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美联储按兵不动!鲍威尔重申不急降息,称经济仍好、不确定性极高
2025-07-16 06:13
Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economy, Federal Reserve policies, and the impact of U.S.-China trade negotiations. Core Points and Arguments 1. The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% aligns with market expectations, but there is growing concern about future economic growth, inflation, and rising unemployment rates [1][5] 2. The job market shows resilience, with a significant increase in non-farm payrolls and stable unemployment rates, indicating no signs of economic slowdown despite previous soft data suggesting otherwise [2][3] 3. The Federal Reserve's stance remains cautious, with no clear guidance on future interest rate paths due to the uncertain impact of tariff policies on the economy [3][4] 4. The market is focused on U.S.-China trade negotiations, with both countries signaling the start of talks, although President Trump has stated he will not lower tariffs on China [4] 5. The Federal Reserve has paused interest rate cuts for the third consecutive meeting, despite calls from President Trump for rate reductions, indicating a careful approach to monetary policy [5] 6. China's foreign exchange reserves increased to $3.2817 trillion, with a rise of $41 billion (1.27%) from the previous month, and the central bank has been increasing gold reserves for six consecutive months [6] 7. Domestic policies in China aim to support the real estate market and enhance financing for small and private enterprises, indicating a proactive approach to stabilize the economy [7] 8. Commodity markets are experiencing declines, with most agricultural products and energy-related commodities seeing price drops, reflecting broader market trends [8][9] 9. Recent data from the U.S. indicates a slight contraction in GDP, influenced by tariff policies affecting consumer confidence and spending [11] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. The Federal Reserve's cautious approach is influenced by the need to observe the effects of tariff policies before making further decisions on interest rates [3] 2. The upcoming economic data releases, including the Bank of England's interest rate decision and U.S. unemployment claims, are expected to impact market sentiment [12][13] 3. The overall economic outlook remains strong based on hard data, despite concerns raised by soft survey data, suggesting a complex economic environment [2][3]
农业品种多震荡运行
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 05:37
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products, including "oscillating" for most products, "oscillating and declining" for corn and starch, and "oscillating weakly" for logs [5][6][7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Most agricultural products are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with different influencing factors for each product. The market is affected by various factors such as weather, supply and demand, trade relations, and macro - economic conditions [5][6][7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: The growth of US soybeans is good, and market sentiment has weakened. - **Logic**: As of July 13, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than expected. The US foreign trade tension has increased, and the US dollar rose on Monday. The expected increase in US biodiesel demand for US soybean oil and the increase in the biodiesel blending ratio in Brazil are positive factors. However, the large arrival volume of imported soybeans in China and the expected increase in palm oil production in Malaysia are negative factors. - **Outlook**: The oil market is expected to continue to oscillate and differentiate in the near future [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meals - **View**: The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is higher than expected, and US soybeans are weaker than Dalian soybean meal. - **Logic**: International trade tensions are high. US soybeans are growing smoothly, but the export prospects are worrying. Brazilian soybean exports are still high. In China, the supply pressure dominates the weakness of the spot market, but concerns about Sino - US trade support the futures price. - **Outlook**: The domestic double - meal futures are stronger than US soybeans, and the domestic futures market is stronger than the spot market. The basis is expected to weaken. In the short - term, it will oscillate within a range, and in the long - term, it will be bullish [6]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Pay attention to the risk of a periodic rebound. - **Logic**: The supply of ports and deep - processing enterprises has decreased slightly. The futures price rebounded slightly during the day and then fell back. The cumulative auction volume of imported corn is 137 million tons, and the transaction volume is about 82 million tons. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate and decline in the short - term [7]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **View**: Supply and demand are stable, and pig prices oscillate. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large pigs are still being sold off, but the average weight has bottomed out and rebounded. The planned slaughter volume of group farms in July has decreased. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets from January to May 2025 has increased, and the slaughter volume is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the production capacity is still high. - **Outlook**: The reform expectation on the supply side boosts the sentiment of pig futures. The price is expected to oscillate, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - and long - term [9]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: It runs oscillating and strongly. - **Logic**: It is affected by capital sentiment at night and then adjusts with the market during the day. The trading logic follows the macro - sentiment. The supply in Asian producing areas is limited due to the rainy season, and the demand from tire enterprises has recovered. - **Outlook**: It may follow the overall commodity fluctuations before the fundamental situation provides guidance [11][13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price oscillates within a range. - **Logic**: It follows the movement of natural rubber and the overall commodity market, but the amplitude is limited. There is no obvious upward driving force, but there is support from the macro - environment and the improvement of butadiene trading. - **Outlook**: It is expected to continue to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to device changes [14]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices fluctuate within a narrow range. - **Logic**: According to the USDA's static balance sheet for the 25/26 season, the global, Chinese, and US cotton markets are all loose. The expected increase in Xinjiang's cotton production and the weak demand in the off - season are negative factors. However, the low inventory before the new cotton is listed provides support. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton. There is a risk of price decline when a large amount of new cotton is listed [15]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: Pay attention to import changes. - **Logic**: In the medium - and long - term, sugar prices are weak and under downward pressure due to the expected oversupply in the 25/26 season. In the short - term, the decline in Brazil's sugar production and the high sales - to - production ratio in China support the price, but the increase in Brazil's production and exports and China's imports will increase the supply pressure. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly; in the short - term, they are expected to oscillate [17]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The macro - environment dominates the trend, and pulp prices are rising within a range. - **Logic**: The futures price rises with the macro - atmosphere. The supply and demand are in a stalemate, and the upward driving force comes from the macro - environment. The low US dollar price, high overseas pulp mill inventory, and weak downstream demand limit the upward space. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures are expected to oscillate due to the warm macro - atmosphere, weak supply - demand guidance, and low absolute valuation [18]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: The outbound volume has declined, and the inventory has increased. - **Logic**: The new - week outbound volume of logs has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The spot price is weak due to the impact of deliverable goods. The cost of both buyers and sellers has increased during the 07 delivery. The overall demand for logs this year is stable, and the inventory - reduction rhythm is slow. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate weakly around the delivery cost in the short - term [19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report mentions variety data monitoring for oils and fats, corn and starch, pigs, cotton and yarn, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data content is provided in the given text.
海外宏观周报:当前已是最佳路径-20250716
China Post Securities· 2025-07-16 05:25
证券研究报告:宏观报告 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《破内卷困局,离不开扩内需支撑》 - 2025.07.08 宏观观点 海外宏观周报:当前已是最佳路径 ⚫ 核心观点: 本周美股继续上涨,在降息预期前置以及投资者更加关注 2026 年业绩的背景下,三、四季度经济走弱的信号已经被投资者定价。但 关键在于定价的程度,当前市场对2026年SP500EPS的一致预期在300 美元,同比 14%。如此高的增长传递了投资者对经济基本面的乐观判 断,换句话讲,就算是经济走弱,美联储只要开始降息,那么反弹指 日可待。 从私人部门的资产负债表来看,这一判断也比较合理,唯二的不 确定性在于关税政策和通胀。政策增加不确定性,通胀则会推迟降息, 但目前来看,关税对物价的推动并不显著。结合当前并不算亢奋的市 场情绪以及未来很有可能发生的外资回流,我们在大方向上看多美 股,但也认为前述的风险情景并未完全排除。 经济数 ...
美国6月CPI数据创2月以来新高
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 05:14
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2) Core Views of the Report - The market is concerned about the impact of Trump's tariff policy on inflation. Although the current US inflation level remains low due to relatively low energy prices and weak domestic consumer confidence, the inflation data released yesterday has started to rebound. If the tariff factor continues to affect the market in the future, the situation will become more variable. In addition, although Fed officials have differences on the future interest rate path, a rate cut is still a high-probability event. Therefore, it is recommended to mainly buy gold on dips for hedging [8]. - The current silver price is strong, the gold-silver ratio has been repaired, and the silver price itself has reached a new high again. This is also due to the spillover effect of Trump's claim to impose tariffs on copper on the Comex silver price. For now, it is also recommended to mainly buy silver on dips for hedging [9]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Economic Data - US June overall CPI annual rate rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, in line with market expectations; monthly rate was 0.3%, the highest since January, in line with market expectations. Core CPI annual rate rose to 2.9%, the highest since February, slightly lower than the expected 3%, but slightly up from last month's 2.8%. Interest rate futures still show that the possibility of a Fed rate cut this month is extremely small, but the possibility of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September is high [1]. - The US reached a trade agreement with Indonesia, imposing a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods exported to the US, while US exports to Indonesia will enjoy duty-free and non-tariff barrier treatment. If goods are transshipped from Indonesia, the tariffs will be superimposed with the tariffs of the country of origin [1]. Futures Market - On July 15, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 777.00 yuan/gram and closed at 780.40 yuan/gram, a change of -0.13% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 778.00 yuan/gram and closed at 774.92 yuan/gram, down 0.42% from the afternoon close [2]. - On July 15, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9,178.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,225.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.20% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 735,125 lots, and the open interest was 450,115 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,195 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,160 yuan/kilogram, down 0.26% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yields and Spreads - On July 15, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.43%, a change of 0.08% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 5%, up 2 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Volume Changes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by -3,203 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by -2,141 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 288,377 lots, a change of -12.87% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by -7,084 lots, and the short positions changed by -3,649 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 990,765 lots, a change of -36.83% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings were 947.64 tons yesterday, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 14,856.02 tons, down 110.22 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage - On July 15, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 8.65 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -706.80 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 84.60, a change of -0.32% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 86.24, a change of -1.54% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Data - On July 15, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 30,068 kilograms, a change of -21.20% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 489,788 kilograms, a change of -51.85% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 14,166 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 24,420 kilograms [7].
黄金ETF持仓量报告解读(2025-7-16)技术指标中线徘徊黄金将盘整
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-16 04:36
Group 1 - The current total holdings of the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, stand at 947.64 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - On July 15, spot gold prices experienced a decline after reaching a high of $3366.41 per ounce, closing at $3324.6 per ounce, down $18.74 or 0.56% [6] - Recent U.S. inflation data showed that both the June CPI and core CPI exceeded previous values, but core CPI has been below expectations for five consecutive months, indicating that tariff impacts on inflation are not fully realized [6][7] Group 2 - Market expectations suggest a 62% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with potential for nearly two cuts by the end of the year [6] - Analysts indicate that the lower-than-expected core CPI has raised questions about the extent of consumer price impacts from tariffs, potentially prompting President Trump to advocate more strongly for rate cuts [7] - Technical analysis shows that gold prices may consolidate, with resistance at $3350 and potential targets of $3400 and $3450 if broken, while a drop below $3300 could lead to testing the 100-day moving average at $3245 [6]
欧洲商界人士:美关税政策对大西洋贸易带来更多不确定性
news flash· 2025-07-16 04:24
Core Viewpoint - The announcement by President Trump to impose a 30% tariff on goods imported from the EU starting August 1 poses a significant risk of escalating trade conflicts between the US and Europe, potentially disrupting transatlantic supply chains and harming businesses and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic [1] Group 1 - The US will impose a 30% tariff on EU imports starting August 1 [1] - European business leaders express concerns over the potential escalation of trade tensions [1] - The tariff policy is viewed as unreasonable and likely to disrupt transatlantic supply chains [1]
关税动荡与降息阶段并行,金价下半年预计宽幅震荡后可能上涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-16 03:43
Core Viewpoint - The global central banks are accumulating gold at the fastest pace in three years, while gold prices are experiencing significant volatility due to trade policies and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - The increase in steel tariffs from 25% to 30% by the Trump administration has created a delayed impact on the market, with costs expected to rise significantly in the coming months [3]. - A 1% increase in tariffs could lead to an additional cost of $24 billion for American consumers [3]. - The automotive industry is particularly vulnerable, with potential cost increases of 20% once existing inventory is depleted [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding interest rate cuts, with at least six members advocating for immediate cuts while others caution against premature action [4][5]. - The market is betting heavily on a total of 100 basis points in rate cuts this year, leading to significant inflows into gold ETFs [4][5]. - Recent CPI data showing a drop to 3.1% has further fueled expectations for rate cuts, impacting gold prices [5]. Group 3: Central Banks' Gold Purchases - Emerging market central banks have been net buyers of gold for nine consecutive months, with significant purchases from Turkey and India [7][9]. - Poland's central bank has notably completed 60% of its goal to purchase 100 tons of gold within the first half of the year [9]. - Despite a 3% drop in gold prices in June, central bank purchases surged by 40% year-over-year, indicating strong demand [9]. Group 4: Market Volatility and Trading Behavior - Gold prices have shown extreme volatility, with significant daily fluctuations driven by geopolitical events and Federal Reserve signals [10]. - The gold-silver ratio has increased to 88:1, indicating a shift in investment strategies towards silver mining stocks [11]. - The market remains uncertain, with ongoing pressures from tariffs and interest rate expectations creating both risks and opportunities for investors [13].
BCR视野:通胀不及预期,关税效应被高估了吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-16 03:43
这不是狼来了的故事——只不过,这一次"狼"可能真在门口了。 在经历了几个月的"按兵不动"后,美国消费者价格指数(CPI)终于要动真格的了。而这波涨价背后,有个熟悉的 老面孔——特朗普的关税政策。 你以为关税加了、价格就立刻飙上去?真没那么简单。过去这段时间,市场像是在按下暂停键,表面平静,其实 底下早就暗流涌动。现在,这股压力正在一点点冒头。 CPI即将放大招?经济学家的预言正在成真 根据最新预测,6月美国整体CPI和核心CPI都将环比上涨0.3%。听起来不多?可别小看这个数字——这意味着年 化核心通胀率将逼近3%,已经远远超出了美联储2%的"舒适区"。 一旦数据坐实,原本押注7月降息的那批人,可能要改口了。 鲍威尔上个月其实已经放风了:"关税的影响会在6月或7月的数据显示出来。" 看来,这不是一句场面话。 关税的"隐身术":它们去了哪? 很多人不解:加税明明早就落地,为啥通胀现在才动静大? 原油跌、房租稳,这些大项反而压住了物价。 但别以为这就没事了。工具、新车、家具这类商品价格,已经悄悄涨了0.3%。 这些原本是价格"惯性下跌"的品 类,现在回头涨价,已经不是巧合。 接下来是"阵痛",还是长期通胀的前奏? ...
黄金价格低位反弹,关注上方压力位空单布局
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-16 03:26
Core Viewpoint - The current fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions and U.S. trade policies, particularly tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which are expected to provide support for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,330 per ounce, showing slight increases due to safe-haven demand amid tariff announcements from Trump [1]. - Despite a recent rise in the U.S. dollar index, which reached a high of 98.70, the market interprets this as a technical adjustment rather than a long-term trend shift, suggesting potential for gold price recovery [1][3]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is likely to support gold prices, as market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic despite short-term price fluctuations [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - Market expectations indicate a potential interest rate cut of about 44 basis points by the end of the year, with a decrease in the probability of a September rate cut from 80% to 53% [4]. - Fed Chairman Powell's cautious stance on inflation suggests that the Fed may remain vigilant regarding interest rate adjustments, which could impact gold prices [4]. - The upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data is critical, as it may confirm inflation pressures and influence market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - The gold market presents both challenges and opportunities, with short-term price movements expected to remain within the $3,300 to $3,400 range [5]. - Long-term factors such as geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, and a trend towards looser monetary policy could provide upward momentum for gold prices [5][6]. - Investors are advised to closely monitor PPI data and developments in U.S. tariff policies, as well as trends in the dollar and bond yields, to identify investment opportunities in the gold market [6].
中美关税谈判“态势良好”,H20芯片放行在即|外贸最新资讯
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-16 03:14
全球市场波动中,外贸人既要迎战挑战,也要把握新机遇。本文将为外贸从业者带来最新的国际国内要闻、市场动态及风险预警,涵盖经济、政治、金融等 多个领域。 最新!美国对多国加征"对等关税"详细总表!最高50%,你出口的国家中招了吗?中国制造网 Global Pay Pro 上一交易日17:00美元兑人民币: 7.1707(市场参考价:7.1559) 02 国内见闻 宏观政策与经济运行 贸易与外贸动向 行业与地方发展 0 1 国际要闻 国际贸易与关税动向 黄仁勋宣布美国批准 H20 芯片销往中国。 阿根廷政府允许以已预付国家税抵扣进口关税。 美国对三氯乙烯(TCE)全面禁令或将于 8 月 19 日正式生效。 美国对俄罗斯威胁征收 100% 关税。 欧盟准备对 720 亿欧元美国商品征收反制关税。 欧盟委员会委员谢夫乔维奇 7 月 14 日表示,若美欧贸易谈判失败,将对 720 亿欧元美国商品征收额外反制关税。 巴西 7 月 14 日成立 "谈判与经贸对策委员会",评估美国对巴西征收 50% 关税的影响,15 日将与工业和农业部门举行会议。 美国商务部 7 月 14 日宣布,对大部分墨西哥进口番茄征收 17.09% 反 ...