Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's monetary policy is expected to be moderately accommodative, supporting economic recovery with significant growth in credit and social financing, indicating a positive trend for the economy [1][7]. Group 1: Credit and Financing Growth - In 2025, new RMB loans are projected to reach 16.27 trillion yuan, with a total social financing increment of 35.6 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 3.34 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [1][3]. - By the end of 2025, the total social financing stock is expected to grow by 8.3% year-on-year, while the broad money supply (M2) is anticipated to increase by 8.5%, both significantly exceeding nominal GDP growth rates [1][6]. - In December 2025, RMB loans increased by 910 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 80 billion yuan but a month-on-month increase of 520 billion yuan, indicating a stronger demand from enterprises compared to households [2][3]. Group 2: Structural Optimization - The structure of financing is improving, with non-loan financing methods contributing significantly to the total social financing increment, surpassing 50% of the total, reflecting the effectiveness of financial supply-side structural reforms [3][5]. - By the end of 2025, the balance of medium- and long-term loans in the manufacturing sector is expected to grow by 6.6%, while infrastructure loans are projected to increase by 6.9%, and services (excluding real estate) by 9.4% [4][5]. Group 3: Interest Rates and Costs - The average interest rates for newly issued corporate loans and personal housing loans are approximately 3.1%, showing a decline of 2.5 and 2.6 percentage points since the second half of 2018 [5][6]. - The financing costs are decreasing, with the new loan rates for technology and digital economy sectors being 2.81% and 2.7%, respectively, both lower than the previous year [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - For 2026, it is anticipated that more proactive macroeconomic policies will continue to enhance counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, with expected new credit of about 18 trillion yuan and social financing increment reaching 38 trillion yuan [7].

特朗普在活动现场表示，他注意到哈塞特当天出席活动，并特别提到其在电视节目中的表现。"我看到 凯文就在现场，只想对你说声感谢。你今天在电视上的表现非常出色。说实话，如果讲真心话，我其实 希望你继续留在现在的位置上。" 他进一步解释称，哈塞特的专业能力和沟通表现令他十分倚重。特朗普表示："凯文·哈塞特真的非常优 秀。我在想，如果把他调走，美联储的那些人，包括我们现在这位主席，他们并不太善于对外表达，那 我就会失去凯文。这对我来说是一个很现实、也很严肃的顾虑。" 智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普周五在白宫一场活动上公开称赞其经济顾问凯文·哈塞特，并表示 在考虑下一任美联储主席人选之际，自己更倾向于让哈塞特继续留在现有岗位。 特朗普还在发言中向白宫幕僚长苏茜·威尔斯提及此事，称哈塞特的表现"令人难以置信"，并强调政 府"不想失去他"，但也指出，最终人事安排仍需综合各方面因素再作决定。 上述言论正值特朗普权衡下一任美联储主席提名人选之际。市场人士普遍认为，白宫在货币政策核心岗 位上的人事取向，可能对未来利率政策走向及金融市场预期产生重要影响。受该消息影响，黄金、白银 短线跳水，现货黄金跌破4560美元/盎司，日内跌1 ...

数据显示，2025年，我国社会综合融资成本进一步降低。2018年下半年以来，人民银行累计10次下调政策利率，还通过强化利率政策执行和监督，更好发挥 存量政策效能，促进社会综合融资成本稳步下行。2025年12月，新发放企业贷款加权平均利率和新发放个人住房贷款加权平均利率在3.1%左右，自2018年 下半年以来，分别下降了2.5个和2.6个百分点。 人民银行新闻发言人、副行长邹澜在发布会上表示，下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点，各类再贷款一年期利率降至1.25%，其他期限档次利 率同步调整。完善结构性工具并加大支持力度，进一步助力经济结构转型优化。 邹澜表示，将会同金融监管总局将商业用房购房贷款最低首付比例下调至30%，支持推动商办房地产市场去库存。 湖北日报讯（记者王艳华）2026年1月15日下午，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍货币金融政策支持实体经济高质量发展成效。会上，央行发言人 指出将下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点，将商业用房购房贷款最低首付比例下调至30%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent actions by the Trump administration against the Federal Reserve have raised expectations that Jerome Powell may remain on the board after his term ends in May, potentially creating a powerful counterbalance within the Fed, despite Powell's reluctance to take on such a role [2][3]. Group 1 - The issuance of a grand jury subpoena to the Federal Reserve by the Justice Department is seen as an unprecedented move, indicating Trump's attempt to influence monetary policy [2]. - Powell's supporters and Trump's opponents may welcome the possibility of Powell staying on the board, but analysts suggest this could create confusion in the markets regarding who holds real power and the direction of interest rates [3]. - Powell's strong rebuttal to the subpoena has led to widespread speculation about his potential decision to remain on the board, despite previous expectations that he would leave [5][4]. Group 2 - The potential appointment of a new chair by Trump could be complicated by the strong opposition to the subpoena, with key Republican senators vowing to oppose any nominations until the situation is resolved [7]. - The impact on monetary policy is currently viewed as limited, with the Fed having recently lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive time, while signaling a possible pause in rate changes pending more data [8]. - If Powell chooses to stay, it would delay Trump's ability to nominate another member to the seven-person board, which holds significant power over personnel and regulatory decisions [9].

最新一轮对科技股的热情延续至周五，推动美国股指期货走高。小盘股同样上涨，投资者继续扩大配置 范围、分散风险敞口。日元猛烈的抛售暂停，警惕官方干预。 截至发稿，道指期货涨0.08%，标普500指数期货涨0.31%，纳指期货涨0.61%。 尽管欧洲市场科技板块表现相对偏淡，但摩根士丹利将欧洲人工智能"风向标"阿斯麦的目标价上调 40%。 亚洲科技股指数周五创下历史新高；在前一交易日，美国芯片股指数也刷新纪录。 纳斯达克100指数期货上涨0.6%，表现优于标普500指数期货。道琼斯工业指数和标准普尔500指数在前 一交易日收盘时分别仅较历史收盘高点低0.3%和0.5%，而小盘股罗素2000指数则创下历史新高。 除了几家公司公布财报，本周企业财报相对清淡。M&T银行和PNC金融公司将公布财报，道富银行也 将公布财报。 台积电重燃AI热情 本周临近周末的科技股反弹，源于台积电对资本开支与营收前景的展望；在估值与回报疑虑一度拖累科 技板块之后，该指引重新点燃了围绕人工智能的乐观情绪。随着美国经济展现韧性，科技股领涨与更广 泛市场参与之间的平衡态势预计仍将延续，从而带动更多股票受益。 纽约梅隆银行高级宏观策略师Geoff ...

Core Viewpoint - Concerns regarding attacks on the Federal Reserve's independence could negatively impact inflation, as stated by Chicago Fed President Goolsbee [2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Goolsbee emphasized that any infringement on the independence of the central bank is problematic, warning that it could lead to a resurgence of inflation [2]. - He supported Powell's statement that inquiries into construction projects could be seen as political pressure from President Trump regarding interest rates [3][5]. Group 2: Powell's Tenure and Future - Powell's term as chair will end in May, but he can remain as a governor until 2028 [4]. - Goolsbee praised Powell as a "first-ballot Hall of Fame member" for managing to lower inflation without triggering a recession [6]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - Goolsbee indicated that the Fed should focus on reducing inflation, given the strong employment market, and suggested that there is room for interest rate cuts later this year if inflation trends back to 2% [6].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that economic activity has improved across most districts, but cost pressures from tariffs persist [1] - Companies are beginning to pass on tariff costs to consumers due to depleted inventories and increased pressure to maintain profit margins [1] - Concerns are rising about inflationary pressures if companies continue to transfer costs to consumers, which could impact overall economic conditions in the U.S. [4] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is causing companies to be cautious in long-term production planning, potentially disrupting manufacturing investment [4] - The Federal Reserve may face a dilemma in its monetary policy, as rising inflation from tariffs could prevent it from lowering interest rates to stimulate economic growth [4] - The U.S. Supreme Court has not yet ruled on the legality of the Trump administration's tariff policies, which has led to ongoing legal challenges [7] Group 3 - The legal basis for the tariffs is under scrutiny, particularly whether the invocation of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act violates U.S. tariff laws [7] - If the Supreme Court rules against the tariffs, the government could face significant financial repercussions, including potential refunds amounting to hundreds of billions [8] - A balanced or compromise solution may be sought by judges to avoid exacerbating economic and fiscal impacts while addressing potential executive overreach [9] Group 4 - The U.S. government has announced new tariffs on certain imported semiconductors and related products, indicating that tariffs will remain a core tool in domestic and foreign policy [9] - A ruling that supports the government's tariff measures could strengthen its global tariff strategy, potentially undermining the multilateral trading system established post-World War II [10] - Consideration may be given to establishing broader tariff exemptions for essential goods to mitigate domestic inflation and public discontent [10]

责任编辑：刘明亮 日本最大的反对党和前执政联盟伙伴宣布合并，组成一个新的政党，借以阻挠首相高市早苗通过提前选 举来巩固权力的努力。 据联合领导人野田佳彦和齐藤铁夫，新党派"中道改革联合"（Centrist Reform Alliance）已于周五上午正 式注册。此前野田佳彦是立宪民主党代表，而齐藤铁夫是公明党代表。 目前人气颇高的高市早苗可能在未来几周提前举行大选，媒体报道称投票日可能在2月8日。 日本最大的反对党和前执政联盟伙伴宣布合并，组成一个新的政党，借以阻挠首相高市早苗通过提前选 举来巩固权力的努力。 据联合领导人野田佳彦和齐藤铁夫，新党派"中道改革联合"（Centrist Reform Alliance）已于周五上午正 式注册。此前野田佳彦是立宪民主党代表，而齐藤铁夫是公明党代表。 目前人气颇高的高市早苗可能在未来几周提前举行大选，媒体报道称投票日可能在2月8日。 新党派领导人在记者会上说，该党将致力于改善普通民众的生活。野田表示，他们将在保持财政纪律、 不发行额外赤字债券的前提下，寻求降低消费税。他还谈到了日元疲软和货币政策。 "日元疲软无疑给民众带来了痛苦，"野田佳彦说，"并加剧了通胀。"他指出 ...

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley indicates that the global economy is at a highly differentiated crossroads, with market expectations for liquidity easing potentially misaligned with reality [1] - The expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut rates early in the year has largely evaporated due to strong U.S. consumer data, pushing the first rate cut expectation to mid-year [1][5] - The first half of 2024 is expected to operate under a "high interest rate, strong dollar" monetary environment, leading to increased asset price volatility [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy shows a confusing yet resilient divergence, with consumer spending growing at a strong annualized rate of 3.5% despite signs of labor market weakness [2][5] - Inflation, particularly driven by tariff costs, is becoming a more pressing threat than recession, with a significant portion of tariff cost pass-through to consumers still pending [5] Group 3: Eurozone and UK Economic Challenges - The Eurozone is experiencing stagnation, with the composite PMI dropping from 52.8 to 51.9, indicating a loss of growth momentum [6] - Core inflation in the Eurozone has decreased to 2.3%, supporting the case for potential rate cuts by the European Central Bank in June and September [8] - The UK economy remains weak, with labor demand softening and inflation expected to return to target levels by April 2026, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in February [8] Group 4: Japan's Monetary Policy Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Bank of Japan will maintain its interest rates throughout 2026, contrary to market expectations for rate hikes, due to anticipated declines in core CPI [9][12] - Political uncertainty in Japan, including potential early elections, adds to the challenges for monetary policy tightening [12] Group 5: China's Economic Strategy - China is expected to increase its share of the global export market from 15% to 16.5% by 2030, reflecting a strong export outlook [13] - The recent PMI data indicates the effectiveness of prior fiscal expansion, with continued fiscal support expected in 2026 [14] Group 6: Emerging Markets Dynamics - India is projected to be a growth engine in emerging markets, with a growth forecast of 7.4% for the fiscal year 2026, driven by policy easing and strong demand [17] - Latin America is poised for a policy shift towards more market-friendly approaches, with Brazil expected to cut rates significantly while facing moderate economic slowdown [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the policy side releases positive signals again, but corporate earnings have not significantly improved, so the stock index may need adjustment after continuous rise; the gold market is in high - level oscillation due to the game around the Fed's monetary policy independence and the Iran situation, waiting for a direction [31][32] - In the medium to long term, the valuation of the stock index will be dragged down by the decline in corporate earnings growth at the molecular end, and the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, so the stock index will maintain a wide - range oscillation; the US tax - cut policy will gradually stimulate the economy, the Fed's room for further interest rate cuts will narrow, and gold may face a deep adjustment [32] Summary by Relevant Catalog Macroeconomic Data - In December 2025, China's CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year (previous value 0.7%), PPI fell 1.9% year - on - year with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points. Imports increased 5.7% and exports increased 6.6% year - on - year, with the growth rates accelerating by 3.8 and 0.7 percentage points respectively. Industrial deflation pressure has been relieved [6] - In the US, in December 2025, the number of new non - farm payrolls was 50,000, the unemployment rate dropped from 4.6% to 4.4%, and CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year with the same increase as last month, indicating a slow recovery in the labor market but still high inflation [19] Stock Index Fundamental Data - In late December 2025, China's broad money supply M2 increased 8.5% year - on - year (previous value 8%), M1 increased 3.8% year - on - year (previous value 4.9%) with the growth rate slowing for three consecutive months, and the gap between M1 and M2 widened [14] - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose to 267.3143 billion yuan, a record high. The central bank conducted 951.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 900 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net injection of 1712.8 billion yuan [16] Gold Fundamental Data - The growth of Shanghai gold futures warehouse receipts and inventory has slowed down, and the COMEX gold inventory in New York has decreased slightly, indicating a relief of delivery pressure [29] Strategy Recommendation - The effects of the "anti - involution" and elimination of backward production capacity policies are gradually emerging. Commodity prices have risen, industrial deflation pressure has been relieved, and the profit of the upstream raw material processing industry is expected to improve [31] - Although corporate earnings have not significantly improved, the central bank's measures may boost risk appetite. After the continuous rise of the stock index, attention should be paid to the callback risk [31] - The US labor market is slowly recovering, but inflation risk remains. The Fed officials think there is no need for further interest rate cuts in the short term. The gold market is in high - level oscillation and may face a directional choice [31] Next Week's Focus - Important data such as China's December fixed - asset investment, industrial added value, and consumer retail [33]