Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's strategy of imposing tariffs is increasingly ineffective, as evidenced by the lack of substantial trade agreements and the growing resistance from trade partners [2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Strategy - The Trump administration announced new tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% on various trade partners, extending the deadline for "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1 [1][2]. - Despite threats, the U.S. has only reached framework agreements with the UK and Vietnam, failing to secure comprehensive trade deals [2][3]. - The U.S. is perceived to be losing its negotiating power, with countries like Japan and Canada responding to tariff threats with their own countermeasures [2][3]. Group 2: Global Economic Resilience - Countries are enhancing their economic resilience through infrastructure improvements and industry competitiveness to counter U.S. tariff pressures [3][4]. - Germany has approved a €460 billion corporate tax reduction plan and a €500 billion public investment initiative to stimulate its economy [3]. - Japan has introduced measures to support corporate financing and consumer spending, while also providing energy subsidies [3]. Group 3: Trade Diversification Efforts - Many countries are seeking new trade partnerships to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, leading to a more diversified international trade landscape [6][7]. - The EU is actively pursuing free trade agreements with various countries, including those in the Global South, to strengthen its trade network [6][7]. - ASEAN countries are focusing on regional economic integration and leveraging multilateral agreements to counteract tariff impacts [6][7]. Group 4: Responses from Emerging Markets - Emerging markets like Malaysia and Brazil are resisting U.S. pressure by refusing to compromise on national interests and implementing their own industrial plans [3][5]. - Brazil's government is advancing a "New Industrial Plan" to enhance manufacturing competitiveness through financing and tax incentives [5]. - African nations are accelerating regional market integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement to build resilience against global trade shocks [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decision by China to consider resuming imports of Japanese Wagyu beef and certain seafood is a strategic response to the trade pressures created by U.S. tariffs under President Trump, aiming to strengthen economic ties between China and Japan while diversifying trade routes [3][12]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - The U.S. tariffs imposed by Trump since 2018 have significantly impacted trade flows, prompting countries like China and Japan to seek new partnerships and adjust their trade strategies [3][9]. - The trade relationship between China and Japan has been evolving, with the trade volume surpassing $300 billion in 2024, indicating a growing economic interdependence [9]. Group 2: Agricultural Imports - China is considering lifting a 24-year ban on Japanese Wagyu beef imports, a move influenced by a 2019 agreement on animal health and quarantine cooperation [4][5]. - The resumption of Wagyu beef imports is expected to benefit both Chinese consumers, who seek high-quality meat options, and Japanese farmers, who have faced economic challenges [5][12]. Group 3: Seafood Imports - China plans to partially lift the ban on Japanese seafood imports, excluding products from the Fukushima region due to safety concerns stemming from the 2011 nuclear disaster [5][9]. - This decision is aimed at helping Japanese fishermen who have struggled with reduced access to the U.S. market due to tariffs, while also catering to the growing demand for seafood in China [5][9]. Group 4: Future Cooperation - The collaboration between China and Japan is expected to extend beyond beef and seafood, with potential synergies in technology, renewable energy, and infrastructure development [9][10]. - The ongoing trade adjustments may lead to a more diversified global trade landscape, reducing reliance on the U.S. market and fostering regional economic stability [10][12].

展望本周，市场关注焦点依然集中在全球地缘局势及贸易摩擦进展方面，此外，多位美联储官员对货币 政策的表态也将对黄金本周行情走势产生一定影响。从技术面来看，现货金价自上周初经大幅向下调整 后，周终收盘拉回3200美元／盎司整数关口之上，表明黄金的底部买盘较为强劲，本周有进一步向上反 弹空间。短线关注3250美元／盎司一线多空争夺情况，如有效上破，上看3280~3300美元／盎司区间压 力；下方关注3200~3190美元／盎司区域支撑力度。 （文章来源：新华财经） 不过，尽管中美贸易暂时敲定了协议，但可以预见的是，特朗普政府一贯的"美国优先"贸易保护主义政 策将继续对全球政经秩序造成持续困扰，美元信用也将持续衰落并对美国自身造成更大反噬。与此同 时，美联储长期维持高利率环境已严重削弱了其国内消费意愿，今年第一季度经济已萎缩0.3%。预计 接下来特朗普政府与美联储围绕降息展开的博弈将不可避免的再度升级，市场对美国经济前景担忧将进 一步加剧。 对于黄金市场而言，在全球政经格局加速重构的大背景下，地缘风险不定、美元美债信用下降、全球央 行持续增持黄金，对黄金的需求将长期保持旺盛，金价后市上升空间依然可期。 新华财经北京5 ...

Core Viewpoint - China has shifted from a passive defensive strategy in international trade to an active offensive approach, responding decisively to unfair treatment and trade pressures from multiple countries [1][3][22]. Trade Measures - On July 1, China announced anti-dumping duties on stainless steel products imported from 30 countries, including the EU, Indonesia, and South Korea [4][5]. - The move is seen as a direct response to previous trade actions against China, such as the EU's imposition of a 13.2% anti-dumping duty on Chinese tinplate products [5][15]. Strategic Implications - The decision to impose tariffs on multiple countries simultaneously signals a significant change in China's role in international trade, indicating a transition to a more assertive stance [3][22]. - China is leveraging its strong industrial base in stainless steel production, which accounts for a substantial portion of the global market, to enhance domestic competitiveness [15][18]. Market Dynamics - The tariffs are designed to apply differentiated rates, particularly targeting South Korean companies, which may face punitive tariffs as high as 103.1%, while leaving some room for cooperation [18]. - Countries like Indonesia, which rely on their natural resources, are attempting to use their position to gain political leverage, but they may underestimate China's control over critical resources like nickel [10][19]. Global Reactions - The EU and UK are facing significant supply chain risks due to China's actions, prompting a reevaluation of their trade relationships with China [18]. - South Korean companies are experiencing stock declines and are considering relocating operations to mitigate risks associated with China's trade policies [18]. U.S.-China Relations - The U.S. has notably been excluded from the recent tariff list, indicating a potential shift in its approach towards China, as evidenced by recent actions to ease restrictions on exports to China [5][19][21]. - This strategic omission suggests that the U.S. may be seeking to improve relations with China, recognizing the importance of cooperation in the context of global supply chains [19][21].

Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a 17.09% anti-dumping tariff on most fresh tomato imports from Mexico, which accounts for 72% of the total supply in the U.S. market, with approximately 90% of these imports coming from Mexico [1][3][4] - The tariff is expected to significantly impact the tomato trade between the U.S. and Mexico, despite being lower than the previously threatened 21% by the Trump administration [1][4] - The U.S. fresh tomato market is heavily reliant on imports, with California and Florida being the main production areas, but facing limitations due to various factors [3][4] Trade Impact - The new tariff will impose a substantial cost on U.S. fresh tomato traders, whose profit margins typically range from 10% to 20%, potentially leading to reduced margins or losses for smaller traders [1][4] - The increase in tariffs may lead to a short-term supply shortage and rising consumer prices for fresh tomatoes in the U.S. market [1][4] Economic Effects - The termination of the tomato suspension agreement could have widespread economic implications, affecting agriculture, warehousing, logistics, grocery, and restaurant industries, with estimates suggesting a potential 10% increase in tomato prices and a 5% decrease in demand [5][6] - The Mexican tomato imports contribute approximately 50,000 jobs and generate $8.3 billion in economic benefits in the U.S. [5] Responses from Stakeholders - Some large food companies are opting to use domestically sourced tomatoes to avoid tariff pressures, while smaller businesses express concerns about potential price increases leading to financial difficulties [6][7] - The Mexican government has strongly opposed the U.S. tariff, claiming it is politically motivated and unfair, and has indicated potential retaliatory measures against U.S. agricultural products [6][7][8] Historical Context - The U.S. has a long history of trade disputes regarding tomatoes with Mexico, dating back to the early 1990s, with the most recent agreement being renegotiated in 2019 [3][4]

Key Points - Gold prices remained volatile last week, with London spot gold closing at $3,355 per ounce (up 0.5% week-on-week) and domestic AU9999 gold at 770 yuan per gram (down 0.3% week-on-week) [1] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs remains high, as President Trump announced increased tariffs on several countries but postponed implementation until August 1. Additionally, a 50% tariff on imported copper will take effect in August [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the eighth consecutive month, reaching 73.9 million ounces (approximately 2,298.55 tons) by the end of June, reflecting the strategic importance of gold as a "non-credit asset" in the global monetary system [1] - Global gold ETF investment demand remains strong, with $38 billion inflows in the first half of the year, marking the strongest semi-annual performance since the first half of 2020. All regions saw inflows, with North American and European investors leading the trend [1] - The outlook for gold remains positive amid U.S. trade protectionism and potential tariff fluctuations, as well as ongoing central bank gold purchases due to U.S. debt and dollar credit concerns [2] - Key signals to watch for gold ETFs in the coming week include trade negotiations and tariff developments, as well as U.S. inflation data for June [3]

据北京日报客户端报道，特朗普在社交媒体上宣布对巴西征收50%关税后，巴西总统卢拉立即反击："巴西不会接受任何人的威胁或干涉。" 特朗普在公开信中提出两个核心指控：美巴存在"非常不公平的贸易关系"导致美国贸易逆差；巴西对前总统博索纳罗的司法调查是"政治迫害"。 巴西政府立即用数据反击。卢拉指出："美国政府自身的统计数据显示，过去15年美国对巴西的货物和服务贸易存在约4100亿美元的顺差。" 巴西副总统兼发展、工业、贸易和服务部长热拉尔多·阿尔克明进一步补充关键事实：2024年美国对巴西贸易顺差达74亿美元；80%的美国对巴出 口商品享受零关税待遇。 "我看不出有任何理由要对巴西提高关税。巴西不是美国的问题。"阿尔克明在记者会上直言，"在美国对我们出口的产品中，十中有八都是零关税 的，不需要缴税。" 美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"发布致巴西总统卢拉的公开信，宣布自8月1日起对所有巴西输美商品征收50%关税，创下美国对单一 国家征税税率的历史峰值。 美国总统特朗普（资料图） 理由直指巴西"破坏贸易平衡"及干涉美国内政——要求巴西停止对前总统博索纳罗的司法审判。 消息一出，巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率应声下跌近3% ...

有分析人士指出，和其他收到征税函的国家不同，巴西去年对美国并非贸易逆差，特朗普祭出关税大棒，或是利用关税威胁试图改变巴西的内政决定，属于 典型的歧视性关税。 对于关税的手腕以及带来的收益，特朗普本人则十分满意。他曾豪言，关税正在让美国繁荣，大量新工厂、新工作岗位和数万亿美元的投资涌入美国。 当地时间7月13日，美国总统特朗普又表示，美国上月通过关税政策获得250亿美元收入，主要来自汽车、铝、钢和木材等商品，并强调"这仅仅是个开始"。 特朗普还称美国关税收入将在未来一个月内达到"强劲水平"。 关税冲击波还在持续，特朗普把矛头直指另一个大国——俄罗斯。 当地时间7月14日，特朗普在会见北约秘书长吕特时称，如果无法在50天内达成协议结束俄乌冲突，美国将对俄罗斯实施"非常严厉的、大约100%的关税"。 特朗普称，他对俄罗斯感到不满和失望。 一名白宫官员解释说，特朗普的意思是，如果俄乌50天内达不成协议，美国将对俄罗斯征收100%的关税，对购买俄罗斯石油的国家亦征收关税。有分析指 出，对于依赖俄罗斯化石燃料作为能源计划一部分的国家，比如印度、巴西和土耳其等，可能会付出特别沉重的代价。 近一段时间，特朗普先后致信20多个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by President Trump to increase tariffs on Philippine exports to the U.S. from 17% to 20% starting August 1, 2025, has shattered the hopes of Philippine President Marcos for U.S. support against China, highlighting the transactional nature of U.S. foreign policy [1][3]. Trade Relations - In 2024, the total value of U.S. imports from the Philippines was $14.178 billion, while exports were only $9.298 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $4.9 billion for the Philippines [1]. - The Philippines has a high dependency on exports of agricultural products like bananas and coconut oil to the U.S., with over 60% of these exports at risk due to the new tariffs [3]. Economic Impact - The increase in tariffs is expected to raise costs for Philippine exporters, particularly affecting small and medium-sized enterprises with profit margins of only 5%-8% [6]. - The electronics manufacturing sector, which constitutes 35% of the Philippines' exports to the U.S., will face additional costs of $3 for every $100 exported due to the new tariff [6]. Diplomatic Relations - The Philippines attempted to negotiate with the U.S. to mitigate the impact of the tariffs by increasing imports of U.S. agricultural products and expanding exports of semiconductors and other goods [3]. - The U.S. has shown a double standard in its trade policies, as evidenced by a recent agreement with Vietnam to lower tariffs while imposing higher tariffs on the Philippines, despite the latter's smaller trade deficit [4]. Strategic Considerations - The U.S. appears to be using the tariff increase as a means to pressure the Philippines into greater military cooperation, potentially including the opening of more military bases and the deployment of intermediate-range missiles [3]. - The situation reflects a broader trend where countries that align closely with U.S. interests may find themselves at a disadvantage if they do not meet U.S. expectations [8].

美元继续走强 金银趔趄回荡 周一美元指数以97.85点开盘，最高上试98.13点，最低下探97.75点，报收98.08点，上涨240点，涨幅0.25%，振幅0.39%，日K线呈震荡反弹小阳线，创两 周新高。 周一Wellxin贵金指数（金银钯铂）以7034.45点开盘，最高上试7121.41点，最低下探6941.20点，报收6963.68点，下跌72.64.85点，跌幅1.03%，振幅 2.56，日K线呈冲高回落小阴线。 周一国际现货银价下跌0.67%，报收38.13美元；现货铂金价格下跌2.8%，报收1360.10美元；现货钯金价格下跌2.78%，报收1182.25美元。 美元突破月线反压继续反弹，创两周新高，商品与贵金属市场全面承压。贵金属中，商品属性越强的品种，下跌幅度越大，体现了美元金融属性与商品市 场之间的正常关系。但美元与贵金属各品种中期运行趋势，尚未受到根本影响。 CPI今晚登场如何搅局？ 2025年07月15日 威尔鑫投资咨询研究中心 （文） 首席分析师 杨易君 来源：杨易君黄金与金融投资 周一国际现货金价以3355.41美元开盘，最高上试3374.63美元，最低下探3340.92美元，报收3 ...