《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》并未涉及今年4月份之前的关税对抗内容，即：特朗普以芬太尼为借口，在2月与3月分两次对中国商品累积加收20%的关 税依然保留，而我国的反制措施同样也保留着。 即2月初，我国对来自美国的煤炭、液化天然气加征15%的关税，对来自美国的石油、农业机械、大排量汽车、皮卡等商品加征10%的关税，附件中列出的 其他数十种美国商品，分别加征相应的关税。 3月份，我国对美国产的鸡肉、小麦、玉米、棉花等商品加征15%关税，对美国产的高粱、大豆、猪肉、牛肉、水产品、水果、蔬菜、乳制品等加征10%关 税，附件中列出的其他美国商品，加征相应的关税。 这两次的反制措施都是组合拳，既有对等反制，也就是对美国商品加关税，也有不对等反制措施，包括且不限于将部分美国企业纳入制裁名单，吊销部分美 国企业对华出口资质，管制或禁止稀有金属出口…… 联合声明涉及的内容，都是4月之后的 也就是特朗普公开的"对等关税"名录，给中国商品加收34%的关税，在新的协议中将之拆分成两部分，10%的基础关税继续保留，剩余的24%关税给予90天 豁免期（谈判期）——以后是否要收，得继续谈判。 在白宫公布"对等关税"名录后，我国立刻予以反制 ...

Core Points - The recent US-China trade talks resulted in the cancellation of 91% of tariffs by both sides, with a temporary suspension of 24% tariffs for 90 days [1][10] - The economic implications of the trade relationship are significant for both countries and global economic stability [1] - The average tariff rate on Chinese goods exported to the US is now approximately 30% after the tariff reductions [1] Group 1: Trade Impact - The trade talks have led to a surge in the Chinese stock market and a positive response from economists, indicating a better-than-expected outcome [1][4] - Many Chinese traders are eager to capitalize on the 90-day tariff suspension, with increased production and shipping activities anticipated [4][5] - The logistics sector is experiencing heightened activity as companies rush to adjust pricing and shipping arrangements [5][9] Group 2: Business Sentiment - Business owners expressed relief and optimism following the trade talks, with some indicating a willingness to resume orders despite previous uncertainties [4][23] - The sentiment among traders reflects a cautious optimism, as they prepare for potential future changes in trade policy [10][23] - The trade environment has forced many businesses to reconsider their strategies, with some exploring alternative markets and production locations [12][19] Group 3: Long-term Considerations - The trade dynamics have prompted discussions about the sustainability of the current global trade order, with potential shifts towards decoupling or increased cooperation [2][10] - The ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade policies continues to pose challenges for businesses, necessitating contingency planning [10][21] - The resilience of Chinese manufacturing and its integrated supply chains remains a competitive advantage, despite the pressures from shifting trade policies [13][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - After the temporary agreement was reached in the China-US trade talks in Geneva and tariffs were significantly reduced, the market's risk appetite increased significantly, and the risk-aversion sentiment declined, leading to a full decline in treasury bonds and treasury bond futures. Investors expect that the easing of China-US relations will help stabilize the global economy and reduce the urgency for loose monetary policy. Coupled with the strong rebound of the US stocks and the pressure of funds flowing out of the bond market, the yield of spot bonds increased and the price of futures bonds decreased. Overall, the short-term pressure on the bond market mainly reflects the phased convergence of macro risk premiums [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) had a month-on-month increase of 0.10% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) had a month-on-month decrease of 0.40% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.70% [8] - Economic indicators (monthly update): The social financing scale was 422.96 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 5.67 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 1.36%; M2 year-on-year was 7.00%, with no change; the manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.50% and a decline rate of 2.97% [8] - Economic indicators (daily update): The US dollar index was 100.98, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.81 and a decline rate of 0.80%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1887, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.036 and a decline rate of 0.50%; SHIBOR 7-day was 1.49, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.40%; DR007 was 1.52, with a day-on-day increase of 0.02 and an increase rate of 1.26%; R007 was 1.76, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.21 and a decline rate of 10.82%; the interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) 3M was 1.61, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.62%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.11, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.62% [8] II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL on May 13, 2025, were 102.35 yuan, 105.96 yuan, 108.72 yuan, and 119.30 yuan respectively. The price changes of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.03%, -0.01%, 0.03%, and 0.13% respectively. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was -0.029 yuan, -0.039 yuan, -0.104 yuan, and -0.175 yuan respectively [1] III. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - On May 13, 2025, the central bank conducted 180 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.5%. The main term repurchase interest rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.406%, 1.490%, 1.556%, and 1.647% respectively, and the repurchase interest rates had recently declined [1] IV. Spread Overview - Not provided with specific data in the content, only mentions relevant spread trend charts such as the inter - term spread trend of treasury bond futures varieties and the spread between spot bond term spread and futures cross - variety spread [37] V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts include the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years [44][47][58] VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts include the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [54][60][57] VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts include the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [62][65] VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts include the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [70][72][75] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: With the decline of the repurchase interest rate and the fluctuation of the treasury bond futures price, the 2506 contract is neutral - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the widening of the basis - Hedging: There is an adjustment pressure in the medium term, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [3]

亚特兰大联储GDPNow模型预测，在一季度经济意外下滑后，二季度美国国内生产总值（GDP）增速 有望回升至2.3%。华尔街也进一步看好美国经济前景，摩根大通认为，因贸易谈判取得了进一步的实 质性进展，衰退的概率已经明显下降（市场定价为35%）。 就在上月，摩根大通将经济衰退的可能性提高到60%，理由是特朗普的激进关税立场。"关税的进一步 降级、贸易谈判的积极势头、强劲的（第一季度）收益和有弹性的宏观数据导致了跨资产的广泛机遇。 在美国和中国同意在贸易谈判同时降低关税90天后，这一势头正在增强。" 中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发出后，全球市场迎来狂欢。不过，在美元上涨和金价重挫的背后，避险 情绪降温意味着美联储又有了一个等待降息的理由。 中美双方在联合声明中达成多项积极共识。双方认识到双边经贸关系对两国和全球经济的重要性，认识 到可持续的、长期的、互利的双边经贸关系的重要性，本着相互开放、持续沟通、合作和相互尊重的精 神，继续推进相关工作。 作为经济的重要风向标，5月12日美国银行板块走强。美银、富国银行、花旗、高盛涨幅均超过3%。标 普银行ETF盘中突破了4月2日的收盘价，这意味着该行业现在已经收复了特朗普公布 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - The current supply of tin ore remains tight, but the supply is expected to recover in July. The demand improvement is limited, and the subsequent demand outlook is pessimistic. The Sino - US tariff negotiation consensus may drive the price to rebound, but considering supply recovery and weak demand, try shorting in the 265,000 - 270,000 range and focus on the supply recovery rhythm [1]. Copper - Macroeconomic factors such as tariffs and the "232" investigation affect copper prices. The supply of raw materials is tight, and domestic inventories are low. The demand in the peak season may not be sustainable. The copper market shows a "strong current + weak expectation" pattern, with prices expected to be volatile in the short - term, and focus on the demand after May and tariff negotiation progress [2]. Aluminum - For alumina, the operating capacity may fluctuate, demand is stable with limited growth, and the cost support is weakening. Prices are expected to be volatile. For electrolytic aluminum, the supply is stable, demand may decline, but the low inventory and tariff relaxation support the price. Overall, the price is expected to be weak, with a support range of 18,000 - 18,500 [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is loose. Refined zinc supply was affected by over - expected maintenance in April. Downstream demand is weak, and the purchasing index is weakening. Short - term prices may be supported by tariff relaxation. In the long - term, consider shorting, and focus on ore production and downstream demand changes [6]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures market fluctuates. The tariff negotiation result has a short - term impact on sentiment. The supply pressure is clear, demand is relatively flat, and inventory is high. Prices may stabilize in the short - term, but the upside is limited. The overall strategy is to short on rallies, with a reference range of 62,000 - 66,000 [9]. Nickel - The nickel market is affected by the rumored Philippine ore ban and tariff negotiation results. The cost support is strong, but the medium - term supply is loose, restricting the upside. The price is expected to be in a range - bound adjustment, with a reference range of 122,000 - 128,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is affected by tariff negotiation results. The ore price provides support, but the supply is excessive, and demand is slowly recovering. The inventory pressure eases slightly. The price is expected to be volatile, with a reference range of 12,600 - 13,200 [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 1.23% to 262,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 72.79% to - 43.01 dollars/ton [1]. Internal - External Price Ratio and Import Profit/Loss - The import loss decreased by 74.84% to - 2,373.05 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.19 [1]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of different contracts showed various changes, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increased by 37.50% [1]. Fundamental Data - In March, tin ore imports decreased by 4.83%, SMM refined tin production increased by 8.75%, and refined tin imports increased by 12.41%. The export of refined tin decreased by 29.50%, and the export of Indonesian refined tin increased by 46.15% [1]. Inventory Change - SHEF inventory decreased by 2.13%, social inventory increased by 3.66%, SHEF warrants decreased by 0.85%, and LME inventory increased by 3.14% [1]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.09% to 78,275 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased. The import loss increased to - 570 yuan/ton [2]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of different contracts decreased, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread decreased by 180 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Data - In April, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32% to 112.57 million tons. In March, imports increased by 15.24% to 30.88 million tons. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod decreased, and inventories in various regions decreased [2]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 1.02% to 19,810 yuan/ton. The spreads of different contracts showed various changes [4]. Fundamental Data - In April, alumina production decreased by 6.17% to 754.90 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.91% to 371.42 million tons. The operating rates of some aluminum products changed, and inventories decreased [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.22% to 22,720 yuan/ton. The spreads of different contracts decreased [6]. Fundamental Data - In April, refined zinc production increased by 0.31% to 50.98 million tons. In March, imports increased by 9.47% to 5.78 million tons, and exports decreased by 77.37% to 0.02 million tons. The operating rates of downstream industries increased, and inventories increased [6]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1.00% to 64,600 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 147.71% [9]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of different contracts showed various changes [9]. Fundamental Data - In April, lithium carbonate production decreased by 6.65% to 73,810 tons, and demand increased by 3.02% to 89,627 tons. In March, imports increased by 47.03% to 18,125 tons, and exports decreased by 47.25% to 220 tons [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.92% to 127,225 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 3.73% [11]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of different contracts showed various changes [11]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - In April, China's refined nickel production increased by 6.08% to 36,300 tons, and imports decreased by 68.84%. Inventories in various regions decreased [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B stainless - steel coils increased, and the basis decreased [14]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of different contracts showed various changes [14]. Fundamental Data - In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 11.37% to 344.01 million tons, and Indonesian production decreased by 6.67%. Imports decreased, exports increased, and inventories changed slightly [14].

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around **Apple Inc.** and the **consumer electronics industry**. Key Points and Arguments Trade Relations and Supply Chain Impact - The recent easing of US-China trade tensions has limited short-term impacts on Apple's supply chain, with current tariffs around **30%**. Most Apple products are either exempt from tariffs or face only **10%** tariffs on exports from Vietnam. Future tariff reductions are anticipated, but outcomes of negotiations post the **90-day exemption period** should be monitored closely [1][2][3] - The US market accounts for approximately **30%** of Apple's global sales, with AirPods and iWatch primarily exported from Vietnam. Production in mainland China serves non-US markets. India's production capacity is limited, but iPhones have received tariff exemptions [4] Consumer Electronics Sector Valuation - The consumer electronics sector is currently undervalued compared to the Shanghai Composite Index. While export chain stocks have shown recovery, there remains a significant gap in the supply chain, particularly for leading companies like Luxshare Precision [5] Innovation Cycle and Product Launches - Apple is in a major product iteration cycle, with expected launches of innovative products such as foldable devices, AirPods with cameras, budget MacBooks, and AI glasses by **2026**. These innovations are projected to have a stronger impact on the supply chain than previous products [6][8] - Upcoming products like the Apple Vision Pro are anticipated to launch in **Fall 2025**, further accelerating the innovation cycle [6] Supply Chain Benefits from Innovation - Apple's product innovations are expected to significantly benefit its supply chain companies. For instance, the introduction of a foldable iPad and a smartwatch with blood sugar monitoring capabilities is projected for **2027**, which will enhance revenues for companies involved in structural components, assembly, and equipment [9][10] Second Quarter Performance Expectations - For the second quarter, Luxshare Precision has provided positive performance forecasts, indicating good visibility in domestic markets. Despite the ongoing trade tensions, Apple’s preemptive inventory strategies have mitigated impacts on US sales, leading to expectations of stable growth across the sector [11] Upcoming Events and Industry Catalysts - The **WWDC** in June is expected to be a significant event, potentially unveiling major AI-related plans that could boost stock prices of related companies. The introduction of new products in the second half of the year will also be crucial for market dynamics [12] - The consumer electronics industry is currently experiencing a technological innovation cycle driven by AI advancements, with several companies planning product launches in the coming months [13][14] Future Outlook for Semiconductor Sector - Although the semiconductor sector may appear weak in the short term, there is a trend towards accelerating the validation of domestic materials in response to geopolitical pressures. Companies with unique production capabilities are expected to benefit in the medium term [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in US-China trade relations, particularly focusing on the significant progress made during the Geneva trade talks, where both sides agreed to reduce tariffs substantially, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions [2][4]. Group 1: Signals Released - The urgency from the US side is heightened due to upcoming holidays that require timely product shipments, which could impact the domestic market if unresolved [4]. - The trade friction, if not addressed, could lead to inflation and negatively affect the US stock and bond markets, which is undesirable for the Trump administration [4][5]. - Both countries recognize the need for cooperation, with the US requiring a stable relationship with China for economic reasons, while China aims to avoid deterioration in relations for mutual benefits [5][6]. Group 2: Disadvantages of "Reciprocal Tariff" Policy - Trump's tariff policy is not new but reflects his long-standing focus on tariffs and immigration issues, aiming to boost US revenue and reduce trade deficits [8]. - The policy risks exacerbating inflation and weakening the global competitiveness of US companies, while also alienating major trade partners [8][9]. - The long-term impact on the US's international image and economic cooperation could be detrimental, as the country faces growing skepticism regarding its economic direction and policy stability [9]. Group 3: US in a "Trial and Error" Phase - The fundamental impact of the tariff policy is more about obstructing China's development rather than just trade relations, driven by political motives rather than economic ones [11]. - The structural contradictions in US-China relations remain unchanged, with the US facing systemic issues such as intense political rivalry, wealth disparity, racial tensions, and cultural divides [12]. - The current trend of "de-globalization" suggests that economic friction between the US and China will persist, although there are signs of positive developments from the recent talks [13][14]. - The relationship is expected to return to rationality over time, but this transformation may take about ten years, as the US navigates through its "trial and error" phase [15].

21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 美国政府滥施关税一度引发全球风险资产暴跌，避险资产光芒四射。但短短一个月后，市场风险偏好回 升，全球资产表现"大逆转"。 当地时间5月12日，风险资产再获青睐，避险资产大幅回调。美股高开高走，三大指数大幅收涨，均收 于3月以来的最高水平。美债下挫，10年期美债收益率逼近4.5%关口。2年期美债收益率一度突破4%。 现货金下跌2.7%，收报每盎司3233.72美元。 据新华社报道，中美经贸高层会谈5月10日至11日在瑞士举行，受到国际社会高度关注。经过双方共同 努力，中美在多个领域进行了坦诚、深入、具有建设性的沟通，达成一系列重要共识，取得实质性进 展，迈出了通过平等对话协商解决分歧的重要一步，为进一步弥合分歧和深化合作打下了基础、创造了 条件。 5月12日，中美双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。商务部新闻发言人就此发表谈话。美方承 诺取消根据2025年4月8日第14259号行政令和2025年4月9日第14266号行政令对中国商品加征的共计91% 的关税，修改2025年4月2日第14257号行政令对中国商品加征的34%的对等关税，其中24%的关税暂停 加征90天，保留剩 ...

日前，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布，牵动资本市场脉搏。 券商中国记者注意到，摩根大通、野村东方国际、摩根士丹利、瑞银等四大外资机构发布最新观点。四大外资 一致认为，本次中美经贸高层会谈成功超市场预期，释放积极信号，中国经济增长预期改善。 一是内需复苏主线，涉及行业中估值弹性较大的是食品饮料、业绩弹性较大的是房地产、政策弹性较大的是医 药，以及内需消费升级相关的服务消费、品质必需消费与潮玩可选消费； 二是伴随央行"促进物价合理回升"的政策表态，关注PPI修复预期带动的周期品，尤其是中国定价权更强的钢 铁、煤炭和铝等； 三是把握高景气科技领域的产业迭代趋势，关注AI、储能和各类长验证周期的题材如国产替代和商业航天 等。 同时，本周以来，多家券商发布研报看好中国科技板块，中国资产重估的逻辑仍在。此外，根据摩根士丹利最 新研报，海外投资者增配中国股票的意向也在上升。 摩根大通朱海斌：经贸会谈成果超预期，释放积极信号 摩根大通中国首席经济学家兼大中华区经济研究主管朱海斌认为，中美日内瓦经贸会谈成果超预期，释放积极 信号。与此同时，摩根大通上调了中国2025年全年GDP增速预测至4.8%。 朱海斌分析称，美中双方同 ...

中美经贸高层会谈10日至11日在瑞士日内瓦举行。12日，双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。 来自美国多个行业的人士对此表示欢迎。他们认为，这表明世界上最大的两个经济体正通过平等对话协 商解决分歧、寻求互利共赢，符合两国最佳利益。 ...