Let's go to Washington DC with Edward Lawrence with the official decision. >> Well, the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged. There were two dissenters in this.Steven Myron, board of governor as well as board of governor Christopher Waller both desented in this. Myron has dissented at every meeting that he has attended. His term ends on Saturday.Now, Governor Waller uh he is still in the running as one of the last four finalists for the Federal Reserve chairman. Uh now in the statement the Federal Reserve ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, pausing the series of rate cuts that began in September of the previous year, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Economic activity continues to expand at a steady pace, with employment growth remaining low and the unemployment rate showing signs of stabilization [2] - Inflation levels are still slightly elevated, indicating ongoing concerns regarding price stability [2] Group 2: Policy Commitment - The committee is committed to achieving full employment in the long term and maintaining the inflation rate at the target level of 2% [2] - The committee will carefully assess the latest data, evolving outlook, and balance of risks when considering further adjustments to the federal funds rate [2] Group 3: Voting Members - The decision to maintain the rate was supported by several members, including Jerome H. Powell, John C. Williams, and others [3] - Opposing the decision were Stephen I. Miran and Christopher J. Waller, who favored a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate [3]

Cryptocurrency Market - In 2022, cryptocurrency prices struggled due to rising interest rates, but began to recover in 2023 and 2024 following the introduction of bitcoin ETFs [1] - By the end of 2025, cryptocurrency prices deteriorated while precious metals reached new highs [1] - The performance of major cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ethereum has been volatile, with many coins failing to keep pace with the rise of precious metals [11][12] Stock Market Performance - Major stock indexes, including the S&P 500, experienced a downturn in 2022 but rebounded significantly in 2023, with a 24% increase [2] - The S&P 500 continued to rise by 23% in 2024 and ended 2025 with a 16% annual return after recovering from a downturn related to President Trump's tariffs [2] - The stock market outlook improved as investors gained clarity on the end of rising interest rates in 2023 [3] Interest Rate Impact - The Federal Reserve raised interest rates 11 times starting in 2022, which significantly affected various asset classes, including stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies [4][7] - Interest rates are a primary tool for the Fed to influence economic activity, with lower rates stimulating growth and higher rates slowing it down [5] - The Fed has cut interest rates six times since September 2024, indicating a shift in monetary policy [5] Labor Market and Economic Conditions - The labor market showed signs of slowing but may be at a turning point, with inflation decreasing from its 2025 peak [6] - Economic conditions remain uncertain as policymakers await new data before making further decisions [6] Commodities Market - Precious metals have shown strong performance, while oil prices fluctuated between $70 and $85 in 2024, dropping below $60 in 2025 due to economic concerns [10][14] - The performance of commodities has been mixed, with gold and silver reaching record highs while oil faced challenges [10][14]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining a stable liquidity environment through various monetary policy tools, with a significant increase in mid-term liquidity injections in January 2023, despite a relatively modest net injection in the short term [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - On January 28, the PBOC conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 377.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 14 billion yuan after 363.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1]. - The total net injection for the week reached 84.2 billion yuan, indicating a cautious approach to liquidity management [1]. - The PBOC's operations in January included a net injection of 300 billion yuan through reverse repos and 700 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), totaling a net injection of 1 trillion yuan for the month, significantly higher than December's 300 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Liquidity and Interest Rates - As of January 28, the overnight repo rate (DR001) slightly decreased to 1.367% from 1.3674%, while the 7-day repo rate (DR007) fell to 1.5479% from 1.5833%, reflecting a stable liquidity environment [2]. - The PBOC's proactive measures, including the early renewal of MLF, indicate a strong intention to support the liquidity in the market, especially ahead of the Chinese New Year [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to February, potential liquidity disturbances are anticipated due to increased cash withdrawals before the Spring Festival and sustained high levels of government bond issuance [3]. - The PBOC is expected to implement 14-day reverse repos and continue flexible operations with reverse repos and MLF to inject mid-term liquidity into the market [3]. - Despite the low probability of a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in the short term, the liquidity environment is expected to remain stable, with controlled volatility in both DR007 and DR001 rates [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada maintains the benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, marking the second consecutive meeting without changes, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Bank of Canada acknowledges that the Canadian economy is adapting to structural challenges posed by U.S. protectionism, leading to high uncertainty in predicting future interest rate adjustments [2] - The central bank's economic growth forecasts remain consistent with previous estimates, projecting growth of 1.1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, with an upward revision of the 2025 growth estimate to 1.7% due to less severe impacts from tariffs than anticipated [2][4] - The unemployment rate remains high at 6.8%, with rising youth unemployment and a decrease in the number of companies planning to hire [2] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The central bank expects inflation to remain around the 2% target, with trade-related cost pressures offset by excess supply [2] - The latest inflation rate for December is reported at 2.4%, influenced by a base effect from temporary sales tax relief last winter, while the preferred core inflation measure has decreased to approximately 2.5% [4] - The Bank of Canada emphasizes the limitations of monetary policy, stating it cannot address structural damages caused by tariffs or specifically target sectors severely impacted by economic shocks [5] Group 3: Future Policy Considerations - The central bank's cautious stance reflects the unpredictability of U.S. trade policies and high geopolitical risks, leading to a neutral outlook on interest rates [3] - The Bank of Canada retains flexibility regarding future actions, indicating potential paths depending on the economic transition to a new trade environment and consumer spending trends [3]

Group 1 - The core expectation is that the Federal Reserve will pause its rate cuts, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75% during the upcoming meeting [1] - Market predictions indicate a 2.8% probability of a rate cut in January, with a 97.2% chance of maintaining the current rate, aligning with recent statements from key Fed officials [1] - The wording of the policy statement is crucial, with potential adjustments signaling the Fed's future intentions regarding rate cuts [1][2] Group 2 - Inflation indicators show the December 2025 CPI at a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, and core CPI at 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, but still above the Fed's 2% target [2] - Employment data shows a significant slowdown in non-farm job growth, yet the unemployment rate remains stable, indicating no clear signals for a rate cut [2] - Internal voting dynamics and personnel changes within the Fed may influence the decision-making process, with some members advocating for quicker rate cuts [2][3] Group 3 - Political factors are impacting the meeting, with increased intervention from the Trump administration, including a criminal investigation into Powell and potential nominations for the next Fed chair [3] - The market has already priced in expectations for the meeting, with the S&P 500 index at historical high valuations, necessitating supportive monetary policy signals [3] - Overall, the meeting is likely to adopt a "pause" stance, balancing inflation control with economic growth needs, though uncertainties remain regarding political influences and data dependencies [3]

Key Insights - The report highlights the liquidity situation and local government bond strategies, indicating a significant increase in government debt payments to approximately 515 billion yuan, which may disrupt the liquidity environment. However, the central bank's net injection of 1 trillion yuan through reverse repos and MLF shows a commitment to maintaining liquidity support [6][9]. - Local government bond issuance is projected to reach 863.3 billion yuan by the end of January, with long-term bonds accounting for 57% of the total issuance. The report notes a doubling of the February issuance plan, indicating potential pressure on the market due to fewer working days [15][41]. Monetary Policy and Liquidity Insights - The report discusses the impact of tax periods on liquidity, with a notable rise in government debt payments. The central bank's actions, including a net injection of 1 trillion yuan, are aimed at stabilizing the liquidity environment, suggesting that concerns over month-end liquidity may be overstated [6][9]. - The report also mentions that interbank deposit rates have decreased despite an increase in overnight funding rates, indicating that banks may have sufficient long-term liabilities [6][9]. Local Government Bond Insights - By the end of January, local government bonds are expected to total 863.3 billion yuan, with 494.9 billion yuan in long-term bonds and 276.8 billion yuan in debt-restructuring bonds. The issuance plan for February has been adjusted significantly, reflecting increased pressure on the market [15][41]. - The report emphasizes the strong willingness of regions to maintain a lower limit on bonds with maturities of 10 years or less, reflecting fiscal cost control considerations. However, there is less intervention in long-term bonds, suggesting manageable supply pressure under coordinated fiscal and monetary policies [15][41]. Market Dynamics - Recent sentiment towards long-term bonds has improved, with insurance companies showing a net purchase of 10 billion yuan, indicating a release of pent-up demand for bond investments. The report notes that the newly issued 30-year Sichuan bond quickly traded at a slight premium in the secondary market [16][42]. - The report identifies the current yield curve's convex points and highlights that the yield spreads for various maturities are at historically low levels, suggesting potential investment opportunities in specific bond maturities [44].

市场分析师Ghiles Guezout表示，这一宣布可能最早就在今天。财经网站Investinglive分析师Eamonn Sheridan也表示，特朗普官宣时机有可能特意安排在美联储1月政策会议期间。据分析，此举具有战略 意图，若美联储此次未降息，那么在会议期间宣布美联储主席人选将使白宫能够左右政策叙事。 特朗普可能提前公布下任美联储主席提名，甚至将官宣时间与本周美联储的利率决议同步。美联储联邦 公开市场委员会（FOMC）将于北京时间周四凌晨03:00公布利率决议。 周二在爱荷华州的演讲中，特朗普表示："我很快就会宣布美联储主席人选。"至于很快是"多快"，市场 对此的猜测正在加剧。 当前市场押注的热门人选为贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官里克・里德尔（Rick Rieder），投资者认 为他支持降息，且不会对美联储的独立性构成直接威胁。 截至发稿，预测平台Polymarket的数据显示，里德尔的当选概率以46.1%位居首位，远超前美联储理事 凯文・沃什（Kevin Warsh）的29%；现任美联储理事克里斯托弗・沃勒（Christopher Waller）的概率为 7.5%，国家经济委员会主任凯文・哈塞特（Ke ...

决议的三大看点 由于许多美联储决策者认为央行目前处于或接近中性政策状态，因此，现在开始刺激经济的理由并不充 分——尤其是在今年财政政策即将启动以及关税上调对价格的影响仍存在不确定性的情况下。 专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月28日，美联储在北京时间周四凌晨即将迎来开年的第一场利率决议，当前，经济增长具备韧性、股 市接近历史高位且通胀高于目标水平，这些因素都表明美联储本次会暂停降息。但虽然预期维持利率不 变，但是这次决议在地缘政治、贸易不确定性、金银双高背景下的一次关键会议，所以对市场的指引可 能也更加复杂，重点关注主席鲍威尔召开货币政策新闻发布会的措辞。 政策立场：对通胀和经济的评估，看美联储是否会调整对通胀"顽固"和经济"韧性"的描述？ 降息路径：对于下一次降息的暗示，面对最新的地缘政治局势，鲍威尔若释放更耐心信号，可能意味着 降息会被推迟到下半年晚些时候。 政治压力：美联储独立性的表态，特朗普正物色新美联储主席，任何关于政治压力影响决策的讨论都会 引发市场担忧。此前特朗普试图解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克，并对主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查，以期影响 央行的决策。 特朗普近期对加拿大、欧洲的关税威胁频发，导致市场集体震 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current interest rate range of 3.50%-3.75% during the upcoming meeting, with no new economic or policy forecasts released [1][2] - Economic indicators show stability in the labor market and inflation, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.4% in December, despite weak job growth [2][3] - Analysts predict that Fed Chair Powell will emphasize the adequacy of the current monetary policy stance and the need for data-driven decisions moving forward [2][3] Group 2 - The focus of the upcoming meeting may shift from monetary policy to political issues, particularly regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and potential new chair nominations [4][5] - There is speculation about Rick Rieder from BlackRock potentially being nominated as the new Fed Chair, which could lead to a more dovish monetary policy stance [4][5] - The market anticipates that the new leadership may push for rate cuts later in the year, with some analysts predicting a total of three rate cuts in the second half of the year [5][6] Group 3 - The current global monetary easing cycle has led to increased correlations among various asset classes, with strong performance in equity markets and rising prices for precious and industrial metals [6][7] - The potential change in Fed leadership is expected to reshape global monetary policy, with a weaker dollar likely under a continued easing stance [7][8] - The outlook for gold prices is supported by expectations of continued Fed easing, with key signals for future price movements being a shift to tightening monetary policy or a significant improvement in the U.S. economy [7][8]