Geopolitical Risks - The geopolitical conflicts are expected to remain the biggest risk in 2026, with the U.S. focusing on Monroe Doctrine in the Western Hemisphere and increasing geopolitical tensions in Latin America and the Arctic[11] - The global geopolitical risk index is hovering around 140, indicating a second structural peak since the post-9/11 era, driven by systemic strategic competition among major powers[11] - The U.S. military operation against Venezuela's President Maduro marks a shift in U.S. strategy towards focusing on regional control of strategic resources[13][14] Economic Outlook - The global economy is projected to grow at around 3.0% in 2026, with developed economies expected to grow at approximately 1.6% and emerging economies at about 4.0%[31] - The U.S. economy is anticipated to maintain a growth rate of around 2%, supported by fiscal policies and technological advancements, despite facing structural challenges in the labor market[32] - The EU's economic growth is expected to remain sluggish at about 1.4%, hindered by high core inflation and weak performance in key economies like Germany and France[34] Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve is likely to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy in 2026, with potential rate cuts of 2-3 times, influenced by political pressures and economic conditions[20][23] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain a "middle strategy" in its monetary policy, balancing between controlling inflation and stimulating economic growth, with rates around 2%[24][26] - The Bank of Japan is projected to continue its gradual rate hikes, potentially reaching around 1% by 2026, amid challenges from fiscal policies and inflationary pressures[27][28] Fiscal Policies - Expansionary fiscal policies are expected to dominate globally, with developed economies' fiscal deficit rates around 5.0% and emerging economies around 6.0%[38][40] - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to remain high at approximately 7.5%, driven by the "Big and Beautiful Act" aimed at stimulating economic activity[38] - Japan's fiscal deficit is expected to expand to around 2.0%, as the government continues to prioritize fiscal expansion to boost domestic demand[40]

文/中欧国际工商学院教授、中国首席经济学家论坛研究院院长 盛松成 考虑到货币政策与财政政策的协同，以及我国消费和投资利率弹性有限， 降准 的适配性 或优于 降 息 。未 来 货币 政策 面临 的内 外约 束有 望进 一 步缓 解，我国降准、降息仍有空间，但需等待更有利的时机。 在1月15日国务院新闻办召开的新闻发布会上，中国人民银行宣布了货币金融政策支持实体经济高质量发展的增量政策措施，包括以结构性"降息"和定向 工具扩容为核心，引导金融机构降低对实体经济重点领域的融资成本。央行降低结构性货币政策工具利率，与典型意义上的降息有明显区别，但就目前经 济形势所需要的政策支持来说，是更为精准和适宜的。 根据传统理论和各国操作，货币政策基本是总量调控工具，但长期以来在我国，货币政策实际上大都是总量调控和结构性调控相互配合。尤其是近年来， 我国结构性货币政策工具不断创新，发挥重要作用，是支持经济薄弱环节和重点领域、推动经济高质量发展的有效手段。 在结构性货币政策工具的运用中，我们一般更加关注对特定领域的激励作用。其中，既有"量"的投放，也有"价"的激励。过去我们更多通过调整额度， 从"量"的方面引导银行信贷投放方向，而 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations. Influenced by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, the LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's rate - cut expectations and global trade uncertainties increased the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a 0.80% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a - 1.90% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan (+0.47%); M2 year - on - year growth was 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% (+6.25%); Manufacturing PMI was 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% (-1.60%) [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 97.61, up 0.49 (+0.50%); The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9411, down 0.011 (-0.16%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.49, down 0.10 (-6.01%); DR007 was 1.49, down 0.10 (-6.40%); R007 was 1.68, up 0.17 (+11.44%); The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.58, unchanged (+0.00%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, unchanged (+0.00%) [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury and Treasury Futures Market The report provides multiple charts showing the trends and proportions related to the treasury futures market, including the closing prices, price changes, precipitation of funds, positions, and net positions of various treasury futures varieties [13][14][18]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The report presents charts on the inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, local government bond issuance, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, treasury bond issuance, Shibor interest rate trends, and the yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) [24][27][29]. IV. Spread Overview The report shows the trends of inter - period spreads of various treasury futures varieties and the spreads between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads through multiple charts [34][35][37]. V. Two - Year Treasury Futures The report includes charts on the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the two - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [43][45]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Futures The report provides charts on the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the five - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [47][55]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Futures The report offers charts on the implied yield and the maturity yield of the ten - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [56][57]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Futures The report contains charts on the implied yield and the maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [62][67]. 4. Strategies - **Unilateral**: As the repurchase rate declines, the prices of treasury futures oscillate [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].

新华财经北京2月3日电日本财务大臣片山皋月表示，首相高市早苗在上周末并没有过度强调日元贬值的 好处。此举暗示片山正试图维持市场对政府干预风险的警惕。 （文章来源：新华财经） 随着2月8日众议院大选临近，交易员们正准备应对加剧的市场波动。他们押注高市早苗领导的自民党可 能会赢得大胜。这种结果可能为更激进的财政政策铺平道路，进而可能推高通胀，并给日元和日本国债 带来压力。 片山皋月表示："她只是对日元汇率做出了教科书式的回应，并没有特别强调日元疲软的利好。"她补充 称，自己赞同高市早苗的立场，即日元贬值有利有弊。 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, indicated that the recent comments by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida did not overly emphasize the benefits of a weak yen, suggesting an attempt to maintain market speculation about government intervention risks [1] - Kishida stated that a weak yen could provide significant opportunities for export-oriented industries, which has reduced speculation about government intervention in the yen's exchange rate [1] - The yen fell back to the 155 level on Monday and hovered around 155.50 on Tuesday morning, indicating ongoing volatility in the currency market [1] Group 2 - Kishida mentioned that a weak yen is beneficial for Japan's foreign exchange fund special accounts, which the government uses for various purposes, including currency intervention [1] - Suzuki emphasized that Japan will continue to coordinate closely with the United States, hinting at potential joint actions in the market [1] - As the House of Representatives election approaches on February 8, traders are preparing for increased market volatility, betting on a likely overwhelming victory for Kishida's Liberal Democratic Party, which could pave the way for more aggressive fiscal policies [1]

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Policy Direction - The 2026 macroeconomic outlook emphasizes the importance of the "15th Five-Year Plan," which marks a shift in policy focus towards economic construction, consumption, and technological development [1][6][17] - Key adjustments in the "15th Five-Year Plan" include a renewed emphasis on balancing economic growth with safety, promoting urban-rural integration, and reforming the fiscal and tax system [1][6][8] - China's economic growth rate has decreased to around 5%, but it remains competitive compared to emerging markets like Vietnam and India, highlighting the need for a focus on maintaining reasonable growth [1][7] Group 2: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Changes - Significant changes in monetary policy now include promoting stable economic development and reasonable price recovery as key considerations, moving away from a sole focus on inflation [2][10] - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a deficit rate of around 4%, with an emphasis on necessary debt levels and total expenditure [2][10] - The policy aims to optimize existing demand through measures like "trade-in" programs and removing unreasonable restrictions to stimulate consumption [2][11] Group 3: Global Economic Context - The U.S. economy shows signs of weakness, with a cooling job market and a decline in the dollar's reserve status, while the European economy faces multiple challenges, including energy crises [4][15] - Despite a 35% drop in real estate prices over five years, China's economy has shown resilience, supported by advancements in semiconductor equipment, digital economy, and artificial intelligence [4][12] - China's trade surplus is projected to reach $1.2 trillion by 2025, indicating a balanced trade relationship with the U.S. despite ongoing trade tensions [12][16] Group 4: Consumer and Investment Dynamics - The core policy direction for 2026 is to boost consumption, with a significant gap between service consumption in China (18% of GDP) compared to the U.S. (46%), primarily due to urban-rural disparities [4][17] - Investment pressures are evident, with fixed asset investment declining by 12%, although this figure may not accurately reflect the actual investment situation [11][12] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to enhance consumer spending through urban-rural integration and regulatory relaxation, such as in the automotive and yacht sectors [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the Treasury bond futures market is expected to continue the volatile pattern and it is difficult to form a unilateral trend. The current market has both long and short factors. On one hand, institutional allocation demand and the risk - hedging property of RMB assets support the market, especially for ultra - long - term varieties. On the other hand, stock market performance, policy expectations, and changes in supply - demand relations will jointly affect market fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, the bond market trend depends on the sustainability of economic recovery, the actual strength of fiscal policy, and the subsequent direction of monetary policy. If economic data such as inflation continues to pick up and more regions are able to expand their balance sheets after debt resolution, the possibility of interest rates rising after reaching the bottom will increase [4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints - Last week, the Treasury bond futures market showed differentiation between long and short ends. The ultra - long - end center slowly declined with the TL main contract down 0.34% for the week, the 10 - year main contract steadily rose slightly with a weekly gain of about 0.11%, and the medium - and short - term maturities changed little. Market fluctuations were mainly in equities and commodities. The turning point of risk assets on Friday was due to factors like the Iranian situation, new Fed candidates, US policy shutdown risk, and risks in the US stock market during the earnings season. Domestic bonds were less affected by other major asset classes. The central bank continuously released liquidity through reverse repurchase, with a total of 176.15 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations for the week, achieving a net injection after offsetting maturities. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate remained stable at 1.40%, and the weighted average DR007 rate fluctuated around the policy rate, keeping the funds reasonably abundant. The marginal weakness of the ultra - long end might be due to some long - position funds taking profits at the beginning of the week, causing the TL2603 contract to correct. However, the long - term allocation demand from the "good start" dividend - insurance sales of insurance institutions and the inflow of foreign risk - hedging funds supported the price to stabilize around 112 yuan [4] 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The content mainly presents various charts related to liquidity, including open - market operations (volume and price), medium - term lending facilities (volume and price), deposit - based pledged repurchase, SHIBOR, Shanghai Stock Exchange pledged repurchase rate, bond - pledged repurchase rate, R007&DR007 spread and trading volume, inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate, excess reserve ratio, LPR, deposit reserve ratio, Treasury bond yields, Treasury bond term spreads, US Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond term spreads. But there is no specific text summary of these data [8][9][11] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The content shows various indicators of Treasury bond futures arbitrage, including basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts in the current quarter. But there is no specific text analysis of these indicators [38][41][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall allocation value of the convertible bond market has decreased, with only trading and gaming value remaining in the process, and the medium - to - long - term expected returns are low or negative [29]. - In 2025, the performance of pure - bond funds continued to weaken, while "fixed - income plus" funds had an advantage. They are entering a new development stage [30]. - In January, the industrial high - frequency data rebounded, mainly affected by the Spring Festival date shift. Policy - related impacts are still evident, but policy - based financial tools may improve the construction and infrastructure sectors. In the short term, it is difficult to expect total - volume monetary policies, and the second quarter may be a possible time for total - volume interest rate cuts [30]. - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the scale of money market funds increased beyond the seasonal norm, but the number decreased. In the future, the yields of money market funds may continue to decline, and the scale growth may slow down [31]. - Despite the interest rate reversal between China and Japan, global funds prefer low - interest - rate China due to factors such as exchange rates. China will eventually emerge from low inflation and enter a new cycle [31]. - Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman may lead to a change in Fed policies. The overall orientation of monetary policy remains relatively loose, but in the medium term, the erosion of the Fed's independence may continue to reduce the intrinsic value of the US dollar [32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - In December 2025, GDP growth at constant prices was 4.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous period and the same period last year. The Manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was 49.3%, and the Non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, both showing a decline [1]. - In December 2025, the total social financing scale was 2.2075 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 910 billion yuan, showing a decrease compared to the previous period [1]. - In December 2025, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In January 2026, China's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined. The market demand was insufficient, and the financial market was active [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the price limit and margin ratio of silver futures contracts from February 3 [2]. - In 2025, the GDP data of 31 provinces in China was released. Tibet led the country in economic growth, driven by major infrastructure projects [2]. - The CME raised the trading margin requirements for gold and silver futures due to the sharp decline in precious metal prices. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chairman may lead to policy adjustments [3]. - The WTO ruled that the US clean energy subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act violated WTO rules [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - The nomination of Kevin Warsh triggered a sharp decline in the global precious metal market. Spot silver, gold, platinum, and palladium all fell significantly. Some domestic gold jewelry prices also decreased [5]. - Some banks adjusted their gold accumulation businesses, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange took measures against abnormal trading in some funds [6][7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of mid - January 2026, the price of rebar reached a new high since late August 2025, rising 0.34% month - on - month [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - In 2025, the national power market trading volume reached 6.64 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. The new energy storage installed capacity exceeded 130 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 84% [9]. - Trump issued an executive order threatening tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba and taking measures against Canadian aircraft. India may reduce Russian oil imports [9]. - The EU plans to ban maritime services for Russian oil transportation as part of new sanctions [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Since February 2, 2026, a 5% temporary import tariff rate has been implemented on whiskey [12]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 1.7615 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire in the central bank's open market, and 700 billion yuan of 91 - day repurchase agreements will expire on Wednesday [13]. - On January 30, the central bank conducted 477.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 352.5 billion yuan [13]. 3.3.2 Important News and Information - In January 2026, China's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined, mainly due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [14]. - The Politburo emphasized the development of future industries. President Xi Jinping's article on building a financial power was published [14][15]. - Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman, but the nomination faces opposition. The UK Prime Minister visited China, and the two sides reached multiple cooperation agreements [16][17]. - In 2025, China's national fiscal revenue decreased by 1.7%, and fiscal expenditure increased by 1%. The operating income of state - owned enterprises increased slightly, while the total profit decreased [17]. - Tax policies were adjusted, including changes to the VAT threshold for natural persons and clarification of VAT calculation methods [18]. - In 2025, Tibet led the country in economic growth, and many provinces planned to use local government bonds to acquire idle land [19]. - In January 2026, the average price of second - hand homes in 100 cities decreased, while the price of new homes increased in some cities [19]. - The China Banking Association issued guidelines for consumer loan collection. The issuance of refinancing special bonds for debt replacement accelerated, and local government explicit debt increased [19][20]. - Convertible bond funds performed well, while bond ETFs faced capital outflows. The US Senate passed an appropriation bill, but the government entered a partial shutdown [20][21]. - Japan was still under US Treasury monitoring, and some bonds were suspended or had changes in their transfer methods [21][22]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - On January 30, the Chinese bond market fluctuated. Interest - rate bond yields changed little, and treasury bond futures showed mixed performance. Money market rates showed different trends [24]. - In the exchange - traded bond market, some Vanke bonds rose, and some other bonds fell. The convertible bond index declined [24][25]. - US Treasury yields showed different trends, with short - term yields falling and long - term yields rising [27]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - On Friday, the on - shore RMB depreciated against the US dollar, and the US dollar index rose. Most non - US currencies depreciated [28]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Different securities firms have different views on the convertible bond market, "fixed - income plus" funds, monetary policies, and money - market funds [29][30][31]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On February 2, 143 bonds will be listed, 124 bonds will be issued, 85 bonds will require payment, and 399 bonds will pay principal and interest [33]. 3.4 Stock Market Important News - As of January 31, 3057 A - share listed companies disclosed their 2025 annual performance forecasts. 53.6% of them were optimistic. Industries such as non - ferrous metals and new energy showed good performance [34].

Group 1: Company Insights - Qilu Bank (601665) is identified as a growth-oriented city commercial bank in Shandong province, with expected continued high profit growth supported by regional expansion and favorable non-performing asset generation [5] - The target price for Qilu Bank is set at 7.47 CNY per share, representing a 33% upside potential based on a 2026 target PB valuation of 0.85x [5] - Revenue projections for Qilu Bank are estimated at 13,019 million CNY, 13,652 million CNY, and 14,494 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profit forecasts of 5,708 million CNY, 6,396 million CNY, and 7,144 million CNY [5] Group 2: Industry Insights - The automotive parts industry, particularly in passenger car seating, is noted for its high design barriers and substantial profit margins in high-end models, indicating significant valuation upside potential for the sector [3][19] - The report highlights the resilience of Middle Eastern exports, driven by non-oil economic transformation, with strong import growth supported by fiscal and sovereign fund initiatives [10] - The bond market is expected to experience moderate recovery, with a focus on structural opportunities in credit varieties, as the market is currently viewed as having limited negative factors [14]

Group 1 - In January, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, indicating a decline in economic sentiment [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a decrease in overall economic activity [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index also dropped to 49.8%, showing a general downturn in economic conditions [1] Group 2 - The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to seasonal factors, as many industries enter a traditional off-peak period in January [2] - The PMI index is affected by a high base effect from December 2025, which saw a significant increase, thus impacting January's figures [2] - Weak internal investment and consumption demand, along with high external uncertainties, are major factors dragging down the manufacturing sector [2] Group 3 - The raw material purchase price index rose to 56.1%, while the factory price index increased to 50.6%, marking the first time in nearly 20 months that the factory price index exceeded the critical point [3] - The difference between the raw material purchase price index and the factory price index indicates a transfer of profits upstream [3] - Recent structural policies aimed at supporting small and medium enterprises and technology firms are expected to take time to positively impact the manufacturing sector [3] Group 4 - The non-manufacturing business activity index's decline is influenced by the downturn in industries such as construction, with the index falling to 49.4% [4] - The real estate sector's business activity index dropped below 40.0%, indicating a weak overall sentiment in that industry [4] - Financial services and capital market services showed higher activity levels, with indices above 65.0%, reflecting a more active market [4] Group 5 - The overall macroeconomic sentiment is declining due to seasonal fluctuations, high previous month bases, and insufficient effective demand from the real estate market [5] - The manufacturing production index is expected to decline significantly in February due to the extended Spring Festival holiday [5] - Future manufacturing sentiment will be influenced by export growth, real estate market trends, and the timing and intensity of growth-stimulating policies [5]