Group 1: Currency and Economic Policies - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced the addition of the Chinese Yuan as a settlement currency for its clearing house, set to launch in December 2025 [1] - The U.S. job market is facing challenges, with a reported decrease of 9,100 non-farm jobs in October, contrasting with a previous increase of 33,000 jobs [1] - The Chicago Fed President expressed concerns over the lack of key inflation data due to the government shutdown, indicating a need for caution in future interest rate decisions [1][2] Group 2: Central Bank Decisions - The Bank of England maintained its interest rate at 4%, marking the first pause in its rate-cutting cycle since August of the previous year, amidst internal divisions regarding future rate cuts [2] - The Norwegian central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at 4.00%, citing ongoing inflation concerns despite a slight decrease in core inflation [2] - Malaysia's central bank held its overnight policy rate steady at 2.75%, aligning with market expectations [3] Group 3: Market Reactions - U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.84%, the S&P 500 down 1.12%, and the Nasdaq down 1.9% [4] - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.083% [5] - International precious metal futures saw declines, with COMEX gold futures down 0.20% to $3,984.80 per ounce [5]

来源：市场资讯 11月6日，昨日黄金呈现震荡整理走势。亚盘开盘后金价展开反弹，最高触及3980美元上方后承压回 落，但下行幅度有限，在3950美元上方获得支撑后再度收复失地。随后价格基本维持在3980美元附近窄 幅波动，最终收于3978美元，日线录得一根小阳线。 周四（11月6日）美国联邦政府停摆已进入第36天，刷新了自1879年以来的最长停摆纪录。持续的僵局 可能导致全美航空系统自本周五起削减10%的计划航班，进一步加剧经济混乱，推升市场避险情绪。此 外，美国最高法院大法官对特朗普大规模征收关税的合法性提出质疑。若相关关税政策被推翻，美国财 政赤字可能急剧扩大，进而增强黄金的避险吸引力。 然而，另一方面，美国ADP就业数据强于市场预期，ISM非制造业PMI也表现强劲，这些因素导致市场 对美联储12月降息的预期进一步降温。美元指数刷新近五个月高点，限制了黄金的上涨动能。整体来 看，黄金的避险属性与强势美元及降息预期降温形成多空拉锯，市场情绪趋于谨慎。建议各位投资者在 操作上保持稳健，合理控制仓位。 从技术上来看，昨日黄金主体结构是走震荡路线的，短线结构重心略被上抬，导致隔夜走势区间进一步 缩窄，今日行情异动的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that after a sell-off, spot gold prices are gradually recovering to the range of $3980 - $3990, but the current momentum struggles to challenge the psychological barrier of $4000 [1] - The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.16%, marking a one-month high, and if it climbs to 4.21%, it may boost the dollar and pressure gold market sentiment [1] - Market adjustments regarding interest rate cut expectations will have a significant impact on gold in the coming weeks, with traders pricing in a 61% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [1] Group 2 - The upcoming traditional seasonal bullish cycle for precious metals is expected from December to January [1]

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold prices have gradually recovered to the range of $3980-$3990 after a sell-off, but current price momentum appears insufficient to challenge the psychological level of $4000 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 4.16%, reaching a one-month high, which could continue to support the dollar and exert pressure on the gold market [1] - The bond market is showing signs of an independent trend, influenced by slightly better-than-expected U.S. private sector economic data, which may impact the Federal Reserve's decision in December [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Traders are currently pricing in a 61% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, but this is not guaranteed [1] - Any adjustments to the market's pricing of rate cut expectations will have a significant impact on gold in the coming weeks [1] Group 3: Seasonal Trends - The upcoming period from December to January is traditionally a bullish season for precious metals [1]

Group 1: Dollar Index Movement - On November 4, the dollar index broke through the 100-point mark, reaching its highest level since August 2025[2] - The increase in the dollar index is supported by rising U.S. Treasury yields, which increased from approximately 4.0% to around 4.1%[3] - The market's expectation for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve dropped from 92% to 69% following comments from Fed Chair Powell[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales showed a month-on-month increase of 0.6% in August, significantly above the market expectation of 0.2%[5] - The consumer confidence index for October was reported at 53.6, slightly down from 55.1 in September but up from a low of 52.2 in Q2[5] - The manufacturing PMI for October was recorded at 48.7, with new orders showing an upward trend, indicating a potential recovery in domestic demand[5] Group 3: External Factors Influencing the Dollar - Political instability in Japan and Europe has weakened the yen and euro, contributing to the dollar's strength[8] - The U.S. government shutdown has led to tighter liquidity conditions, with bank reserves dropping to $2.8 trillion, the lowest level in 2025[11] - The overnight secured funding rate (SOFR) surged to 4.22% on October 31, indicating a tightening liquidity environment[11] Group 4: Future Outlook - The dollar index is expected to fluctuate around the 100-point mark in Q4 2025, influenced by various factors including government reopening and judicial decisions on tariffs[19] - The potential appointment of a new Fed Chair may lean towards dovish signals, which could lead to a decline in the dollar index[19] - The outcome of the U.S. Supreme Court hearing on tariffs could significantly impact market expectations and the dollar's trajectory[20]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Wednesday saw a slight rebound in precious metal prices, with gold and silver maintaining an overall oscillatory pattern. The U.S. ADP employment data exceeded expectations, and the number of newly - employed people stopped falling and rebounded, recovering from the previous two months' weak employment situation. After the data disclosure, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded slightly, while other assets showed a relatively calm performance. Overseas equities oscillated, and commodities rebounded strongly in the short - term [1][4]. - Precious metal prices currently lack significant drivers and are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term. The trading window in December should be closely watched, as the space for interest rate cuts next year may be speculated around the December FOMC meeting. Additionally, U.S. Treasury official Bessent stated that the nominee for the new Fed Chair is expected to be confirmed before Christmas, and the independence risk brought by personnel changes may become a bullish driver at that time. In the long run, excessive debt issuance and de - globalization are the core factors driving the decline of the U.S. dollar's credit. As a currency beyond sovereignty, gold remains the preferred asset to hedge against the risk of the U.S. dollar's credit. The global central banks' gold - buying trend persists, and the long - term price center of gold is expected to rise. The trend of silver remains consistent with that of gold. In the short term, it is expected to adjust oscillatory in tandem, and in the long run, the depreciation of credit currency will spill over, and the suppression of silver price elasticity due to the relaxed expectation of a U.S. soft landing, so the silver price center is expected to move up in the long term following gold [4][5]. - The weekly price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [3800, 4200], and the price of London silver is expected to be in the range of [46, 52] [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - In October, the U.S. ADP employment increased by 42,000 people, exceeding the expected increase of 28,000 people. The previous value was revised from a decrease of 32,000 people to a decrease of 29,000 people. ADP reported that last month, U.S. employment rebounded from two months of weakness, but the scope of the rebound was not broad. Education, healthcare, trade, transportation, and utilities led the growth, while employers in professional business services, information, leisure, and the hotel industry laid off employees for the third consecutive month. In October, the year - on - year salary increase remained the same as the previous month, with 4.5% for those who did not change jobs and 6.7% for job - hoppers [2]. - The U.S. Treasury set the quarterly refinancing scale at $125 billion, in line with market expectations. It plans to issue $58 billion of 3 - year Treasury bonds on November 10, $42 billion of 10 - year Treasury bonds on November 12, and $25 billion of 30 - year Treasury bonds on November 13, and keep the new issuance auction scale of 10 - year inflation - protected bonds (TIPS) in January at $21 billion. The U.S. Treasury expects the auction market to remain stable for at least the next few quarters and plans to increase the Treasury issuance scale by mid - 2026 [2]. - The U.S. federal government's "shutdown" has entered its 36th day, breaking the previous record of 35 days from the end of 2018 to the beginning of 2019, becoming the longest - lasting government "shutdown" in U.S. history. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office stated that if the "shutdown" lasts for six weeks, the economic loss will rise to $11 billion, and it is expected that the annual growth rate of the U.S. real GDP in the fourth quarter will decline by 1 - 2 percentage points. The record - breaking "shutdown" has severely impacted people's livelihoods in areas such as U.S. aviation safety and food relief [3]. Price Logic - Wednesday witnessed a slight rebound in precious metal prices, with gold and silver maintaining an overall oscillatory pattern. The U.S. ADP employment data exceeded expectations, and the number of newly - employed people stopped falling and rebounded, recovering from the previous two months' weak employment situation. After the data disclosure, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded slightly, while other assets showed a relatively calm performance. Overseas equities oscillated, and commodities rebounded strongly in the short - term [1][4]. - Precious metal prices currently lack significant drivers and are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term. The trading window in December should be closely watched, as the space for interest rate cuts next year may be speculated around the December FOMC meeting. Additionally, U.S. Treasury official Bessent stated that the nominee for the new Fed Chair is expected to be confirmed before Christmas, and the independence risk brought by personnel changes may become a bullish driver at that time. In the long run, excessive debt issuance and de - globalization are the core factors driving the decline of the U.S. dollar's credit. As a currency beyond sovereignty, gold remains the preferred asset to hedge against the risk of the U.S. dollar's credit. The global central banks' gold - buying trend persists, and the long - term price center of gold is expected to rise. The trend of silver remains consistent with that of gold. In the short term, it is expected to adjust oscillatory in tandem, and in the long run, the depreciation of credit currency will spill over, and the suppression of silver price elasticity due to the relaxed expectation of a U.S. soft landing, so the silver price center is expected to move up in the long term following gold [4][5]. Outlook - The weekly price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [3800, 4200], and the price of London silver is expected to be in the range of [46, 52] [5].

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent international gold prices have shown significant volatility, with COMEX gold futures dropping from $4013/oz to $3941.30/oz, and silver futures closing at $46.90/oz [3] - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted 36 days, impacting market liquidity and driving asset value rebalancing, which has contributed to the strengthening of the dollar index and the decline in international gold prices [4][5] Group 2: Economic Factors - The prolonged government shutdown has created market uncertainty, leading to a preference for the dollar as a safe asset, which has put downward pressure on gold prices [5] - The market has adjusted its expectations for a December interest rate cut, reducing the probability from 90% to 70%, which has influenced the rise in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar [9] Group 3: Tax Policy Impact - New tax regulations regarding gold trading will take effect from November 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027, focusing on VAT exemptions for exchange-traded transactions and physical delivery management [6] - The tax policy is expected to accelerate the centralization of gold trading in China and may shift interest towards gold investment products, although its impact on global gold prices is anticipated to be minimal [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent decline in gold prices is primarily driven by rising real interest rates and cooling rate cut expectations, with short-term weakness expected if the dollar index remains above 100.5 [10] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing central bank purchases and the broader trend of dollar credit expansion [10]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have been influenced by the prolonged U.S. government shutdown, which has led to increased market liquidity concerns and a stronger U.S. dollar, resulting in a significant drop in gold prices [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - On November 4, international gold futures prices fell sharply, with COMEX gold futures dropping from $4013/oz to a low of $3931.30/oz, while COMEX silver futures closed at $46.90/oz [2]. - The U.S. government shutdown has reached a historic 36 days, causing market unease and impacting liquidity, which counteracts the effects of interest rate cuts in October [3][4]. - The market's adjustment of interest rate cut expectations has led to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, diminishing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [3][4]. Group 2: Dollar Strength - The dollar index has surged past the 100 mark, supported by reduced interest rate cut expectations and the weakness of the euro and yen, as both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have maintained their current policies [5]. - If the government shutdown is resolved, liquidity may improve as funds flow back into the market, potentially leading to a decrease in the dollar index [5]. Group 3: Tax Policy Impact - A new tax policy regarding gold trading, effective from November 1, 2025, aims to encourage on-exchange trading by exempting value-added tax for certain transactions, which may shift interest towards investment products like gold ETFs [6][7]. - The policy may negatively impact non-investment gold consumption due to increased costs, while the overall long-term price trajectory of gold is expected to remain stable despite short-term speculative behavior [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent rise in actual interest rates and the cooling of rate cut expectations are primary factors behind the recent decline in gold prices, with short-term weakness anticipated if the dollar index remains above 100.5 [9][10]. - Long-term drivers for gold prices, such as central bank purchases and the ongoing trend of dollar credit expansion, are expected to provide upward momentum for gold [10].

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes a cautious investment approach, suggesting to "build high walls" (focus on dividends), "store grain" (control positions), and "wait for the king" (exercise caution while waiting for external risks to be fully released) [4][6][9] - The A-share market showed resilience despite initial declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index needing to maintain a low point of 3922 to avoid further downturns [4][18] - The technology sector has seen significant gains, with many leading tech stocks reaching new highs, but investors without positions are advised against chasing high volatility at elevated levels [4][18] Group 2: Market Analysis - The U.S. stock market experienced declines due to the Federal Reserve's officials striking down December rate cut expectations and profit-taking in tech stocks, indicating a high-risk environment for investors [5][25] - The report notes that the dollar index has broken through the previously indicated strong point of 99, with expectations for continued strength in the dollar against other currencies, particularly the RMB [30][31] - Commodity markets are advised to adopt a wait-and-see approach, with a noted decline in the Wenhua Commodity Index by 0.2% due to the strong dollar and ongoing market conditions [33][34] Group 3: Sector Performance - The report highlights that sectors such as coal, banking, and photovoltaic are still at low levels, suggesting that buying in less popular areas can yield excess returns [4][18] - The technology sector's absorption rate remains high, indicating limited room for further declines, while "old" sectors with lower volatility are expected to provide better returns in the fourth quarter [4][18] - The report identifies the Hainan Free Trade Zone as a strong performer, continuing to show resilience in the market [19][22]

美国政府延续停摆状态，重要的经济数据缺失，将导致美联储在后续货币政策的决策上更加谨慎，市场对美联储在12月降息预 期有所降温。 黄金方面： 据白宫官网，美国联邦政府停摆已经进入第36天，打破了2018年年底至2019年年初停摆35天的历史纪录，成为美国持续时间最 长的政府停摆。美国政府停摆将不利于改善美国的就业市场，虽然美国停摆期间非农就业人口数据没有公布，但是市场预期美 国就业市场难言乐观。 技术面：日线上，近期连续3个交易日行情冲高回落且收下影线较长影线，显示短期行情偏弱势。指标上看，行情仍然处于20日 均线上方运行，暗示下方有一定的支撑，短期不宜过分看空。日内关注上方62美元一线压力，下方关注59.50美元一线支撑。 美元指数： 美国政府停摆时间已经创造了历史，众多的重要数据缺失，极有可能导致美联储在货币政策方面更加谨慎。这也导致美联储官 员对于后续的货币政策分歧更加明显。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，美联储12月份降息预期降温以及避险情绪的降温将在短期令金价承压。 技术面：日线上，上一个交易日行情自高位回落且收阴线，显示短期行情偏弱势。4小时线上，行情跌破20日均线，短期空头占 优势。日内关 ...