Group 1 - The recent weakness of the US dollar is seen as a sign of cross-border investor flows [1] - These capital movements may be related to the outlook of slowing US economic growth, but could also align with the recovery of US risk assets [1] - US risk assets have risen as dollar investors shift from government bonds back to the stock market [1] Group 2 - If non-dollar investors take on greater risks while moving away from the US market, there will be no capital inflow back into dollar assets [1] - This scenario suggests that while the US stock market may rise, the dollar remains weak [1] - Neuberger Berman forecasts a potential further decline of 3%-5% for the dollar against the euro and yen this year, with increased volatility expected [1]

金十数据5月13日讯，汇丰外汇分析师说，利率差异和其他传统因素暗示美元应该走强。美元最近的疲 软表明，其他因素正在主导美元的走势，市场对美元的不信任持续存在。美国的经济活动、政治和结构 性因素意味着美元应该处于疲软状态，尽管美元不会持续多年下跌。我们不认同美元遭遇结构性下跌， 但我们了解其中的风险，以及可能导致这种下跌的因素。人们对美元的信任需要时间才能恢复。 美元疲软表明市场对美元的不信任持续存在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant depreciation of the US dollar and its impact on Asian currencies, highlighting a shift in international capital flows and market dynamics [2][3][12]. Currency Movements - The US dollar index fell by 0.22%, reaching 99.82, with a minimum drop to around 99.60, marking a maximum decline of over 0.43% during the trading session [1][2]. - The offshore RMB broke the 7.20 mark against the US dollar, hitting a low of 7.19, the first time since November of the previous year, with a daily drop exceeding 200 basis points [5][6]. - The US dollar to New Taiwan dollar experienced a maximum drop of over 4%, the largest since 1988, with the exchange rate falling below 30 for the first time since February 2023, reflecting a year-to-date decline of over 9% [6][7]. Market Reactions - The weakening of the US dollar has led to increased demand for Asian currencies, with significant movements observed in the Malaysian ringgit and South Korean won, both showing declines exceeding 1% against the dollar [7]. - The Hong Kong dollar triggered the strong-side convertibility guarantee for the first time since October 2020, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervening to stabilize the currency by buying US dollars and selling HKD [8][9]. Economic Implications - Analysts suggest that the erratic tariff policies of the US government have heightened concerns about a potential recession in the US economy, leading to a reduced willingness among international investors to hold US assets [7][12]. - The article notes that the recent trends in currency movements may indicate a temporary easing of trade tensions, which could support a technical recovery of the US dollar index, although the long-term outlook for the US economy remains bleak [13][14].

金十数据5月2日讯，由于美元和美国国债收益率下滑，黄金期货在相对清淡的交易中上涨。但在周四的 大幅抛售后，本周整体下跌。SP Angel的分析师在一份报告中说，ETF资金外流表明，在今年迄今金价 上涨21%之后，交易员和投资者已经获利了结。SP Angel表示，贸易紧张关系降温正在降低黄金的吸引 力，同时特朗普宣布他不打算解雇鲍威尔。现在的焦点转向将于周五的美国就业数据。如果数据弱于预 期，就会提振人们对美联储降息的乐观情绪，这对无息黄金是一个利好。 美元疲软导致金价上涨，非农弱于预期将利好黄金 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Wilson believes that a weak dollar will support U.S. corporate earnings, helping U.S. stocks outperform other global markets, with the S&P 500 index expected to remain in the range of 5000-5500 points [1] - Deutsche Bank reports that foreign investors are still reluctant to buy U.S. assets, with data showing a "sudden stop" in overseas purchases of U.S. stocks and bonds over the past two months [1] - Bank of America highlights that market focus is on potential hints from the Bank of Japan regarding interest rate hikes in June or July, with current market expectations for the Bank of Japan's final rate slightly above 0.75% [1] Group 2 - Barclays recommends investors to re-establish long positions in five-year U.S. Treasury bonds in preparation for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, citing increased uncertainty following tariff announcements [2] - Societe Generale's energy strategist indicates that uncertainty surrounding OPEC+ production plans is creating significant downside risks for oil prices, with Brent crude oil prices expected to reach $60 per barrel in Q2 and $70 in Q3 [3] - ING's report states that President Trump's recent criticisms of the Federal Reserve's policies have not been beneficial for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, with 10-year Treasury yields recently stabilizing around 4.256% [4] Group 3 - Mitsubishi UFJ suggests that even if the Bank of Japan takes a cautious stance on interest rate hikes, the yen may still appreciate due to expected downward revisions in economic growth and core inflation forecasts [5] - CITIC Securities anticipates that 2025 will be a turning point for China's steel industry, with ongoing capacity reductions and industry reforms expected to benefit profit distribution within the sector [6] - Huatai Securities sees investment opportunities in the commercial real estate sector in 2025, driven by policy catalysts and the performance of leading companies [7] Group 4 - Zhongtai Securities emphasizes the dividend attributes of bank stocks under the "equal tariffs" backdrop, recommending a focus on large banks and quality city commercial banks [8] - Guotai Junan suggests prioritizing brokerage firms with significant comprehensive advantages and stronger cross-border asset allocation capabilities, as the fixed income self-operation business undergoes transformation [9]

每经记者 蔡鼎 每经编辑 高涵 ④【AMD8亿美元减值损失拖累业绩预期，汇丰下调目标价至70美元】尽管AMD有望达成一季度财务 目标，但美国人工智能芯片出口管制引发的8亿美元减值损失，正持续冲击其未来业绩展望。汇丰银行 最新研报将AMD目标价从90美元大幅下调至70美元，并重申"减持"评级。 ⑤【大摩：美元疲软将支撑美股跑赢全球其他市场】摩根士丹利分析师Michael Wilson表示，美元走软 将支撑美国企业盈利，有助于美国股市跑赢全球其他市场。他指出，企业盈利成长波动性较小以及美国 企业被认为质量更高是支持这一观点的其他理由。 ⑥【特斯拉据称调整Semi量产计划，预计年底开始生产】据外媒，特斯拉Semi电动半挂卡车量产计划 有所调整，预计今年底开始生产，明年提速。报道称，其位于内华达州的新工厂已建成，正在部署生产 线。 ⑦【汇丰一季度税前利润下降25%，宣布30亿美元股票回购】汇丰控股周二公布，今年第一季度税前利 润下降25%至95亿美元，原因是计入了与加拿大和阿根廷的业务处置相关的一次性费用。该行还宣布了 一项30亿美元的股票回购计划。 ⑨【巴克莱下调2025年布油预测，因贸易紧张局势和OPEC+调整生 ...

摩根士丹利策略师Wilson：美元疲软将支撑美股跑赢全球其他市场。 ...

期货热点追踪 美元疲软利好出口却难敌天气与政策扰动，美豆价格能否延续当前上行态势？ 相关链接 ...