银河证券研报认为，春节后，在政策预期、流动性加持与产业趋势催化下，市场震荡上行概率较大，同 时需密切关注海外不确定性对于市场情绪的短期扰动。两会前后，A股市场或将以政策催化为核心驱动 力，资金围绕政策导向的产业主线与主题机会博弈，呈现"政策热点轮动、风格快速切换"的特征。3月 市场逻辑将从"政策预期"逐步转向"业绩兑现"，上市公司2025年年报与随后的2026年一季报披露将成为 行情锚点，业绩超预期标的或获得资金聚焦。在配置机会上，重点关注：主线一，供需格局改善与行业 盈利修复带动的"反内卷"概念，以及估值具备安全边际的红利资产，配置逻辑依然清晰，建议关注受益 于价格上涨的有色金属（贵金属）、石油石化行业，以及基础化工、钢铁、水泥、建筑材料、金融等板 块。主线二，春节假期期间，机器人、AI大模型等热点受到广泛关注，节后或将呈现结构性亮点。随 着全球百年未遇之大变局加速演进，国内经济底层逻辑转向新质生产力，半导体、人工智能、新能源、 军工、航空航天等"十五五"重点领域值得关注。 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a positive outlook for the non-bank financial sector, driven by favorable policies and continued capital inflow, suggesting potential for sector rebound [1][6]. - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the sector, indicating expected strong performance relative to the market [2]. Market Performance - As of February 14, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.41%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.39%. The CSI 300 Index saw a modest gain of 0.36% [12]. - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.11 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12.3% decrease week-on-week [6]. Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary Insurance Sector - The report indicates that listed insurance companies are expected to maintain high growth, with a marginal improvement in long-term interest margins. The insurance fund utilization scale reached 38.5 trillion yuan in Q4 2025, up 15.7% year-on-year [18]. - The report suggests that the upcoming spring market rally may drive better-than-expected performance for insurance companies in Q1 2026, supported by a stable long-term interest rate and an upward trend in the equity market [18]. Securities Sector - The report discusses the recent optimization measures for refinancing announced by the three major exchanges, which aim to enhance financing efficiency and support high-quality enterprises [19]. - The new refinancing rules are expected to create structural opportunities for securities firms, shifting the focus from compliance to the ability to identify and serve quality clients [20]. - The report emphasizes that the optimization of refinancing will lead to a more differentiated regulatory system, benefiting quality companies while tightening controls on weaker entities [22]. Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - The report provides detailed valuations for several key companies in the sector, including: - China Ping An (601318.SH) with a target price of 85.17 yuan and a "Buy" rating [7]. - New China Life (601336.SH) with a target price of 94.21 yuan and a "Buy" rating [7]. - China Life (601628.SH) with a target price of 55.47 yuan and a "Buy" rating [7]. - The report also highlights the expected earnings per share (EPS) growth for these companies, indicating a positive outlook for their financial performance in 2025 and 2026 [7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - Geopolitical risks and tariff risks are impacting the Hong Kong stock market, with a focus on how these factors will influence market performance post-holiday [1]. - The report highlights that the U.S. GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 was 1.4%, significantly below the expected 2.5%, indicating a slowdown in the U.S. economy [2][44]. - The report suggests that the recent increase in U.S. tariffs from 10% to 15% on global goods may lead to heightened investor risk aversion, benefiting sectors like precious metals and energy [2][46]. - The consumption sector is currently at a relatively low valuation, with potential for growth as consumer policies increase [2][46]. - The technology sector remains a long-term investment focus, with reduced valuation pressure and potential for rebound due to advancements in AI [2][46]. Market Review - During the week of February 16 to February 20, 2026, the Hong Kong stock market saw declines, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.58% to 26,413.25 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 2.78% to 511.50 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.81% to 8,959.56 points [4][6]. - Among the primary sectors, 8 sectors increased while 3 sectors decreased, with energy, materials, and industrial sectors showing the highest gains [6][14]. - The trading volume was affected by the Spring Festival, with a total turnover of HKD 850.56 billion on February 16 and HKD 1,654.61 billion on February 20, lower than the previous week's average [14][18]. Valuation and Risk Premium - As of February 20, 2026, the PE and PB ratios for the Hang Seng Index were 12.09 and 1.23, respectively, placing them at the 79% and 55% percentiles since 2010 [22][29]. - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index was calculated at 4.19%, indicating a low-risk environment compared to historical data [29][31]. - The report notes that the dividend yields for the energy and communication services sectors are above 5%, suggesting stable income opportunities for investors [36][41]. Investment Outlook - The report recommends focusing on sectors that may benefit from geopolitical tensions and tariff adjustments, particularly precious metals and energy [46]. - The consumption sector is expected to gain momentum as consumer policies are implemented, while the technology sector is anticipated to rebound due to advancements in AI [46].

春节假期落幕，A股市场即将迎来节后交易窗口。 A股休市期间，富时A50期指屡创新高，港股市场也表现亮眼。2月23日，恒生指数、恒生科技指数盘初 涨幅双双扩大至2%，科技、贵金属股走强，紫金矿业（02899.HK）涨逾5%，美团（03690.HK）、中 芯国际（00981.HK）均涨逾4%。 科技风格行情有望延续 人形机器人产业因春晚节目表演引发全民热议，也增强了市场对节后科技行情演绎的预期。 与此同时，资金面"弹药充足"，央行在春节前通过买断式逆回购等操作确保流动性平稳，1月金融数据 更是传来"开门红"，M2同比增长9.0%，社融存量增速达8.2%，为市场提供了宽裕的宏观环境。 回顾来看，近20年春节后5个交易日上证指数上涨概率达到75%，平均涨幅1.2%，节前避险资金回流与 政策利好叠加，有望推动节后交易活跃度快速回升。多份机构研报指出，在流动性宽裕、"日历效应"、 政策支持、产业趋势等多因素支撑下，科技有望成为A股春节后的行情主线。 春节"日历效应" 春节假期期间，A股外围市场的积极信号不容忽视。截至发稿，富时A50期指上涨1.48%，该指数在A股 休市期间延续升势，累计上涨超1.7%，反映出海外资金对中 ...

春节假期落幕，A股市场即将迎来节后交易窗口。 A股休市期间，富时A50期指屡创新高，港股市场也表现亮眼。2月23日，恒生指数、恒生科技指数盘初 涨幅双双扩大至2%，科技、贵金属股走强，紫金矿业（02899.HK）涨逾5%，美团（03690.HK）、中 芯国际（00981.HK）均涨逾4%。 与此同时，资金面"弹药充足"，央行在春节前通过买断式逆回购等操作确保流动性平稳，1月金融数据 更是传来"开门红"，M2同比增长9.0%，社融存量增速达8.2%，为市场提供了宽裕的宏观环境。 回顾来看，近20年春节后5个交易日上证指数上涨概率达到75%，平均涨幅1.2%，节前避险资金回流与 政策利好叠加，有望推动节后交易活跃度快速回升。多份机构研报指出，在流动性宽裕、"日历效应"、 政策支持、产业趋势等多因素支撑下，科技有望成为A股春节后的行情主线。 春节"日历效应" 机构普遍指出，春节后A股科技行情的驱动核心主要来自两方面：一是节后往往迎来政策和产业催化的 密集落地期，例如"人工智能+"、数字经济发展规划等常在此时间段内加速推进；二是美股与港股的映 射效应显著，春节期间海外市场表现强势的科技板块，节后通常能带动A股相关标的 ...

大科学装置——重离子加速器，是应用于核物理研究、材料科学以及肿瘤治疗等领域的国之重器。全国 政协委员、中国科学院近代物理研究所副所长杨建成，多年来深耕重离子加速器的自主研发与成果转 化。 今年全国两会，杨建成将聚焦重离子加速器产业发展、临床应用等关键问题提出建议，让大国重器更好 服务社会、造福人民。 近日，杨建成专程来到位于兰州新区的一家高新技术企业走访调研。这家企业负责国产医用重离子装置 设备的全链条制造，在技术攻关和市场推广等方面，面临哪些难题，是杨建成这次调研的重点。 兰州某科技公司常务副总经理 姚俊杰：随着我们整个重离子产业的日趋完善，我们现在在推广的过程 中，要引进社会资本去办医，这样能把民间资本跟社会资本，纳入整个国家的医疗体系。 杨建成作为中国首台医用重离子加速器的核心研发者之一，始终密切关注治疗装置的运行和治疗效果。 在武威重离子中心，杨建成与医护团队交流，详细了解我国首台拥有自主知识产权的医用重离子加速器 的运行情况。截至目前，这台装置已完成2400多例疑难肿瘤的治疗。 武威肿瘤医院副院长 张雁山：在我们面前的这个治疗台控制的是1号室和2号室，目前所有都是远程化 操作，在这对位、对线，位置非 ...

Core Insights - The annual analyst field survey during the Spring Festival reveals significant trends in China's economy, with a focus on consumer behavior and industrial developments [1] Consumer Insights - Service-oriented consumption has emerged as a key focus, with analysts noting a strong demand for service consumption during the Spring Festival, particularly in Shanghai, where logistics and service sectors thrived [3] - Observations from Jiangsu province indicate a structural upgrade in consumer behavior, shifting from product-centric to a balance of goods and services, with notable increases in prices and consumption levels in entertainment and dining [3] - The rise of new consumption patterns, such as KTV and cinema attendance, reflects a broader trend towards experiential and service-based spending [2][3] Industrial Insights - Analysts report a rise in new productive forces across various regions, with traditional industries undergoing significant upgrades [5] - In Dalian, the port's logistics advantages have fostered a traditional industrial cluster focused on petrochemicals and equipment manufacturing, with a shift towards refined production processes [5] - Shandong's industrial transformation is highlighted by significant investments in new energy storage technologies, indicating a growing focus on innovative industrial applications [6] Overseas Opportunities - Analysts emphasize the potential for Chinese companies to expand overseas, particularly in Southeast Asia, with Indonesia identified as a key market for Chinese enterprises [7] - The importance of localizing products for the Southeast Asian market is underscored, with successful examples like Mengniu and Mixue demonstrating effective market entry strategies [7] - Observations from Sydney indicate rising prices in consumer goods and housing, highlighting economic challenges in international markets [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Dongfang Shenghong (000301) for the first time [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the cyclical turning point has arrived, and Dongfang Shenghong, as a leader in refining and new materials, is poised for growth. The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the refining product market and the completion of its capital expenditures [8][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - Dongfang Shenghong is a global leader in large-scale refining, with a capacity of 16 million tons per year. The company has developed a comprehensive industrial structure that includes refining, new energy materials, and polyester fibers, leveraging a unique multi-feedstock approach for olefin production [8][15]. Industry Dynamics - The refining industry is undergoing a transformation, with a focus on reducing oil dependency and increasing chemical production. The report notes that the domestic refining sector is expected to consolidate, with larger integrated projects becoming the norm, which will benefit Dongfang Shenghong [33][40]. Financial Performance - The report forecasts that Dongfang Shenghong's revenue will be 126.2 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 8%, followed by a recovery to 138.5 billion yuan in 2026 and 142.0 billion yuan in 2027. The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching 1.4 billion yuan, with significant growth projected in subsequent years [1][72]. Product Segments - The refining segment is expected to maintain a gross margin above 20%, driven by the company's large-scale and efficient refining operations. The polyester segment, with a capacity of 3.6 million tons per year, is also projected to benefit from industry-wide production cuts aimed at stabilizing prices [36][71]. Capital Expenditure and Growth Prospects - The company is nearing the end of its capital expenditure phase, with most of its facilities already operational. This is expected to lead to improved operational efficiency and profitability as market conditions stabilize [8][10]. Competitive Advantages - Dongfang Shenghong's integrated supply chain and diverse feedstock sources provide it with a competitive edge in cost control and risk management. The company is also focusing on expanding its new materials product lines, which are expected to contribute significantly to future revenue [28][65].

2026 年 02 月 22 日 策略类●证券研究报告 节后春季行情可能延续，科技和周期占优 定期报告 投资要点 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 分析师 张欣诺 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910525110001 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn 2026.2.13 主动偏股基金加仓有色、通信，减仓医药 2026.2.12 震荡波动呈现收敛，新股板块向上活跃周期 或依然在途-华金证券新股周报 2026.2.8 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 25 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 节前市场担忧的风险因素在假期期间基本未发生。（1）春节期间出行和消费数据 偏好，对经济和盈利的担忧未出现。一是春节期间出行数据同比增长明显。二是春 节期间消费数据也偏好。（2）美国通胀回落，流动性收紧的担忧未出现。一是美 国 1 月 CPI 同比增速从 2025 年 12 月的 2.7%下滑至 2.4%，同时 1 月非农时薪同 比增速继续下滑至 3.71%，通胀和就业市场继续降温，美联储年内大概率继续降息。 二是美国 ...

春节出行和消费市场呈温和回升、层次鲜明特征，政策聚焦扩内需优结构，实体、物价、流动性各维度 数据表现分化。春运前19天跨区域人员流动日均2.48亿人次、同比增5.1%，水运成增长亮点，出行市场 进入常态化周期；商品消费依托政策与消费升级实现量价回升，智能产品成亮点，服务消费中旅游表现 亮眼，电影消费受供给质量影响表现平淡。近两周政策围绕扩内需稳增长、优结构强创新双线发力，兼 顾短期与中长期发展。实体端内需待振外需亮眼，生产分化，基建资金充裕但项目短缺问题的仍存，节 前停工早于往年，出口仍有韧性或对经济起到托底作用，生产分化持续；物价上CPI小幅上涨、PPI整体 平稳；流动性保持合理充裕，人民币持续升值。 本文来自格隆汇专栏：梁中华宏观研究 作者：李林芷、邵睿思、梁中华 投资要点 风险提示：贸易局势不确定性，国内需求修复不及预期。 1、春节：出行和消费温和改善 2026年春节出行和消费市场呈现出温和回升、层次鲜明的运行特征，商品消费托底、服务消费需求主 导，新质生产力向消费端的落地转化，更成为此次春节消费的亮眼新增长点。 人员流动：长假支撑下需求进一步释放，出行结构多元升级。国内春运已从过去的"单向返乡大迁徙" ...