打造一枢纽四中心，分三个阶段推进，实施22个专项行动计划，到2035年，基本建成服务"双循 环"、引领东北亚的国际化中心城市……7月10日，备受期待的《沈阳市建设东北亚国际化中心城市行动 纲要（2025—2035年）》（以下简称《行动纲要》）一经公布，立即成为各界关注的焦点。 去年10月，国务院正式批复《沈阳市国土空间总体规划（2021—2035年）》，沈阳的城市性质 由"东北地区重要的中心城市"升级为"东北亚国际化中心城市"。这是国家赋予沈阳的新使命，也是沈阳 城市发展新的重大机遇。 《行动纲要》还特别强调了营商环境建设，通过建立健全要素市场化体系，建设信用政府、信用城 市，深化外商投资促进体制机制改革，深化"只提交一次材料"改革，加快打造一流营商环境，推动沈阳 开放动力、配置效力、科技实力、服务能力、城市魅力持续显著提升。 《行动纲要》之所以备受瞩目，是因为沈阳建设东北亚国际化中心城市将给区域发展和百姓生活带 来巨大变化。《行动纲要》提出22个专项行动计划，诸多重点领域发展任务、发展方向得以明晰。其中 包括，沈阳将加快推进"大国重器"研发落地，打造世界级产业集群；实施"人工智能+"行动，培育壮大 新产业新 ...

金融赋能激发消费新活力 编者按消费既是经济增长的引擎，也是人民美好生活的直接体现。当前，我国商品消费升级加速推进，服务消费需求持续迸发，新型消费业态蓬勃生长。 为强化金融对消费的支撑作用，中国人民银行等六部门近日联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》，通过一系列精准有力的金融"组合 拳"，为消费市场注入源头活水。本期深度报道聚焦这一重要政策，从多维视角解码金融赋能消费升级的路径，深入分析金融政策如何通过完善收入增长 机制、创新财富管理工具、健全社会保障体系等长效举措，从根本上增强居民消费能力与信心，推动实现从"能消费"到"敢消费、愿消费"的转变。 ■中国经济时报记者 刘慧 平潭的"蓝眼泪"奇观，宛如繁星洒落于海面，无数游客向往，也吸引了民宿在岚岛扎根，但扩大经营往往面临融资难题。中国银行福建自贸试验区平潭片 区分行的"民宿贷"播洒及时雨，投放近亿元，为144家民宿排忧解难。海浪拍岸的声音里，金融"活水"奏响消费"交响曲"。 近日，央行等六部门印发的《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》（以下简称《意见》）提出，加大对符合条件的消费行业经营主体首贷、续贷、 信用贷、中长期贷款支持力度。 接受中国经济 ...

宏 观 研 究 "反内卷"系列 国 内 经 济 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 屠强 A0230521070002 tuqiang@swsresearch.com 研究支持 耿佩璇 A0230124080003 gengpx@swsresearch.com 联系人 屠强 (8621)23297818× tuqiang@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 同时居民就业存在内生性的"自平衡"机制，也会使就业人员自发向生活性服务业流入。过往就业 向金融业、信息技术服务、制造业等高工资行业集中，但 2021 年后，高工资不再是影响就业流动 的关键。就业更多向工作时长较短的生活服务业流入，这些行业的时薪"被动"提高；如 2021-2023 年，卫生业周工作时长减少 1.5 小时，时薪增加 9.3 元/小时；对应就业占比较 2021 年上行 0.2pct。 2025 年 07 月 07 日 居民如何"反内卷"？ ——"反内卷"系列专题之二 ⚫ 一问：哪些群体在"内卷"？工作时间拉长挤占消费时间，制造业、生产性服务业 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 一问：哪些群体在"内卷"？工作时间拉长挤占消费时间，制造业、生产性服务业、年轻人最明显。 近年来，居民"内卷"倾向凸显，表现为工作时间拉长令消费时间"腰斩"，同时导致服务消费偏弱。 2009- 2018年，中国居民周均工作时间稳定；但2018年来，主要经济体中，中国是为数不多出现劳动时间明显 上升的国家，2023平均每天工作时间较2018年多21分钟。相对应地，居民购买商品和服务的时间同期由 80分钟/日下降至43分钟/日，对服务消费时间的挤压更为明显。 具体行业看，制造业和生产性服务业的"内卷"现象最明显，而地产基建、生活性服务业工作时间有所减 少。 2021年后生活性服务业工作时间跳升3.7个小时；其中信息技术业工作时间涨幅显著(9.5小时)。制造 业的工作时间亦有上行，2018-2023年增加0.7小时。上述行业虽然绝对工资高，但工资增速回落，拖累居 民消费能力。而地产基建、生活性服务业工作时间分别回落1.7、0.5个小时。 从就业主体看，"内卷"倾向最突出的是年轻人，过去5年周工作时间平均增加超4个小时。 25-34岁 ...

值得关注的是，"购书 + 体验"的新模式也在泗阳悄然兴起。部分书店设置咖啡休闲区、手工创作角，推 出"购书赠书签DIY""阅读积分换文创"等活动，吸引更多年轻人走进书店。"在这里既能购书、看书，又 能和朋友交流读书心得，还能亲手制作书签，很有意思。"高中生小吴展示着刚做好的手绘书签。这种 集阅读、社交、体验于一体的消费场景，让购书、看书不再是单纯的交易行为，而是转变为一种沉浸式 的文化体验。 除了传统书店，图书馆也迎来了借阅高峰。泗阳县图书馆内，空调送出阵阵清凉，书桌前坐满认真阅读 的学生。馆内专门开辟"暑期少儿阅读专区"，陈列童话绘本、历史故事等千余册图书，并举办"暑期读 书会""小小领读员"等活动。"每天早上开馆前就有孩子在门口排队，周末更是一座难求。"一位图书馆 管理员介绍。 同时，绘画、书法、钢琴等兴趣培训机构也迎来了报名高峰。"趁着暑假，给孩子报了绘画和书法班， 既能培养兴趣爱好，又能让孩子度过一个充实的假期。"家长李女士分享道。 （速新闻记者 史少佳） 随着七月盛夏的到来，泗阳迎来暑期消费旺季，城市商圈活力满满，到处都是 热闹的消费景象。从香飘四溢的夜市美食，到充满活力的文体场馆，暑期经济正为泗阳 ...

本次活动由山东省商务厅和烟台市人民政府共同主办，作为山东省连续第三年落地烟台的夏日消费盛 事，本届消费季以"'参'入烟台、拥'鲍'大海"城市消费IP为核心，突出创新场景与科技赋能，集中展示 烟台市赛事消费、演唱会消费、夜间消费、旅游消费等多元化消费产业链，通过商旅文体、线上线下相 结合等方式推出系列促消费活动，有力激活夏日消费新动能、释放经济增长新活力。 7月1日晚，"购在中国·2025山东活力之夏消费季"在烟台启动。 启动仪式上，2025架无人机以梦幻光影秀点亮港城夜空，生动勾勒出山东特色消费符号，拉开消费季帷 幕。 作为主场核心活动，烟台黄渤海新区地标"时光塔"及周边区域打造的"五色山海消费展"成为焦点：消费 展分为烟火国潮（金色区）、逐海狂想（蓝色区）、绿核未来（绿色区）、微醺生活（紫色区）、畅享 焕新（青色区）五个部分，分别承载不同主题的消费场景。活动现场，非遗美食与科技智造交融碰撞， 动感电音派对、趣味亲子体验等互动活动轮番上演，构建起全域沉浸式消费新体验。 特色IP 彰显烟台消费魅力 摄影 李刚 本土元素闪耀 沉浸式消费场景精彩纷呈 消费季期间，全球葡萄酒旅游目的地IP魅力闪耀。烟台2025葡萄酒 ...

Group 1 - In June, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in the manufacturing sector [1][2] - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.5%, also up by 0.2 percentage points, reflecting stable expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [1][2] - The Composite PMI Output Index increased to 50.7%, marking a rise of 0.3 percentage points, suggesting overall economic improvement [1][2] Group 2 - The PMI for large enterprises was 51.2%, up by 0.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a PMI of 48.6%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points; however, small enterprises experienced a decline to 47.3%, down by 2 percentage points [3] - Various sub-indices showed positive changes, with production, new orders, and export orders indices rising between 0.2 to 2.6 percentage points, indicating a general recovery across different industries [4] - The logistics and procurement analyst noted that the slight PMI increase reflects the effectiveness of recent policies aimed at boosting demand, although the overall PMI remains below the growth threshold [4][5] Group 3 - The Non-Manufacturing PMI has consistently remained above 50% this year, with a new orders index of 46.6%, which has increased by 0.5 percentage points, indicating a narrowing decline in demand [6][8] - In the construction sector, the Business Activity Index rose to over 52%, reflecting increased investment-related activities, supported by expanded special bond allocations [7] - The financial services sector also showed growth, with both the Business Activity Index and new orders index exceeding 60%, indicating heightened activity as the quarter ends [7] Group 4 - Overall, the average Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index for the second quarter was 50.4%, similar to the first quarter, suggesting stable expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [8] - As policy benefits gradually materialize, investment and consumption-related demand are expected to continue to improve, enhancing the internal driving force of economic operations [8]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and five other departments have jointly issued guidelines to enhance financial support for consumption, aiming to stimulate high-quality consumption and unlock consumer potential through 19 key measures across six areas [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Support for Consumption - The guidelines emphasize financial support for key areas of consumption, including goods, services, and new types of consumption [2]. - For goods consumption, the focus is on innovating and optimizing consumer credit products to meet diverse consumer needs and enhancing financial support for foreign trade enterprises [2]. - In service consumption, the guidelines propose increased financing support for sectors like retail, hospitality, and elder care, while also promoting innovative financing models in cultural, sports, and educational services [2]. Group 2: Enhancing Financial Supply - The guidelines call for improved professional service capabilities among financial institutions, encouraging them to issue loans to key service sectors to enhance service quality [3]. - A specific loan quota of 500 billion yuan is set for service consumption and elderly care, allowing major financial institutions to apply for refinancing based on the principal of loans issued [3]. - The guidelines also highlight the importance of increasing residents' income levels as a key support for boosting consumption [3]. Group 3: Optimizing Consumption Environment - The guidelines propose that financial institutions focus on enhancing payment convenience across key consumption scenarios, improving compatibility among various payment methods [4]. - There is an emphasis on improving payment services for elderly individuals and foreign visitors, as well as promoting the trial implementation of digital currency in consumption [4].

摘要 一问：需求的增量"蓝海"？当前服务业投资有3.3万亿空间，长期消费服务化趋势或再拉动投资。 相较历史趋势，服务业实际投资与潜在投资间存在3.3万亿缺口。 2024年居民人均服务性消费较历史趋势 的缺口为2093元，以全国14亿人口记，全国服务消费潜在缺口接近3万亿，或对应1.8万亿投资缺口。另 外，过往服务业投资占GDP比重与增加值占比变化长期趋同，但2016年服务业增加值占比保持韧性下， 投资占比却呈现持续回落态势，与增加值相匹配的潜在投资缺口或为1.5万亿。 短期来看，制约服务消费修复的关键是消费时间"腰斩"；但居民自平衡机制及关税"正外部性"均有反内 卷效果。 居民"内卷"导致消费时间减少，而服务消费更依赖居民体验与具体场景，更易受到消费时间减 少的挤压。但目前我国"反内卷"政策已聚焦居民，包括鼓励"带薪休假"、"弹性工作制"等。居民反内 卷"自平衡"机制与关税战的"正外部性"也使内卷不会是长期趋势。 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 长期来看，人均GDP在1-3万美元时，消费呈现"服务化"趋势，服务消费占总消费比重年均上行约 0.6pct，且人口结构转变 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant investment opportunities in the service industry, highlighting a potential investment gap of approximately 3.3 trillion yuan due to the disparity between actual and potential service consumption [2][10]. Group 1: Demand Increment "Blue Ocean" - The current service industry investment has a potential gap of 3.3 trillion yuan, with a projected shortfall in per capita service consumption of 2,093 yuan in 2024, translating to nearly 30 trillion yuan nationwide [2][10]. - The decline in consumer time due to "involution" is a short-term constraint on service consumption recovery, but policies encouraging paid leave and flexible work arrangements are expected to mitigate this trend [2][3][33]. Group 2: International Experience in Demand-Driven Supply - Global experiences indicate that as consumer preferences shift from goods to services, a positive feedback loop is created, driving supply and investment growth [4][68]. - In Japan, service industry investment surged after entering an aging society, with service investment as a percentage of total investment rising to 11.6% when GDP reached 20,000 USD [4][90]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Specific Areas - The demand for household services, particularly in the domestic service sector, is on the rise, with significant investment potential in areas like housekeeping and elderly care [5][96]. - The service industry in China is currently more focused on corporate services, with a low proportion of value added from lifestyle services, indicating a need for greater attention to consumer demand [7][128]. - The effective supply of services in sectors like health and entertainment has been insufficient, leading to a significant gap between supply and demand [8][141]. Group 4: Future Investment Trends - The service industry is expected to see accelerated investment growth as private investment shifts from manufacturing to services, with notable increases in sectors like health and entertainment [8][158]. - The article suggests that the aging population will drive demand for "age-friendly" services, creating further investment opportunities in related sectors [6][113].