Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant impact of Israel's large-scale attack on Iran, which has shaken global markets and heightened geopolitical tensions [1][3]. - Following the attack, U.S. stock markets experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping over 700 points at one point, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices fell approximately 0.4% [2]. - Oil prices saw substantial volatility, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil surging over 10% before retreating more than half of that gain, indicating heightened market sensitivity to geopolitical events [3]. Group 2 - The attack has led to a surge in safe-haven assets, particularly gold, which remains near historical highs, reflecting investor caution amid rising geopolitical risks [5][7]. - Energy and defense stocks have risen, while airline and tourism companies faced declines, showcasing a shift in market sentiment towards sectors perceived as safer during geopolitical turmoil [3]. - The timing of the attack disrupted a previously favorable risk appetite in the market, as recent U.S. inflation indicators had shown improvement and trade negotiations with China were progressing [7]. Group 3 - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated that the U.S. was aware of the attack beforehand and emphasized the goal of destroying Iran's ballistic missile production capabilities, which currently stands at 300 missiles per month [8][9]. - Former President Trump stated that Iran officials have expressed interest in negotiating a nuclear deal, suggesting that the attack may not preclude diplomatic discussions [10][11]. - Trump also remarked that the attack could be beneficial for the market, as it implies that Iran would not possess nuclear weapons, which he believes would be a positive outcome for market stability [12].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 黑色系表现弱势，金、油相对偏强 ——中信期货晨报20250613 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | STC BEY LES CALL HOW BAY ARE | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | 殷指 | 沪深300期货 | 3883.6 | 0.12% | 0.73% | 1.60% | 0.65% | -0.95% | | | 上证50期货 | 2682.2 | -0.01% | 0.32% | 0.56% | 0.61% | 0.16% | | | 中证500期货 | 5780 | 0.33% | 0.95% | 2.70% ...

Group 1 - HSBC has a positive outlook for the second half of 2025, noting a rebound in trading activity in the US market despite some signs of demand being pulled forward [1] - The bank suggests an overweight position in equities, high-yield bonds, and emerging market bonds, driven by optimism around artificial intelligence and a weaker dollar [1] - Historical data indicates that during periods of high economic policy uncertainty, risk assets tend to rebound rather than decline further [1] Group 2 - Market confidence in the US government's tax reduction agenda is waning, with potential agreements in the summer serving as a short-term catalyst for risk asset increases, provided long-term yields do not rise sharply [2] - Downside risks include a rising unemployment rate and US Treasury yields approaching a "danger zone" of 4.7%, which could trigger widespread selling of risk assets [2] - HSBC plans to slightly overweight equities and increase positions during market pullbacks, particularly in US stocks, while maintaining an overweight in emerging markets and high-yield credit [2]

Group 1 - The market experienced a sharp decline on Tuesday but managed to recover on Wednesday, indicating strong resilience despite concerns over external negative news [1] - The index showed hesitation in breaking through the 3400-point level, leading to continued consolidation and a lack of sustained trading volume, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [1] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector saw upward movement driven by positive news expectations, while previously leading sectors like bioproducts, communication services, and port shipping experienced pullbacks, indicating a "short and quick" rotation of market hotspots [1] Group 2 - The short-term outlook suggests continued mild consolidation, with attention on upcoming monthly macroeconomic data and trading volume changes [1] - According to technical analysis principles, a sustained increase in trading volume is necessary for the market to choose a direction [1]

从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F0314 ...

Market Overview - The successful outcome of the China-US-Switzerland talks on May 12 significantly boosted global risk appetite, leading to a general rise in global stock indices[5] - In May, the 20-year US Treasury auction was cold, with the final yield at 5.047%, raising concerns about US fiscal pressure[6] Global Fund Flows - In May, global equity funds saw a significant outflow from emerging markets, totaling $8.3 billion, while developed markets experienced an inflow of $30.5 billion[13] - Developed European equity funds received inflows of $24.7 billion, while Chinese equity funds faced a substantial outflow of $10.9 billion[25] China Market Dynamics - In May, China's fixed income market saw a notable inflow of $4.9 billion, while the equity market experienced a significant outflow[15] - The inflow ratio for Chinese fixed income funds was 5.6%, while the equity market saw a -1.1% outflow ratio[14] Sector Performance - In the US, there was a marked outflow from the technology sector, while industrials, telecommunications, and infrastructure saw inflows[41] - The inflow into US corporate bonds reached $39.4 billion in May, reversing the previous month's outflow of $23.2 billion[27] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected economic downturns in the US, escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, and higher-than-expected tariffs from the Trump administration[36]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 6 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 观望 | 地缘政治和贸易政策均升温，金 | | | | | | 偏弱 | | 价冲高回落，上方阻力较大 | | 镍 | 2507 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 上游强势，下游弱势，镍触底回升 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨夜美 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The US ADP and ISM non - manufacturing data were worse than expected, leading to a weaker US dollar index and an overall increase in global risk appetite. China's May PMI data improved, and the economy continued to expand, boosting domestic risk appetite. Short - term, the stock index may fluctuate, and it's advisable to be cautious and go long; the treasury bond may oscillate at a high level, and it's better to observe carefully. For commodities, black may rebound from a low level, and it's advisable to observe carefully; non - ferrous metals may oscillate and rebound, and it's advisable to be cautious and go long; energy and chemicals may oscillate and rebound, and it's advisable to observe carefully; precious metals may be strong at a high level, and it's advisable to be cautious and go long [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: US May ADP employment was 37,000, far lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous 62,000. The May ISM non - manufacturing index dropped to 49.9, shrinking for the first time in nearly a year. The US dollar index weakened due to these factors and the president's call for a rate cut, and global risk appetite increased. Domestic: China's May PMI data improved, the economy expanded, and short - term domestic risk appetite was boosted. Although the US tightened restrictions on China's semiconductor and aircraft engine sectors, the expected call between Chinese and US leaders this week also lifted domestic risk appetite [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as beauty care, clothing and home textiles, and metal new materials, the domestic stock market continued to rise slightly. China's May PMI data improvement and the expected call between Chinese and US leaders boosted domestic risk appetite. The market focused on US trade policies and negotiations. Short - term, it's advisable to be cautious and go long [3]. Precious Metals - Supported by a weaker US dollar and weak US data, precious metals rose slightly on Wednesday. COMEX gold August contract reached $3397 per ounce. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9, the lowest since June 2024. ADP data showed the fewest private - sector job increases in over two years. The labor market showed signs of cooling. Precious metals are expected to be strong in the short - term and have a solid long - term upward trend. It's advisable to focus on the employment report on Friday [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets rebounded on Wednesday. The rebound of coking coal and coke prices improved market sentiment. The actual demand was okay, with inventory decreasing but apparent consumption slightly falling. The supply side saw a slight increase in hot - rolled coil production and a slight decrease in building materials production. Steel may oscillate in the short - term [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot and futures prices rebounded slightly on Wednesday. The iron - making molten iron output declined for three consecutive weeks, but the high profitability of steel mills led to different views on the decline path. The global iron ore shipment and arrival volumes increased this week. The delay of FMG's iron bridge project should be noted. Iron ore may oscillate in the short - term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat on Wednesday. The demand for ferroalloys decreased slightly. The production of silicon manganese increased slightly. The prices of raw materials were weak, and the market transaction was average. Silicon iron and silicon manganese may oscillate in the short - term [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Saudi Arabia intends to increase production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August or September, and the improvement of the Canadian wildfire situation led to a slight decline in oil prices [7]. - **Asphalt**: With the decline of oil prices, asphalt oscillated narrowly. Demand recovered to a limited extent. The basis of major consumption areas decreased, and the inventory destocking stagnated. Asphalt will follow crude oil to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [7]. - **PX**: The PX price remained high, and PXN was around 270. Short - term maintenance was relatively high, and with the support of crude oil, PX will oscillate strongly. However, the reduction of PTA long - term contracts and the lack of gasoline - blending demand may lead to a slight decline in PX demand later [7]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis remained at +200, and the 9 - 1 structure was around 140. The downstream was in a cash - flow deficit, with weak new orders. PTA may oscillate weakly later [8][9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by the rebound of black metals, ethylene glycol recovered. Although there is some support at 4300, the supply recovery of synthetic - gas - made ethylene glycol is certain, and the probability of a sharp rise is low. It may form a bottom, and short - term trading can be observed [9]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber oscillated weakly. Terminal orders recovered slowly, and the downstream may reduce production. Short - fiber may continue to oscillate in the short - term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The possible call between Chinese and US leaders boosted market sentiment. The copper ore supply was relatively tight, while the production of electrolytic copper was high. The demand may decline as the peak season ended. Copper may oscillate in the short - term [10]. - **Aluminum**: Affected by the overall commodity market, aluminum prices rose. There is no clear market logic currently, and aluminum may oscillate in the short - term. Later, attention should be paid to the change in social inventory and the high - tariff risk [10]. - **Tin**: Affected by the slow possible resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State, tin prices rose. The domestic tin ore supply was tight, and the demand was mixed. Tin may stabilize in the short - term, but the high - tariff risk may put pressure on prices [11]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Supported by a weaker US dollar, CBOT soybeans and grains may maintain a range - bound market. The US soybean sowing progress was 84%, and the weather was stable, lacking continuous weather premium [12]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of soybean and soybean meal in oil mills may continue to recover, and soybean meal lacks a stable upward driver. The supply of rapeseed meal is uncertain, and the port inventory may decline. The market's expectation of trade tension decreased. The premium of soybean and rapeseed meal may decline if the USDA report strengthens the expectation of a US soybean bumper harvest [12][13]. - **Palm Oil**: The BMD Malaysian palm oil futures fell 0.58%. Malaysia's production and inventory are expected to increase, and the external market is weak. Indonesia's 2024/2025 palm oil production is estimated to be 48.8 million tons, and Malaysia's is estimated to be 19 million tons [13]. - **Live Pigs**: After the holiday, the supply and demand of live pigs were both weak. Pig prices may continue to decline, but there may be a short - term price increase due to the narrowing of the basis [14]. - **Corn**: The northeast corn产区 had a strong intention to support prices, and the north - south port corn inventory may continue to decline. The substitution of wheat for corn in feed may not affect the overall trend. The corn futures market was inactive, and there is no upward impetus currently [14].

Overall Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Global trade tensions are escalating, leading to increased short - term volatility in global markets. The market has a mixed attitude towards the trade situation, with optimism about trade dialogues but also concerns about tariff hikes. In China, the May PMI data shows economic expansion, yet US trade restrictions pose a short - term dampening effect on domestic risk appetite [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks. For example, stocks are expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a cautious approach to long - positions; bonds are at a high level and should be observed carefully; various commodity sectors also have their own short - term trends and trading suggestions [2]. Summary by Categories Macro - Overseas: US "steel tariffs" and EU's potential counter - measures, along with intensified Russia - Ukraine conflict, have increased geopolitical risks and global risk aversion. However, the market remains optimistic about US trade dialogues, and the US dollar index is generally weak. - Domestic: China's May PMI data indicates economic expansion, but US restrictions in semiconductor and other fields, as well as tariff hikes, pose short - term pressure on domestic risk appetite. Asset suggestions include short - term cautious long - positions for stocks, high - level observation for bonds, and different trading stances for various commodity sectors [2]. Stocks - Affected by sectors such as controllable nuclear fusion, domestic stocks have declined slightly. The May PMI data is positive, but US trade restrictions and tariff hikes suppress domestic risk appetite. The market is focused on US trade policies and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long - positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Last week, precious metals showed a volatile pattern, with COMEX gold down 1.33% to $3313.1 per ounce and silver down 1.68%. Fed's cautious stance, Trump's tariff policies, and geopolitical risks have affected the market. In the short - term, precious metals are expected to be strong, and in the long - term, the upward logic remains solid. Attention should be paid to long - term layout opportunities after corrections [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Before the holiday, the spot market was stable, but the futures price declined. During the holiday, trade conflicts increased risk aversion. In the short - term, the steel market is expected to be weak as supply remains high while demand is affected by trade tensions [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Before the holiday, prices were weak. Although iron - water production has declined, the market is divided on its future path. Supply may increase in the second quarter, and the price is expected to be bearish in the short - term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Before the holiday, prices were flat. Demand is fair, but silicon manganese is in an industry - wide loss, and silicon iron has weak downstream procurement. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [7]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ production increase is in line with expectations, and geopolitical risks in Ukraine and Iran, along with Canadian wildfires, have pushed up oil prices [8]. - **Asphalt**: As oil prices rise, asphalt prices are expected to follow. Demand is currently average, and inventory depletion has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil [8]. - **PX**: The price is high, and it is expected to be strong in the short - term, but there is a risk of a slight decline later due to potential demand reduction [9]. - **PTA**: Downstream production has decreased, and supply is expected to increase, leading to a weakening structure in the future [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply has contracted, but downstream production cuts limit inventory depletion. The price will slightly increase [9]. - **Short - fiber**: It remains in a weak and volatile pattern, with concerns about downstream production and order release [9]. - **Methanol**: Import and port inventory are increasing, and prices are expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term [10]. - **PP**: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is in a seasonal low. The price is likely to move downward [10]. - **LLDPE**: The supply - demand situation is expected to worsen, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market expects a 50% tariff on copper, driving up prices. The copper ore supply is tight, but demand may decline in the short - term, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [11]. - **Aluminum**: The 50% tariff on aluminum has led to a slight increase in prices. Supply is high, and demand is expected to decline, but there is still an export rush effect. It is recommended to observe [12]. - **Tin**: High tariffs, potential supply increases from Myanmar, and seasonal demand decline pose pressure on prices, but it has stabilized after a significant drop [13]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean market is supported by a weak US dollar but faces challenges such as good planting conditions in the US, high Brazilian inventory, and slow sales due to trade tensions. It may maintain a weak range - bound trend [13]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Oil mills' inventory is expected to recover, and the lack of upward momentum in US soybeans affects soybean meal. Rapeseed meal has supply uncertainties. The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal may shrink [14]. - **Oils and Fats**: During the holiday, oils and fats were under pressure. The energy market is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term, and domestic oils may continue to decline after the holiday, with the soybean - palm oil spread likely to remain inverted [14]. - **Hogs**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the supply - demand situation is weak, and pig prices may continue to decline, but there may be a short - term correction in near - month contracts [15]. - **Corn**: New wheat listing may replace some corn demand, but in the long - run, corn is likely to rise, and it will maintain a range - bound trend [15].

5月29日，债市出现调整，银行间主要现券收益率上行1~2bp，国债期货全线下跌，但央行继续净投放 OMO，资金面保持均衡偏宽松状态。据央视新闻报道，美国国际贸易法院叫停美国总统特朗普的"解放 日"关税，并裁定特朗普越权，受此影响风险偏好大幅抬升，股强债弱。短期来看，月末资金面预计保 持偏宽松状态，美国关税缓和对风险偏好的提振预计仍会持续并压制债市，关注今日公告的5月央行买 断式逆回购和买卖国债情况以及即将公布的5月制造业PMI数据，债市预计维持震荡状态。 经过本周的债市调整，收益率性价比已经较高，市场对于关税缓和的定价也较为充分，目前收益率处于 较好的配置区间，后续有望逐步下行。 今日恰逢端午假期前最后一个交易日，场内往往交易活跃，可关注场内折溢价机会和假日票息收益。 政金债券ETF（511520）昨日净流入超5亿元，总规模超478亿元，为全市场规模最大的债券ETF，同时 也是全市场唯一一只长久期政金债ETF，久期7.5年左右，流动性好，适合客户场内一键加久期，可作 为债券市场波段交易和配置的好工具。 相关产品：政金债券ETF（511520）、富国中债7-10年政策性金融债ETF联接（A类：018266；C类 ...