有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | | | 昨日 LME 休市；昨晚 SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.23%至 78450 元/吨。宏观方面，美联储明 | | | | | 年票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席表示，美国经济面临的最大风险是新政策的不确定 | | | | | 性，不确定到 9 月份时有足够证据进行降息。欧央行表示欧元可能成为美元的替代， | | | | | 近期全球动荡为欧元推进全球化创造契机。库存方面，SMM 周一统计全国主流地区 铜库存环比上周五微降 0.02 万吨至 13.97 万吨，结束连续两周周一累库重新下降。需 | | | | 铜 | 求方面，高铜价高升水，下游采购相对谨慎，终端需求订单可能逐步放缓。虽然特朗 | | | | | 普态度反复摇摆，但美政府关税立场缓和下，宏观方面整体朝着回暖的方向发展。基 | | | | | 本面方面，COMEX 市场继续"吸"铜，LME 库存快速下降，或引起非美国家铜紧 | | | | | 张的情形，从我国 4 月精通、 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper price may experience a short - term upward movement due to supply tightness and the relative strength of US copper, but there are risks of economic slowdown in the medium term [1]. - The aluminum price is supported by the continuous decline of inventories and is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level, with the possibility of the inter - month spread further widening [3]. - For lead, if the reduction in recycled production leads to a greater decline in scrap prices, it may weaken the cost support and deepen the downward space for lead prices [4]. - Zinc prices still face a certain downward risk in the medium term as the social inventory of zinc ingots accumulates [6]. - The tin price may decline as the supply is expected to loosen and the demand is weak [7][8]. - Nickel has a slightly improved short - term fundamental situation but remains bearish in the long run, and it is recommended to short at high prices [9]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures price may run weakly [11]. - For alumina, it is recommended to lightly short at high prices as the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change [13]. - The stainless steel market is affected by cost support and supply - demand game, and it is difficult to show a trend in the short term [15]. Summary by Metal Copper - Last week, the LME copper rose 1.84% to $9614/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78390 yuan/ton [1]. - The total inventory of the three major exchanges decreased by 20,000 tons, and the Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 11,000 tons [1]. - The spot import loss of copper expanded, and the Yangshan copper premium continued to decline [1]. - The SHFE copper main contract is expected to run in the range of 77,200 - 79,500 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 3M in the range of $9450 - 9750/ton [1]. Aluminum - Last week, the LME aluminum fell 0.74% to $2466/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,175 yuan/ton [3]. - The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 24,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 10,000 tons [3]. - The SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to run in the range of 20,000 - 20,400 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2420 - 2520/ton [3]. Lead - Last week, the SHFE lead index rose 1.07% to 16,859 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S rose to $1984.5/ton [4]. - The domestic social inventory of lead increased, and the LME lead inventory was 295,800 tons [4]. Zinc - Last week, the SHFE zinc index fell 0.20% to 22,213 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose to $2695/ton [6]. - In April, China's exports of unforged zinc alloy reached 1280.23 tons, with a significant increase [6]. - The zinc concentrate port inventory continued to rise, and the zinc price has a downward risk in the medium term [6]. Tin - Last week, the tin market maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price continued to oscillate at a high level [7]. - The supply of tin ore is gradually recovering but slowly, and the demand has not increased significantly [7][8]. - The SHFE tin main contract is expected to run in the range of 260,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin in the range of $34,000 - 39,000/ton [8]. Nickel - Last week, the nickel price maintained a weak oscillation [9]. - The supply of refined nickel is at a historical high, and the demand from the stainless - steel market is weak [9]. - It is recommended to short at high prices, with the SHFE nickel main contract expected to run in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and the LME nickel 3M in the range of $14,500 - 16,500/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - On Friday, the MMLC of lithium carbonate decreased, and the futures price also declined [11]. - The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures price may run weakly [11]. - The reference operating range of the GZCE lithium carbonate 2507 contract is 60,200 - 61,600 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - On May 23, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.31% to 3165 yuan/ton [13]. - The spot prices in some regions increased, and the futures inventory decreased [13]. - It is recommended to lightly short at high prices, with the domestic main contract AO2509 expected to run in the range of 2850 - 3400 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,875 yuan/ton [15]. - The spot prices in some markets remained stable, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease [15]. - The market is affected by cost support and supply - demand game, and it is difficult to show a trend in the short term [15].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The main copper futures price oscillated strongly above 78,000 yuan today, with a slight increase in open interest. The sharp rebound of precious metals may boost copper prices. Recently, the copper price has been oscillating around 78,000 yuan, and the monthly spread has continued to decline. After the peak season, the short - term social inventory of electrolytic copper has started to accumulate, pressuring the copper price. However, the domestic inventory is still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and the consumption expectation is good under domestic macro - stimulus. It is expected that the copper price will oscillate in the short term [5]. - **Aluminum**: The main aluminum futures price oscillated narrowly below 20,200 yuan today. At the industrial level, recent disturbances in the alumina ore end have led to an upward movement of the futures price, providing some support for the aluminum price. The destocking of aluminum ingot social inventory is normal and at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a strong operation, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price rebounded after hitting the bottom last night, and the main futures price oscillated around 123,000 yuan today. Since last week, the center of the nickel price has continued to move down, and the amplitude has narrowed. Currently, the nickel industry is neutral in the short term and bearish in the long term. It is expected that the futures price will maintain an oscillating operation. Technically, attention should be paid to the technical support at 123,000 yuan, but there is a lack of momentum for a rebound [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: According to Ivanhoe Mines, the underground mining operation of the Kakula mine in the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was suspended on May 18, 2025, due to multiple mine tremors in the eastern area of the Kakula mine last week [9]. - **Aluminum**: Data from the International Aluminium Institute shows that the global primary aluminum production in April 2025 was 6.033 million tons, compared with 5.901 million tons in the same period last year and a revised value of 6.237 million tons in the previous month. The estimated primary aluminum production in China in April was 3.621 million tons, with a revised value of 3.742 million tons in the previous month [9]. - **Nickel**: On May 21, for the refined nickel in the Shanghai market, the mainstream reference contract was the SHFE nickel 2506 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2,150 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,570 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was + 350 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,770 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was + 2,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 126,020 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,520 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: There are charts of aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: The charts involve nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [34][36][38].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | 种 | 隔夜 LME 铜先抑后扬，上涨 0.4%至 9554.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.36%至 | | | 78140 元/吨；国内现货进口亏损幅度加大。宏观方面，欧美关税问题进行谈判，日本 | | | 考虑接受美国调降关税，而非完全豁免。国内方面，中国 4 月经济数据显示，消费略 | | | 超预期，固定资产投资整体增速较低，房地产出现回踩特征。库存方面，LME 铜库存 | | | 下降 3575 吨至 170750 吨；comex 铜库存增加 1127 吨至 155694 吨；SHFE 铜仓单下降 | | 铜 | 16175 吨至 45738。需求方面，随着铜价走高，旺季转淡季预期下，下游采购相对谨 | | | 慎，终端需求订单可能逐步放缓。昨晚黄金和原油大幅回升，带动市场情绪，铜价震 | | | 荡走高。另外，市场关注国内某仓位大量持有铜多头情况，市场或担心挤仓风险，且 | | | 铜结构也不利于空头布局，从 SHFE 仓单来看依然维系大量流出情形，表明部分投 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level shock, aluminum price rebound sustainability remains to be seen, nickel is expected to show a weak shock, and tin price volatility is expected to increase [1][2][5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Base Metals Copper - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai copper rose 0.08% to 78,090 yuan/ton. The easing of global trade tensions makes the copper price return to the fundamental logic. The TC of copper concentrates continues to decline, and the subsequent output of smelters may decline. The consumption is stable but the high monthly spread restricts it. Technically, it runs between 74,500 - 80,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 78,500 yuan [1] Aluminum - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 1.27% to 20,005 yuan/ton. Bauxite supply increases and prices decline. Alumina production capacity decreases, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity increases. The downstream开工 rate has a weakening expectation. The aluminum price rebounds, but the sustainability needs to be observed [2] Nickel - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai nickel fell 1.52% to 123,860 yuan/ton. The inflation cools down, and the domestic manufacturing PMI declines. The nickel ore price is firm, the refined nickel is in surplus, the nickel - iron has support but is also in surplus, and the stainless - steel is in the off - season. The cost of nickel sulfate rises, but the demand is weak. It is expected to run weakly [3][5] Tin - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai tin rose 0.37% to 262,070 yuan/ton. The domestic refined tin output may decrease, and the import of tin concentrates decreases. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The tin ore supply is tight, and the mine has a strong resumption expectation. The price volatility is expected to increase, and the operation range is 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton [6] Spot Transaction Summary Copper - The domestic spot copper price falls. After the copper price rises, the downstream's willingness to receive goods decreases, and the actual transaction activity is limited [7] Aluminum - The spot aluminum price rises. The holders' willingness to sell is slow at first, but the high price stimulates some profit - taking. The downstream only makes purchases at low prices, and the overall transaction is dull [8] Alumina - The spot price of alumina rises slightly. The transaction in the spot market becomes dull, and the downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises make rigid purchases [9] Zinc - The spot zinc price falls. The activity in the spot trading market decreases, and the downstream users adopt a price - pressing and quantity - limiting strategy [10] Lead - The spot lead price remains unchanged. The downstream maintains rigid purchases and sales [11] Nickel - The spot nickel price falls. The merchants make rigid purchases at low prices, and the inquiry enthusiasm increases [12] Tin - The spot tin price falls. The merchants make rigid purchases, and the overall transaction activity is stable [13] Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - For SHFE, copper, lead, and nickel futures warehouse receipts increase, while aluminum, zinc, and tin futures warehouse receipts decrease. For LME, copper, zinc, and aluminum inventories decrease, while lead, nickel inventories increase, and tin inventory remains unchanged [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile after the holiday, and interval trading is recommended due to supply - demand tensions and potential demand - side impacts [2]. - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate and weaken as the current upward trend is hard to sustain with the impact of US tariffs on demand gradually emerging [4]. - Nickel prices are expected to show a weak and volatile trend under the condition of supply surplus [6]. - Tin prices are expected to have increased fluctuations, and interval trading is recommended, with attention paid to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals - **Copper**: As of May 8, the Shanghai copper main 06 contract fell 0.90% to 77,330 yuan/ton. The US copper market was pressured, and the domestic copper price fluctuated significantly during the holiday. The supply - demand fundamentals are still tight, but the upward space of copper prices is limited. After the holiday, Shanghai copper may remain volatile [2]. - **Aluminum**: As of May 8, the Shanghai aluminum main 06 contract fell 0.69% to 19,510 yuan/ton. The supply of bauxite is improving, and the alumina market is in a state of mixed production. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased. The downstream processing enterprise's operating rate decreased, and the inventory is being depleted. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate and weaken [4]. - **Nickel**: As of May 8, the Shanghai nickel main 06 contract fell 0.36% to 123,630 yuan/ton. The inflation in the US has cooled, and the domestic manufacturing PMI has declined. The nickel ore price is firm, the refined nickel is in surplus, the nickel - iron is also in surplus, and the stainless - steel production is in the off - season. Nickel prices are expected to be weak and volatile [5][6]. - **Tin**: As of May 8, the Shanghai tin main 06 contract fell 0.16% to 261,480 yuan/ton. The domestic refined tin production may decrease, and the semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the production is expected to resume. The price is expected to fluctuate greatly, and interval trading is recommended [7]. Spot Transaction Summary - **Copper**: Domestic spot copper prices showed mixed trends. The spot premium structure was firm, but the downstream consumption was cautious, and the trading activity decreased [8]. - **Aluminum**: The spot transaction price increased. The trading in the spot market was active, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm increased [9]. - **Zinc**: The spot price increased. The trading activity in the spot market improved, and the high - premium pattern supported the price [11][12]. - **Lead**: The spot price increased. The downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand, and the market activity needed to be further improved [13][14]. - **Nickel**: The spot price decreased. Some merchants were cautious, and the market activity needed to be improved [15][16]. - **Tin**: The spot price increased. The spot market remained cautious, and the traders had difficulty in selling [17]. Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - **Copper**: The copper futures warehouse receipt decreased by 2,001 tons to 19,540 tons, and the copper inventory increased by 300 tons to 194,275 tons [19]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum futures warehouse receipt decreased by 2,752 tons to 66,106 tons, and the aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 405,575 tons [19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc futures warehouse receipt remained unchanged at 2,053 tons, and the zinc inventory decreased by 750 tons to 170,650 tons [19]. - **Lead**: The lead futures warehouse receipt decreased by 50 tons to 39,931 tons, and the lead inventory decreased by 1,550 tons to 255,150 tons [19]. - **Nickel**: The nickel futures warehouse receipt decreased by 145 tons to 23,564 tons, and the nickel inventory decreased by 1,470 tons to 198,312 tons [19]. - **Tin**: The tin futures warehouse receipt decreased by 34 tons to 8,334 tons, and the tin inventory remained unchanged at 2,755 tons [19].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 4 月 30 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 隔夜 LME 铜上涨 0.44%至 9446.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.19%至 77740 元/吨；国 | | | 内现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国 3 月 JOLTS 职位空缺 719.2 万人，大幅低于预期 | | | 750 万人和前值 756.8 万人；美国 4 月谘商会消费者信心指数降至 86，创 2020 年 5 月份 | | | 以来新低。美国总统特朗普预计将采取措施减轻其汽车关税政策带来的冲击。这也表明 | | | 虽然美政府态度仍会反复，但在发债压力下总体相比 4 月份将缓和。库存方面来看， | | | LME 库存下降 300 吨至 20.25 万吨；Comex 库存增加 2372.31 吨至 12.49 万吨；SHFE | | | 铜仓单下降 2842 吨至 34042 吨；BC 铜仓单下降 100 吨至 9863 吨。需求方面，总体来 | | | 看订单较为平稳。外围宏观情绪缓和，国内旺季成色较足，快速去库下看空情绪偏弱， | ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 4 月 29 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | | | | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜上涨 0.49%至 9405.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.34%至 77630 元/吨；国 内现货进口亏损。宏观方面，美国 4 月达拉斯联储商业活动指数-35.8，大幅低于预期 | | | | | | | | 14.1 和前值-16.3，美政府关税引起的动荡在当地制造业开始显现。美国财政部目前预 计，4 月至 6 月期间的净借款将达到 5140 亿美元，高于今年 2 月时预测的 1230 亿美 | | | | | | | | 元，但剔除债务上限影响后不增反降，这或表明美国融资需求实际上正在下降。库存方 | | | | | | | 铜 | 万吨；Comex 库存增加 2873.99 吨至 12.26 万 | | | 面来看，LME 库存下降 650 吨至 20.28 | | | | | | 吨；SMM 全国主流地区铜库存环比上周五下降 2.66 万吨至 15.51 万吨 ...