美国与欧盟的贸易谈判传来利好信号。 据最新消息，欧盟计划加速与美国谈判，从而避免大西洋两岸发生"贸易战"。当地时间5月26日，欧盟发言人 透露，欧盟贸易和经济安全事务专员塞夫科维奇将于当地时间周一下午与美国商务部长卢特尼克进行通话。 "现在谈判有了新的动力。"欧盟委员会发言人保拉·皮尼奥周一表示，"双方同意加快贸易谈判进程，并保持密 切联系。" 保拉·皮尼奥表示，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩与美国总统特朗普的通话为贸易谈判注入了新的动力。欧盟贸易 和经济安全事务专员塞夫科维奇将于当地时间周一下午与美国商务部长卢特尼克进行通话。 保拉·皮尼奥进一步表示，在与美国的谈判中，欧盟提出的"零关税对零关税"提案仍在谈判桌上。 在此之前，特朗普表示，欧盟请求将关税谈判期限延长至7月9日，他已同意这一请求。 这一消息瞬间点燃了市场的乐观情绪，欧洲多国股市周一集体大涨，截至发稿，丹麦OMX20指数大涨超2%， 欧洲斯托克50指数、德国DAX 30指数、法国CAC 40指数、意大利富时MIB指数均涨超1%。 但分析人士警告称，尽管美国总统特朗普推迟了对欧盟征收50%关税的计划，但投资者仍需"系好安全带"，因 为潜在的贸易战风险尚未完 ...

欧元兑美元目前涨0.2%，报1.1384。 欧盟计划加速与美国谈判，从而避免大西洋两岸发生贸易战。 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% on a year-over-year basis in the first quarter, exceeding market expectations and highlighting rising uncertainties due to government tariff policies [1] - Concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy are growing amid a global trade war, leading to declines in consumer and business confidence, which in turn affected U.S. stock index futures [1] U.S.-China Trade Relations - President Trump has recently signaled a willingness to significantly reduce tariffs on China, but this was clarified by China as non-existent, and subsequent talks have not materialized [3] - The U.S. continues to demand negotiations with China, emphasizing the need for "fairness" in trade [3] Semiconductor Industry - The U.S. Department of Commerce has intensified export controls on semiconductor technology to China, specifically targeting Huawei's Ascend chips, which serves as a warning to other countries against purchasing these chips [5] - China's Ministry of Commerce criticized the U.S. for its unilateral actions, claiming they violate international law and market principles, and warned that such measures could lead to retaliatory actions under China's anti-foreign sanctions law [5][6] Implications for China - If China cannot access advanced foreign chips, it may accelerate its efforts in self-research and development, potentially leading to a complete independence from foreign semiconductor suppliers [5] - The historical precedent suggests that once China commits to self-research, it is likely to achieve domestic production capabilities, which could negatively impact foreign chip manufacturers' access to the Chinese market [5] Global Semiconductor Supply Chain - The U.S. actions are viewed as a form of unilateral bullying that could destabilize the global semiconductor supply chain, prompting China to enhance its innovation capabilities [6] - The ongoing trade tensions and restrictions are seen as counterproductive to global cooperation and innovation, which are essential for mutual benefits in the technology sector [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. Trade Representative reported that China agreed to lift export countermeasures imposed after April, including restrictions on rare earth minerals and magnets, although no changes were made to rare earth export controls [1] - China holds 70% of global rare earth mining and 92% of refining capacity, making it a dominant player in the rare earth supply chain [4] - The U.S. has been slow to develop its rare earth sector due to environmental regulations and high costs, with companies like Neo Performance Materials stating that it takes at least 29 years to establish a rare earth mine in the U.S. [3] Group 2 - Rare earths are critical for high-tech and military industries, used in advanced equipment such as F-35 fighter jets and renewable energy technologies [4] - Recent reports suggest that China issued four rare earth export licenses, the first since imposing restrictions on certain rare earths, which may be a strategic move ahead of negotiations [6] - The U.S. military and energy sectors are heavily reliant on rare earths, and China's control over pricing and supply has led to significant price increases, with dysprosium prices in Europe rising over 200% [6][8] Group 3 - The U.S. has attempted to reduce reliance on Chinese rare earths through various measures, but lacks the necessary separation and purification technology, making it difficult to rebuild the supply chain [6][8] - Analysts indicate that rebuilding a complete rare earth supply chain outside of China could take 10 to 15 years, during which time U.S. industrial security may be compromised [8]

或因一些投资者在美国假期前选择回补空头头寸，两油有所反弹，日内涨超1%，WTI原油期货先跌后涨，并在美盘时段急速拉升至61美元上方，最终收涨 1.56%，报61.74美元/桶。欧佩克+增产加剧了市场对原油供应过剩的担忧，但以色列对加沙的新一轮军事打击以及美伊核谈判陷入僵局也限制了油价跌幅。 油价上周走势偏震荡，周五下探60关口后反弹回升，大涨逾1%，一度逼近62关口，目前没有消息或者数据很难打破震荡走势，上方关注65一线的阻力。四 小时线，上周油价冲高64关口后回落，下方触及60关口后反弹回升，可以看出60关口存在支撑，油价处于布林带中上轨之间运行，KDJ有形成金叉的迹象， MACD金叉后向上运行，短线走势震荡偏强。 综合来看，目前油价处于震荡走势之中，暂时很难打破这种僵局，上周五在下探60关口后回升收涨逾1%，短线走势震荡偏强，日内操作上可以参考61-61.50 区域布局多单，看至63.50-64区域。 投资的首要原则是规避好风险，如果不能规避风险，那么赚再多的钱，有一天还是会回去，任何一个人成功都有其方法，而投资交易也必有其原则，积少成 多，以小损失博大是交易的根本，而有很多人却忘记了初衷，把利益放在眼前 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The tariff policies of Trump have introduced uncertainties, leading to an increase in market risk - aversion sentiment, which is favorable for precious metals in the short - term, while the medium - term trend requires further observation of the trade war's progress [1]. - For various commodities, their short - term price trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, production capacity utilization, and market sentiment, with most showing a tendency of short - term weakening or oscillating [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Trump's tariff threats have increased market risk - aversion sentiment, and Powell's speech has added more possibilities to future monetary policies. Precious metals are bullish in the short - term, and the medium - term trend depends on the trade war [1]. - **Silver**: The Fed's monetary policy remains in a wait - and - see mode. With the decline of US stocks and the resurgence of risk - aversion sentiment, the fundamentals are bearish for silver. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the medium - term [8]. Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda plant is operating at a high level, with stable expected operation this week and a decrease in enterprise inventory. The downstream alumina has low profits, and the replenishment demand is expected to slow down. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [1]. - **Methanol**: The coal price is expected to be weak, and the domestic methanol operation is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is stable, and the port inventory may continue to accumulate. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [5]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is stabilizing, with a narrow adjustment in supply and general downstream demand. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. Metals - **Rebar**: The production of five major steel products has increased slightly, the apparent consumption has decreased, and the supply - demand pressure has increased slightly. The steel market may have weak supply and demand in the short - term, and the steel price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [3]. - **Coke**: The coking profit is continuously recovering, and the supply is increasing. The iron - water production is slightly decreasing, and the coke consumption remains high. The coke price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term due to the approaching off - season of steel demand and the expected reduction of steel mill profits [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore supply increase is not obvious, and the supply - demand is balanced. With the recent macro - level positive news, the iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [4]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's export tariff increase and other news have affected the market sentiment. The domestic spot basis is stable, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Soybeans**: The price drivers of US soybeans are uncertain. The domestic soybean planting is nearly half - completed, and the old - bean inventory is tight. It is recommended to wait for a callback to go long on soybean No. 1 [9]. - **Pigs**: The national pig price first fell and then rose over the weekend. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the price is adjusting weakly. It is recommended to wait and see, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [9]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Tariffs, the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation, and other factors have brought uncertainties to the market. The short - term pressure is not large, and the mid - term trend depends on the implementation of OPEC+ policies [10]. - **Rubber**: The rubber raw materials are resistant to price drops in the short - term due to delayed tapping in Thailand and heavy rain in Southeast Asia. However, the overall expectation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. Others - **PTA**: The restart of PX and PTA maintenance devices will lead to a slight increase in domestic supply. The polyester inventory is still high, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm needs further observation. It is not recommended to chase the high price in the long - term [13]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market issuance is basically completed, and the supply shock has eased. The economic downward pressure is still large, and the bond market is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the medium - term [8].

智通财经APP注意到，过去一个月股市的狂热反弹现已暂停，因对财政赤字的担忧加剧推动国债收益率飙升，同时特朗普总统再次威胁提高关税。 上周五，特朗普威胁将对非美国制造的苹果产品直接征收25%关税，并警告可能在6月初将欧盟关税提高至50%。这导致主要股指连续一周下跌：纳斯达克 综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数当周均下跌约2.4%，标普500指数下跌约2.6%。 未来一周，贸易战进展和特朗普悬而未决的税收法案仍将是关注焦点。英伟达(NVDA)周三盘后公布的季度财报预计将成为市场焦点。Okta(OKTA.US)、 Salesforce(CRM.US)和好市多(COST.US)的财报也将受到投资者关注。经济数据方面，美联储青睐的通胀指标——4月核心PCE物价指数将于周五公布。美股 周一因阵亡将士纪念日休市。 不过上周五债券抛售有所缓解，因特朗普再次威胁提高关税，提醒投资者即使对多国关税实施90天暂停期，贸易政策的不确定性仍远未结束。 Piper Sandler首席投资策略师迈克尔·坎特罗维茨写道，"可以说目前我们正处于贸易不确定性的低谷期，""现阶段市场需要看到这些关税被撤销且债券收益率 不再飙升，才能实现实质性上涨。" ...

21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 随着投资者对贸易战的担忧再度加剧，过去一周，美股三大指数累计跌幅均超过2%，纳指跌2.47%，标 普500指数跌2.61%，道指跌2.47%。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月23日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上表示，建议从2025年6月1日起对欧 盟产品直接征收50%的关税，而如果产品在美国制造或生产，则无需缴纳关税。欧盟设置了强大的贸易 壁垒、征收增值税、企业罚款、非货币贸易壁垒、货币操纵、针对美国公司不公平且不合理的诉讼等。 同一天，特朗普还表示，对不在美国生产的手机制造商征收25%的关税，将在6月底前对苹果公司和三 星征收关税。 受关税消息冲击，上周五标普500指数收跌0.67%，报5802.82点，连续四天下跌；纳指跌1%，报 18737.21点；道指跌0.61%，报41603.07点。 不过，目前有限的跌幅显示，市场目前并不完全相信美国会在6月1日对欧盟加征50%的关税，"朝令夕 改"的关税政策仍充满不确定性，市场仍在观望这些威胁落地的可能性。 不确定性高悬 面临关税不确定性，美国经济笼罩在滞胀阴霾下，9月前美联储或不会下调利率。 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，政策制定者 ...

伦敦海运咨询公司德路里上周五发布的报告显示，3月下旬至5月中旬期间，德国不来梅港的泊位等待时间跃升77%。同期，安特卫普港的延误时间增加 37%，汉堡港增加49%，鹿特丹港和英国费利克斯托港的等待时间也有所延长。 智通财经APP获悉，一份新报告显示，北欧主要门户港口和其他枢纽港的拥堵状况正在恶化，贸易战可能会将海运中断蔓延至亚洲和美国，并推高航运费 率。 欧洲一些最繁忙的港口拥堵情况加剧 劳动力短缺和莱茵河水位偏低是主要原因，阻碍了往返内陆地区的驳船运输。加剧这些制约因素的是，美国总统特朗普暂时取消对中国进口商品加征145% 的关税，这提前释放了全球两大经济体之间的航运需求。 德路里表示："港口延误延长了运输时间，扰乱了库存规划，并迫使托运人增加库存。雪上加霜的是，跨太平洋东行贸易显示出旺季提前的迹象，原因是美 中关税90天的暂停期将于8月14日结束。"该机构表示，中国深圳以及洛杉矶和纽约也出现了类似的情况，"自4月下旬以来，等待泊位的集装箱船数量一直在 增加"。 总部位于汉堡的赫伯罗特股份公司首席执行官罗尔夫•哈本•詹森上周在一个网络研讨会上表示，尽管他最近看到了欧洲港口改善的迹象，但他预计"还需要 六到八 ...

当所有人将注意力集中在6月1日的关税大限、特朗普与欧盟的"贸易摊牌"时，一个低调但可能产生巨大影响的法律事件，正在悄然到来。 高盛分析师Alec Phillips在最新报告中提醒， 美国国际贸易法院将在未来几周内就一项初步禁令动议作出裁决，该禁令可能会废除特朗普在4月2日公布的关 税。 虽然法院批准初步禁令的可能性不大，但这是市场普遍忽视的潜在利好风险。 据报道，这项裁定可能在本月底前落地。这也意味着， 一旦法院通过禁令，已实施的10%全面关税和暂缓的对等关税将全部被叫停，美国与欧盟、日本、印度 等国家正在进行的紧张谈判，也将面临重新洗牌。 总统能否绕过国会开征关税？ 这场法律挑战的核心是特朗普使用1977年《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA)征收全球关税的权力。 这种"自残式"的关税政策引发了美国国内企业的强烈不满。很快，V.O.S. Selections葡萄酒进口公司等五家小企业向国际贸易法院提起诉讼， 称总统无权绕过 国会征收这些关税 。 Danforth将此案描述为"自美国建国以来最重要的问题之一"，涉及到权力集中问题以及美国开国元勋詹姆斯·麦迪逊试图将权力分散到政府各个部门的理念。 今年4月，特朗普 ...