农商行
Search documents
兴业证券:后续还有哪些催化值得期待?
智通财经网· 2026-01-25 11:55
智通财经APP获悉,兴业证券发布研究报告称,其曾强调,此次降温影响的更多是行情的节奏、结构而 非整体趋势,支撑春季行情向上的核心逻辑并未发生任何变化,本轮春季行情仍在半途。本周来看,虽 然行情节奏趋缓,但向上趋势仍在延续,并且结构上赚钱效应正在朝着更广的范围扩散。 兴业证券主要观点如下: 一、流动性充裕的环境下,后续还有哪些催化值得期待? 当前年报预告业绩超预期的个股主要集中在存储、电池储能、电网设备、化工、创新药等方向。我们将 个股净利润预告中位数/快报净利润超出披露前一致预期10%以上定义为"业绩超预期",当前来看主要集 流动性充裕是支撑本轮春季行情向上的核心驱动力,背后来源于险资"开门红"支撑新增保费入市、居民 存款集中到期与人民币升值吸引的境外资金回流。 一方面,根据渠道数据,今年险资"开门红"表现亮眼,支撑大量新增保费入市。根据险企观察公众号披 露的渠道数据,截至1月中旬,头部公司个险保费增速普遍超30%,多家公司个险期交保费已突破百亿 关口,银保渠道甚至出现翻倍增长。新增保费30%需要入市的硬性配置需求,为市场带来大量增量资 金。 另一方面,根据居民定期存款到期期限推算,今年上半年将是居民存款集中 ...
兴业证券:A股业绩预告即将进入披露高峰 关注哪些方向?
智通财经网· 2026-01-20 10:56
Core Viewpoint - As of January 19, the disclosure rate of annual performance forecasts for A-shares is 7.98%, with a peak expected in late January, where the final disclosure rate may reach around 55% [2][5]. Group 1: Performance Forecasts - The performance forecasts indicate that companies with significant net profit growth are primarily in sectors such as computing power, new energy, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and computers [6][10]. - By January 19, 447 A-share companies have released annual performance forecasts, with 144 companies expecting net profit growth exceeding 50%, mainly in computing power (semiconductors, communication equipment), new energy (batteries, photovoltaics), and chemicals [6][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - As the performance forecasts enter their peak disclosure period, the correlation between stock prices and performance is expected to increase significantly in the latter half of January, with market sentiment returning to rationality [5]. - The market is likely to undergo a structural adjustment based on fundamentals, with previous hot sectors facing performance validation, while some low-performing but high-quality sectors may attract new capital inflows [5]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The sectors with upward revisions in profit forecasts since November include technology (especially in upstream computing hardware and downstream applications like consumer electronics and software), advanced manufacturing (new energy, military, automotive), and cyclical industries (building materials, non-ferrous metals, coal, steel) [12][13]. - The industries with lower performance growth since the last market rally include AI computing power, new energy, pharmaceuticals, and cyclical sectors like steel and glass fiber [14].
红利情报局:高股息资产展现较强性价比,煤价有望走出底部区间
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-16 09:32
Core Insights - High dividend assets are showing strong cost-effectiveness, with coal prices expected to recover from their bottom range [1][4][12] Group 1: Dividend Assets - The shift in residents' wealth from real estate to securities has been noted, with the 10-year government bond yield remaining low and capital gains uncertain. If CPI/PPI rises, the cost-effectiveness of allocations may further decline. However, dividend assets maintain a dividend yield that is above the mean and one standard deviation, indicating long-term allocation value [4][12] - Economic stabilization and recovery could lead to growth in the earnings of dividend assets, potentially resulting in higher returns [4][12] Group 2: Coal Industry - The coal mining sector is experiencing rigid supply with limited growth in new capacity. Policies are being implemented to stabilize the market and curb overproduction, which supports a gradual recovery in coal prices. Steady growth in electricity demand is also contributing to this recovery [4][12] - Future attention may be directed towards non-electric coal usage, particularly focusing on leading companies in thermal coal that exhibit high dividends, profitability, and cash flow, as well as coking coal enterprises with high marketization and supply elasticity [4][12] Group 3: Dividend Yield Rankings - The top five sectors by dividend yield over the past 12 months include coal mining (5.89%), white goods (5.29%), rural commercial banks (4.84%), joint-stock banks (4.77%), and city commercial banks (4.61%) [5][13]
港股红利类ETF净流入创年内新高 | 红利情报局(2025.12.3)
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-03 09:30
Core Insights - In October, Hong Kong's technology ETFs maintained high net inflows, comparable to levels seen in March and April 2025. Additionally, Hong Kong's dividend ETFs recorded a significant net inflow of 5.463 billion yuan, marking the highest monthly inflow in the first ten months of 2025 [3][11] - The Southbound trading net buying volume in October exceeded historical levels since 2019, with the oil and petrochemical sector ranking as the second highest in net buying among industries [11] - The home appliance sector outperformed the CSI 300 index in November, with white goods leading the gains. Despite a decline in domestic sales due to national subsidy exhaustion, the sector saw a 3.4% increase in November, driven by stable operations and high dividend characteristics of leading companies [3][11] Industry Performance - The top five sectors by dividend yield over the past 12 months include: - Coal Mining: 5.73% - Joint-stock Banks: 5.26% - Home Appliances: 4.92% - Agricultural Commercial Banks: 4.67% - Shipping Ports: 4.50% [4][12] - The performance of the Hua Bao Dividend Family Index over the past month showed varied results, with the CSI 300 index at -3.81% and other indices also reflecting negative trends [14] Investment Opportunities - The white goods sector is highlighted for its resilience and attractiveness due to its high dividend yield and low valuation levels, making it a target for capital inflows [3][11] - The dividend-focused ETFs, particularly those with low volatility, are positioned as favorable investment options, reflecting a trend towards stable income generation in the current market environment [6][8]
晨会纪要:2025年第188期-20251105
Guohai Securities· 2025-11-05 03:12
Key Insights - The report highlights a rebound in the electrolyte industry, with significant growth potential in fluorinated liquids, particularly for the company Xinzhou Bang, which reported a revenue of 6.616 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.75% [6][10] - The company achieved a net profit of 748 million yuan, up 6.64% year-on-year, with a sales gross margin of 24.51%, reflecting a decline of 2.58 percentage points [6][10] - The report indicates that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery in the electrolyte market, driven by rising prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and improved operational efficiency [10][11] Group 1: Xinzhou Bang (Battery) - The company reported a revenue of 2.368 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.60% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.45% [7] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 264 million yuan, down 7.51% year-on-year but up 4.03% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a mixed performance [7][8] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and enhancing operational efficiency, with a stable growth trajectory in its organic fluorine chemicals and electronic information chemicals [9][10] Group 2: Weijian Medical (Personal Care Products) - The company achieved a revenue of 7.897 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.10%, with a net profit of 732 million yuan, up 32.36% [13][14] - The medical segment saw a revenue increase of 44.4%, driven by strong growth in surgical consumables and high-end dressings [14] - The consumer segment also performed well, with a revenue of 4.01 billion yuan, up 19.1%, led by significant growth in the sales of sanitary products [15] Group 3: Longqi Technology (Consumer Electronics) - The company reported a revenue of 31.332 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.28%, but a net profit increase of 17.74% [21] - In Q3 2025, the revenue was 11.424 billion yuan, down 9.62% year-on-year, while the net profit increased by 64.46% [22] - The company is expanding its product portfolio under the "1+2+X" strategy, focusing on smart devices and automotive electronics [23][24] Group 4: Minxin Technology (Semiconductors) - The company reported a revenue of 464 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 37.73%, with a gross margin of 30.28% [25][26] - In Q3 2025, the revenue was 160 million yuan, up 21.9% year-on-year, indicating strong demand for pressure and inertial sensors [25][27] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growth of MEMS sensors in the AI era, with a diverse product matrix [26][28] Group 5: Yingly Technology (General Equipment) - The company reported a revenue of 2.121 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.02%, with a net profit of 294 million yuan, up 29.59% [35][36] - The company is expanding its processing and coating capabilities in the blade and casing industry, which is expected to enhance its production capacity [37] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 38.03%, reflecting a significant improvement in profitability [38] Group 6: Weichai Power (Automotive Parts) - The company reported a revenue of 170.57 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, with a net profit of 8.88 billion yuan, up 5.7% [44] - In Q3 2025, the revenue was 57.42 billion yuan, up 16.1% year-on-year, driven by strong demand in the heavy truck sector [44] - The company is benefiting from the recovery in the heavy truck market, with significant growth in natural gas and electric vehicle sales [44]
风险偏好修复期如何看高股息?| 华宝红利情报局(2025.9.25)
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-09-25 10:01
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of risk appetite in the market and its implications for high-dividend assets, suggesting a focus on cyclical and potential dividend stocks in the near future [5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market's risk appetite recovery is a short-term constraint on the relative returns of high-dividend assets [5]. - The third batch of national subsidies is being distributed, but some regions still face challenges in accessing these funds, indicating a gradual release of liquidity in the subsidy system [4]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - It is recommended to focus on cyclical dividend stocks related to "anti-involution" such as chemicals and steel, as well as potential dividend stocks in sectors like railways, highways, liquor, and food processing [5]. - The scarcity of national subsidy resources may lead brands to shift from broad coverage to targeted investments, particularly in mid-to-high-end products, which could enhance overall brand pricing and profitability [4]. Group 3: Dividend Yield Rankings - The top five sectors by dividend yield over the past 12 months include: - White goods: 4.98% - Coal mining: 5.19% - Joint-stock banks II: 5.02% - Refining and trading: 4.63% - Rural commercial banks II: 4.66% [6]. Group 4: Performance of Dividend Indices - The performance of various dividend indices from September 11 to September 24, 2025, shows fluctuations, with the overall trend indicating a mixed response in the market [6][8]. - The article provides a detailed overview of the performance of different dividend indices, highlighting the importance of dividend stability and cash flow in investment strategies [10][11].
国海证券晨会纪要-20250901
Guohai Securities· 2025-09-01 01:33
Group 1 - The report highlights the growth trend in the treatment of hemorrhoids products and the potential for expanding into wet wipes business, with a focus on the company's strong performance in the first half of 2025 [5][6][7] - The company achieved a revenue of 1.949 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.11%, and a net profit of 343 million yuan, up 10.04% year-on-year [6][7] - The company is extending its product line into the field of anal health, with rapid growth in wet wipes, leveraging its established brand recognition and user base [7] Group 2 - The report discusses the strategic focus on financial technology and the acceleration of AI model applications by the company, which reported a revenue of 1.208 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 48.55% year-on-year [8][9] - The company is narrowing its business focus to financial technology, reducing non-financial IT business, while maintaining investment in core technology and product areas [9][10] - The new generation of core products is being developed to enhance self-operated technology services, with significant investments in AI [11][12] Group 3 - The report indicates that the secondary market is under pressure, with new infrastructure turnover rates leading the market, as evidenced by the issuance of 14 public REITs in 2025, a decrease from the previous year [13][14] - The REITs index has faced declines, with the market's total value dropping to 215.894 billion yuan, while the trading activity has increased slightly [14][15] - New infrastructure sectors are showing higher turnover rates, particularly in park infrastructure, which is leading in transaction volume [15] Group 4 - The report notes that competition in the food delivery sector is intensifying, leading to significant pressure on profits, with the company reporting a revenue of 91.8 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12% [18][19] - The core local business revenue grew by 8% to 65.3 billion yuan, but operating profits fell sharply due to increased delivery subsidies and marketing expenses [19][20] - The company is optimistic about its long-term growth potential in instant delivery and overseas expansion despite short-term profit pressures [21][22] Group 5 - The report highlights the company's investments in digital and cultural sectors, with a stable revenue of 1.179 billion yuan in H1 2025, and a focus on expanding its digital technology and cultural offerings [23][24] - The online gaming segment showed a revenue increase of 9% to 706 million yuan, while the digital marketing services revenue grew by 14% [24][25] - The company is actively investing in various innovative business areas, including digital sports and arts, to enhance its market presence [25][26] Group 6 - The report indicates that the company achieved a revenue of 13.38 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27.9%, with a significant rise in overseas sales [31][32] - The company is focusing on expanding its IP matrix and targeting a broader age demographic, with a notable increase in sales from online channels [33][34] - The company is adjusting its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 34.18 billion yuan, 47.16 billion yuan, and 57.25 billion yuan respectively [36]
8月28日晚间重要公告一览
Xi Niu Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 10:28
Group 1 - Xinhua Media achieved a net profit of 32.34 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.29% [1] - Xinhua Media's operating income for the first half of 2025 was 631 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 2.45% [1] - China Galaxy reported a net profit of 6.488 billion yuan, up 47.86% year-on-year, with an operating income of 137.47 billion yuan, a 37.71% increase [2] Group 2 - Lek Electric's net profit decreased by 29.01% to 428 million yuan, despite a slight revenue increase of 0.65% to 4.781 billion yuan [3] - Honghui Fruits and Vegetables reported a net profit of 6.9243 million yuan, down 44.82%, with revenue of 470 million yuan, up 7.86% [4] - Bull Group's net profit fell by 8% to 2.06 billion yuan, with a revenue decline of 2.6% to 8.168 billion yuan [5] Group 3 - Nanshan Aluminum achieved a net profit of 2.625 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.95%, with operating income of 17.274 billion yuan, up 10.25% [6] - Zhujiang Beer reported a net profit of 612 million yuan, a 22.51% increase, with revenue of 3.198 billion yuan, up 7.09% [8] - Baolong Technology's net profit decreased by 9.15% to 135 million yuan, with revenue growth of 24.06% to 3.95 billion yuan [10] Group 4 - Jindi Co. reported a net profit of 75.93 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.86%, with operating income of 835 million yuan, up 40.57% [12] - China Vision Media turned a profit with a net profit of 19.9811 million yuan, compared to a loss of 18.4349 million yuan in the previous year, despite a revenue decline of 10.75% to 229 million yuan [14] - Botao Bio's net profit fell by 82.82% to 12.4024 million yuan, with revenue down 23.91% to 203 million yuan [16] Group 5 - Caitong Securities reported a net profit of 1.083 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.85%, with operating income of 2.959 billion yuan, down 2.19% [18] - Yili Group's net profit decreased by 4.39% to 7.2 billion yuan, with revenue growth of 3.49% to 61.777 billion yuan [19] - Springlight Technology achieved a net profit of 7.3787 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 83.73%, with revenue of 251 million yuan, up 39.6% [20] Group 6 - China Haifeng reported a net profit of 94.5739 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.48%, with operating income of 1.385 billion yuan, up 19.64% [21] - Zhongke Titanium White's net profit decreased by 14.83% to 259 million yuan, with revenue growth of 19.66% to 3.77 billion yuan [23] - Huasheng Tiancai turned a profit with a net profit of 14 million yuan, compared to a loss in the previous year, despite a revenue decline of 10.75% to 226 million yuan [25] Group 7 - Shen Zhou Cell reported a net loss of 33.7711 million yuan, with revenue down 25.50% to 972 million yuan [26] - Meihu Co. achieved a net profit of 101 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.26%, with operating income of 1.075 billion yuan, up 10.74% [28] - Jifeng Technology plans to apply for a comprehensive credit of 170 million yuan to supplement working capital [29] Group 8 - Foton Motor reported a net profit of 777 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 87.57%, with operating income of 30.371 billion yuan, up 26.71% [41] - BOE Technology achieved a net profit of 3.247 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.15%, with operating income of 110.278 billion yuan, up 8.45% [42] - CIMC reported a net profit of 1.278 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.63%, with operating income of 76.09 billion yuan, down 3.82% [43]
信用债周报:收益率上行,成交金额环比增长-20250729
BOHAI SECURITIES· 2025-07-29 07:29
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - During the period from July 21st to July 27th, most of the issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors (NAFMII) declined, with an overall change range of -5 BP to 2 BP. The issuance scale of credit bonds increased month - on - month, and the issuance amount of each variety increased. The net financing of credit bonds increased month - on - month. The yield of credit bonds all increased, and the credit spreads of medium - and short - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds mostly widened, but the 7 - year varieties still mainly narrowed. [1][58] - From an absolute return perspective, after adjustment, the yields of most varieties have retraced to the level of 2 months ago, but the conditions for a trend reversal of credit bonds are still insufficient. Supply shortage and relatively strong allocation demand will still support credit bonds, and the marginal loosening of the capital side will also help promote the repair market. The possibility of a decline in yields in the future is still high, and the idea of increasing allocation on adjustments is still feasible. [1][58] - From a relative return perspective, given that rating spreads are generally at historical lows, credit sinking is not effective at present. In the short term, high - grade varieties have greater potential for a catch - up rise. In the real estate bond market, as the market stabilizes, risk - preference funds can consider early layout. Urban investment bonds can still be a key allocation variety for credit bonds. [1][60][58] Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market Situation 1.1 Issuance and Maturity Scale - From July 21st to July 27th, a total of 371 credit bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 352.639 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 25.49%. The net financing of credit bonds was 57.525 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 12.623 billion yuan. [12] - By variety, the issuance amount of enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, medium - term notes, short - term financing bills, and private placement notes all increased month - on - month. The net financing of medium - term notes and short - term financing bills increased, while that of enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, and private placement notes decreased. [12] 1.2 Issuance Interest Rates - Most of the issuance guidance rates announced by NAFMII declined, with an overall change range of -5 BP to 2 BP. By term, the 1 - year variety had an interest rate change range of -5 BP to 0 BP, the 3 - year variety -3 BP to 1 BP, the 5 - year variety -3 BP to 2 BP, and the 7 - year variety -1 BP to 1 BP. By grade, the interest rate change range of key AAA - grade and AAA - grade varieties was -5 BP to 0 BP, AA + - grade -1 BP to 2 BP, AA - grade 0 BP to 2 BP, and AA - - grade -3 BP to -1 BP. [14] 2. Secondary Market Situation 2.1 Market Trading Volume - From July 21st to July 27th, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 897.286 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 3.78%. The trading volume of each variety increased. [17] 2.2 Credit Spreads - For medium - and short - term notes, the credit spreads of each variety were differentiated. The 1 - year credit spread widened, the 3 - year AA - grade and above varieties' credit spreads widened, the 5 - year AAA - grade and AA + - grade credit spreads widened, and the rest of the 5 - year varieties' spreads narrowed, while the 7 - year credit spread narrowed. [20] - For enterprise bonds, most varieties' credit spreads widened. The 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year credit spreads widened, and the 7 - year credit spread narrowed. [27] - For urban investment bonds, most varieties' credit spreads widened. The 1 - year and 3 - year credit spreads widened; among the 5 - year varieties, the AAA - grade and AA + - grade credit spreads widened, and the rest narrowed; among the 7 - year varieties, the AA - - grade spread widened, and the rest narrowed. [34] 2.3 Term Spreads and Rating Spreads - In terms of term spreads, the 3Y - 1Y spread of AA + medium - and short - term notes widened by 1.79 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 0.83 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread narrowed by 6.64 BP. In terms of rating spreads, the 3 - year medium - and short - term notes' (AA - )-(AAA) spread narrowed by 3.00 BP, (AA)-(AAA) spread widened by 1.00 BP, and (AA + )-(AAA) spread widened by 1.00 BP. [43] - Similar analyses were also conducted for enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds in terms of term spreads and rating spreads, with different changes in spreads and their positions in historical quantiles. [48][52] 3. Credit Rating Adjustment and Default Bond Statistics 3.1 Credit Rating Adjustment Statistics - From July 21st to July 27th, a total of 3 companies' ratings (including outlooks) were adjusted, with 1 downgraded and 2 upgraded. [55] 3.2 Default and Extension Bond Statistics - There were no credit bond defaults during the period from July 21st to July 27th. The corporate bonds of Shenzhen Longfor Holdings Co., Ltd. and Aoyuan Group Co., Ltd. were extended, with a total bond balance of 10.892 billion yuan at the time of extension. [57] 4. Investment Views - The issuance guidance rates mostly declined, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased, and the net financing increased. The yield of credit bonds rose, and the credit spreads mostly widened. [1][58] - For real estate bonds, as the market stabilizes, risk - preference funds can consider early layout, focusing on central and state - owned enterprises with stable historical valuations and excellent performance, as well as high - quality private enterprise bonds with strong guarantees. [60] - Urban investment bonds can still be a key allocation variety for credit bonds, with low short - term credit risk, and the current strategy can be positive. [60]
信用债周报:成交金额继续下降,信用利差整体收窄-20250722
BOHAI SECURITIES· 2025-07-22 12:04
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From July 14th to July 20th, the issuance guiding rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors showed divergence, with high - grade rates rising overall and medium - low - grade rates falling overall, with a change range of - 5 BP to 3 BP. The issuance scale of credit bonds decreased slightly month - on - month, and the net financing amount also decreased. In the secondary market, the trading volume of credit bonds continued to decline, and the yields of credit bonds decreased overall. The credit spreads of medium - short - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds narrowed overall. [1][62] - From a long - term perspective, the yields of credit bonds are still in a downward channel. Due to the current high price, the risk of chasing high is relatively large. When allocating, investors can wait for opportunities and increase positions during adjustments. They should focus on the change trend of interest - rate bonds and the coupon value of individual bonds. At present, the effect of credit sinking is not good, and there is a demand to increase the duration to increase returns. High - grade 5 - year varieties can be considered first. [1][62] - The central and local governments have continuously optimized real - estate policies, which have played a positive role in promoting the real - estate market to stop falling and stabilize. For real - estate bonds, investors with high risk preferences can consider early layout, focusing on central and state - owned enterprises with stable historical valuations and high - quality private - enterprise bonds with strong guarantees. For urban investment bonds, the possibility of default is very low, and they can still be a key allocation variety of credit bonds. [2][66][68] Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market Situation 1.1 Issuance and Maturity Scale - From July 14th to July 20th, a total of 343 credit bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 281.016 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%. The net financing amount was 44.902 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 38.421 billion yuan. [12] - In terms of different varieties, the issuance amounts of corporate bonds and private placement notes decreased, while those of enterprise bonds, medium - term notes, and short - term financing bills increased. The net financing amounts of enterprise bonds and private placement notes increased, while those of corporate bonds, medium - term notes, and short - term financing bills decreased. The net financing amounts of enterprise bonds, private placement notes, and short - term financing bills were negative, while those of corporate bonds and medium - term notes were positive. [13] 1.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The issuance guiding rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors showed divergence. High - grade rates rose overall, and medium - low - grade rates fell overall, with a change range of - 5 BP to 3 BP. By term, the 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year varieties had different interest - rate change ranges. By grade, different grades also had different interest - rate change ranges. [14] 2. Secondary Market Situation 2.1 Market Trading Volume - From July 14th to July 20th, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 864.586 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 5.24%. The trading volumes of all varieties decreased. [19] 2.2 Credit Spreads - For medium - short - term notes, all varieties' credit spreads narrowed. For enterprise bonds, all varieties' credit spreads narrowed. For urban investment bonds, most varieties' credit spreads narrowed, but there were some exceptions in specific grades and terms. [22][33][37] 2.3 Term Spreads and Rating Spreads - For AA + medium - short - term notes, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed by 0.35 BP, the 5Y - 3Y term spread narrowed by 0.44 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y term spread widened by 2.17 BP. For 3 - year medium - short - term notes, the (AA - )-(AAA) rating spread narrowed by 1.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) rating spread widened by 1.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) rating spread remained unchanged. [46] - For AA + enterprise bonds, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed by 1.19 BP, the 5Y - 3Y term spread widened by 0.78 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y term spread widened by 1.28 BP. For 3 - year enterprise bonds, the (AA - )-(AAA) rating spread widened by 1.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) rating spread widened by 1.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) rating spread remained unchanged. [52] - For AA + urban investment bonds, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed by 0.45 BP, the 5Y - 3Y term spread widened by 2.29 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y term spread widened by 1.24 BP. For 3 - year urban investment bonds, the (AA - )-(AAA) rating spread widened by 7.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) rating spread widened by 2.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) rating spread widened by 1.00 BP. [55] 3. Credit Rating Adjustment and Default Bond Statistics 3.1 Credit Rating Adjustment Statistics - From July 14th to July 20th, a total of 4 companies had their ratings (including outlooks) adjusted, with 1 downgraded and 3 upgraded. [59] 3.2 Default and Extended - Maturity Bond Statistics - From July 14th to July 20th, there were no credit - bond defaults or bond - maturity extensions. [61] 4. Investment Views - The investment views are basically the same as the core viewpoints, emphasizing the current situation of credit - bond issuance, trading, and spread changes, and providing investment suggestions from absolute and relative return perspectives. At the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of stable - growth policies, capital - market conditions, and supply - demand patterns on the bond market. [1][62] - For real - estate bonds, with the real - estate market showing signs of stabilization, investors with high risk preferences can consider early layout, focusing on high - quality bonds and properly speculating on the trading opportunities brought by the valuation repair of undervalued real - estate enterprise bonds. For urban investment bonds, they can still be a key allocation variety, and the short - term credit risk is controllable. [2][66][68]