Economic Growth - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned negative, indicating a decline in economic momentum[1] - Index B decreased, with investment and real estate sectors showing a downturn while consumer sector remained stable[1] - Seasonal analysis shows Index B typically rises by an average of 0.17 weekly post-Spring Festival, but this week it fell by 0.43, underperforming historical averages[1] Price Trends - Food prices are expected to decline by approximately -1.0% month-on-month in May, while non-food prices are projected to decrease by -0.2%, leading to an overall CPI decline of -0.4%[2] - The PPI is anticipated to drop by -0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease of -3.1%[2] Market Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, suggesting a potential rise in the ten-year government bond yield and a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index next week[1][19] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of May 30, 2025, is 2.28%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is forecasted to be 3,099.44[20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 125.7 points (previous value was 125.5 points), with a week - on - week increase of 4.8 points (previous increase was 4.7 points), and the year - on - year increase has rebounded. The long - short signal for interest - rate bonds is short, with a signal factor of 6.4% (previous value was 6.3%) [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 125.3 (previous value was 125.2), with a week - on - week increase of 4.7 points (previous increase was 4.6 points), and the year - on - year increase has increased [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the commercial housing sales high - frequency index is 45.0 (previous value was 45.1), with a week - on - week decrease of 6.7 points (previous decrease was 6.8 points), and the year - on - year decline has narrowed; the infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 117.4 (previous value was 117.2), with a week - on - week increase of 0.5 points (previous increase was 0.0 points), and the year - on - year increase has expanded; the export high - frequency index is 144.6 (previous value was 144.7), with a week - on - week increase of 7.2 points (previous increase was 7.6 points), and the year - on - year increase has narrowed; the consumption high - frequency index is 119.4 (previous value was 119.4), with a week - on - week increase of 1.3 points (previous increase was 1.2 points), and the year - on - year increase has increased [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the CPI month - on - month forecast is 0.0% (previous value was 0.0%); the PPI month - on - month forecast is - 0.3% (previous value was - 0.3%) [2]. - The inventory high - frequency index is 159.8 (previous value was 159.7), with a week - on - week increase of 10.0 points (previous increase was 10.0 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. In transportation, the transportation high - frequency index is 127.1 (previous value was 126.9), with a week - on - week increase of 7.6 points (previous increase was 7.4 points), and the year - on - year increase has increased. In financing, the financing high - frequency index is 226.7 (previous value was 226.1), with a week - on - week increase of 29.0 points (previous increase was 29.0 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged [2]. Summary by Directory Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - Based on the report "Fundamental High - Frequency Data - An Effective Tool for Taking the Lead in Bond Market Investment" published on September 5, 2023, a high - frequency data system covering overall, production, demand, prices, financing, etc. was constructed, and the Guosheng fixed - income fundamental high - frequency index and sub - indices were built [8]. - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 125.7 points, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 4.8 points. The interest - rate bond long - short signal factor is 6.4%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1% [9][11]. Production: Chemical Industry Operating Rate Rebounds - The industrial production high - frequency index is 125.3, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 4.7 points. The electric furnace operating rate is 64.7% (previous value was 63.5%); the polyester operating rate is 93.9% (previous value was 92.9%); the semi - tire operating rate is 78.3% (previous value was 58.4%); the full - tire operating rate is 65.1% (previous value was 44.8%); the PTA operating rate is 74.6% (previous value was 74.5%); the PX operating rate is 78.2% (previous value was 77.2%) [1][13]. Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales Year - on - Year Remain Negative - The commercial housing sales high - frequency index is 45.0, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.7 points. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 27.1 million square meters (previous value was 19.8 million square meters), and the land premium rate of 100 large and medium - sized cities is 7.2% (previous value was 8.7%) [11][21]. Infrastructure Investment: Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate Rebounds - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 117.4, with a week - on - week increase of 0.3 points and a year - on - year increase of 0.5 points. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants is 34.4% (previous value was 28.8%) [11][35]. Export: Yiwu Commodity Price Index Has Rebounded - The export high - frequency index is 144.6, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 7.2 points. The CCFI index is 1105 points (previous value was 1106 points), and the RJ/CRB index is 297.6 points (previous value was 291.5 points) [11][37]. Consumption: Passenger Car Manufacturers' Retail Sales Increase - The consumption high - frequency index is 119.4, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 1.3 points. Passenger car manufacturers' retail sales are 60,896 units (previous value was 41,659 units), passenger car manufacturers' wholesale sales are 48,492 units (previous value was 34,604 units), and the average daily box office is 34.25 million yuan (previous value was 72.49 million yuan) [11][49]. CPI: Vegetable Prices Continue to Fall - The CPI month - on - month forecast is 0.0%. The average wholesale price of pork is 20.9 yuan/kg (unchanged from the previous value), the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables is 4.3 yuan/kg (previous value was 4.4 yuan/kg), the average wholesale price of 7 key monitored fruits is 7.9 yuan/kg (previous value was 7.8 yuan/kg), and the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.3 yuan/kg (previous value was 17.2 yuan/kg) [2][57]. PPI: Crude Oil Prices Have Rebounded - The PPI month - on - month forecast is - 0.3%. The closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (Shanxi - produced, Q5500) is 619 yuan/ton (previous value was 638 yuan/ton), the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 66 US dollars/barrel (previous value was 62 US dollars/barrel), and the spot settlement price of LME copper is 9569 US dollars/ton (previous value was 9471 US dollars/ton) [2][63]. Transportation: Passenger Transport Rebounds, Flights Decline - The transportation high - frequency index is 127.1, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 points and a year - on - year increase of 7.6 points. The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities is 38.69 million person - times (previous value was 36.98 million person - times), the road logistics freight rate index is 1050 points (unchanged from the previous value), and the number of domestic flights has decreased to 12,728 flights (previous value was 13,179 flights) [2][74]. Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Declines - The inventory high - frequency index is 159.8, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 points and a year - on - year increase of 10.0 points. The spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum has decreased to 89,000 tons (previous value was 171,000 tons) [2][80]. Financing: Net Financing of Local Government Bonds Rebounds, Net Financing of Credit Bonds Declines - The financing high - frequency index is 226.7, with a week - on - week increase of 0.6 points and a year - on - year increase of 29.0 points. The net financing of local government bonds is 171.1 billion yuan (previous value was 67.2 billion yuan), the net financing of credit bonds is - 17.5 billion yuan (previous value was 4.1 billion yuan), and the 6 - month national equity bank acceptance bill rediscount rate is 1.11% (previous value was 1.07%) [11][91].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the retail sector, indicating a strong growth trajectory supported by various factors such as holiday effects and e-commerce promotions [45]. Core Insights - The retail sales growth remains robust, with April's total retail sales reaching approximately 3.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [7]. - The report highlights the significant rebound in consumer enthusiasm for travel, with a total of 1.47 billion people traveling during the May Day holiday, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [15]. - The film industry faced challenges during the May Day holiday due to a lack of quality film releases, resulting in a 46% year-on-year decline in box office revenue for April [21]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Overview - Retail sales in May are expected to maintain a high growth rate, driven by holiday effects and e-commerce promotions [2]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight decline of 0.1% in April, with food prices rebounding and transportation costs decreasing [26]. Retail Sector Performance - April's retail sales for enterprises above designated size reached 1.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [10]. - Various consumer categories, including government-subsidized products, jewelry, and cosmetics, showed strong retail performance [10]. Travel and Entertainment - The report notes a significant increase in travel activity, with domestic tourism reaching 314 million trips during the May Day holiday, a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [15]. - The film industry experienced a downturn, with April box office figures declining significantly due to insufficient quality film offerings [21]. Price Trends - The report indicates that production material prices remain low, with no significant upward pressure on prices for commodities like cotton and pork [41]. - Food prices showed signs of recovery, particularly in categories such as beef and fruits, contributing to a slight increase in the food CPI [29]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the retail sector is likely to continue its strong performance, supported by favorable policies and consumer trends [45]. - It recommends monitoring emerging consumer sectors such as pet economy and cosmetics, which are expected to perform well during upcoming promotional events [45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the retail sector, indicating a strong growth trajectory supported by various factors such as holiday effects and e-commerce promotions [45]. Core Insights - The retail sales growth remains robust, with April's total retail sales reaching approximately 3.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [7]. - The report highlights the strong performance of various consumer categories, particularly those benefiting from government subsidies, with notable growth in categories like home appliances and communication equipment [10]. - The travel enthusiasm is high, with significant increases in domestic travel during the May Day holiday, reflecting a recovery in consumer behavior [15]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Overview - Retail sales in May continue to show rapid growth, driven by increased consumer spending and travel enthusiasm [2]. - The CPI shows a slight decline, with food prices rebounding, which offsets the impact of falling fuel prices [22][26]. Consumer Sector Performance - April's retail sales totaled approximately 3.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, indicating a stable consumer market [7]. - Online retail sales reached 1.1 trillion yuan in April, growing by 1.4% year-on-year, although this was a decrease from March's growth of 16.7% due to the anticipation of the upcoming 618 shopping festival [7]. Travel and Entertainment - Domestic travel during the May Day holiday saw 1.47 billion trips, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, indicating a strong recovery in travel demand [15]. - The film industry faced challenges with a significant drop in box office revenue during the May Day holiday, primarily due to a lack of quality film releases [21]. Price Trends - The report notes a decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating ongoing price pressures in the production sector [26]. - Food prices showed signs of recovery, with specific categories like beef and fruits experiencing notable price changes [29]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the retail sector is likely to maintain its growth momentum in May, supported by holiday spending and e-commerce promotions [45]. - It recommends monitoring emerging consumer trends and specific stocks that may benefit from the upcoming shopping events [45].

Trade Relations and Economic Indicators - The significant reduction in tariffs between China and the U.S. has improved trade expectations, with the U.S. comprehensive tariff rate on China remaining around 40%[2] - April export data exceeded expectations, but PPI showed a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, indicating underlying economic weaknesses[2] - New loan issuance in April was below expectations, with cumulative new household loans in the first four months at a near ten-year low[2] Market Trends and Monetary Policy - The bond market has entered a defensive phase, with yields generally rising; the 10-year government bond yield increased to 1.68% (+5bp) and the 30-year yield to 1.88% (+4bp)[11] - Market sentiment is shifting towards a "trend over volatility" approach, delaying expectations for further interest rate cuts until after Q2 data is released in July[2] - The likelihood of a return to a tight funding environment similar to Q1 is low due to several factors, including stable bank liabilities and a supportive central bank stance[3] Investment Strategy and Bond Valuation - The bond market is expected to experience a period of volatility, with the 10-year yield fluctuating between 1.6% and 1.7%[26] - In the short-term, the focus should be on evaluating price-performance ratios, particularly in the 1-3 year bond segment, which currently shows a high liquidity advantage[26] - For mid-term bonds (5-7 years), the pricing uncertainty is moderate, while the 10-year agricultural development bonds offer attractive spreads[6] Financial Products and Risk Assessment - The total scale of wealth management products decreased by 771 billion yuan to 31.49 trillion yuan, reflecting a seasonal decline[32] - The proportion of wealth management products with negative returns has slightly increased to 1.96%, but remains relatively low compared to historical levels[38] - The overall performance of wealth management products not meeting expectations has decreased to 17.4%, indicating improved performance across various institutions[44]

电话.1 ZOYO /470 香港恒生指数 69% 31% 标普500指数 35% 65% 纳斯达克指数 18% 82% 道琼斯指数 51% 49% 日经225指数 63% 37% 德国DAX40指 11% 89% 数 外汇 r 多头 |空头 欧元/美元 55% 45% 欧元/英镑 83% 17% 欧元/日元 40% 60% 欧元/澳元 31% 69% 英镑/美元 22% 78% 英镑/日元 39% 61% 美元/日元 47% 53% 美元/加元 42% 58% 美元/瑞郎 87% 13% 澳元/美元 75% 25% 澳元/日元 60% 40% 加元/日元 32% 68% 纽元/美元 63% 37% 纽元/日元 29% 71% 美元/离岸人 80% 20% 民币 免责声明:本图表数据来源于公众号:嘉盛集团,数据仅供参考,不作为任何投资建议。 美国经济数据疲软，4月零售销售较上月大幅放缓，PPI意外下滑。受益于此，黄金上一交易日涨超1%，当前多头占比仍在六成 以上。市场预计美伊将达成核协议，美油超跌近2.5%，后市情绪如何？欢迎前往"数据库-嘉盛市场晴雨表"查看并订阅（数据每 10分钟更新1次） ...

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, publications, and personal analysis intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It clarifies that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - The content is not tailored to individual financial situations or needs, highlighting the necessity for users to apply their own discretion [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - Users are encouraged to perform their own research before making investment decisions, especially regarding instruments they do not fully understand [1].

Economic Overview - In the first quarter of 2025, China's GDP reached 31.8758 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2% [3] - The primary industry added value was 1.1713 trillion yuan, growing by 3.5% year-on-year; the secondary industry added value was 11.1903 trillion yuan, increasing by 5.9%; and the tertiary industry added value was 19.5142 trillion yuan, with a growth of 5.3% [3] Financial Data - As of April 2025, the M2 money supply grew by 8% year-on-year, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating effective monetary policy and financial support for the economy [4] - The social financing scale, M2, and RMB loan growth rates were 8.7%, 8%, and 7.2% respectively, all exceeding nominal GDP growth, demonstrating strong financial support for the real economy [4] Price Indices - In April 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% month-on-month but fell by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year [4] - The core CPI showed stable growth, and some industrial prices continued to improve year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in market demand [4] Industrial Profit - In the first quarter of 2025, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned from a 3.3% decline in the previous year to a 0.8% increase, driven by policy effects and significant contributions from equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors [5]

Inflation Data - April CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected -0.2% and the previous value of -0.1%[11] - April PPI fell by 2.7% year-on-year, also better than the expected -2.8% and the previous value of -2.5%[11] Economic Stability - The year-on-year CPI remained stable compared to March, with a two-year average growth rate slightly improving to 0.1%[12] - The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.1%, recovering from a 0.4% decline in March, outperforming the historical average of -0.1%[12] Core CPI and Demand - Core CPI remained low, indicating weak terminal demand and sluggish consumption, necessitating accelerated domestic demand policies[7] - Food prices showed a seasonal increase, with a 0.2% month-on-month rise, driven by supply factors[12] Policy Response - The Central Political Bureau proposed more proactive macro policies to address domestic demand shortages and external shocks[8] - A package of financial policies was launched in early May, including interest rate cuts and structural tools to stimulate domestic demand[8] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected central bank adjustments, inflation exceeding expectations, and escalating trade tensions[17] - Ongoing monitoring of policy implementation, US-China tariff negotiations, and fiscal measures is essential for future economic stability[8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekly economic index declined, with the China Weekly Economic Index (WEI) at 5.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The production sub - index decreased while the demand sub - index increased, and the supply - demand gap widened [1]. - Production showed a downward trend, with a decline in the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production and a significant drop in the automobile semi - steel tire operating rate [1]. - Infrastructure high - frequency indicators remained flat, with a slight decline in cement shipping and grinding rates and a slight increase in the petroleum asphalt plant operating rate [1]. - The growth rate of commercial housing sales slowed down, and the floor area of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities decreased significantly [2]. - Consumption increased, with improvements in movie box office and domestic flight execution numbers, but a slight decline in the subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [2]. - Exports decreased, as indicated by the sharp decline in South Korea's export year - on - year in early May and the drop in shipping freight rate indices [2]. - The price of pork increased, while the overall agricultural product wholesale price index decreased slightly. Industrial product prices generally declined [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Economic Index - The WEI was 5.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The production sub - index was 5.0%, down 0.6 percentage points, and the demand sub - index was 5.8%, up 0.3 percentage points. The supply - demand gap was 0.8%, up 0.9 percentage points [1]. 3.2 Production - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production was 2.4%, down 3.4 percentage points. The blast furnace operating rate was 84.6%, up 0.2 percentage points. The automobile semi - steel tire operating rate was 58.4%, down 14.0 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average daily coal consumption of coastal power plants was 1.1%, down 0.9 percentage points [1]. 3.3 Infrastructure - The cement shipping rate was 39.3%, down 1.2 percentage points. The cement mill operating rate was 41.7%, down 1.8 percentage points. The petroleum asphalt plant operating rate was 28.8%, up 0.5 percentage points [1]. 3.4 Real Estate - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the commercial housing sales area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was - 8.1%, up 4.3 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the floor area of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities was - 17.4%, down 15.8 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Consumption - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of movie box office was - 43.0%, up 0.8 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of domestic flight execution numbers was 4.2%, up 1.0 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen was 2.6%, down 0.2 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Exports - South Korea's export year - on - year in early May was - 23.8%, down 43.1 percentage points from late April. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was - 33.6%, down 5.5 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was - 28.9%, down 4.6 percentage points [2]. 3.7 CPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index was - 2.6%, down 0.3 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of pork was 1.5%, up 0.3 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was - 5.9%, down 2.3 percentage points [3]. 3.8 PPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Nanhua Composite Index was - 9.4%, down 0.3 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Brent crude oil spot price was - 24.8%, up 1.1 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the rebar price was - 12.7%, down 0.9 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Qinhuangdao Port steam coal closing price was - 21.3%, down 2.0 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the cement price index was 15.8%, down 1.9 percentage points [3].