Group 1: Service Trade and Economic Policies - Shenzhen is set to gradually relax or eliminate restrictions on service trade under cross-border delivery and overseas consumption models, aiming to enhance the quality of service consumption and expand the openness of the service industry [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies and introduce incremental reserve policies in response to changing circumstances, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to support economic development and social stability [3] Group 2: Financial Operations and Market Liquidity - The People's Bank of China conducted a 300 billion yuan MLF operation to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, resulting in a net injection of 118 billion yuan for June, marking the fourth consecutive month of increased liquidity [2] Group 3: Industry Developments and Trends - CITIC Securities reports that the price of DDR4 memory has exceeded expectations, with a forecast for continued price increases into Q3 2025, indicating a potential turning point for profitability among storage module manufacturers [5] - The Yangtze River Delta region's foreign trade has surpassed 100 trillion yuan, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality, with a 5.2% year-on-year increase in imports and exports in the first five months of the year [6] - The telecommunications sector reported a total revenue of 748.8 billion yuan in the first five months, reflecting a 1.4% year-on-year growth [7] Group 4: Technological Advancements and Standards - China is leading the development of the world's first international standard system for quantum-resistant network security protocols in the data communication field, with ongoing efforts to establish guidelines and frameworks for secure communication [9] Group 5: Marine Economy Initiatives - Shanghai is planning to introduce the "Shanghai Marine Economy Promotion Regulations" and explore the establishment of a marine industry development group to enhance financial support and optimize the development of the marine industry [10] - The city aims to promote the development of marine intelligent robots and create a product matrix for marine intelligent equipment, focusing on advanced underwater and surface robotic systems [11]

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market shows mixed trends across different sectors. The stock index market has a positive performance, with most indices rising. The bond market is expected to be volatile, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. The commodity market, including metals, energy, and agricultural products, also has various trends influenced by factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. [2][7] - It is recommended to take different trading strategies according to different market conditions, such as buying certain stock index futures on dips, and being cautious in the commodity market with a focus on specific opportunities and risks. [4][5] Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw most indices rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.04%, the ChiNext Index up 3.11%, etc. The trading volume increased by 188.2 billion yuan. The overseas geopolitical risk has cooled down, and domestic policies are expected to support the economy. It is recommended to buy IH or IF futures on dips and consider IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity". [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: On Wednesday, most treasury bond futures had a slight decline. The economic data shows some disturbances and structural differentiation. The central bank's liquidity injection maintains a loose attitude, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. [6][7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices rose. The market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has increased, and the change in the bank regulatory bill is beneficial to silver. It is recommended to buy silver on dips. [8][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price oscillated and rebounded. The overseas geopolitical situation has eased, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut suppresses the sentiment. The copper raw material market is tight, and the low inventory may support the price to rise, but the weakening domestic consumption limits the upside. The price is expected to oscillate and rise, and attention should be paid to the import loss for arbitrage. [12] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price oscillated. The cost - driving force has weakened, and the demand expectation has improved. The low inventory may push the price up, but the price increase and the off - season effect limit the upside. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [13] - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose slightly. The zinc industry is in the process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots, with a high expectation of zinc ingot output. However, some factors affect the inventory and production, and the geopolitical situation may affect the zinc ore export. [15] - **Lead**: The lead price rose. The lead acid battery export growth has slowed down, and the downstream consumption is weak. But the high - concentration long - position in the LME lead July contract and the reduction of domestic inventory make the price run relatively strongly, with limited upside for Shanghai lead. [16] - **Nickel**: The nickel price rebounded slightly. The cost of downstream iron plants is under pressure, and the nickel ore price may fall. The nickel iron price is also under pressure, and the refined nickel supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, with a risk of price decline. [17] - **Tin**: The tin price fell slightly. The supply of tin ore is short - term tight, but the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate in a certain range. [18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated slightly. The marginal variables in supply, demand, and cost are limited, and it is recommended to operate cautiously. [19] - **Alumina**: The alumina price rose slightly. The alumina production capacity is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short on rallies. [20] - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price rose slightly. The market supply exceeds demand, and the demand is weak. The planned production cut by steel mills eases the supply - demand contradiction, but the price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. [21][23] Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The steel price oscillated. The real estate demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The terminal demand is weakening, and the market confidence is low. Attention should be paid to policy trends, demand repair, and cost support. [25][26] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was slightly down. The supply has increased, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is in a low - volatility state with support from iron production and pressure from supply. [27][28] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price is expected to be weakly volatile due to the lack of real - estate demand boost. The soda ash supply is expected to be loose, and the price is also expected to be weakly volatile. [29] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. They are still in a downward trend, and the fundamentals point to a downward price. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely, and attention should be paid to price fluctuations caused by market sentiment. [30][31][33] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price rebounded. The supply is in an oversupply situation, and the demand is weak. The price may continue to decline, and it is not recommended to buy on dips. [35][36][37] Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The rubber price oscillated. The bulls expect a price increase due to potential production cuts, while the bears are concerned about weak demand. The tire开工率 is rising, and it is recommended to take a neutral approach and focus on short - term operations. [39][40][43] - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price fell slightly. The geopolitical risk has been released, and the price is in a reasonable range. It is not recommended to short further. [44][45][46] - **Methanol**: The methanol price rose. The market is expected to return to the supply - demand fundamentals, with high domestic supply and potential weakening demand. It is recommended to wait and see. [47] - **Urea**: The urea price rose. The supply is high, and the demand is relatively weak. The price is expected to have no clear trend in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. [48] - **Styrene**: The styrene price is expected to be oscillated and bearish. The cost is relatively stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. [49] - **PVC**: The PVC price rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to decline steadily under the background of geopolitical easing. [51][52] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. The inventory is accumulating, and it is recommended to short on rallies with caution. [53] - **PTA**: The PTA price rose. The supply is expected to increase after the end of the maintenance season, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long following PX. [54] - **Para - xylene**: The PX price fell. The supply and demand are in a dynamic balance, and the price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long following the decline. [55][56] - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The PE price rose slightly. The supply pressure may ease, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate. [57] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The PP price rose slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The price is expected to be bearish in June. [58] Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The hog price showed mixed trends. The northern region may raise prices, while the southern region has stable supply. It is recommended to go long on near - term contracts at low prices and short on long - term contracts at high prices. [60] - **Eggs**: The egg price mostly fell. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is average. The price is expected to be mostly stable with a few slight declines. It is recommended to short on rallies. [61] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal prices fell. The domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing, and the supply is relatively sufficient. It is recommended to go long at the low - end of the cost range and pay attention to supply pressure at the high - end. [62][63] - **Oils and Fats**: The oil and fat prices oscillated. The Brazilian biodiesel policy is beneficial, but there are still some negative factors. The price is expected to oscillate. [64][65][66] - **Sugar**: The sugar price rebounded. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to change, and the import profit window is open. The sugar price is expected to decline steadily. [67] - **Cotton**: The cotton price rose. The market is in the off - season, and the high basis affects consumption. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [68]

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 6 月 26 日星期四 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-26） | | | | | 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运总量、到港量环比回升，整体处于近年来同期 高位水平，铁矿发运有冲量预期。产业端淡季，五大钢材产量增，铁水止 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 跌回升，铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说明当前 240 的高铁水仍旧能驱动港 | | | 铁矿石 | | 震荡 | 口去库，关注后续铁水持续回落状况。铁矿石整体呈现供应逐步回升、需 | | | | | | 求相对低位、港口库存步入累库通道的局面，铁矿供需过剩格局不变。 唐 | | | | | | 山传出钢铁企业烧结机减产 30%的消息，对原料端需求有下移空间，若 | | | | | | 铁水破 240 万吨，铁矿后期将承压下跌。策略上，前期空单继续持有。 | | | | | | 煤焦：近日主产区环保检查升级，内蒙乌海及临汾地区停产煤矿及洗煤厂 | | | | | | 较多，供应端有所收缩。焦炭方面，随着焦煤价格下跌，焦企入炉 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is actively managing liquidity through various monetary policy tools to address seasonal liquidity pressures and support economic stability amid increasing market uncertainties [1][2][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - On June 25, 2025, the PBOC conducted a 300 billion MLF operation with a one-year term to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, following the maturity of 182 billion MLF in June [1]. - The PBOC has implemented a total of 1.4 trillion yuan in reverse repos in June, including 1 trillion yuan for 91 days and 400 billion yuan for 182 days, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 318 billion yuan for the month [1][2]. - The adjustment of MLF operations to a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price levels indicates a shift in its role from a policy interest rate tool to a mid-term liquidity management tool [4][5]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Expectations - The liquidity supply-demand imbalance is particularly pronounced at mid-year, with significant seasonal increases in bank reserve requirements and a record high of 4.2 trillion yuan in maturing certificates of deposit [2]. - The government bond issuance pressure remains high, with an average net financing pressure of around 1 trillion yuan from June to December, necessitating PBOC's intervention to stabilize liquidity [2][6]. - The expectation of increased government bond issuance in August and September could further strain liquidity, with a projected monthly net financing scale of 1.5 to 1.6 trillion yuan [6][7]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy Outlook - The Ministry of Finance plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations, with potential incremental fiscal measures expected in the second half of the year [9][10]. - The central government's focus on enhancing fiscal support for consumption and investment indicates a strategic shift towards using fiscal policy as a primary tool for economic stabilization, with an expected additional funding of 500 to 1 trillion yuan [10].

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent developments in the A-share market, highlighting a significant upward trend over the past three days, suggesting that recent gains may outweigh efforts made over the previous two months [3][7] - The potential for a third wave rally in the A-share market is identified, with the current phase being a part of a larger upward trend that is expected to exceed the previous wave in both time and space [6] - The article emphasizes the importance of both internal fiscal policies and external monetary policies, with expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [6][7] Group 2 - Recent comments from several Federal Reserve officials indicate a consensus towards considering interest rate cuts, with some suggesting that action should be taken as early as July [8][9] - The article notes that the market's recent performance may not solely be attributed to geopolitical events but rather to underlying financial dynamics and policy expectations [7] - The Federal Reserve's current interest rate outlook suggests a gradual reduction in rates over the next year, which could diminish the dollar's interest rate advantage [11]

参议院问答环节 提问: 相比去年12月,美联储大幅下调了经济预测,但 上调了失业率和通胀预期。背后的原因是什么? 跟债务 水平是否有关系。 回答:我们对贸易政策带来的长期影响没有看法,但预 测变化部分反映了贸易政策的影响。经济预测和货币政 策跟债务水平无关。财政政策是我们考量的因素之一, 因为可能会推高通胀。 美联储主席鲍威尔出席耆议院听证会 另十数据Vip 美联储主席鲍威尔:通胀预期已较今年四月略有下降。 多 精英会员 乡 显十数据 Kp ケ THE HONORABLE JEROME H. POWELI ■听证会关键看点 每位议员的提问时间为5分钟。 ● 近期的通胀预期指标有所抬升,关税是背后驱动因素 ● 关税的影响将取决于其最终水平 · 避免通胀持续上升的关键在于关税的影响程度、传导 至价格所需时间,以及是否能有效锚定长期通胀预期 ● 美联储处于有利位置,可以耐心等待更多关于经济走 势的明确信号，再决定是否调整政策立场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Powell, will not consider federal debt issues in its monetary policy decisions, indicating a separation between fiscal and monetary policy considerations [1] Group 1 - Fiscal policy can exacerbate inflationary pressures, but the Federal Reserve will not publicly address this risk [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔表示， 财政政策可能会推高通胀。 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 300 billion MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a maturity of one year, as part of its strategy to ensure ample liquidity [1] - In June, the PBOC conducted significant reverse repo operations totaling 1.4 trillion yuan, indicating a proactive approach to manage liquidity ahead of maturing financial instruments [1][2] - The liquidity supply-demand imbalance is heightened during mid-year, with a notable increase in maturing certificates of deposit and government bond issuance pressures [2][4] Group 2 - The adjustment of MLF operations to a multi-price bidding system marks a shift in its role from a policy rate tool to a liquidity management tool, allowing for more market-driven pricing [3] - The decline in interbank deposit rates suggests potential for further decreases in MLF rates, influenced by the new bidding mechanism [3] - The PBOC is expected to continue utilizing various liquidity management tools, including reverse repos and MLF, to address liquidity needs and stabilize market expectations [5] Group 3 - The upcoming fiscal pressures in July, including tax payments and government bond issuance, are anticipated to create significant liquidity gaps, necessitating PBOC intervention [4][5] - The Ministry of Finance plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies to support economic stability and growth, with potential additional funding of 500 billion to 1 trillion yuan expected [6][7] - The focus on fiscal policy is expected to complement monetary policy efforts, with an emphasis on supporting consumption and effective investment [6][7]

【冠通研究】 沥青：低开震荡 制作日期：2025年6月25日 单边观望/逢低做多沥青09-12价差 期货方面： 今日沥青期货2509合约下跌1.89%至3574元/吨，5日均线下方，最低价在3537元/吨，最高价 3783元/吨，持仓量减少17999至251579手。 基差方面： 山东地区主流市场价下跌至3750元/吨，沥青09合约基差下跌至176元/吨，处于偏高水平。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 【策略分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落1.1个百分点至30.4%，较去年同期高了4.7个百分点，沥青开 工率转而回落，处于近年同期中性偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，6月份地炼预计排产130.9万吨，环 比增加6.5万吨，增幅为5.2%，同比增加37万吨，增幅为39.3%。上周沥青下游各行业开工率涨跌互现， 其中道路沥青开工环比下降3个百分点至22.6%，仍处于近年同期最低水平，受到资金制约。上周山 东地区个别炼厂复产，加之原油价格上涨带动交投气氛，出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加 5.99%至28.83万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比本周环比继续 ...