智通财经5月12日电，摩根士丹利表示，寄望于中美贸易谈判取得进展，对冲基金上周增加了对中国股 市的看涨押注，尤其是美国的对冲基金。摩根士丹利在上周五发布的报告中称，在看到中美可能达成贸 易协议的令人鼓舞的迹象后，美国对冲基金"重新投入"了中国，买入在美股交易和在A股市场交易的股 票。该银行表示，相比之下，对冲基金减持在泰国、中国香港、印度和澳大利亚为首的大多数亚洲地区 的头寸。 摩根士丹利：因贸易谈判乐观情绪 对冲基金重新进入中国股市 ...

点击蓝字，关注我们 当前形势下的协议评估:在当前形势下，若要达成一项消除美国贸易逆差的协议，要求取消除10% 双边关税以外的所有关税。但从博弈论矩阵来看，达成这样的协议并非最优选择。在"达成协 议"和"不达成协议"的对比中，双方的收益和损失情况表明，此时达成全面协议对双方来说都不是 最佳决策。 部分协议的探讨:有人提议将关税降至65% 达成部分协议，对此也进行了分析。即使中国出口下降 40%，美国出口下降 20%，中国会从部分协议中受益，但美国会拒绝这项部分协议。这是因为美 国必须至少获得目前从关税或更多贸易中获得的 1690 亿美元收益，而在这种情况下无法满足美国 的利益需求。 可能达成协议的条件:经过研究发现，如果在部分协议下，中国出口下降幅度小于 40%，美国出口 下降幅度小于 20%，部分协议就有可能达成。例如，在关税为 70% 时，估计中国出口将下降 25%，美国出口将下降 12.5%，此时部分协议对双方都比当前状况更有利。甚至在关税为60%，中 国出口下降25% 或更低幅度时，协议也有可能达成。 这说明，贸易降幅和关税水平是影响协议能 否达成的关键因素。 三、关税调整对贸易逆差的影响 关税与贸易逆 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Palm oil**: Pressure has been released in the short - term, and there may be support below [3][5]. - **Soybean oil**: Oscillating to find the bottom, remaining relatively strong among varieties [3][5]. - **Soybean meal**: Weak in the short - term, waiting for the May USDA supply - demand report [3][10]. - **Soybean**: Weakly oscillating [3][10]. - **Corn**: Oscillating with an upward bias [3][13]. - **Sugar**: Stabilizing in the short - term [3][18]. - **Cotton**: Maintaining an oscillating trend [3][22]. - **Eggs**: Oscillating and adjusting [3][28]. - **Hogs**: Near - term contradictions are not obvious [3][30]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchases of oil mills [3][35]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 7,886 yuan/ton (-0.28%), and night - session was 7,940 yuan/ton (0.68%); soybean oil's day - session and night - session closing prices were both 7,780 yuan/ton, with a day - session increase of 0.26% [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: USDA reported a 120,000 - ton soybean export to Pakistan in the 2025/26 period; Brazil's 2024/25 soybean commercial sales reached 57% of the expected output, up 6.3 percentage points from last month [6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0 [9]. 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: DCE soybean 2507's day - session closing price was 4,153 yuan/ton (-0.16, -0.38%), and night - session was 4,171 yuan/ton (-4, -0.10%); DCE soybean meal 2509's day - session and night - session closing prices were 2,899 yuan/ton and 2,900 yuan/ton respectively, both down 0.45% [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On May 9, CBOT soybeans rose due to upcoming China - US negotiations and an export sales report; however, ideal sowing conditions in the US soybean belt limited the upward trend, and China's April soybean imports dropped to a ten - year low [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal and soybean trend intensities are both - 1 [12]. 3.3 Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: C2507's day - session closing price was 2,375 yuan/ton (0.30%), and night - session was 2,375 yuan/ton (0.00%); C2509's day - session closing price was 2,385 yuan/ton (0.13%), and night - session was 2,383 yuan/ton (-0.08%) [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn port collection prices were 2,260 - 2,280 yuan/ton (new crop listing), and prices in various regions showed different trends [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 1 [16]. 3.4 Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: Raw sugar price was 17.82 cents/pound (0.3), mainstream spot price was 6,150 yuan/ton (20), and futures main - contract price was 5,839 yuan/ton (26) [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: High - frequency information showed that factors such as rising crude oil prices and Brazil's slightly accelerated crushing progress affected the sugar market; domestic and international sugar supply - demand situations were also reported [18][19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 1 [20]. 3.5 Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: CF2509's day - session closing price was 12,950 yuan/ton (0.39%), and night - session was 12,980 yuan/ton (0.23%); CY2507's day - session closing price was 19,220 yuan/ton (-0.21%), and night - session was 19,330 yuan/ton (0.57%) [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Domestic cotton spot trading was light, and the cotton textile enterprise situation was generally stable; ICE cotton was waiting for USDA reports [23][24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [25]. 3.6 Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Egg 2507's closing price was 3,034 yuan/500 kilograms (0.46%), and Egg 2509's was 3,767 yuan/500 kilograms (0.21%) [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [28]. 3.7 Hogs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Henan's spot price was 15,000 yuan/ton (-50), Sichuan's was 14,650 yuan/ton (-100), and Guangdong's was 15,290 yuan/ton (-150) [32]. - **Market Logic**: After the May Day holiday, second - fattening still had rotation intentions, but price differences were inverted; the focus was on inventory accumulation and far - month spread arbitrage strategies [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: Hog trend intensity is 0 [33]. 3.8 Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: Liaoning 308 general - quality peanuts' price was 8,100 yuan/ton (0), Henan Baisha general - quality peanuts' was 8,060 yuan/ton (0) [35]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In various regions, peanut prices were generally stable, with some regions showing slight price increases or decreases due to factors such as supply and demand [36]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [39].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates aligns with market expectations, but Chairman Powell's hawkish comments suggest a reluctance to cut rates soon, despite pressure from the President and Treasury Secretary [2][3] - Economic indicators show a divergence, with soft data indicating weakness in business and consumer confidence, while hard data such as employment and consumption remain resilient, leading to a reassessment of rate cut expectations [2][3] - The potential for a mild recession exists, with inflation possibly rising due to tariff impacts, which could challenge the Fed's policy balance and communication capabilities [3] Group 2 - The recent surge in the New Taiwan Dollar against the US Dollar has led to a rise in other Asian currencies, driven by significant trade surpluses and investment in US assets by Taiwanese insurance companies [4][5] - The reliance on US dollar assets poses risks, particularly if the dollar weakens or US Treasury yields decline, which could lead to significant valuation changes and increased currency risk for Asian insurers [4][5] - The long-term implications of these dynamics could affect capital markets, as Asian countries hold substantial US dollar assets while facing pressures from US trade policies [6]

当前形势下的协议评估:在当前形势下，若要达成一项消除美国贸易逆差的协议，要求取消除10%双边 关税以外的所有关税。但从博弈论矩阵来看，达成这样的协议并非最优选择。在"达成协议"和"不达成 协议"的对比中，双方的收益和损失情况表明，此时达成全面协议对双方来说都不是最佳决策。 部分协议的探讨:有人提议将关税降至65%达成部分协议，对此也进行了分析。即使中国出口下降40%， 美国出口下降20%，中国会从部分协议中受益，但美国会拒绝这项部分协议。这是因为美国必须至少获 得目前从关税或更多贸易中获得的1690亿美元收益，而在这种情况下无法满足美国的利益需求。 可能达成协议的条件:经过研究发现，如果在部分协议下，中国出口下降幅度小于40%，美国出口下降 幅度小于20%，部分协议就有可能达成。例如，在关税为70%时，估计中国出口将下降25%，美国出口 将下降12.5%，此时部分协议对双方都比当前状况更有利。甚至在关税为60%，中国出口下降25%或更 低幅度时，协议也有可能达成。这说明，贸易降幅和关税水平是影响协议能否达成的关键因素。 三、关税调整对贸易逆差的影响 花旗银行亚洲交易策略主管穆罕默德阿帕巴伊(Mohammed ...

期货热点追踪 中美贸易谈判缓解市场焦虑情绪，机构称美联储降息为时尚早，黄金价格仍有下跌空间？ 相关链接 ...

与此同时，华尔街机构对今年降息幅度的预测从0到125个基点不等，凸显政策路径的不确定性。多家顶 级投行经济学家预计，今年要么降息两次，要么降息三次，从7月或9月开始。 智通财经APP获悉，美联储主席鲍威尔的最新表态彻底浇灭了债券交易员的降息热情。随着央行明确表 示不急于启动宽松周期，投资者正重新评估利率政策前景。 上周鲍威尔重申央行将保持观望立场后，交易员迅速调整头寸，将2025年降息幅度预期下调至不足75个 基点，并将第一次降息时点推迟至7月。 这一预期能否维持将取决于未来数周美国经济与通胀走势。上周末的中美贸易谈判细节及周二即将公布 的CPI数据都可能引发市场再度转向。鲍威尔警告称，在政策制定者寻求厘清关税政策影响之际，特朗 普大规模加征关税正同时推高通胀与失业风险。 "债券市场正在接受这样一个事实，即通胀将高于最初的预期，这对于投资者认为美联储会介入并降息 的观点来说，是一个复杂因素，"PGIM固定收益联席首席投资官Greg Peters表示。他所在机构管理着超 过8500亿美元资产。 期权市场涌现大量对冲头寸，押注美联储今年可能按兵不动，甚至有仓位开始预期2025年全年不会降 息。相比之下，在最新非农 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses significant events in the global market, particularly focusing on the impact of tariffs and trade negotiations between the US and China, as well as the expansion strategies of various companies in international markets [2][26][35]. Group 1: Major Events - Temu is shifting its focus to markets outside the US, particularly in the Middle East and Latin America, to reduce reliance on a single market [4]. - SHEIN and Temu experienced sales declines of 23% and 17% respectively due to increased tariffs, prompting both companies to raise retail prices [5][6]. - TikTok plans to build a €1 billion data center in Finland to enhance data security for its European users [10]. Group 2: Corporate Developments - Alibaba and 24 other US-listed Chinese companies face delisting risks due to alleged ties with the Chinese military [14]. - Jeff Bezos plans to sell up to $4.8 billion worth of Amazon stock over the next year [28]. - DoorDash is acquiring UK-based Deliveroo for £2.9 billion (approximately $3.85 billion) to strengthen its position in the European market [40]. Group 3: Investment and Financing - SAIC's ride-hailing brand, Xiangdao, completed over ¥1.3 billion in Series C financing and is preparing for international expansion [38]. - Uber is investing an additional $100 million in WeRide to expand its autonomous driving services into 15 international cities [39]. - Coinbase is set to acquire Deribit for nearly $2.9 billion to enhance its global derivatives strategy [44].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index showed stability, closing up 0.40%, supported by sectors like banking and electricity [1] - The US and UK reached a trade agreement, reducing tariffs on UK car imports from 25% to a maximum of 10%, with a cap of 100,000 cars per year [1] - The agreement requires the UK to purchase an additional $5 billion in US agricultural products and a $10 billion Boeing procurement deal [1] US-China Trade Negotiations - Substantial trade negotiations between the US and China are set to take place, with expectations of a significant reduction in tariffs from 145% to 50% [2] - The negotiations are seen as exploratory, aimed at understanding each side's demands and limits [2] Economic Data - China's April exports in USD rose by 8.1% year-on-year, while imports fell by 0.2%, resulting in a trade surplus of $96.18 billion [4] - The data indicates a strong performance in trade despite the ongoing tariff conflicts, with April's figures being the second highest for the month historically [4] Sector Focus - The Chinese government is intensifying efforts to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals, which is crucial for national security and economic stability [7] - The crackdown on smuggling is expected to tighten supply and support prices, potentially enhancing company performance in the sector [7] Company Highlights - China Resources Beverage reported a revenue of 13.521 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.661 billion yuan for 2024, marking a 24.7% increase [9] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 0.483 yuan per share, reflecting a payout ratio of 70.8% [9] - The beverage segment is experiencing significant growth, with a 30.8% increase in revenue, contributing to 10.3% of total revenue [10] - The company is increasing its self-production capacity, aiming for over 60% by 2025, which will reduce reliance on outsourcing and lower manufacturing costs [10]

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed mixed results with Dow futures down 0.03%, S&P 500 futures up 0.08%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.11% [1] - European indices also experienced gains, with Germany's DAX up 0.48%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.36%, France's CAC 40 up 0.59%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.33% [2] - WTI crude oil rose by 1.87% to $61.03 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by 1.67% to $63.89 per barrel [2] Trade Relations and Tariffs - President Trump suggested that an 80% tariff on China seems reasonable ahead of upcoming trade negotiations, urging China to open its market further [3] - Reports indicate that the US is considering reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to between 50% and 54%, potentially effective next week [4] - The US and UK have reached a new trade agreement, partially lifting certain tariffs, but many details remain to be finalized [5] Economic Indicators - ING predicts that the Federal Reserve's cautious stance may last until September, with a potential rate cut of 50 basis points due to declining consumer and business confidence [4] - A stock market indicator has entered a historically poor return phase for the S&P 500, with previous occurrences leading to an average decline of 5.6% over the following 12 months [6][7] Company Performance - TSMC reported a 48% increase in April revenue, driven by a rush to procure chips before new tariffs take effect, with monthly sales reaching approximately $11.6 billion [8] - Lyft's Q1 revenue grew by 14% to $1.45 billion, with a net profit of $2.6 million, attributed to an increase in active users [9] - Coinbase's Q1 revenue rose by 24% to $2 billion, but net profit plummeted by 94% to $66 million due to market price adjustments of crypto assets [10] - Pinterest's Q1 revenue increased by 16% to $855 million, with Q2 guidance exceeding expectations, highlighting the role of AI in enhancing user experience [11] - Affirm reported a turnaround in Q3 with a net profit of $2.8 million and revenue of $783 million, reflecting strong consumer demand for installment payment services [11] Industry Developments - Nvidia plans to launch a downgraded version of its H20 AI chip for the Chinese market in response to US export restrictions [12] - IAG is reportedly set to place an order for approximately 30 Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft, marking a significant win for Boeing following the new US-UK trade agreement [12]