream computing power and servers expected to continue into the second half of the year, providing strong earnings support for the Hang Seng Technology sector [7].

Core Viewpoint - Tongwei Co., Ltd. has successfully completed a strategic capital increase of 4.916 billion yuan for its subsidiary, Sichuan Yongxiang Co., Ltd., attracting 11 investment institutions, including several with state-owned backgrounds, despite the amount being half of the previously estimated scale [1][4]. Group 1: Capital Increase Details - The total capital increase amount is approximately 4.916 billion yuan, which is the largest single private equity financing amount disclosed in Sichuan Province for 2025 [3][4]. - After the capital increase, Tongwei's shareholding in Yongxiang has been diluted to 84.60%, while new investors hold a combined 15.40% [2][3]. - The funds from this capital increase will be used to repay bank loans and supplement working capital for Yongxiang and its subsidiaries [4]. Group 2: Company Performance and Market Context - Yongxiang Co., Ltd. has a production capacity of over 900,000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon and has ranked first globally in market share and shipment volume since 2021 [5]. - In 2023, Yongxiang achieved a revenue of 45.03 billion yuan and a net profit of 15.18 billion yuan, but faced a net loss of nearly 1 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 due to a downturn in the photovoltaic industry [5]. - Analysts suggest that the financing indicates that leading companies in the photovoltaic sector can endure longer despite the industry's challenges, but it does not change the overall trend of the market [5]. Group 3: Analyst Perspectives - Citigroup upgraded Tongwei's rating from "Sell" to "Buy," raising the target price from 14 yuan to 25 yuan, anticipating benefits from supply-side reforms that will reduce excess industry capacity [6]. - The analyst believes Tongwei is well-positioned to capitalize on potential benefits from supply-side reforms in the polysilicon production sector, enhancing its competitive cost structure [6].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight increase today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.01% to 3510.18 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.61% and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.80% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 218 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The market sentiment appears to be strong in the short term, with over 2900 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance - Leading sectors today included securities, non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and steel, while financials, telecommunications, photovoltaics, and dividends lagged [1] - The market showed a preference for small-cap stocks over large-cap stocks, with growth stocks outperforming value stocks [1] Policy Insights - The "anti-involution" theme is identified as a potential main line for the second half of the year, with a focus on upstream sectors leading the way [3][4] - Recent meetings emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and promote the exit of backward production capacity, reminiscent of the supply-side reforms of 2015 [3][4] - The ongoing decline in PPI has drawn policy attention, suggesting potential supply-side adjustments in sectors like steel, coal, and cement [3] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The supply-demand mismatch in upstream resource products is significant, leading to price declines as firms engage in price competition [4][6] - Current demand conditions are similar to those in July of the previous year, but prices have adjusted downward, aligning better with supply-demand dynamics [6] - The performance of consumer goods differs, with companies increasingly adopting price reductions to boost sales volumes [6][7] Historical Context - Historical cases of supply-side contraction have shown that market reactions often lag behind policy announcements, with stock prices typically responding after initial skepticism [7][9] - Past supply-side reforms have led to significant price increases in commodities, although demand-side pressures remain a concern [9][12] International Factors - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with recent non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations, which has tempered interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve [12][13] - The ongoing trade negotiations and tariff strategies under the Trump administration are expected to create uncertainty in the market [15][16]

自2024年7月政治局会议提出防止"内卷式"恶性竞争，至2025年7月1日中央财经委员会正式提出依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，推动 落后产能有序退出，反内卷相关政策是在不断推进加强的。当前外有关税冲击、出口环境恶劣，加剧国内产能过剩；内有多行业长期有 规模无利润，行业生态日益恶劣，已陷入低价通缩循环。因此治理无序竞争、调整产能结构、促进产业升级的反内卷势在必行。特别是 光伏、汽车、钢铁等重点行业。 此次会议研讨后，我们认为反内卷影响周期长，至少是下半年一条交易主线，部分板块存在投资机会。商品主要关注多晶硅，股票关注 通威和隆基，同时股指300也是较好的标的。 具体商品来看： 以下文章来源于混沌天成研究 ，作者能化组 混沌天成研究 . 混沌天成研究院官方公众号。基于混沌天成的地方触角和国际化架构，我们致力于打造一家草根信息与高科技结合，中国国情和国际视野兼备的商品期货 和全球宏观研究院。 来源 | 混沌天成研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 观点概述 进入7月，"反内卷"新一轮供给侧改革论调，已开始成为近期商品交易的一大主线。此轮反内卷与以往有何不同，是否将是下半年的投资 主线，各板块又存在哪些投资机 ...

Core Insights - The rise of "accompanying climbing" services reflects a new definition of travel experiences among younger consumers, emphasizing emotional value and personalized support over traditional guiding roles [1][2][3] - The growth in visitor numbers at Wugong Mountain is linked to the younger demographic becoming the main force in the tourism market, seeking both challenge and social companionship [2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In June alone, the team led by Zhu Jianfeng completed 29 days of accompanying climbing orders, indicating a surge in demand for this service [1] - Wugong Mountain received 2.6285 million visitors in the first half of the year, with an increasing number of young people opting for emotional support services [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The majority of "accompanying climbing" services are currently operated individually, leading to non-standardized transactions that pose various risks [2] - There is a need for improved institutional design to regulate market behavior, including establishing qualifications, service standards, and safety guarantees for practitioners [2] Group 3: Service Evolution - The emergence of "accompanying climbing" services fills a gap between traditional guiding and self-guided experiences, offering a third option that combines exploration freedom with necessary professional support [3] - Understanding the underlying emotional value demands from tourists can lead to a transformation in the tourism industry from merely providing scenery to offering meaningful experiences [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic, indicating a potential recovery in profitability and valuation levels for the steel industry due to the "anti-involution" policy [1][4]. Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy aims to shift the steel industry from low-cost homogeneous competition to high-end differentiated competition, which is expected to lead to a reversal in industry profitability and valuation levels [1][4]. - The steel industry is currently facing weak demand, with prices and profit levels declining. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for black metal smelting and rolling industries has dropped to 89.8, the lowest among five sub-industries [2][4]. - The current state of the steel industry shows a divergence in profitability between upstream and midstream sectors, with upstream mining absorbing most of the industry's profits [2][4]. Summary by Sections Current Industry Status - The steel industry is experiencing weak demand, with PPI for black metal smelting and rolling industries at 89.8, indicating a decline in prices and profits [2]. - The gross profit margin for black metal smelting and rolling industries is only 5.48%, significantly lower than the 19.57% margin for black metal mining [2]. Comparison with 2015 Supply-Side Reform - The supply-demand situation in the steel industry has improved compared to 2015, with a reduction in the degree of supply surplus [3][4]. - The current "anti-involution" policy is less administratively forceful than the 2015 supply-side reforms, which were primarily focused on eliminating outdated production capacity [3]. Policy Impact and Guidance - The "anti-involution" policy aims to prevent homogeneous competition and emphasizes the need for market mechanisms and industry self-regulation to optimize and upgrade production capacity [4]. - The policy includes stricter standards for capacity elimination and encourages the adoption of green and intelligent production methods [5]. Inventory and Profitability Outlook - The steel inventory is expected to rise from the bottom, with significant reductions in social inventory levels for rebar and wire rod [6]. - The industry's return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) have declined due to the real estate market downturn, but the "anti-involution" policy may help restore market sentiment and improve profitability [6]. Valuation Observations - The current median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the steel industry is 35.51X, indicating potential for valuation recovery as supply-demand structures improve [6].

Report Summary Overall Market Performance - As of July 11, 2025, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performances. Coking coal rose over 3%, coke and glass rose over 2%, while aluminum oxide fell over 2%. Regarding stock index futures, CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) rose 1.25%. In terms of capital flow, CSI 1000 2509 had an inflow of 4.43 billion, while Shanghai Gold 2510 had an outflow of 435 million [7]. Industry - Specific Analysis Coking Coal - The price of coking coal opened high and strengthened during the day. The mainstream price in the Shanxi market was 970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Due to the closure of the Sino - Mongolian border during Mongolia's National Naadam Festival and the impact of supply - side reforms, the supply pressure eased. Coke enterprises proposed a price increase, and the short - term market remained strong [3]. Crude Oil - The easing of Middle East geopolitical risks reduced concerns about supply disruptions. OPEC + agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. OPEC also lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years. The market was expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation and the outcome of trade negotiations [4][5]. Copper - Copper opened high and weakened during the day. Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting from August 1. Supply was expected to improve, and demand was expected to enter the off - season. The market was bearish in the short term, and prices were expected to be volatile [9]. Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium opened high and closed down after fluctuations. The spot price continued to rise, but the market deviated from the fundamental logic. Supply was abundant, and the market was mainly affected by news and macro - sentiment. The price was expected to be high and volatile, and there was a risk of a sharp decline [10][11]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate increased, while the downstream construction rate mostly decreased. The inventory was at a low level. With the approaching peak season and the narrowing of the price range of crude oil, it was recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [12]. PP (Polypropylene) - The downstream开工率 of PP decreased, and the production rate of enterprises increased. The market was affected by tariffs and the expected slowdown of global oil demand. Supply pressure was relieved to some extent, but demand recovery was slow. The price was expected to fluctuate at a low level [14]. Plastic - The production rate of plastic increased, while the downstream开工率 decreased. The market was affected by tariffs and the situation of global oil demand. Although the cost might decrease, demand recovery was slow, and the price was expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. PVC - The PVC production rate decreased, and the downstream开工率 was low. Export was restricted, and inventory was high. The market was affected by the real - estate situation and new production capacity. The price was expected to fluctuate at a low level [18]. Soybean Oil - The price of soybean oil showed a high - opening and volatile trend, approaching the 8000 - yuan/ton pressure level. Supply was abundant, and demand increased recently. The price was expected to be volatile and strong, but the upside was limited [19]. Soybean Meal - The price of soybean meal rose. Supply was under pressure due to high domestic oil - mill operating rates, and demand improved slightly. The price was affected by factors such as US soybean production, trade policies, and livestock farming. It was necessary to pay attention to relevant factors [21]. Rebar - Rebar showed a strong - oscillating trend. Supply and demand were both weak, with production decreasing and demand in the seasonal off - season. Inventory was still high, but cost support was strong. The price was expected to remain strong in the short term [23]. Hot Rolled Coil - Hot rolled coil showed a strong - oscillating trend with "high - rising and falling back". Supply and demand both decreased, and inventory increased slightly. The market was affected by policies and raw - material prices. The price was expected to remain strong in the short term [24][25]. Urea - The urea price closed down after fluctuations. Production was stable, and demand was weak in the industrial sector but had local increases in the agricultural sector. Inventory decreased continuously. The price was expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to export policies [26].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcements from the Central Financial Committee regarding the governance of low-price disorderly competition and the orderly exit of backward production capacity have reignited optimism in the steel industry, leading to price increases in various steel products and stocks [1][2][6]. Group 1: Supply-Side Reform Restart - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting emphasized the need to promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, marking the beginning of a new round of supply-side reform [2][3]. - The focus of the reform includes promoting high-quality production capacity and the consolidation of the industry through mergers and acquisitions [2][3]. - A joint initiative from 33 construction companies aims to combat "involution" in the industry, indicating a collective push for transformation [2]. Group 2: Steel Industry Dynamics - The China Iron and Steel Association has been actively promoting self-discipline among major steel companies to control production and reduce inventory [3][4]. - Major steel companies like China Baowu and Ansteel have undergone multiple rounds of restructuring, contributing to an increase in industry concentration from 41.4% in 2021 to 42% in 2024 [3]. - Current data indicates that while total crude steel capacity is not excessively overbuilt, actual production often exceeds designed capacity, leading to a higher overcapacity ratio [4]. Group 3: Cautious Optimism for Steel Prices - The phenomenon of "involution" in the steel industry is characterized by price competition leading to overall profit decline and resource wastage [5]. - The challenges facing the steel market are more complex than in previous cycles, with structural changes in demand and a weak real estate market limiting the potential for a repeat of past bullish trends [7]. - Despite the current low price levels of steel, the overall market environment is better than in 2015, but significant improvements in supply-demand dynamics are unlikely, necessitating close attention to policy implementation [7].

Group 1 - The current spot price of rebar in China is 3296.00 CNY/ton, which is 163.00 CNY/ton higher than the futures main price of 3133.00 CNY/ton as of July 11 [1] - On July 11, the futures market closed with the main rebar contract at 3133.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.10% increase, with a daily trading volume of 1,654,545 contracts [2] - As of the week ending July 10, rebar production decreased to 2.1666 million tons, down by 44,200 tons or 2% from the previous week, while apparent demand fell to 2.215 million tons, a decrease of 33,700 tons or 1.50% [3] Group 2 - As of July 11, the warehouse receipts for rebar futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 14,567 tons to 69,192 tons compared to the previous trading day [4] - According to Hualian Futures research, the supply and demand for rebar are both weak, with a slight decrease in production and a marginal decline in demand, while inventory continues to show a slight reduction [5] - Seasonal factors are expected to significantly impact steel demand, leading to limited upward momentum in steel prices despite a short-term market sentiment recovery due to supply-side reform expectations [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant growth and investment interest in the photovoltaic ETF (159857), which has seen a net subscription of 73 million shares, leading the category in the Shenzhen market [3] - The photovoltaic ETF (159857) has reached a new high in scale at 2.324 billion yuan, with a notable increase of 79.7 million shares over the past six months [3] - In the last ten trading days, the photovoltaic ETF (159857) has attracted a total of 23.45 million yuan in inflows, indicating strong market interest [3] Group 2 - Guosen Securities predicts that the photovoltaic industry will undergo necessary consolidation and is expected to enter a stable development phase by 2027, with significant advantages in the silicon material segment [4] - The price of polysilicon has risen sharply to 45,000-50,000 yuan per ton, with some companies recovering profitability, suggesting a positive trend in the industry [4] - The photovoltaic industry is currently experiencing a cautious approach from power investment companies due to uncertainties in electricity prices and demand, raising questions about the sustainability of previous high growth rates [4] Group 3 - The overall trend in the photovoltaic industry post-June 1 indicates a market intervention to accelerate capacity clearance, despite weak demand [5] - Recent price increases in the capital and spot markets reflect a market response to policy interventions aimed at achieving profitability above costs [5] - The 136th document's impact on the market suggests a potential decrease in future electricity prices, indicating a need for companies to lower total investment costs [5] Group 4 - There are differing opinions on future trends, with one view suggesting that state intervention can quickly achieve supply-side reforms and capacity clearance, while another emphasizes the necessity of market-driven sales and profits [6] - The photovoltaic ETF closely tracks the CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index, which is currently at a historical low valuation with a price-to-book ratio of 1.9, presenting a compelling investment opportunity [6] - The CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index includes up to 50 representative listed companies from the photovoltaic industry chain, reflecting the overall performance of these securities [6]