National General Public Budget Revenue - The national general public budget revenue from January to August reached 14,819.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1] - Tax revenue accounted for 12,108.5 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue was 2,711.3 billion yuan, up by 1.5% [1] - Central government revenue was 6,426.8 billion yuan, down by 1.7% year-on-year, while local government revenue was 8,393.0 billion yuan, increasing by 1.8% [1] Major Tax Revenue Items - Domestic value-added tax generated 47,389 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [2] - Domestic consumption tax amounted to 11,523 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2% [3] - Corporate income tax reached 31,477 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.3% [4] - Personal income tax was 10,547 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 8.9% [5] - Import VAT and consumption tax totaled 11,770 billion yuan, down by 6.7% year-on-year, while customs duties were 1,527 billion yuan, decreasing by 6.5% [6] - Export tax rebates were 15,766 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9% [7] - Stamp duty revenue was 2,844 billion yuan, with a notable year-on-year increase of 27.4%, including a remarkable 81.7% increase in securities transaction stamp duty [10] National General Public Budget Expenditure - National general public budget expenditure from January to August totaled 17,932.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [19] - Central government expenditure was 26,570 billion yuan, up by 8% year-on-year, while local government expenditure was 152,754 billion yuan, increasing by 2.3% [19] Major Expenditure Items - Education expenditure reached 27,078 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6% [20] - Social security and employment expenditure was 30,723 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 10% [21] - Health expenditure amounted to 13,717 billion yuan, up by 5.1% year-on-year [22] - Urban and rural community expenditure decreased by 4.9% to 12,319 billion yuan [23] - Agricultural, forestry, and water expenditure fell by 9.4% to 13,589 billion yuan [23] Government Fund Budget Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund budget revenue from January to August was 26,449 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% [23] - Local government fund budget revenue was 23,516 billion yuan, down by 1.6%, with land use rights transfer revenue at 19,263 billion yuan, decreasing by 4.7% [23] - Government fund budget expenditure totaled 62,602 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 30% [23] - Local government fund budget expenditure was 54,993 billion yuan, up by 18.8% [23]

National General Public Budget Revenue - The national general public budget revenue for January to August reached 14,819.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.3% [1] - Tax revenue amounted to 12,108.5 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue was 2,711.3 billion yuan, up by 1.5% [1] - Central government revenue was 6,426.8 billion yuan, down by 1.7% year-on-year, whereas local government revenue was 8,393.0 billion yuan, increasing by 1.8% [1] Major Tax Revenue Items - Domestic value-added tax generated 4,738.9 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [2] - Domestic consumption tax totaled 1,152.3 billion yuan, with a growth of 2% [3] - Corporate income tax reached 3,147.7 billion yuan, up by 0.3% [4] - Personal income tax was 1,054.7 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 8.9% [5] - Import VAT and consumption tax amounted to 1,177.0 billion yuan, down by 6.7%, while customs duties were 152.7 billion yuan, decreasing by 6.5% [6] - Export tax rebates were 1,576.6 billion yuan, increasing by 9% [7] - Urban maintenance and construction tax reached 347.1 billion yuan, up by 2.9% [8] - Vehicle purchase tax was 133.4 billion yuan, down by 17.7% [9] - Stamp duty totaled 284.4 billion yuan, with a notable increase of 27.4%, including a significant rise of 81.7% in securities transaction stamp duty [10] - Resource tax was 194.3 billion yuan, down by 2.8% [11] - Deed tax reached 301.2 billion yuan, decreasing by 15.3% [12] - Property tax was 330.7 billion yuan, up by 11.5% [13] - Urban land use tax totaled 170.4 billion yuan, increasing by 6.3% [14] - Land value increment tax was 296.7 billion yuan, down by 18.3% [15] - Cultivated land occupation tax reached 100.1 billion yuan, up by 4% [16] - Environmental protection tax was 19.7 billion yuan, increasing by 11.5% [17] - Other tax revenues combined were 83.8 billion yuan, with a growth of 0.7% [18] National General Public Budget Expenditure - National general public budget expenditure for January to August was 17,932.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [19] - Central government expenditure was 2,657.0 billion yuan, up by 8%, while local government expenditure was 15,275.4 billion yuan, increasing by 2.3% [19] Major Expenditure Items - Education expenditure reached 2,707.8 billion yuan, with a growth of 5.6% [20] - Science and technology expenditure was 587.4 billion yuan, up by 3.1% [21] - Cultural, tourism, sports, and media expenditure totaled 227.2 billion yuan, increasing by 4.3% [22] - Social security and employment expenditure was 30,723.0 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 10% [22] - Health expenditure reached 13,717.0 billion yuan, up by 5.1% [22] - Energy conservation and environmental protection expenditure was 3,315.0 billion yuan, increasing by 6.6% [22] - Urban and rural community expenditure was 12,319.0 billion yuan, down by 4.9% [22] - Agriculture, forestry, and water expenditure totaled 13,589.0 billion yuan, decreasing by 9.4% [22] - Transportation expenditure was 7,128.0 billion yuan, down by 1.3% [22] - Debt interest payment expenditure reached 8,715.0 billion yuan, increasing by 5.9% [22] National Government Fund Budget Revenue - National government fund budget revenue for January to August was 2,644.9 billion yuan, down by 1.4% [23] - Central government fund budget revenue was 293.3 billion yuan, up by 0.6%, while local government fund budget revenue was 2,351.6 billion yuan, down by 1.6%, with land use rights transfer revenue at 1,926.3 billion yuan, decreasing by 4.7% [23] National Government Fund Budget Expenditure - National government fund budget expenditure for January to August was 62,602.0 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 30% [23] - Central government fund budget expenditure was 7,609.0 billion yuan, up by 3.1 times, while local government fund budget expenditure was 54,993.0 billion yuan, increasing by 18.8%, with land use rights transfer-related expenditure at 26,732.0 billion yuan, down by 4.1% [23]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the need for a more proactive fiscal policy to stimulate economic growth and improve budget execution efficiency [1][2]. Fiscal Policy and Spending - In the first seven months of the year, the broad fiscal expenditure reached approximately 21.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 9.3%, significantly outpacing the fiscal revenue growth of around 0% [2]. - The acceleration of budget execution is aimed at increasing investments in areas such as livelihood, technology, and major projects to stimulate overall economic demand [2]. Government Debt and Financing - The net financing of government bonds in the first seven months amounted to 8.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.88 trillion yuan year-on-year [3]. - The issuance of new special bonds by local governments reached approximately 3.3 trillion yuan in the first eight months, marking a year-on-year increase of 27%, which constitutes about 75% of the planned annual issuance [3]. Consumer and Service Sector Support - The government plans to implement policies to boost consumption, including personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan interest subsidies, with a subsidy rate of 1 percentage point [3]. - These policies aim to lower the credit costs for residents and service industry operators, thereby stimulating consumption potential [3]. Future Fiscal Focus Areas - The report outlines key fiscal priorities, including supporting employment and foreign trade, fostering new growth drivers, improving livelihood, managing risks in key areas, and enhancing fiscal governance [4].

Core Viewpoint - The financial market is experiencing increased attention on liquidity as over 20 trillion yuan in reverse repos are set to expire this week, alongside other factors such as MLF expirations and government bond issuances, indicating a tightening liquidity environment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Liquidity Dynamics - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has conducted reverse repo operations totaling 4.384 billion yuan over the first two days of September, while the total reverse repos maturing during this period amounted to 6.942 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2.558 billion yuan [2][3]. - The PBOC is expected to maintain a reasonable liquidity level in September, with analysts predicting that funding rates will likely continue to operate at low levels with minimal fluctuations due to supportive monetary policy and anticipated fiscal spending [5][6]. Group 2: Seasonal and Non-Seasonal Factors - September is characterized by increased seasonal disturbances in liquidity, particularly as fiscal spending typically accelerates towards the end of the month, which may provide some support to the liquidity environment [6][7]. - The strong performance of the equity market and heightened risk appetite may drive funds to reallocate across various asset classes, while the end-of-quarter credit issuance may be more pronounced than in previous years, potentially amplifying liquidity fluctuations [7].

Revenue Insights - In July 2025, the national general public budget revenue increased by 2.7% year-on-year, improving from a decline of -0.3% in June[1] - Tax revenue grew by 5.0% in July, significantly higher than the previous month's growth of 1.0%, while non-tax revenue fell by 12.9%[5] - The cumulative general public budget revenue from January to July showed a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, compared to a decline of -0.3% previously[7] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure in July rose by 3.0% year-on-year, accelerating by 2.6 percentage points from May[8] - Cumulative expenditure from January to July grew by 3.4%, slightly below the average progress of 54.4% over the past five years, completing 54.1% of the annual budget[9] Government Fund Performance - In July, government fund revenue increased by 8.9% year-on-year, although this was a decrease of 11.9 percentage points from the previous month[10] - Government fund expenditure in July surged by 42.4% year-on-year, despite a slowdown of 36.8 percentage points from the previous month[11] - From January to July, government fund expenditure grew by 31.7%, significantly outpacing the revenue growth due to accelerated issuance of local government special bonds, totaling 2.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 1 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year[11]

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Insights - The growth rate of general public budget revenue turned positive, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1% from January to July, ending the negative growth trend observed earlier in the year[4] - In July, the monthly growth rate reached 2.6%, the highest for the year, with both central and local revenue growth hitting new highs[4] - Major tax categories, including corporate income tax, domestic value-added tax, personal income tax, and consumption tax, contributed 94% to the revenue growth, indicating a structural improvement in revenue sources[4][25] Group 2: Fiscal Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure grew by 3.4% year-on-year from January to July, maintaining stability but showing significant divergence between central and local expenditures[5] - Central expenditure increased by 8.8%, while local expenditure growth fell to 2.5%, the lowest for the year, reflecting challenges in local fiscal management[5] - Social security and health expenditures showed strong growth, with social security spending increasing by 9.8% and health spending by 5.3%, while infrastructure-related expenditures remained weak[38] Group 3: Government Fund Performance - Government fund revenue saw a year-on-year decline of 0.7%, but the rate of decline improved, primarily due to better land transfer income[5] - Land transfer income decreased by 4.6%, indicating ongoing weakness in the real estate market, while government fund expenditure surged by 31.7%[5] - The issuance of special bonds by local governments accelerated, with completion rates reaching 63.1% of the annual quota, a 14 percentage point increase from previous values[5] Group 4: Policy Outlook and Risks - Future fiscal policies will focus on accelerating existing policies and enhancing new tools to stimulate economic growth, as indicated by recent government meetings[6] - Despite improvements in fiscal revenue and expenditure structures, challenges remain, particularly in meeting budget completion rates and addressing weaknesses in real estate-related tax revenues[6][7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The fiscal data in July continued to show a warming trend. The improvement on the tax side led to a slight acceleration in narrow - fiscal spending, while broad - fiscal spending maintained resilience supported by special bonds for bank capital injection and ultra - long - term special bonds. Based on the current progress, it is estimated that the fiscal strength in the second half of the year can achieve a smooth continuation, and the probability of supplementing fiscal funds through additional bond issuance within the year is low [1][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Tax Revenue Situation - In July 2025, the national general budget revenue increased by 2.7% year - on - year, with significant tax contribution. Tax revenue increased by 5.0% year - on - year, 4 percentage points higher than the previous value, while non - tax revenue decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, with negative growth for three consecutive months and an expanding decline. The total general budget revenue from January to July increased by 0.1% year - on - year, reaching the annual budget target and completing about 62% of the annual budget, faster than the same period last year. In July, central fiscal revenue increased by 2.2% year - on - year, and local fiscal revenue increased by 3.1% year - on - year [1][2]. - In terms of tax structure, major tax items generally showed high year - on - year growth. Personal income tax and consumption tax increased by 13.9% and 5.4% respectively in July, with their cumulative year - on - year growth from January to July being 8.8% and 2.1%. Corporate income tax increased by 6.4% year - on - year in July. VAT increased by 4.3% year - on - year in July, showing a slight decline but overall remaining stable. Most real - estate - related taxes saw a decline in growth, while securities trading stamp duty increased significantly by 125.4% year - on - year in July [3][4]. General Budget Expenditure - In July, general public budget expenditure increased by 3.0% year - on - year, 2.7 percentage points higher than the previous value. The cumulative year - on - year growth from January to July was 3.4%, 1 percentage point away from the annual target. The main driving force for expenditure was on the livelihood front, such as social security and employment, health, and education, while infrastructure - related expenditure remained in the negative range, and science - related expenditure turned negative [4]. Government - Fund Revenue - In July, national government - fund revenue increased by 8.9% year - on - year, with a marginal slowdown in growth. The cumulative year - on - year decline from January to July further narrowed to 0.7%, and the annual budget target is 0.7%. The cumulative year - on - year decline in state - owned land use right transfer revenue narrowed to 4.6%. The government - fund revenue in the first half of the year completed about 37% of the annual progress, significantly faster than the same period last year [6]. Government - Fund Expenditure - In July, national government - fund expenditure increased by 42.4% year - on - year, still at a high level although it declined compared to the previous value. The cumulative year - on - year growth in the first half of the year was 31.7%, above the annual budget target of 23.1%. The budget completion progress of government - fund expenditure for the whole year was about 43%, faster than the same period in previous years. The combined broad - fiscal deficit of the two accounts in the first seven months reached 5.6 trillion, 1.8 trillion higher than the same period last year [7]. Overall Fiscal Outlook - The first - account target is expected to be achieved, while the second - account may have a small gap. Assuming the annual growth rate of the second - account revenue is around - 5%, there may be a revenue gap of about 300 - 50 billion by the end of the year. However, government - fund revenue and expenditure are not rigid requirements, and the expected 500 - billion - yuan policy - based financial instruments can basically offset the gap [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies in China, which are contributing to stable economic performance, as evidenced by the fiscal data for the first seven months of the year [2][6]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first seven months of this year, the total broad fiscal revenue was approximately 15.9 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to the same period last year [2]. - Broad fiscal expenditure reached about 21.5 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of approximately 9.3% [2]. - The gap between fiscal expenditure and revenue was about 5.6 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of approximately 47% [2]. Tax Revenue Trends - Tax revenue saw a decline of 3.5% in the first quarter, but this was followed by four months of growth, narrowing the decline to 0.3% for the first seven months [3]. - The increase in tax revenue is attributed to stable growth in VAT and significant increases in securities transaction stamp duty due to active stock market trading [3]. Land Revenue and Local Government Financing - Land transfer revenue for the first seven months was approximately 1.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.6% [5]. - To maintain expenditure levels, both central and local governments accelerated bond issuance, with net financing of government bonds reaching 8.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.88 trillion yuan year-on-year [5]. Social Spending and Policy Focus - Fiscal spending in the social welfare sector has been prioritized, with expenditures on social security, education, and healthcare growing faster than overall spending [6]. - Recent policies, such as pension increases and childcare subsidies, indicate a focus on investing in human capital [6]. Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for continued macroeconomic policy support in the second half of the year, with a focus on implementing proactive fiscal policies and maintaining efficient fund usage [6]. - There is a belief that even without extraordinary fiscal measures, the real support for the economy in the second half could match that of the first half, with adjusted fiscal expenditure growth projected between 4.1% and 6.7% [6]. Preparedness for Economic Uncertainty - The Ministry of Finance has indicated that it retains sufficient policy space and tools to respond to potential uncertainties in the economy [7]. - The focus remains on stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations to support economic development and social stability [7].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to July, the national general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, marking the first positive growth of the year [1] - Public budget expenditure during the same period was 160,737 billion yuan, up 3.4% year-on-year, with strong support for key areas [1] Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue showed signs of recovery, with total tax revenue from January to July at 110,933 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, but the decline narrowed compared to the first half of the year [2] - In July, tax revenue increased by 5.0% year-on-year, driven primarily by personal income tax and corporate income tax, which grew by 13.9% and 6.4% respectively [2] - The growth in personal income tax was attributed to low base effects, regulatory upgrades, and stock market performance, while the decline in value-added tax growth from 5.0% to 4.3% was linked to a slowdown in industrial value-added growth [2] Non-Tax Revenue Insights - Non-tax revenue for the first seven months was 24,906 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%, but the growth rate slowed down significantly in July, dropping from -3.7% to -12.9% [3] - The decline in non-tax revenue was attributed to a high base effect from the previous year and the effectiveness of enhanced management of confiscated income [3] Expenditure Focus - Public budget expenditure from January to July was 160,737 billion yuan, with significant increases in social security and employment (9.8%), education (5.7%), and health (5.3%) [4] - The acceleration of expenditure in key areas aligns with macroeconomic counter-cyclical policy adjustments, with social security and employment, health, and education expenditures progressing faster than the overall budget expenditure [4][5] July Expenditure Trends - In July, public budget expenditure grew by 3.0%, with notable increases in spending on education, culture, sports, and health, while technology spending saw a decline of 30.5% due to high base effects [5] - Local government special bonds and other financial instruments contributed to a significant increase in government fund budget expenditure, which grew by 31.7% [5]

Revenue Insights - In July, general public budget revenue reached 2.03 trillion, marking a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, the first positive growth since the beginning of the year[3] - Monthly revenue growth rebounded significantly by 3.0 percentage points to a new high of 2.6%[3] - Tax revenue increased by 4.0 percentage points to 5.0%, the highest monthly figure since December of the previous year[3] Tax Contributions - The contribution of stamp duty saw a notable improvement, significantly influenced by favorable capital market performance in July[3] - Non-tax revenue continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 12.9%, exacerbating the overall revenue growth pressure[3] - Value-added tax contribution fell by 0.1 percentage points, highlighting ongoing domestic demand weakness and low inflation impact on corporate revenues[3] Fiscal Expenditure and Gaps - Fiscal expenditure in July rose by 2.7 percentage points to 3.0%, with most major expenditure areas showing varying degrees of increase[12] - The budget revenue-expenditure gap narrowed slightly to 2.49 trillion, but remains substantial, necessitating continued government bond financing[12] - Cumulative fiscal deficit from January to July expanded by 1.83 trillion, with government debt financing reaching 67.1% of the annual plan, significantly higher than the previous two years[26] Real Estate and Land Revenue - Government fund budget revenue fell sharply by 11.9% year-on-year to 8.9%, primarily due to a 14.7% drop in land transfer revenue[18] - The contribution of land transfer revenue to government fund budget revenue decreased by 11.1 percentage points to 5.3%[18] - The real estate market remains unstable, with significant imbalances in housing price-to-income ratios in major cities, affecting land market activity[18] Future Outlook - If domestic and external demand continues to decline, there is a pressing need for the central government to adopt a more aggressive fiscal expansion strategy[26] - The potential impact of new tariffs from the U.S. on exports necessitates ongoing monitoring of economic indicators[26] - The overall economic environment suggests that substantial improvements in fiscal revenue are unlikely in the coming months[3]