美国通胀：延续温和 宏 观 快 报 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2025 年 12 月美国通胀数据点评 本报告导读： 12 月美国通胀并未出现市场此前所担忧的补偿性反弹，核心 CPI 增速反而不及预期。 结构上来看核心商品通胀温和，核心服务通胀有所回升。短期内美国通胀压力或仍 偏温和，不会对市场情绪以及美联储货币政策决定带来过多扰动。 投资要点： 宏 观 研 究 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.14 2026-01-14 [Table_Summary] 美国 12 月通胀：反弹幅度不及预期。数据公布前，市场普遍认为由 于政府关门导致 11 月通胀数据被低估，12 月通胀数据会出现补偿 性反弹。但 12 月美国 CPI 同比增速维持 2.7%，与 11 月持平；环比 增速维持 0.3%，与 9 月持平，并未出现明显回升。此外，核心 CPI 增速反而低于预期。其中核心 CPI 同比 2.6%（市场预期 2.7%，前值 2.6%），核心 CPI 环比 0.2%（市场预期 0.3%）。总体来看，12 月通胀 数据显示美国当前通胀压力仍较温和。 结构：商品偏弱 ...

Inflation Data Summary - December core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%[1] - December CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with expectations, while year-on-year CPI remained at 2.7%[1] - Core CPI year-on-year held steady at 2.6%, meeting market expectations[1] Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations remained unchanged at 52 basis points[1] - 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields decreased by 2 basis points to 3.45% and 4.17%, respectively[1] - The U.S. dollar index remained stable around 99, while S&P 500 futures showed minimal fluctuations[1] Sector Analysis - Clothing, furniture, and entertainment goods showed a rebound in December, with month-on-month increases of 0.95pp, 0.42pp, and 0.37pp, respectively[2] - New and used car prices significantly slowed, with December month-on-month growth at 0.01% and -1.11%, down from 0.21% and 0.29% in November[2] - Core services inflation rose by 0.21pp to 0.29%, with housing showing a notable rebound[2] Future Outlook - The forecast for U.S. CPI growth in 2026 has been revised downwards, with core CPI expected to be 3.0%, a reduction of 0.3pp[2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts from January to May, with potential cuts in the second half of the year[2] - Risks include unexpected impacts from tariffs and potential price increases by businesses in early 2026[3]

据新华财经消息，1月13日晚，美国劳工部公布了2025年12月份美国CPI（消费者物价指数）数据。具 体看，美国2025年12月份CPI同比涨幅为2.7%，环比涨幅为0.3%，同环比涨幅均与市场预期保持一致。 剔除波动较大食品和能源价格后的核心CPI同比涨幅为2.6%，环比涨幅为0.2%。 "美国2025年12月份总体通胀符合预期、核心通胀略低于预期。"东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪在 接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，此前，市场普遍认为数据收集窗口推迟、统计范围不完整等因素， 会令美国2025年11月份通胀数据被低估，因此美国2025年12月份通胀可能会出现反弹。在这一背景下， 美国2025年12月份CPI、核心CPI同环比增速总体均基本持平，打消了市场对于美国2025年11月份通胀 数据失真的疑虑，进一步确认了美国通胀缓步下行的大趋势。 本报记者 韩昱 从美联储货币政策角度看，1月14日，芝商所FedWatch（美联储观察）工具数据显示，市场押注美联储 1月份维持利率不变的概率高达97.2%，降息25个基点的概率仅为2.8%。 "在2025年三次降息后，当前美联储政策利率已趋近中性利率水平区间。与此同时， ...

历史数据数据看，美国10月核心CPI年率缺失，11月份为2.6%，显著低于9月份的3%，通胀率有回归至 2%温和通胀标准的可能。纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯表示："通胀方面的上行风险则有所降 低"，依据是10月份和11月份的CPI数据下降。如果12月份CPI数据如预期的2.7%，意味着通胀下降是市 场行为，而非政府停摆导致。 美联储在2025年降息3次，每次25基点。2026年降息次数以及首次降息月份，依赖于通胀数据的表现。 如果12月份CPI数据保持稳定，1月份美联储再次降息的概率将显著下降。根据CME美联储观察的模 型，1月降息25个基点的概率为5.0%，维持利率不变的概率为95.0%。据此可知，交易人士也认为，美 国的经济数据不会在利率决议前出现超预期变化。 ▲ATFX图 专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月14日，今日21：30，美国劳工统计局将公布12月CPI数据，该数据是美联储研判美国通胀走向的核 心依据。10月份和11月份的CPI数据均受到美国政府停摆的影响，12月份是首个不受政府停摆影响的月 份，更能揭示美国真实的物价表现。 12月名义CPI年率的前值为2.7%，预期值2.7%，预期持平。1 ...

Overview - In December 2025, the overall CPI in the U.S. was 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, meeting expectations, while the core CPI was slightly weaker at 2.6% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 2.7% and 0.3% respectively[1][5]. - The market's reaction to the CPI data was muted, with a slight increase in "rate cut trades" following the announcement, but overall performance remained stable[1][5]. Inflation Structure - Core goods inflation in December weakened significantly, primarily due to vehicle inflation, with new and used car prices showing 0% and -1.1% month-on-month changes respectively[2][15]. - Core services inflation saw a rebound, particularly in rent and super core services, with rent CPI increasing by 0.4% month-on-month in December, up from 0.2% in September[2][15]. Economic Outlook - In the first half of 2026, U.S. inflation may remain "sticky," but a "disinflation" phase is expected in the second half as tax cuts take effect, potentially boosting consumer income and spending[3][27]. - The Federal Reserve's rate cut timing may be delayed, as inflation is not currently the primary concern, and any rate cuts will depend on economic data showing significant weakness[3][27]. Risks - Potential risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the U.S. economy, and the Federal Reserve adopting a more hawkish stance if inflation proves more resilient than anticipated[3][39].

Overview - The overall CPI for December in the US met expectations, while the core CPI was slightly weaker than anticipated, primarily due to weak performance in the goods sector. The December CPI year-on-year was 2.7% and month-on-month was 0.3%, aligning with market expectations. However, the core CPI year-on-year was 2.6%, slightly below the expected 2.7%, and month-on-month was 0.2%, compared to the expected 0.3% [1][5][43]. Structure - Vehicle inflation significantly weakened, with new and used car prices showing month-on-month changes of 0% and -1.1%, respectively, which had a considerable negative impact. In contrast, clothing, toys, and other tariff-sensitive goods saw a month-on-month increase, indicating that tariff transmission may still have room to operate. Statistical biases, such as double-month samples and holiday effects, may have influenced inflation but to a lesser extent than market expectations [2][18][44]. - Core service inflation in December showed an uptick, particularly in rent and super core services. The rent CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month in December, up from 0.2% in September, although future rent inflation is expected to cool down. Non-rent services, including medical and transportation services, also saw an increase, with airfares rising to 5.2%, reflecting robust consumer demand in the US [2][24][44]. Outlook - In the first half of 2026, US inflation may remain sticky, but a transition to a "disinflation" phase is anticipated in the second half. The implementation of tax cuts in early 2026 is expected to gradually boost household income, consumption, and inflation, thereby enhancing the last mile of tariff transmission. However, as the impact of tax cuts diminishes in the latter half of 2026 and the first-year tariff transmission concludes, inflation is projected to begin a sustained decline [3][29][34][45]. - The Federal Reserve's response function indicates that inflation is not the primary concern at this time, and the pace of interest rate cuts may be delayed. The Fed is expected to adopt a data-dependent approach, considering rate cuts only if economic data shows significant weakness. The impact of the tax cuts from the "Inflation Reduction Act" on the economy and inflation will likely influence the timing of any rate cuts [3][34][45].

Overview - The overall CPI for December 2025 in the U.S. was 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, meeting expectations, while the core CPI was slightly weaker at 2.6% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 2.7% and 0.3% respectively[1][5]. - The market reaction to the CPI data was muted, with a slight increase in "rate cut trades" but overall performance remained stable[1][5]. Inflation Structure - Core goods inflation in December weakened significantly, primarily due to vehicle inflation, with new and used car prices showing 0% and -1.1% month-on-month respectively[2][14]. - Core services inflation saw an uptick, particularly in rent and super core services, with rent CPI increasing by 0.4% month-on-month compared to 0.2% in September[2][14]. Outlook for 2026 - Inflation in the first half of 2026 may remain sticky, but a "de-inflation" phase is expected in the second half as tax cuts take effect, potentially boosting consumer income and spending[3][25]. - The Federal Reserve's rate cut timing may be delayed, as inflation is not currently the primary concern, and any decision will depend on economic data trends[3][30]. Risks - Potential risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts, unexpected economic slowdown in the U.S., and the Federal Reserve adopting a more hawkish stance if inflation proves more resilient than anticipated[3][36].

Inflation Overview - The US CPI for December 2025 increased by 2.7% year-on-year, consistent with expectations, and the previous value was also 2.7%[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with forecasts[2] - Core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased by 2.6% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.7%[2] Key Contributors to Inflation - Food prices were a significant driver, rising 0.7% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.10 percentage points to overall inflation[2] - Energy prices showed mixed results, with a 0.3% month-on-month increase contributing about 0.02 percentage points, while gasoline prices fell by 0.5%[2] - Core inflation was primarily driven by service prices, which increased by 0.2% month-on-month, contributing 0.16 percentage points[2] Housing and Services Impact - Housing costs remained elevated, rising 0.4% month-on-month and contributing about 0.14 percentage points to inflation, accounting for nearly half of the overall increase[2] - Medical services rose by 0.4% month-on-month, while leisure services increased by 1.8%, indicating a broadening of service inflation[2] Market Implications - The inflation results suggest a moderate outlook, with little change in market expectations for interest rate cuts; the probability of a rate cut in April increased from approximately 38% to 42% following the data release[2] - The current core inflation remains above 2.6%, indicating that the Federal Reserve may maintain rates in March and consider cuts between April and June based on upcoming data[2] Risks to Inflation Outlook - Risks include the potential for service prices to decline less than expected, a directional reversal in energy prices, and renewed supply chain disruptions[5]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月14日 美国 12 月 CPI 点评 通胀扰动缓和，降息窗口待启 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 美东时间 1 月 13 日，美国劳工统计局公布 2025 年 12 月 CPI 通胀数据：同比来看，整体 CPI 录得 2.7%， 核心 CPI 录得 2.6%，均与上月持平。环比来看，整体 CPI 增速为 0.3%，核心 CPI 增速为 0.2%。 评论： 图1：12 月 CPI 通胀数据总览 | 行业类别 | | 12月CPI分项同比 | | | | 1 ...

2026 年 1 月 14 日 总量研究 通胀担忧缓和，但短期降息必要性不强 ——2025 年 12 月美国 CPI 数据点评 美国通胀温和上涨，为后续降息打开空间— — 2025 年 8 月美国 CPI 数 据 点 评 （2025-09-12） 关税传导可控，降息预期升温——2025 年 7 月美国 CPI 数据点评（2025-08-13） 关税影响逐步显性化——2025 年 6 月美国 CPI 数据点评（2025-07-16） 美国通胀压力何时显现？——2025年5月美 国 CPI 数据点评（2025-06-12） 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 如何看待"失真"的美国通胀数据？——2025 年 11 月美国 CPI 数据点评（2025-12-19） 美国通胀不及预期，为降息铺平道路—— 2025 年 9 月美国 CPI 数 据 点 评 （2025-10-25） 美国通胀继续回落， ...