Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of risk appetite among investors, emphasizing its impact on asset allocation, investment strategies, and market price fluctuations in a complex economic environment. It highlights the importance of measuring risk appetite to make informed investment decisions, especially in light of uncertainties in economic growth and market volatility [2]. Group 1: Risk Appetite Measurement Methods - **Volatility Indicators**: Volatility is a direct reflection of market risk, with the VIX index serving as a contrarian indicator of market fear. High volatility indicates low risk appetite, while low volatility suggests a higher willingness to take risks. The implied volatility of the CSI 1000 index is currently low, indicating that investors do not foresee significant systemic risks in the near future [2]. - **Liquidity of Funds**: Fund liquidity is another key indicator of market risk appetite. A shift of funds from high-risk to low-risk assets, or vice versa, reflects changes in risk appetite. The financing balance in the A-share market, which represents investors' willingness to use leverage for stock purchases, has recently reached historical highs, although its growth rate has begun to slow [4][5]. - **Policy Expectations**: Market expectations regarding future government support measures, including fiscal and monetary policies, significantly influence risk appetite. For instance, after a significant market drop due to tariff escalations, government interventions helped stabilize the market, leading to a recovery [6]. Group 2: Market Trends and Implications - The article notes that by analyzing the driving factors of risk appetite, investors can assess whether asset prices are in a bullish or bearish environment. If asset prices show strong annualized returns but experience short-term volatility, and the factors driving the market are improving, it is advisable for investors to start positioning themselves [6]. - Conversely, if the risk appetite factors remain unchanged, it is recommended for investors to maintain their current asset allocations or strategies [6].

美联储理事Lisa Cook关于私人信贷领域"潜在的资产估值脆弱性"的警告，像一颗投入平静湖面的石子，激起层层涟漪。隔夜信贷市场迅速恶化，投资级债券 和高收益债券的利差急剧扩大。这个规模达1.7万亿美元的市场一旦出现问题，其与金融体系的复杂关联可能引发连锁反应，这让习惯了廉价资金的华尔街 如坐针毡。 当英伟达的财报烟花变成市场丧钟，当比特币跌破9万美元的心理防线，华尔街正在经历一场由九个致命音符组成的黑色交响乐。高盛最新报告揭示了这场 史诗级暴跌背后的复杂机理，每一个因素都像精确制导的导弹，击穿了投资者的心理防线。 百度图片 科技信仰的崩塌：英伟达成为压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草 英伟达财报本该是市场的强心针，却意外成为压垮风险偏好的最后一根稻草。这家AI芯片巨头交出了超预期的成绩单，股价却高开低走最终收跌3%。高盛 顶级交易员John Flood的评论一针见血："真正的好消息没有得到回报，通常是一个坏兆头"。市场开始质疑，当最耀眼的明星都失去光芒，还有什么能支撑 科技股的天价估值？ image 百度图片 信贷市场的定时炸弹：美联储官员的警告成真 流动性荒漠：市场失去缓冲垫 高盛数据显示，标普500指数顶级买卖盘的 ...

今日Ultima Markets为您带来了 2025年11月20日的黄金深入分析 ·黄金在周四早盘重新尝试突破4100美元，期待美国就业数据的推动。 ·美元接近十天高位，风险偏好情绪抵消鹰派美联储会议纪要的影响。 ·黄金周三收盘于4075美元阻力位之上；相对强弱指数保持看涨。接下来会如何？ 黄金在周四早盘再次尝试突破4100美元，因美元（USD）在风险偏好的市场环境中暂停上涨，同时等待当天稍晚公布的至关重要的九月份非农就业数据 （NFP）报告。 然而，在芯片制造商英伟达（Nvidia）在市场收盘后发布的乐观业绩提供了极大缓解，并引发了全面的风险偏好反弹后，局势似乎再次转向黄金买家有 利。 市场的乐观情绪延续到亚洲交易时段，限制了美元的持续上涨，同时恢复了黄金向4100美元门槛的回升动能。 黄金的下一步上涨取决于美国就业数据的发布，这可能会改变市场对美联储下个月是否降息的预期。 预计非农就业数据将显示，美国经济在九月份新增5万个就业岗位，而八月份的新增就业岗位为2.2万个。失业率预计在同一时期保持在4.3%。与此同时， 预计九月份的平均时薪年增幅为3.7%，与八月份的增幅相同。 任何与预期的显著偏差都可能影响美 ...

Group 1 - The recent volatility in the gold market is primarily driven by a combination of monetary policy expectations and market sentiment [1][4] - The World Gold Council's CEO for China highlighted three main challenges in gold investment: understanding the market, timing the investment, and holding onto the asset [2] - The decline in gold prices is seen as both a risk release and an opportunity, emphasizing that gold serves as a safety net rather than a quick profit generator [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more hawkish stance has led to a stronger dollar, putting downward pressure on gold prices as it is a non-yielding asset [4] - A recovery in global risk appetite, due to easing geopolitical tensions, has resulted in funds moving away from gold to riskier assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies [4] - Technical selling pressure has emerged as many investors sought to lock in profits after a period of rising gold prices, contributing to the recent price drop [4] Group 3 - Since November, international gold prices have dropped over 5%, while domestic gold jewelry prices have decreased by approximately 20-30 yuan per gram, yet remain about 15% higher than at the beginning of the year [4] - Investors face difficulties in understanding the multitude of factors influencing gold prices, leading to impulsive buying and selling behaviors [4] - The average gold price increase over the past three years has been over 20%, but more than 60% of investors exited early, missing out on further gains [4] Group 4 - Different strategies are recommended for various types of investors: immediate buyers should consider current prices for planned purchases, long-term holders should adopt a dollar-cost averaging approach, and short-term speculators should be cautious due to market volatility [2][4] - It is crucial for all investors to choose reputable channels for purchasing gold and to be aware of buyback policies to ensure liquidity [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent government shutdown in the U.S. was expected to boost the cryptocurrency market, but Bitcoin and the overall crypto market have failed to recover, with Bitcoin dropping below $100,000 and nearing $90,000, erasing all gains made in 2025 [2] Market Performance - Bitcoin reached a historical high of $126,000 on October 6, 2025, but has since fallen over 28%, currently trading around $90,000 [2] - The recent decline is characterized by a "death cross" pattern, with Bitcoin breaking below the critical 50-week moving average, historically indicating the end of bull markets [2] Macro Environment - Investor expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have diminished, with only a 48.6% probability remaining for a 25 basis point cut [3] - The macroeconomic environment has worsened, leading to significant sell-offs and concentrated liquidations of leveraged positions, exacerbating the downward trend [3] Market Sentiment - The current market conditions are attributed to a combination of short-term liquidity issues, persistent selling pressure, and weak investor sentiment rather than a single triggering factor [4] - Despite easing tensions in U.S.-China relations, Bitcoin struggles to find support, with liquidity remaining thin since the market crash on October 10 [4] Institutional Involvement - Unlike previous bear markets, Bitcoin has seen increased institutional participation, with major financial institutions accepting Bitcoin as collateral, indicating a maturation of the asset class [5] - Recent data shows that most investors selling Bitcoin are still in profit, suggesting a lack of panic selling or large-scale margin calls [5] Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend that retail investors avoid trying to time the market and instead adopt a dollar-cost averaging approach for long-term investments [6] - Long-term investors should focus on macro signals rather than solely technical trends, as Bitcoin's potential for recovery is tied to global liquidity conditions [6]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin experienced a weak rebound after hitting a six-and-a-half-month low, reflecting ongoing weak risk appetite in the market [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Concerns over valuations and a cooling expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month led to a sell-off in technology stocks, negatively impacting risk appetite [1] - Investors are currently focused on the delayed September U.S. non-farm payroll report set to be released on Thursday [1] Group 2: Bitcoin Performance - According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group, Bitcoin rose by 2.4% to $95,717 after previously touching a low of $92,988 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Fed officials' hawkish remarks cooled market risk appetite, causing significant drops in gold and silver prices. Gold prices retreated, erasing last week's gains, and the premium of Shanghai gold converged to -2 yuan/gram. Silver premium widened to 340 yuan/gram, and the sentiment for Shanghai silver remained strong. With the U.S. government reopening, waiting for data verification, gold prices will continue to fluctuate at high levels, and silver prices will oscillate [4][5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: Fed officials' hawkish remarks cooled risk appetite, leading to a significant drop in gold prices. U.S. stock indexes showed mixed performance, European stock indexes declined across the board, U.S. bond yields rose, the dollar index increased, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 2.62% to $4084.4 per ounce. The basis was -2.4, indicating a spot discount to futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 810 kilograms to 90426 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the long position decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, Fed officials' hawkish remarks led to a significant drop in silver prices. COMEX silver futures fell 5.21% to $50.4 per ounce. The basis was +9, indicating a spot premium to futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 7120 kilograms to 576894 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the long position increased [5][6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The support for gold prices has weakened significantly as the concerns about the Fed's interest rate cut and China - U.S. tariff escalation have improved. However, due to the global turmoil after Trump's inauguration, the inflation expectation has shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to decline [10]. - **Silver**: Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. The concerns about tariffs have a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase. The factors affecting silver prices are similar to those of gold, with both positive and negative factors coexisting [14]. 3. Today's Focus - 07:50: Japan's preliminary quarterly GDP growth rate in Q3; Time TBD: The sixth "Diversity, Equality, and Inclusion in the Fields of Economy, Finance, and Central Banking" conference jointly hosted by the European Central Bank, Bank of France, Bank of Spain, Bank of Italy, Bank of Canada, and Bank of England; Time TBD: The 2025 China International Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Conference from November 17 - 20; 16:15: Speech by the vice - president of the European Central Bank, de Guindos; 21:30: U.S. November New York Fed Manufacturing Index; 22:00: Welcome speech by FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams at the 2025 Governance and Culture Reform Conference; 22:30: Speech by Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson; 22:45: Speech by the chief economist of the European Central Bank, Lane; 23:00: U.S. August construction spending; Next day 02:00: Fireside chat hosted by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari; Next day 04:35: Speech by Fed Governor Waller [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis was -2.4, indicating a spot discount to futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 810 kilograms to 90426 kilograms [4]. - **Silver**: The basis was +9, indicating a spot premium to futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 7120 kilograms to 576894 kilograms [6]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position was long, but the long position decreased. The net long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai gold increased by 3308 to 105420. SPDR Gold ETF holdings fluctuated and decreased [4][32]. - **Silver**: The main net position was long, and the long position increased. The net long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai silver increased by 8879 to 112852. Silver ETF holdings increased slightly and were still higher than the same period in the past two years. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease and were at the lowest level in the past six years, while COMEX silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly [6][34][43].

Core Insights - The end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history has shifted market sentiment, reducing risk aversion and warming up risk assets, but volatility may still be on the horizon [1] Economic Data Release - Key economic data that was delayed due to the shutdown will be released next week, including Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), CPI and PPI inflation data, retail sales, new housing starts and building permits, and consumer confidence index [2][6] Market Dynamics - The market has been operating on expectations during the shutdown, with the Federal Reserve unable to access the latest data. The release of this data may lead to a market re-evaluation [3] - The Federal Reserve has signaled a hawkish stance, reducing the market's expectation for a rate cut in December from approximately 72% to 50% [3] - The end of the shutdown has led to a short-term increase in risk appetite, with U.S. stock futures rebounding and the dollar stabilizing, although this rebound may not indicate a trend reversal [3] Potential Market Movements - The bond market may undergo re-pricing due to delayed fiscal spending, which could increase debt risks and put upward pressure on yields. Rising yields may first impact high-leverage assets like gold and tech stocks [3] - U.S. stocks may experience a "divergent market" where sector rotation occurs rather than a broad market rally, with tech stocks sensitive to yield changes and financial stocks reacting significantly to the interest rate cycle [4] Gold Market Outlook - Gold is at a critical juncture, with its price currently in a weak but unbroken range. The upcoming week will be pivotal for gold's direction, influenced by delayed data, the Federal Reserve's stance, bond yield trends, and the re-pricing of risk assets [5][8] - If economic data is weak, rate cut expectations may rise, potentially boosting gold prices and tech stocks. Conversely, strong data may lead to a higher likelihood of the Fed maintaining its stance, resulting in rising bond yields and pressure on both U.S. stocks and gold [7]

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, with Bitcoin falling below the $94,000 mark, currently priced at $95,423.1 per coin, and reaching a low of $93,955 within 24 hours [1] - Ethereum is reported at $3,168 per coin, with a 24-hour decline of 2.11%, while SOL is at $142, down 2.27%. Other cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin and BNB are also witnessing declines [3] Liquidation Data - Over the past 24 hours, more than 225,000 traders have been liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $1.066 billion. Long positions accounted for $890 million, while short positions totaled $170 million [5] - Detailed liquidation statistics show that in the last 24 hours, long liquidations reached $890 million and short liquidations were $170 million [6] Market Sentiment and Predictions - Market analysts suggest that funds may be retreating from the cryptocurrency market, indicating a potential period of vulnerability. Major investment funds and corporate treasury departments have withdrawn from Bitcoin, which has been a key support for this year's rebound [7] - The cryptocurrency fear and greed index has dropped to 10, the lowest level since February 27, indicating a state of "extreme fear" in the market [7] - Predictions from Polymarket indicate a 70% probability of Bitcoin falling below $90,000 by year-end, with a 26% chance of dropping below $80,000, and a 22% chance of exceeding $120,000 [7] Market Dynamics - The performance of the Bitcoin market is heavily influenced by the profitability of new entrants, who represent new capital and liquidity. If these investors realize profits, market confidence can be sustained, leading to a dynamic upward trend. However, panic selling may occur if short-term holders face losses of 20% to 40% [8] - Current market conditions are not yet indicative of a typical bear market signal, and if new entrants can achieve some profits, market support may gradually form, suggesting that the current pullback could be a mid-cycle correction rather than the onset of a bear market [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, after the end of the longest government shutdown in US history, the market shifted its focus to key US economic data. Concerns about inflation and differences among Fed policymakers regarding the health of the US economy led to a reduced expectation of interest rate cuts. Additionally, several Fed officials adopted a hawkish stance before the release of major economic data, causing an increase in US Treasury yields and a significant decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's manufacturing prosperity level declined in October, and exports unexpectedly decreased, leading to a slowdown in economic growth and dampening optimistic expectations to some extent. However, China's inflation data in October unexpectedly recovered and rebounded, with the supply - side continuing to exert efforts. Policy - wise, the central bank restarted Treasury bond trading operations to release liquidity into the market, and the domestic monetary policy was intensified, along with abundant liquidity, which boosted domestic risk appetite. The recent market trading logic mainly focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and the quality of economic growth. The short - term macro upward driving force has increased, and the stock index is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. [3] - In terms of assets, the stock index is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, and it is advisable to cautiously go long in the short term. Treasury bonds are expected to rebound with short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to cautiously go long. Among commodity sectors, the black sector is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to cautiously observe; the non - ferrous sector is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to cautiously go long; the energy and chemical sector is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to cautiously observe; precious metals are expected to rebound with short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to cautiously go long. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: After the end of the government shutdown, the market focused on key economic data. Inflation concerns and differences among Fed officials reduced the expectation of interest rate cuts. Fed officials' hawkish remarks before major data releases led to an increase in US Treasury yields and a decline in global risk appetite. [3] - Domestic: In October, China's manufacturing prosperity declined, and exports unexpectedly decreased, slowing economic growth. However, inflation data unexpectedly recovered, and the supply - side continued to work. The central bank restarted Treasury bond trading to release liquidity, and the monetary policy was intensified, boosting domestic risk appetite. The market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental policies and economic growth. The short - term macro upward driving force has increased, and the stock index is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. [3] Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as energy metals, batteries, and industrial metals, the domestic stock market rose significantly. Fundamentally, China's manufacturing prosperity declined in October, and exports unexpectedly decreased, slowing economic growth and dampening optimism. However, inflation data unexpectedly recovered, and the supply - side continued to work. Policy - wise, the central bank's actions boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro upward driving force has increased, and the stock index is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. It is advisable to cautiously go long in the short term. [3][4] Precious Metals - On Thursday night, the precious metals market rose overall. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 956.96 yuan/gram, up 0.11%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 12405 yuan/kilogram, up 0.40%. Due to the sell - off in the market after the US government reopened and several Fed officials' hawkish remarks, precious metals were under some pressure in the short term. Spot gold fell 0.65% to $4171.1 per ounce. Precious metals are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is advisable to cautiously go long in the short term and buy on dips in the medium - to - long term. [4] Black Metals - **Steel**: On Thursday, the domestic steel spot market rebounded slightly, while the futures price continued to be weak. The stock market's rise boosted market sentiment. Fundamentally, real - world demand continued to weaken, but the decline in this week's data slowed down. The apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by about 6300 tons week - on - week. On the supply side, due to steel mill losses, steel production capacity was further restricted, and the output of five major steel products decreased by 22360 tons week - on - week. In the short term, the steel market will continue to fluctuate within a range, and the room for further decline below 3000 points for rebar is limited. [7] - **Iron Ore**: On Thursday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore continued to fluctuate. Steel mill losses continued, and iron - water production is expected to decline further. However, with the improvement of market sentiment, the market has started to bet on the bottom of iron - water production. On the supply side, this week's iron ore shipments decreased by 144800 tons week - on - week, and arrivals decreased by 477200 tons week - on - week. However, port inventories increased by 195000 tons on Monday, indicating an oversupply of ore. Although the Simandou iron ore mine has been put into production, it will take time to have a substantial impact on the domestic market. Currently, the key factors determining the iron ore price are the process of the decline in iron - water production and when the bottom will appear. It is advisable to view iron ore with a range - bound trading idea in the short term. [7] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat. The futures price of silicon iron rebounded slightly, while that of silicon manganese weakened. The output of five major steel products decreased slightly, leading to a decline in ferroalloy demand. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 5570 - 5620 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5580 - 5630 yuan/ton. Hebei Iron and Steel Group's first inquiry price for silicon manganese in November is 5750 yuan/ton, and other steel mills are following suit. The spot price of manganese ore is firm. The mainstream price of semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port is 34.5 yuan/ton - degree, the price of South African high - iron manganese ore is 29.8 - 30 yuan/ton - degree, the price of Gabonese manganese ore is 40.5 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of Australian lump ore is in the range of 39.5 - 41 yuan/ton - degree, with slow - growing transactions. The supply of silicon manganese decreased slightly. The operating rate (capacity utilization) of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises in the country is 40.24%, a decrease of 2.75% from last week; the daily output is 28840 tons, a decrease of 835 tons. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron is 5700 yuan/ton. The price of raw material semi - coke is stable. The price of medium - sized semi - coke in Shenmu market is 850 - 920 yuan/ton, the price of small - sized semi - coke is 800 - 850 yuan/ton, and the price of coke powder is 530 - 630 yuan/ton. The supply of silicon iron increased slightly. The operating rate (capacity utilization) of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises in the country is 36.26%, a 0.18% increase from last week; the daily output is 16300 tons, a 0.80% increase (130 tons) from last week. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. [8] Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: The US copper inventory continued to rise, approaching 380000 short tons, a historical high, which restricts future import demand. There is a possibility of the Panama copper mine restarting. In China, the destocking of refined copper was less than expected. As of November 13, the social copper inventory was 201100 tons, a 5200 - ton increase from the previous period, still at a relatively high level and the highest in three years. The shutdown of Indonesia's second - largest copper mine has intensified the global copper mine shortage, which will support the futures price. It is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term. [9] - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, Shanghai aluminum continued to rise, reaching a three - and - a - half - year high, boosted by the optimistic sentiment after the end of the US government shutdown. Technically, all time frames are in an overbought state, and the hourly chart shows a long upper shadow line, indicating a possible short - term hourly - level correction, while the daily - level trend is unclear. Fundamentally, there is no change, and inventory destocking is still not going well. Although the 620000 - ton inventory is not high, it is not low either. In addition, the arrival of goods at Port Klang led to an increase of 9125 tons in LME aluminum inventory. The market is still worried about future supply, with a tight supply expectation. The market is trading based on expectations and temporarily ignoring the fundamentals. However, as the off - season approaches, the market will eventually return to reality. Aluminum prices are expected to be strong and volatile in the short term, but if the expectations are revised later and combined with real - world pressure, aluminum prices will face a significant correction. [10] - **Tin**: On Thursday, the tin price reached a three - and - a - half - year high, driven by macro sentiment and supply concerns. On the supply side, the maintenance of a large - scale smelting enterprise in Yunnan has ended, and the combined operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi has slightly increased to 69.13%. The actual shortage of tin ore in the mine end continues. Although the mining licenses in Wa State, Myanmar, have been issued, due to the local rainy season and the slow actual resumption of production, the tin ore export volume is still far below the normal level and cannot effectively make up for the current supply gap. On the demand side, the peak season is not prosperous. The operating rate of tin solder in October decreased slightly and remained at a low level. Traditional industries such as consumer electronics and home appliances have weak demand and insufficient orders. The pre - installation in the photovoltaic sector in the early stage has overdrawn the later - stage installation demand, and the photovoltaic installation has almost halved since June. After the continuous decline, the social inventory of tin ingots has increased by 349 tons to 7033 tons, mainly due to the combined effect of the increase in supply from the resumption of maintenance and the relatively weak downstream demand. The tin price is at a historical high, and the inhibitory effect of high prices on physical demand has begun to appear. The spot market's acceptance of the current price level is limited, and it is mainly for just - in - time replenishment. In summary, the tin price has support in the medium - to - short term, but the inhibitory effect of high prices on consumption limits the upward space. It is expected to remain volatile at a high level, and risks should be noted. [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Thursday, the main contract of lithium carbonate 2601 rose 1.39%, with the latest settlement price at 88360 yuan/ton. The weighted contract added 33853 lots, and the total open interest was 1.0373 million lots. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate quoted by Steel Union is 87750 yuan/ton (a 1700 - yuan increase from the previous period). The latest CIF price of Australian spodumene is 1050 US dollars/ton (a 30 - dollar increase from the previous period). The production profit of purchasing spodumene is - 907 yuan/ton. On November 6, the evaluation report of the mining right transfer income of Jianxiawo was publicly announced, which may be regarded as the active promotion of the resumption of production in Jianxiawo. The market quickly digested the negative news, and the demand logic still prevails. It is expected to be strong and volatile, but attention should be paid to the repeated disturbances on the supply side and hedging pressure. [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday, the main contract of industrial silicon 2601 fell 0.22%, with the latest settlement price at 9180 yuan/ton. The weighted contract's open interest was 267800 lots, adding 41.84 lots. The price of oxygen - containing 553 industrial silicon in East China is 9500 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the futures price is at a discount of 355 yuan/ton. After the end of the wet season, the production of industrial silicon in Southwest China has significantly decreased. The demand is relatively stable, and the overall situation is one of weak supply and demand. Attention should be paid to whether effective destocking can be achieved during the dry season. It is expected that the market will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises, and it is advisable to operate within the range and buy on dips. [12] - **Polysilicon**: On Thursday, the main contract of polysilicon 2601 rose 3.69%, with the latest settlement price at 53940 yuan/ton. The weighted contract's open interest was 144000 lots, adding 2397 lots. The latest price of N - type re -投料 is 51500 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period). The price of N - type silicon wafers is 1.3 yuan/piece (a 0.1 - yuan increase from the previous period), the price of single - crystal Topcon battery cells (M10) is 0.305 yuan/watt (unchanged from the previous period), and the price of N - type components (centralized): 182mm is 0.67 yuan/watt (unchanged from the previous period). The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 9130 lots (a 720 - lot decrease from the previous period). There is a stalemate between strong policy expectations and weak reality. There is still support for the spot price of polysilicon under policy expectations, but weak terminal demand makes it difficult for downstream prices to rise. The recent rumor of polysilicon stockpiling has caused disturbances. It is expected that polysilicon will be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to buy on dips. [13][14] Energy and Chemical - **Methanol**: The inland methanol market remained stable, and the basis of the port methanol market remained stable and slightly weak. The spot negotiation price is 2065 - 2070 yuan/ton, with a basis of about 01 - 40/ - 35; the negotiation price for November delivery is 2085 - 2087 yuan/ton, with a basis of about 01 - 20/ - 18; the negotiation price for December delivery is 2115 - 2118 yuan/ton, with a basis of about 01 + 10/+13. As of November 12, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1.5436 million tons, a 56500 - ton increase from the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 64900 tons, while the inventory in South China decreased by 8400 tons. The production enterprise inventory was 369300 tons, a 17200 - ton decrease from the previous period, a 4.44% decline. Both the inland and port areas have seen inventory increases. The deterioration of the inland supply - demand situation has made the price lose support and continue to decline. Downstream demand has weakened, and inland plants are restarting. The fundamental pressure is still large, with a downward driving force. However, the firm and rising coal price is squeezing methanol profits, and the price is approaching the import cost. Iranian plants are planned to shut down in mid - November, which provides some support in terms of expectations. The real - world situation still needs substantial improvement. It is expected that the price will continue to decline with fluctuations in the near future, but the decline rate may slow down, and the decline space is limited. [15] - **PP**: The offer price is mainly in a weak and volatile state. The mainstream price of East China drawstring PP is 6330 - 6580 yuan/ton. According to Longzhong Information on November 13, the polyolefin inventory of the two major state - owned petrochemical companies is 665000 tons, a 25000 - ton decrease from the previous day. As of November 12, 2025, the sample inventory of polypropylene ports increased by 2300 tons from the previous period, a 3.56% increase, and the inventory has increased compared with last week. The inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased by 15100 tons from the previous period (November 5, 2025), a 6.61% decrease. Currently, although the demand for polypropylene has improved, the supply growth rate is too fast, leading to an increase in inventory. As the traditional off - season approaches, demand is expected to gradually weaken, while the supply will remain at a high level due to plant restarts. The market fundamentals are under pressure. Coupled with the weak and volatile crude oil price, the cost support is insufficient. It is expected that the polypropylene price will continue to decline. [16]