Core Viewpoint - The primary task for China to achieve modernization is to conduct enlightenment education on modern civilization, emphasizing the importance of finance in the country's development process [1][2]. Group 1: Importance of Finance - There has been a long-standing bias against finance, attributing various economic and social issues to it, which overlooks finance's critical role in advancing legal civilization and modernization [1][2]. - Understanding the value and role of capital markets is essential for Chinese society [2]. Group 2: Characteristics of Financial Markets - Wu Xiaoqiu outlined twelve key characteristics of financial markets, including their functions as a general equivalent, payment and clearing roles, resource optimization through financing methods, risk dispersion and hedging, information flow, dual liquidity creation, wealth management platforms, the dual driving force of finance and technology, legal advancement, contract spirit reconstruction, market transparency enhancement, and their role as a force for social civilization [2]. Group 3: Focus Areas for China's Economic Development - Internally, China needs profound reforms in income distribution and technological advancement to make domestic demand the main driver of economic growth, which relies on stable income growth, reasonable expectations, and confidence in the future [2]. - Externally, while expanding domestic demand is crucial, external demand remains an important source of strength for China's economic development, highlighting the need for continued openness [2].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month and decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with the core CPI remaining stable [1] - The rise in CPI was driven by a recovery in food prices and travel service prices, with food prices up 0.2% month-on-month, exceeding seasonal levels by 1.4 percentage points [2] - The decline in CPI year-on-year was primarily influenced by a 4.8% drop in energy prices, with gasoline prices down 10.4%, contributing approximately 0.38 percentage points to the year-on-year decline [1][2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening compared to the previous month [1][3] - The Producer Purchase Price Index fell by 2.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decline of 0.6%, indicating increased price pressure in upstream materials due to external demand shocks [3] - Specific sectors such as coal mining and black metal mining continued to see price declines, while non-ferrous metal prices experienced a slight increase [3] Group 3: Policy Impact and Future Outlook - The government has intensified macro policies to promote consumption, leading to improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries, resulting in narrowed price declines [4] - High-tech industries are experiencing price increases, with wearable device manufacturing prices up 3.0% and aircraft manufacturing prices up 1.3% [4] - Analysts expect CPI to maintain a moderate trend due to domestic policy shifts towards expanding demand, while PPI may still face downward pressure amid various influencing factors [5]

同时，银行应根据借款人的信用记录和还款保障，与暂时遇到困难的借款人合理商定贷款偿还的期限、 频次，为符合条件的借款人提供续贷支持，帮助消费者渡过难关。 银行应规范消费贷款合同条款，明示最终综合融资成本，让消费者清楚了解贷款的各项费用和利率，避 免因信息不对称而产生误解和纠纷。同时，用好金融产品查询平台和金融消费者保护服务平台，让消费 者更便捷地查询金融产品信息，维护自身合法权益。例如，银行可以在官方网站或手机银行上提供金融 产品查询功能，详细展示各类金融产品的特点、收益和风险等信息；积极参与金融消费者保护服务平台 的建设，及时处理消费者的投诉和咨询。此外，推进消费场景支付便利化，满足老年人、外籍来华人员 等群体的支付服务需求，提供更加人性化和包容性的服务。完善金融消费纠纷多元化解决机制，增强消 费者的消费信心。 未来，随着消费市场的不断变化和发展，银行还需不断创新金融产品和服务模式，以更好地满足消费者 日益多样化的金融需求，为提振消费、扩大内需作出更大的贡献。 （文章来源：证券日报） 2025年，为大力提振消费，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》，要求各地 区各部门结合实际认真贯彻落实。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" serves as a crucial framework for China's modernization goals by 2035, addressing challenges such as global economic changes and strategic execution discrepancies [1] Historical Context of Cultural and Tourism Planning - Early Stage: Focus on resource integration and infrastructure development before 2000, with government initiatives to build scenic areas and enhance cultural facilities [1] - 2000-2010: Rapid growth in tourism with the introduction of the "Tourism Power" strategy, integrating cultural industries into national planning [2] - 2011-2015: Deep integration of cultural tourism, with cultural industries recognized as a pillar of the economy, leading to diversified and customized tourism experiences [3] - 2016-2020: Introduction of the "All-for-One Tourism" concept, merging cultural tourism with local economic development, and leveraging technology for innovative tourism models [4] Key Tasks of the 14th Five-Year Plan - Strengthening high-quality technological supply to drive innovation and industrial upgrades, focusing on future industries like AI and hydrogen energy [8] - Optimizing economic structure by enhancing the integration of digital economy with the real economy, promoting high-end manufacturing and green development [9] - Expanding domestic demand and upgrading consumption to solidify economic growth, emphasizing infrastructure development in rural areas and investment in high-tech industries [10]

Group 1 - The domestic market is a source of confidence and strength, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 4.6% year-on-year in Q1, and new energy vehicle retail sales growing by 36.4% with a penetration rate of 47.2% [1] - The film box office reached 24.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 48%, setting a historical record [1] - The large-scale market is creating opportunities for innovative companies, as seen with Xiaomi's launch of a dual-tub washing machine in response to consumer demand, leading to over 80,000 pre-orders within a week [1] Group 2 - The large-scale market is also becoming a crucial support for foreign trade enterprises, with initiatives to integrate domestic and foreign trade, including expedited listing of foreign goods in supermarkets and support for online sales [2] - Consumer demand is increasingly characterized by personalization, diversification, and quality, presenting opportunities for high-quality supply and development potential for various enterprises, including foreign trade companies [2] Group 3 - Expanding domestic demand with a focus on boosting consumption is essential for converting the potential of the large-scale market into tangible economic performance [3] - Policies aimed at stabilizing employment, stock markets, and real estate are being implemented to support consumer spending and address deep-rooted institutional constraints [3] - The construction of a unified national market and modern infrastructure is being promoted to enhance the advantages of the large-scale market and facilitate the orderly flow of resources [3]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 09 日 [Table_Title] 高关税之下，出口结构有变化 据海关总署，2025 年 4 月出口总值为 3157 亿美元，同比增长 8.1%，高于市场预期的 1.9%，前值为 12.4%；进口总值为 2195 亿美元，同比下降 0.2%，预期-5.9%，前值-4.3%。4月以来中美贸易紧张局势逐渐升 级，美国对华关税提高至 145%，中国也采取了反制措施，如何看待 4 月份进出口数据？ 一是美国加征关税的影响开始显现。4 月对美出口同比下降 20.9%，为 2023 年 7 月以来最低增速；拖累出 口同比约 3 个百分点。美国 10%基准关税于 4 月 5 日生效，其他更高对等关税于 4 月 9 日陆续生效。而对来自 中国（含香港）的小包免税待遇，于 5 月 2 日取消。根据美国海关发布的文件，美国关税生效之前已装船并处于 最终运输模式，在规定时间前到达美国，可豁免关税。因而 4 月对美出口受到关税的部分影响，更全面的影响可 能体现在 5 月数据之中。 美国加征关税冲击下，周边经济体出口走势分化。韩国 4 月出口同比增幅为 3 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 节前一周，政策出台不多，主要关注以下内容。 （一）全国人大动态 ： 4 月 30 日，全国人大常委会表决通过民营经济促进法，该法将于 5 月 20 日 正式实施。 （二）总书记重要行程 ： 1 ） 4 月 29 日， 总书记在上海考察，并在上海"模速空间"大模型创新生 态社区调研，对上海积极发展人工智能取得的实效给予肯定。 2 ） 4 月 30 日，总书记主持召开部分 省区市"十五五"时期经济社会发展座谈会，强调谋划"十五五"时期经济社会发展，要"要坚定不移办好 自己的事，坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放"，"更加注重统筹发展和安全"，"把因地制宜发展新质生产 力摆在更加突出的战略位置"，"稳步推动共同富裕"等。 （三）发改委及财政部政策吹风 ： 1 ） 4 月 28 日 ， 国新办就稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措 施有关情况举行发布会，发改委表示，" 提振消费方面 ，近期我们已经下达了今年第二批消费品以旧 换新资金，前两批一共下达超过 ...

Economic Growth and Policy Response - China's economy grew by 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, laying a solid foundation for the annual growth target of around 5% [1] - The positive economic performance is attributed to proactive macro policies and some companies engaging in "export rush" to avoid high tariffs [1] - Despite the better-than-expected performance, there are still issues with insufficient effective demand that need to be addressed for sustained recovery [1] External Trade and Tariff Impact - The U.S. has imposed comprehensive tariffs, negatively impacting global trade and economic conditions [1] - In response to the adverse external environment, China has intensified its economic stabilization policies [1] - The Chinese government is focused on improving employment and economic stability through a series of specific measures [1][2] Financial Policy Measures - A package of financial policies will be introduced to stabilize market expectations, including interest rate cuts and support for consumption and investment [2] - The government aims to enhance the financial system to support the real economy and stabilize the housing market [2] Support for Foreign Trade Enterprises - There is a need for targeted support for foreign trade enterprises affected by U.S. tariffs, including market diversification and promoting new business models like cross-border e-commerce [7] - The government should monitor and provide tailored support for vulnerable small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises [7] Consumer Spending and Economic Growth - To boost consumption, it is essential to create more consumption scenarios and expand into underdeveloped sectors such as the silver economy and sports entertainment [8] - Increasing residents' income through various measures, including wage growth and subsidies, is crucial for enhancing consumer spending [9] Investment Strategies - Effective investment should align with consumer demand and public needs, focusing on projects that enhance living standards, such as charging facilities and parking spaces [10] - The government is encouraged to remove restrictions in the consumption sector to stimulate investment and consumption [11] Market Confidence and Expectations - The introduction of significant reforms and policies is expected to stabilize market expectations and enhance confidence in the economy [12] - Strengthening policy implementation and market interaction is vital for maintaining stable expectations and boosting market confidence [12]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the retail industry, with expectations of continued pressure on physical retail operations and a focus on online retail as the main growth driver [2][36]. Core Insights - In 2024, the retail market is expected to face challenges due to a slowdown in consumption growth, increased savings willingness, and external macroeconomic impacts, leading to insufficient consumer demand and a need for improved consumer confidence [2][4]. - Online retail remains the primary driver of consumption growth, although its growth rate has slowed. The report anticipates that companies with strategies closely aligned with consumer needs and efficient multi-channel service capabilities will achieve structural growth [2][36]. - The government is expected to continue and possibly increase policy support for the consumption sector in 2025, but the effectiveness of these policies will depend on improvements in consumer spending capacity and willingness [2][36]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2024, consumer spending is crucial for GDP growth, but the growth rate is slowing, particularly in the department store sector, which faces significant operational pressure [4][5]. - The retail industry is a vital part of the modern commercial circulation system, contributing significantly to economic circulation and employment [4]. Retail Performance - In 2024, China's total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.5%, a noticeable slowdown compared to the previous year. Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 6.5%, contributing significantly to overall retail growth [5][25]. - The performance of various retail formats showed mixed results, with convenience stores and specialty stores experiencing growth, while department stores and brand specialty stores faced declines [5][19]. Subsector Analysis 1. **Department Stores** - The department store sector has seen a decline in retail sales, with a 5.0% drop in the first three quarters of 2024 compared to the previous year. The sector is under significant operational pressure, with many stores closing [13][15]. - The overall performance of department stores is at a low point, with revenue and profit indices at their lowest in nearly a decade [15]. 2. **Supermarkets** - Supermarkets showed some resilience, with a 2.7% growth in 2024, but the overall recovery trend remains unclear. Many supermarkets reported increased sales without corresponding profit growth [19][20]. - The number of supermarket stores is decreasing, with more closures than openings, indicating a challenging competitive environment [20]. 3. **Online Retail** - Online retail continues to be a significant growth driver, with a 6.5% increase in sales in 2024, outpacing overall retail growth. The top 100 online retail companies generated a total sales volume of 1.91 trillion yuan [25][26]. - Innovations such as live streaming and instant retail are key factors driving online consumption growth [26]. Industry Policies and Focus - The government has implemented various policies to stimulate consumption, including the "old for new" policy for consumer goods, which is expected to support market growth [28]. - The retail industry has seen increased capital activity, with several mergers and acquisitions aimed at optimizing asset structures and expanding market presence [32][34].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing consumption quality and expanding domestic demand as key topics for the 2025 National Two Sessions, highlighting the need for consumers to feel confident and willing to spend [1] - Lin's Home has established a quality ecosystem through its smart manufacturing industrial cluster, focusing on "assured consumption" and implementing comprehensive quality control measures to boost consumer confidence and stimulate demand in the home furnishing industry [1][15] Group 1: Quality Management System - Lin's Home has created a traceable and actionable management system, moving away from traditional self-owned factory models to a "cooperative supplier" model, which presents higher management challenges but allows for innovative quality control [3][4] - The industrial park has introduced a "four aspects in place" management system that covers 13 quality inspection checkpoints, ensuring accountability at every stage of production [4] - The use of upgraded raw materials, such as ENF-grade boards and odorless coconut fiber, is part of Lin's Home's commitment to quality, with a focus on improving user experience through product development [6] Group 2: Digital Transformation - The industrial park leverages digitalization to enhance the quality management system, transforming traditional isolated production into a highly efficient collaborative model [8] - Lin's Home has developed a Manufacturing Operations Management (MOM) system to streamline business processes and ensure timely and quality delivery of products [8][10] - The introduction of automated equipment in production, such as advanced cutting machines, has improved resource utilization by 10% and enhanced quality management [10] Group 3: Market Impact and Future Outlook - The industrial park serves as a testing ground for Lin's Home's "quality-price ratio" strategy, focusing on ergonomic designs and optimizing product features based on user data [12][14] - The successful launch of popular products like the "Dynamic Island Sofa" and "Zero Fatigue Mattress" has demonstrated the effectiveness of the quality management system, with over 80% of production capacity handled by the industrial park [14] - Lin's Home's approach is creating a ripple effect in the industry, promoting a shift from decentralized manufacturing to collaborative quality production, thus providing a replicable model for small and medium suppliers [14][15]