能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 原油 | SC2508 | 520 | 4 | 0.85 | 12.89 | -2.29 | 2.45 | -0.00 | | 液化气 | PG2508 | 4,192 | 14 | 0.34 | 4.24 | -0.85 | 5.19 | -0.05 | | 甲醇 | MA2509 | 2,393 | 28 | 1.18 | 81.79 | 19.48 | 71.13 | 1.70 | | 乙二醇 | EG2509 | 4,308 | 33 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 7 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 周四油价下跌，其中 WTI 8 月合约收盘下跌 1.81 美元至 66.57 美 | 震荡 | | | 元/桶，跌幅 2.65%。布伦特 9 月合约收盘下跌 1.55 美元至 68.64 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 2.21%。SC2508 以 512.8 元/桶收盘，下跌 7.5 元/ | | | | 桶，跌幅为 1.44%。OPEC 下调了 2025 年至 2029 年期间所有年份 | | | | 的石油需求增长预测。该报告预计，从现在到 2050 年，全球石油 | | | | 1.23 10 需求将增长约 19%，达到 亿桶/日。OPEC+在讨论从 月份 | | | | 开始暂停进一步增产，市场或将 OPEC+讨论停止增产解读为"市 | | | | 场无法消化更多供应"的信号；一旦需求高峰期结束，可能会存 | | | | 在供应过剩的风险。当前来看，油价震荡运行为主，需进一步关 | | | | 注美国关税政策对需求的影响， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market are still uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals remain in a tight - balance. Crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] - Methanol is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. With the improvement of domestic commodity sentiment, the upward and downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - The supply and demand of domestic urea are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5] - For rubber, it is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the second half of the year. Adopt a long - term bullish mindset, build positions opportunistically, and use a neutral - to - bullish short - term strategy [8][12] - PVC is expected to have strong supply and weak demand. The main logic of the market is inventory reduction and weakening. It will be under pressure in the future [14] - The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [17] - The price of polyethylene is expected to remain volatile [19] - The price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July [20] - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory in the third quarter. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [23] - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the demand side is slightly under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [24] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [25] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.42, or 2.08%, to $66.87; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.30, or 1.85%, to $68.88; INE main crude oil futures rose 2.80 yuan, or 0.54%, to 522.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.37 million barrels to 12.00 million barrels, a 2.97% decrease; diesel inventory decreased by 0.15 million barrels to 9.74 million barrels, a 1.51% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 1.33 million barrels to 24.71 million barrels, a 5.68% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.81 million barrels to 46.46 million barrels, a 1.78% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 26 yuan/ton to 2398 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 8 [3] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate continued to decline by 3.89%, coal - to - methanol profit increased slightly, and overseas plant operating rate returned to medium - high levels [3] - **Demand**: Port MTO load decreased slightly, traditional demand operating rates varied, and it is currently the off - season. Downstream profit levels are generally low, and methanol valuation is still high [3] - **Inventory**: Both port and enterprise inventories increased during the off - season [3] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 1777 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 53 [5] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.6 tons, and the overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level [5] - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizers has bottomed out and rebounded, and exports are still ongoing. Future demand is concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [5] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Due to the bullish expectations in the real estate market, most industrial products rose, and NR and RU rose significantly [8] - **Long - Short Views**: Bulls believe that factors in Southeast Asia may lead to rubber production cuts, and rubber usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [8] - **Industry Situation**: As of July 10, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.54%, up 0.81 percentage points from last week and 5.59 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, up 2.51 percentage points from last week and down 6.36 percentage points from the same period last year. Tire enterprises' shipment rhythm has slowed down, and inventory is under pressure [9] - **Inventory**: As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a 0.6% increase; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 78.9 tons, a 1.2% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 50.5 tons, a 0.3% decrease. As of July 7, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.52 (- 0.14) tons [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14150 (+ 300) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1735 (+ 30) dollars, STR20 mixed was 1740 (+ 30) dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 9100 (+ 50) yuan, and North China butadiene was 11200 (0) yuan [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 77 yuan to 5040 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4860 (+ 70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 180 (- 7) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 103 (- 8) yuan/ton [14] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2250 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 620 (- 10) yuan/ton, ethylene was 820 (0) dollars/ton, and the cost remained flat. The spot price of caustic soda was 820 (+ 10) yuan/ton [14] - **Supply**: The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a 0.7% decrease; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.8%, a 0.2% decrease; the ethylene method was 68.5%, a 1.9% decrease [14] - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.9%, a 0.1% increase [14] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 38.6 tons (- 0.9), and social inventory was 59.2 tons (+ 1.7) [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot prices remained unchanged, while futures prices rose, and the basis weakened [17] - **Cost**: The operating rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was relatively abundant [17] - **Supply**: The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation increased, and the operating rate of styrene continued to rise. Port inventory increased [17] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products decreased [17] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [19] - **Supply**: The upstream operating rate was 77.82%, a 0.34% increase. Production enterprise inventory increased by 5.47 tons to 49.31 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 0.09 tons to 6.05 tons [19] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the demand for agricultural films was weak, and the overall operating rate fluctuated downward [19] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose [20] - **Supply**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, increasing the supply of propylene [20] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. In the off - season, both supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to be bearish in July [20] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 58 yuan to 6782 yuan, and PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 852 dollars. The basis was 240 yuan (- 45), and the 9 - 1 spread was 64 yuan (- 10) [22] - **Supply**: The operating rate in China was 81%, a 2.8% decrease; the Asian operating rate was 74.1%, a 1.1% increase. Some domestic plants reduced production, while some overseas plants restarted or increased loads [22] - **Demand**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase [22] - **Inventory**: In late May, the inventory was 434.6 tons, a 16.5 - ton decrease from the previous month [23] - **Valuation**: PXN was 261 dollars (+ 9), and the naphtha crack spread was 84 dollars (+ 11) [23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 24 yuan to 4742 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 4735 yuan. The basis was 7 yuan (- 29), and the 9 - 1 spread was 12 yuan (- 16) [24] - **Supply**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase. Some plants increased production, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [24] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 213.5 tons, a 1.9 - ton increase [24] - **Valuation**: The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 24 yuan to 128 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 14 yuan to 293 yuan [24] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 42 yuan to 4325 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 27 yuan to 4374 yuan. The basis was 70 (- 1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 33 yuan (- 4) [25] - **Supply**: The EG operating rate was 68.1%, a 1.5% increase; among them, the syngas - based method was 73.1%, a 3.8% increase; the ethylene - based method was 64.2%, a 0.6% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants restarted [25] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [25] - **Inventory**: The import forecast was 9.6 tons, and the East China port outbound volume on July 9 was 1.24 tons. Port inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 58 tons [25] - **Valuation**: The profit of naphtha - based production was - 644 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 704 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 951 yuan [25]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 7 月 10 日） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 光大期货能化商品日报 | | 料需求，不过至少需要到 8 月下旬或 9 月初，亚洲炼厂才可能出 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 现规模性原料需求。短期高、低硫市场的单边驱动不明显，整体 | | | | 跟随成本端原油区间震荡为主。 | | | 沥青 | 周三，上期所沥青主力合约 BU2509 收涨 0.86%，报 3623 元/吨。 | | | | 百川盈孚统计，本周国内炼厂沥青总库存水平为 27.91%，环比持 | | | | 平；本周社会库存率为 35.81%，环比上涨 0.33%；本周国内沥青 | | | | 厂装置开工率为 35.53%，环比上升 2.72%。目前燃料油及稀释沥 | | | | 青消费税抵扣政策调整的影响暂未显现，7 月供应整体维持稳中 | 震荡 | | | 有增；南方地区降雨减少，刚需缓慢恢复，而 7 月降水天气密集， | | | | 且影响范围扩大，北方地区开始的降雨对需求有一定阻碍。短期 | | | | ...

| L2601收盘价 | 7254 | 7225 | 29 | 0.40% | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2509 收盘价 PP2601 收盘价 | 7278 7034 | 7245 7006 | 33 28 | 0.46% 0.40% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 7078 | 7045 | 33 | 0.47% | | | L2509-2601 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 20.00% | | | PP2509-2601 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 12.82% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7100 | 7090 | 10 | 0.14% | | | 华北LDPE膜料现货 | 7170 | 7170 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华北 塑料基差 | -110 | -80 | -30 | 37.50% | | | 华东 pp基差 | 30 | 50 | -20 | -40.00% | | | PE PP非标价格 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东LD ...

能源化工日报 2025-07-10 我们认为当前地缘风险仍有不确定性，虽然 OPEC 略超预期增产，但我们认为当前基本面仍处 于紧平衡，整体原油处于强现实与弱预期的多空博弈当中，建议投资者把握风控，观望处理。 甲醇 2025/07/10 甲醇 原油 2025/07/10 原油早评 能源化工组 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收涨 0.11 美元，涨幅 0.16%，报 68.29 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 0.15 美元，涨幅 0.21%，报 70.18 美元；INE 主力原油期货收涨 9.00 元，涨幅 1.76%， 报 519.7 元。 数据方面：美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存累库 7.07 百万桶至 426.02 百万桶， 环比累库 1.69%；SPR 补库 0.24 百万桶至 403.00 百万桶，环比补库 0.06%；汽油库存去库 2.66 百万桶至 229.47 百万桶，环比去库 1.15%；柴油库存去库 0.83 百万桶至 102.80 百万桶，环 比去库 0.80%；燃料油库存去库 0.45 百万桶至 21.83 百万桶，环比去库 2.03%；航空煤油库 存去库 0.91 百万 ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 9 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价低开高走，其中 WTI 8月合约收盘上涨 0.93 美元至 67.93 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.39%。布伦特 9 月合约收盘上涨 1.28 美元至 69.58 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.87%。SC2508 以 512.0 元/桶收盘，上涨 10.7 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 2.13%。油价无视欧佩克+超预期增产利空，价格偏强 | | | | 运行。宏观方面，美国总统特朗普签署行政令，将对等关税生效 | | | | 日和谈判截止日期从 7 月 9 日延后至 8 月 1 日。此外，他还向 14 | | | | 个国家发出首批关税信函，8 月 1 日起将对日本和韩国加征 25% | | | | 关税，对马来西亚、哈萨克斯坦和突尼斯征收 25%的关税，南非 | | | 原油 | 则将面临 30%的税率，老挝和缅甸将被征收 40%的关税。 | 震荡 | | | 其他受影响国家还包括印尼 32%、孟加拉国 3 ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 8 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩 ...

厦油产业期现日报 宙 扬 Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 7月7日 | 7月3日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | Brent WTI | 67.78 | 68.30 | -0.52 | -0.76% | 美元/桶 | | | 65.98 | 67.00 | -1.02 | -1.52% | | | ਟ | 501.20 | 506.40 | -5.20 | -1.03% | 元/桶 | | Brent M1-M3 | 1.67 | 1.84 | -0.17 | -9.24% | 美元/桶 | | WTI M1-M3 | 2.37 | 2.60 | -0.23 | -8.85% | | | SC MI-M3 | 9.40 | 11.60 | -2.20 | -18.97% | 元/相 | | Brent-WTI | 1.80 | 1.80 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | EFS | 1.79 | 1.85 | -0.06 | -3.24% | 美元/桶 | | SC-Bren ...