据路透社等报道，2026年来，美元再次遭到抛售。美元指数1月26日创下自去年4月以来最大的三日跌 幅，并一度下探至去年9月以来的最低水平。 路透社指，仅凭这一点，美元对投资者的吸引力就大打折扣，投资者可能会选择将资金投入到利率走高 的地方。 目前，美联储主席鲍威尔一直在抵制特朗普要求加快降息的压力，但他将于5月卸任。贝莱德全球固定 收益首席投资官里德尔(Rick Rieder)有可能成为继任者，他和特朗普一样主张降低利率，这进一步打压 了美元表现。 来源：中国新闻网 作者: 宫宏宇 美元指数走势。数据来源：Wind 就美元目前面临的挑战而言，路透社提到，受美国明尼苏达州居民遭联邦执法人员枪击身亡等事件影 响，本月对美国国土安全部的政府拨款法案可能难以通过，联邦政府1月底部分"停摆"的可能性正大大 增加。 "政府关门的风险进一步加大了美元的下跌压力，为那些正在重新考虑是否投资美国或对冲美元风险的 人提供了又一个理由。"华盛顿Potomac River Capital首席投资官Mark Spindel表示。 此外，市场普遍预计美联储今年至少还将降息两次，而其他主要央行则可能按兵不动或甚至加息。 路透社指，2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching historical highs, is driven by geopolitical risks and expectations of monetary policy changes, with potential for further increases in the future [1][4][5]. Price Movements - On January 26, London spot gold hit a record high of $5111.17 per ounce, briefly surpassing the psychological barrier of $5000 before experiencing volatility [1]. - As of January 27, gold was trading around $5090.78 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 17% [1][2]. - COMEX gold also reported a similar year-to-date increase of over 17%, trading at $5089.4 per ounce [1][2]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical risks, particularly related to U.S.-Korea trade tensions and other international conflicts, have significantly heightened market demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6]. - Analysts noted that events such as the Greenland sovereignty dispute and escalating U.S.-Iran tensions have contributed to increased demand for gold [5][6]. Monetary Policy and Economic Factors - Expectations of a dovish shift in U.S. Federal Reserve policy are seen as a key driver for rising gold prices, with analysts predicting continued monetary easing [6][9]. - Global fiscal expansion plans from multiple countries are expected to support inflation expectations, further enhancing gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [6][9]. Central Bank Activity - Central banks are projected to continue increasing gold reserves, with predictions of a rise in purchases to 950 metric tons by 2026 [9]. - The trend of central banks diversifying away from the U.S. dollar is expected to provide structural support for gold prices [9][10]. Future Price Predictions - Market analysts are optimistic about gold's future, with some predicting prices could reach $6000 per ounce by the end of 2026 under bullish scenarios [10][11]. - Various investment banks have raised their gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs projecting a target of $5400 per ounce by 2026 [11]. Short-term Volatility - Despite the bullish outlook, short-term volatility is acknowledged, with potential price corrections expected due to speculative positioning and market reactions to geopolitical developments [11][12]. - Analysts suggest that gold prices may fluctuate between $4800 and $5200 per ounce leading up to the Chinese New Year, influenced by Federal Reserve meetings and ongoing geopolitical risks [12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Amid complex global geopolitical situations, gold, as a preferred safe - haven asset, may continue to be boosted. Under the assumption of inflation and employment data stabilizing, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times in the second half of the year. With the Fed's restart of the balance - sheet expansion plan, the overall bullish logic for precious metals remains intact in the medium - to - long - term. It is advisable to adopt a dip - buying strategy, while being cautious of short - term high - level pullback risks. The upper resistance for London gold is $5100/oz, and the lower support is $4900/oz; for London silver, the upper resistance is $110/oz, and the lower support is $90/oz [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 1148.380 yuan/gram, up 5.1 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 28300 yuan/kg, up 1093 yuan. The main contract trading volume of Shanghai gold was 401,545 hands, up 5583 hands; that of Shanghai silver was 1,038,738 hands, up 72,838 hands. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold were 217,484 hands, up 1664 hands; those of Shanghai silver were 25,473 hands, down 12,972 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold was 103,029 kg, unchanged; that of Shanghai silver was 544,244 kg, down 29,566 kg [2] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1144.14 yuan/gram, down 0.31 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 28,388 yuan/kg, up 896 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 4.24 yuan/gram, down 5.37 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was 88 yuan/kg, down 197 yuan [2] 3. Supply - Demand Situation - The SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1086.53 tons, unchanged; the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15,974.40 tons, down 115.58 tons. The non - commercial net long positions of gold in CFTC were 244,770 contracts, down 6468 contracts; for silver, they were 25,214 contracts, down 6846 contracts. The quarterly total supply of gold was 1313.07 tons, up 86.24 tons; the annual total supply of silver was 32,056 tons, up 482 tons. The quarterly total demand for gold was 1257.90 tons, up 174.15 tons; the annual total demand for silver was 35,716 tons, down 491 tons. The US dollar index was 97.04, down 0.46; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.90%, down 0.02% [2] 4. Macro Data - The VIX volatility index was 16.15, up 0.06; the CBOE gold volatility index was 32.70, up 2.69. The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 1.37, down 0.03; the gold - silver ratio was 46.45, down 3.52 [2] 5. Industry News - US President Trump said the US was deploying troops to Iran and many ships were moving towards Iran, and a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran would soon take effect. The US also imposed a new round of sanctions on entities and ships related to Iran's energy and shipping systems. Trump said the US expected to obtain "sovereignty" over the area of the US military base in Greenland. Several Democratic senators said they would vote against the government appropriation bill, increasing the risk of a partial government shutdown at the end of January. Trump may announce the new Fed chair this week, with Rick Rieder's nomination probability rising from 4% to about 50%. According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January was 2.8%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged was 97.2%. By March, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cumulative rate cut was 15.5%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged was 84.1%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cumulative rate cut was 0.4% [2] 6. Key Events to Watch - January 28, 02:00: US M2 money supply; January 29, 03:00: Fed interest rate decision and monetary policy statement; January 29, 21:30: US November trade balance (imports and exports); January 30, 21:30: US PPI year - on - year (%) [2]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The recent Davos Forum signals increased investor concerns over global growth uncertainty and rising risk premiums, with gold prices surpassing $5000 per ounce, indicating macroeconomic and geopolitical factors are significant constraints on asset allocation[1] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of a soft landing, with initial jobless claims slightly decreasing and core PCE growth slowing, leading to market expectations that the Fed's next rate cut may be delayed until July[10] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Following three risk management rate cuts in the second half of last year, the Fed is expected to pause rate adjustments in the upcoming meeting, with Chairman Powell likely to express satisfaction with the current monetary policy stance[2] - The current K-shaped economic structure in the U.S. does not support broad and sustained employment improvements, suggesting that if job growth remains weak, the Fed may need to lower rates more than the market currently anticipates[2] - The market is pricing in two rate cuts this year, with the first potentially occurring only once in the first half and three times in the second half[19] Group 3: Risk Factors - If inflation rises again or employment significantly exceeds expectations, the Fed's capacity and pace for rate cuts may be constrained[3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term safe - haven situation is affected by rising risks of trade wars and geopolitical changes, along with a weakening US job market and moderate inflation, which support the expectation of interest rate cuts. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, the US aircraft carrier strike group is gathering in the Middle East, and Iran has threatened a full - scale war in case of any attack. Trump plans to raise tariffs on some South Korean goods, increasing trade war and geopolitical risks. - Regarding the monetary attribute, US core capital goods orders in November increased for the fifth consecutive month, boosting the economic outlook. The December CPI increase met expectations, but household food and rent expenses rose. The Fed cut interest rates in December with differences, hinting at a possible single rate cut next year. The market expects a 95% probability of no rate cut in January 2026, with the next possible cut in June. The US dollar index and US bond yields are oscillating strongly. - For the commodity attribute, the Polish central bank plans to buy up to 150 tons of gold. Silver is supported by tight supply. Platinum has strong demand expectations for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen energy industry. Palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. - It is expected that precious metals will oscillate upward in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise in a step - like manner in the long term [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Gold - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, buy on dips. Manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Price Data**: Comex gold active contract closed at $5004.80 per ounce, up 0.44% from the previous day and 8.77% from last week. London gold closed at $5090.80 per ounce, up 2.92% from the previous day and 9.08% from last week. Shanghai gold futures closed at 1148.38 yuan per gram, up 0.44% from the previous day and 8.32% from last week [2]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex gold positions were 528,004 lots, up 8.17% from last week. Shanghai gold futures positions were 217,484 lots, up 0.77% from the previous day and 16.95% from last week. LBMA gold inventory was 9106 tons, up 2.24% from last week [2]. 2. Silver - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, buy on dips. Manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - **Price Data**: Comex silver active contract closed at $103.89 per ounce, up 0.61% from the previous day and 15.50% from last week. London silver closed at $109.61 per ounce, up 10.71% from the previous day and 17.85% from last week. Shanghai silver futures closed at 28,300 yuan per kilogram, up 4.02% from the previous day and 22.71% from last week [4]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex silver positions were 152,020 lots, up 0.33% from last week. Shanghai silver futures positions were 4,653,150 lots, down 3.83% from the previous day and 1.43% from last week. The total visible inventory was 41,819 tons, down 0.09% from the previous day and 1.13% from last week [4]. 3. Platinum - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, buy on dips. Manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Price Data**: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2627.10 per ounce, up 5.98% from the previous day and 8.75% from last week. London platinum closed at $2507.00 per ounce, up 0.20% from the previous day and 5.07% from last week. Platinum futures on the GQEX closed at 685.90 yuan per gram, up 8.21% from the previous day and 12.43% from last week [7]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: NYMEX platinum positions were 66,423 lots, down 0.51% from the previous day and up 0.26% from last week. NYMEX platinum inventory was 21 tons, down 1.46% from the previous day and up 4.94% from last week [7]. 4. Palladium - **Strategy**: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, buy low and sell high. Manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [10]. - **Price Data**: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1945.50 per ounce, up 3.79% from the previous day and 4.29% from last week. London palladium closed at $1850.00 per ounce, up 2.35% from the previous day and 2.44% from last week. Palladium futures on the GQEX closed at 497.95 yuan per gram, up 2.94% from the previous day and 6.09% from last week [10]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: NYMEX palladium positions were 17,998 lots, down 0.22% from the previous day and 2.15% from last week. NYMEX palladium inventory was 7 tons, up 2.54% from last week [10]. 5. Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - **Monetary Attribute**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 3.75%, and the reserve balance interest rate is 3.65%. The Fed's total assets are $66354.43 billion. M2 growth rate is 4.27%. The 10 - year US real bond yield is 2.46%, the US dollar index is 97.04, and the US bond spreads and interest rate differentials show certain changes [11][13]. - **US Economic Indicators**: Unemployment rate is 4.40%, non - farm payrolls changed by 50,000, labor participation rate is 62.10%, average hourly wage growth rate is 3.80%. In the real estate market, existing home sales are 4.35 million units, new home sales are 0.57 million units, and new home starts are 1.061 million units. Retail sales, personal consumption, industrial production, and trade data also show specific changes [13]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's gold reserves are 2306.32 tons, the US's are 8133.46 tons, and the world's total is 36362.76 tons. The proportion of US dollars in IMF foreign exchange reserves is 56.32%, the euro is 21.13%, and the RMB is 2.12% [13]. - **Safe - Haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index is 67.15, down 34.97% from the previous day and 62.69% from last week. The VIX index is 16.15, up 0.37% from the previous day and down 14.28% from last week. The CRB commodity index is 315.11, up 0.92% from the previous day and 2.86% from last week. The offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.9516 [13]. 6. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate decisions at different meetings from January 2026 to December 2027 are presented in the CME FedWatch tool, showing the probabilities of different interest rate ranges at each meeting [15].

【华通白银网1月27日讯】黄金白银价格周一飙升，突破5000美元/盎司和110美元/盎司，创下历史新高，金银均有望创下近40多年来最大 的单月涨幅。 目前，黄金价格已连续第八个月上涨，自新年前夕以来已上涨了18.1%。 截至今日，黄金价格已突破5000美元大关。作为"避险"资产，黄金在1999年9月大幅上涨了17.3%。当时，欧洲各国央行决定限制并协调 未来的黄金销售，这引发了黄金价格的大幅飙升。此前，由于黄金价格处于近二十年来的最低水平，各国央行纷纷削减了黄金储备。 "这主要是由特朗普政府上周的一些反复无常的决策所引发。" 由于黄金和白银在其他所有货币中也创下了历史新高，美元指数也遭遇了4个月来的新低。美元下跌了约0.5%。此前一周美元已下跌了 1.6%，这是自5月以来美元单周跌幅最大的一次。此前，特朗普曾首次威胁对美国的北约盟国征收新的"格陵兰贸易关税"，但随后又突然 放弃了这一想法。 白银的表现使得金银比进一步下跌至46，这是自2011年9月以来黄金相对于白银价格的最低值。 在本周美联储首次于2026年举行政策会议之前，期货市场的押注显示，1月份美联储的决策中"维持利率不变"的可能性目前为97%，但根 ...

申银万国期货分析称，从流动性来看，经济数据显示美国通胀压力缓解，就业仍然疲软，2026年美联储 仍将继续降息，宽松的流动性环境为贵金属的上涨提供有力支撑。在此背景下，全球投资者对贵金属的 战略配置需求提升，黄金和白银ETF规模持续扩张，助推贵金属价格上升。短期白银涨幅较大，资金或 存在一定兑现压力，黄金表现更为稳健。 光大期货表示，黄金继续上行为白银拓开空间，但金银比已迅速降至50以下，市场分歧加大，白银短期 上下波动幅度预计较大，观望为上。 铜冠金源期货指出，昨日贵金属价格的剧烈波动显示市场出现巨大的分歧。在连续多日由动量推动、追 涨情绪主导的行情之后，这轮上涨已经变得极为脆弱。预计短期贵金属价格将剧烈波动，特别是白银高 位回调的风险加大。 1月27日，国内期市贵金属板块涨跌参半。其中，沪银期货主力合约开盘报27300.00元/千克，今日盘中 高位震荡运行；截至发稿，沪银主力最高触及30020.00元，下方探低27000.00元，涨幅达6.81%附近。 目前来看，沪银行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于沪银后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： ...

周一，金价首次站上5100美元，年初至今已涨超17%。2025年更是创下了自1979年以来的最佳年度表 现，涨幅高达 67.5%。面对这轮历史级黄金行情，普通投资者该如何把握布局机遇？ 香港唯一聚焦黄金矿业的ETF——易方达黄金矿（2824），锚定全球四大黄金产业区，精选30只金矿龙 头股布局。基金重仓紫金矿业、招金矿业等港股龙头，同时覆盖纽蒙特、巴里克矿业等海外头部标的。 地域分散+龙头集聚，既规避单一市场风险，又能充分享受全球黄金产业的增长红利，显现配置价值。 推动金价持续走强的宏观因素正在形成共振。一方面，美元体系面临长期结构性压力。年初以来，贸易 政策不确定性上升、地缘政治风险加剧以及政策沟通稳定性下降，削弱了市场对美元长期购买力的信 心。与此同时，美联储已进入降息周期，政策利率下行趋势压低了无风险收益率水平，使得美债、现金 类资产的吸引力持续下降。 1月26日-28 日，全港唯一黄金矿业 ETF——易方达黄金矿（2824）开放申购，一键布局全球黄金矿业 龙头，助你捕捉黄金牛市的机遇。 易方达黄金矿（2824） 跟踪Solactive全球黄金矿业精选指数，该指数自 2023 年 3 月 17 日基日以 ...

证券研究报告 石油天然气 地缘溢价或提前带动油价筑底反弹 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 26 日│中国内地 行业月报 地缘紧张局势再起，油价或已进入筑底反弹阶段 26 年 1 月以来，委内瑞拉、伊朗等地缘紧张局势再次引发市场供应风险担 忧，1 月 23 日 WTI/Brent 期货价格收于 61.07/65.88 美元/桶，较 12 月末上 涨 6.4%/8.3%。我们认为地缘溢价已导致淡季油价筑底反弹，随着需求回升 及全球性储备性累库，26Q2-Q3 油价有望见底上探，叠加美联储降息对需 求拉动，亚非拉地区成品油需求或景气上行，上调 26 年布伦特均价为 65 美元/桶（前值 62 美元/桶）。长期而言，考虑主要产油国边际成本及"利 重于量"诉求，油价中枢存 60 美元/桶底部支撑。具备增产降本能力及天然 气业务增量的能源龙头企业或将显现配置机遇，推荐中国石油（A/H）、中 国海油（A/H）；油价筑底后库存损失减少，叠加炼化有望迎来盈利低迷下 的景气反转，推荐中国石化（A/H）。 需求侧：北半球需求淡季，中国原油进口量同环比显著提升 据 IEA，考虑宏观经济和贸易前景改善，叠加油价下跌及美元走弱，上调 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc prices are expected to have limited downside in the short term, with a long - term strategy of buying on dips [2][31]. - Methanol prices are affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand dynamics, and long positions should be closed opportunistically [3]. - Iron ore faces a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are under pressure, with a strategy of shorting at around 800 [3]. - Palm oil may try to break through 9300 yuan, with short - term upward potential [4]. - Gold prices are supported by geopolitical risks and long - term bullish factors, and long positions above the 20 - day moving average can be held [5][14]. - A - share market has increased volatility, and it is recommended to control portfolio risks and reduce long positions [8]. - Treasury bond futures may remain range - bound in the short term, with a strategy of range - bound operation [10]. - Precious metals may maintain a strong and volatile trend, with different strategies for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium [13][14]. - Copper prices may be affected by CL premium and inventory, with a strategy of holding long positions lightly [18]. - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line, with strategies of selling out - of - the - money put options and shorting on rallies [21]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation, with a strategy of waiting for dips to buy [24]. - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate in a high - level range, with an arbitrage strategy of going long AD03 and shorting AL03 [27]. - Tin prices may be volatile in the short term, with a long - term strategy of buying on dips [35]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in a relatively strong range, with a strategy of range - bound operation [37]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, with a reference range of 14000 - 15000 [41]. - Lithium carbonate prices may be in a strong - range wide - range oscillation, and short - term operations should be cautious [45]. - Polysilicon prices may be high - level oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see [47]. - Industrial silicon prices may oscillate in the range of 8200 - 9200, and attention should be paid to production cuts [50]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range, and the long - spread of hot - rolled and rebar can be held [51]. - Coking coal prices may be oscillating and bearish, with a strategy of shorting and an arbitrage strategy of going long coking coal and shorting coke [58]. - Coke prices may be oscillating and bearish, with a strategy of shorting and an arbitrage strategy of going long coking coal and shorting coke [61]. - Ferrosilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, with a reference range of 5500 - 5900 [63]. - Manganese silicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, with a reference range of 5600 - 6000 [67]. - Meal prices are expected to oscillate, with strong support at the bottom [70]. - Hog prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, with increasing supply pressure [72]. - Corn prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, with support and pressure coexisting [74]. - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [75]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at 14500 [77]. - Egg prices are expected to be stable, and attention should be paid to the digestion ability of high - price goods [80]. - Oil prices are affected by multiple factors, with different trends for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [81][83][84]. - Red date prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory [85]. - Apple prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory [86]. - PX prices may be high - level oscillating in the short term, with a strategy of reducing long positions and being bullish in the medium term [88]. - PTA prices may be high - level oscillating in the short term, with a strategy of reducing long positions and being bullish in the medium term, and a positive spread strategy for TA5 - 9 [90]. - Short - fiber prices follow raw material fluctuations, with a strategy of shorting the processing margin when it is high [92]. - Bottle - chip prices are expected to follow cost fluctuations, with a strategy of paying attention to support and selling out - of - the - money put options [94]. - Ethylene glycol prices have a near - term weak and long - term strong pattern, with a positive spread strategy for EG5 - 9 and a strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options [95]. - Pure benzene prices have limited driving force due to high inventory, and it is recommended to wait and see and short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [97]. - Styrene prices are in a short - term tight supply - demand situation, but the rebound space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see and short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [99]. - LLDPE prices are affected by supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see after taking profits on long positions [100]. - PP prices are in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to hold the PDH profit - expanding position [101]. - Methanol prices are affected by geopolitical and supply - demand factors, and long positions should be closed opportunistically [102]. - Caustic soda prices may have limited rebound height, and attention should be paid to downstream procurement and chlorine price fluctuations [105]. - PVC prices may oscillate widely, with a weak fundamental situation [107]. - Urea prices are expected to oscillate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and inventory reduction [110]. - Soda ash prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [114]. - Glass prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [114]. - Natural rubber prices may have limited upside due to weak demand, with an operating range of 15500 - 16500, and it is recommended to wait and see [117]. - Synthetic rubber prices are short - term strong, with a strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on BR2603 [119][120]. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Zinc**: Zinc prices were strong due to a weak US dollar. Mine shortages supported prices, and refined zinc supply pressure eased. Demand improved, and inventories had room for replenishment. The long - term strategy is to buy on dips [2][31]. - **Methanol**: Methanol futures were oscillating strongly, with a weakening basis. The market was in a situation of weak supply and demand, and long positions should be closed opportunistically [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices were under pressure due to weak supply and demand. It is recommended to short at around 800 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil prices may try to break through 9300 yuan, with short - term upward potential [4]. - **Gold**: Gold prices were supported by geopolitical risks and long - term bullish factors, and long positions above the 20 - day moving average can be held [5]. Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market had increased volatility, and it is recommended to control portfolio risks and reduce long positions [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures may remain range - bound in the short term, with a strategy of range - bound operation [10]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Precious metals may maintain a strong and volatile trend. Gold long positions above the 20 - day moving average can be held; silver can be bought on dips; platinum and palladium can be bought on dips [13][14]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices were affected by CL premium and inventory. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [18]. - **Alumina**: Alumina prices are expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line, with strategies of selling out - of - the - money put options and shorting on rallies [21]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation, with a strategy of waiting for dips to buy [24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate in a high - level range, with an arbitrage strategy of going long AD03 and shorting AL03 [27]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are expected to have limited downside in the short term, with a long - term strategy of buying on dips [28][31]. - **Tin**: Tin prices may be volatile in the short term, with a long - term strategy of buying on dips [35]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in a relatively strong range, with a strategy of range - bound operation [37]. - **Stainless Steel**: Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, with a reference range of 14000 - 15000 [41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices may be in a strong - range wide - range oscillation, and short - term operations should be cautious [45]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon prices may be high - level oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see [47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Industrial silicon prices may oscillate in the range of 8200 - 9200, and attention should be paid to production cuts [50]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range, and the long - spread of hot - rolled and rebar can be held [51]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore faces a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are under pressure [53]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal prices may be oscillating and bearish, with a strategy of shorting and an arbitrage strategy of going long coking coal and shorting coke [58]. - **Coke**: Coke prices may be oscillating and bearish, with a strategy of shorting and an arbitrage strategy of going long coking coal and shorting coke [61]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Ferrosilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, with a reference range of 5500 - 5900 [63]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Manganese silicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, with a reference range of 5600 - 6000 [67]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products - **Meal**: Meal prices are expected to oscillate, with strong support at the bottom [70]. - **Hog**: Hog prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, with increasing supply pressure [72]. - **Corn**: Corn prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, with support and pressure coexisting [74]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [75]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at 14500 [77]. - **Egg**: Egg prices are expected to be stable, and attention should be paid to the digestion ability of high - price goods [80]. - **Oil**: Oil prices are affected by multiple factors, with different trends for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [81][83][84]. - **Red Date**: Red date prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory [85]. - **Apple**: Apple prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory [86]. Commodity Futures - Energy Chemicals - **PX**: PX prices may be high - level oscillating in the short term, with a strategy of reducing long positions and being bullish in the medium term [88]. - **PTA**: PTA prices may be high - level oscillating in the short term, with a strategy of reducing long positions and being bullish in the medium term, and a positive spread strategy for TA5 - 9 [90]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber prices follow raw material fluctuations, with a strategy of shorting the processing margin when it is high [92]. - **Bottle - chip**: Bottle - chip prices are expected to follow cost fluctuations, with a strategy of paying attention to support and selling out - of - the - money put options [94]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol prices have a near - term weak and long - term strong pattern, with a positive spread strategy for EG5 - 9 and a strategy of selling out - of - the money put options [95]. - **Pure Benzene**: Pure benzene prices have limited driving force due to high inventory, and it is recommended to wait and see and short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [97]. - **Styrene**: Styrene prices are in a short - term tight supply - demand situation, but the rebound space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see and short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [99]. - **LLDPE**: LLDPE prices are affected by supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see after taking profits on long positions [100]. - **PP**: PP prices are in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to hold the PDH profit - expanding position [101]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices are affected by geopolitical and supply - demand factors, and long positions should be closed opportunistically [102]. - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda prices may have limited rebound height, and attention should be paid to downstream procurement and chlorine price fluctuations [105]. - **PVC**: PVC prices may oscillate widely, with a weak fundamental situation [107]. - **Urea**: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and inventory reduction [110]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [114]. - **Glass**: Glass prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [114]. - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber prices may have limited upside due to weak demand, with an operating range of 15500 - 16500, and it is recommended to wait and see [117]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Synthetic rubber prices are short - term strong, with a strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on BR2603 [119][120].