Core Viewpoint - The recent phone conversations between Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump highlight escalating tensions following a drone attack on Putin's residence, with both leaders discussing the implications for U.S.-Ukraine relations and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine [1][2]. Group 1: Phone Conversations - Trump and Putin had consecutive phone calls, with Trump briefing Putin on his meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky, which took place at Mar-a-Lago [1]. - The discussions emphasized the need for Ukraine to take concrete measures to resolve the conflict rather than seeking temporary ceasefires [1]. Group 2: Drone Attack Incident - Putin informed Trump about a drone attack on his residence, which shocked Trump, who described the act as "madness" and expressed relief that the U.S. had not provided Ukraine with cruise missiles [2]. - The Russian side views the drone attack as a significant escalation and has warned of severe responses, indicating a potential reevaluation of previous negotiations and positions [1][2]. Group 3: Reactions and Implications - Zelensky dismissed the Russian claims regarding the drone attack as fabrications aimed at undermining cooperation with the Trump administration [2]. - Trump suggested that Ukraine should accept the current situation and withdraw troops from the Donbas region, indicating a lack of progress in U.S.-Ukraine discussions [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Synthetic rubber: Weakly bearish [1] - Silver: Caution against excessive bullishness [1] - Live pigs: Short - term rebound adjustment [3] - Rapeseed meal: Bullish in the short - term [4] - Palm oil: Bullish in the short - term [4] - Crude oil: Weakly bearish [5] - Asphalt: Weakly bearish [7] - Copper: Alert to price correction risks [7] - Methanol: Bearish in the short - term [8] - Soda ash: Slightly bearish in the short - term [9] - PVC: Bullish in the short - term [10] - Long - term treasury bonds: Slightly bullish for long - term, more bullish for short - term [11] - Gold: Caution against excessive bullishness, mid - term high - level oscillation [11] Core Views - The supply and demand situation of various commodities affects their price trends. For example, high domestic production capacity utilization and new production plans suppress the price increase of synthetic rubber, while the increase in exports and decline in production support the price of palm oil [1][4]. - Macro - events and policies have an impact on the market. For instance, the Japanese economic situation affects the silver market, and the expected monetary policy environment in China affects the bond market [1][11]. - The resolution of geopolitical conflicts may change the market sentiment. The potential peace plan in the Russia - Ukraine conflict may reduce the safe - haven demand for gold and silver [11]. Summary by Commodity Synthetic Rubber - As of December 26, the weekly capacity utilization of butadiene was 70.61%, up 0.6% from last week, and the port inventory was 43,300 tons, up 7,300 tons. In November 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 13.01 million tons, down 0.75 million tons from the previous month. As of December 25, the weekly capacity utilization of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 76.76%, up 0.5% from last week. High domestic main - unit operating rates and new production and restart plans suppress spot price increases. Demand from industries like tires is in the end - of - year stocking phase, with weak willingness to buy at high prices [1]. Silver - The Japanese cabinet passed the initial budget for fiscal year 2026, with general account expenditures reaching 122.31 trillion yen, up about 7 trillion yen year - on - year. The economic recovery in Japan provides support for the Bank of Japan's implementation of a tight monetary policy. Silver has risen too much, with insufficient short - term upward momentum and an increased probability of peaking [1]. Live Pigs - As of December 26, the average live - pig slaughter weight was 123.55 kg, down 0.12 kg; the weekly slaughter operating rate was 40.12%, up 0.53%; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 223.82 yuan per head, up 9.91 yuan; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was - 66.57 yuan per head, up 6.58 yuan; the piglet price was 217.38 yuan per head, down 1.19 yuan. The national pig price rose significantly on the weekend. Supply is generally abundant, but there is a short - term shortage of medium and large pigs, supporting a phased price rebound [3]. Rapeseed Meal - As of the 51st week of 2025, the coastal oil - mill rapeseed meal inventory was 0 million tons, down 0.02 million tons from last week; the inventory in East China was 17.91 million tons, unchanged; the inventory in South China was 24 million tons, down 0.80 million tons; the inventory in North China was 3.75 million tons, down 0.24 million tons; the total inventory in major regions was 45.66 million tons, down 1.06 million tons. The delayed import of rapeseed for crushing in China leads to a short - term shortage of rapeseed meal supply, and the spot price has risen [4]. Palm Oil - From December 1 - 25, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 8.49% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.12% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 9.12% month - on - month. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from December 1 - 25, 2025, was 1,017,897 tons, up 3.0% from the same period last month. The increase in exports and decline in production provide continuous bullish support for the market [4]. Crude Oil - Russia's crude oil production in 2025 will be about 516 million tons, the same as last year, and is expected to increase to 525 million tons in 2026. Investors are worried about global over - supply, and international oil prices have fallen by more than 2%. However, Russia will continue to operate within the OPEC+ framework, so its oil supply will still be adjusted according to OPEC+ goals [5]. Asphalt - In January 2026, the domestic asphalt total planned production is 2 million tons, down 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and down 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. The capacity utilization of 69 domestic sample modified asphalt enterprises this week was 7.1%, down 0.6% month - on - month and up 0.8% year - on - year. As of December 25, 2025, the total social inventory of domestic asphalt in 104 warehouses was 1.071 million tons. The shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises this week was 404,000 tons, up 15.4% month - on - month. The market has limited upward driving force due to weak fundamentals and sufficient raw material supply [7]. Copper - MMG has approved the feasibility study of the major expansion project of the Khoemacau copper mine in Botswana and officially started construction. The project aims to increase the annual production capacity to 130,000 tons of copper in copper concentrate and the annual production of associated silver to more than 4 million ounces. The project is expected to produce the first batch of copper concentrate in the first half of 2028. The new copper mine is unlikely to relieve the short - term supply shortage. High copper prices have suppressed downstream procurement, and there is a risk of price correction [7]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu, is 2,135 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The weekly domestic methanol capacity utilization is 91.24%, up 0.71% month - on - month. The 400,000 - ton/year methanol plant of Sichuan Lutianhua is expected to end maintenance this week. The total downstream capacity utilization is 74.26%, down 0.52% week - on - week. The inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.4125 million tons, up 193,700 tons week - on - week. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 404,000 tons, up 12,800 tons week - on - week, and the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises are 193,600 tons, down 26,800 tons week - on - week. High domestic methanol production and falling downstream demand lead to a large increase in port inventory [8]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of national heavy - duty soda ash is 1,255 yuan/ton, with a stable recent price. The weekly soda ash production is 711,900 tons, down 1.32% month - on - month. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.4385 million tons, down 4.06% week - on - week. The operating rate of float glass is 73.89%, down 0.1 percentage points week - on - week. The national average price of float glass is 1,076 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 58.623 million weight boxes, up 0.11% week - on - week. The domestic soda ash market is stable and dull, with light trading [9]. PVC - The price of SG - 5 PVC in East China is 4,500 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. The PVC capacity utilization is 77.23%, down 0.15% month - on - month. The PVC social inventory is 1.0611 million tons, up 0.43% month - on - month. The average profit of national calcium - carbide - based PVC production enterprises is - 760 yuan/ton; the average profit of national ethylene - based PVC production enterprises is - 336 yuan/ton. The operating rate of domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises is 36.2%, down 1.4 percentage points month - on - month. The supply is expected to increase slightly this week, and the market may see a holiday - related inventory build - up. The demand is weak, but the cost provides strong support [10]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - The CSRC and other relevant departments will improve the institutional and policy environment for long - term investment, increase the scale and proportion of medium - and long - term funds invested in A - shares, and promote the improvement of the quality of listed companies. The long - term funds in the stock market still support the stock market. There is an expectation of monetary easing at the beginning of the year, resulting in a double - bull pattern of stocks and bonds [11]. Gold - Trump and Zelensky held a meeting on the proposed Russia - Ukraine "peace plan." Trump said that both Zelensky and Putin hope to reach a peace agreement. The resolution of the Russia - Ukraine conflict needs continuous attention, and the safe - haven sentiment may further cool down [11].

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price increased by 2.41% to $10,624.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper decreased by 1.77% to 84,400 yuan per ton [1][12] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 0.55 thousand tons to 17.75 thousand tons due to weak downstream consumption and replenishment of imported sources [1][12] - The operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises rose to 62.5%, up 19.06% week-on-week, but down 16.39% year-on-year, indicating a recovery post-holiday but still below pre-holiday levels [1][12] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.82% to $2,796.00 per ton, while Shanghai aluminum decreased by 0.33% to 20,900 yuan per ton [2][13] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 2.3 thousand tons, indicating a slight recovery in demand [2][13] - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing enterprises remained stable at 62.5%, with a year-on-year decline of 1.4% [2][13] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 7.65% to $4,344.30 per ounce, influenced by U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical risks [3][14] - SPDR gold holdings increased by 17.46 tons to 1,034.62 tons, reflecting increased demand amid market uncertainties [3][14] - The U.S. government shutdown has led to delays in key economic data releases, impacting the economy and the dollar's position [3][14] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 9.01% to 507,100 yuan per ton, with expectations of price recovery due to overseas replenishment [4][32] - The strategic importance of rare earths has increased due to regulatory changes, with a positive outlook for major companies in the sector [4][32] - The implementation of new regulations is expected to gradually show positive effects on supply and pricing [4][32] Group 5: Antimony - Antimony price decreased by 4.08%, but demand is expected to recover due to the stabilization of photovoltaic glass production [4][33] - The implementation of stricter standards for flame-retardant cables may provide a demand boost for antimony [4][33] - Global antimony prices are expected to trend upward due to resource scarcity and reduced supply from major mines [4][33] Group 6: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.63% to 73,100 yuan per ton, while lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.43% to 78,200 yuan per ton [5][60] - Total lithium carbonate production increased to 21,100 tons, reflecting a slight recovery in supply [5][60] - Strong demand from the energy storage sector is expected to support lithium prices despite recent supply increases [5][60] Group 7: Cobalt - Cobalt price increased by 9% to 381,000 yuan per ton, driven by tight supply conditions [5][61] - The market is characterized by a "price without market" phenomenon, with strong upward pressure on prices due to raw material shortages [5][61] - Future price increases are anticipated as supply constraints from Congo continue to affect the market [5][61] Group 8: Nickel - LME nickel price increased by 0.1% to $15,200 per ton, while Shanghai nickel price decreased by 0.6% to 121,200 yuan per ton [5][62] - Concerns over the stability of nickel ore supply due to regulatory changes in Indonesia are providing short-term support for prices [5][62] - The market is expected to remain volatile due to the interplay between supply disruptions and weak fundamentals [5][62]

Market Overview - The US dollar index weakened overall this week, dropping to 98.42, with a significant decline following a brief return above 99 [1] - Gold prices reached a historic high, nearing $4380 per ounce, and closed at $4277 per ounce, while silver also surged past $54 per ounce [1] - Non-US currencies appreciated against the dollar due to its weakness, with the euro, pound, and yen all recording gains [1] - International oil prices continued to decline for the third consecutive week, with warnings of a severe global supply surplus by 2026 contributing to the downward trend [1] US Stock Market - The US stock market maintained high-level fluctuations, with a notable rally driven by technology stocks early in the week, but later showed signs of weakness [2] - Concerns over credit quality arose after two regional banks disclosed loan fraud and bad debt issues, leading to a 6.2% drop in the regional bank index and a loss of over $100 billion in market value [2] Investment Bank Insights - A survey by Bank of America indicated that going long on gold has become the most crowded trade, surpassing investments in major US tech stocks [5] - Several investment banks have raised their gold price forecasts, with ANZ predicting a peak of $4600 per ounce by June next year, and Bank of America increasing its forecast to $5000 per ounce [5] Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - Market expectations for significant rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have intensified, with traders betting on at least a 50 basis point cut by year-end [8] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted risks in the labor market and indicated that the Fed would adjust monetary policy based on economic outlook rather than a preset path [8][9] - The use of the Fed's standing repo facility surged to $6.75 billion, raising concerns about liquidity in the market [9] Banking Sector Concerns - The regional banking sector faced turmoil due to revelations of loan fraud, with significant market value losses and heightened investor concerns about credit quality [13] - Major banks have shown a mixed approach to provisioning for future bad debts, with some increasing reserves while others reported record low provisioning levels [13] Gold Market Regulation - The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a risk warning regarding the volatility in gold prices, urging members to enhance risk management practices [14] International Relations and Trade - The White House is set to extend tariff exemptions on imported auto parts, providing relief to manufacturers [16][17] - Tensions between the US and India arose after Trump claimed that India would cease purchasing Russian oil, which India denied [22] Economic Recognition - The Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to three economists for their contributions to understanding innovation-driven economic growth [25]

Core Points - The phone call between Russian President Putin and US President Trump lasted nearly an hour and covered bilateral relations, the Ukraine issue, and the situation in Iran and the Middle East [1][3] - Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the call, stating that no progress was made on the discussed topics [1][7] Group 1: Ukraine Situation - The leaders exchanged views on the Ukraine situation, with Trump urging for an early end to hostilities in Ukraine [3] - Putin emphasized Russia's willingness to continue negotiations but will not abandon the fundamental causes of the Ukraine crisis [3][5] - Trump revealed that the US was unaware of Ukraine's plans to strike Russian airports during their discussions [7] Group 2: Humanitarian Agreements and Communication - Putin informed Trump about the execution of humanitarian agreements reached in the second round of direct Russia-Ukraine negotiations [5] - Both leaders agreed to maintain communication through their respective diplomatic and defense departments [5] Group 3: Other Topics Discussed - The leaders discussed the situation in Iran and agreed to continue contact regarding this issue [5] - They also talked about the latest developments in Syria and explored several joint projects in the energy and space exploration sectors [5] - Putin congratulated Trump on Independence Day and wished him success in implementing his reforms [5]

乌沙科夫还称，两国领导人今天没有就举行会晤的可能性进行讨论，双方会晤的问题仍然悬而未决。 乌沙科夫表示，普京与特朗普今日通话中未涉及美国停止对乌武器供应这一议题。双方也没有讨论俄乌伊 斯坦布尔第三轮谈判的具体日期。乌沙科夫称，在与特朗普的通话中，普京强调了通过政治和外交手段解 决中东问题的重要性。乌沙科夫表示，必要时可在24小时内组织新一轮两国元首通话。 据央视新闻，当地时间7月3日，俄罗斯总统助理乌沙科夫表示，俄总统普京与美总统特朗普的通话结 束，通话持续了约一小时。他表示，普京与特朗普的谈话"在同一频率上"，谈话务实且具体。 乌沙科夫表示，普京在与特朗普的通话中指出，俄罗斯愿意继续与乌克兰的谈判进程。乌沙科夫还称，特 朗普在与普京的通话中提出了尽早结束对乌克兰军事行动的问题。 ...

据塔斯社：在普京与特朗普通话后，克里姆林宫将向记者通报情况。 ...

克里姆林宫助理乌沙科夫：普京与特朗普的通话意义重大且非常有益。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index - defensive wait - and - see; Treasury bonds - short - term optimistic, currently in a volatile state [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - temporary wait - and - see; Iron ore - temporary wait - and - see; Coking coal and coke - volatile operation [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - cautious trading within a range; Aluminum - light - position short - selling recommended; Nickel - wait - and - see or short - selling on rallies; Tin - weakly volatile; Gold - trading within a range; Silver - trading within a range [1][11][15] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - weakly volatile; Soda ash - short - selling strategy for the 01 contract; Caustic soda - weakly volatile; Styrene - weakly volatile; Rubber - weakly volatile; Urea - weakly volatile; Methanol - weakly volatile; Polyolefins - wide - range volatility [1][20][22] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - volatile rebound; Apples - volatile operation; PTA - range - bound volatility [1][33][34] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs - short - selling on rallies; Eggs - short - selling on rallies; Corn - operating within the range of [2300, 2360]; Soybean meal - short - term operation within the range of [2900, 3000], long - term buying on dips; Oils - short - selling on rallies [1][35][40] Core Views - Overall, the market is affected by multiple factors such as international politics, trade policies, and supply - demand fundamentals. Most varieties are in a volatile state, and investors need to pay attention to various factors and adjust their investment strategies accordingly. For example, the impact of US economic data and tariff policies on the financial and commodity markets, and the influence of supply - demand relationships on the prices of various commodities [5][21][36] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index**: Due to factors such as weak US economic data, geopolitical issues, and tariff disturbances, the index is expected to continue its structural market of volatility and sector rotation before the trading volume effectively increases [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is currently in a low - volatility environment, driven by news. The pattern of trading based on NCDs may continue. It is recommended that allocation portfolios buy on dips, while trading portfolios have limited short - term operation space [5] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: Although the price rebounded on Wednesday due to the increase in coking coal prices, the demand is expected to weaken seasonally. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, and the inventory may accumulate slightly. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [7] - **Iron Ore**: The disk is volatile and strong. The supply and demand fundamentals have little impact, and it is mainly affected by macro news. The port inventory is expected to continue to decline, and the disk is expected to be volatile [7][8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is affected by factors such as safety inspections and weak demand, and the price may be weakly volatile. The coke market has not resolved its supply - demand contradictions, and the price still has downward pressure [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro - level disturbances are weakening, but the mine - end disturbances continue. The supply shortage pressure is difficult to change, and the consumption is relatively stable. The price is expected to be volatile before the holiday [11] - **Aluminum**: The supply of bauxite is currently loose, but the impact of mine - end disturbances will gradually appear. The demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [13] - **Nickel**: The cost is firm, but the medium - and long - term supply is excessive. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and interval trading is recommended [15][16] - **Tin**: The supply and demand gap is improving, but it is affected by US tariff policies. The price is expected to be volatile, and interval trading is recommended [17] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies, inflation data, and central bank policies, the prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and cautious interval trading is recommended [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is under pressure, the demand is insufficient, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is relatively sufficient in the medium term, and the demand increment is limited. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as alumina production and maintenance [22][23] - **Styrene**: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as crude oil prices and pure benzene imports [24][25] - **Rubber**: The demand has not improved significantly, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to inventory and downstream demand [26][27] - **Urea**: The supply is high, the demand is limited, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as coal prices and fertilizer demand [28][29] - **Methanol**: The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as coal prices and methanol - to - olefins start - up rates [30][31] - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be widely volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as new capacity investment and downstream demand [31][32] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, the downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. A short - selling strategy for the 01 contract is recommended [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: Although the global supply - demand is still loose, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations is expected to drive the price to rebound [33] - **Apples**: The market is stable, and the price is expected to be volatile [33] - **PTA**: Affected by the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of downstream demand, the price is under short - term pressure and is expected to be range - bound [34] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [35][36] - **Eggs**: The short - term demand is weak, and the medium - term supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [37][38] - **Corn**: The short - term price has support, and the medium - and long - term supply - demand is tightening, but the price increase is limited by substitutes. It is recommended to buy on dips within the range [39][40] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be range - bound. The medium - and long - term price is expected to be strong due to cost and weather factors. It is recommended to operate within the range in the short term and buy on dips after mid - June [40][41] - **Oils**: Different oil varieties have different supply - demand situations. The short - term prices are expected to be range - bound, and interval trading is recommended. The strategy of expanding the spread of some varieties is temporarily suspended [41][46]

Group 1 - The new South Korean president, Lee Jae-myung, is expected to improve China-South Korea relations, with China emphasizing mutual benefits and stability in diplomatic ties [2] - White Elephant Food apologized for potential consumer confusion regarding its product sizes and will adjust packaging to clarify [3] - The investigation into a male teacher at Anhui Normal University, who was previously disciplined for misconduct, is ongoing, with the university taking immediate action to suspend him [4] Group 2 - OpenAI has surpassed 3 million paid enterprise users, a significant increase from 2 million reported in February, and expects revenue of $12.7 billion this year, up from a previous estimate of $3.7 billion [17][18] - Amazon plans to invest $10 billion in a new data center in North Carolina to expand its AI infrastructure, creating 500 jobs [21][22] - Tesla's entry into the rural market is marked by its inclusion in the 2025 New Energy Vehicle rural promotion list, which could lead to increased sales [23]