Report Overview - Report Date: June 4, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Wang Rong, Liu Yuxuan [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - During the holiday, the Russia-Ukraine conflict flared up again, leading to a rebound in gold prices, and silver followed suit [1] - The trend strength for both gold and silver is 2, indicating a bullish outlook [5] Summary by Section 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices and Changes**: - Gold:沪金2508昨日收盘价783.10，日涨幅1.46%，夜盘收盘价782.08，夜盘跌幅0.46%；Comex黄金2508昨日收盘价3313.10，跌幅0.88%等 [2] - Silver:沪银2508昨日收盘价8456，日涨幅2.89%，夜盘收盘价8476.00，夜盘涨幅0.20%；Comex白银2508昨日收盘价33.075，跌幅1.09%等 [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: - Gold:沪金2508合约对2512合约价差昨日成交131,022，较前日减少104,991；Comex黄金2508昨日成交182,769，较前日减少42,281等 [2] - Silver:沪银2508昨日成交547,586，较前日减少110,657；Comex白银2508昨日成交40,787，较前日减少8,748等 [2] - **ETF and Inventory Changes**: - Gold: SPDR黄金ETF持仓昨日为933.07，较前日增加3；Comex黄金（金衡盎司）（前日）库存为38,349,605，较前日减少439,589 [2] - Silver: SLV白银ETF持仓（前天）为14,351.82，较前日增加48；Comex白银（金衡盎司）（前日）库存为495,395,012，较前日减少612,969 [2] - **Price Spreads**: - Gold:黄金T+D对AU2506价差昨日为 -4.98，较前日无变动；沪金2506合约对2512合约价差昨日为5.22，较前日减少0.36等 [2] - Silver:白银T+D对AG2506价差昨日为26，较前日增加4；沪银2502合约对2504合约价差昨日为49，较前日减少10等 [2] - **Exchange Rates**: - 欧元兑美元昨日为1.14，较前日增加0.01；美元兑日元昨日为142.78，较前日增加0.05等 [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - Trade winds affected the US stock market, with the S&P 500 index having a V-shaped reversal. The US dollar fell to a nearly three-year low, gold rose nearly 3% in the futures market, and US crude oil rose over 5% [4] - The US accused China of violating the consensus of the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks, and China's Ministry of Commerce firmly rejected the unreasonable accusation [6] - The EU warned the US before the negotiation that if the negotiation fails, countermeasures will take effect by July 14 at the latest [6] - The Trump administration asked the appellate court for help due to the受阻推进 of tariff policies. The US Commerce Secretary said the president has the right to take other actions even if the tariff policy is cancelled [6] - The US May ISM manufacturing index contracted for three consecutive months, and the import index hit a 16-year low [6] - Fed governor Waller said there is no evidence of long-term inflation rising and still expects a rate cut later this year [6] - Trump said the US does not allow Iran to conduct any uranium enrichment activities [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views Overall The report analyzes various commodities in the breeding, livestock, soft commodities, and energy - chemical sectors, providing supply - demand analysis, price trend predictions, and investment strategies for each commodity. [1][6] Livestock and Soft Commodities - **Pig**: The supply of pigs is sufficient, and the speculative demand may support the pig price at the bottom. It is not recommended for farmers to short at present. Speculative clients can go long, and farmers are advised to sell at high prices. [1][2] - **Sugar**: Zheng sugar follows the weak oscillation of raw sugar. In the medium - long term, the main producing countries have an expected increase in production, presenting a near - strong and far - weak pattern. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options. [4][5] Energy - Chemical - **Crude Oil**: With OPEC+ increasing production and geopolitical uncertainties, the short - term oil price is supported, but it is under pressure in the medium - term. It is recommended to sell out - of - the money put options for SC2507. [6][7] - **PVC**: The supply of PVC is increasing, while the demand is weak, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to stop falling in the short - term, but the driving force for a significant increase is limited. It is recommended to close out short positions. [10][11] Summary by Commodity Pig - **Supply**: As of April 2025, the national sow inventory was 40.38 million, with a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. It is expected to remain stable or increase in May, and the supply of pigs is sufficient. [1] - **Demand**: The frozen product storage rate is at a historical low, and the demand is weak. The speculative demand may increase if the price drops, which will support the pig price. [2] - **Strategy**: Do not short for farmers; speculators can go long; farmers can sell at high prices. [2] Sugar - **International**: In the 2025/26 season, Brazil's production is affected by rainfall, while India and Thailand are expected to increase production, and the global sugar production is expected to increase by 8.6 million tons to 189.3 million tons. [4] - **Domestic**: The sales progress is accelerating, and the import is expected to increase. The short - term sugar price will be range - bound, and the long - term is in a near - strong and far - weak pattern. [5] - **Strategy**: Sell out - of - the money call options. [5] Crude Oil - **Supply**: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July. The US shale oil production is limited, and the heavy - oil resources are tight. [6] - **Demand**: The demand from refineries is increasing, but the diesel market is not optimistic. The SPR demand of major oil - consuming countries is increasing. [8] - **Inventory**: The US commercial crude oil inventory has decreased, and the global oil inventory is expected to remain low in the second quarter. [8] - **Strategy**: Sell out - of - the money put options for SC2507. [7] PVC - **Cost**: The calcium carbide price in Inner Mongolia is stable, and the inventory is accumulating. [10] - **Supply**: The operating rate is increasing, and there will be new device production in June - July. [10] - **Demand**: The downstream stocking sentiment is weak, and the export has uncertainties. [11] - **Inventory**: The industry is in a state of destocking. [11] - **Strategy**: Close out short positions. [10]

苯乙烯产业日报 2025-06-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 7018 386476 | -122 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, 16850 7月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 374550 7018 | -62793 -122 | | | | | 手) | | | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | | | | | | | | 303349 | 21711 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | -22091 | -5906 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 408567 8040 | 22756 仓单数量:苯乙烯:总计(日,手) -64 苯乙烯:FOB韩国:中间价(日,美元/吨) | 0 874 | -5067 -11 | | | 苯乙烯:CFR中国:中 ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20250603：或有反弹 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/3 指标 单位 今值 | | | | 变动 近期趋势 | | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 16,400.00 | | | | -1.06% | | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 16,620.00 | 沪铅期现价格 | | | -0.78% | | | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 -220.00 | | | | -45.00 | | | | 升贴水-上海 元/吨 -20.00 | | | | - | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -22.17 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -65.20 | | | | 2.09 -3.80 | | | | 价差 | | | | | | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -85.00 10.00 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 | | | | -50.00 - | | | | 铅 沪铅连二 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 3 日 对二甲苯：多 PX 空 PTA PTA：多 PX 空 PTA MEG：多 PTA 空 MEG 逢高离场 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG | 基本面数据 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | 2025-05-30 | 6618 | 4700 | 4349 | 6384 | 3428 | | 2025-05-29 | 6788 | 4814 | 4359 | 6500 | 3558 | | 2025-05-28 | 6590 | 4672 | 4311 | 6386 | 3469 | | 2025-05-27 | 6706 | 4740 | 4387 | 6456 | 3512 | | 2025-05-26 | 6674 | 4724 | ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 3 日 PVC：低位震荡，短期不宜追空 | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | | chenjiaxin023887@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | PVC 基本面数据 | | | | | 09合约期货价格 | 华东现货价格 | 基差 | 9-1月差 | | 4764 | 4680 | -84 | -39 | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 【现货消息】 国内 PVC 现货市场价格维持小区间震荡，现货一口价表现坚挺，盘面价格小空间震荡，实盘成交重心 依然偏低，基本面供应增长预期不变，需求未有改善，市场成交承压，华东地区电石法五型在 4620-4750 元/吨，乙烯法在 4850-5100 元/吨。 【市场状况分析】 基本面看，当前西北氯碱一体化仍有利润，PVC 高产量，高库存的结构难以缓解。市场持续做空氯碱利 润，PVC 期货价格创年内新低。不过由于 PVC 估值低位，空头止盈意愿也较强，因此不宜追空。 高产量的结构短期难以改变：PVC 检修量低于 2023 年同期 ...

2025 年 6 月 3 日 沥青：跟随原油反弹，短线震荡为主 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi023726@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2506 | 元/吨 | 3,452 | -1.57% | 3,452 | 0.00% | | | BU2507 | 元/吨 | 3,457 | -1.62% | 3,457 | 0.00% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2506 | 手 | 18,125 | 1,173 | 13,727 | (8,388) | | | BU2507 | 手 | 295,344 | (3,202) | 100,590 | (12,522) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 91510 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 06 月 03 日 铅：区间运行 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16620 | -0.78% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1964 | 0.18% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 52931 | 15856 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 6771 | 1184 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 53330 | 7334 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 144961 | 5801 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -20 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -23.5 | -0.5 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -85 | -50 | 进口升贴 ...

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 价格快速下杀，关注供给端变化 [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 新疆大厂部分复产，但由于工业硅价格快速下跌，市场亦传言 其后续复产规划将暂且搁置。6 月西南进入丰水期后，预计仍 有少量工厂计划复产。需求端仍无明显起色，虽然有机硅开工 率回升，但多晶硅复产不及预期，铝合金方面维持刚需采购。 多晶硅厂家近期粉单招标价格下跌至 8800-9000 元/吨，有机硅 亦以 521#替代 421#，521#采购价格在 8300-8400 元/吨。目前 盘面价格几乎跌破全行业现金成本线，基差快速走强，部分贸 易商开始陆续囤货，后续关注供给端的进一步变化。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 6 月签单逐步展开，现货成交价格略有下调。考虑龙头企业率 先复产乐山产能，6 月硅片排产上调至 9.3 万吨。此外，市场 传言某新疆二三线硅料厂二期产能有复产计划，后续根据实际 进展我们将对平衡表再进行调整。根据 SMM，截至 5 月 29 日，中国多晶硅厂库存 27 万吨，环比+1 万吨。近期下游备货 使得原材料库存变动较大，但备货主力仍为前期原材料库存较 高的几家硅片厂，其余硅片厂无太多原材料囤货。在多晶硅现 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PX, hold the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA, and maintain the operation of going long on PX and short on naphtha/PTA as the supply - demand pattern is tight [8]. - For PTA, it is in a high - level volatile market on a single - side basis. Hold the position of compressing PTA processing fees. Adopt the idea of going long on the spread when it is low in the medium - term. The PTA market is still in a de - stocking pattern and the spread will remain strong [8]. - For MEG, although the inventory is continuously decreasing and the basis is rising, due to further production cuts by polyester factories, go long on PTA and short on MEG. The month - spread is strong in the short - term but not recommended for further chasing [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Prices and Changes**: On May 29, 2025, PX主力收盘 was 6788, PTA主力收盘 was 4814, MEG主力收盘 was 4359, PF主力收盘 was 6500, and SC主力收盘 was 3558, with daily changes of 3.0%, 3.0%, 1.1%, 1.8%, and 2.6% respectively [2]. - **Month - spreads**: The PX (9 - 1) month - spread on May 29 was 248, with a daily change of 62; PTA (9 - 1) was 198, with a daily change of 50; MEG (9 - 1) was 79, with a daily change of 14; PF(7 - 8) was 22, with a daily change of - 2; PX - EB07 was - 304, with a daily change of 12 [2]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The PTA09 - 0.65PX09 spread on May 29 was 402, with a daily change of 13; PTA09 - MEG09 was 455, with a daily change of 94; PTA07 - PF07 was - 1562, with a daily change of 34; PF07盘面加工费 was 801, with a daily change of - 26; PTA09 - LU09 was 1350, with a daily change of 59 [2]. - **Basis and Other Spreads**: On May 29, the PX basis was 145, PTA basis was 195, MEG basis was 147, PF basis was - 50, and PX - naphtha spread was 274. The daily changes of PX, PTA, MEG, and PF bases were - 198, 10, - 5, and - 10 respectively [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On May 29, PTA仓单数 was 56248, 乙二醇仓单数 was 10239, 短纤仓单数 was 0, PX仓单数 was 0, and SC仓单数 was 4029000 [2]. 2. Market Overview - **PX Market**: On May 29, the PX price rose. Three July Asian spot transactions were at 857, 857, 857.5 respectively. The PX valuation was 852 dollars/ton, up 16 dollars from the 28th. The rise was due to the market's optimistic attitude after the US trade court blocked Trump's tariff policy and short - term supply tightness [4][5]. - **PTA Market**: In the Chinese mainland, the Nengtou 100 - million - ton and Taihua 150 - million - ton PTA plants restarted, while the Dushan Energy 300 - million - ton plant was under maintenance. By Thursday, the PTA load dropped to 75.7%, and the current PTA operating rate was around 81.6% [5]. - **MEG Market**: As of May 29, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 59.83% (up 1.58% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) was 57.19% (down 4.06% from the previous period) [6]. - **Polyester Market**: The operating load of large - scale polyester filament factories remained stable this week. By Thursday, the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester filament was around 72%. The overall polyester load in the Chinese mainland dropped to around 91.8%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on the 29th were differentiated, with an average sales rate of 6 - 70% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber in Fujian were better than those in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, with an average sales rate of 111% by 3:00 pm [6][7].