Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of treasury bond futures is to maintain a sideways consolidation in the short term. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the medium - to - long - term expectation of a loose monetary environment still exists. The market driving force is weak, and there is a divergence in the trends among different varieties [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is sideways, the medium - term view is sideways, and the intraday view is weak. The reference view is sideways consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the medium - to - long - term loose expectation still exists [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is sideways, and the reference view is sideways consolidation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures continued to move in a sideways consolidation yesterday, with a divergence in the trends among varieties. The market driving force is weak. The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged yesterday, resulting in a weak short - term expectation of interest rate cuts. The latest economic data such as consumption, investment, and exports have weakened, indicating a lack of effective domestic demand. A relatively loose monetary environment is needed in the medium - to - long - term to stabilize domestic demand, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, there is no strong need for the policy side to increase efforts this year, and the possibility of a short - term policy interest rate cut is low, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for treasury bond futures [5].

美联储12月降息预期骤降，日韩股市跟随隔夜美股科技股下跌。A股开盘，三大指数集体低开，沪指低 开0.87%报3896.66点， 深证成指低开1.76%， 创业板指低开2.07%。盘面上， 锂矿、电池、 存储芯片等 板块调整。 ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年11月21日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 黄金 1、基本面：美国9月非农新增就业人口11.9万大超预期，金价回落；美国三大股指 全线收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率 跌4.83个基点报4.085%；美元指数涨0.10%报100.22，离岸人民币对美元小幅升值报 7.1179；COMEX黄金期货跌0.15%报4076.7美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货932.56，现货930.2，基差-2.36，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单90426千克，增加810千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market in November saw a decline in both supply and demand, with a larger decline in supply. However, due to the large supply base and the replenishment of the spot market by cancelled warehouse receipts, there is still pressure to accumulate inventory. In December, the decline in production is expected to narrow, but if the organic silicon industry reduces production, the inventory accumulation pressure will increase. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and short positions can gradually take profits at low prices [1]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is expected to stabilize. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. In the short term, the supply of polysilicon is relatively high, but the long - term supply - demand balance driven by the exit of backward production capacity will support the price. The futures price has fallen back to a reasonable range, and attention should be paid to the support level, as well as the establishment of platform companies, production control, demand changes, and the digestion of warehouse receipts after the November contract cancellation [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The market maintains a supply - demand surplus pattern, with short - term supply pressure increasing. The price is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction trends of high - cost enterprises [3][4]. - **Aluminum**: The price will fluctuate between macro - level positive factors and weak fundamentals in the short term. The medium - term supply shortage pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to downstream start - up changes, inventory reduction rhythms, and overseas policy trends [3][4]. Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained. Existing long positions can be held, and attention should be paid to macro - level changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [6][7]. Zinc - The fundamentals provide limited support for the continuous upward movement of zinc prices. In the short term, it may still be volatile. An upward breakthrough requires an improvement in demand, and a downward breakthrough requires continuous inventory accumulation. The export of zinc ingots may boost domestic zinc prices, and the short - term main contract reference range is 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [9]. Copper - The market expects the probability of an interest rate cut in December to decline, and the copper price is oscillating weakly. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center. The main contract reference range is 85,000 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to changes in demand and overseas interest rate cut expectations [10]. Nickel - The macro - level exerts some pressure, and the improvement in fundamentals is limited. The medium - term supply is abundant, which restricts the upward space of the price. The short - term driving force is weak, and the main contract reference range is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - level expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [12]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - level driving forces are insufficient, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. The supply - side pressure from steel mills' production schedules and social inventory remains, and demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to steel mills' production reduction and nickel - iron prices [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is in a situation of both supply and demand growth. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the main contract LC2601 has risen. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large enterprises, changes in demand after the peak season, and the possible acceleration of the release of upstream projects at high prices. Long positions established earlier can consider partial profit - taking [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, while the futures price decreased. The basis of some varieties changed significantly [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts showed various changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: National and regional production, as well as the national start - up rate, showed different trends. The production of some downstream products also changed, and the inventory of industrial silicon showed an overall upward trend [1]. Polysilicon - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, the futures price fell, and the arbitrage window closed. The component price gradually recovered [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly and monthly data showed that polysilicon production increased slightly, silicon wafer production decreased slightly, and the inventories of both increased [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price and Spread**: The price of aluminum increased slightly, and the price of alumina in some regions decreased. The spreads and premiums also changed [3][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production increased in October. The start - up rates of aluminum processing industries showed different trends, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained stable [3][4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of tin remained unchanged, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased significantly [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts showed various changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Tin ore imports decreased in September, while refined tin production increased in October. The import and export volumes of refined tin changed slightly [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of zinc increased slightly, and the spreads and import - export profits changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: Refined zinc production increased in October, and the start - up rates of zinc processing industries showed different trends. The inventory of LME increased, and the domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased [9]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: The price of copper increased slightly, and the spreads, premiums, and import - export profits changed [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: Electrolytic copper production and import volume decreased in October. The start - up rates of copper rod production showed different trends, and the inventory of different types of copper changed [10]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: The price of nickel increased slightly, and the spreads and import - export profits changed [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production and import volume increased. The inventory of SHFE and social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of stainless steel decreased slightly, and the spreads changed [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly, the import volume increased, and the export volume decreased. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the spreads changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate increased in October, and the inventory decreased. The production capacity and start - up rate increased [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each sector [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold Market**: On Thursday, precious metals fluctuated, with London gold constrained below $4,100. The US September non - farm payrolls data was mixed, and Fed officials had different views on interest rate cuts. Domestic gold ETFs continued to see inflows. The recommended trading strategy is to buy at the lower support level [2]. - **Silver Market**: The tight supply situation is gradually easing. It is recommended to gradually reduce long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated downward. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the market anticipates a tight supply - demand situation for electrolytic copper next year. With unclear macro - drivers, the recommended strategy is to wait and see [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased slightly. The smelters are operating at high loads, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [3]. - **Alumina**: The price of the alumina main contract decreased slightly. Some alumina plants are undergoing early maintenance or reducing production. The supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to change, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [3][4]. - **Zinc**: The price of the Shanghai zinc contract decreased slightly. Supply is differentiated between domestic and overseas markets, and demand is weak. The recommended strategy is to short at high prices [4]. - **Lead**: The price of the Shanghai lead contract decreased slightly. The supply of lead concentrate is in short supply, and demand is affected by high prices. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract decreased significantly. Supply decreased, and demand is supported by the polysilicon industry. With the planned production cut, the price has strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions and be cautious about short - selling [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract decreased. Supply is expected to increase, and the inventory reduction speed has slowed down. It is recommended to try long positions at low prices during the callback [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of the main contract decreased. Supply decreased slightly, and downstream production decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [5]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. The supply - demand situation of steel is weak, with significant structural differentiation. It is recommended to hold short positions in the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract, and the reference range for RB01 is 3040 - 3090 [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. The supply - demand situation is weakening marginally. It is recommended to hold short positions in the iron ore 2605 contract, and the reference range for I01 is 760 - 795 [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. The supply - demand situation is weakening, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to hold short positions in the coking coal 2605 contract, and the reference range for JM01 is 1100 - 1140 [6]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term CBOT soybean price is weak. The global supply - demand situation is gradually improving. The US soybean price is expected to fluctuate, and the domestic price may weaken in the short term [7]. - **Corn**: The corn futures price is running weakly. The short - term supply is tight, but the long - term price is expected to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions [7]. - **Edible Oils**: The Malaysian palm oil price decreased. The near - term supply is high, and the long - term supply is expected to decrease seasonally. The P contract is in a contango structure, and it is difficult to determine the unilateral price [7]. - **Sugar**: The price of the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract decreased slightly. Internationally, the Indian export quota affects the price, and the long - term global production is expected to increase. Domestically, the price is expected to follow the international trend. It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton price fluctuates weakly, and the domestic cotton price fluctuates narrowly. It is recommended to wait and see, with a range - trading strategy between 13400 - 13600 yuan/ton [7]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures price rebounded, and the spot price decreased. The supply pressure decreased, and the demand weakened. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7][8]. - **Hogs**: The hog futures price is running weakly, and the spot price increased in most areas. The supply is still abundant, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract fluctuated slightly. The supply pressure is rising but at a slower pace, and the demand has weakened. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or conduct a bear - spread [9]. - **PTA**: The PX supply is balanced and loose, and the PTA is in inventory accumulation. It is recommended to take profits on PX long positions and short the PTA processing margin in the far - month contracts [9]. - **PP**: The main contract decreased slightly. The supply pressure is rising, and the demand is weak. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices or conduct a bear - spread [9]. - **MEG**: The supply may decrease in the short term but increase in the long term. The demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices above the 01 contract [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price weakened. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it can be shorted at high prices if the Russian oil production cut is less than 500,000 barrels per day [10]. - **Styrene**: The main contract rebounded slightly. The short - term supply - demand situation has improved, but the long - term situation is still weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the upside limited by the import window [10].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility, with strong earnings from Nvidia initially boosting market sentiment, but ultimately all three major indices closed lower due to renewed valuation concerns and diminished expectations for interest rate cuts [1][4]. Market Performance - The Dow Jones index fell by 0.84% to 45,752.26 points, the S&P 500 index decreased by 1.56% to 6,538.76 points, and the Nasdaq index dropped by 2.15% to 22,078.05 points [3]. - Nvidia's stock rose by 5% during the day but closed down by 3%, despite CEO Jensen Huang's comments on strong demand for the Blackwell chip and denial of an AI bubble [3][4]. Employment Data Impact - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for September increased by 119,000, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 52,000, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.4%, slightly above the forecast of 4.3% [3][4]. - This strong employment data has further lowered expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December now below 40% [4]. Sector Performance - Walmart was one of the few bright spots, with its stock rising over 6% after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter sales and revenue, partly due to growth in its e-commerce business [4][5]. - The market is witnessing a shift of funds from high-valuation tech stocks to defensive companies, as indicated by Walmart's performance [5]. Technology Stocks - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia down 2.97%, Microsoft down 1.60%, Apple down 0.86%, Google down 1.15%, Amazon down 2.49%, Meta down 0.19%, Tesla down 2.21%, Broadcom down 2.14%, and Oracle down 6.58% [5]. - Chinese concept stocks also fell, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 3.26%, Alibaba down 3.53%, JD down 1.68%, Pinduoduo down 4.31%, NIO down 6.09%, Xpeng down 5.10%, Li Auto down 2.32%, Bilibili down 4.54%, Baidu down 4.36%, NetEase up 0.40%, Tencent Music down 5.61%, and Pony.ai down 4.86% [5].

Market Overview - On November 21, US stock markets experienced significant volatility, with the Nasdaq initially rising over 2% due to Nvidia's strong earnings report, but ultimately closing down over 2% as valuation concerns resurfaced and interest rate cut expectations were further dampened [1][3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.84% to 45,752.26 points, the S&P 500 dropped 1.56% to 6,538.76 points, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased 2.15% to 22,078.05 points [3] Nvidia Performance - Nvidia's stock rose by 5% during the day but closed down 3%. CEO Jensen Huang emphasized strong demand for the Blackwell chip and denied the existence of an AI bubble, yet market concerns prevailed [3] - Analyst Jeff Kilburg from KKM Financial noted that Nvidia's momentum is being overshadowed by declining expectations for a December interest rate cut, which was previously anticipated [3] Employment Data Impact - The US non-farm payrolls report for September showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly above the market estimate of 52,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.4%, slightly above the expected 4.3% [3] - This strong employment data has contributed to lowering expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a December cut now below 40% [3] Retail Sector Highlights - Walmart was one of the few stocks to perform well, with its shares rising over 6% after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter sales and revenue, partly due to growth in its e-commerce business [3][4] Technology Sector Performance - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia down 2.97%, Microsoft down 1.60%, Apple down 0.86%, Google down 1.15%, Amazon down 2.49%, Meta down 0.19%, Tesla down 2.21%, Broadcom down 2.14%, and Oracle down 6.58% [5] - Chinese stocks also fell, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 3.26%, Alibaba down 3.53%, JD.com down 1.68%, Pinduoduo down 4.31%, NIO down 6.09%, Xpeng down 5.10%, Li Auto down 2.32%, Bilibili down 4.54%, Baidu down 4.36%, NetEase up 0.40%, Tencent Music down 5.61%, and Pony.ai down 4.86% [5] Company News - Google launched a new image generation and editing model called NANO BANANA PRO, which is designed to produce clearer images and support more precise and readable text in multiple languages [5] - SoftBank plans to invest up to $3 billion to retrofit an electric vehicle factory in Lordstown, Ohio, to produce equipment for OpenAI's upcoming data center, making SoftBank one of OpenAI's largest investors [6] - Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet, announced the expansion of its autonomous ride-hailing service to Minneapolis, Tampa, and New Orleans [7] - Verizon announced it will lay off over 13,000 employees as part of a plan to streamline operations and reduce external labor costs, indicating that every department will undergo some level of change [8]

美东时间周四，美股市场上演过山车式行情，尽管英伟达强劲财报一度显著提振了市场情绪，纳指一度 涨超2%，但随着估值担忧卷土重来，以及降息预期进一步受挫，三大指数悉数收跌。 其中，道指跌0.84%，纳指跌2.15%，标普跌1.55%。微软跌超1%，谷歌跌超1%，亚马逊跌超2%，特斯 拉跌超2%，沃尔玛涨超6%，甲骨文跌超6%。 英伟达盘中一度上涨5%，但最终收跌3%。虽然英伟达CEO黄仁勋强调Blackwell芯片的需求"爆棚"，并 否认AI泡沫的存在，但担忧情绪仍占上风。 热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌3.26%。阿里跌超3%，拼多多跌超4%，携程跌超3%， 京东跌超1%，百度跌超4%，腾讯音乐跌超5%，小鹏跌超4%，理想跌超2%，蔚来跌超6%，满帮跌超 7%，哔哩哔哩跌超4%。 01 非农数据 "爆冷" 大增，降息预期直接 "腰斩" 就在市场为科技股涨跌纠结时，美国劳工统计局公布的 9 月非农数据给了市场一记 "重锤"。 数据显示，美国 9 月非农就业意外大增 11.9 万人，远远超出市场预估的 5.2 万；9 月失业率为 4.4%， 略高于预估的 4.3%。 报告发布后，美国股指期货涨幅扩大，美 ...

热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌3.26%。阿里跌超3%，拼多多跌超4%，携程跌超 3%，京东跌超1%，百度跌超4%，腾讯音乐跌超5%，小鹏跌超4%，理想跌超2%，蔚来跌超 6%，满帮跌超7%，哔哩哔哩跌超4%。 01 非农数据 "爆冷" 大增，降息预期直接 "腰斩" 就在市场为科技股涨跌纠结时，美国劳工统计局公布的 9 月非农数据给了市场一记 "重锤"。 美东时间周四，美股市场上演过山车式行情，尽管英伟达强劲财报一度显著提振了市场情绪，纳指 一度涨超2%，但随着估值担忧卷土重来，以及降息预期进一步受挫，三大指数悉数收跌。 其中，道指跌0.84%，纳指跌2.15%，标普跌1.55%。微软跌超1%，谷歌跌超1%，亚马逊跌超 2%，特斯拉跌超2%，沃尔玛涨超6%，甲骨文跌超6%。 英伟达盘中一度上涨5%，但最终收跌3%。虽然英伟达CEO黄仁勋强调Blackwell芯片的需求"爆 棚"，并否认AI泡沫的存在，但担忧情绪仍占上风。 他甚至认为，在美联储 9 月降息后，2025 年只需再降息一次，这番言论更是给降息预期浇了一盆 冷水。 02 达利欧直言 AI 有泡沫，但 "刺破点" 未到不用急着逃 一边是降息 ...

Group 1 - The UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) has decreased from 3.8% in September to 3.6% in October, marking the first decline since May [1] - The slowdown in gas and electricity price increases is identified as a key factor contributing to the overall decline in inflation [1] - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, has slightly decreased from 3.5% to 3.4%, while the service price inflation rate has also dropped from 4.7% to 4.5% [1] Group 2 - The recent inflation data increases the likelihood of the Bank of England implementing a rate cut in December, with market expectations rising following the decline in inflation [1] - Economic growth is slowing, and the conditions for a rate cut are deemed favorable, although the inflation rate remains significantly above the Bank's target of 2% [2] - The UK Chancellor emphasized the importance of maintaining fiscal prudence in the upcoming budget to avoid exacerbating inflation and to alleviate the cost of living pressures [2]