Core Viewpoint - The article presents the monthly stock selection of the "Liangma Combination" based on strategic focus and industry research, highlighting investment opportunities in various sectors following the resolution of external uncertainties in early April 2025 [1][2]. Sector Allocation - After the resolution of external risks, the focus is on high-quality growth stocks with clear industrial logic, particularly in technology, healthcare, and consumer sectors. Key events include the publication of the U.S. trade policy memorandum and clarity on "reciprocal tariffs" [3]. - The technology sector is expected to lead in April and May, driven by strong industrial catalysts and weak macroeconomic correlations. The main investment themes include edge AI and domestic computing power, especially with the anticipated release of new products in Q2 [3]. - In the healthcare sector, there are opportunities for value reassessment due to ongoing policy encouragement. The consumer sector presents structural opportunities from a bottom-up approach. Additionally, attention is drawn to relatively underperforming areas in renewable energy, such as energy storage and inverters [3].

Core Insights - Zhang Jiansheng, a fund manager at Baodao Fund, has shifted his investment strategy towards Hong Kong stocks, increasing their representation in his portfolio from 3 to over 50% by Q2 2024, indicating a positive outlook on the market [1] - His investment philosophy emphasizes a bottom-up stock selection framework, focusing on competitive barriers, industry dynamics, and valuation metrics [1][2] - Zhang's approach to valuation is unique, prioritizing the implied return over a five-year horizon rather than traditional price-to-earnings ratios, which he believes provides a more rational assessment of a company's worth [2] Stock Selection Criteria - Competitive barriers are deemed essential; companies lacking these barriers, regardless of growth rates, are not considered for heavy investment [1][3] - Industry supply-demand dynamics are critical for risk management, with Zhang highlighting the domestic innovative drug sector as an example of improving investment value due to favorable conditions [2] - Cash flow value is prioritized over market sentiment, as demonstrated by a past missed opportunity in telecom operators due to an overemphasis on short-term negatives [2][3] Focus Areas and Market Trends - Zhang identifies three key sectors for investment: 3D stacking technology, cloud computing, and edge AI, anticipating significant growth driven by technological advancements [3] - The changing pricing logic in the Hong Kong stock market, influenced by increasing southbound capital, presents new opportunities for bottom-up stock selection [3] - Despite the rise in the Hang Seng Tech Index, many quality assets in the Hong Kong market remain undervalued, suggesting potential for future appreciation [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next 3-6 months [1][7]. Core Insights - The company's profitability has significantly improved, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit for the fiscal year 2024. The total revenue reached 100.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.41%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.67 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 144.93% [1][3]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the explosive growth in the AI glasses industry, with a strong presence in multiple segments including acoustic components and assembly [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 100,954 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.4% projected for 2025 [3][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 2,665 million yuan, with an expected growth rate of 32.6% for 2025 [3][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was 0.76 yuan, projected to increase to 1.01 yuan in 2025 [3][8]. - The company’s total assets amounted to 82.71 billion yuan, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 48% [8]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is a leading player in the XR industry, expected to benefit from the anticipated growth in AI glasses sales, which saw a year-on-year increase of 533% in 2024 [7][8]. - The report highlights the company's strategic positioning in the AI glasses market, including its capabilities in acoustic components and optical modules, which are expected to drive future growth [7][8].

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 100.95 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.41% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.67 billion yuan, up 144.93% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 2.39 billion yuan, reflecting a 178.30% increase [1] - The gross profit margin for the year was 11.09%, an increase of 2.14 percentage points year-on-year [1] Quarterly Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 31.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.99% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 was 320 million yuan, up 63.23% year-on-year but down 71.45% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The non-recurring net profit for Q4 was 347 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 371.32% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 59.72% [1] - The gross profit margin for Q4 was 10.30%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points year-on-year and 1.06 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Business Segment Performance - The smart hardware segment generated revenue of 57.20 billion yuan, down 2.57% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 9.17%, an increase of 1.90 percentage points [2] - The smart acoustic complete machine segment saw revenue of 26.30 billion yuan, up 8.73% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 9.47%, an increase of 2.73 percentage points [2] - The precision components segment reported revenue of 15.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.85%, with a gross margin of 21.51%, up 1.02 percentage points [2] - The company’s VR/MR business showed significant growth, and AI is expected to enhance the value and profitability of acoustic sensor components [2] Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the upcoming AI wave, particularly with the RayBan-Meta leading the AI glasses market [2] - The company has a comprehensive layout in assembly, optics, acoustics, and sensing components, with deep cooperation with downstream major clients, indicating potential for entering a new growth cycle [2] Investment Projections - The company’s performance aligns with expectations, and the full-scale layout in edge AI is anticipated to lead to a new growth cycle [3] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 3.62 billion, 4.50 billion, and 5.08 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.04, 1.29, and 1.45 yuan [3] - The projected PE ratios for the same period are 26.00, 20.93, and 18.53 times [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - A-share market and various sectors including technology, consumer, real estate, and automotive industries Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Outlook**: The A-share market is currently in a phase of mixed performance, with some sectors showing strength while others decline. The market is expected to enter a new active phase driven by AI technology in April and May, with a focus on domestic demand policies around mid-year [1][2][3] 2. **Profit Improvement by Industry**: As of March 23, approximately 65% of annual reports have been disclosed, indicating positive net profit growth for sectors such as non-banking financials, electronics, transportation, automotive, telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and banking. Industries that have turned profitable include aquaculture and commerce [4][6] 3. **Investment Trends**: The A-share market remains a stock market, but there is a notable increase in domestic capital allocation to Hong Kong stocks, which may lead to a return of funds to the A-share market due to the stagnation of Hong Kong stocks [3][5] 4. **AI Sector Focus**: The theme of edge AI is highlighted as a significant investment opportunity, with a strong catalyst period expected from April to June. Key events include major product launches and conferences that could drive market interest [14][15][24] 5. **Currency Outlook**: The RMB is expected to fluctuate between 7.20 and 7.35 in the short term, with potential depreciation risks in the medium to long term due to external factors such as US tariffs and a strong dollar [9][10] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Deep Sea Technology**: The government has included deep-sea technology in its work report, indicating a strategic focus on this emerging sector. Companies involved in deep-sea technology are expected to benefit from upcoming policies and market growth [16][39][40] 2. **Automotive Industry Dynamics**: The automotive sector, particularly companies like BYD, is experiencing fluctuations due to external news and market conditions. However, the overall outlook remains positive with a focus on high-end, intelligent, and electric vehicles [29][30][31] 3. **Copper Supply and Demand**: The copper market is facing supply constraints, with expectations of strong price performance due to reduced production and potential tariff impacts. The outlook suggests that copper prices may return to previous highs [49] 4. **Consumer Sector Trends**: The consumer sector, particularly in retail and hospitality, is expected to rebound as demand recovers. Companies like Yonghui Supermarket are adjusting their store formats to improve profitability [56][59] This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and future expectations across various sectors.

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in consumer electronics with significant advantages in integrated hardware and software, making it suitable for edge AI deployment [1][15] - The company has over 2.3 billion active devices globally, indicating a strong user base for edge AI applications [1][26] - Revenue growth has slowed post-FY22, but service revenue continues to show double-digit year-on-year growth [1][32] - AI capabilities are expected to enhance both software and hardware revenue streams, leading to increased service business margins and cash flow [1][41] Summary by Sections 1. Comprehensive Hardware and Software Coverage - The company has a strong competitive edge in edge AI due to its integrated hardware and software ecosystem, including proprietary processors and operating systems [15][17] - The user base is substantial, with a significant number of active iPhone users, which supports the potential for AI deployment [15][26] 2. AI Expected to Drive Software Revenue - AI is anticipated to create additional software revenue streams, particularly through subscription models for services like Apple Intelligence [2][42] - The company has a high proportion of paid users, with nearly half of its user base subscribing to various services, indicating room for growth [2][50] - The service business has a gross margin exceeding 70%, which is expected to support ongoing share buybacks and dividends [2][65] 3. AI Empowering Hardware and Self-Developed Components - AI capabilities are likely to shorten product replacement cycles and expand the range of devices offered, contributing to long-term hardware revenue growth [3][41] - The company is increasing its self-developed chip ratio, which may mitigate potential tariff risks and enhance profitability [3][41] 4. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of $98.53 billion, $116.97 billion, and $130.35 billion for FY25, FY26, and FY27, respectively, with growth rates of 5.1%, 18.7%, and 11.4% [4][7] - A target price of $281.99 is set based on a 35x PE ratio for FY26, reflecting the company's strong AI capabilities and innovative product cycles [4][7]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in consumer electronics with significant advantages in integrated hardware and software, making it suitable for edge AI deployment [1][15] - The company has over 2.3 billion active devices globally, indicating a strong user base for edge AI applications [1][26] - Revenue growth has slowed post-FY22, but service revenue continues to show double-digit year-on-year growth [1][32] - AI is expected to drive software revenue growth and enhance free cash flow, supporting ongoing share buybacks and dividends [2][41] Summary by Sections 1. Comprehensive Hardware and Software Coverage - The company has a strong competitive edge in edge AI due to its integrated hardware and software ecosystem, including proprietary processors and operating systems [15][17] - The latest A and M series processors utilize advanced 3nm technology, ahead of competitors [17][20] 2. AI Expected to Drive Software Revenue - AI is anticipated to create additional software revenue streams, with subscription models expected to be introduced around 2027 [2][42] - The company has a high proportion of paid users, with nearly half of its user base subscribing to various services [2][50] - The introduction of Apple One subscription service is expected to enhance average revenue per user (ARPU) [2][56] 3. AI Empowering Hardware and Self-Developed Components - AI capabilities are expected to shorten product replacement cycles and expand the range of terminal products [3][41] - The company is increasing its self-developed chip ratio, which may mitigate potential tariff risks [3][21] 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Projected net profits for FY25 to FY27 are $98.53 billion, $116.97 billion, and $130.35 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 5.1%, 18.7%, and 11.4% [4][7] - The target price is set at $281.99 based on a 35X PE ratio for FY26 [4]

Investment Rating - The communication industry is rated as "Cautiously Optimistic" with a focus on operators with sustained profit growth and enhanced network value, optical communication companies benefiting from traffic growth, and high-quality enterprises with continuous technological innovation [5][41]. Core Viewpoints - The communication sector has shown steady growth in traditional businesses while actively exploring new growth points through innovative applications. Despite recent market adjustments, valuation levels are recovering [5][41]. - The integration of 5G-A (5.5G) and AI is highlighted as a core trend, with expectations for AI to further lead the communication industry towards 6G exploration. Chinese companies are positioned as key players in driving global communication industry development [4][40]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From March 10 to March 16, 2025, the communication sector (CITIC) increased by 0.21%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.59%, resulting in a 1.37 percentage point lag [2][12]. - Year-to-date, the communication industry has risen by 3.6%, ranking 18th among CITIC's primary industries [12][13]. - As of March 14, the CITIC communication industry had a TTM PE of 22.88 times, positioned at the 26.67 percentile [14]. Industry News - The MWC 2025 showcased the integration of 5G-A and AI, emphasizing the importance of AI in future industry trends. The event attracted over 2,700 exhibitors and highlighted the deep integration of communication technology with various industries [3][36]. - The GSMA's annual report indicated that by the end of 2024, global mobile internet users would reach 4.7 billion, with projections of 5.5 billion by 2030 [3][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a cautiously optimistic stance, focusing on operators with continuous profit growth, optical communication companies benefiting from traffic growth, and high-quality firms with strong core competitiveness [5][41].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The light industry sector is expected to become a significant node in the AI industry chain, with various sub-sectors such as eyewear and toys already implementing AI applications. Companies deeply involved in the AI supply chain are likely to benefit from future industry growth [9][3]. - Specific sub-sectors benefiting from AI include eyewear, mattresses, sports, and toys, which are recommended for investment focus [3][9]. Summary by Sections AI Eyewear - AI eyewear is entering a product explosion phase, with significant market response to products like Ray Ban Meta, which achieved a quarterly sales volume of 680,000 units in Q4 2024. Global sales of AI eyewear are projected to reach 1.5 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 533% [17][20]. - The market for AI eyewear is dominated by models with cameras, accounting for 94% of sales, primarily driven by the success of Ray Ban Meta [21][23]. - The cost structure of AI eyewear shows that lenses and frames account for about 8% of the total cost, with potential for significant value enhancement through advanced technologies [28][29]. AI Mattresses - AI mattresses integrate AI technology to monitor sleep data and adjust firmness and support based on user needs, addressing the growing sleep issues in modern society. The global market for AI mattresses was approximately $1.7 billion in 2023, with a projected CAGR of 5.6% from 2024 to 2030 [44][46]. - The market is still in its early stages, with intense competition and a focus on consumer education to enhance awareness and acceptance of AI mattress technology [48][50]. AI Sports and Fitness - The AI sports fitness market is characterized by two business models: one targeting consumers through apps and equipment, and the other targeting gyms with AI fitness devices. The market is expected to grow rapidly, with the Chinese smart fitness market projected to reach 82 billion yuan by 2025 [65][66]. - The penetration of AI fitness solutions is low but growing, with significant potential for expansion as consumer awareness increases and technology becomes more accessible [63][66].

Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing a divergence between Hong Kong and A-shares, driven by the concentration of high-quality core assets in Hong Kong, particularly in sectors like internet, hard technology, smart vehicles, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] Market Divergence - Investors face two main concerns: the bullish trend in Hong Kong stocks versus the volatility in A-shares, leading to performance discrepancies in institutional products [1] - Approximately 60% of public asset management products lack access to Hong Kong Stock Connect, and those that do have an average potential increase of 26.5% in their allowable investment in Hong Kong stocks [1] Strategy Paradigm Shift - The past three years were characterized as a macroeconomic boom, with macro volatility and policy responses being the main market drivers, leading to the adoption of barbell strategies [1] - In contrast, the current year is transitioning to a macroeconomic "small year," where policy direction is clearer, and marginal changes in macro and policy factors are less likely to drive market direction [1] Investment Themes - A-shares are expected to see concentrated themes in edge AI and high-energy density batteries, with significant catalysts anticipated in the second quarter [1] - Traditional core assets in A-shares are being cleared out, with potential operational turning points expected as the economy recovers [1] Performance Focus - The market is increasingly focusing on themes with high earnings certainty, particularly in sectors like military industry, low-altitude economy, and semiconductor advanced processes [3] - The upcoming increase in military spending in Europe and the gradual realization of capital expenditures by major internet companies are expected to boost related sectors [3] Economic and Fiscal Insights - The national economic development plan emphasizes nurturing emerging industries and adjusting supply-demand relationships, with a focus on infrastructure and manufacturing investment [5] - The fiscal budget report indicates a significant increase in broad fiscal spending, benefiting from the second set of accounts [5] Trade and Export Dynamics - The impact of U.S. tariffs is beginning to affect trade, with a notable decline in export growth rates, particularly in labor-intensive products [7] - The semiconductor industry is playing a crucial role in export dynamics, with geopolitical factors and tariff schedules being key variables for future export growth [7] Sector-Specific Developments - The cement industry is experiencing a price surge due to steady demand from infrastructure projects and coordinated supply-side measures [17] - The humanoid robot sector is poised for growth, with domestic control companies entering the market, indicating potential opportunities for incremental growth [19]