煤炭 煤炭行业 2026 年策略报告 领先大市-A(维持) 【山证煤炭】煤炭进口数据拆解：25 年 11 月进口煤价继续提升 2025.12.30 【山证煤炭】煤炭月度供需数据点评 11 月：煤价环比上涨，反内卷初心未变 2025.12.17 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 程俊杰 执业登记编码：S0760519110005 邮箱：chengjunjie@sxzq.com 将反内卷进行到底 2026 年 1 月 7 日 行业研究/行业年度策略 投资要点： 首选股票 评级 反内卷扭转煤炭市场预期。2025 年以来，煤炭股受累于煤价下 降，108 号文流向市场后，煤炭股悲观预期随即得到显著缓释。从 核心宏观目标来说，反内卷主要是为了扭转通缩趋势，传导链条为 "通缩→反内卷→盈利提升→通胀"。对煤炭而言，短期看供给控 制，中长期看需求复苏。反内卷需要上下游维持合理利润。"政策 顶"和"政策底"推动合理煤价中枢逐步形成。2016 年供给侧改革 和 2024 年山西查三超是反内卷运动的可比事件，底层驱动影响调 控效果，供给侧改革是债务驱动，山西查三超是安全生产驱动。 ...

智通财经记者从多个信源获悉，今日多部门联合召开动力和储能电池行业座谈会，有参会企业方透露， 会议主要内容还是围绕行业"反内卷"，包括控产能、管价格战、保护专利等相关内容。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is focusing on "anti-involution" and steady growth, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) set to launch a work plan for the petrochemical industry, which is expected to promote the elimination of outdated capacity and lead to healthier industry development [1] Group 1: Policy and Industry Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy aims to accelerate the clearance of high-energy-consuming industries due to cost constraints, with the MIIT planning to implement a new round of work plans for key industries including petrochemicals [2][3] - The work plan for the petrochemical industry (2025-2026) targets an average annual growth of over 5% in added value, stabilization of economic benefits, and significant enhancement of technological innovation capabilities [1][2] Group 2: Industry Specifics - In the calcium carbide sector, total production capacity in China is projected to be 41.66 million tons by 2025, a decrease of 7.1% from the peak in 2022, with the top six companies holding only 23.5% of the market share [3] - The liquid alkali industry is expected to see a total production capacity of 51.66 million tons by 2025, with a low industry concentration of 12.9% among the top six companies, indicating a fragmented market [4] - The PVC industry, heavily tied to the construction and real estate sectors, is projected to have a consumption volume of approximately 18.66 million tons in 2025, reflecting a 7.1% decline from 2020 due to low demand [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and basic chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to accelerate the elimination of excess supply in high-energy-consuming industries, enhancing the competitiveness of leading companies in the industry [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has introduced a growth plan for the petrochemical and chemical industry, aiming for an average annual growth of over 5% in value-added from 2025 to 2026 [3] - The report highlights that the supply-side reforms in the calcium carbide and chlor-alkali industries are likely to improve industry concentration and overall competitiveness [5][6] Summary by Sections Section 1: Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policy aims to eliminate outdated production capacity in high-energy-consuming sectors, including calcium carbide and chlor-alkali, which is expected to lead to a healthier industry development [3][4] - The government has set strict controls on new capacity in overproduced sectors, which will facilitate the modernization and large-scale development of production facilities [4] Section 2: Calcium Carbide Industry - The total production capacity of calcium carbide in China is projected to be 41.66 million tons by 2025, a decrease of 7.1% from the peak in 2022 [5] - The apparent consumption of calcium carbide is expected to decline by 6.45% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 24.9 million tons due to weak downstream PVC demand [5] - The introduction of the "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to enhance industry concentration and improve overall market conditions [5] Section 3: Chlor-alkali Industry - The total production capacity of caustic soda is expected to reach 51.66 million tons by the end of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2.46% [6] - The industry is currently experiencing a downturn, with a projected single-ton gross profit of 744 yuan, indicating a low level of profitability [6] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacity, leading to improvements in supply-side conditions [6] Section 4: PVC Industry - The apparent consumption of PVC is projected to be approximately 18.66 million tons in 2025, a decrease of 7.1% compared to 2020, primarily due to low demand from the construction and real estate sectors [7] - The total production capacity of PVC is expected to be 30.38 million tons, with a low industry concentration of 26% among the top six companies [7] - Stricter environmental regulations and the "anti-involution" policy are expected to drive structural transformation and upgrade within the industry [7] Section 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the calcium carbide-chlor-alkali-PVC industry chain, highlighting companies such as Luhua Technology, Chlor-alkali Chemical, and Xinjiang Tianye as potential beneficiaries of the improving supply-demand dynamics [8]

Core Insights - The wind and solar storage industry is expected to recover profitability amidst oversupply by 2025, with overseas markets becoming a highlight for growth [1][2] - The industry is anticipated to enter a new cycle in 2026 driven by "anti-involution" and technological resonance, focusing on new technology commercialization, global expansion, and supply-demand improvements [1][2] Group 1: 2025 Review and 2026 Outlook - In 2025, the wind and solar storage sector will still face oversupply, but profitability is expected to recover due to anti-involution and increased overseas sales [2] - By December 31, 2025, the CSI 300 Index is projected to increase by 17.66%, the ChiNext Index by 49.57%, and the Electric New Energy Index by 39.47%, ranking 7th out of 30 industries [2] - The implementation of Document No. 136 will accelerate the entry of new energy into the market, with 2026 marking the beginning of a new cycle for the 14th Five-Year Plan in new energy [2] Group 2: Energy Storage - The demand for large-scale energy storage is expected to grow significantly, with North America's AIDC storage demand projected to rise from 8.9 GWh in 2025 to 190 GW by 2030, representing a CAGR of approximately 84% [3] - The demand for green electricity direct connection is anticipated to increase from 78 GWh in 2025 to 475 GW by 2030, with a CAGR of about 44% [3] - European markets are expected to see concentrated deployment in the next 3-5 years, with strong demand for industrial and commercial storage in Europe, Australia, and emerging markets [3] Group 3: Wind Power - Domestic wind power installations are projected to reach 110-120 GW for onshore and 12-16 GW for offshore by 2026, with the 14th Five-Year Plan potentially exceeding 120 GW per year for onshore and 15 GW per year for offshore [4] - The global offshore wind market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 27% over the next 25-30 years [4] - The industry is experiencing a stabilization in onshore turbine prices and limited downward pressure on offshore prices, with increased overseas orders expected to boost profitability for manufacturers [4] Group 4: Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic sector is set for profitability recovery driven by anti-involution, with new technology iterations and global expansion leading growth [5] - China is expected to lead the market, with installations projected between 230-250 GW in 2026, supported by recovering demand in Europe and the U.S. and emerging markets gaining momentum [5] - Key technological advancements include the expansion of BC battery capacity, mass production of perovskite technology, and breakthroughs in silver reduction techniques, which are expected to lower costs and improve margins [5]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened high on January 7, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.29% to 4095.54 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.35% to 14071.35 points, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.41% to 3332.74 points, marking a four-year high [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 53.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The photolithography concept stocks surged, with Guofeng New Materials hitting the limit up for two consecutive days, and several other stocks like Nanda Optoelectronics and Tongcheng New Materials also reaching the limit up [1] - The controllable nuclear fusion concept showed strong performance, with stocks like Wangzi New Materials and China First Heavy Industries hitting the limit up [1] - The brain-computer interface concept continued its strong trend, with stocks such as Innovation Medical and Nanjing Panda achieving three consecutive limit ups [1] - Semiconductor equipment stocks were actively traded, with stocks like Chip Source Microelectronics and Hengkun New Materials hitting the limit up by 20% [1] - The electric grid equipment sector showed strength, with Sanbian Technology and China West Electric reaching the limit up [1] - In contrast, oil and gas stocks performed poorly, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation experiencing a decline [1] Hot Sectors - The storage chip concept was strong, with stocks like Yingxin Development achieving two consecutive limit ups, and others like Puran Shares and Jiangbolong also rising [2] - The nickel concept stocks saw a rally, with stocks like Greeenmei hitting the limit up, supported by a significant increase in nickel prices [3] - The controllable nuclear fusion concept stocks rose, with breakthroughs in experimental methods reported, indicating long-term growth potential for the industry [4] Institutional Insights - Huaxi Securities noted that the spring market rally has started early, maintaining a bullish outlook, and suggested focusing on emerging growth sectors and anti-involution opportunities [5] - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities emphasized that the spring market structure remains unchanged, with high elasticity in thematic opportunities, particularly in AI and cyclical sectors [5] - Dongfang Securities indicated that the Shanghai Composite Index is approaching the 4100-point mark, predicting a slowdown in upward momentum and potential volatility [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the Chinese government is promoting "anti-involution" policies and stable growth initiatives, which are expected to lead to the elimination of outdated production capacity in the petrochemical industry and foster healthy industry development [1][2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) plans to implement a stable growth work plan for the petrochemical industry from 2025 to 2026, targeting an average annual growth of over 5% in the industry's added value [2][3] - The focus will be on structural adjustments, optimizing supply, and eliminating outdated production capacity in key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [2][3] Group 2 - Strict control policies on high-energy-consuming industries such as calcium carbide and caustic soda have been in place since 2016, aiming to limit new production capacity and promote energy-saving and pollution-reduction upgrades [3] - The report indicates that the calcium carbide industry is expected to see an increase in concentration as outdated capacity is eliminated, which will improve overall industry conditions [4] - The liquid alkali industry is currently at a low point, with a projected single-ton gross profit of 744 yuan by the end of 2025, indicating a need for supply-side improvements to drive industry recovery [5] Group 3 - The PVC market is closely tied to the real estate and infrastructure sectors, with a projected apparent consumption of approximately 1,866 million tons in 2025, reflecting a 7.1% decline from 2020 [6][7] - The PVC industry is characterized by low concentration, with the top six companies holding only 26% of the total production capacity, which is expected to change as environmental policies tighten and outdated capacities are phased out [7] - Investment opportunities are identified in various sectors, including the calcium carbide-chloralkali-PVC industry chain and nitrogen fertilizer industry, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [8]

周二期现价格窄幅波动,成交持平,现货体感清淡。宏观层面,新驱动和消息并不多,近期大宗商品表现不算差,汇率升值 可能会带来人民币资产的配置优势,观察商品结构性机会的延续,而在这种环境中,黑色板块需要等待新驱动的形成和资金 的入场。产业层面,五材结构表现维持供需两弱,但铁水产量边际上出现持稳回升,钢材产量回落对炉料造成的负面压力边 际上是弱化的;五材中板材去库压力比较突出,对价格上方区间构成压力,以及压制市场参与者的主动持货意愿,1月份之 后铁水产量回升的确定性增加,产业端会有一些适当补库的行为,来释放部分增量买盘,价格低位存在一些支撑。目前产业 矛盾不突出,宏观和市场风偏略好,策略上单边可以震荡思路对待,1月之后市场资金或更充裕,有利于期现头寸入场, 卷期现止套仍可滚动操作。 【硅铁锰硅】情绪转暖,双硅向上 | HE SECHEN | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | 2026/01/07 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives specific ratings for some individual industries, such as "看多" (Bullish) for glass [1]. Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to continue its strong trend in the short - term and may rise further in 2026 due to macro - policy support, inflation recovery, and capital market reforms [1]. - The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has warned of interest rate risks in the short - term [1]. - Metal prices are generally affected by macro - sentiment and supply - demand fundamentals. Some metals like copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel may show strong trends, while others like alumina may oscillate [1]. - Agricultural products' prices are influenced by factors such as seasonality, supply - demand, and policy. For example, corn is expected to be strong in the short - term [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors like geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand, and cost. For example, the price of crude oil has an upward risk due to geopolitical conflicts [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - Financial - Stock index: Expected to continue a strong trend in the short - term and rise in 2026 with policy support, inflation recovery, and capital inflow [1]. - Bond futures: Favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are warned [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Higher due to supply disruptions and improved macro - sentiment [1]. - Aluminum: Expected to remain strong with tight supply expectations and positive macro - sentiment [1]. - Alumina: Likely to oscillate as supply has room to release but the price is near the cost line [1]. - Zinc: Price has risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: May be strong in the short - term due to supply concerns and policy uncertainties [1]. - Stainless steel: Expected to be strong in the short - term, with suggestions of short - term long positions [1]. - Tin: Strengthened due to positive macro - sentiment, but the follow - up is affected by market sentiment [1]. - Precious metals: Expected to be strong in the short - term due to geopolitical risks and safe - haven demand [1]. - Platinum and palladium: May have strong and wide - range fluctuations in the short - term, with platinum recommended for long - term long positions or arbitrage [1]. Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon: Capacity is expected to decline in the long - term, with high short - term speculative sentiment [1]. - Polysilicon: Terminal installation increases, and big manufacturers are reluctant to sell [1]. - Lithium carbonate: Rising rapidly in the short - term due to peak season and strong demand [1]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Valuations are not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month contracts are restricted, but far - month contracts have upward potential [1]. - Ferrous metals: Facing a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, price is under pressure in the short - term but may be affected by supply policies [1]. - Glass: Bullish, with supply - demand support and low valuation [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with limited downside space [1]. - Coke and coking coal: Likely to oscillate widely, with attention on price drops during the price - cut implementation period [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: May reverse due to seasonal factors and policies after the MPOB December data shows a possible short - term negative impact [1]. - Soybean oil: Recommended for long positions in the oil market, with a suggestion of long Y and short P spreads [1]. - Rapeseed oil: May decline due to global supply increase, but beware of short - term rebounds [1]. - Cotton: Currently in a situation of support but lack of drivers, with future attention on policies and weather [1]. - Sugar: Globally oversupplied, with cost support if the price drops further [1]. - Corn: Expected to be strong in the short - term due to low inventory and potential downstream restocking [1]. - Soybean meal: M03 - M05 is expected to be in a positive spread in the short - term, but operation should be cautious [1]. - Pulp: Expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton [1]. - Logs: Expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - Livestock: Demand is stable, but capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Has an upward risk due to geopolitical conflicts, but supply may increase [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows crude oil, with short - term supply - demand contradictions not prominent [1]. - Asphalt: High profit, with supply and demand affected by various factors [1]. - BR rubber: High - inventory operation, with attention on price trends [1]. - PX and PTA: PX has a strong market, and PTA maintains high - level operation [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Rebounded due to supply - side news, with high downstream demand [1]. - Short - fiber: Follows cost fluctuations [1]. - Styrene: In a weak - balance state, with upward momentum depending on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: Limited upside space due to weak domestic demand, but supported by cost [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Future expectations are mixed, with potential capacity reduction [1]. - LPG: Cost - supported, with short - term risk premiums rising [1].

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a strong upward trend on Tuesday, with sectors such as insurance, securities, non-ferrous metals, and automotive parts performing well, while beauty care, light industry, electric machinery, and banking sectors lagged behind [1] - Key factors supporting the market's positive performance include the increasing attractiveness of RMB assets, expectations for early-year credit issuance, and subsequent policies, along with a positive shift in corporate profit structures driven by advanced manufacturing and overseas enterprises [1] - The domestic monetary policy is expected to maintain a stance of "moderate easing," while the market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will continue its rate-cutting cycle into 2026, contributing to a more accommodative global liquidity environment [1] Group 2 - The A-share market continued to rise on Tuesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through previous highs, led by sectors such as non-ferrous metals, large financials, chemicals, commercial aerospace, and intelligent driving, while computing hardware lagged [2] - The market is experiencing a trend of volume and price increase, establishing a bullish sentiment, and investors are encouraged to increase their risk appetite to seize thematic investment opportunities during the "spring rally" [2] - The ongoing resilience of the overseas economy, likely continued dollar liquidity easing, and the domestic policy of "dual easing" are expected to sustain the bullish trend in the A-share market [2]