Core Viewpoint - The future trajectory of the gold market will depend on several key factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December and upcoming economic data, particularly the November CPI report scheduled for release on December 18 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of November 24, the dollar index slightly retreated, trading around 100.120, while gold prices were at $4066.81 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.05% [1]. - Gold prices reached a high of $4076.69 and a low of $4039.72 during the trading session [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. employment data showed a "strong but weak" trend, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000 in September, significantly above the expected 50,000, but with downward revisions of 33,000 for July and August [3]. - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021, leading to significant fluctuations in market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with probabilities swinging between 40% and 74% [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace process and developments in the Middle East are influencing market sentiment. The U.S. proposed a "28-point peace plan" for Ukraine, which has led to a decrease in geopolitical risk [3][4]. - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East, particularly following discussions on a ceasefire involving Hamas and the death of a Hezbollah leader, has provided support for gold prices due to increased geopolitical risks [4]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technically, gold is at a critical juncture, with $4148 acting as a significant support/resistance level. A stable position above this level could lead to testing above $4200, while a drop below $4040 may trigger a decline towards $4000 or lower [7]. - The demand for physical gold in major Asian markets remains weak, and fluctuations in interest rates are hindering potential buyers, which may limit upward movement in gold prices [7].

换资前言： 黄金目前的行情足以用惊心动魄4个字来形容，整体的波动幅度不算大，但是来来回回洗盘的次数可不 少，有时候就是看破位了才选择去进场，进场了发现是虚破，于是骂骂咧咧的亏了钱，然后骂骂咧咧的 在下一次要破位的时候进场，赌了个不破位，结果破位之后骂骂咧咧又亏一单，于是骂骂咧咧选择不进 场了，结果惊奇的发现，自己前期看的支撑位和压制位全部有效，于是一直都在骂骂咧咧。这大概就是 现在投资者的状况吧，也不是看不对，就是做不对，做着做着，自己的交易心态还崩了，多少就是黄金 在磨练人的意志了，这可能就是另一本"钢铁是怎样炼成的"。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周二（11月25日）亚市早盘，现货黄金守住涨幅，目前交投于4140美元/盎司附近。周一现货黄金强势 收在4134.54美元/盎司，单日大涨1.7%，创近两周最大单日涨幅，成功站稳4100美元心理关口。美联储 内部"鸽声四起"，12月降息概率从上周的40%一路飙升至81%，市场对宽松预期的重新定价成为本轮金 价暴拉的绝对主线。与此同时，俄乌局势再生波澜，基辅紧急拉响防空警报，地缘风险再度为黄金提供 避险溢价。双重利好共振之下，黄金多 ...

换资前言： 黄金目前的行情足以用惊心动魄4个字来形容，整体的波动幅度不算大，但是来来回回洗盘的次数可不 少，有时候就是看破位了才选择去进场，进场了发现是虚破，于是骂骂咧咧的亏了钱，然后骂骂咧咧的 在下一次要破位的时候进场，赌了个不破位，结果破位之后骂骂咧咧又亏一单，于是骂骂咧咧选择不进 场了，结果惊奇的发现，自己前期看的支撑位和压制位全部有效，于是一直都在骂骂咧咧。这大概就是 现在投资者的状况吧，也不是看不对，就是做不对，做着做着，自己的交易心态还崩了，多少就是黄金 在磨练人的意志了，这可能就是另一本"钢铁是怎样炼成的"。 多单策略: 威廉姆斯上周五表示，美国利率可能在不危及美联储通胀目标的情况下下降，同时有助于防止就业市场 进一步恶化。根据 CME FedWatch 工具，受威廉姆斯的鸽派表态推动，下月降息的押注从周五的 40% 飙升至 72%。与此同时，投资者正在等待本周晚些时候公布的重要经济数据，包括美国零售销售、初 请失业金人数以及生产者物价指数（PPI）。美国政府停摆推迟了原本用于判断降息概率的关键经济数 据发布。降息路径相当难以预测，接近五五开，因此金价可能继续在当前区间震荡。我认为黄金短期内 不 ...

最近打开黄金行情软件的人都会发现一个奇怪现象。 国际现货黄金在4063.94美元/盎司附近徘徊，比前一天还微跌了0.35%。 但国内的黄金T D价格却逆势 涨到了932.03元/克，上涨0.49%。 金店价格更是坚挺，周大福、周大生标价1295元/克，老凤祥1305元/克一分不让，建设银行的投资金条也仅小幅回调至 949.60元/克。 这种国际冷国内热的现象并不寻常。 市场看似平静，实则暗流涌动。 11月25日至26日这两天，三个关键事件将同时发酵，可能推动金价走出明确方向。 美 联储最新经济数据即将公布，中东地区紧张局势持续升级，大型机构的资金动向也将趋于明朗。 全球央行购金行为构成了判断金价趋势的基础。 世界黄金协会2025年第二季度报告显示，全球央行增持了166吨黄金。 尽管增速较前期放缓，但在全球经济 不确定性背景下，这一购买规模依然处于历史较高水平。 该报告中，95%的受访央行预计未来12个月内全球黄金储备将继续增长。 地缘政治紧张局势会激发黄金的避险属性。 2022年俄乌冲突爆发后，国际金价在一个月内上涨超过10%。 2023年10月中东局势紧张期间，黄金单日涨幅达 到1.5%。 当前美沙关系深化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Israel has lowered its interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since January 2024, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [1][5]. Economic Indicators - The decision to cut rates aligns with market expectations, as 13 out of 14 economists predicted a reduction to 4.25% [5]. - The annual inflation rate in Israel has eased, stabilizing at 2.5% in October, with expectations for a slight increase by year-end before stabilizing within target ranges [5]. - The labor market remains tight, with a high ratio of job vacancies to unemployment and ongoing wage growth [5]. Market Reactions - The Israeli stock market has shown positive performance, with indices rising and risk premiums slightly above pre-war levels [5]. - The New Israeli Shekel has appreciated against the US dollar by 1.3% and against the euro by 2.9% since the last rate decision [6]. Economic Growth - Israel's GDP grew by 12.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, significantly surpassing the expected 7.3%, driven by strong private consumption, exports, and fixed asset investment [6]. - Private consumption increased by 23%, fixed asset investment rose by 36.9%, and exports of goods and services grew by 23.3% in Q3 [6]. Future Outlook - The Bank of Israel's monetary policy will focus on price stability, supporting economic activity, and maintaining market stability, with future rate decisions influenced by inflation, economic activity, and geopolitical uncertainties [5].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced a slight decline last week, influenced by the Federal Reserve's expectations regarding interest rate cuts in December and mixed employment data, but remains above the 5-10 week moving averages, indicating potential for future strength [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices opened the week at $4084.59 per ounce, hitting a weekly low of $3997.78 on Tuesday, before reaching a high of $4132.38, ultimately closing at $4064.80, resulting in a weekly fluctuation of $134.6 and a decline of $19.79, or 0.48% [1] - The market is currently experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations, with early signs of recovery supported by dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, although facing resistance from a strong dollar index [3] Group 2: Future Outlook - The outlook for gold remains bullish, with expectations of a continued easing cycle from the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical risks, alongside persistent demand for gold from global central banks and ETF holdings [6] - Historical trends suggest that corrections during easing cycles often present good buying opportunities, reinforcing the view that current adjustments may be seen as entry points for investors [6] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are above the 10-week moving average, with potential for further upward movement if key resistance levels are broken, while support levels are identified at the 60-day and 100-day moving averages [8]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年11月24日15时57分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏弱，沪金主力收跌0.52%，沪银主力收跌1.14%。①核心逻辑，短期避险方面，中美会谈利空兑现，地缘异动风 险仍存；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期回调。②避险属性方面，中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。俄乌、中东等地缘异动风险仍存 。③货币属性方面，威廉姆斯讲话提高美联储降息可能性，但政策鹰派仍坚持己见。美国11月工厂活动降至四个月新低，需求疲 软导致库存积压。美国9月就业增长超预期，但失业率升至4.4%。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数据指引。目前市场预期 美联储12月降息25基点概率暴涨至70%附近。美元指数和美债收益率高位承压；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民 币贬值利多内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金主力合约收盘价 | 美元 ...

俄乌和平谈判重启下地缘局势趋缓利空国际油价。 今晚过后成品油价将打破此前上涨态势，迎来年内第十次下调。 本轮调价后，私家车主和物流企业出行成本将有所减少。据隆众资讯测算，以油箱容量50升的普通私家 车计算，本次调价后，车主们加满一箱油将少花2.5元左右；按市区百公里耗油7-8升的车型，平均每行 驶一百公里费用减少0.35元左右；而对满载50吨的大型物流运输车辆而言，平均每行驶一百公里，燃油 费用将减少2.4元左右。 本轮调价周期内，国际油价先扬后抑。具体来看，据金联创成品油分析师王延婷介绍，计价周期初期， 美国对卢克石油公司实施制裁，引发俄罗斯出口流量可能面临短期中断猜测，加之乌克兰袭击俄罗斯重 要石油港口，且伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡附近扣押一艘油轮，地缘政治风险加剧提振国际油价。但后期随着 俄乌和平谈判重启，加之遭遇乌克兰袭击导致黑海港口恢复装货，地缘政治冲突危机解除，且美联储降 息不确定性抑制投资者风险偏好，利空因素增加，国际油价震荡走低。 下一轮调价窗口将在12月8日24时开启，多家机构预计新一轮成品油调价"两连跌"概率较大。 展望后市，隆众资讯表示，美国积极推进俄乌双方的新和平协议谈判，地缘局势有望出现进一 ...

近期，国际原油市场多空因素交织，整体呈现复杂震荡格局。展望后市，俄乌局势的演变仍是影响油市的关键变量，若双方达成停 战协议，俄罗斯原油供应约束放松，将加大全球原油供应过剩压力，油价将面临进一步调整风险。 受此影响，市场对美联储降息预期迅速降温。CME"美联储观察"工具显示，交易员对12月降息25个基点的概率预测从48.9%降至 32.7%。美元指数随之显著走强，突破100整数关口，美债收益率也同步上行，对以美元计价的国际原油等大宗商品价格构成压 制。 三大机构月报强化供应过剩预期 11月中旬，美国能源信息署（EIA）、国际能源署（IEA）和石油输出国组织（OPEC）相继发布最新月度报告。尽管各机构对原油 需求增速的判断仍存差异，但在供给持续增长这一基本判断上已形成共识。 美元走强压制大宗商品价格走势 北京时间11月20日凌晨，美国劳工统计局宣布，因部分关键数据无法正常采集，将不再单独发布10月非农就业报告，原定于12月5 日发布的11月报告推迟至12月16日公布。这意味着美联储在年内最后一次政策决策前，将完全缺失10月以来的关键就业数据支撑， 就业数据空窗期的延长进一步加剧了货币政策的不确定性，并显著提升美联 ...

Core Insights - The proportion of Japanese companies prioritizing mainland China as a production base has decreased to 16.2%, down 7.6 percentage points from the previous survey in 2019, indicating concerns over US-China tariff negotiations and geopolitical risks [2][4] - The overall percentage of Japanese companies establishing production or sales bases overseas has dropped to 18.3%, a decline of 6.4 percentage points compared to pre-COVID levels [4] Group 1: Production Base Preferences - After mainland China, the next most prioritized locations for production bases are Vietnam (7.9%), Thailand (5.3%), and Taiwan (2.7%) [6] - The survey indicates a significant shift in focus away from China for production, reflecting broader trends in global supply chain adjustments [2][6] Group 2: Sales Base Preferences - Mainland China remains the top choice for sales bases at 12.3%, but this represents a decline of 13.6 percentage points from the last survey [6] - The United States ranks second for sales bases at 8.2%, followed by Thailand at 6.2%, highlighting a shift in market focus [6] Group 3: Impact of Tariff Negotiations - 13.5% of surveyed companies reported that US tariff negotiations had a "significant impact" on their overseas operations, including adjustments to locations and market exits [6] - 42.5% of companies acknowledged "some degree of impact," citing increased costs and the need to revise local procurement strategies [6]