有色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 14 日） 一、研究观点 有色商品日报 有色商品日报 | 品 | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | | 隔夜伦铜冲高回落，国内宽幅震荡，国内精炼铜进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国 12 | 月 | | | CPI 同比增长 2.7%，持平预期和前值；核心 CPI 同比增长 2.6%，持平前值，略低于预 | | | | 期的 2.7%。美核心通胀水平较预期放缓，这也为后序美联储降息造势，但从 1 月降息 | | | | 概率来看维持不变的概率仍较大。国内方面，光伏电池等产品出口退税调整，或导致国 | | | | 内一季度存在抢出口动作。库存方面，LME 库存增加 4325 吨至 141550 吨；Comex | 库 | | 铜 | 存增加 8215 吨至 480356 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 5505 吨至 122127 吨，BC 铜增加 4882 | | | | 吨至 5935 吨。需求方面，铜价再度走高，下游企业采购转为谨慎，成交以刚需为主， | | | | 另外进口亏损扩大，出口窗口逐渐打开，或有利于一季度出口需求。贵金属乐观情 ...

这项目的看点不是"建铝厂"，是"中国矿企+中东资源"的新玩法：沙特电价仅0.03美元/度，是国内的1/5，电解铝成本能压到1800美元/吨以下（国内约2200美 元），成本优势直接甩同行一条街。 2026年1月12日，山东创新集团主导的沙特50万吨电解铝项目首航货物装船启运，29辆国产混凝土设备从常熟港发往沙特，标志项目建设进入实质阶段。 更关键的是，这是中国矿企"带设备出海"的样本：29辆国产设备只是开头，后续电解槽、输配电设备大概率也会用中国产，相当于把"铝厂建设+设备出 口"打包做了。2025年我国电解铝设备出口额超80亿元，沙特项目能再带火一波出口。 以前中国矿企出海是"单打独斗"，现在是"资源+设备+技术"全链条输出，既赚了建厂的钱，又卖了设备，还绑定了中东的低成本能源——这才是矿业出海的 高阶玩法。 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/01/14 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2026/01/07 -320 7742 111703 96474 -1162.96 67.15 39.0 44.0 14.98 143225 29025 2026/01/08 -325 7168 111703 108685 -941.12 186.34 42.0 46.0 16.75 141075 25925 2026/01/09 -325 6063 180543 111216 -1676.26 202.43 42.0 46.0 41.94 138975 23625 2026/01/12 -265 7353 180543 116622 -1040.64 98.02 41.0 44.0 64.31 137225 22075 2026/01/13 -140 6915 180543 122127 - -449.18 40.0 43.0 90.23 141550 5182 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-01-14 抢出口预期再起，供需改善预期推高基 本金属 有⾊观点：抢出⼝预期再起，供需改善预期推⾼基本⾦属 交易逻辑：尽管近期公布的美国经济数据偏好推高美元，但美联储独立性 受损及弱美元预期仍在；12月31日财政部确认26年第一批625亿元两新补 贴资金拨付，整体上看，宏观面预期较为稳定。原料端延续偏紧局面，铜 陵有色公告米拉多铜矿二期延期；冶炼端仍有扰动预期，整体供应端支撑 较强。终端，伴随着两新支持资金到位，家电、汽车和消费电子等终端消 费或有望改善；同时，光伏组件及电池退税政策变动，抢出口预期再起， 尽管现实供需略偏弱，但供需改善预期仍在。整体来看，中短期，弱美元 预期+供应扰动担忧逻辑没变，此前高位调整幅度较大的锡锭近期供需改 善明显，这说明下游对高价的接受程度在好转，可继续关注铜铝锡低吸做 多机会；长期，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问 题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：供应扰动持续增加，铜价延续⾼位运⾏。 氧化铝观点：基本⾯偏弱，氧化铝价震荡承压。 铝观点：库存延续累积， ...

席君安朝贸客户中的专业投资者，请勿润强、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的排价，亦不应被视为任何规资、法律、会计或税务建议，且本公司不会因素收入收到 体内容而规具为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准朝性、完整性及未来变更的可能往不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受微力作出投资决定并自主承担 投资风险、不应凭借本内容进行具体操作、本公司不对目使用本内容而造成的损失承担任何责任、除非劳有说职。本公司拥有本内容的组织和/流英地相关知识产权。 法坚本公司事先 书面许可。任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译此报告的全部或部分内容。 | 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 2026/1/13 | 李先飞 | 王蒙 | 刘雨萱 | Z0002529 | Z0012691 | Z0020476 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixia ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-01-13 抢出口预期再起，供需改善预期推高基 本金属 有⾊观点：抢出⼝预期再起，供需改善预期推⾼基本⾦属 交易逻辑：尽管近期公布的美国经济数据偏好推高美元，但美联储独立性 受损及弱美元预期仍在；12月31日财政部确认26年第一批625亿元两新补 贴资金拨付，整体上看，宏观面预期较为稳定。原料端延续偏紧局面，铜 陵有色公告米拉多铜矿二期延期；冶炼端仍有扰动预期，整体供应端支撑 较强。终端，伴随着两新支持资金到位，家电、汽车和消费电子等终端消 费或有望改善；同时，光伏组件及电池退税政策变动，抢出口预期再起， 尽管现实供需略偏弱，但供需改善预期仍在。整体来看，中短期，弱美元 预期+供应扰动担忧逻辑没变，此前高位调整幅度较大的锡锭近期供需改 善明显，这说明下游对高价的接受程度在好转，可继续关注铜铝锡低吸做 多机会；长期，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问 题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：供应扰动持续增加，铜价延续⾼位运⾏。 氧化铝观点：基本⾯偏弱，氧化铝价震荡承压。 铝观点：宏观情绪乐观， ...

摘要2026年1月12日，上海期货交易所发布关于同意云南锡业股份（000960）有限公司"YT"牌银锭注册 的公告，经研究决定，同意云南锡业股份有限公司生产的"YT"牌银锭在上海期货交易所注册，执行标 准价。 2026年1月12日，上海期货交易所发布关于同意云南锡业股份有限公司"YT"牌银锭注册的公告，经研究 决定，同意云南锡业股份有限公司生产的"YT"牌银锭在上海期货交易所注册，执行标准价。 自公告之日起，上述产品可用于上海期货交易所白银期货合约的履约交割。 产品相关说明如下： 执行标准：合约规定要求 注册企业：云南锡业股份有限公司 生产工厂：云南锡业股份有限公司铜业分公司 产地：云南省红河州蒙自市红河工业园区冶金材料加工区云锡产业园区7号路1号 产品名称：银锭 注册商标：YT 锭型：15千克IC-Ag99.99 外形尺寸：(365±20)*(135±20)毫米 块重：15±1千克 交割单位(30千克)：由2块15千克银锭组成 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Copper - Overnight, LME copper rose and then fell, while domestic copper fluctuated widely, with domestic refined copper imports remaining in a loss. The US Supreme Court will rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs, and the US Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, causing concerns about the Fed's independence. In China, export tax rebates for products like photovoltaic cells are adjusted, potentially leading to export - rush actions in Q1. LME copper inventory decreased by 1,750 tons to 137,225 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2,215 tons to 472,140 tons, and SHFE copper warrants increased by 5,406 tons to 116,622 tons. As copper prices rose again, downstream enterprises became more cautious in purchasing, and transactions were mainly for rigid demand. Despite short - term weakening fundamentals, positive sentiment in the precious metals market spread to the non - ferrous market, and the Q1 export - rush expectation also pushed copper prices up. It is suggested to buy on dips but avoid over - chasing highs [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, with AO2605 closing at 2,821 yuan/ton, a 0.63% decline, and open interest increasing by 15,068 lots to 561,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, with AL2603 closing at 24,630 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase, and open interest increasing by 4,112 lots to 383,000 lots. Aluminum alloy also fluctuated strongly, with the main contract AD2603 closing at 23,445 yuan/ton, a 1.03% increase, and open interest increasing by 306 lots to 22,296 lots. The SMM alumina price dropped to 2,659 yuan/ton, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots narrowed to par. Alumina plants have high ore reserves, with low short - term premium purchasing sentiment, and costs continue to decline. After the environmental control of alumina ends, production resumes and imports supplement, causing inventories at manufacturers and downstream to accumulate, and the logic of spot converging to futures continues. Due to the reappearance of warehousing profits in Xinjiang, warrants may put new downward pressure on the market. After the end of environmental control and the cancellation of export tax rebates, photovoltaic enterprises are rushing to export, and the operating rate of the processing end is expected to remain resilient. The pressure of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation eases, and the divergence between the macro and micro levels gradually converges, with the over - heating boost turning into a rational correction. Aluminum prices continue the high - level trend, and the spot discount continues to narrow [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel rose 2.12% to $18,075/ton, while Shanghai nickel fell 0.04% to 141,520 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 228 tons to 284,562 tons, and SHFE warrants increased by 814 tons to 39,670 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the import nickel premium remained at 600 yuan/ton. The Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources said that Indonesia will adjust its nickel quota according to industry demand to support the price of its mineral products. From a fundamental perspective, as prices rise rapidly, product prices in all links of the industrial chain strengthen, and the production of primary nickel increased by 18.5% month - on - month to 37,200 tons, which may put some pressure on the market price due to hedging demand. The Indonesian policy stimulates nickel prices to strengthen, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips near the cost line, waiting for the actual implementation of the quota [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - copper rose from 100,240 yuan/ton on January 9th to 103,175 yuan/ton on January 12th, an increase of 2,935 yuan/ton; the premium of flat - copper rose from - 80 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased from 88,100 yuan/ton to 89,600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference increased from 6,333 yuan/ton to 7,298 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total LME and SHFE registered and unregistered copper inventory remained unchanged at 138,975 tons; SHFE warrants increased by 5,406 tons to 116,622 tons, and the total weekly inventory increased from 145,342 tons to 180,543 tons. Comex inventory increased by 2,760 tons to 469,921 tons, and the domestic + bonded area social inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 353,000 tons [3]. Aluminum - Market prices: The Wuxi aluminum price increased from 24,030 yuan/ton to 24,320 yuan/ton, and the Nanhai price increased from 24,100 yuan/ton to 24,390 yuan/ton. The price of ADC12 aluminum alloy in South China increased from 23,700 yuan/ton to 23,950 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total LME registered and unregistered aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 497,825 tons; SHFE warrants increased by 6,501 tons to 97,413 tons, and the total weekly inventory increased from 129,818 tons to 143,828 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 16,000 tons to 730,000 tons, and the alumina social inventory decreased by 14,000 tons to 144,000 tons [4]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel plates increased from 146,000 yuan/ton to 151,000 yuan/ton. The price of 304 No1 stainless steel in Foshan increased from 13,200 yuan/ton to 13,300 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total LME registered and unregistered nickel inventory remained unchanged at 284,790 tons; SHFE nickel warrants increased by 814 tons to 39,670 tons, and the weekly nickel inventory increased from 45,544 tons to 46,650 tons. The social nickel inventory increased by 2,126 tons to 61,046 tons, and the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 18 tons to 855 tons [4]. Zinc - Market prices: The main contract settlement price increased from 23,880 yuan/ton to 24,030 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase. The price of SMM 0 zinc increased from 24,030 yuan/ton to 24,140 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 111,500 tons. The SHFE registered warrants decreased by 3,533 tons to 35,341 tons, and the LME registered warrants decreased by 1,050 tons to 98,775 tons [6]. Tin - Market prices: The main contract settlement price increased from 349,000 yuan/ton to 364,320 yuan/ton, a 4.4% increase. The SMM spot price increased from 349,750 yuan/ton to 368,550 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE tin inventory decreased by 1,001 tons to 6,935 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged at 5,415 tons. The SHFE registered warrants decreased by 96 tons to 6,333 tons, and the LME registered warrants increased by 10 tons to 5,290 tons [6]. Chart Analysis - The report provides charts on spot premiums, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals, covering the historical data from 2019 - 2026, but no specific data analysis in the text for these charts [13][14][20][26][32][39]. 4. Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures Research Institute consists of Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research and a senior precious metals researcher; Wang Heng, mainly researching aluminum and silicon; and Zhu Xi, focusing on lithium and nickel. They have rich experience and have won many industry awards [46][47].

锡产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292- | 2026年1月13日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 368550 | 349750 | 18800 | 5.38% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 600 | 550 | 50 | 9.09% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 369050 | 350250 | 18800 | 5.37% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -30.00 | -39.00 | 9.00 | 23.08% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 我们 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -13060.25 | -11338.32 | -1721.93 | -15.19% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 7.89 | 7.92 | | - | | | ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜： 工业硅&多晶硅： （王珩，从业资格号：F3080733；交易咨询资格号：Z0020715） （展大鹏，从业资格号：F3013795；交易咨询资格号：Z0013582） 隔夜伦铜冲高回落，国内宽幅震荡，国内精炼铜进口维系亏损。宏观方面，近期美最高法将对特朗普政 府征收关税合法性作出裁决，特朗普近日频繁表达对高法关税裁决结果的担忧；美国司法部对美联储主 席鲍威尔启动刑事调查，市场对美联储独立性再次担忧，此前热门人选哈塞特表示他尊重美联储独立性 但质疑美联储政策拖累经济增长。国内方面，光伏电池等产品出口退税调整，或导致国内一季度存在抢 出口动作。库存方面，LME库存下降1750吨至137225吨；Comex库存增加2215吨至472140吨；SHFE铜 仓单增加5406吨至116622吨，BC铜维持1053吨。需求方面，铜价再度走高，下游企业采购转为谨慎， 成交以刚需为主。贵金属乐观情绪继续传导至有色市场，即使面临短期基本面走弱的现象，但资金情绪 不减，另外一季度抢出口预期，也在情绪上继续拉动铜价走高。策略上，建议维持逢低买入思路，但不 宜过度 ...