| (Current) | 0.6% | 3.4% | 13.6% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | * Data as of 5 9月 2025 02:29:55 CT | | | | 另外，美联储10月维持利率不变的概率仅为0.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为44.5%，累计降息50个基点的概率为55.3%。 来源：市场资讯 （来源：F金融） 美联储9月18日议息会议进入倒计时，从最新预测结果看，9月降息几乎已成共识。今晚8点半，美国劳工统计局将公布8月非农就业报告，这或是"敲定"降 息的关键数据，全球市场正屏息等待结果。 降息预期"拉满" 美联储9月降息概率达99.4% 9月5日，CME美联储观察最新数据显示，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率仅余0.6%，而降息25个基点的概率高达99.4%，逼近100%，市场对9月的降息预 期已基本"拉满"。 上月，美国劳工统计局发布的疲软的就业数据促使特朗普解雇了劳工统计局局长。目前，特朗普已提名保守派经济学家E.J.安东尼担任劳工统计局新任局 长。这一决定引发了外界对政府过度干预的担忧。 马来亚银行则认为，尽管法国、英国和日本面临各自不确定性 ...

中国基金报记者 张舟 美联储 9 月 18 日议息会议进入倒计时，从最新预测结果看， 9 月降息几乎已成共识。今晚 8 点半 ，美国劳工统计局将公布 8 月非农就业报告，这或是 " 敲定 " 降息的关键数据，全 球市场正屏息等待结果。 【导读】美联储 9 月降息概率逼近 100%，8 月非农将于今晚 8 点半 公布 降息预期 " 拉满 " 美联储 9 月降息概率达 99.4% 9 月 5 日， CME 美联储观察最新数据显示，美联储 9 月维持利率不变的概率仅余 0.6% ， 而降息 25 个基点的概率高达 99.4% ，逼近 100% ，市场对 9 月的降息预期已基本 " 拉满 " 。 80% 70% 60% Probability 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0.6% 0% 400-425 425-450 Target Rate (in bps) | TARGET RATE (BPS) | PROBABILITY(%) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | NOW | 1 DAY | 1 WEEK | 1 MONTH | | | | 3 9月 ...

尽管国际金价今年以来的累计涨幅已达36%，但华尔街依旧看涨金价。 近日，花旗银行将未来三个月金价预期从每盎司3300美元上调至3500美元，预计交易区间也从 3100~3500美元上调至3300~3600美元。 高盛基于全球央行购金、经济衰退风险及美元信用动摇三大驱动因素，维持2025年年底金价3700美元/ 盎司的目标。 瑞银更是重申了此前的预测，到2026年6月金价将升至每盎司3700美元的预测，并进一步提到 "在地缘 政治或经济状况恶化的风险情况下，不排除金价升至4000美元的可能性"。 南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹对记者分析称，黄金价格开启新一轮上涨行情，这次是受益 于美联储独立性受损、美元信誉继续下滑，此外美联储降息预期增强等因素共同作用下，市场避险情绪 重燃。 来源：@究竟视频微博 【#华尔街齐刷刷看涨金价#，#20只黄金ETF年内吸金592亿元#】COMEX黄金期货连续三个交易日刷新 历史高位，最高触及每盎司3640.1美元，海外机构甚至看高到4000美元/盎司，黄金价格进入了新一轮 上涨周期。 今年以来，国际金价累计涨幅已扩大至36%，黄金ETF收益水涨船高。 第一财经据Wind统计 ...

【债券深度报告】 机构行为的季节性及时点观察 ——日历看债系列之三 （2）规模驱动下配债的季节性特征：规模增长大月以及年末"抢跑"时点， 配债力度相应增强，主要是 4-5 月、7-8 月以及 10-11 月；季末月以及春节前 等规模下降月份配债规模缩量。 （3）配债大月关注理财偏好品种的机会：二季度初、三季度初理财进场对应 品种表现较好，且宜早不宜迟，关注 1y 存单、1y 中短票和 3y 中短票；10 月， 前期频繁的赎回潮后部分安全性资产具备性价比，1y 中短票表现较好；11 月， 理财通过委外拉久期参与"抢跑"行情，3y 中短票和长端利率表现更好。 ❖ 二、商业银行：负债和内外部监管考核约束下，债券投资存在季节性规律。 （1）负债端季节性规律：一季度迎来"开门红"，存款季初回落、季末增长。 （2）大行配债：存贷差较高、供给增加窗口，大行配债相应放量；长债供给 放量后的季末窗口，关注"买短卖长"行为下国债曲线做陡机会及警惕长端品 种额外调整压力；债市持续调整的季末窗口，大行倾向卖出老券兑现浮盈来改 善利润表，关注政金债、国债的新老券利差季末走阔、跨季后修复的规律。 （3）农商行配债："开门红"资金涌入支撑 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that different regional stock markets do not move in unison, and understanding multiple markets can provide investors with more opportunities [2] - Global investment can significantly reduce volatility risk, and the article suggests a free course on investing in global stock markets through index funds [2][3] - The article highlights that the decline in interest rates will benefit risk assets like stocks, particularly in non-US markets, as the dollar depreciates against other currencies [5][6] Group 2 - Following the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in September 2024, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a rapid increase, demonstrating the short-term impact of interest rates on markets [5] - The article predicts that the dollar interest rates will continue to decrease, potentially returning to historical averages of 2%-3%, which would be favorable for RMB assets [7] - The article advises against market predictions, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips and selling on rallies while patiently waiting during other times [8]

Group 1 - The rapid development of the green finance market has led to an increase in relevant information and data, with a focus on the latest trends and dynamics in the field [1] - The People's Bank of China and other regulatory bodies issued a notice to support the high-quality development of forestry through 15 specific measures, including financial services for collective forest rights and innovative loan products [2] - The first meeting of the China-UK Transition Finance Working Group was held, aiming to promote the implementation of transition finance standards and cross-border project cooperation [3] Group 2 - Xiamen proposed a draft green finance development regulation to provide legal support for green economic transformation, integrating various financial policies and emphasizing the development of blue finance products [4] - Yantai released an action plan to explore blue finance practices, targeting a loan balance of 120 billion yuan for blue industries by 2027 [6] - The national carbon market reported a weekly carbon price peak of 70.69 yuan per ton, with total trading volume reaching over 6 million tons [7][8][9] Group 3 - The Bank of China assisted Guangdong in issuing 2.5 billion yuan of offshore "blue + green bonds," indicating strong investor interest with an order peak of 11.8 billion yuan [10] - The launch of the "Rongtong CSI ESG ETF Linked Fund" achieved a record initial scale of 960 million yuan, reflecting growing market interest in green investment [11] - Suzhou Industrial Park established a 500 million yuan ESG green unicorn industry fund, focusing on high-growth sectors and promoting sustainable financial practices [12]

Group 1 - The rapid development of the green finance market has led to an increase in relevant information and data, with a focus on the latest trends and dynamics in the field [1] - The People's Bank of China and other regulatory bodies issued a notice to support the high-quality development of forestry, proposing 15 specific measures to enhance financial services and support for the forestry industry [2] - The first meeting of the China-UK Transition Finance Working Group was held, aiming to promote the implementation of transition finance standards and cross-border project cooperation [3] Group 2 - Xiamen proposed a draft green finance development regulation to provide legal support for green economic transformation, integrating various financial policies and emphasizing cooperation in green finance services [4] - Yantai released an action plan to explore blue finance practices, aiming for a loan balance of over 120 billion yuan for blue industries by 2027 [6] - The national carbon market reported a weekly carbon price peak of 70.69 yuan per ton, with total trading volume reaching over 6 million tons [7][8] Group 3 - The Bank of China assisted Guangdong in issuing 2.5 billion yuan of offshore "blue + green bonds," indicating strong investor interest with an order peak of 11.8 billion yuan [9][10] - The launch of the Rongtong CSI ESG ETF linked fund achieved a record initial scale of 960 million yuan, reflecting growing market interest in green investment [11] - Suzhou Industrial Park established a 500 million yuan ESG green unicorn industry fund, focusing on high-growth sectors and promoting sustainable financial practices [12]

牛市接力棒，居民存款何时入市？20250831 摘要 机构资金是当前股市上涨的主要推动力，包括保险资金提升权益资产配 置、类平准基金入市以及私募基金提高仓位。未来股市上涨需关注居民 储蓄向股市转移的现象，目前这一趋势正在逐渐启动。 截至今年上半年，居民存款搬家进入股市的现象尚不明显，但 7 月份非 银存款增速显著上升，而居民存款增速略有下降，初步显示出居民存款 开始边际转移入市的迹象。 监管政策通过降低权益资产风险占用、强调中长期考核、优化投资方式 等措施，畅通保险资金入市通道，显著提升了保险公司对股票的配置空 间。今年一季度，财险和寿险的股票投资金额同比分别增长约 33%和 45%。 今年上半年私募基金规模恢复正增长，7 月份规模大幅增加，主要来自 居民存款通过私募认购入市。同时，百亿私募仓位显著提升，并倾向于 投资小票，与中证 1,000 指数走势有强相关性。 公募基金在权益市场的规模增长主要源自被动指数型 ETF，类平准基金 通过 ETF 增持 A 股贡献了显著规模增长。与美国相比，中国 ETF 市场仍 有较大发展空间。 Q&A 本轮牛市的核心资金驱动因素是什么？ 本轮牛市的核心资金驱动因素主要源自于估 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a reverse repurchase operation of 782.9 billion yuan for 7 days at a fixed rate of 1.40% on August 29, with the same amount being the bid and awarded [1] - On the same day, 361.2 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 421.7 billion yuan [1] - For the week of September 1 to 5, a total of 2,273.1 billion yuan in reverse repos will mature, with specific amounts maturing each day [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The central bank's net injection has improved the overall funding conditions in the interbank market, with the weighted rate of DR001 rising over 1 basis point to around 1.33% and DR007 declining over 2 basis points [2] - Overnight quotes in the anonymous click (Xrepo) system remain around 1.30% with nearly 100 billion yuan in supply [2] - The latest overnight financing rate in the US is reported at 4.36% [2] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.67%, remaining stable compared to the previous day [7] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market have seen a decline in yields [9] - The closing prices for government bond futures mostly increased, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.01% and the 5-year and 2-year contracts both increasing by 0.04% [13] Group 5: Key News and Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to accelerate the construction of a unified national market and address issues such as market access barriers and local investment behaviors [14] - Fitch Ratings downgraded Vanke's long-term issuer default rating from "CCC+" to "CCC-" [14] - South Korea's debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise from 48.1% to 51.6%, with plans to issue a record 232 trillion won (approximately 167.2 billion USD) in bonds by 2026 [16]

2025.08. 29 本文字数：968，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 后歆桐 近日，中国A股市场迎来历史性时刻。市场总市值首次突破100万亿元大关，创下历史新高。 基于流动性改善、估值吸引力等因素，包括高盛、汇丰在内的多家外资投行看好中国股市继续上涨趋 势，调高中国股市目标位。高盛策略师劳（Kinger Lau）给出的理由包括支持性估值指标、企业靠 近两位数百分比的利润增长趋势以及有利的市场定位等。 劳在研报中写道，"与周期性宏观基本面不同，流动性因素和估值扩张一直是全球股市上涨的主要推 动力，这点对中国也适用。" 沪深300指数本月已涨约10%，跻身全球表现最佳的主要股指之列。8月迄今，沪深股市日均交易额 为2.2万亿元人民币，有望创下历史新高。截至第一财经发稿时，沪深300指数今日继续小幅上涨至 4482.19点，较高盛的新目标位仍有上涨空间。 本月稍早，汇丰银行分析师团队也因中国国内的流动性充足上调了中国境内股指的目标。 摩根大通称，虽然看到投资拥挤的迹象，但认为全球政策宽松和中国流动性激增会提供强大的反向动 能。该行分析师巴特拉（Rajiv Batra）估计，到2026年底，沪深300指 ...