Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - Due to port congestion and shipping companies' intention to raise price centers in late July, short positions can consider full profit - taking. In the context of geopolitical conflicts, the game is difficult, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [1][3]. - The overall supply - demand situation has not changed significantly, but the SCFIS has continued to rise. The market should pay attention to negotiation results, tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - On June 30, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2123.24 points, up 9.6% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1619.19 points, down 22.3% from the previous period [1]. - On June 27, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1366.47 points, down 1.13% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1442.95 points, up 11.03% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1553.68 points, down 2.04% from the previous period [1]. - On June 27, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1861.51 points, down 8.08 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 2030 USD/TEU, up 10.63% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 2578 USD/FEU, down 7.00% from the previous period [1]. - On June 27, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1369.34 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1640.72 points, up 3.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 1212.09 points, down 3.6% from the previous period [1]. 3.2 Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4, with an expected value of 49.8 and a previous value of 49.4; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50, a two - month high; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.2, with an expected value of 50.5 and a previous value of 50.2; the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2, with an expected value of - 6 and a previous value of - 8.1 [1]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May and the same as in April, returning above the critical point [1]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the same as in May and higher than the expected 51, the highest level since February; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.1, lower than the previous value of 53.7 and higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 52.8, lower than the previous value of 53 and higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low [1]. 3.3 Market Conditions and Strategy - On July 1, the main contract 2508 closed at 1904.9, up 7.80%, with a trading volume of 68,800 lots and an open interest of 40,500 lots, an increase of 1248 lots from the previous day [3]. - Short - term strategy: When the fundamentals do not show an obvious turn, it is recommended to try short positions on rallies. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2000 (with a profit margin of more than 200 points). Short positions can consider taking profits. For risk - preferring investors, it is recommended to try long positions lightly on the 2510 contract below 1300 and set stop - losses and take - profits [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of the volatile international situation, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for each contract, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16%; the company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26%; the daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4]. 3.4 Geopolitical Events - According to the Associated Press on June 29, US President Trump said he had no intention of extending the 90 - day tariff suspension period for most countries and regions beyond July 9. Once the negotiation period expires, trade punishment measures will take effect unless an agreement is reached [5]. - On June 30, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that the Egyptian Foreign Minister discussed the diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear issue and the resumption of negotiations with the Director - General of the International Atomic Energy Agency [5].

Core Viewpoint - Iranian military's recent actions in the Persian Gulf, including the loading of mines onto ships, have raised concerns in Washington about Tehran's potential plans to block the Strait of Hormuz, especially following Israeli missile strikes on Iran [1] Group 1 - The loading of mines, which has not yet been deployed in the Strait of Hormuz, indicates that Tehran may indeed be considering closing one of the world's busiest shipping routes [1] - This development could escalate the already heightened tensions in the region and severely disrupt global trade [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant shift in market dynamics due to Trump's tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts, which have disrupted initial predictions for the year, leading to poor performance of previously favored assets like the US dollar and US stocks, while European markets and emerging markets have emerged as unexpected winners [1][2][13] Group 2 - The US dollar has experienced its worst start to the year since 2005, contrary to expectations that Trump's policies would strengthen it due to anticipated inflation and reduced likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts [2][5] - The S&P 500 index saw a dramatic decline followed by a rapid recovery, with investor sentiment shifting significantly after Trump's decision to pause some tariffs, leading to a new historical high for the index [6][13] Group 3 - European stocks have outperformed US stocks, with the Stoxx 600 index beating the S&P 500 by 16 percentage points as of June 27, marking the best relative performance since 2016 [13] - Emerging markets have finally broken a trend of underperformance against US stocks, with a wealth increase of $1.8 trillion for shareholders in 2025, reaching a record market capitalization of $29 trillion [14] Group 4 - The Japanese yen has rebounded significantly against the dollar, with a nearly 9% decline in the dollar/yen exchange rate, reflecting a shift in market sentiment and demand for safe-haven assets [8][11] - Global bond markets are experiencing increased differentiation, with short-term government bonds performing well due to anticipated rate cuts, while long-term bonds face pressure from rising government debt [12]

Core Insights - Satellite imagery indicates significant construction and excavation activities at Iran's Fordow nuclear facility shortly after U.S. airstrikes in Iran [1] Group 1 - The construction activities at the Fordow facility suggest a potential escalation in Iran's nuclear capabilities [1] - The timing of these developments, following U.S. military actions, raises concerns about regional stability and nuclear proliferation [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities for each commodity, which can be regarded as a form of short - term investment guidance: - **Positive Outlook**: Rubber (Trend intensity: 1) [13] - **Negative Outlook**: PP (Trend intensity: -1), Benzene (Trend intensity: -1) [37][58] - **Neutral Outlook**: Other commodities such as PX, PTA, MEG, etc. (Trend intensity: 0) [11] 2. Core Views of the Report - **PX, PTA**: Cost collapses, valuations decline, and month - spread reverse arbitrage is recommended. For PTA, the market is turning into a stockpiling pattern, and the long - PX short - PTA position should be held [11]. - **MEG**: The upside space may be limited. With the return of Iranian ethylene glycol plants and the concentrated restart of domestic coal - based plants, ethylene glycol is expected to be weak in the medium term [11]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to be oscillating strongly due to factors such as the recovery of overseas tapping operations and changes in import volume [12]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the medium term, due to high supply and supply growth exceeding demand growth, the fundamental pressure is still high [16]. - **Asphalt**: It is in a weak oscillation state, with domestic factory and social inventories accumulating [20]. - **LLDPE**: In the short term, it will oscillate. Although geopolitical issues are uncertain, the supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak [33]. - **PP**: The spot market oscillates, and the trading volume is average. The trend is weak due to factors such as weak demand and low trading enthusiasm [37]. - **Caustic Soda**: The near - term contract will make up for the premium, and there will be a short - term rebound. In the second half of the year, the high - profit and high - output pattern will affect the market, and shorting the profit of caustic soda will be the main strategy [39]. - **Pulp**: It will oscillate. The import pulp market shows a decline in both futures and spot prices, affected by factors such as weak demand and high inventory [43]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with minor price adjustments in some regions [48]. - **Methanol**: It will oscillate in the short term. The port inventory has increased significantly, and the market is affected by macro factors and fundamentals [50]. - **Urea**: It will oscillate in the short term. In the medium term, supply pressure and weak domestic demand are the main contradictions [57]. - **Benzene**: It will oscillate in the short term. In the second half of the year, the supply will increase significantly, and the demand will be weak, leading to a decline in profit [60]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, and it is expected to be weakly adjusted in the short term [64]. - **LPG**: The spot is firm, and the market structure is strengthening. The market is affected by factors such as changes in Saudi CP expectations and device maintenance [66]. - **PVC**: It is strong in the short term but has limited upside space. The high - output and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the export sustainability is to be observed [78]. - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session adjusts narrowly, and the short - term volatility decreases. Low - sulfur fuel oil is weak in the short term, and the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market oscillates at a high level [81]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It will oscillate in the short term, affected by factors such as freight rates and market supply and demand [83]. 3. Summaries by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: An East China factory's 1 million - ton PX unit has started a one - month maintenance. The PX price rebounded, and the night - session naphtha price declined [8]. - **PTA**: Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 - million - ton unit reduced its load, and Honggang Petrochemical's 2.5 - million - ton unit was put into production. The PTA market is turning into a stockpiling pattern [9]. - **MEG**: An Iranian 450,000 - ton/year MEG unit plans to restart this weekend, and another 500,000 - ton/year unit plans to restart next week. The overall start - up load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland has decreased [9]. Rubber - The trading center of the imported rubber market has weakened, and the domestic natural rubber spot price has adjusted narrowly. The overseas tapping operations are gradually recovering, and the raw material purchase price has decreased [14]. - In May 2025, China's natural rubber import volume decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire sample enterprises has changed [15]. Synthetic Rubber - As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese high - cis polybutadiene rubber sample enterprises increased. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports decreased slightly [16]. - In the short term, due to geopolitical instability and strong macro - sentiment, the polybutadiene rubber is expected to oscillate [18]. Asphalt - As of June 26, 2025, the inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample factories increased by 2.5% compared with June 23, and the inventory of 104 social warehouses increased by 0.4% [31]. - The domestic asphalt production increased by 2.4% week - on - week and 21.5% year - on - year [31]. LLDPE - This week, the domestic PE market mostly weakened. The Middle East geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the crude oil market has fallen back, affecting the market sentiment of related products [32]. - The supply pressure of PE in the 2025 09 contract is high, and the demand is weak, especially in the shed film industry [33]. PP - This morning, the domestic PP market was narrowly sorted. The PP futures' upward trend had limited support for the spot market, and downstream factories were cautious in purchasing [37]. Caustic Soda - The purchase price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong has been continuously reduced, and most enterprises' prices have followed the decline [39]. - The caustic soda futures price has continued to fall due to the reduction of the purchase price by Shandong alumina enterprises. However, the 07 contract will face delivery, and the short - term market may rebound [39]. Pulp - This period, the imported pulp market has seen a decline in both futures and spot prices. The reasons include the decline in the futures price, weak demand, and high supply pressure [46]. Glass - The price of domestic float glass original sheets was generally stable, with slight adjustments in some areas [48]. Methanol - The spot price of the port methanol market has mostly increased, and the inventory has increased significantly. The inland market has continued to rise, and some buyers have actively replenished their stocks [52]. Urea - As of June 25, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased by 3.53% week - on - week. The domestic urea market is affected by sentiment and is weakly oscillating [56]. - In the short term, the urea spot price shows some resilience, but in the medium term, supply pressure and weak domestic demand are the main contradictions [57]. Benzene - In 2025, the supply pressure of pure benzene is high, with increased domestic production and imports. The demand structure has changed significantly, and the inventory remains high [59]. - In the first half of the year, benzene maintained a high - profit, high - start - up, and low - inventory pattern, but in the second half of the year, the pattern will reverse [60]. Soda Ash - The domestic soda ash market continues to be weak, with a downward trading center. The supply is oscillating and decreasing, and the downstream demand is lukewarm [64]. LPG - On June 25, 2025, the expected prices of Saudi CP in July and August decreased. The PDH, MTBE, and alkylation start - up rates have changed [68]. - There are many domestic LPG factory and PDH device maintenance plans [74]. PVC - The domestic PVC spot market price has been narrowly adjusted. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed, with increased enterprise maintenance, low demand, high inventory, and mainly export delivery [78]. - The high - output and high - inventory structure of PVC is difficult to change in the short term, and the export sustainability is to be observed [78]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The night - session of fuel oil adjusted narrowly, and the short - term volatility decreased. Low - sulfur fuel oil is weak in the short term, and the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market oscillates at a high level [81]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) will oscillate in the short term. There are changes in freight rates, such as the increase in the SCFIS European route and the decrease in the SCFIS US - West route [83].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current soda ash market has sufficient supply and weak demand. The two major downstream industries, float glass and photovoltaic glass, are in a difficult situation, with inventory on the rise. The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, and soda ash prices may still face downward pressure in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On June 25, 2025, for the soda ash 2508 contract, the latest price was 1171, up 3 with a 0.26% increase, the open interest was 11699, down 29, and the trading volume was 2655. Its opening price was 1166, the highest was 1173, the lowest was 1159, and the settlement price was 1166 [4]. - For the soda ash 2509 contract, the latest price was 1166, up 1 with a 0.09% increase, the open interest was 1561404, down 7874, and the trading volume was 953401. Its opening price was 1158, the highest was 1168, the lowest was 1152, and the settlement price was 1160 [4]. - For the soda ash 2601 contract, the latest price was 1159, up 2 with a 0.17% increase, the open interest was 557916, up 2848, and the trading volume was 125828. Its opening price was 1150, the highest was 1160, the lowest was 1146, and the settlement price was 1154 [4]. 3.2 Spot Market On June 25, domestic soda ash enterprises' quotes remained at a low level. The mainstream ex - factory price of light soda ash was around 1250 - 1350 yuan/ton, and the mainstream delivered price of heavy soda ash to end - users was about 1300 - 1400 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Factors Affecting the Market - **Supply**: Since June, the weekly output of soda ash has remained above 700,000 tons, with significant supply pressure. Although some plants have maintenance plans in the medium - term approaching summer, there are few new maintenance plans in the short term, and the overall supply is at a high level [5]. - **Demand**: The involution in the photovoltaic glass industry has led to production cuts. The price rebound of float glass is based on the expectation of supply tightening. Whether the unplanned cold repairs are realized or not, it is unfavorable for the demand of soda ash. In addition, in the demand for light soda ash, the support from lithium carbonate and daily - use glass is limited, and the substitution ratio of caustic soda is less than 5%, with limited incremental demand. Overall, the demand recovery of downstream industries for soda ash is weak, and procurement is mostly for rigid needs, with a cautious market performance [5]. - **Macro - level**: There are signs of easing in the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and the overnight crude oil futures price has declined. Although the State Council executive meeting has made targeted arrangements for the real estate market recently, the year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment is still declining without an obvious turning point, and its role in driving the demand for the glass industry downstream of soda ash is not clear [5][6].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】美国能源信息署数据显示，截止6月20日当 周，包括战略储备在内的美国原油库存总量8.17632亿桶，比前 一周下降560万桶；美国商业原油库存量4.15106亿桶，比前一 周下降584万桶；美国汽油库存总量2.27938亿桶，比前一周下 降208万桶；美国原油日均产量1343.5万桶，比前周日均产量增 加4000桶，比去年同期日均产量增加23.5万桶；伊朗议会通过 暂停与联合国核查机构合作的法案；特朗普：下周美方将与伊 朗会谈；若伊朗重启核计划，美国将再度实施打击。评：地缘 溢价已经完全回落。供需看，5月OPEC+增产未达预期，OPEC+维 持增产的立场不变，需求偏弱。把握压力位沽空机会。 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普表示，美方将于下周与伊朗 就一项潜在的核协议展开会谈，但他多次强调自己并不认为这 类协议"有多必要"。他补充说，美方此次将提出与此前在中 东局势升级前与伊朗谈判时相同的要求。特朗普表示，自己 "非常确信"以色列与伊朗之间的军事冲突已经结束。评：以 伊冲突结束，避险情绪降温，利空黄金。降息预期增加，美元 走弱，利多黄金。黄金中期震荡格局并未改变，但进一步上 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices have been fluctuating and recently experienced a significant decline, with domestic gold jewelry prices dropping to around 1,000 yuan per gram [1] - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for seven consecutive months, reaching approximately 2,296 tons by the end of May, which is 7% of its foreign exchange reserves, lower than the global average of 15% [1] - The increase in gold reserves is seen as a strategy to enhance the renminbi's value and to mitigate risks associated with the weakening of the US dollar and geopolitical conflicts [2] Group 2 - Current geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and renewed Middle East conflicts, are expected to elevate risk aversion and subsequently boost gold prices [4] - Analysts suggest that while there may be short-term profit-taking pressure on gold prices, the long-term trend remains upward, with recommendations for investors to allocate about 20% of their portfolios to gold assets [4] - The necessity for the central bank to pause gold purchases has decreased, while the demand for optimizing international reserve structures has increased due to changes in the global political and economic landscape [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict between Israel and Iran has cooled down, and the market risk appetite has rebounded. However, the impact of external factors on the A-share market is limited, and the shock center of the stock index is expected to gradually move up. With the approaching of the interim report season, IF and IH with higher performance certainty may be relatively strong, while IC and IM face increased performance verification pressure [1]. - The bond market sentiment is optimistic, but the high valuation restricts the upward space. The short - term policy interest rate is difficult to cut [1]. - The geopolitical risk premium of precious metals has declined, and the prices are oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on gold and silver 08 contracts [1][4]. - The macro - uncertainty persists, and copper prices continue to oscillate. The supply of copper is tight, but the overseas macro situation is uncertain, and the real demand is cautious [4]. - The cost of aluminum is disturbed, and the inventory is at a low level. The supply of alumina is in excess, but the downward drive may slow down. The supply - demand of aluminum is intertwined, and the low inventory provides support [4]. - The fundamentals of nickel are weak, and the price continues to decline. The supply of the nickel industry chain is in excess, but the price of nickel ore is firm. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling call options [4]. - The supply of lithium carbonate is loose, and the price is under pressure. The demand for lithium is weak, while the supply is increasing, and the inventory of smelters is rising [4][6]. - The high inventory of polysilicon suppresses the rebound. The supply - demand pattern of the polysilicon market is gradually becoming looser. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling call options [6]. - The geopolitical risk premium of steel has declined, and the prices are close to the upper limit of the range. The fundamentals of steel are not significantly changed, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to hold the strategies of selling out - of - the - money call and put options on rebar [6]. - Coke has completed four rounds of price cuts, and the spot price is approaching the bottom while the futures price rebounds first. The long - term supply of coking coal is in excess, but the short - term supply tightens. It is recommended that cautious investors close their short positions in coking coal and wait and see for new orders [8]. - The glass has stronger support than soda ash. The supply of soda ash is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to hold short positions. The performance of float glass is also weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions and some arbitrage strategies [8]. - The geopolitical premium of crude oil may further decline. It is recommended to close the long - call option positions [8]. - The import volume of methanol may not decrease significantly, and the futures price may face a correction. The positive impact of the Middle - East conflict is fading [10]. - The demand for polyolefins is poor, and the price is expected to decline. The demand for polyolefins is weak, and the crude oil premium is retreating [10]. - The inventory of the cotton industry is decreasing, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy. The supply of cotton is expected to be tight, and the short - term fundamentals have no obvious negative drive [10]. - The demand for rubber is not fulfilled, and the port inventory is increasing. The supply of rubber is increasing while the demand is decreasing, and the price is under pressure [10]. Summary by Categories Stock Index - Geopolitical conflict cools down, market risk appetite rebounds, A - share oscillates upward on Monday, small and micro - cap indexes strengthen, and the trading volume of the two markets slightly rebounds to 1.15 trillion yuan [1]. - The performance of IF and IH may be relatively strong during the interim report season, while IC and IM face performance verification pressure [1]. Treasury Bond - The bond market sentiment is optimistic due to loose liquidity, but the high valuation and the difficulty of short - term policy interest rate cuts restrict the upward space [1]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical risk premium declines, gold and silver prices oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on gold and silver 08 contracts [1][4]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The supply is tight, but the overseas macro situation is uncertain, and the real demand is cautious. Copper prices continue to oscillate in the short term [4]. - Aluminum: The cost is disturbed, and the inventory is low. The supply of alumina is in excess, but the downward drive may slow down. The supply - demand of aluminum is intertwined, and the low inventory provides support [4]. - Nickel: The fundamentals are weak, the supply of the industry chain is in excess, but the price of nickel ore is firm. It is recommended to hold the strategy of selling call options [4]. Energy and Chemicals - Polypropylene (PP): The event - driven positive factors fade, and the supply is in excess. It is recommended to open new short positions in PP2509 [2]. - Polysilicon: The high inventory suppresses the rebound. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling call options on polysilicon PS2508 - C - 34500 [2][6]. - Aluminum: The inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to hold the previous long positions in AL2508 [2]. - Crude Oil: The geopolitical premium may further decline. It is recommended to close the long - call option positions [8]. - Methanol: The import volume may not decrease significantly, and the futures price may face a correction [10]. - Polyolefins: The demand is poor, and the price is expected to decline [10]. Steel and Iron - Rebar: The geopolitical risk premium declines, and the price is close to the upper limit of the range. It is recommended to hold the strategies of selling out - of - the - money call and put options [6]. - Hot - rolled Coil: The fundamentals change little, and the price oscillates. It is recommended to wait and see for new orders [6]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand may be slightly looser in June - July, and the price follows the steel price to oscillate in a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see for new orders [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: The long - term supply is in excess, but the short - term supply tightens. Cautious investors are recommended to close their short positions and wait and see for new orders [8]. - Coke: The fundamentals show a double - decline in supply and demand. The spot price is approaching the bottom, and the futures price rebounds first [8]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda Ash: The supply is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to hold short positions and some arbitrage strategies [8]. - Float Glass: The performance is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions and some arbitrage strategies [8]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: The inventory of the industry is decreasing, and the supply is expected to be tight. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10]. - Rubber: The demand is not fulfilled, the port inventory is increasing, and the price is under pressure [10].

石油天然气 地缘冲突扰动供应，油价显著上涨 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 24 日│中国内地 行业月报 以伊冲突扩大引发潜在供应担忧，6 月以来油价大幅反弹 证券研究报告 5 月 OPEC+继续上调未来一个月产量目标，中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性 进展，叠加美国宣布对伊朗实施新一轮制裁，国际油价先下跌后反弹。6 月 以来，以伊冲突扩大致原油潜在供应风险上升，叠加 4-5 月 OPEC+实际供 应增量低于目标上调幅度，以及北半球传统需求旺季将至，据 Wind，6 月 23 日 WTI/Brent 期货价格较 5 月末上涨 12.7%/11.9%至 68.51/71.48 美元/ 桶。我们认为中东地缘局势及 OPEC+实际增产进度，在全球需求前景偏淡 的背景下为短期重要边际影响因素；长期而言，油价中枢存底部支撑，具备 增产降本能力及天然气业务增量的高分红能源龙头企业或将显现配置机遇。 需求侧：中美炼厂开工逐步提升，北半球需求旺季将至 据 IEA，受全球宏观经济前景不确定性仍存及新能源替代影响，全球石油需 求增长继续放缓，预计 25/26 年石油需求增长放缓至 72/74 万桶/天（上月 预测为 74/76 万桶/ ...