今日早参 2026 年 3 月 06 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 何康 策略首席研究员兼金融工程首席研究 员 座机：021-28972202 邮箱：hekang@htsc.com 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：供应链风险暂未扰动日本制造业周期 概览：2 月日本实体经济景气度上行，对美出口改善推动日本出口和生产上 行，就业市场升温、财政扩张等则推动日本内需升温；补贴措施推动通胀暂 时降温。自民党在众议院选举中取得三分之二多数，市场对日本财政和货币 政策宽松预期上行，日股上涨、日元走弱，但日债收益率有所下行。往前 看，中国对日出口管制措施和中东局势升温，或加大其面临的供应链扰动风 险。 风险提示：日本财政宽松力度超预期，日本供应链受地缘扰动的风险。 研报发布日期：2026-03-05 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 胡李鹏 SAC:S0570525010001 SFC:BWA860 策略：提质增效引领"十五五"开局 2026 年 3 月 ...

2026 年 03 月 03 日 详解"里程费" 周一刻钟，大事快评（W145） 《小鹏比亚迪新技术发布,投资进入事件 催化密集期 ——2026/2/24-2026/3/1 汽 o 车周报》 2026/03/01 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱傅哲 A0230524080008 zhufz@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 本期投资提示: 核心风险：原材料价格波动风险,地缘政治风险,行业复苏不及预期 ● #研究报 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 长寸 分别 7 = 3 " + 行业点评 相关研究 详解"里程费"：近期市场关注"新能源车里程费"。我们将结合国内财税结构、汽车 产业发展背景及政策推进流程，分析其核心逻辑、现实动因及未来落地展望。 O 从现行财税体系来看,汽车的相关税费是公路建设与养护的核心资金来源。其中,养路 费自 2009 年起已正式并入成品油消费税, 当前每升成品油中约含 1 元相关税费, 该部 分收入通过国家转移支付拨至地方交通、公安等相关部门，全部用于公路的日常养护、 管理及运维，构 ...

汽车和汽车零部件行业周报 20260301 静待板块需求好转 北美缺电链迎来高增 glmszqdatemark 投资建议： 乘用车：各地陆续开启 2026 年以旧换新补贴，叠加春节后车展前新车陆续推出， 汽车销量有望企稳回升，建议关注乘用车需求底部的左侧机会，推荐【吉利汽车、 小鹏汽车、比亚迪】，建议关注【江淮汽车】。 零部件： 1）智能化：推荐智能驾驶-【伯特利、地平线机器人、科博达】，智能 座舱-【继峰股份】；2）新势力产业链：推荐 H 链-【星宇股份、沪光股份】；推 荐 T 链-【拓普集团、新泉股份、双环传动】；3）业绩反转链：推荐【金固股份】 4）北美缺电链：推荐【潍柴动力】，建议关注【动力新科、渤海汽车、天润工业、 长源东谷、中原内配、威孚高科】等。 机器人：推荐汽配机器人标的【拓普集团、新泉股份、伯特利、均胜电子、沪光 股份、豪能股份、双环传动、隆盛科技】，汽车机器人主机厂【小鹏汽车】，建 议关注【岱美股份、宁波华翔】。 摩托车：推荐中大排量龙头车企【春风动力、隆鑫通用】。 商用车：重卡-天然气重卡企稳回升，以旧换新政策驱动内需向上，推荐【潍柴动 力、中国重汽】；客车-出口盈利能力强劲，推荐【宇通 ...

汽车和汽车零部件行业周报 20260301 投资建议： 乘用车：各地陆续开启 2026 年以旧换新补贴，叠加春节后车展前新车陆续推出， 汽车销量有望企稳回升，建议关注乘用车需求底部的左侧机会，推荐【吉利汽车、 小鹏汽车、比亚迪】，建议关注【江淮汽车】。 静待板块需求好转 北美缺电链迎来高增 glmszqdatemark 零部件： 1）智能化：推荐智能驾驶-【伯特利、地平线机器人、科博达】，智能 座舱-【继峰股份】；2）新势力产业链：推荐 H 链-【星宇股份、沪光股份】；推 荐 T 链-【拓普集团、新泉股份、双环传动】；3）业绩反转链：推荐【金固股份】 4）北美缺电链：推荐【潍柴动力】，建议关注【动力新科、渤海汽车、天润工业、 长源东谷、中原内配、威孚高科】等。 机器人：推荐汽配机器人标的【拓普集团、新泉股份、伯特利、均胜电子、沪光 股份、豪能股份、双环传动、隆盛科技】，汽车机器人主机厂【小鹏汽车】，建 议关注【岱美股份、宁波华翔】。 摩托车：推荐中大排量龙头车企【春风动力、隆鑫通用】。 商用车：重卡-天然气重卡企稳回升，以旧换新政策驱动内需向上，推荐【潍柴动 力、中国重汽】；客车-出口盈利能力强劲，推荐【宇通 ...

| 股票名称 | 涨跌幅 (%) | 主力资金流向 | 所属行) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中际旭创 | 6.74 | 17.06亿元 | 通信 | | 比亚迪 | 4.4 | 15.90亿元 | 汽车 | | 新易盛 | 5.16 | 14.47亿元 | 通信 | | 雷科防务 | 10.02 | 7.83亿元 | 国防军_ | | 中国卫星 | 6.52 | 7.01亿元 | 国防军_ | | 飞龙股份 | 10 | 5.70亿元 | 汽车 | | 东山精密 | 4.01 | 5.17亿元 | 电子 | | 亨通光电 | 6.36 | 5.16亿元 | 通信 | | 特变电工 | 3.1 | 4.77亿元 | 电力设备 | | 长江电力 | 2.04 | 4.28亿元 | 必開量7 | | 长飞光纤 | 7.24 | 4.05亿元 | 通信 | | 麦格米特 | 5.69 | 3.24亿元 | 电力设备 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 东方电气 | 2.7 | 3.24亿元 | 电力设备 | | 农业银行 | 1.88 | 3.17亿元 | 银 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share private placement market is witnessing a significant shift from traditional discount-based participation to high-premium issuance, with several projects achieving premium rates exceeding 20% [1][3]. Group 1: High Premium Issuance - A number of private placement projects have been successfully issued at high premiums, breaking the previous norm of "buying shares at a discount" [1][3]. - The issuance of shares by Guangdian Measurement has a premium rate of 29.09%, raising a total of 1.3 billion yuan at an issue price of 24.01 yuan per share [3]. - The automotive industry has seen particularly notable high-premium issuances, with companies like Jianghuai Automobile and Fengshen Co. achieving premium rates of 23.93% and 125% respectively [4]. Group 2: Participants in High Premium Placements - Public funds are the primary participants in high-premium private placements, with notable involvement from private equity, securities firms, insurance capital, and foreign institutions [1][6]. - The largest single subscription for the North Vehicle Blue Valley's new round of private placement was made by E Fund, amounting to 2.2 billion yuan [7]. - Notable individual investors, referred to as "bulls," have also played a significant role, with some becoming the largest subscribers in various projects [8][9]. Group 3: Investment Focus and Trends - The focus of investment has shifted towards sectors such as new energy vehicles, artificial intelligence, and high-end manufacturing, driven by macroeconomic policies and industry trends [2][10]. - The funds raised in these private placements are primarily allocated to the development of high-end intelligent electric platforms and new materials, aligning with the industry's push for innovation and sustainability [10][11]. - The demand for advanced materials and technologies in the automotive sector is increasing, with companies like Yao Pi Glass and Zhongbei Communication investing in energy-saving upgrades and 5G infrastructure [11][12].

Group 1 - A well-known private equity mogul has invested approximately 1 billion yuan in a private placement of a certain automotive listed company, causing significant excitement among investors [1] - The article emphasizes that many investors are often swayed by news and market fluctuations, leading to impulsive decisions without understanding the underlying market dynamics [1] - It highlights the importance of analyzing market behavior through quantitative data rather than solely relying on price movements [2][6] Group 2 - The article discusses the challenges investors face in distinguishing between genuine market signals and misleading price movements, such as sudden large declines or recoveries [9][11] - It illustrates how quantitative data can reveal the true intentions behind trading actions, helping investors avoid common pitfalls [14] - The piece advocates for a multi-dimensional approach to market analysis, incorporating factors like funding, behavior, and price to enhance investment decision-making [14]

Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival Gala will feature a diverse range of corporate partners, reflecting the evolution of China's commercial landscape over the past four decades [1][8] - The event serves as a significant platform for brand recognition and influence, with a history of successful partnerships, particularly in the tech and consumer goods sectors [3][8] Company Partnerships - Eight listed companies have been confirmed as partners for the 2026 Spring Festival Gala, including three liquor companies, two automotive companies, two video platforms, and one toy company [3][8] - Wuliangye will be the exclusive interactive partner for the "Harmony and Goodness" segment, marking its fourth appearance at the gala [5][10] - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ will serve as the exclusive timekeeping partner for the seventh consecutive year, while Gujing Gongjiu celebrates its 11th year of partnership [5][10] Automotive Collaborations - Huawei and JAC Motors have launched the Zun Jie S800, which will be the flagship partner for smart travel at the gala [4][9] - Great Wall Motors will again be the designated vehicle for new media coverage of the gala, featuring its flagship models [4][9] Technological Innovations - The 2026 gala will emphasize technological advancements, with partnerships from companies like Yushutech, Volcano Engine, and Galaxy General, focusing on robotics and AI [6][11] - Volcano Engine will engage in program production and online interaction, while Yushutech will showcase cutting-edge robotics technology [6][11] Cultural and Emotional Engagement - MINISO has partnered with the gala to launch a series of cultural toys, reflecting a shift from material to cultural consumption [6][11] - The collaboration aims to enhance emotional engagement and cultural relevance in consumer products [6][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive sector [3] Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to stabilize and recover due to the introduction of local subsidies for vehicle replacement and the upcoming launch of new models after the Spring Festival [2][12] - The report highlights key investment opportunities in various segments, including passenger vehicles, automotive parts, and motorcycles, with specific company recommendations [2][19][34] Summary by Sections 1. Passenger Vehicles - The introduction of the 2026 vehicle replacement subsidy is expected to stimulate domestic demand positively [14] - The subsidy structure will improve the model mix, with new energy vehicles receiving 12% of the vehicle price as a subsidy (up to 20,000 yuan) and fuel vehicles receiving 10% (up to 15,000 yuan) [15][16] - Recommended companies include Geely, Xpeng, and BYD, with a focus on the left side of the demand bottom [2][19] 2. Automotive Parts - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the automotive parts sector, particularly in intelligent driving and new energy vehicle supply chains [19][23] - Recommended companies include Bertel, Horizon Robotics, and Top Group, focusing on the H and T chains [2][19] 3. Motorcycles - The report suggests a focus on mid-to-large displacement motorcycle manufacturers, with companies like Chunfeng Power and Longxin General recommended [31][34] - The market for mid-to-large displacement motorcycles is expected to expand, driven by supply and export efforts from leading manufacturers [34] 4. Commercial Vehicles - The heavy truck market is projected to recover due to the continuation of the vehicle replacement subsidy policy, with recommendations for Weichai Power and China National Heavy Duty Truck [35][36] 5. Tires - The tire industry is expected to benefit from ongoing globalization and the optimization of production structures, with recommendations for Sailun Tire and Senqilin [37][39]

Core Viewpoint - Ferrari's stock price increased by 4.60% on February 11, closing at $379.94, driven by strong financial performance, progress in electrification strategy, and market capital flow [1] Financial Performance - Ferrari's Q4 2025 financial report showed net revenue rising to €1.8 billion, exceeding market expectations. Annual net profit grew by 9.69% to €1.6 billion, and industrial free cash flow surged by 50% to €1.538 billion, highlighting the company's profitability quality [2] Business and Technological Development - CEO Benedetto Vigna emphasized positive market feedback for the first all-electric model, Luce, which is set to be launched in May 2026. Ferrari will not force customers to bundle purchases of electric vehicles, maintaining a customer-oriented product strategy. In 2026, the company plans to launch four new models as part of a strategy to introduce at least 20 models by 2030 [3] Capital Movement - On the same day, the automotive industry saw a net capital inflow of ¥1.81 billion, indicating a recovery in sector sentiment. Ferrari's stock price experienced a cumulative increase of 11.97% over five days, with trading volume expanding to $19.32 million, reflecting active trading. Despite a decline in the broader U.S. stock market, capital concentrated on high-quality performance stocks, pushing the stock price to a new interim high [4]