研究员：沈忱 CFA 期货从业证号：F3053225 投资咨询证号：Z0015885 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 2 国债期货周报：重要会议落地，盘面波动加大 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 第二部分 相关数据追踪 12 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 内容摘要 ◼【综合分析】 逻辑梳理：本周部分月度宏观数据密集公布，整体有喜有忧。其中金融数据方面，新型政策性金融工具带动企业部门融资需求上升是 最大亮点，但基数抬升等因素共同作用下，M1增速则继续放缓。相较于基本面数据而言，市场关注点更多集中在重要会议的内容上 。周四公布的中央经济工作会议通稿内容未超预期。财政政策方面，"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量"的表述降低了明 年财政在"量"上大幅加码的概率。而货币政策适度宽松的基调不变，且将"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"，明年政策利率调 降仍然可期。不过，周五上 ...

与瑞士央行的维稳立场形成鲜明对比的是，美联储此前如期实施25个基点降息，并释放出更为鸽派的政 策信号。美联储主席鲍威尔淡化通胀担忧，明确排除加息可能性，市场普遍预期2026年美联储将继续推 进货币宽松进程，直接导致美元指数承受下行压力，进一步放大了美元兑瑞郎的跌幅。这种政策周期的 错位成为当前汇价走势的核心结构性驱动因素——美联储已进入明确的降息通道，而瑞士央行因利率已 处于0%水平，政策宽松空间受到显著约束，这种不对称格局持续影响着两种货币的相对强弱关系。 通胀层面，瑞士物价形势持续低迷，11月消费者物价指数(CPI)同比涨幅降至0%，较8月的0.2%进一步 回落，主要受酒店住宿、房租及服装等领域价格下行拖累。基于此，瑞士央行下调了中期通胀预期，将 2026年通胀预期从0.5%下调至0.3%，2027年预期从0.7%下调至0.6%，反映出该行对未来物价压力的判 断更趋谨慎。尽管通胀低迷引发市场对瑞士央行进一步宽松的猜测，但结合其对负利率的谨慎态度，短 期政策调整概率较低。 经济增长方面，瑞士第三季度GDP因制药行业出口回调出现收缩，但其他制造业和服务业的温和增长部 分抵消了这一拖累；瑞士央行预计2025年G ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日收盘价 | TS2603 102.464 | TS2606 102.482 | TF2603 105.820 | TF2606 105.810 | T2603 107.985 | T2606 108.000 | TL2603 112.47 | TL2606 112.66 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.474 | 102.492 | 105.885 | 105.885 | 108.100 | 108.115 | 113.19 | 113.34 | | | 涨跌 | -0.010 | -0.010 | -0.065 | -0.075 | -0.115 | -0.115 | -0.720 | -0.680 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.01% | -0.01% | -0.06% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The long - term driving logic for copper still exists, and the price decline is limited [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 94,080 with a daily increase of 2.03%, and the night - session closing price was 91,550 with a decline of 2.69%. The price of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 11,553 with a decline of 2.37%. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai copper index and LME copper 3M electronic disk both increased compared to the previous day. The inventory of Shanghai copper increased by 1,102 to 32,563, and the inventory of LME copper increased by 50 to 165,900. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME copper was 39.78% with a decline of 0.40% [1] - **Spot Data**: The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper increased by 500 to 82,900. The spot - to - near - month futures spread was - 20, a decrease of 25 compared to the previous day. The near - month contract - to - consecutive - first - contract spread was - 60, a decrease of 30 compared to the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The People's Bank of China will flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Trump prefers to let Warsh or Hassett serve as the Fed chair and hopes the interest rate will be 1% or lower in a year [1] - **Industry News**: China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in November were 252.6 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 2.7614 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. The US is negotiating with Central African countries to provide over $1 billion for two key mineral and railway projects. Chile's copper export value in November was $4.282 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.57%. In October, the copper production of Chile's state - owned miner Codelco decreased by 14.3% year - on - year to 111,000 tons. The mining investment in Chile from this year to 2034 is expected to reach $104.549 billion, higher than the previous forecast [1][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral state [3]

金融研究 2025年12月15日 星期一 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 12 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.41%，报收 3889.35 点；深 成指上涨 0.84%，报收 13258.33 点；创业板指上涨 0.97%，报收 3194.36 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.74%， 报收 1348.88 点。市场成交 21,190 亿元，较前日增加 2,337 亿元。行业板块方面，有色金属(+1.5%)， 电子(+1.46%)，电力设备(+1.42%)涨幅居前；商贸零售(-1.28%)，综合(-1.18%)，建筑材料(-0.47%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IC>IM>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,681/162/2,610。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-28、-62、-124、213 亿元，分别变动+305、+169、-294、 股指期货 -181 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 84.74、54.79、25.35 与 14.64 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-11.98%、-7.96%、-5.76%与-5 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to be weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. - For financial futures index stock sectors including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy in the long - term, which supports bond futures, but in the short - term, due to the strong resilience of macro - economic data and policy focus on structural easing, the expectation of a full - scale interest rate cut is low, so bond futures will oscillate in the short - term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, and the overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The reason is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there is still a long - term easing expectation [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For varieties like TL, T, TF, and TS, last Friday, bond futures oscillated and pulled back. The central economic work conference proposes to continue a moderately loose monetary policy, and the long - term monetary environment is loose, which supports bond futures. However, in the short - term, macro - economic data is resilient, the urgency of a full - scale interest rate cut is low, and the policy focuses on structural easing, so the upward momentum of bond futures is limited. Overall, bond futures are under pressure and support, and will oscillate in the short - term [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Citi Private Bank's Global Investment Committee has increased its allocation to U.S. large-cap stocks and gold while reducing exposure to Asian emerging market stocks outside of China and high-yield bonds in developed markets [1][2][3] - The adjustments are expected to align with the improving macroeconomic outlook while maintaining a diversified investment portfolio [1] - Citi Private Bank emphasizes a preference for high-quality companies with strong fundamentals and growth prospects, focusing on large-cap stocks due to their robust balance sheets and diversified supply chains [2] Group 2 - In fixed income, Citi has reduced its holdings in developed market high-yield bonds, preferring to shift risk exposure to the stock market instead [3] - The bank anticipates that ongoing monetary easing, deficit spending, and tariff effects will continue to push inflation higher, despite the Federal Reserve's dovish stance [3] - Citi expects global economic expansion to continue, supported by loose monetary policy and stable economic activity, with nominal growth projected for 2026 [3][4] Group 3 - The U.S. tax reform and government spending commitments are expected to boost consumer and business spending and investment [4] - Citi forecasts that financial deregulation and a loose liquidity environment will promote healthy growth in leverage ratios by 2026 [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The global economy continues to show resilience against tariffs and broader uncertainties, with an improved outlook compared to previous updates. The global growth forecast for 2025 has been raised by 0.3 percentage points, particularly notable in the U.S. and Japan [4][5][8]. Economic Growth Projections - **Global Growth**: The forecast for global GDP growth in 2025 is now 3.4%, with a slight decrease to 3.0% in 2026 [9]. - **U.S. Growth**: The U.S. GDP growth is projected at 2.0% for both 2025 and 2026, supported by strong consumer spending and AI-driven investments [4][10][13]. - **Japan**: Japan's GDP growth is expected to be 1.0% in 2025 and 0.8% in 2026, driven by fiscal stimulus and improvements in real wages [4][30]. - **China**: China's GDP growth is forecasted at 4.9% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026, with ongoing challenges from weak household confidence and real estate concerns [30]. - **Euro Area**: The Eurozone is expected to grow at 1.4% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, with stable growth despite tariff impacts [17][19]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - **Global Inflation**: The overall global inflation forecast for 2025 has been slightly lowered to 1.9%, with expectations of a return to target levels in various regions by 2026 [9][10]. - **U.S. Inflation**: The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) is expected to remain above 2.5% in 2025, with core PCE projected to be close to 3% in 2026 [4][10][13]. - **Monetary Policy**: The Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates once more in 2026 after a reduction in December 2025. The Bank of Japan is projected to raise rates twice, reaching 1.0% [4][10][19]. Risks and Uncertainties - Ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the U.S.-China trade relationship, may continue to impact market sentiment [4][30]. - Concerns about asset market overheating and labor market distortions due to rapid AI adoption are also highlighted as potential risks [4][10]. Key Economic Indicators - **GDP Growth Rates**: - U.S.: 2.0% (2025), 2.0% (2026) - Euro Area: 1.4% (2025), 1.2% (2026) - Japan: 1.0% (2025), 0.8% (2026) - China: 4.9% (2025), 4.4% (2026) [9][10][30]. - **CPI Projections**: - U.S.: 2.7% (2025), 2.8% (2026) - Euro Area: 2.1% (2025), 1.7% (2026) - Japan: 2.6% (2025), 1.4% (2026) [9][10]. Conclusion - The global economic outlook is cautiously optimistic, with growth expected to remain robust in major economies despite facing various challenges. The focus on monetary policy adjustments and inflation management will be crucial in navigating the upcoming economic landscape [4][10][30].

2025年12月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：如期降息 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位调整 | 2 | | 铜：长期驱动逻辑仍存，价格回落有限 | 4 | | 锌：国内持续去库 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 9 | | 铝：宏观扰动增加 | 11 | | 氧化铝：持续关注产能减产 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：高位震荡 | 11 | | 铂：突破前高开启补涨 | 13 | | 钯：ETF增持明显，有望冲击前高 | 13 | | 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 | 15 | | 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 | 15 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 15 日 黄金：如期降息 白银：高位调整 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 期货研究 | 贵金属基本面数据 | | | | | | ...

固收｜经济工作会议后，利率为何上行 20251214 摘要 货币政策维持宽松基调，强调降本降息，但短期内市场反应平淡，配置 力量不足导致跨年行情预计震荡偏弱，明年一月后或有转机。 预计 2026 年一季度降准概率较大以缓解银行负债端压力，降息规模和 时间点尚不明确，OMO 降息或针对对资金不敏感机构，降息模式可能 多样化。 财政政策方面，增量有限，更注重用好已有政策，广义赤字预计与 2025 年持平，缺乏强劲财政刺激信号导致市场反应平淡。 特别国债和地方专项债发行量增加且期限延长，导致长期和超长期债券 供给增加，市场债券托管久期难以下行，收益率存在上行压力。 国内利率上限设置有利于国债市场稳定，扩张期内利率上行速度较慢， 央行可能通过买入国债维护国家杠杆成本。 年底至明年初银行配置力量偏弱，债市博弈超跌反弹，TL 合约波动区间 预计在 110 元至 113.5 元之间，可博弈老老债与新债税率差异。 信用票息策略在 2026 年仍具投资价值，短久期信用下沉策略预计成为 主流，转债市场关注科技成长板块，均衡布局分散风险。 Q&A 如何看待近期债市的波动及其背后的原因？ 近期债市出现了明显的波动，主要表现为先走弱后 ...