官 2025 年 10 月 14 日 有色金属行业 2025 年三季度业绩前瞻 相关研究 证券分析师 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× quozy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 2025 三季度业绩前瞻: 我们对重点公司 2025 三季度业绩进行预测，2025 年前三季度业绩同比增速在 50%以上的有紫金 O 矿业、洛阳铝业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金、中金黄金、山金国际、株冶集团、湖南黄金、金诚信、 金力永磁，同比增速在 20-50%区间的有华友钻业、宝钢股份、南钢股份、华菱钢铁、久立特材, 同比增速在 0-20%区间的有盛达资源、西部矿业、华峰铝业、云铝股份、天山铝业、中信特钢, 业绩增长主要受益于相关金属价格同比上涨、产销量同比增长；2025Q3 业绩环比增速在 50%以 上的有盛达资源、铜陵有色、金力永磁，在 20-50%区间的有山东黄金、赤峰黄金、湖南黄金，在 0-20%区间的有紫金矿业、山金国际、株冶集团、金诚信、西部矿业、华峰铝业、云铝股份、天 山铝业、新疆众和、华友钻业、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - US stocks - Overweight [29] - European stocks - Equal - weight [30] - Chinese A - shares - Equal - weight [31] - Hong Kong stocks - Equal - weight [32] - Japanese stocks - Overweight [35] - Indian stocks - Underweight [34] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, global financial markets were influenced by central bank policies, economic data, and geopolitical factors. The Fed's rate cut, economic data in the US and China, and various market - specific events all had an impact on different asset classes [23][9][19] - Stock markets generally rose in September, with the Hang Seng Tech Index leading the way. Bond markets had mixed performances, and currency and commodity markets also showed distinct trends [28][48][58] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance in September 3.1.1 Stock Markets - Most major global stock indices rose in September. The Hang Seng Tech Index led with a 13.95% monthly increase, and A - share market style was highly differentiated [27][28] 3.1.2 Bond Markets - Most major bond indices had positive returns in September. For example, the Bloomberg US Treasury Index gained 0.85% in September [48] 3.1.3 Commodity Markets - Gold prices rose nearly 12% in September, oil prices fluctuated narrowly, and copper prices increased by 5.08% [62] 3.1.4 Currency Markets - The US dollar index showed a low - level oscillating pattern, the yen was slightly weak, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate was stable [58] 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 US Macroeconomic Review - ADP private employment decreased by 32,000 in September, against an expected increase of 51,000. The market increased bets on Fed rate cuts [9] - In August, CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year, driven by car and housing prices [10] - Retail sales rose 0.6% month - on - month in August, and real retail sales increased 2.1% year - on - year [14] - The September S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 52, still in the expansion range but showing signs of softening demand [16] 3.2.2 Chinese Macroeconomic Review - In August, social consumption was stable, exports and imports increased, fixed - asset investment growth slowed, and financial data was supported by various factors [19] - CPI turned negative again, PPI improved slightly but remained low, and PMI showed mixed signals [21] 3.2.3 Global Central Bank Policies in September - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points on September 17, and the market expected two more cuts this year [23] - The Bank of Canada cut the benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points on September 17 [23] - The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark rate at 0.5% on September 19 and announced an ETF and J - REIT减持 plan [23] 3.3 Market Outlook 3.3.1 Stock Markets - US stocks: The Fed's rate cut, economic resilience, and AI concept support the overweight rating, despite concerns about AI over - valuation [29] - European stocks: Mixed economic data, political instability, and the Fed's rate cut lead to an equal - weight rating [30] - Chinese A - shares: A funds - driven bull market, high - valuation in tech sectors, and potential policy risks result in an equal - weight rating [31] - Hong Kong stocks: AI and tech sectors are the mainstay, but narrow market breadth and weak fundamentals pose risks, with southbound funds being important [32] - Japanese stocks: The impact of the ETF减持 plan is limited, economic fundamentals are improving, and the market has digested the expected rate hike [35] - Indian stocks: Deteriorating US - India relations, high valuation, and foreign capital outflows lead to an underweight rating [34] 3.3.2 Bond Markets - US bonds: Short - term yields may decline further in October due to weak employment data [54] - Japanese bonds: The 10 - year yield may rise if the Bank of Japan hikes rates in October [54] - Chinese bonds: A rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut are expected in Q4, and bond yields may peak and fall [54] 3.3.3 Commodity Markets - Gold: After a sharp rise in September, it may enter a consolidation period, but long - term allocation logic remains [62] - Oil: Supply is expected to exceed demand in Q4, and the price may decline [62] - Copper: Supply disruptions and increased long - term demand may drive prices higher [62] 3.3.4 Currency Markets - US dollar: Expected to maintain a low - level oscillating pattern [58] - Yen: May strengthen if the Bank of Japan hikes rates in October [58] - RMB: Stable against the US dollar and weak against other currencies to support exports [58] 3.4 Selected Funds This Month - The report selects funds based on asset classes and geographical locations, using criteria such as historical performance, expense ratio, and risk for different types of funds [64][65]

Group 1: US Macroeconomic Data - The US government has been shut down since October 1, 2025, due to the failure to pass a temporary funding bill, leading to heightened US-China trade tensions [1] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for October recorded at 55, slightly above the expected 54 but below the previous value of 55.1 [1] - The one-year inflation expectation for October is at 4.6, slightly lower than the expected 4.7 and the previous 4.7, while the five-year inflation expectation remains stable at 3.7 [1] Group 2: Major Index Performance - For the week of October 6-10, the S&P Oil & Gas Index fell by 6.94%, the Nasdaq 100 Index decreased by 2.27%, and the S&P 500 Index dropped by 2.43%, with only two of the eleven sectors showing gains [1] Group 3: Market Outlook and Investment Direction - The threat of tariffs from Trump has triggered risk-averse trading, leading to declines in US stocks and a rise in gold prices [3] - The impact of the tariffs on US-China trade and economy is considered less significant compared to April, with market reactions being more desensitized [3] - There are ongoing discussions within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate paths, indicating a divergence of opinions [3]

Group 1: Report's Core View - Today, Treasury bond futures closed slightly higher. The resurgence of the tariff war has increased market risk aversion, which is favorable for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, China's economic data shows strong resilience, reducing the need for an across - the - board interest rate cut. The market's implied expectation of an interest rate cut between market interest rates and policy rates is weak, limiting the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. From a macro - fundamental perspective, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand persists, and there is a need for a relatively loose monetary environment in the future. The expectation of policy easing still exists, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate at the bottom in the short term [4] Group 2: Industry News - On October 14, the People's Bank of China conducted 91 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a bid volume, winning bid volume of 91 billion yuan, and an operating interest rate of 1.40%. There were no 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities on this day, resulting in a net investment of 91 billion yuan. Additionally, 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases matured [6]

Group 1 - The latest data indicates an unexpected rise in the UK's unemployment rate to 4.8%, the highest level since May 2021, while private sector wage growth slowed to 4.4%, below market expectations and the lowest since the end of 2021 [1][4] - The data suggests a loosening labor market, providing support for more dovish members of the Monetary Policy Committee who wish to maintain interest rate cut expectations [4] - The number of job vacancies decreased by only 9,000 in the three months to September, indicating that the labor market is stabilizing despite the recent challenges [4][8] Group 2 - The UK's inflation rate is nearly double the 2% target, leading to intensified debates within the Bank of England regarding the risk of a feedback loop from high inflation pushing up wage demands [6] - Recent discussions among policymakers, including Megan Greene, highlight concerns about second-round effects of inflation, although the market has largely ruled out further rate cuts this year [6] - The recent slowdown in layoffs due to the April payroll tax increase and minimum wage rise aligns with a key survey indicating stabilization in multiple labor market indicators [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - The domestic supply pressure remains as the domestic smelting profit narrows but does not affect the smelting seasonality. The opening of the export window reverses the short - allocation logic marginally, strengthening the linkage between the Shanghai zinc price and overseas macro factors. Although there are short - term fluctuations due to tariff trade wars, there is no need to be overly pessimistic in the long - term. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $100.45 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,200 yuan per ton, down 100 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, down 110 yuan, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, down 100 yuan, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On October 13, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,450 yuan/ton, closed at 22,255 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 177,344 lots, and the open interest was 101,699 lots. The highest price was 22,450 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,100 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of October 13, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 163,100 tons, a change of 12,900 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 37,475 tons, a change of - 475 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - The domestic concentrate TC and imported TC continue to diverge, with the domestic concentrate TC declining. The opening of the export window reverses the short - allocation logic marginally. The LME inventory has fallen below 38,000 tons, and the overseas premium continues to strengthen. Although tariff trade wars cause short - term fluctuations, the long - term interest rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the impact of tariffs. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The medium - to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish. In the short term, precious metals are surging rapidly. It is recommended that existing long positions be held cautiously, and new long positions should be entered with caution. Short - term investors are advised to either observe the market or conduct quick - in - quick - out trades. Price pullbacks are considered opportunities to build long positions for the medium - to long - term. The resistance levels for London gold are 4200 and then 4300, with support around 4100. For silver, the resistance is 55, and the support is 50 [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Monday, the precious metals sector continued its strong performance. The lease rates of silver and palladium remained high after a sharp increase, and the lendable quantity of SLV ETF was extremely low, indicating shortages in the spot market and potential short - squeeze issues. The results of the US "232" investigation on silver and palladium are expected to be submitted on October 19, which involves the sensitive topic of whether the US will impose a 50% tariff on these metals. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4130 per ounce, up 3.24%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $50.775 per ounce, up 7.47%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 927.56 yuan per gram, up 1.99%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11531 yuan per kilogram, up 2.84% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations were generally stable. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October was 1.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut was 98.3%. In December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 4.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut was 95.5%. In January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 2.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut was 49.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut was 48.6%. - Long - term funds: SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 1.72 tons to 1018.88 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 310.5 tons to 15754.26 tons. In terms of inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 44.6 tons to 1124.4 tons per day; as of the week ending September 26, SGX silver inventory decreased by 43.6 tons to 1124.4 tons per week [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - Data: This week, focus on the US September retail sales and PPI data. Due to the US government shutdown, the release of the US September CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, has been postponed to October 24. - Events: There will be numerous speeches by Fed officials this week, which will provide more guidance for the October 31 FOMC meeting. Key speeches include those by Fed Governor Bowman on Tuesday at 20:45, Fed Chair Powell at 23:30, Fed Governor Waller on Wednesday at 03:25, 2025 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins at 03:30, Fed Governor Milan on Thursday at 00:30, ECB President Lagarde at 02:00, and Fed Governor Waller at 21:00. Additionally, the IMF will release the "Global Economic Outlook Report" on Tuesday at 21:00, the Fed will release the Beige Book on Thursday at 02:00, and 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on Saturday at 00:15 [4]. 3.4 Precious Metals Spot and Futures Price Table - SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 927.56 yuan per gram, up 2.88%; SGX gold TD was at 926.48 yuan per gram, up 3.2%; CME gold main contract was at $4130 per ounce, up 2.34%. - SHFE silver main - continuous contract was at 11531 yuan per kilogram, up 4.05%; SGX silver TD was at 11453 yuan per kilogram, up 3.56%; CME silver main contract was at $50.775 per ounce, up 6.86%. - SHFE - TD gold was at 1.08 yuan per gram, down 71.73%; SHFE - TD silver was at 78 yuan per kilogram, down 428.57%. The CME gold - silver ratio was 81.3392, down 4.23% [6]. 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - SHFE gold inventory was 70728 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory was 1235.5878 tons, down 0.54%; SHFE gold positions were 239996 lots, up 0.62%; SPDR gold positions were 1018.88 tons, up 0.17%. - SHFE silver inventory was 1124.456 tons, down 3.82%; CME silver inventory was 16179.8026 tons, down 0.43%; SGX silver inventory was 1172.37 tons, down 3.66%; SHFE silver positions were 495579 lots, up 7.71%; SLV silver positions were 15754.260981 tons, up 2.01% [15][17]. 3.6 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The US dollar index was 99.2444, up 0.41%; the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1366, up 0.18%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 46067.58 points, up 1.29%; WTI crude oil spot was $59.49 per barrel, up 1%; LmeS copper 03 was $10802 per ton, up 4.13%. - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.05%, down 2.17%; the 10 - year US real interest rate was 1.75%, down 2.78%; the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread was 0.53%, down 1.85% [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices recovered losses and reached new highs due to tariff concerns and a recovery in risk - appetite. The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations. - Silver prices saw a significant increase and reached a record high. The upward trend of silver prices remains unchanged, with the influence of tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations. [4][6] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - For gold, the tech - stocks supported the rebound of US stocks, tariff concerns eased, but gold prices still rose. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index rose, and COMEX gold futures rose 3.24% to $4130 per ounce. - For silver, the tech - stocks supported the rebound of US stocks, and silver prices increased significantly. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index rose, and COMEX silver futures rose 7.47% to $50.775 per ounce. [4][6] 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.25, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures is 70728 kilograms and remains unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position is decreasing. - **Silver**: The basis is - 62, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures decreased by 17785 kilograms to 1169061 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position is increasing. [5][6] 3. Today's Focus - Today, pay attention to the intensive speeches of the Fed Chairman and ECB members, the Eurozone's October ZEW economic sentiment index, and the UK unemployment rate. Also, there are various economic data releases and official speeches throughout the day, such as the release of the Singapore Monetary Authority's monetary policy statement, the minutes of the RBA's September monetary policy meeting, etc. [4][15] 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations. The Shanghai gold premium is maintained at - 9.6 yuan/gram. - **Silver**: The upward trend of silver prices remains unchanged. The Shanghai silver premium has significantly expanded to - 290 yuan/gram, and the sentiment of domestic silver prices has clearly recovered. [4][6] 5. Position Data - **Gold**: On October 13, 2025, the long - order volume was 220,070, an increase of 1.45% compared to the previous day; the short - order volume was 78,569, an increase of 0.74%; the net position was 141,501, an increase of 1.84%. - **Silver**: On October 13, 2025, the long - order volume was 368,167, an increase of 7.22% compared to October 10; the short - order volume was 268,339, an increase of 7.57%; the net position was 99,828, an increase of 6.27%. [31][34]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals sector, with the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals (399395) rising by 2.50% as of October 14, 2025, driven by significant gains in individual stocks such as Silver Holdings (601212) up 10.02% and China Rare Earth (000831) up 8.00% [1] - The increase in spot gold prices, reaching a record high of $4,148.93 per ounce, is attributed to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and tariff impacts, which have heightened risk aversion among investors [1] - Dongwu Securities indicates that the downward trend in real interest rates, combined with overseas fiscal and tariff pressures, is boosting safe-haven demand for precious metals, with expectations of further interest rate cuts in October [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals (399395) include Zijin Mining (601899) and Northern Rare Earth (600111), collectively accounting for 53.12% of the index [2] - The Non-Ferrous ETF Fund (159880) closely tracks the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metals sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1][2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2512 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias". The core logic is that the long - term and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Overall, in the short term, the upward momentum and downward space of Treasury bond futures are both limited, and they will mainly conduct bottom oscillation consolidation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the long - term and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, Treasury bond futures opened higher and closed slightly up. On the news front, Trump's sudden tariff threat last Friday led to a rapid decline in the risk preference of the capital market and an increase in risk - aversion sentiment, which is beneficial to Treasury bond futures. From a macro - fundamental perspective, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and there is a need for a relatively loose monetary environment in the future. Policy easing expectations still exist, which strongly supports Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, domestic economic data shows strong resilience, and the necessity of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is insufficient. The implied interest rate cut expectation between the current market interest rate and the policy rate is weak, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is also insufficient [5].