由于制造业投资和基建投资增长持续放缓、房地产投资降幅持续扩大，上半年固定资产投资增速放缓。 其中，消费品制造业投资增长12.3%，装备制造业投资增长6.3%，原材料制造业投资下降0.1%。高技术 制造业投资中，航空、航天器及设备制造业投资增长26.3%，计算机及办公设备制造业投资增长 21.5%。 高技术服务业投资也实现较快增长。上半年，高技术服务业投资同比增长8.6%，增速比全部投资高5.8 个百分点，其中，信息服务业投资增长37.4%。 "两新"政策效果持续显现，上半年，设备工器具购置投资同比增长17.3%，增速比全部投资高14.5个百 分点，对全部投资增长的贡献率为86.0%。 随着统筹推进能源安全保障和绿色低碳转型，绿色能源投资大幅增长。上半年，电力、热力、燃气及水 生产和供应业投资同比增长22.8%，对全部投资增长的贡献率为55.6%，拉动全部投资增长1.5个百分 点。其中，太阳能发电、风力发电、核力发电、水力发电投资合计增长22.4%。 国家统计局副局长盛来运15日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，投资增速波动和小幅回落，既有现实因素， 也有深层次原因。现实因素主要是外部环境复杂多变、内部价格下行、企业竞 ...

Economic Growth - GDP growth rate for Q2 is 5.2%, slightly down from 5.4% in Q1, with a cumulative growth rate of 5.3% for the first half of the year[4] - Nominal GDP growth rate for Q2 is 3.9%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.1%[28] - Contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth is 52.3%, up from Q1[30] Price and Volume Imbalance - Contribution rate of volume to nominal GDP growth is 132%, while price contribution is -30.6%, indicating a high level of imbalance[4] - Historical data shows that the current volume contribution rate of 132.1% is the highest among the last seven peaks[14] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment growth rate in June is -0.1%, down from 2.7% in May, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments declining[7] - Consumer spending growth in Q2 is 5.2%, slightly above income growth of 5.1%[32] Employment and Income - Total rural migrant workers is 19.139 million, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7%[6] - Average monthly income for migrant workers in Q2 is up 3.0%, down from 3.3% in Q1[40] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment growth rate in June is -12.9%, with sales area down 5.5% year-on-year[54] - New housing prices in 70 major cities decreased by 4.1% year-on-year, an improvement from a 5.2% decline previously[28]

宏观 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 07 月 14 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 政策预期抬升带动风险偏好上扬 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报（7 月第 2 周） [Table_S 核心观点： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 5) 风险提示：基本面超预期弱化、贸易谈判不及预期。 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 数据来源：万得资讯 1) 权益：上周市场放量上涨。关税方面，美国宣布将关税暂缓 期延长至 8 月 1 日，短期不确定性减弱，降低关税突然大幅上 调的风险，带动亚太股市情绪回暖。基本面方面，CPI 小幅 好于预期，核心的支撑点在于，食品价格降幅小于季节性、油 价、金价上涨带动、促消费政策刺激下国内需求持续释放带动。 PPI 显著低于预期，主要的拖累在于，中下游制造行业受到关 税不确定性、618 促销、部分行业产能利用率偏低等影响，价 ...

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June increased by 0.1% year-on-year, ending a four-month decline, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, indicating a mixed price trend in the economy [3][4][16] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month and reaching a 14-month high, reflecting improvements in supply-demand structures in certain industries [3][17] - The persistent low prices in the market are attributed to an oversupply situation, which could lead to a negative cycle affecting corporate expectations and investment, potentially dragging the economy into a "low inflation trap" [5][18] Group 2 - The decline in PPI is primarily driven by seasonal factors and the construction progress of infrastructure projects, along with an oversupply of raw materials like steel and cement, which has negatively impacted production material prices [4][17] - Key factors contributing to the current supply-demand imbalance include a decline in real estate investment, high tariff barriers affecting exports, and weak consumer income expectations leading to insufficient consumption willingness [4][18] - The overall economic recovery is influenced by a combination of supportive incremental policies and complex external environments, with expectations for CPI to show a trend of low-to-high throughout the year [8][10]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】6 月通胀数据点评 从实际库存角度观察 PPI 事 项 6 月，CPI 同比上涨 0.1%，预期持平，前值下降 0.1%；核心 CPI 同比上涨 0.7%， 前值上涨 0.6%。PPI 同比下降 3.6%，预期下降 3.2%，前值下降 3.3%。 主要观点 6 月物价数据简评：四个要点 1、预计二季度 GDP 平减指数同比约-0.9%，一季度为-0.8%。二季度 CPI 同 比-0.03%，较一季度的-0.1%略有好转；不过，PPI 同比-3.2%，较一季度的-2.3% 有所回落，商品房售价同比也较一季度有所下行。预计二季度名义 GDP 增速 约 4.4%，一季度为 4.6%。 2、本月 PPI 低于预期，也弱于 PMI 价格和高频价格的指引，可能有两个因 素：第一，高频的原材料价格向 PPI 相关行业的传导需要时间，并且若在需求 偏弱背景下，企业的实际交易价格可能低于市场报价。第二，PMI 价格中并未 包含采矿和公用事业，而"绿电增加"导致本月电热供应 PPI 环比跌 0.9%。 3、CPI 环比-0.1%，重点关注：1）毕业季租房需求有所增加，房租上涨 0.1 ...

PPI环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同。董莉娟表示，影响PPI环比下降的主要原因，一是国内部分原材料 制造业价格季节性下行，二是绿电增加带动能源价格下降，三是一些出口占比较高的行业价格承压。 受环比下降及对比基数变动影响，PPI同比降幅比上月扩大0.3个百分点，但随着各项宏观政策加力实 施，部分行业供需关系有所改善，价格呈企稳回升态势。全国统一大市场建设纵深推进，带动部分行业 价格同比降幅收窄。6月份，汽柴油车整车制造、新能源车整车制造价格环比分别上涨0.5%和0.3%，同 比降幅比上月分别收窄1.9个和0.4个百分点。提振消费相关政策加力扩围，带动部分生活资料价格同比 回升。此外，新动能积聚，带动部分高技术行业价格同比上涨。 （文章来源：人民日报） 记者从国家统计局获悉：今年6月份，扩内需、促消费政策持续显效，居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比 由上月下降转为上涨0.1%；扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比继续回升，上涨0.7%。工业生产者出厂 价格指数（PPI）环比下降0.4%，同比下降3.6%。 CPI同比上涨0.1%，为连续下降4个月后转涨。国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟分析，这主要受工 业消费品价格有 ...

Group 1: CPI Trends - In June, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year, ending a four-month decline [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 14-month high [1][3] - The improvement in CPI indicates a positive signal of demand recovery in the market [1][3] Group 2: Factors Influencing CPI - The rise in CPI was supported by a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices, with the year-on-year decline narrowing from 1.0% to 0.5% [2] - International commodity price fluctuations contributed to significant increases in gold and platinum jewelry prices, which rose by 39.2% and 15.9% respectively, impacting CPI positively [2] - The increase in international oil prices, influenced by geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand, also played a role in lifting domestic energy prices [2][5] Group 3: Core CPI and Consumer Goods - Core CPI has shown a continuous increase for four months, rising from -0.1% in February to 0.7% in June [3] - Prices of durable consumer goods, such as entertainment products and household textiles, increased by 2.0% year-on-year [3] - The decline in automobile prices has slowed, with fuel and new energy vehicles seeing the smallest price drops in nearly two and a half years [3] Group 4: Food Prices and Their Impact - Food prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in June, with the decline narrowing compared to the previous month [4] - Fresh fruit prices rose by 6.1%, contributing approximately 0.12 percentage points to the CPI increase [4] - The price of beef turned positive after 28 months of decline, while pork prices fell by 8.5%, marking a shift after previous increases [4] Group 5: PPI Trends and Future Outlook - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure in the industrial sector [4][5] - Factors such as high temperatures and increased rainfall have affected construction progress, contributing to a decline in raw material prices [5] - Analysts expect that with continued macroeconomic policy support, domestic prices may gradually recover, leading to a mild rebound in CPI and a narrowing of PPI declines [6]

Group 1: CPI Marginal Improvement - In June, the CPI showed a marginal improvement with a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, reversing a three-month trend of -0.1%, primarily driven by rising domestic fuel prices and a rebound in durable goods prices [2] - Food prices performed better than seasonal averages, with fresh vegetable prices increasing by 0.7% month-on-month, compared to a historical average decline of -3.9% [2] - Energy prices saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in June, recovering from a previous decline of -1.7%, influenced by rising international oil prices due to geopolitical tensions [2][3] Group 2: PPI Continued Pressure - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month in June, marking the seventh consecutive month of negative growth, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, the largest drop since August 2023 [4] - The decline in production material prices was a significant factor, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%, compared to a historical average of -0.1% [4] - Life goods prices remained sluggish, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, reflecting weak seasonal performance [4] Group 3: Future Price Outlook - CPI is expected to show a mild recovery, with an annual increase projected around 0%, higher than the first half's average of -0.1% [5] - Core CPI is anticipated to rise by approximately 0.6% for the year, supported by policies aimed at improving supply-demand structures [6] - PPI is expected to remain under pressure, with an annual decline projected at around -2.3%, an improvement from the first half's -2.8% [6] Group 4: International and Domestic Commodity Trends - Internationally, commodity prices are expected to show increased divergence and reduced volatility, with oil prices likely to continue declining due to OPEC+ production increases and weakening global demand [7] - Domestically, weak internal demand persists, particularly in real estate and infrastructure investments, which are not expected to drive resource prices upward [7] - The manufacturing sector is facing challenges with low capacity utilization, indicating a phase of oversupply in certain industries [7]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 强在中游——6 月 PMI 数据点评 PMI 数据：制造业 PMI有所回升 6 月制造业 PMI 为 49.7%，前值为 49.5%。具体分项来看：1）PMI 生产指数 为 51.0%，前值为 50.7%，回升 0.3 个百分点。2）PMI 新订单指数为 50.2%， 前值为 49.8%。PMI 新出口订单指数为 47.7%，前值为 47.5%。3）PMI 从业 人员指数为 47.9%，前值为 48.1%。4）供货商配送时间指数为 50.2%，前值为 50.0%。5）PMI 原材料库存指数为 48.0%，前值为 47.4%。 其他值得关注的分项：1）库存：采购回升，库存指数回升。6月，采购指数为 50.2%，前值为 47.6%。2）外贸：进出口指数均有所回升。新出口订单指数和 进口指数分别为 47.7%和 47.8%，比上月上升 0.2 和 0.7 个百分点。3）价格： 价格指数回升，但依然低于荣枯线。6 月，PMI出厂价格指数为 46.2%，前值 为 44.7%。4）预期：建筑业预期有所回升。6月，制造业生产经营活动预期指 数为 52.0%，前值为 52.5% ...

也要看到，目前仍面临着一些亟待解决的问题，比如不同地区和领域间"两新"工作不够平衡，补贴申领 的便捷程度和效率等尚有提升空间，项目执行中依然存在"先涨价后打折"、骗补套补等违法违规行为， 等等。对此，要综合施策尽快予以化解，避免影响政策效果。 完善组织协调机制。各级政府及相关部门要按照职责分工，进一步强化责任意识，压实主体责任，确 保"两新"工作顺利高效推进。其中，国家发展改革委、财政部要加强统筹协调和跟踪调度，商务部、交 通运输部、农业农村部等部门要按照职责分工组织地方认真落实好各自分管领域的相关政策，地方各级 政府要履行好主体责任，强化协调推进，持续放大政策效应。健全和完善"两新"部际协调机制，定期或 不定期围绕"两新"事宜进行磋商、决策等，不断强化统筹推进和跟踪调度，并根据形势需要适时推出更 多支持政策。 今年以来，按照中央经济工作会议部署，我国加力扩围实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策，继 续有力支撑扩消费、稳投资、促转型、惠民生，政策效应不断显现。 一方面，激发消费活力效果显著。一季度，在汽车、家电、手机、电动自行车、家装等消费品以旧换新 政策带动下，全国限额以上单位通信器材类、家用电器和音像器 ...