Group 1: Macro Insights - The Federal Reserve has resumed interest rate cuts, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25% from 4.25%-4.5%, marking a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [4][5] - The Fed's dot plot indicates a downward revision in rate expectations, predicting two more rate cuts in 2025, with the median expected federal funds rate falling to 3.6% [4][6] - The Fed's internal divisions are evident, with varying opinions on the extent of rate cuts, reflecting differing views on economic conditions [5][6] Group 2: Company Overview - Qingmu Technology - Qingmu Technology is positioned as a leading e-commerce service provider, offering comprehensive services including operational management, brand incubation, and digital marketing [8][9] - The company has evolved from a footwear e-commerce operator to a diversified e-commerce service enterprise, with a significant focus on brand incubation and operational management [9][10] - The revenue composition for H1 2025 includes e-commerce operations (45%), brand incubation management (35%), and distribution agency (14%) [9][10] Group 3: Business Growth and Strategy - The e-commerce operational management segment has shown steady growth, particularly in the apparel sector, while also expanding into the trendy toy market, contributing to new revenue streams [10][12] - Qingmu Technology has successfully partnered with brands like Pop Mart and Jellycat, which have shown significant revenue growth, enhancing the company's market position [12][13] - The brand incubation segment is rapidly growing, focusing on health consumer products and pet food, with successful entries of brands like Cumlaude Lab and Zuccari into the Chinese market [13][14] Group 4: Industry Insights - Automotive Sector - The automotive industry has seen a 12.9% year-on-year increase in passenger car wholesale sales in H1 2025, driven by policies like trade-in programs and subsidies [17][18] - Despite revenue growth, profit margins are under pressure due to intensified competition, with the automotive sector's net profit declining by 1.8% year-on-year in H1 2025 [17][18] - The truck segment is experiencing a recovery in sales and profitability, with a slight improvement in gross margins, indicating a potential upward trend in market conditions [19][20] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the automotive sector, driven by trade-in policies and a shift towards high-end and smart vehicle offerings [21][22] - Recommended companies include those positioned for high-end market growth and those benefiting from advancements in smart driving technologies [21][22] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong operational cycles and those that are well-positioned in the supply chain for future growth [21][22]

美联储为何选择在这一时刻重启降息？东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪对上海证券报记者表示，这 一决策同时反映了美国就业市场下行的压力，以及对政治干预与通胀风险的权衡。会议释放的信号清晰 表明，就业已取代通胀成为当前政策的首要关注点。 选择下调25个基点而非50个基点，也显现出美联储正试图平衡其双重使命：一方面须防范美国就业市场 疲软的风险；另一方面警惕过早降息重新点燃通胀。 "当前美国就业市场出现明显的恶化信号，美联储9月降息存在必要性，降息25个基点符合预期。"中信 证券首席经济学家明明对上海证券报记者表示，美国新增非农就业人数3个月均值仍在3万人左右，处于 历史低位，并且8月失业率走高、职位空缺数下降也显示就业市场的走弱态势。 从经济预测来看，美联储对美国经济前景的预期有所改善，但通胀仍面临上行风险。美联储将今年和明 年美国GDP增速预测均上调了0.2个百分点，分别为1.6%和1.8%，同时上调通胀预期，并将通胀达标时 间推迟至2028年。"这表明美联储准备在短期内容忍适度通胀，以换取就业市场的稳定。"白雪说。 ◎记者 黄冰玉 陈佳怡 时隔9个月，美联储再度降息——北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储在议息会议上 ...

北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）公布最新货币政策会议纪要，决定将联邦基 金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至4%—4.25%之间。这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次 降息后的再次降息。 据悉，此次政策调整的背后，是美联储平衡通胀与就业的现实考量。近期指标显示，美国上半年经济活 动增长放缓，就业增长放缓。经济前景的不确定性依然存在，就业下行风险上升。尽管美国通胀率有所 上升，并维持在略高水平，但近几个月新增就业远低于预期让美联储终于采取降息措施。 今年首次降息 一如市场预期，美联储降息25基点。当地时间9月17日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调到4% —4.25%之间的水平。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，当前劳动力市场活力不足且略显疲软，降息旨在提振劳 动力市场。 这是美联储今年以来的首次降息。9个月时间，也是一场关于通胀预期与经济数据的博弈。2025年上半 年，美联储历次议息会议将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%—4.5%之间不变，多名官员强调"在降 息之前，需要看到通胀进一步下降的证据"。到6月，美联储内部意见分歧明显，联邦公开市场委员会会 议纪要显示，19名官员中只 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points marks the beginning of a new preventive rate-cutting cycle, with expectations for further cuts in October and December [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - Over 15 brokerage firms have released reports interpreting the Fed's rate cut, with "in line with expectations" being the dominant sentiment [1]. - Most brokerages anticipate an additional 50 basis points of cuts within the year, but long-term cuts may be less than previously expected [1][4]. - The consensus among analysts is that the U.S. economy may achieve a soft landing, although some warn that excessive easing could lead to stagflation risks [1][11]. Group 2: Individual Brokerage Insights - **CITIC Securities**: Predicts further cuts in October and December, but the path for rates next year remains unclear [3]. - **China Merchants Securities**: Indicates that the Fed's dot plot suggests a lower rate cut than market expectations, with potential volatility in risk assets [6]. - **Guotai Junan Securities**: Believes the new rate-cutting cycle will support market liquidity and stock performance, despite a slower long-term pace [8][10]. Group 3: Economic Implications - **Zhejiang Merchants Securities**: Describes the rate cut as a "risk management" measure, indicating a hawkish tone and uncertainty about future cuts [4][13]. - **Huatai Securities**: Adjusts its forecast for rate cuts from two to three times this year, citing ongoing pressures in the job market [4][12]. - **CICC**: Warns that excessive monetary easing could exacerbate inflation and lead to a stagflation scenario [11]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - **CITIC Jian Investment**: Highlights that real estate and manufacturing sectors are likely to benefit first from the rate cuts [7]. - **Guangdong Development Securities**: Suggests that the Fed's actions may create more room for China's monetary policy adjustments [2][6]. - **Dongwu Securities**: Notes that the Fed's guidance indicates an additional rate cut next year, which may support market sentiment [2].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024 [2][3][9] - Following the announcement, the US dollar index fell by 0.13% to 96.48, while the New York stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 260.42 points (0.57%) and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices declining by 0.1% and 0.33% respectively [3][6] - The Fed's forecast indicates two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each within the year, which is an increase from previous predictions, along with an expectation of further cuts in the following two years [3][10] Group 2 - The rate cut is seen as a response to potential risks facing the US economy, with a significant slowdown in the job market being a key consideration, as evidenced by a mere 22,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in August and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years [9][10] - The Fed's approach is characterized as "risk management" rather than a reaction to an economic recession, aiming to prevent further deterioration in the job market and mitigate the risk of an economic "hard landing" [9][10] - The reduction in interest rates is expected to benefit Chinese assets by narrowing the interest rate differential between China and the US, providing more room for the People's Bank of China to implement monetary easing [11][13] Group 3 - Historical trends suggest that a Fed rate cut typically leads to excess returns in domestic equity markets, while bond prices tend to rise and yields fall during such cycles [11] - The impact of the Fed's actions on commodities is mixed; while gold may experience volatility post-rate cut, the overall liquidity environment is expected to become more accommodative globally [11][13] - Investment strategies may need to adapt to the changing landscape, with a focus on RMB-related assets as the depreciation of the dollar could lead to appreciation of the yuan [13]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut in 2025 after maintaining rates steady for six consecutive meetings [1] Group 1: Rate Decision - The rate decision was passed with a vote of 11 in favor and 1 against, with Stephen Miran opposing the decision, advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points [1] - The adjustment in the assessment of the labor market was identified as a key reason for the rate cut, with recent employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The updated "dot plot" indicates that policymakers expect two more rate cuts by the end of 2025, with predictions of 25 basis point cuts in October and December meetings [1] - The upper limit of the federal funds rate is projected to reach 3.75% following these anticipated cuts [1] Group 3: Powell's Stance - Despite the rate cut, Chairman Powell's statements leaned towards a "hawkish" tone, describing the cut as a "risk management" measure rather than signaling the start of a new rate-cutting cycle [2] - Future monetary policy decisions will be based on subsequent economic data and will not follow a predetermined path [2]

·高盛：五大信号确认美联储开启降息周期，预计今明两年持续宽松 ·瑞银：美联储降息伴随上调经济与通胀预期，政策逻辑现"不一致性" ·大华银行：美联储"风险管理式"降息启动，预计10月与12月再各降25基点 ·高盛表示，美联储已开启新一轮降息周期，五大信号确认宽松趋势，点阵图支持年内三次降息、声明 措辞鸽派、鲍威尔聚焦就业降温、定性为"风险管理式降息"（历史多为连续）、债券市场定价需政策兑 现。基准预期：10月、12月各降25基点，明年季度性降息至3.0-3.25%。 ·瑞银指出，美联储在鸽派降息的同时下调经济增长，上调通胀预期，政策逻辑呈现"不一致性"，凸显 决策复杂性。 ·Tickmill集团分析师表示，市场普遍预期英国央行将从10月起放缓量化紧缩（QT）步伐，未来12个月的 紧缩规模预计降至约750亿英镑。过去一年，英国央行以每年1000亿英镑的速度缩减其债券持有规模， 即实施量化紧缩。多数预测表明，英格兰银行将不会主动出售长期债券，以免引发市场波动。倘若央行 继续按照每年1000亿英镑的紧缩步伐推进，这将是最令市场感到意外。 ·美国银行指出，市场普遍预期英国央行今日将维持4.00%的银行利率不变。尽管美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing tension between the Federal Reserve and political pressures from Trump, highlighting Powell's ability to maintain the Fed's independence during the recent FOMC meeting [2][5][15]. Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The focus of the September FOMC meeting was not only on the rate cut magnitude but also on the dynamics within the committee, including new member Milan's rapid inclusion and legal issues faced by member Cook [3]. - Only member Milan supported a 50 basis point cut, while other members, including Waller and Bowman, aligned with the majority [3]. - The median forecast for rate cuts in 2025 was raised from 50 basis points to 75 basis points, with only 9 out of 19 members supporting this adjustment [3]. Group 2: Economic Projections - The FOMC members have become more optimistic about the economy, raising the GDP forecast for 2025 to 1.6% from 1.4% and for 2026 to 1.8% from 1.6% [4]. - The unemployment rate forecast for 2026 was lowered to 4.4% from 4.5%, while the core PCE inflation forecast was increased to 2.6% from 2.4% [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The independence of the Fed has led to gold being the biggest loser from the FOMC meeting, as it had previously seen a 10% increase since the Jackson Hole meeting [5]. - Other asset classes experienced limited volatility, with the market's expectations for a series of 25 basis point cuts being met [5]. Group 4: Monetary Policy and Labor Market - Powell expressed concerns about the labor market, introducing the term "risk management cut" to describe the Fed's approach to rate cuts, which may pressure the stock market [9]. - The current labor market faces challenges from reduced immigration and weakening demand, impacting the overall economic outlook [9]. Group 5: Political Pressures - Trump's significant divergence from the Fed's economic growth expectations creates ongoing political pressure, as the Fed's forecasts do not align with Trump's desire for higher growth to alleviate debt pressures [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut and the characteristics of the U.S. stock market, emphasizing its long-term investment potential despite short-term fluctuations [3][6][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has initiated its first interest rate cut of the year, reducing the federal funds rate by 25 basis points from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations [3]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell described this rate cut as a "risk management" move, indicating that the Fed is not entering a prolonged rate-cutting cycle, which the market interpreted as a hawkish stance [6]. Group 2: U.S. Stock Market Characteristics - The U.S. stock market is characterized by high efficiency and low investment difficulty, meaning that information is quickly reflected in stock prices due to the active trading environment [8]. - The market is dominated by institutional investors who possess advanced research capabilities and technology, allowing for rapid information processing and trading [10]. - The diverse participant structure in the U.S. market, including hedge funds, mutual funds, and pension funds, leads to comprehensive information analysis and price discovery [11]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Ordinary investors face challenges in outperforming indices due to the market's efficiency, making long-term holding of low-cost index funds a more rational strategy [12][13]. - The strong fundamentals of U.S. companies, coupled with significant stock buybacks, have driven the long-term bull market, with the S&P 500's price increase primarily attributed to earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [14][16]. - Major U.S. companies have demonstrated robust profitability and have engaged in substantial stock repurchase programs, enhancing earnings per share and supporting stock price appreciation [18][19]. Group 4: Complementarity with A-shares - The article highlights the low correlation between U.S. and A-share markets, suggesting that holding both can mitigate overall portfolio volatility during market downturns [22][26]. - Historical data indicates that during A-share bear markets, U.S. stocks have either remained stable or declined less, providing a buffer for investors [28]. - A balanced allocation between U.S. and A-shares allows investors to capture opportunities in both markets while managing risk effectively [32][34].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points and indicated the possibility of two more rate cuts within the year, as reflected in the dot plot [2][6] - Powell described the recent rate cut as a "risk management" decision, suggesting a cautious approach to future monetary policy [4][6] - The Fed's focus on employment risks has increased, indicating a potential shift in the labor market dynamics, with a "weak supply and demand" scenario [3][6] Group 2 - The economic forecast for GDP growth has been slightly revised upward to 1.6% for the year, primarily driven by investment [6][7] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain stable at 4.5% by year-end, despite concerns about labor market weaknesses [6][8] - Inflation expectations remain unchanged, with the PCE forecast at 3.0% for the year, indicating a stable inflation outlook [6][8] Group 3 - The Fed's balance sheet reduction remains unchanged, with a current pace of $50 billion for Treasury securities and $35 billion for MBS [3][9] - There is a potential for the Fed to halt balance sheet reduction by Q4, as bank reserves approach a critical threshold [9][10] - Current liquidity conditions in the dollar system are tightening, which may prompt the Fed to reconsider its balance sheet strategy [10] Group 4 - The U.S. economy is transitioning from a consumption-driven model to one driven by investment, which may lead to structural changes in employment data [7][8] - The impact of immigration policies on labor supply could keep unemployment rates stable despite a declining non-farm employment trend [8] - The dollar index is expected to strengthen, while the RMB may appreciate against the dollar, reflecting a dual bullish trend for both currencies [11]