【导读】 全球投资者正在为市场动荡做准备，以色列股市创新高 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好啊，继续关注中东局势的最新进展。 以色列股市创新高 6月22日，以色列股市开盘，盘中一度上涨超过1.5%，在美国对伊朗核设施发动袭击后创下历史新高。 蓝筹股指数TA-35（TA35）在早盘交易中上涨1.6%，随后涨幅略有收窄。 迪拜Tellimer的策略师Hasnain Malik表示："市场关注的是战争是否会蔓延到其他国家，目前尚无证据表明会如此。比较温和的解 读是，美国的干预可能会加快战争的结束，但这还有待观察。" 伊朗誓言要对袭击实施"永久性的后果"，并表示保留一切维护主权的手段。评论人士和官员们纷纷猜测 伊朗的可能反应 ：攻击美国 在该地区的军事基地，或者袭击以色列在沙漠城镇迪莫纳附近的核研究中心， 抑或是强化 其自身的核计划。 上周，以色列连续五个交易日股市上涨，在以色列对伊朗的核设施和军事目标发动打击的背景下，股市累计上涨约6%。 此外，沙特阿拉伯Tadawul综合指数上涨1%，阿尔拉吉银行（Al Rajhi Bank）走高。 截至迪拜时间上午10:39，科威特证券交易所的Premier Market指数上涨0 ...

Group 1 - The Israeli stock market reached a historical high, with the TA-125 index rising by 1% and the TA-35 benchmark index increasing by 1.2% on June 22 [1][2] - The Saudi Tadawul All Share Index rose by 1%, while the Kuwait Stock Exchange's Premier Market Index and Qatar's benchmark index both increased by 0.7%. Conversely, the Egyptian stock index fell by 1.5% [1] - The escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict is marked by the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, which has introduced a new phase of geopolitical risk [3] Group 2 - U.S. President Trump announced that key Iranian nuclear facilities have been "completely destroyed," indicating close cooperation between the U.S. and Israel [2] - Iran's Foreign Minister condemned the U.S. attack, stating it would have "lasting consequences" and that Iran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty and interests [2] - The Iranian military reportedly used the "Khyber" missile, believed to be the "Hormuz-4" long-range ballistic missile, which has a range of 2,000 kilometers and a warhead weight of 1,500 kilograms [2] Group 3 - The asset management company Hanya Investment expressed concerns that the U.S. bombing signifies a significant escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, potentially prolonging regional tensions and increasing geopolitical risks [3] - The firm highlighted that prolonged conflict could lead to supply disruptions, exacerbating inflationary pressures and negatively impacting growth expectations across the region [3] - There is an expectation of a flight to safety among investors, with a potential strengthening of the U.S. dollar and a general weakening of Asian risk assets due to ongoing geopolitical instability and high oil prices [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The cost side is affected by the intensification of the Israel - Iran conflict in the Middle East, leading to a significant increase in oil prices. If the conflict escalates and affects energy facilities or the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices may face further upward risks; if the situation is controlled and parties seek peace talks, the geopolitical premium may decline again [1]. - In the gasoline and aromatics sectors, the gasoline crack spread in the US has retraced again. With the substitution of new energy, the upside potential for gasoline crack spreads is limited, and the blending demand this year is not worth much expectation. The intermittent blending demand at home and abroad can be basically met by naphtha, which restricts the enthusiasm of aromatics entering the gasoline pool [1]. - For PX, the short - term unilateral trend of PX/PTA/PF/PR is bullish under the Israel - Iran conflict, but if the conflict eases, prices may fall. The supply - demand situation of PX remains tight due to unplanned overseas plant shutdowns, while the tightness of PTA's spot market liquidity has eased [5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Price and Spread - The report analyzes the trends of TA, PX, PF, and PR's main contracts, their basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as various processing fees and profit margins such as PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, short - fiber profits, and bottle - chip processing fees [8][9]. 2. PX and PTA Supply - This week, China's PX operating rate was 85.6% (down 0.2% week - on - week), and Asia's was 74.3% (down 1.3% week - on - week). Domestic PX load was basically stable, while overseas facilities had more changes. The Israel - Iran conflict led to the shutdown of PX plants in Iran and Israel, and the restart of Saudi Arabia's Rabigh aromatics plant was postponed. Several domestic PX plants are planned for maintenance at the end of the month, and the spot market is still short of goods [2]. - China's PTA operating rate was 79.1% (down 3.5% week - on - week), and the PTA spot processing fee was 412 yuan/ton (compared to 42 yuan last week). Some PTA plants reduced their loads or shut down as planned, and the tightness of the spot market's liquidity has eased [2]. 3. Inventory - The report presents the weekly social inventory of PTA, the monthly social inventory of PX, the total PTA warehouse receipts and forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [8][9]. 4. Demand - This week, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 65.0% (down 2.0% week - on - week), and the polyester operating rate was 92.0% (up 1.1% week - on - week). Domestic and foreign sales have entered the off - season, with terminal orders and operations showing a downward trend, but polyester has performed relatively well. After the raw material prices rose, there was a concentrated restocking, and the inventory of filament decreased. However, at high prices, the inventory pressure may increase [3]. 5. PF Supply, Demand, and Inventory - This week, the direct - spinning polyester staple fiber operating rate was 95.1% (up 3.0% week - on - week), the equity inventory days of polyester staple fiber factories were 12.1 days (up 0.6 days week - on - week), and the inventory of 1.4D polyester staple fiber increased. Affected by the Israel - Iran situation, the price of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber fluctuated upwards, but the increase was less than that of raw materials, and the processing margin was slightly compressed [3]. 6. PR Supply, Demand, and Inventory - This week, the bottle - chip factory operating rate (based on maximum capacity) was 80.7% (up 0.9%), the bottle - chip factory inventory was 17.4 days (up 1.9 days week - on - week), and the bottle - chip spot processing fee was 186 yuan/ton (down 129 yuan from last week). The overall transaction in the polyester bottle - chip market was average this week. Although some overseas customers made supplementary purchases, the processing fee is still under pressure in the short term. Major manufacturers have announced maintenance plans, which will have a greater impact on the bottle - chip load [4].

FICC周报 | 2025-06-22 伊以事件扰动持续，关注后续进展 市场分析 国内5月经济仍待夯实。5月国内数据好坏参半，5月投资数据整体走弱，尤其是地产边际压力再增，后续或将拖累 财政收入，及整个地产链条；同时出口也略有承压，5月"抢出口"成色一般，叠加美国5月零售销售走弱，前期需 求透支下，后续外需预计将承压；5月仅有消费表现韧性，6月20日新华社发布后续以旧换新国补将继续下达。面 对关税下的外需压力和内部的稳增长诉求，关注财政进一步加码的可能。6月9-10日，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议 在英国伦敦举行，落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致，就解 决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。关于7月9日到期的关税延后政策，6月12日特朗普政府首次公开承认其关税时间 表存在灵活性。欧盟也表示预计延期谈判。 美联储按兵不动，维持联邦基金利率目标区间4.25%-4.50%不变，符合市场预期。决议声明略掉关于失业率和通 胀风险更高的措辞，今年利率预测中位值不变、仍预计两次25基点降息，但利率点阵图显示，预计不降息者较上 次增三人至七人。鲍威尔称，预计未来数月通胀压力将因关税显著上升， ...

特朗普表示，美国和以色列作为一个团队进行了密切合作。 如果伊朗不能实现和平，美国会继续攻击 。 特朗普称，美军参谋长联席会议主 席凯恩以 及美国国防部长赫格塞思将于美国东部时间22日上午8时举行新闻发布会。 伊朗外长阿拉格齐22日在社交媒体发文说，美国袭击伊朗核设施"令人发指"，将会产生"持久后果"。伊朗保留一切捍卫主权、利益和人民安全的选项。 据CCTV国际时讯援引伊朗迈赫尔通讯社报道， 在当地时间今天（6月22日）早上对以色列的新一轮导弹袭击中，伊朗首次使用了"开伯尔"导弹。 据了解，"开伯尔"导弹很有可能指的就是伊朗此前曾公布的"霍拉姆沙赫尔-4"远程弹道导弹。据伊朗媒体此前报道，"霍拉姆沙赫尔-4"导弹被认为是"伊朗 破坏力最强的导弹"。 以伊冲突显著升级。 当地时间6月22日，以色列股市高开，TA-125指数上涨1%，创下历史新高，TA-35基准指数上涨1.2%。沙特 阿 拉伯T adaw ul全股指数上涨1%。科威 特证券交易所高级市场指数上涨0.7%，卡塔尔基准股指上涨0.7%。埃及股指下跌1.5%。 截至发稿， 以色列 TA-35基准指数仍上涨1.1%。 此前，美国总统特朗普就袭击伊朗核设施发 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The price of gold is projected to reach a historical high of $3,500 per ounce by April 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions and a dollar credit crisis, highlighting the renewed focus on precious metals [2] - Gold has seen a year-to-date increase of 28.51%, reinforcing its status as a safe-haven asset amid inflationary risks in the U.S. [2] - Central banks' ongoing purchases of gold emphasize its unique role as a sovereign credit hedge [2] Group 2: Silver and Platinum Group Metals - Silver is expected to surpass $43.50 per ounce in 2025, with its essential role in 5G electronics and new energy batteries due to its conductivity [3] - The market for platinum is facing challenges due to reduced demand from traditional fuel vehicles, but hydrogen fuel cell vehicles present new opportunities [3] - The usage of platinum in vehicles has decreased from 1.1g/kW in 2000 to 0.17g/kW, prompting accelerated research into low-platinum catalysts [3] Group 3: Palladium and Rhodium Dynamics - Palladium's demand in automotive emissions control is declining, with its market share dropping from 75% in 2020 to 60% in 2025, while new demands in electronics and hydrogen fuel cells are emerging [4] - Rhodium prices have surged from 1,200 yuan per gram in 2020 to over 3,000 yuan per gram in 2025, driven by demand from hydrogen vehicles and 5G glass [4] - The development of rhodium-free catalysts in Japan poses a potential risk to rhodium prices if mass production occurs [4] Group 4: Recycling and Geopolitical Risks - The precious metals recycling market in China is expected to expand, with new technologies increasing recovery rates to over 95% [4] - Geopolitical risks remain high, as 80% of rhodium and 40% of palladium supply relies on South Africa and Russia, making the supply chain vulnerable to disruptions [4] - The interplay between resource concentration and technological breakthroughs is creating uncertainties in the precious metals market [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - Each precious metal faces unique challenges and opportunities, with gold balancing monetary and medical applications, platinum undergoing energy transition pains, and palladium and rhodium navigating traditional and emerging demands [5] - The precious metals market in 2025 transcends simple safe-haven investments, serving as a lens to observe global industrial changes and geopolitical dynamics [5]

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict introduces a new phase of geopolitical risk, which is expected to negatively impact Asian risk assets due to their sensitivity to rising energy prices [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - The U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities marks a significant escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict [1] - Direct U.S. involvement may prolong tensions in the region, increasing the risk of supply disruptions [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - A prolonged conflict could exacerbate inflationary pressures and drag down growth expectations across Asia [1] - The likelihood of a swift resolution to the conflict has diminished, prompting investors to reassess market risks [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Anticipation of increased geopolitical instability and high oil prices may lead to a flight to safety, with a stronger demand for the U.S. dollar [1] - Asian risk assets are expected to weaken as a result of these market dynamics [1]

特朗普宣布对伊朗核设施实施"成功攻击" ，市场正面临新风险挑战，将投资者置于前所未有的不确定性之中，参与者重新评估各类资产的风险敞口。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间6月21日，美国总统特朗普宣布，美国已完成对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处核设施的袭击， 伊朗关键的核浓缩设施已被彻底 摧毁，如果伊朗"不能实现和平"， 美国可能会攻击更多目标 。 这一军事行动与此前两周的谈判预期形成鲜明对比， 标志着该地区安全和政治格局进入一个不可预测、且更加危险复杂的阶段。 投资者正密切关注伊朗可能的反击措施，特别是对霍尔木兹海峡这一关键能源通道的潜在威胁。著名的在线竞猜网站Polymarket上，对于 "伊朗是否会在7月前封 锁霍尔木兹海峡"的概率已经升至54%。 原油市场开始权衡最坏情形 。Oxford Economics分析师建模显示，最严重情况下全球油价可能跳升至每桶130美元左右，推动美国通胀率在今年年底接近6%，这 将"彻底破坏今年美国降息的任何可能性"。 美股短期可能承压但历史表明随后将反弹 ，美元则面临复杂的双重影响。 黄金方面，德意志银行指出，应为黄金在未来几周内重建风险溢价做好准备， 当前黄金地缘政治风险溢价 ...

美国加州州政府表示，正在评估伊朗遭到袭击后的任何潜在影响。 ...

Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions and Market Impact - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are redefining the global market landscape, with direct military confrontation between Israel and Iran creating unprecedented uncertainty for investors [1] - The recent U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities mark a significant escalation in the conflict, prompting market participants to reassess risk exposure across various asset classes [1] - Oil prices are expected to rise significantly, with Oxford Economics modeling a worst-case scenario of approximately $130 per barrel, potentially pushing U.S. inflation close to 6% by year-end [1] Group 2: Oil Market Volatility - The oil market has experienced significant volatility, with WTI crude futures rising about 10% and Brent crude futures increasing 18% since June 10, reaching a near five-month high of $79.04 [2] - Traders are exiting oil futures positions at record speed, with a drop of 367 million barrels in open contracts, representing a decline of about 7% since June 12 [2] - The volatility in the oil market is attributed to the unpredictability of U.S. actions regarding the conflict, leading to increased pressure on derivative books [2] Group 3: Transportation Costs and Risks - Transportation costs for crude oil from the Middle East to China have surged nearly 90% since the Israeli attacks, with shipping rates for gasoline and aviation fuel also rising significantly [3] - The safety of the Strait of Hormuz is under close scrutiny, as it accounts for about one-fifth of global oil production and consumption, with GPS signals of nearly 1,000 vessels being disrupted [3] - Recent incidents, including oil tankers colliding and exploding, highlight the increasing risks faced by vessels in the region [3] Group 4: Currency and Stock Market Reactions - The escalation of the Middle East conflict has a complex impact on the U.S. dollar, which may initially benefit from safe-haven demand but could weaken in the long term due to geopolitical uncertainties [4] - The U.S. stock market has shown a relatively mild reaction to the conflict, with the S&P 500 index initially declining but stabilizing thereafter, indicating potential for a rebound based on historical trends [4][5] - Historical data suggests that the S&P 500 typically experiences a slight decline in the initial weeks of conflict but tends to recover in the following months [5] Group 5: Gold Market Dynamics - The rapid decline in geopolitical risk premium for gold may be misleading, as historical patterns indicate that such premiums often peak 8-20 trading days after a crisis [10][12] - Despite the ongoing conflict, gold prices have recently dropped, with spot gold falling below $3,370, marking a decline of over 1.8% [7] - Deutsche Bank anticipates that gold will likely rebuild its risk premium in the coming weeks due to the severity of the Israel-Iran conflict and U.S. military actions [12]