智通财经记者 | 刘婷 分析人士指出，日元资产大跌可能会对全球流动性产生潜在不利影响。由于长期低利率环境，日元成为 全球融资货币，投资者利用日本的低利率，借入日元投资于美债、美股等高收益资产，进行套息交易， 而日债收益率上行可能触发日元套利交易平仓。 徐嘉琦表示，日债收益率的持续上行，可能导致套息交易减少，促使日本投资者资本回流，平仓海外头 寸并减少美元资产敞口，从而放大美股、美债等资产的下行风险，加剧全球金融市场波动。 "同时，日债暴跌打破了投资者对日本国债安全资产的预期，考虑到美国等其他发达经济体也面临债务 和通胀压力，日本债市波动和政府债务风险的相互强化可能会传染至其他发达经济体，推升这些国家长 期国债的期限溢价，进而催化全球长期国债收益率上行风险。"她表示。 易峘指出，此次补充预算规模21.3万亿日元，超过市场之前预期的17万亿-20万亿日元，补充预算占 2025财年日本GDP的2.8%，比2024财年提高0.4个百分点。往前看，对财政可持续性的担忧或推升日本 长端国债的风险溢价，导致长端国债的流动性进一步恶化。 "高市早苗刚上台时，市场对她还是有一个比较正向的预期的，对日本市场也是偏乐观，但是近期发 ...

Market Overview - The Nikkei 225 index initially rose over 1% but later experienced a significant drop, closing with a slight increase of 0.07% at 48,659.52 points [2] - SoftBank's stock plummeted to a two-and-a-half-month low, falling nearly 10% after a previous day's drop of 10.9%, primarily due to concerns over increased competition from Alphabet's new AI model [1][2] Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds surged above 1.8%, while the 30-year bond yield increased by 0.5 basis points to 3.325% [2] - Concerns regarding fiscal sustainability are rising as Japan's government implements a supplementary budget of 21.3 trillion yen, approximately 3% of GDP, which may exacerbate inflation risks [4][5] Economic Implications - The fiscal stimulus is expected to boost Japan's economic growth in the short term, but the lack of monetary policy normalization could lead to increased inflation risks [4] - The yield curve reflects market concerns about future economic growth and fiscal sustainability, with long-term bond liquidity weakening due to reduced demand from Japanese insurance companies [5] Regional Market Impact - The decline in the Japanese stock market has negatively affected other regional markets, including South Korea, Hong Kong, and A-shares, which saw reduced rebound momentum [3]

Market Overview - The Nikkei 225 index initially rose over 1% but later fell, closing up only 0.07% at 48,659.52 points [2] - SoftBank's stock experienced a significant drop, falling nearly 10% after a previous day's decline of 10.9%, attributed to concerns over increased competition from Alphabet's Gemini AI model against SoftBank's key investment, OpenAI [2][4] Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds surged above 1.8%, with the 30-year yield rising by 0.5 basis points to 3.325% [4] - Concerns about fiscal sustainability are rising due to Japan's increased fiscal stimulus, which may elevate the risk premium on long-term bonds and worsen their liquidity [8][9] Economic Policy and Implications - Japan's government announced a supplementary budget of 21.3 trillion yen, approximately 3% of GDP, marking a significant economic policy under the new administration [8] - While this budget is expected to boost short-term economic growth, it raises concerns about inflation risks in the absence of supportive monetary policy normalization [8] Regional Market Impact - The decline in the Japanese stock market has affected other regional markets, including South Korea, Hong Kong, and A-shares, which saw reduced rebound momentum [6] - Geopolitical tensions are contributing to a triple shock for the Japanese economy, including yen depreciation, rising bond yields, and a projected 60% decrease in Chinese tourist arrivals, potentially dragging GDP down by approximately 0.36% [9]

在业内人士看来，这场风暴的导火索是市场掀起的"高市交易"——投资者因预期日本内阁将推出远超预 期的财政支出计划，出于对财政可持续性的深度忧虑而大举抛售国债。 全景扫描——收益率曲线全面上移股债汇遭遇"三杀" 日本金融市场近期呈现出罕见的全线下跌态势。11月21日，日本内阁批准了高达21.3万亿日元（1354亿 美元）的经济刺激计划，这一规模庞大的支出方案立即引发了市场对日本财政状况持续恶化的担忧。 整体来看，当前收益率曲线呈现出明显的陡峭化上移，即短期国债收益率上行幅度相对可控，而超长期 国债遭遇持续抛售压力。 法国兴业银行全球策略师Albert Edwards将日本长期债券收益率的攀升评价为"极少被投资者重视的重大 警示信号"。他指出，这一变化预示着市场对日本财政可持续性的信心正在动摇。 新华财经北京11月25日电（王菁）近期，日本债券市场掀起一场"抛售风暴"，各期限债券收益率全线攀 升，接连突破历史高点。其中，10年期日本国债收益率最高触及1.842%，创下2008年全球金融危机以 来的最高水平。超长端收益率涨幅更为惊人，30年期日债收益率一度升至历史峰值。 复旦发展研究院金融研究中心主任孙立坚分析认为， ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan is facing significant market turmoil due to a combination of political, fiscal, and diplomatic pressures, leading to a sharp sell-off in government bonds and a decline in the yen's value [2][5][8]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Since mid-November, Japan's government bonds have experienced large-scale sell-offs, with the 10-year bond yield reaching its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis [2][5]. - The yen has depreciated significantly, hitting a 10-month low of 157 yen per dollar [2]. - The Nikkei 225 index fell by 3.48% over a week, dropping below 49,000 points [5]. Group 2: Economic Stimulus Plan - On November 21, the government announced an economic stimulus plan exceeding 21 trillion yen, with total expected investments reaching 42.8 trillion yen when including local government and private sector contributions [5]. - The plan includes tax cuts and energy subsidies, but concerns about its long-term impact on Japan's fiscal sustainability have overshadowed these measures [6][7]. Group 3: Fiscal Concerns - The scale of fiscal spending has exceeded market expectations, raising alarms about Japan's debt pressure and inflation risks [7]. - Despite assurances from the government regarding fiscal sustainability, market confidence remains low, with increasing skepticism about Japan's macroeconomic policy direction [7][8]. - Analysts suggest that the government may abandon its commitment to annual budget balance and long-term fiscal goals, heightening market sensitivity to fiscal issues [10]. Group 4: Diplomatic Tensions - Diplomatic tensions, particularly related to comments made by Prime Minister Kishi Nobuo regarding China, have led to strong protests from China, impacting Japan's tourism sector [10][11]. - Warnings from Chinese authorities about travel to Japan could result in a loss of approximately 2.2 trillion yen in tourism revenue over the next year [11].

（原标题：2026年财政法案：阿尔及利亚国民议会通过文本） 审议期间，委员会逐项听取修正案提出者的意见，讨论重点包括：减轻部分税费负担、进行有针对 性的财政调整、修改敏感预算条款，以及提升国家经济吸引力的措施。经过多轮讨论，委员会采纳了新 修正案并对部分条款进行修改，使法案更契合国家的经济和社会发展目标。文本在保持财政可持续性的 同时，更好地支持国家正在实施的结构性改革，并更加贴合公众期待，包括税制现代化、促进生产型投 资以及公共支出的合理化。 在国民议会通过后，法案将提交给国民院（Conseil de la Nation，阿国民院）进行二次审议，该程 序完成后，《2026年财政法案》将于明年初正式生效。 新闻网站Algérie 360，11月18日报道，阿尔及利亚国民议会(APN) 于2025年11月18日在议长布加利 主持的全体会议上正式通过《2026年财政法案》草案。这一通过标志着阿尔及利亚在当前经济改革加 速、财政框架需不断调整的背景下迈出的重要立法步骤。 在表决前，财政与预算委员会提交了补充报告，显示议员们围绕文本提出了12项修正建议，内容涉 及税收政策、促进增长机制以及改进公共管理绩效等领域。相关 ...

类别 宏观贵金属周报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 宏观金融研究团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 020-38909340 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 美联储 12 月会议或暂停降息 请阅读正文后的声明 周度报告 一、宏观环境评述 1.1 经济：中国财政收入加快修复 2025 年 1-10 月份中国一般公共预算收入累积同比增长 0.82%，增速较 1-9 的 0.5%进一步提升，财政收入加快修复为中国财政政策继续发挥稳增长作用提供了 必要条件。财政收入改善的影响因素，首先是在投资和消费支持政策以及反内卷 政策指引下，今年来企业利润状况改善；其次是 2026 年中国股票市场和贵金属市 场表现活跃，相关税收显著增长；最后是税务部门加强税收征缴管理工作 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government has approved its largest supplementary budget since the COVID-19 pandemic, amounting to 17.7 trillion yen (approximately 112 billion USD), aimed at addressing inflation and responding to voter demands, despite potential concerns regarding Japan's fiscal health [1][4]. Group 1: Stimulus Plan Details - The total scale of the stimulus plan reaches 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 135.4 billion USD), with a significant focus on price relief measures [1][4]. - Key components include 11.7 trillion yen allocated for price response, which involves direct cash subsidies to households and children, as well as support for local regions [4]. - Specific measures include 7,000 yen subsidies for gas and electricity bills per household, a one-time cash payment of 20,000 yen per child, and 2 trillion yen for local aid [4]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Inflation - The measures are expected to lower overall inflation indicators by an average of 0.7 percentage points between February and April of the following year [5]. - Japan's core consumer price index has remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 43 consecutive months, marking the longest streak since 1992 [4]. Group 3: Defense and Crisis Management - The plan includes 1.7 trillion yen for enhancing national defense and diplomatic capabilities, with 1.1 trillion yen aimed at increasing defense spending to 2% of GDP [5]. - An additional 700 billion yen is reserved for emergency responses to natural disasters and other unexpected events [5]. Group 4: Debt and Fiscal Sustainability - Concerns over rising debt levels have led to increased yields on Japanese government bonds, with the potential for bond issuance to exceed last year's levels [6]. - The government anticipates that the total amount of new bond issuance this fiscal year will be lower than the previous year's 42.1 trillion yen, with a reduction of about 20% compared to last year [6][7]. Group 5: Economic Growth Projections - The stimulus plan is projected to contribute to an average annual GDP growth of approximately 1.4 percentage points over three years [7]. - The Japanese economy experienced its first contraction in six quarters during the July-September period, partly due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies [7].

新华财经北京11月20日电在经济数据疲软与超大规模财政刺激预期的双重冲击下，日本金融市场近期剧 烈波动。日内盘中，10年期日本国债收益率攀升至1.80%上方，创下自2008年6月全球金融危机以来的 最高水平；40年期收益率飙升至3.747%的历史峰值，20年期收益率触及2.853%，至1999年以来新高。 日本内阁官房长官木原稔亦于稍早表态称，政府"正密切关注外汇市场，包括投机性在内的过度且无序 的波动"，并对近期汇率走势"感到担忧"，重申汇市应稳定反映经济基本面。 长期国债收益率的飙升还反映出结构性压力：通胀预期回升、货币政策正常化推进，以及传统买家（如 银行和保险公司）需求疲软。数据显示，今年以来30年期日债收益率已累计上涨逾100个基点，而同期 美国30年期国债收益率却有所回落，凸显日本债市的独特脆弱性。 市场正密切关注将于近期正式公布的补充预算细节及下周40年期国债标售结果，以评估财政风险溢价是 否将进一步扩大。 （文章来源：新华财经） 日本内阁府于11月17日公布的初步数据显示，2025年第三季度实际GDP环比下降0.4%，按年率计算下 降1.8%，为2024年第一季度以来首次负增长，亦终结了连续六 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the fourth China-Germany high-level financial dialogue is the establishment of 27 consensus points aimed at enhancing macroeconomic policy coordination and financial cooperation between the two countries [1][2] - Both parties reaffirmed the importance of the dialogue mechanism as a platform for bilateral communication and policy coordination on strategic, comprehensive, and long-term issues in the financial sector [1] - The consensus emphasizes the commitment to uphold international and multilateral cooperation, opposing unilateralism and trade protectionism, and maintaining a multilateral trading system centered on the World Trade Organization [1][2] Group 2 - The dialogue includes agreements to strengthen regulatory cooperation in the banking and insurance sectors, with Germany welcoming China's role in global commodity trading, particularly through the Shanghai Gold Exchange [2] - China encourages qualified German institutional investors to participate actively in the Chinese interbank market, while both sides promote financial technology cooperation between their respective financial institutions [2] - The first China-Germany high-level financial dialogue took place in 2015, resulting in 21 consensus points, with subsequent dialogues in 2019 and 2023 yielding multiple mutually beneficial outcomes [2]