Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a strong surge on November 19, reaching a peak of $4,134 before retreating, influenced by increasing divisions regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - As of the close, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.29% to $4,078.30 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) increased by 1.78%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) saw a rise of 4.13% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's October policy meeting revealed significant divisions among decision-makers regarding the recent interest rate cut [1] - Despite concerns that lowering rates could hinder efforts to control inflation, which has remained above the 2% target for the past four and a half years, the Fed ultimately decided to cut rates [1] - Following the meeting, there has been a notable shift among Fed officials expressing worries about inflation and opposing further rate cuts in December, with current market expectations for a rate cut at only about 30% [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts from CITIC Futures noted that there may be cautious sentiment in the market ahead of important earnings reports from U.S. stocks [1] - The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes and non-farm payroll data is anticipated to influence market expectations, particularly in light of a cooling labor market [1] - The long-term bullish trend for precious metals is expected to be maintained [1]

近期，市场对美联储降息的预期出现显著逆转。据CME"美联储观察"最新数据显示，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已跌破 50%，降至44.4%，而维持当前利率不变的概率则升至55.6%。展望至明年1月，市场预计累计降息25个基点的概率为48.6%，维 持利率不变的概率为34.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率仅为16.7%。这一变化显示，交易员正在重新评估美联储的货币政策路 径。 关联市场：金价短期承压于强势美元与高利率预期 美联储降息预期的推迟，对国际金价形成了明显的短期压力。较高的利率环境通常将提振美元并增加持有黄金等非生息资产的 机会成本，令金价承压。近期，国际金价在美元走强的利率预期下震荡偏弱。市场分析认为，除非后续经济数据显著恶化，再 次点燃市场的避险与降息预期，否则金价短期内恐难摆脱当前的高利率压制格局。 百利好（Plotio）是一家专注于为全球投资者提供在线交易服务的品牌。百利好注册于巴哈马，受巴哈马证券委员会（SCB）监 管（编号：SIA-F212），持有香港黄金交易所AA牌照 ，是一家正规的交易平台。 有分析指出，这些言论集中反映了美联储内部对美国通胀进展可能放缓甚至停滞的担忧，这为年底再次降息的 ...

美联储降息前景突生变数。 据CME"美联储观察"，截至北京时间11月16日14:00，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已跌破50%，仅 有44.4%。有分析指出，美联储内部分歧加剧给12月的议息会议增添了巨大的不确定性。 美国政府"停摆"结束后，大量经济数据将密集发布，将为市场与美联储评估美国经济状况提供关键依 据。据美国商务部和劳工部已公布的详细时间表，数据发布将从下周四开始陆续展开。届时，市场将重 新定价美联储未来的降息路径。据摩根士丹利预测，美联储在12月9—10日议息会议前能够获取美国9月 就业、通胀、零售销售及三季度GDP初值等完整数据，关键在于10月和11月就业报告能否及时发布。 美联储降息预期骤降 北京时间11月16日，据CME"美联储观察"，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率跌破50%，仅有44.4%，维 持利率不变的概率升至55.6%；美联储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为48.6%，维持利率不变的概 率为34.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为16.7%。 有分析指出，多位美联储官员近日加大了对美国通胀进展可能放缓甚至停滞的警告力度，使得12月再次 降息的前景蒙上阴影。 美东时间11月14 ...

美联储降息前景突生变数。 据CME"美联储观察"，截至北京时间11月16日14:00，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已跌破50%，仅有44.4%。有分析指出，美联储内部分歧加剧给12月的议息会 议增添了巨大的不确定性。 博斯蒂克在西雅图的一次活动中表示："我已经能够支持前两次降息，我们会看到下一次降息会发生什么……我希望这些信息能够指导我认为适当的政策应该是什 么。" 同一天，美国达拉斯联储主席洛根明确表示，她将在12月反对降息。她在10月也反对过降息，原因是她担心通胀水平过高、呈上升趋势，而且回到美联储2%的目标 所需时间太长。 美国堪萨斯城联储主席施密德周五（11月14日）也表示："我认为进一步的降息对缓解劳动力市场的任何压力作用不大。这些压力更可能来自技术和移民政策的结构 性变化。但降息可能对通胀产生更持久的影响，因为市场会越来越怀疑我们对2%目标的承诺。" 前美联储官员指出，美联储当前处在一个艰难的处境。这确实让美联储主席鲍威尔的任务更困难。即便在这种情况下做出非常合理、良好的政策，也有可能导致糟 糕的结果，因为形势实在太复杂。 美国政府"停摆"结束后，大量经济数据将密集发布，将为市场与美联储评估美 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has resulted in the potential permanent loss of the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment data reports, which may hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions [2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Logan stated that she does not support another rate cut in December unless there is clear evidence of a faster decline in U.S. inflation levels [2] - Logan emphasized that the current inflation levels in the U.S. are still on an upward trend, and returning to the 2% target will take time [2] - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Goolsbee expressed caution regarding further rate cuts due to the lack of economic data caused by the government shutdown [2] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook indicated uncertainty about a potential rate cut in December, citing dual risks from inflation and the labor market outlook [2]

Primary Market - A total of 23 offshore bonds were issued by Chinese entities this week, including 7 RMB bonds, 11 USD bonds, 3 HKD bonds, and 2 EUR bonds, with issuance scales of 10.796 billion RMB, 1.825 billion USD, 3.2 billion HKD, and 700 million EUR respectively [1] - The largest single issuance in the offshore RMB bond market was 4.3 billion RMB by China Resources Land Limited, while the highest coupon rate for RMB bonds was 6.6% issued by Shouguang City Urban Construction Investment and Development Co., Ltd [1] - In the USD bond market, the largest single issuance was 500 million USD by Agricultural Bank of China International Holdings Limited, with the highest coupon rate at 5.2% issued by the Asian Development Bank [1] Secondary Market Overview - The yield on Chinese USD bonds showed mixed results this week, with the Markit iBoxx Chinese USD Bond Composite Index remaining flat at 251.02, while the investment-grade USD bond index increased by 0.02% to 243.69 [2] - The high-yield USD bond index decreased by 0.08% to 244.22, with the real estate USD bond index dropping by 0.34% to 183.66, while the city investment USD bond index rose by 0.18% to 153.23 [2] Benchmark Spread - As of November 14, the spread between the 10-year benchmark government bonds of China and the U.S. widened to 231.67 basis points, an increase of 2.87 basis points from the previous week [3] Credit Rating Changes - Moody's placed the long-term issuer rating of Yuanta Financial Holding Co., Ltd. at "A2" under review for downgrade on November 12 [6] - China Chengxin International downgraded the issuer and "Huangtu Convertible Bond" credit rating of Aerospace Hongtu Information Technology Co., Ltd. from BB+ to BBB, maintaining a negative outlook [6] Defaults and Extensions - Baolong Industrial announced on November 12 that it failed to pay the principal of 721 million RMB and interest of 41.39 million RMB on its "H19 Baolong A and H19 Baolong B" bonds due to underperformance of underlying assets [7] - R&F Properties reported that 66.6% of creditors have agreed to a restructuring plan for its USD bonds as of November 14, with the deadline for creditor participation extended to November 28 [13] - The hearing for the liquidation application of Baolong Properties' subsidiary has been postponed to December 15 [14] Domestic News - In September, the interbank market issued 986 debt financing instruments totaling 841.8 billion RMB, with a cumulative issuance of panda bonds reaching 824.3 billion RMB by the end of September [9] - The Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China emphasized the need to actively develop direct financing through equity and bonds to enhance market infrastructure and investor protection [10] Overseas News - Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook indicated that U.S. inflation is expected to remain above the 2% target for the next 2 to 3 years, stressing the need for restrictive monetary policy to maintain credibility [12] Offshore Debt Alerts - Evergrande Auto's bankruptcy and liquidation petition for its Tianjin subsidiary has been accepted by the court, with the registered capital of the subsidiary being 4.1 billion RMB [16]

14日，美联储下属的达拉斯联邦储备银行行长洛根表示，除非看到美国通胀水平更快回落的明确证据，否则她不支持美联储在12月再次降息。洛根指出，美 国目前的通胀水平仍呈上行趋势，回到2%的目标需要时间。 此前，芝加哥联邦储备银行行长古尔斯比表示，美政府"停摆"导致经济数据缺失，这让他对进一步降息更加持谨慎态度。美联储理事莉萨·库克也表示，鉴 于通胀和劳动力市场前景的双重风险，目前并不能确定12月会再度降息。（总台记者 张颖哲） 美国白宫新闻秘书日前表示，由于此前政府"停摆"，今年10月份美国消费者价格指数（CPI）和就业数据统计报告"可能永远不会"发布。这将导致美国联邦 储备委员会（美联储）在信息不完整的情况下被迫进行重要决策。 ...

近期，美国通胀数据再次成为全球金融市场关注的焦点。花旗银行（Citigroup）在最新报告中指出，由于10月受政府停摆影响，统计部门的数据采集工作受 阻，导致10月CPI（消费者物价指数）数据可能存在一定偏差。这意味着市场依据该数据作出的政策预期，或需谨慎看待。 与此同时，花旗经济学家还预测，美国劳动力市场正在持续走弱，这可能强化市场对美联储在2024年末至2025年初进一步降息的预期。本文将结合宏观数据 与政策趋势，从通胀、就业、货币政策三个角度，深入解析这一事件对全球经济与跨境企业的潜在影响。 一、10月CPI数据或"失真"：通胀放缓信号仍需验证 根据花旗的报告，美国10月CPI数据的可靠性可能低于往期。主要原因在于，政府停摆期间，美国劳工统计局（BLS）部分工作人员无法按计划开展实地价 格采样与问卷调查。虽然统计机构后续通过"回溯提问"和"模型估算"补充数据，但样本完整性与时间准确性均受影响。 这意味着—— 即使CPI显示"通胀下降"，也未必反映真实物价走势。 美联储的货币政策变化不仅影响美国本土，也将对全球资本流动与汇率政策产生连锁反应。 一旦美联储降息，短期内可能带来以下三点影响： 美元可能出现阶段 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials have expressed caution regarding the rising expectations for interest rate cuts, indicating that the current interest rate levels are closer to neutral rather than overly tight, suggesting limited room for significant rate cuts in the near future [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that after two rate cuts this year, the policy rate is now closer to neutral, with inflation around 3% still above the 2% target, necessitating continued efforts to combat high inflation while supporting the labor market [4]. - Other Fed officials echoed similar sentiments, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack emphasizing the need to maintain restrictive rates to apply downward pressure on inflation, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noting that approximately 3% inflation remains high [4]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly mentioned that after two rate cuts this year, the balance between the goals of full employment and price stability has returned to a more balanced state, but service sector inflation has not shown sustained decline, warranting a more restrained market expectation for further easing [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following the cautious remarks from Fed officials, futures market pricing adjusted, with traders' bets on a December rate cut dropping from over 60% to around 50%, indicating a cooling confidence in the prospect of a rate cut [2]. - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with ADP reporting a private sector job increase of only 42,000 in October, while Challenger reported a significant rise in announced layoffs to 153,000, the highest for October since 2003 [6]. - Consumer sentiment is also weakening, with the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index falling to 50.3, the lowest since 2022, reflecting deteriorating expectations regarding job and income prospects [6]. Group 3: Challenges Faced by the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is navigating a complex situation with incomplete data due to prolonged government shutdowns, relying more on private and survey data to assess economic conditions [7][8]. - Musalem acknowledged the importance of restoring credible and sustainably updated official data, but noted that the Fed can still form reasonable judgments about economic conditions through financial market rates and other indicators [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Underperform the Market" [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The US service sector activity rebounded significantly in October, with inflation pressure rising. The ISM Services PMI reached 52.4, a new eight - month high, and the price index soared to 70, a three - year high. The employment index is still in the contraction range, but the decline rate has slowed [1] - There is a growing divergence among Fed voting members on the future path of interest rate cuts. There are sharp differences between "doves" and "hawks", and the probability of a 25bp rate cut in December is 67% [2] - The US government is about to end the shutdown, and the liquidity pressure is expected to ease. Once the government restarts, the frozen fiscal expenditure will be released, and nearly $1 trillion in the TGA account will flow back into the market [3] - The current market features economic resilience, inflation pressure, and policy uncertainty. It is recommended to use a short - to - medium - duration strategy to capture returns, while guarding against long - term interest rate risks and maintaining portfolio flexibility. The investment strategy for US Treasuries is still mainly defensive and secondarily aggressive [4] Summary by Directory US Treasury Benchmark Interest Rate - Figures include 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields, the Treasury yield curve, bid - to - cover ratios for various maturities of Treasuries, issuance winning bid rates for 2 - 30 - year Treasuries, monthly Treasury issuance, and the implied interest rate cut expectations in the federal funds futures market [12][16][18] US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - Figures cover US inflation year - on - year trends, the US federal government's annual cumulative fiscal deficit (fiscal year), the US economic surprise index, ISM PMI, consumer confidence index, financial conditions index, housing rent growth rate, number of unemployment benefit claimants, hourly wage year - on - year growth rate, non - farm payroll data, new housing approvals, starts, and sales year - on - year growth rates in the real estate market, personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth rate, break - even inflation expectations, and new ADP employment [24][26][28] Exchange Rates - Figures show the one - year trend of non - US currencies, the two - week changes in non - US currencies, the Sino - US sovereign bond yield spread, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield, the US dollar index and the RMB index, and the one - year locked - in exchange cost changes of the US dollar against the RMB [50][55][57] Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - Figures display the return trends of Chinese - issued US dollar bonds since 2023 (by rating and industry), the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - issued US dollar bonds, and the two - week returns (by rating and industry) [64][66][69] Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 12 rating actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers, including 5 rating withdrawals, 3 initial ratings, 2 rating downgrades, and 2 rating upgrades [72]