点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 （张旭） 2026-03-05 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【固收】如何科学评价"春节月"的PMI？——2026年3月4日利率债观察 传统方法是依照PMI是否超过50%判断，当制造业PMI高于50%时，反映经济总体较上月扩张，当低于 50%时，则反映经济总体较上月收缩。在投资实践中，部分投资者重点关注当期值相对于上一期值的变 化，这种方法的好处是可以灵敏地对最新数据进行感知。我们认为也可以与历史的分位数相比，例如与中 位数和1/4分位数相比。 （张旭） 2026-03-04 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查 看 【固收】物价的合理回升与长债的收益率——2026年3月5日利率债观察 2025年四季度以来，推动物价回升的积极因素便不断累积。去年12月CPI当月同比涨 ...

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略深度报告 策略深度报告 20260302 3 月度金股：内外博弈与应对 2026 年 03 月 02 日 [Table_Summary] ◼ 3 月，市场将围绕内部政策窗口与外部事件冲击的双重变量展开博弈 内部政策方面，今年两会总量政策预期偏平，结构性亮点值得关注。从历 史经验看，两会行情表现取决于政策预期差，大致分为几种情形：一是政 策大年，如 16 年供给侧改革、19 年减税、21 年双碳，会中会后以上涨为 主；二是政策预期落空或意外边际收紧，如 18 年去杠杆、22 年稳增长不 及预期，市场相对承压；三是市场对总量政策预期不高，但出现显著产业 亮点，如 24 年低空经济、25 年深海科技。对于今年，更可能演绎第三种 情形：市场对总量政策的预期相对温和，博弈或有限，因此两会期间大盘 指数层面大概率维持平稳震荡；市场对于产业政策的关注度较高，特别是 "十五五"规划潜在的重点方向，若两会期间出现超预期的表述或催化， 相关主题有望获得积极反馈。 外部因素方面，美伊冲突骤然升级为市场增添新的变数。本次冲突烈度较 高，美军直接参战并部署大规模力量，中东局势进入"白热化"阶段，后 续焦点在 ...

证券研究报告 工业/能源 霍尔木兹变局可能助推能源转型加速 华泰研究 2026 年 3 月 02 日│中国内地 动态点评 美国与以色列 2 月 28 日对伊朗发动联合军事打击，伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹 海峡，我们认为这将通过三种路径影响能源供给及价格：1）供应中断风险 （途径霍尔木兹海峡的原油、天然气规模较高）；2）航线绕行增加运输时 间和成本；3）市场预期放大价格波动幅度。我们认为此次事件也将提升全 球各国对于能源安全与自主的紧迫性认知，加速能源转型从而减少对于中东 油气进口的依赖。我们推测： • 发电对 LNG 进口依赖度高的国家短期将先增加煤炭采购以应急，并 快速部署光储系统（包括户用光储），推升煤化工用煤需求； • 中长期则需要走向风光储+核电、绿氢制甲醇的自主可控解决方案。 我们重申推荐电新和煤炭板块，看好宁德时代 A/H、阳光电源、亿纬锂能、 天赐材料、华明装备、特变电工、伊顿、福斯特、Enphase、中国神华 H。 冲突或带来能源供给受阻及价格高企，储能需求有望得到拉动 光储系统可快速部署解燃眉之急，能源价格高企更显经济性；且自主可控。 能源保供诉求下，冲突将拉动受影响地区需求（参照俄乌冲突后欧洲储 ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis

Group 1 - The main point of the article highlights that major funds have net sold over 1.5 billion in Zijin Mining [1] - In the early trading session, major funds saw net inflows in sectors such as food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, and film and television, while experiencing net outflows in the electric new energy, non-ferrous metals, and electronics sectors [1] - The electric new energy sector had a significant net outflow exceeding 15.3 billion [1] Group 2 - Pingtan Development reached the daily limit with a net buy of over 1.1 billion, leading the inflow rankings [1] - Companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, N Beixin-U, and Wangsu Technology also saw significant net inflows from major funds [1] - Zijin Mining faced the largest net sell-off, exceeding 1.5 billion, along with other companies like Tebian Electric, Xinyisheng, and Longi Green Energy experiencing notable net outflows [1]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several key stocks in the financial and manufacturing sectors, including China Resources Land and Beike-W [15][18][20][21]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows a continuation of strong supply and weak demand characteristics, with short-term growth pressure remaining manageable [9]. - The real estate sector is experiencing a valuation recovery opportunity for quality developers due to a resonance between fundamentals and policies [10]. - The banking sector is witnessing a recovery from oversold conditions, with stock prices rebounding ahead of improvements in the funding environment [20]. - The non-bank financial sector is expected to benefit from policy-driven high-quality development, with a focus on high-performing stocks [22]. - The new energy sector has established a bottom line, with attention on marginal changes in new technologies [25]. - The machinery sector is gaining order resilience from overseas solar expansion and new business developments, while space solar technology opens growth opportunities [31]. - The environmental sector is focusing on carbon neutrality opportunities, with overseas expansion and metal prices providing elasticity [33]. Summary by Sections Real Estate - The sector is expected to face challenges in 2026, but recent policy easing and improved second-hand housing sales indicate a potential recovery [14]. - China Resources Land is highlighted as a leading developer with strong operational capabilities and a solid financial position, projected to achieve a net profit of 26.2 billion, 27 billion, and 28.2 billion from 2025 to 2027 [15]. Banking - Nanjing Bank is recommended due to its expected double-digit revenue growth in 2025, driven by stable asset quality and improved net interest margins [21]. Non-Bank Financials - New China Life Insurance is noted for its high elasticity and potential for improved returns on equity, with projected intrinsic values of 292.1 billion and 329.0 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively [24]. New Energy - The storage sector is expected to see demand stability supported by national capacity pricing, while lithium battery technology is anticipated to rebound with improved economic conditions [25]. - JunDa Co. is recognized for its strategic partnerships and potential growth in the space solar sector, with projected profits increasing significantly by 2027 [27]. Machinery - The machinery sector is benefiting from overseas solar project expansions, with companies like DiEr Laser positioned to capitalize on new technologies and increased order volumes [31][32]. Environmental - Weiming Environmental is highlighted for its potential in the Indonesian waste-to-energy market, with expected project launches in early 2026 [39]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.88 billion and 3.44 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively [39]. Light Industry - The light industry is seeing a rebound in export-driven companies, with a focus on quality stocks that can leverage cost efficiencies and supply chain advantages [43]. Military Industry - The military sector is expected to benefit from the transition of military technology to civilian applications and increased military trade, with key recommendations including Aviation Power and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry [51][53].

Core Viewpoint - The major shareholder of Three Gorges Energy has successfully increased its stake by 799 million yuan, reflecting confidence in the company's future growth prospects [1][3]. Group 1: Shareholder Actions - As of December 2025, the major shareholder, Three Gorges Group, has cumulatively invested 799 million yuan to acquire approximately 187 million shares, representing about 0.65% of the total share capital [3][4]. - Three Gorges Group plans to invest between 1.5 billion yuan and 3 billion yuan to further increase its stake in Three Gorges Energy over the next 12 months [3][5]. - By the end of 2025, Three Gorges Group and its concerted parties will hold a total of 53.34% of Three Gorges Energy's shares [2][5]. Group 2: Company Performance - Three Gorges Energy primarily engages in the development, investment, and operation of wind and solar energy, achieving a total power generation of approximately 762.61 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.99% [2][8]. - The company faced operational challenges due to electricity price adjustments, resulting in a decline in net profit to 4.313 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 15.31% year-on-year [2][8]. - Despite the profit decline, Three Gorges Energy has maintained strong overall profitability, with cumulative profits of 30.403 billion yuan since its IPO in 2021 [9]. Group 3: Future Projects and Investments - Three Gorges Energy is actively expanding its power generation capacity, with significant projects such as the Inner Mongolia Kubuqi Desert renewable energy base, which has a dynamic investment amount of approximately 79.792 billion yuan [7][8]. - The company has also announced plans to invest 41.169 billion yuan in three offshore wind power projects in Guangdong, which are expected to be fully operational by the end of 2024 [7][8]. - As of September 2025, the company's construction projects amounted to 70.924 billion yuan, doubling from 35.491 billion yuan at the end of 2021 [7].

Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend around the Spring Festival in February 2026, with a focus on the "Technology + Resources" mainline market[3] - Key attention should be given to the earnings reports of US tech stocks and the potential validation of AI industry trends[3] Investment Strategy - Focus on three main lines: - Technology sector, including optical modules, storage, semiconductor equipment, and energy storage, addressing the issues of electricity shortages in the US, chip shortages domestically, and global storage shortages[3] - Non-ferrous metals, with increased volatility expected after January, particularly in industrial metals and chemicals[3] - Hot topics such as robots participating in the Spring Festival Gala and updates on AI large models[3] Recommended Stocks - **Metals**: Shandong Gold (EPS: 1.78, PE: 30.6 in 2026E)[20] - **Chemicals**: Juhua Co. (EPS: 2.51, PE: 15.7 in 2026E)[20] - **New Energy**: Junda Co. (EPS: 1.67, PE: 60.5 in 2026E)[20] - **Machinery**: Dier Laser (EPS: 2.87, PE: 30.6 in 2026E)[20] - **Military Industry**: Aero Engine Corporation (EPS: 0.35, PE: 132.9 in 2026E)[20] - **Non-Banking**: New China Life (EPS: 10.68, PE: 7.8 in 2026E)[20] - **Automotive**: Top Group (EPS: 1.92, PE: 37.7 in 2026E)[20] - **Electronics**: Jingce Electronics (EPS: 1.15, PE: 115.3 in 2026E)[20] - **Communication**: Zhongji Xuchuang (EPS: 17.40, PE: 37.3 in 2026E)[20] - **Media**: Giant Network (EPS: 2.12, PE: 20.8 in 2026E)[20] Risk Factors - Economic recovery may fall short of expectations, leading to slow growth or stagnation due to factors like slow job growth and reduced market demand[22] - Significant changes in individual stock fundamentals could lead to substantial declines in revenue or net profit[22]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect reached a total of 375.77 billion, with Zijin Mining and CATL leading in individual stock trading volume. The non-ferrous metals sector saw the highest net inflow of funds, while the CSI 500 ETF experienced a significant increase in trading volume, up 1188% compared to the previous trading day [1][2][5][9]. Group 1: Trading Volume and Stock Performance - The total trading amount for the Shanghai Stock Connect was 185.69 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect totaled 190.08 billion [2]. - Zijin Mining topped the Shanghai Stock Connect with a trading volume of 42.38 billion, followed by兆易创新 (22.70 billion) and 澜起科技 (20.47 billion) [3]. - CATL led the Shenzhen Stock Connect with a trading volume of 58.28 billion, followed by 阳光电源 (34.92 billion) and 中际旭创 (32.50 billion) [3]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals, oil and gas, and coal sectors showed the highest gains, while the pharmaceutical and photovoltaic sectors experienced the largest declines [5]. - The non-ferrous metals sector had the highest net inflow of funds, while the electric power sector saw the largest net outflow [5]. Group 3: ETF Trading - The top ETF by trading volume was the CSI 300 ETF from Huatai-PB, with a trading amount of 401.00 billion, reflecting a 96.09% increase [8]. - The CSI 500 ETF from Huaxia saw a remarkable trading volume increase of 1188% compared to the previous trading day, reaching 40.44 billion [9]. Group 4: Institutional and Retail Trading - Institutional trading activity decreased, with notable purchases in stocks like 宏景科技 (1.45 billion) and 巨力索具 (1.22 billion) [12][13]. - Retail trading was active, with significant transactions in 网宿科技, which saw a buy of 3.37 billion and a sell of 2.31 billion from different trading desks [14][15].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that major capital inflows were observed in the communication, banking, and semiconductor sectors, while significant outflows occurred in the electric new energy, pharmaceutical, and non-ferrous metal sectors [1] - Zhongji Xuchuang experienced a substantial increase, with net capital inflow exceeding 2.255 billion, ranking first among individual stocks [1] - New Yisheng, Industrial Fulian, and Tianfu Communication also saw notable net capital inflows, indicating strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - The electric new energy sector faced a net outflow exceeding 14.9 billion, reflecting potential challenges or reduced investor confidence in this area [1] - Tebian Electric experienced a significant net sell-off of over 1.3 billion, indicating a negative sentiment towards the stock [1] - Other companies such as Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Hunan Silver, and Oriental Fortune also faced considerable net outflows, suggesting a broader trend of capital withdrawal from certain sectors [1]