银河期货指出，澳洲锂精矿发运稳定，行业会议上头部企业对明年乐观，12月排产数据超预期，供需矛 盾不突出，中美通话后市场情绪向好，资金涌入2605合约，短期情绪亢奋，下跌空间有限。 中泰期货分析称，近期基本面边际有走弱迹象，但中长期锂需求仍然向好对价格支撑较强，日内资金再 次涌入，市场情绪升温，短期碳酸锂以偏强震荡运行为主。 11月26日，国内期市有色金属板块多数飘红。其中，碳酸锂期货主力合约开盘报97740.0元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至发稿，碳酸锂主力最高触及99880.0元，下方探低95860.0元，涨幅达1.56%附 近。 目前来看，碳酸锂行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于碳酸锂后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 混沌天成期货表示，短期锂电需求高位，供应稳定，去库趋势维持，市场风险偏好提升，锂价短暂整理 后迅速拉涨。但市场关注度高，价格波动剧烈，宏观氛围变化或导致锂价急涨急跌，需注意风险控制。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. Prices are likely to continue weak and volatile in the short term, but may see a marginal inflection point with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement [2] - Iron ore has a high overall inventory but structural contradictions, with spot having some support. It is expected to operate within a volatile range [5] - Ferroalloy prices have declined significantly, but there is hope for a turnaround in market sentiment in December. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment [9] - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to phased emotional disturbances [13][14] - Polysilicon is caught between reality and expectations, with prices expected to fluctuate widely within a range. Attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies and price feedback in the industrial chain [16] - Glass prices are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, with limited room for further decline [19] - Soda ash is expected to maintain a weak operation until the glass demand shows substantial improvement [21] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3106 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.550%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3309 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (0.424%), and the spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai also increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with inventory continuously decreasing, presenting a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have a continuous recovery in terminal demand, but high inventory levels [2] - South Korea's anti - dumping tax on Chinese steel products will affect steel exports to some extent [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 794.00 yuan/ton, up 0.44% (+3.50). The weighted position was 92.57 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 49.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.87% [4] Strategy Viewpoints - Overseas iron ore shipments decreased in the latest period, with reductions from Australia and Brazil. The shipments of the four major mines all declined. Non - mainstream country shipments reached a high for the year, and the near - end arrivals increased [5] - The average daily hot - metal output decreased, with more blast furnace overhauls than restarts due to weak downstream demand and poor profits. The steel mill profitability rate continued to decline [5] - Port inventories decreased slightly, and steel mill inventories were consumed. There is a structural contradiction in iron ore, and the spot has some support [5] Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Market Information - On November 25, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 0.11% at 5636 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 204 yuan/ton over the futures [7] - The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed down 0.15% at 5448 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot price was 5400 yuan/ton, with a discount of 48 yuan/ton to the futures [8] Strategy Viewpoints - Ferroalloy prices declined significantly due to weak market sentiment, cost - side pressure on coal, and a macro - policy window period. However, market expectations for a December interest - rate cut have risen, and the decline in coking coal prices may end [9] - It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and corresponding price inflection points, and be cautious about overseas sentiment fluctuations [9] - Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore situation. Ferrosilicon has no obvious supply - demand contradictions, with low operational cost - effectiveness [10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 8960 yuan/ton, up 0.22% (+20). The weighted contract position increased by 3092 hands. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged [12] - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 54730 yuan/ton, up 2.65% (+1415). The weighted contract position increased by 3595 hands. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged [15] Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon production decreased, and the demand from polysilicon and organic silicon showed different trends. The cost side provides support, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [13][14] - Polysilicon production is decreasing, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally. However, prices are under pressure in the short term and are expected to fluctuate widely within a range [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1014 yuan/ton, up 0.10% (+1). The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 5.60 million cases (0.09%). The long and short positions of the top 20 holders decreased [18] - The soda ash main contract closed at 1173 yuan/ton, down 0.85% (-10). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 6.29 million tons (0.09%), with decreases in both heavy and light soda ash inventories. The long positions of the top 20 holders decreased, and the short positions increased [20] Strategy Viewpoints - The expectation of cold - repair of glass production lines in December is increasing, with insufficient downstream demand and weakening price expectations. Glass prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [19] - Soda ash supply exceeds demand, with differentiated demand. High inventory and weak demand are the main negative drivers, and it is expected to maintain a weak operation [21]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes that its stock price is influenced by multiple factors including macroeconomic conditions and market sentiment, while its performance adheres strictly to accounting standards and is audited for accuracy [2]. Group 1: Company Performance and Strategy - The recent pre-disclosure of share reduction is primarily aimed at allowing former employees to exit their incentive stock options, which is intended to optimize the incentive mechanism and enhance its effectiveness [2]. - The company asserts that its main business remains stable and that it is progressing steadily in new market segments [2]. - Future efforts will focus on operational improvements and value enhancement to reward investors with solid performance, with relevant updates to be disclosed as required [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity market showed an adjustment trend yesterday, with the prices of finished steel products rising slightly. The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall. The terminal demand for hot-rolled coils continued to recover, but the inventory level remained high. In the long term, the steel consumption side still has the basis for gradual recovery. However, in the short term, due to weak demand in the off-season and high plate inventory, prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly. With the implementation of policies and the improvement of the macro environment, steel demand is expected to have a marginal inflection point later [2]. - For iron ore, the overall inventory is still high, but there are structural contradictions. In the short term, the molten iron output is temporarily stable, and the demand is flat. It is expected to operate within the shock range [5]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the market risk appetite has weakened comprehensively. Although the downward pressure on prices still exists, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point. For the black sector, it may be more cost-effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short [10][11]. - For industrial silicon, the supply side continues to shrink, and the demand side has no significant marginal change. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to phased emotional disturbances [14][15]. - For polysilicon, it is still in a tug-of-war between reality and expectations. The supply-demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short-term destocking range is expected to be limited, and the price will fluctuate widely within the range [17]. - For glass, multiple production lines are expected to undergo cold repairs in December, and the supply-demand mismatch has been alleviated. Although the policy has released positive signals, the supply-demand structure is still imbalanced, and the short-term market is expected to continue to operate weakly [20]. - For soda ash, the supply pressure remains high, but the demand side has shown marginal improvement, and the cost support still exists. It is expected to maintain a shock consolidation pattern in the short term [22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Rebar - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3089 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (1.046%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 43,558 tons, a net increase of 338 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.432705 million lots, a decrease of 80,706 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall. The steel demand has officially entered the off-season, and the subsequent reduction rhythm needs to be paid attention to. In the short term, due to weak demand in the off-season, prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly. However, with the implementation of policies and the improvement of the macro environment, steel demand is expected to have a marginal inflection point later [2]. Hot-Rolled Coils - **Market Information**: The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3295 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.764%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 113,732 tons, a decrease of 2,656 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.082089 million lots, a decrease of 42,534 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot-rolled coils in Lecong was 3310 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3290 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The terminal demand for hot-rolled coils continued to recover, but the output decreased slightly, and the inventory level remained high. The steel demand has officially entered the off-season, and the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils still exists. The subsequent reduction rhythm needs to be paid attention to. In the short term, due to weak demand in the off-season and high plate inventory, prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly. However, with the implementation of policies and the improvement of the macro environment, steel demand is expected to have a marginal inflection point later [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 790.50 yuan/ton, up 0.64% (+5.00), with a position change of -10,742 lots to 449,800 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 922,800 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 51.75 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.14% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased month-on-month in the latest period. On the demand side, the daily average molten iron output decreased month-on-month, and the number of blast furnace overhauls was more than that of restarts. The inventory of iron ore was still high overall, but there were structural contradictions. In the short term, the molten iron output was temporarily stable, and the demand was flat. It was expected to operate within the shock range [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Market Information - On November 24, the main contract of silicomanganese (SM601) rebounded by more than 1.3% during the session and finally closed up 0.43% at 5630 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 silicomanganese in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 210 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) once rebounded nearly 1% during the session and then fell back, finally closing down 0.29% at 5456 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5400 yuan/ton, with a discount of 56 yuan/ton to the futures price [7][9]. - The silicomanganese price showed a weak trend, and attention should be paid to whether it can be supported at the 5600 yuan/ton level. The ferrosilicon price was still in the shock range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the support situation at the 5400 yuan/ton level [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the past week, the market risk appetite weakened comprehensively. Affected by factors such as the weakening of the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December and the decline in coking coal prices, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased significantly. However, with the increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December and the possible end of the decline in coking coal prices, although the downward pressure on prices still exists, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point. For the black sector, it may be more cost-effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short. The fundamentals of silicomanganese are still not ideal, and attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore. The supply and demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and the operability is relatively low [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 8940 yuan/ton, down 0.22% (-20). The weighted contract position increased by 982 lots to 428,650 lots. The spot price of 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 410 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a basis of 10 yuan/ton after converting to the futures price [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon continued to weaken yesterday. The short-term funds were fast in and out, and the sentiment changed rapidly. Attention should be paid to the volatility risk. On the fundamental side, the weekly output of industrial silicon continued to decline, and the supply side continued to shrink. The demand side had no significant marginal change. The cost side provided support for the futures price. In the short term, the price of industrial silicon was expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to phased emotional disturbances [14][15]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 53,315 yuan/ton, down 0.08% (-45). The weighted contract position increased by 3363 lots to 235,435 lots. The average price of N-type granular silicon in the SMM caliber was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N-type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N-type reclaimed material was 52.25 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of -1065 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Polysilicon was still in a tug-of-war between reality and expectations. The supply-demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short-term destocking range was expected to be limited. The prices of silicon wafers and cells had loosened, and the price pressure still existed. The spot price of upstream silicon materials was relatively firm, facing the price feedback pressure from downstream. The price would fluctuate widely within the range under the influence of news. The focus in the future was still on the progress of the platform company and the price feedback of the industrial chain [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Monday, the main contract of glass closed at 1013 yuan/ton, up 2.63% (+26). The quoted price of large plates in North China was 1070 yuan, down 10 from the previous day; the quoted price in Central China was 1080 yuan, down 10 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.303 million boxes, up 56,000 boxes (+0.09%). In terms of positions, the top 20 holders of long orders increased their positions by 9 lots today, and the top 20 holders of short orders decreased their positions by 39,552 lots [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Multiple glass production lines are expected to undergo cold repairs in December, and the supply-demand mismatch has been alleviated. Although the policy has released positive signals, the supply-demand structure is still imbalanced, and the short-term market is expected to continue to operate weakly [20]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Monday, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1183 yuan/ton, up 1.11% (+13). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1153 yuan, up 13 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.6444 million tons, down 62,900 tons (-3.70%), of which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 887,300 tons, down 19,800 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 757,100 tons, down 43,100 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 holders of long orders decreased their positions by 21,776 lots today, and the top 20 holders of short orders decreased their positions by 50,267 lots [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure in the soda ash market remains high, but the demand side has shown marginal improvement, and the cost support still exists. It is expected to maintain a shock consolidation pattern in the short term [22].

Group 1 - The market sentiment score decreased slightly to 3.8 as of November 21, down from 3.9 the previous week, indicating a bearish outlook from a sentiment perspective [6][10][11] - The overall trading activity in the market has declined, with total trading volume for the week down 8.74% compared to the previous week, averaging 18650.36 billion CNY per day [13][15] - The short-term trend scores for industries such as banking, textiles, defense, and petrochemicals have shown an upward trend, with petrochemicals having the highest short-term score of 83.05 [35][36] Group 2 - The price-volume consistency indicator has rapidly declined, suggesting a decrease in the correlation between capital attention and stock price increases, leading to a drop in market sentiment [10][11][12] - The industry trading volatility has continued to rise, indicating increased activity in capital switching between sectors, although the growth rate has slowed down [19][21] - The financing balance ratio has continued to rise, reflecting an increase in leveraged capital sentiment, suggesting a more active investment environment [25][27] Group 3 - The model indicates a preference for small-cap and value styles, with strong signals for both, although the 5-day RSI relative to the 20-day RSI has decreased rapidly, warranting further observation [35][44] - The industry crowding degree shows a negative correlation with weekly price changes, indicating that sectors with high crowding, such as electric power equipment and basic chemicals, have experienced significant declines [39][41] - The report highlights that industries with lower crowding, such as automobiles and machinery, have shown smaller declines, suggesting potential long-term investment value [39][41]

Group 1 - Market sentiment score has slightly decreased to 3.8 as of November 21, down from 3.9 the previous week, indicating a bearish outlook [7][11] - The consistency between price and volume has weakened significantly, showing a decline in market engagement and a drop in risk appetite, particularly reflected in the decreasing trading volume of the Sci-Tech 50 index [11][18] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market has decreased by 8.74% week-on-week, with an average daily trading volume of 18650.36 billion yuan [15][17] Group 2 - The banking, textile and apparel, defense, petrochemical, and comprehensive sectors have shown an upward trend in short-term scores, with the petrochemical sector leading at a score of 83.05 [40][41] - The correlation between sector crowding and weekly price changes is negative at -0.24, indicating that sectors with high crowding, such as electric power equipment and basic chemicals, have experienced significant declines [44][46] - The current model indicates a preference for small-cap and value styles, with strong signals for both, although the strength of these signals may need further observation [50][52]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The A - share market may experience a weak rebound after reaching the bottom, while the futures market has increased trading volume and open interest, and the basis of each variety may widen again. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to take a neutral - to - long approach to the T - contract. In the agricultural product market, different varieties have different trends such as price fluctuations and supply - demand changes. The black metal market is affected by factors like production capacity, cost, and policy, with steel prices fluctuating within a range. The non - ferrous metal market is influenced by the Fed's policy and supply - demand fundamentals, with precious metals waiting for a directional breakthrough [20][22]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures** - Core view: The A - share market may experience a weak rebound after reaching the bottom. The futures market has increased trading volume and open interest, and the basis of each variety may widen again [20]. - Trading strategy: Control positions in the unilateral trading, consider IM\IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use the double - buying strategy for options [20]. - **Treasury Futures** - Core view: The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to take a neutral - to - long approach to the T - contract and pay attention to potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities in the next - quarter contracts [22]. - Trading strategy: Take a neutral - to - long approach and buy T - contracts on dips in the short - term. Pay attention to potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities in the next - quarter contracts [22]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal** - Core view: The supply pressure is emerging, and domestic supply is abundant. The price of rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate, and soybean meal has price support [25]. - Trading strategy: Short - sell a small amount of long - dated rapeseed meal contracts, hold off on arbitrage, and use the short - strangle strategy for options [26]. - **Sugar** - Core view: International sugar prices are slightly stronger, while domestic sugar prices are weaker. However, the downward space for domestic sugar prices is limited [28][29]. - Trading strategy: Consider buying on dips in the short - term, conduct long January and short May arbitrage, and sell put options at low prices [29]. - **Oilseeds and Oils** - Core view: Palm oil may fluctuate weakly, soybean oil follows the overall trend, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue to destock [32]. - Trading strategy: Trade in a short - term range, hold off on arbitrage, and hold off on options [32]. - **Corn/Corn Starch** - Core view: The spot price of corn is strong, and the futures price fluctuates at a high level. The price of corn starch is also affected [34]. - Trading strategy: Short - buy the December CBOT corn on dips, short - sell the January corn on rallies, and wait for the May and July corn to pull back. Narrow the spread between January corn and starch. Hold off on options [34]. - **Hogs** - Core view: The supply pressure is increasing, and the spot price is falling. Although there is some support, the overall supply is still high [37]. - Trading strategy: Hold off on trading, hold off on arbitrage, and use the short - strangle strategy for options [37]. - **Peanuts** - Core view: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom. The new - season peanuts are on the market, but oil mills have not purchased in large quantities [40]. - Trading strategy: Short - sell the January peanuts on rallies, hold off on the May peanuts, conduct reverse arbitrage for the January - May spread, and sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [40]. - **Eggs** - Core view: The demand is average, and the price is stable with a slight decline. The supply of laying hens is still high, and the short - term price increase space is limited [44]. - Trading strategy: Hold off on trading in the short - term [45]. - **Apples** - Core view: The demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. The apple quality is relatively poor, and the effective inventory is expected to be low [51]. - Trading strategy: Hold off on trading, hold off on arbitrage, and hold off on options [51]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn** - Core view: The fundamental contradiction is not significant, and the cotton price fluctuates mainly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season [54]. - Trading strategy: The US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to fluctuate in a range. Hold off on arbitrage and options [54]. Black Metals - **Steel** - Core view: Steel prices fluctuate within a range, and there is still room to reduce hot metal production. The cost has support, but the upward pressure still exists [57]. - Trading strategy: The price will maintain a fluctuating trend. Long the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar on dips. Hold off on options [58]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - Core view: The downward risk has been released. The short - term is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to go long on the far - month contracts on dips after the market stabilizes [61]. - Trading strategy: Stop losses on short positions in the short - term. Go long on the far - month contracts on dips after the market stabilizes. Continue to hold the reverse arbitrage of coking coal January/May contracts. Hold off on options [61]. - **Iron Ore** - Core view: The price is expected to run weakly at a high level. The supply is loose, and the demand is low [63]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a short - bias trading strategy. Hold off on arbitrage and options [63]. - **Ferroalloys** - Core view: The price fluctuates at the bottom under the trend of production reduction. The fundamentals are in a pattern of both supply and demand declining, and the cost has support [64]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. Hold off on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [65]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals** - Core view: The Fed's "hawk - dove" divergence intensifies, and precious metals fluctuate and wait for a direction. The US dollar index exerts pressure, but the downward space is limited [67]. - Trading strategy: Conservative investors hold off on trading, while aggressive investors can try to go long on dips near the 20 - day moving average. Hold off on arbitrage and options [68]. - **Copper** - Core view: Short - term attention should be paid to the lower support. The supply is expected to increase, and the price may fluctuate in a high - level range [70]. - Trading strategy: Hold long positions below 86,000 yuan/ton in the short - term. Adopt a low - buying strategy in the long - term. Hold off on arbitrage and options [70]. - **Alumina** - Core view: The substantial production reduction has not been realized, and attention should be paid to the transfer of warehouse receipts to cash. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [74]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be weak until the warehouse receipts are circulated. Hold off on arbitrage and options [74]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - Core view: The dovish speech of Fed officials eases the pressure on Shanghai aluminum. The fundamental support for the medium - term price is still there [77]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to stabilize in the short - term. Pay attention to the narrowing of the spread between East China and Central China in the spot market. Hold off on options [78]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - Core view: The macro - expectation disturbance still exists, and the alloy price mainly follows the aluminum price. The cost provides support, but the demand is cautious [81]. - Trading strategy: The price may stabilize due to the repair of the interest - rate cut expectation. Hold off on arbitrage and options [81]. - **Zinc** - Core view: The price fluctuates widely. The smelting profit is compressed, and the production may be lower than expected. The consumption is in the off - season [85]. - Trading strategy: Try to go long on dips. Be vigilant about the influence of overseas funds on the zinc price. Hold off on arbitrage and options [85]. - **Lead** - Core view: The price fluctuates in a range. The supply recovers, but the consumption weakens, and the inventory accumulates [87]. - Trading strategy: The price may fluctuate weakly in a range. Hold off on arbitrage and options [88]. - **Nickel** - Core view: High inventory suppresses the upward space of the nickel price. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price rebound is limited [91]. - Trading strategy: Short - sell on rallies. Hold off on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [92]. - **Stainless Steel** - Core view: The supply and demand are both weak, and the raw material price is under pressure. The cost is declining, and the price rebound is weak [95]. - Trading strategy: No specific trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Industrial Silicon** - Core view: The price may pull back in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips after a sufficient pull - back. The supply - demand balance is tight during the dry season [97]. - Trading strategy: Buy on dips after a sufficient pull - back. Conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage for Si2601 and Si2602. Sell put options after the pull - back [100]. - **Polysilicon** - Core view: Pay attention to the establishment of the platform company and short - sell on rallies [101]. - Trading strategy: Short - sell on rallies. Hold off on arbitrage [101]. Others - **Shipping** - Core view: There are still differences in the market, and the price fluctuates. Attention should be paid to the subsequent adjustment of shipping schedules [15]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil** - Core view: Geopolitical risks have cooled down, and the oil price runs weakly [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Asphalt** - Core view: The supply and demand remain weak, and the cost runs weakly [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Fuel Oil** - Core view: High - sulfur fuel oil is weak, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil increases more than expected [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **PX & PTA** - Core view: The sentiment has cooled down, and the reality is weak [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Ethylene Glycol** - Core view: There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation, and the price declines [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Short Fiber** - Core view: Domestic demand declines seasonally [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **PR (Bottle Chips)** - Core view: The demand expectation in the off - season weakens [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - Core view: The import volume increases, and the inventory is expected to rise [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Propylene** - Core view: The load decreases, but the supply pressure is still large [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Plastic PP** - Core view: The total import and export volume of PE&PP decreases [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Caustic Soda** - Core view: The price of caustic soda is weak [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **PVC** - Core view: The price hovers at the bottom [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Soda Ash** - Core view: The price fluctuates weakly [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Glass** - Core view: The demand is weak [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Methanol** - Core view: The price continues to fluctuate [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Urea** - Core view: The quotation is weakly stable, and the transaction is weak [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Paper Pulp** - Core view: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the futures market is under pressure [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Log** - Core view: The spot price of logs runs weakly [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Offset Printing Paper** - Core view: The supply pressure remains high, and the rebound is weak [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Natural Rubber and 20 -号 Rubber** - Core view: The concentrated cancellation of contract warehouse receipts reaches a new low since 2012 [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text. - **Butadiene Rubber** - Core view: The inventory of tire finished products accumulates year - on - year and month - on - month [17]. - No trading strategy provided in the given text.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. The price is likely to continue weak and volatile in the short term, but there may be a marginal inflection point in demand with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement [3] - For iron ore, in the macro vacuum period, the market is likely to follow the real - world logic. It has strong supply, stable demand, and some resource shortages, and is expected to operate within a volatile range [6] - For ferroalloys, although the downward pressure on prices still exists, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, and the positive impact of December's macro - events on market sentiment is expected. It is recommended to focus on the inflection point of market sentiment and corresponding price changes [11] - For industrial silicon, it is expected to continue to operate in a volatile manner in the short term, and attention should be paid to phased emotional disturbances [15][16] - For polysilicon, it is caught between reality and expectations. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited, and it is expected to oscillate widely within a range [18] - For glass, it is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, with limited room for further decline [21] - For soda ash, it is expected to maintain a weak operation before the glass demand shows substantial improvement [23] Group 3: Summary of Each Category Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3057 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.229%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in Tianjin decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3270 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.091%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai remained unchanged [2] Strategy Views - Rebar has both supply and demand increasing, with continuous inventory reduction, showing a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have rising terminal demand, slightly decreasing production, but still high inventory levels. In the short term, due to weak off - season demand and high plate inventory, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile. However, with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement, steel demand may have a marginal inflection point [3] Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract (I2601) closed at 785.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.38% (- 3.00). The position changed by - 16984 hands to 46.05 million hands. The weighted position was 92.33 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 788 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 52.34 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.25% [5] Strategy Views - Supply: Overseas iron ore shipments rebounded significantly. Both Australian and Brazilian shipments increased, and shipments from non - mainstream countries also rose. Demand: The daily average pig iron output decreased, with more blast furnace overhauls than restarts. Inventory: Port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill inventory was consumed. Overall, the total inventory is still high, with some resource shortages, and it is expected to operate within a volatile range [6] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On November 21, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.14% at 5606 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 234 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed up 0.48% at 5472 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5450 yuan/ton, at a discount of 22 yuan/ton to the futures [8][10] Strategy Views - The market risk appetite weakened last week. Ferroalloy prices declined significantly but may stop falling. It is recommended to focus on the inflection point of market sentiment and corresponding price changes. For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short - sell. Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not good, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore situation. Ferrosilicon's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, with low operational cost - effectiveness [11][12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2601) closed at 8960 yuan/ton, down 1.27% (- 115). The weighted position changed by - 14960 hands to 427668 hands. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, and the basis was 390 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9800 yuan/ton, and the basis was 40 yuan/ton [14] - Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2601) closed at 53360 yuan/ton, up 1.73% (+ 910). The weighted position changed by - 6326 hands to 232072 hands. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, and the basis was - 1060 yuan/ton [17] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The price continued to weaken last Friday. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is stable. The cost provides support, and it is expected to operate in a volatile manner in the short term [15][16] - Polysilicon: It is caught between reality and expectations. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited, and it is expected to oscillate widely within a range [18] Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: The main contract closed at 989 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.98% (- 20). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 5.60 million boxes (0.09%) week - on - week [20] - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1158 yuan/ton on Friday, down 2.03% (- 24). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 6.29 million tons week - on - week [22] Strategy Views - Glass: The expectation of cold - repair of production lines in December is increasing, but the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [21] - Soda ash: Although some devices were overhauled last week, the market is still oversupplied. The demand is divided, and it is expected to maintain a weak operation before the glass demand improves [23]

Summary of Conference Call on Commodity Cycle Industry Industry Overview - The commodity cycle industry has a long-term annualized return and volatility higher than market benchmarks, with a specific focus on the downward ratio of non-ferrous metals [1][4] - Key sectors to monitor include non-ferrous metals, coal, and steel, influenced by monetary, financial, and supply-demand factors [1][5] Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Logic**: The investment logic in the commodity cycle industry is based on three dimensions: economic cycles, industry prosperity, and market sentiment. Timing is crucial due to the cyclical nature of the industry [2] - **Policy Impact**: Policy changes serve as significant catalysts for sub-industries within the commodity cycle, necessitating a comprehensive evaluation of valuation and performance turning points [1][8] - **Commodity Prices**: Commodity prices are direct indicators of industry prosperity, with stock market performance often leading commodity price peaks [1][10] - **Profitability Forecasts**: Profitability forecasts for coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals show a clearer leading relationship with stock prices compared to oil and petrochemicals [3][13] Key Sectors of Focus 1. **Non-Ferrous Metals**: Includes precious metals (e.g., gold), industrial metals (e.g., copper, aluminum), and energy metals (e.g., lithium). Influenced by monetary attributes and global economic conditions [6] 2. **Coal and Steel**: Heavily impacted by domestic supply-demand dynamics and commodity price correlations [6] 3. **Oil and Petrochemicals**: Stock market performance is more strongly guided by oil price increases driven by economic growth, with caution advised regarding geopolitical disruptions [7] Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: High dividend yield sectors, particularly coal, steel, and petrochemicals, exhibit strong defensive characteristics during market downturns [15] - **Emerging Technologies**: The development of new materials in the chemical industry, such as membrane materials and carbon fibers, is increasing demand [3][12] - **Long-term Outlook**: Analysts predict that the current upward cycle in commodity prices is not yet over, with long-term growth potential remaining due to low valuation levels across sub-industries [17] Conclusion - The commodity cycle industry is poised for potential growth driven by favorable policies and market conditions. Non-ferrous metals and coal are highlighted as sectors with significant investment opportunities, while the petrochemical sector requires careful monitoring of oil price movements.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the new energy sector is experiencing significant pullbacks due to the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule on market sentiment, alongside a rapid prior increase in prices of lithium carbonate, iron lithium cathodes, and electrolytes [1] Group 2 - In terms of fundamentals, the lithium carbonate market has shown emotional characteristics, with prices recently surpassing 100,000 yuan/ton, primarily driven by a shortage in ore supply; however, the actual supply-demand tightness does not justify the current price levels, indicating an influence of market sentiment [2] - The focus in the materials sector is on the long-term contract prices between material manufacturers and leading battery manufacturers; while historically, leading battery manufacturers have delayed negotiations, this year may differ due to full order books from downstream customers, potentially limiting the duration of such delays [2] - Overall, there are no significant changes in fundamentals, with a positive outlook for energy storage demand; Q1 2026 is expected to remain strong despite being a traditionally weak season, but ongoing attention is needed on market sentiment and battery manufacturers' production plans, suggesting a continuation of a volatile market in the short term [2] - Interested investors may consider low-entry opportunities in the sector through various ETFs, including the New Energy Vehicle ETF (159806), Photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864), Growth Enterprise Board New Energy ETF (159387), and Carbon Neutrality 50 ETF (159861) [2]