大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/26 注：沪深300、上证50、中证500的10年利率用10年期AAA企业债利率，标普500用美国10年期国债利率，德国DAX用德国10年期国债利率 国 债 期 货 交 易 数 据 国债期货 T00 TF00 T01 TF01 收盘价 108.995 106.190 109.010 106.275 涨跌（%） -0.12% -0.08% -0.12% -0.08% 资金利率 R001 R007 SHIBOR-3M 1.4402% 1.8593% 1.6300% 日度变化(BP) -38.00 4.00 0.00 货 币 市 场 国内货币市场 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何 ...

Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has increased by 0.02%, with the latest price at 124.37 yuan as of June 26, 2025 [1] - The trading volume for the 30-year Treasury ETF reached 1.18 billion yuan, with an intraday turnover of 7.28% [1] - The average daily trading volume over the past week was 6.746 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The latest size of the 30-year Treasury ETF is 16.188 billion yuan [2] - The external environment remains uncertain, while internal policies are clearly hedging, leading to a weak recovery in the fundamentals, which makes it difficult to provide a clear directional trend for the bond market [2] - The bond market is expected to continue a narrow range of fluctuations, with factors such as tariff negotiations, monetary conditions, and institutional behavior potentially triggering small wave trends [2] - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, which consists of publicly issued 30-year treasury bonds with a maturity of 25-30 years [2]

6月25日消息，据报道，美联储主席鲍威尔在被问及近期美元走弱时表示，市场一直在消化一系列异常 具有挑战性的环境。他还表示，债券市场目前状况良好，运作正常。 ...

鲍威尔：债券市场现在表现不错，功能发挥正常。 ...

"债王"格罗斯：预计债券市场将出现"小幅熊市"。 ...

Group 1 - The bond market is showing signs of a slight bear market, indicating potential challenges ahead for bond investors [1] - The stock market appears to exhibit characteristics of a mild bull market, suggesting a more favorable environment for equity investors [1]

Group 1: Money Market Overview - The average daily trading volume in the money market increased, with a total transaction volume of 136.5 trillion yuan in May, reflecting a 4.6% decrease month-on-month, while the average daily transaction rose by 10.4% to 7.2 trillion yuan [2] - The overall liquidity in the market remained balanced and loose, with the central bank implementing a 10 basis point interest rate cut and a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio reduction, releasing 1 trillion yuan in funds [3] - The average daily balance in the money market increased to 11.7 trillion yuan, up 1.2% month-on-month, while the average net lending balance of large commercial banks rose by 20.4% [4] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The issuance of bonds decreased to 4.48 trillion yuan in May, down 9.8% month-on-month but up 18.8% year-on-year, with net financing increasing by 68% to 2.11 trillion yuan [6] - The trading volume of bonds increased, with a total of 30 trillion yuan traded in May, reflecting a 6.7% month-on-month increase and a 5.5% year-on-year increase [8] - Bond yields experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield ranging between 1.63% and 1.73%, indicating a steepening yield curve [10] Group 3: Interest Rate Swaps - The interest rate swap curve shifted upward overall, with slight increases in the swap prices for various maturities [11] - The average daily transaction volume for interest rate swaps saw a minor increase, with a total nominal principal amount of 3.2 trillion yuan traded in May [11]

Group 1 - The bond market in 2025 is expected to show increased volatility, leading to a general strengthening of bond fund net values, with over 90% of bond funds experiencing growth [1] - As of June 20, 2025, 6,575 bond funds have reported net value increases, with 6 funds achieving over 10% growth, highlighting significant investment opportunities in the bond market [1] - The top-performing fund, Huashang Fengli Enhanced Open A, recorded a net value increase of 13.75%, while other funds in the top ten also showed substantial growth, primarily in mixed bond and convertible bond categories [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment in China remains positive, with expectations for continued economic growth throughout the year, supported by favorable policies in the real estate and stock markets [2] - Since June, bond fund performance has remained strong, with 141 products showing net value growth of over 1%, indicating robust market conditions [2] - The convertible bond market is currently in a relatively stable valuation range, with potential for breakthroughs if the technology sector performs well [2] Group 3 - The collaboration of domestic economic policies and increased counter-cyclical adjustments is anticipated to promote stable economic growth throughout the year [3] - The overall macro liquidity environment in 2025 is expected to enhance market risk appetite, with investment opportunities in domestic demand, technology, and dividend stocks [3] Group 4 - The bond market is expected to experience a trend-driven performance in the third quarter of 2025, indicating potential for significant market movements [4]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 203.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on June 19, with a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, and the full bid amount was accepted [1] - On the same day, 119.3 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 84.2 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The funding environment appears slightly tighter, with the central bank shifting to net injections; the overnight pledged repo rate has slightly increased to around 1.37%, while the 7-day pledged repo rate rose by nearly 2 basis points [3] - The latest overnight financing guarantee rate in the U.S. is reported at 4.31% [5] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is approximately 1.64%, showing a slight decrease from the previous day [7] Group 4: Bond Market - The closing prices for government bond futures showed a 0.16% increase for the 30-year main contract, while the 10-year main contract remained unchanged; the 5-year and 2-year main contracts saw slight declines of 0.02% and 0.01%, respectively [11] Group 5: Bond Issuance - Poly Development has received approval to register a 5 billion yuan short-term financing bond [16] - Guotai Junan has been granted approval to issue 15 billion yuan in corporate bonds for technological innovation [16] - Lanzhou Bank has been approved to issue up to 5 billion yuan in perpetual capital bonds [16] - The Export-Import Bank of China issued 10 billion yuan in bonds to support Shanghai's foreign trade and development [16]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a reverse repurchase operation of 197.3 billion yuan for 7 days at an interest rate of 1.40% on June 17, resulting in a net withdrawal of 183.3 billion yuan for the day after accounting for maturing reverse repos and MLF [2][4]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - The funding environment remains stable and slightly loose, with overnight pledged repo rates declining by about 2 basis points to around 1.37%, while the 7-day pledged repo rate also saw a slight decrease [4]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is approximately 1.65%, showing a decrease compared to the previous day [7]. Group 4: Government Bond Futures - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.24%, the 10-year by 0.14%, the 5-year by 0.15%, and the 2-year by 0.08% [11]. Group 5: Global Macro - The Bank of Japan maintained its policy benchmark interest rate at 0.50%, in line with market expectations, and announced a reduction in monthly government bond purchases, with a total expected purchase amount of approximately 2 trillion yen from January to March 2027 [13]. Group 6: Bond Market Events - Design Institute approved the issuance of 1 billion yuan in technology innovation corporate bonds, while Huatai Securities received approval for 10 billion yuan in similar bonds. Enjie Co. plans to register for the issuance of up to 1 billion yuan in non-financial corporate debt financing instruments [15].