祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | | | | | 铅锌日评20250625：区间整理 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/25 | 指标 单位 | | | 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | | | | 元/吨 SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | | | 16,750.00 0.15% | | | | 沪铅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | | | 16,955.00 0.21% | | | | | 升贴水-上海 元/吨 | | | -25.00 - | | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 | | | -24.13 0.13 | | | | 价差 | | | | | | | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 | | | -5.00 5.00 | | | | 铅 | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 元/吨 | | | - - 5.00 5.00 | | | | | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 手 期货活跃合约成交量 | | | 34,403.00 31.28% | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical premium brought by the Iran-Israel conflict has been basically cleared, and the increase in ethylene glycol has also mostly landed. The market situation of ethylene glycol will gradually return to the industry logic based on fundamentals, but in the short - term, the price will still be mainly affected by macro - events and cost - end factors. After the overnight sharp decline in crude oil prices, ethylene glycol is expected to operate weakly [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Price Information - On June 24, 2025, the price of naphtha CFR Japan was $586.25 per ton, down 8.65% from the previous value; the price of ethylene Northeast Asia remained unchanged at $851 per ton; the ex - factory price of cyclohexane in East China remained unchanged at 6000 yuan per ton; the spot price of methanol MA remained unchanged at 2740 yuan per ton; the pit - mouth price of lignite in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 290 yuan per ton [1] - The closing price of DCE EG's main contract was 4332 yuan per ton, down 3.75%; the settlement price was 4375 yuan per ton, down 2.86%; the closing price of the near - month contract was 4288 yuan per ton, up 0.78%; the settlement price of the near - month contract was 4288 yuan per ton, up 0.78%. The market price of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China remained unchanged at 4410 yuan per ton; the CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol MEG's domestic market was 4410 yuan per ton, down 3.61% [1] - The near - far month price difference was 87 yuan per ton, a decrease of 162 yuan compared with the previous value; the basis was 78 yuan per ton, an increase of 4 yuan. The comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol was 55.77%, down 2.56%; the operating rate of petroleum - based ethylene glycol was 58.18%, down 4.34%; the operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol remained unchanged at 52.28% [1] - The PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories was 90.01%, down 0.09%; the PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged at 67.64% [1] - The post - tax gross profit of MTO MEG was 2056.13 yuan per ton, an increase of 21.95 yuan; the post - tax gross profit of the coal - based synthesis gas method device was 676.55 yuan per ton, a decrease of 150.44 yuan [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY remained unchanged at 9200 yuan per ton; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY remained unchanged at 7500 yuan per ton; the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6880 yuan per ton, down 1.02%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 6060 yuan per ton, down 3.19% [1] Equipment Information - An 800,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol (MEG) device in Zhejiang is expected to start maintenance on June 24 for 4 days [2] Market Situation - On June 24, the price of ethylene glycol dropped significantly, with the price falling to around 4400 yuan per ton. The trading of ethylene glycol cargo was relatively light, and polyester factories participated in the hanging orders at a relatively low level. The prices of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and chips fluctuated, and the sales were relatively light. The geopolitical premium caused by the Iran - Israel conflict has been basically cleared, and ethylene glycol's increase has also mostly landed [2]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 25 日 PP：现货下跌，成交冷淡 张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PP 基本面数据 PP 趋势强度：-1 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2509 | 7074 | -2.25% | 567,068 | -40075 | | 价 差 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 09合约基差 | 5 6 | | -32 | | | | 09-01合约价差 | 4 7 | | 6 2 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 7080 - | 7230 | 7160 - | 7280 | | | 华东 | 7130 - | 7300 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical ceasefire [2][4] - Silver: Continue to soar [2][4] - Copper: Declining inventory supports prices [2][10] - Aluminum: Weak operation [2][13] - Alumina: Bottom - range oscillation [2][13] - Aluminum alloy: Deeper into the off - season [2][13] - Zinc: Narrow - range adjustment [2][16] - Lead: Strong in the medium term [2][18] - Tin: Tight current situation, weak future expectations [2][21] - Nickel: Loosening expectations at the distal nickel ore end, smelting end restricts upside potential [2] - Stainless steel: Both supply and demand are marginally weak, steel prices oscillate at low levels [2][26] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2508, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2508 decreased by 1.21%, 1.19%, and 1.36% respectively. The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2508, Silver T + D, and Comex Silver 2508 decreased by 0.36%, 0.24%, and 0.52% respectively. In terms of trading volume and positions, there were corresponding changes. ETF positions and inventory also showed different trends [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Powell's congressional hearing on the first day, Trump's call for interest rate cuts, Israel's cease - fire in military operations against Iran, the EU's preparation for tariff counter - measures against the US, and China's six - department financial promotion of consumption policies [5][7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is - 1, silver trend intensity is - 1 [8]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased by 0.45%, and the night - session closing price decreased by 0.22%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.31%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Powell's congressional hearing, the cease - fire between Israel and Iran leading to a rise in US stocks, a new copper smelter in India starting processing, a Japanese company cutting copper production, China's decline in copper ore imports, and Mexico's decision not to issue new mining concessions [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [12]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract, LME Aluminum 3M, Shanghai Alumina main contract, and Aluminum Alloy main contract showed different trends. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads and premiums [13]. - **Comprehensive News**: The approaching deadline for the US tariff suspension, a surge in Asian exports to the US, and expected changes in the US trade deficit [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 0, alumina trend intensity is 0, aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [15]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 0.64%, and the closing price of the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk increased by 1.40%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads and premiums [16]. - **News**: Powell's congressional hearing [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [16]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 0.24%, and the closing price of the LME Lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.60%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads and premiums [18]. - **News**: Powell's congressional hearing [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 1 [19]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 0.73%, and the closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.34%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads and premiums [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Powell's congressional hearing, Trump's call for interest rate cuts, Israel's cease - fire in military operations against Iran, the EU's preparation for tariff counter - measures against the US, and China's six - department financial promotion of consumption policies [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 0 [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Nickel main contract and the Stainless Steel main contract showed different trends. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, and various price spreads and premiums in the industrial chain [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's potential suspension of nickel exports to the US, a nickel project in Indonesia entering trial production, a nickel smelter resuming production, a cold - rolling mill in Indonesia planning maintenance, the removal of the raw ore export ban in the Philippines, and environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park [26][27][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [29].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 25 日 沥青：弱势震荡 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi023726@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2507 | 元/吨 | 3,592 | -5.20% | 3,554 | -1.06% | | | BU2508 | 元/吨 | 3,593 | -5.20% | 3,562 | -0.86% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | BU2507 | 手 | 31,802 | 12,243 | 21,364 | (8,511) | | | BU2508 | 手 | 19,850 | 8,029 | 29,124 | (1,406) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 98360 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 ...

行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 25 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 每日报告 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: Not clearly rated [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly rated [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★★☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides daily analysis and investment suggestions for various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., based on factors such as spot prices, inventory changes, supply - demand relationships, and international events [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Tuesday, Shanghai copper closed positive. Today's spot copper price is 78415 yuan. Shanghai copper premium shrank to 40 yuan, and Guangdong premium shrank to 30 yuan. With the US manufacturing PMI in expansion and the euro - zone in contraction, and LME copper still stable at the MA20, short positions should be held [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Today, Shanghai aluminum declined with a 150 - yuan premium in East China. Aluminum ingot inventory increased by 1.5 million tons. With the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, supply concerns eased. With high market divergence, shorting opportunities after the narrowing of the monthly spread should be noted. Cast aluminum alloy futures had limited fluctuations. There is a large spot price difference between aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, and if the spread between AL2511 and AD2511 widens, consider a long - AD and short - AL strategy. Alumina spot trading was scarce, and with domestic production capacity in surplus, shorting on rebounds is recommended [3] Zinc - Due to high capital congestion, some short - sellers took profits, causing the price to rise. But downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc is low, and the spot premium declined. With supply recovering and demand weak, shorting on rebounds is advised [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined in a volatile manner. With the supply pressure increasing at the ore end and the price support from the upstream weakening, short positions should be held [7] Tin - Shanghai tin closed positive with increased positions. With better - than - expected tin concentrate imports in May and weakening consumption, a small number of short positions in the far - month contracts should be held [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded. With the overall inventory increasing and the decline in the downstream inventory, and the slowdown in the decline of Australian ore prices, the market is expected to be volatile in the short term [9] Industrial Silicon - The futures price of industrial silicon rose slightly. With the expected increase in polysilicon production and the end of organic silicon maintenance, the market rebounded. But with increased supply expected in June, the upside space is limited, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures rebounded with reduced positions, possibly due to technical repair. With the terminal demand falling and supply increasing, the imbalance between supply and demand is intensifying, and the trend is expected to be weakly volatile [11]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 短线回落整理 | 按照 CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利，美豆种植天气基本顺利。南美方 | | | | 面，基本丰产定局。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆，豆粕进入累库阶段。饲料企 | | | | 业库存补库大幅恢复。6 月美农报告中性。由于美豆种植基本顺利叠加国内豆粕累 | | | | 库，整体基本面依然偏空。虽然美豆优良率同比偏低，但目前产量实际影响较小， | | | | 更多为炒作。前日豆粕回落，本周国内大豆及豆粕最新库存环比增加，利空市场情 | | | | 绪，美豆种植天气顺利，缺乏利多驱动。在月底美豆面积重要数据公布前，预计将 | | | | 维持震荡整理行情为主。关注 20 日均线附近技术支持情况。主力【3000，3065】 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存暂无压力，商业菜粕库存偏高利空近月 7 月菜粕价格。6 月 | | | | 至 8 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口量预期偏低，供 | | | | 应展望压力减轻，加籽的强势叠加国内菜籽进口偏低，对菜粕价格构成较强支持 ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20250624：沪铅宽幅整理；沪锌反弹空间有限 | 今值 | 变动 | 2025/6/24 | 指标 | 近期趋势 | 单位 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 元/吨 | 16,725.00 | 0.00% | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | 沪铅期现价格 | 16,920.00 | 0.65% | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | | 元/吨 | -195.00 | -110.00 | 沪铅基差 | 元/吨 | -25.00 | - | 升贴水-上海 | | | 美元/吨 | -24.26 | 4.23 | 升贴水-LME 0-3 | 美元/吨 | -59.30 | 3.00 | 升贴水-LME 3-15 | 价差 | | 元/吨 | -10.00 | 25.00 | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | 元/吨 | - | 5.00 | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 | 铅 | | 元/吨 | - | -10.00 | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint - Zinc shows a short - term upward trend with reduced positions [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 21,780 yuan/ton, up 0.48%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,649 dollars/ton, up 0.09%. The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 111,405 lots, an increase of 19,848 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 6,815 lots, an increase of 38 lots. The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 110,868 lots, an increase of 5,745 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 209,914 lots, an increase of 1,944 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was 100 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M premium was - 24.65 dollars/ton, up 2.24 dollars/ton. The import bill of lading premium was 135 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 7,719 tons, down 1,024 tons; LME zinc inventory was 125,900 tons, down 325 tons. LME zinc cancelled warrants were 33,400 tons, an increase of 1,125 tons [1] News - Iran attacked a US military base in Qatar without mentioning an attack on energy infrastructure. Trump thanked Iran for "advance notice" and said Iran's response was "very weak", causing a plunge in crude oil prices. Trump said that Israel and Iran had fully agreed to a comprehensive cease - fire to be implemented in stages, and Iranian officials confirmed the acceptance of the cease - fire to the media. Israeli media reported that Israel informed Iran that it sought to end the conflict within "a few days" [2] Trend Intensity - The zinc trend intensity is 0, with the range of [- 2,2], representing a neutral view [2]