1月26日，黄金和白银价格再创新高。伦敦现货黄金价格盘中一度突破5100美元／盎司，年内涨幅超 18%；伦敦现货白银价格盘中一度突破110美元／盎司，年内涨幅超50%。今年以来，贵金属价格震荡 走高，笔者认为，核心驱动来自贸易冲突、全球央行购金、地缘风险三方面。 最后，地缘风险上升使得贵金属获得了较高的风险溢价。美国年初对委内瑞拉发起大规模军事行动，强 行控制委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人并将他们带至美国，进一步强化了美国所谓"门罗主义"叙事，而争 夺关键矿产资源的目的也令贵金属直接受益。伊朗方面，美国官员表示，尽管已撤回对伊朗的打击计 划，但特朗普仍要求幕僚提供所谓的"决定性"军事选项。相关讨论正值美国向中东派遣航空母舰与喷气 式战斗机之际。这些部署可能标志着更大规模军事集结的开始，若特朗普决定对伊朗实施打击，此举将 为打击行动提供所需火力。美国官员透露，特朗普在描述希望美国行动对伊朗产生何种效果时，反复使 用了"决定性"一词。这一措辞促使美国五角大楼和白宫的幕僚细化了一系列供特朗普选择的方案，其中 一些方案旨在推动伊朗政权更迭。格陵兰岛方面，特朗普自去年上任以来曾多次扬言要得到格陵兰岛。 1月20日，美国总统 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.09% to close at 4132.61 points, with a daily high of 4160.99 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.85% to 14316.64 points, reaching a high of 14532.9 points [1] - The ChiNext Index dropped by 0.91% to 3319.15 points, with a peak of 3367.99 points [1] ETF Market Performance Overall Performance - The median return of stock ETFs was -0.4% [2] - The highest return among scale index ETFs was 5.37% for the Shenwan Lingshin SSE 50 ETF [2] - The highest return in industry index ETFs was 6.23% for the China Tai Index Nonferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF [2] - The highest return in strategy index ETFs was 3.17% for the Morgan SSE 300 Free Cash Flow ETF [2] - The highest return in style index ETFs was 2.1% for the Yinhua SSE 300 Value ETF [2] - The highest return in theme index ETFs was 8.67% for the Huaxia SSE Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF [2] Top Gainers and Losers - The top three ETFs with the highest gains were: - Huaxia SSE Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF (8.67%) [5] - Ping An SSE Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF (8.57%) [5] - ICBC Credit Suisse SSE Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF (8.45%) [5] - The top three ETFs with the largest declines were: - Fortune SSE Satellite Industry ETF (-8.16%) [6] - China Merchants SSE Satellite Industry ETF (-7.97%) [6] - GF SSE Satellite Industry ETF (-7.91%) [6] Fund Flows - The top three ETFs with the highest inflows were: - Penghua SSE Segmented Chemical Industry Theme ETF (14.47 billion) [8] - Southern SSE Shenwan Nonferrous Metals ETF (11.45 billion) [8] - Guotai SSE Semiconductor Materials Equipment Theme ETF (11.26 billion) [8] - The top three ETFs with the largest outflows were: - Huatai-PB SSE 300 ETF (183.76 billion) [9] - Huaxia SSE 300 ETF (147.83 billion) [9] - Jiashi SSE 300 ETF (136.13 billion) [9] Margin Trading Overview - The top three ETFs with the highest margin buy amounts were: - Huatai-PB SSE 300 ETF (1.114 billion) [11] - E Fund ChiNext ETF (540 million) [11] - Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech 50 ETF (516 million) [11] - The top three ETFs with the highest margin sell amounts were: - Southern SSE 1000 ETF (68.87 million) [12] - Southern SSE 500 ETF (54.47 million) [12] - Huaxia SSE 1000 ETF (43.57 million) [12] Institutional Insights - Dongwu Futures indicated that gold prices still have upward momentum due to ongoing de-dollarization, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases [14] - Guotai Futures noted that the annual increase in gold prices for 2025 is expected to reach the highest level since 1979, with potential for further upward movement [15]

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical tensions are increasing, accelerating the trend of de-dollarization, which has catalyzed a "non-linear" breakout in gold prices [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Influences - Recent geopolitical statements, including those from Canada, have contributed to the surge in gold prices [1] - Countries such as Denmark and Sweden have announced reductions or complete divestments from U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - Nations like Cambodia, Indonesia, Egypt, and India are moving their gold reserves to Shanghai/Hong Kong vaults or repatriating them [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, increasing overseas uncertainties, and the global trend of de-dollarization are expected to support gold's long-term price trajectory [1] - Central banks and issuers like Tether are continuing to purchase gold, reinforcing the bullish outlook for the metal [1] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to consider participating in gold during subsequent price corrections and to accumulate positions gradually [1] - Direct investment in physical gold and tax-exempt gold ETFs (518800) are recommended, along with gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain [1]

2026 年 1 月 27 日星期二 广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 每日精选： 每日重点关注品种逻辑解析 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、硅铁、锰硅 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PX、PTA、乙二醇、短纤、瓶片、纯苯、苯乙烯、LLDPE、PP、甲醇、烧 碱、PVC、尿素、纯碱、玻璃、天然橡胶、合成橡胶 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020- ...

澳洲联储将于2月3日公布货币政策决议，交易员当前正聚焦本周公布的通胀数据，为澳元交易押注提供 依据。调查显示，澳大利亚上月核心消费者通胀率同比上涨3.3%，突破了澳洲联储2%-3%的目标区 间。 受央行鹰派前景影响，澳大利亚政策敏感度较高的3年期国债收益率已升至2023年11月以来的最高水 平。除高收益率外，受美国政府再次面临停摆担忧、"去美元化"趋势持续升温的影响，澳债的顶级信用 评级也吸引了大量投资者涌入。 澳大利亚联邦银行驻悉尼策略师Carol Kong表示："尽管地缘政治和贸易紧张局势再度升温，但市场对 美元的悲观情绪、澳洲联储的加息预期以及金属价格走高，共同支撑了澳元的韧性。" 智通财经APP获悉，澳洲联储的鹰派货币政策立场，叠加美日联合出手捍卫日元的预期对美元形成压 制，澳元汇率正逼近三年来的最强水平。 2026年以来，澳元兑美元汇率已累计上涨近4%，目前报约0.69，跻身今年迄今十国集团货币涨幅前 三。澳大利亚联邦银行和西太平洋银行的策略师均预测，澳元有望在3月底前升至0.70，这一价位上一 次出现还是在2023年初。 市场押注澳大利亚下月将加息，澳债收益率目前位居发达国家之首，成为澳元的重要支 ...

Group 1 - Silver prices experienced significant volatility on January 27, with a peak around 12.22 before stabilizing at approximately 12.14, reflecting a 6.40% increase [1][2] - The trading volume reached 35,100 contracts, with a total transaction value of 427.164 million [2] - Since the market rally began on September 1 of the previous year, the cumulative increase in silver prices has reached 254.55%, with the highest price point achieved on January 27 [2] Group 2 - The demand for physical assets is rising due to escalating geopolitical tensions and a trend towards de-dollarization, which supports the market for silver [3] - The demand for silver in sectors such as photovoltaic silver paste and AI data centers continues to grow, providing additional support for silver prices [3] - Despite an expected loss in 2025 due to subsidiary issues and increased fair value losses, the company has seen an increase in both product volume and price, although these factors have not fully mitigated the negative impacts [3]

Paolini认为，关税威胁言论主要被视为策略性工具，对股票市场的持久影响有限，但对外汇的指向性则 更为清晰。 美国政策越来越着眼于推高亚洲货币汇率，而不是压缩贸易规模。 以大多数指标衡量，美元仍处于被高估状态。美联储降息、美国经济增长放缓以及去美元化趋势，均对 美元构成下行压力。 日本当局似乎也在容忍甚至鼓励日元走强，这强化了亚洲整体外币市场的升值动能。 预计汇率波动产生的宏观效应将比贸易措施更为持久，而股票盈利受到的影响应仍可控。 责任编辑：于健 SF069 百达资产管理首席策略师Luca Paolini表示，美国最新一轮关税威胁，正在加剧更深层次的外汇的市场 格局转变：美元料将进一步走弱，而亚洲货币将面临持续升值压力。 Paolini认为，关税威胁言论主要被视为策略性工具，对股票市场的持久影响有限，但对外汇的指向性则 更为清晰。 美国政策越来越着眼于推高亚洲货币汇率，而不是压缩贸易规模。 以大多数指标衡量，美元仍处于被高估状态。美联储降息、美国经济增长放缓以及去美元化趋势，均对 美元构成下行压力。 日本当局似乎也在容忍甚至鼓励日元走强，这强化了亚洲整体外币市场的升值动能。 预计汇率波动产生的宏观效应将比 ...

文 | 中国金融网(CFN) 大河 2026年1月26日，国际贵金属市场迎来历史性时刻：伦敦黄金现货最高触及5111.17美元/盎司，COMEX黄金期货峰值达5107.9美元/盎司，双双突破5100美元/ 盎司关键关口。然而，暴涨背后是极致震荡——现货黄金日内冲高2.5%后大幅回落，尾盘跌破5000美元/盎司，收涨仅0.26%；现货白银波动更为剧烈，日内 涨幅一度高达14%至117美元/盎司，最终转跌报102.8美元/盎司。这场"狂欢式震荡"不仅凸显贵金属市场的狂热情绪，更释放出多重风险升级信号，为投资者 敲响警钟。 关口告破：贵金属市场的极端行情演绎 金银价格走势分化显著，白银弹性远超黄金。今年以来银价涨幅已超50%，大幅跑赢金价17%的年内涨幅，核心源于供需矛盾与资金推动的双重叠加，但其 波动幅度也数倍于黄金，日内从暴涨14%到尾盘转跌，凸显高位投机资金的快进快出。 波动率拉满：多重因素交织下的市场博弈 贵金属高位波动率飙升，本质是短期避险情绪、中期供需格局与长期货币逻辑交织博弈的结果，而资金面的极致涌入进一步放大了波动弹性。 短期核心驱动源于避险买盘的脉冲式涌入。当前全球地缘政治与金融风险交织，美国对伊 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 27 日 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：风格逆转 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：资金小幅收敛，债市窄幅波动 4 | | 蛋白粕：产量维持高位 | 盘面仍有压力 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：外盘走势现分歧 | 郑糖价格底部震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：中加菜籽贸易扰动，油脂震荡上涨 6 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货偏强，盘面冲高回落 7 | | | 生猪：供应压力增加 | 现货继续下行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 9 | | | 苹果：节前走货加速，春节备货积极性增加 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：情绪较为乐观 | 棉价有所支撑 11 | | 钢材：需求边际转弱，钢价延续震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面乏善可陈，关注资金扰动 13 | | 铁矿：终端需求低位，矿价震荡运行 14 | | 铁合金：估值偏低存在修复需求，短期震荡偏强 15 | | 金银：消息面扰动叠加技术性调整 金银现"过山车"行情 16 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold has entered a historic phase with prices surpassing $5,100 per ounce, driven by systemic concerns over the stability of sovereign currency credit systems, evolving from traditional safe-haven trading to a "currency devaluation trade" [1][3] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - International gold prices have seen a significant increase, with a 70% rise in 2025, marking the largest annual increase since the 1979 oil crisis, and a further 15% increase in 2026 [2] - The speed of gold price increases has accelerated, with the time taken to rise from $4,000 to $5,000 being just over three months, compared to longer durations for previous price increases [2] - Analysts indicate that the current gold price dynamics are challenging traditional valuation models, as the dollar's credit foundation is being undermined [5][6] Group 2: Market Drivers - Three main factors are driving the current rise in gold prices: ongoing geopolitical risk premiums, increased uncertainty in U.S. policies, and a weakening dollar due to selling pressure on U.S. Treasuries [3] - The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating, with the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves dropping significantly, indicating a shift in global capital markets [4] Group 3: Company Performance - Gold mining companies are experiencing substantial profit increases due to rising gold prices, with companies like Zhaojin Gold and Hunan Gold projecting significant profit growth for 2025 [4] - Major gold mining firms are seeing their stock prices rise sharply, driven by both valuation recovery and performance expectations [4] Group 4: Analyst Predictions - Analysts are raising gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs increasing its year-end target from $4,900 to $5,400 per ounce, and Bank of America projecting a target of $6,000 per ounce [6] - Historical patterns suggest that gold prices could continue to rise significantly, with potential targets reaching $6,600 per ounce by 2026 [6] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The current market environment suggests that high volatility in precious metals may become the norm, with prices reflecting strategic capital behavior rather than just fundamental supply and demand [8] - Investors are advised to maintain a cautious approach, particularly in light of potential market corrections and the need for strategic asset allocation [8]