证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 17 日 星期三 【A 股市场大势研判】 三大指数跌超 1% 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3824.81 | -1.11% | -43.11 | | | 深证成指 | 12914.67 | -1.51% | -197.42 | | | 沪深 300 | 4497.55 | -1.20% | -54.51 | | | 创业板 | 3071.76 | -2.10% | -66.04 | | | 科创 50 | 1293.38 | -1.94% | -25.52 | | | 北证 50 | 1439.65 | 0.54% | 7.70 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概念板块表现前五 ◼ | | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商贸零售 | 1.32% | ...

12月16日，A股市场整体下跌。 截至收盘，上证指数收报3824.81点，下跌1.11%；深证成指收报12914.67点，下跌1.51%；创业板指收报3071.76点，下跌2.1%。两市合计成交17241.73亿 元，较上一交易日减少492.66亿元。 1.两市主力资金净流出超520亿元 今日沪深两市主力资金开盘净流出188.21亿元，尾盘净流出55.16亿元，两市全天主力资金净流出520.66亿元。 | | | 沪深两市最近五个交易日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | 尾盘净流入 | 超大单净买入 | | 2025-12-16 | -520. 66 | -188. 21 | -55. 16 | -268. 81 | | 2025-12-15 | -360. 27 | -151.41 | -55. 63 | -167.99 | | 2025-12-12 | -89.34 | -136. 84 | -5.49 | -27. 62 | | 2025-12-11 | -563.42 | -129.88 | ...

12月16日，A股市场整体下跌。 截至收盘，上证指数收报3824.81点，下跌1.11%；深证成指收报12914.67点，下跌1.51%；创业板指收报3071.76点，下跌2.1%。两市合计成交17241.73亿元，较上一 交易日减少492.66亿元。 1. 两市主力资金净流出超520亿元 今日沪深两市主力资金开盘净流出188.21亿元，尾盘净流出55.16亿元，两市全天主力资金净流出520.66亿元。 3.美容护理行业实现净流入 | 行业 | 涨跌幅 | 净流入资金 | 资金流入较多个股 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | | | 美容护理 | 0. 32% | 1.42 | 爱美客 | | 商贸零售 | 1. 32% | -1. 62 | 供销大集 | | 社会服务 | -0. 29% | -3. 10 | 中公教育 | | 食品饮料 | 0. 28% | -4. 12 | 伊利股份 | | 综合 | -2. 33% | -4. 55 | 南京新自 | | | | 资金净流出居前的行业 | | | 行业 | 涨跌幅 | 净流入资金 | 资金流出较多个股 | | ...

美容护理行业资金流向排名 美容护理行业今日上涨0.66%，全天主力资金净流入1.05亿元，该行业所属的个股共29只，今日上涨的 有15只；下跌的有14只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的个股有17只，其中，净流入资 金超千万元的有5只，净流入资金居首的是爱美客，今日净流入资金3998.35万元，紧随其后的是青松股 份、水羊股份，净流入资金分别为2095.84万元、2029.83万元。美容护理行业资金净流出个股中，净流 出资金居前的有珀莱雅、中顺洁柔、延江股份，净流出资金分别为862.14万元、681.03万元、589.58万 元。（数据宝） 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 （原标题：美容护理行业今日净流入资金1.05亿元，爱美客等5股净流入资金超千万元） | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300896 | 爱美客 | 2.02 | 2.22 | 3998.35 | | 300132 | 青松股份 | 1.03 | 5.28 | 2095.84 ...

消息面上，政策暖风频吹，为消费板块的强势表现提供了坚实支撑。《求是》杂志最新发表的署名文章《扩大内需是战略之举》明确指出，扩大 内需既关系经济稳定，也关系经济安全，不是权宜之计，而是战略之举。文章强调，要加快补上内需特别是消费短板，使内需成为拉动经济增长 的主动力和稳定锚。 【环球网消费综合报道】在"扩大内需"被提升至战略高度的背景下，大消费板块12月16日迎来爆发式行情。商业百货率先领涨，永辉超市、百大 集团（4连板）、欧亚集团、中央商场、广百股份、茂业商业等多股强势涨停，食品饮料、美容护理、旅游酒店等细分领域亦全面走强，市场做多 热情被彻底点燃。 国家发展改革委亦在同刊发表文章，提出要着力释放居民消费潜力，通过提振消费专项行动、消费品以旧换新、稳定和扩大就业、实施城乡居民 增收计划等多措并举，切实增强居民消费能力。此前召开的中央经济工作会议已将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"列为明年首要任务，彰显 了国家层面对提振消费的决心。 除了政策利好驱动，大消费板块自身的吸引力同样不容忽视。经过较长时间的调整，消费股估值已处于历史较低区间，存在显著的技术性反弹需 求。 在板块整体估值偏低和龙头业绩稳健的背景下，一 ...

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午收盘，今日沪指跌1.22%，A股成交量782.45亿股，成交金额11396.19 亿元，比上一个交易日减少4.85%。个股方面，917只个股上涨，其中涨停35只，4467只个股下跌，其 中跌停22只。从申万行业来看，商贸零售、美容护理等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为1.11%、0.86%；有色金 属、综合、电力设备等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为3.52%、3.18%、3.02%。（数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商贸零售 | 1.11 | 360.75 | 50.13 | 永辉超市 | 10.10 | | 美容护理 | 0.86 | 32.62 | 15.33 | 百亚股份 | 4.08 | | 石油石化 | -0.25 | 57.76 | 17.23 | 恒逸石化 | -8.87 | | 食品饮料 | -0.32 | 227.32 | 1.03 | 交大昂立 | -6.38 | | 银行 | -0.37 ...

| 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商贸零售 | 1.85 | 308.27 | 61.38 | 永辉超市 | 10.10 | | 美容护理 | 1.21 | 24.77 | 21.85 | 百亚股份 | 3.73 | | 社会服务 | 0.23 | 74.81 | 30.43 | 中公教育 | 9.92 | | 食品饮料 | -0.18 | 180.17 | -1.44 | 交大昂立 | -5.53 | | 纺织服饰 | -0.28 | 65.88 | -2.50 | 兴业科技 | -5.19 | | 家用电器 | -0.32 | 97.81 | -18.71 | 海立股份 | -3.82 | | 农林牧渔 | -0.39 | 157.05 | -0.35 | 中粮糖业 | -5.41 | | 轻工制造 | -0.46 | 146.07 | -14.36 | 中源家居 | -10.01 | | 非银金融 | -0.47 | 178.60 | -22.24 ...

晨 会 纪 要 [2025]第 230 号 整理记录：聂孟依 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、行业与公司 1、商贸零售行业（聂孟依） 商贸零售板块上周下跌 0.21% 根据 wind，上周，商贸零售报收 2305.32 点，下跌 0.21%，涨幅排名位列申万一级行业 第 12 位，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.13 个百分点；贸易Ⅱ报收 4584.87 点，下跌 3.48%；一般零售 报收 3569.79 点，上涨 1.37%；专业连锁Ⅱ报收 4564.78 点，下跌 1.49%；互联网电商报收 11579.13 点，下跌 0.83%。 根据 wind，从商贸零售板块公司的表现来看，表现居前的公司有：东百集团（+46.2%）、 永辉超市（+27.2%）、百大集团（+24.3%）、南纺股份（+22.3%）、丽人丽妆（+13.4%）； 表现居后的公司有：汇鸿集团（-8.4%）、ST 沪科（-8.4%）、凯淳股份（-9.1%）、海宁皮城 （-9.2%）、广百股份（-10.2%）。 商贸零售板块 PE（ttm）48.75X，PB（lf）1.96X 总体来看，近期消费市场保持平稳增长，消费潜力持续释放，并呈现出显著的结构性 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the consumer sector, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and consumption recovery [1]. Core Insights - The consumer sector experienced a decline across various segments, with notable drops in retail, social services, food and beverage, beauty care, home appliances, and textiles [3]. - High-end liquor, particularly Moutai, is showing signs of bottoming out despite a significant price drop, indicating potential recovery as demand stabilizes [3]. - The central economic work conference highlighted the commitment to boosting domestic consumption, with policies aimed at increasing residents' income and optimizing supply of quality goods and services [3]. - The report suggests focusing on service consumption sectors, which have room for growth compared to developed countries [3]. Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector saw a broad decline, with specific weekly performance metrics indicating negative trends across various sub-sectors [3][5]. - Notable stock performances included significant gains for certain companies, while others faced substantial losses [3][13][14]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - Recent regulatory approvals and policy initiatives are expected to impact various sectors, including tourism and electric vehicles, with a focus on enhancing consumer experiences and market growth [15][16][19]. - Companies like Tim Hortons and others reported positive financial results, indicating resilience in the consumer market despite broader sector challenges [19][20].

Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to experience a "first dip, then rise" pattern next week, presenting a favorable opportunity for positioning before the year-end market [3][13]. Market Analysis - After a high on Monday, the market entered a phase of fluctuation and adjustment, indicating significant investor divergence. The recent developments, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the economic work conference, aligned with expectations, providing more certainty and potentially lowering risk assessments. The upcoming "super central bank week" and Japan's interest rate trends may introduce uncertainties that could temporarily suppress risk evaluations [4][14]. Industry Comparison - From March 2023 to the present, the market has seen a consensus expectation for technology and dividend stocks. The report suggests that the trend of extreme risk styles is nearing its end, with future investment opportunities likely to emerge in mid-cap blue-chip stocks, which are anticipated to rise again after a four-year lull [5][15]. Industry Allocation - Investment opportunities are identified in mid-risk stocks, focusing on three main lines: 1. The consumer sector, which has been dormant for years, is approaching a turning point. Stocks in this sector, such as mid-sized liquor, restaurant supply chains, snacks and beverages, home appliances, hotels, human resources, and beauty care, are expected to rebound due to price corrections and supply constraints [6][16]. 2. The cyclical sector is undergoing a revaluation driven by technological empowerment and supply constraints. Attention is drawn to new materials and strategic minor metals (like antimony and rare earths), as well as industrial metals (copper and aluminum) that are experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics, alongside traditional commodities like live pigs and rubber [6][16]. Thematic Investments - The report highlights several thematic investment areas: - **Aerospace and Satellites**: The sector is gaining strength, with expectations for continued event-driven catalysts, particularly in reusable rockets and accelerated industry IPOs [7][17]. - **Nuclear Fusion**: After a prolonged adjustment, the nuclear fusion sector is beginning to rebound, with anticipated industrial catalysts and a shift from theoretical research to engineering practice, suggesting significant future investment demand [7][17]. - **Consumer Sector**: Recent government initiatives to boost consumption indicate that policies aimed at improving domestic demand may become a central theme in 2026, particularly in service consumption [7][17]. - **Semiconductors**: Anticipated expansions in domestic wafer fabrication and the capitalization of leading domestic storage chip manufacturers present opportunities in domestic chip manufacturers, equipment suppliers, and semiconductor materials [8][18]. - **Upstream Price Increases**: The report notes a continuing trend of price increases in the short term, with structural growth in demand and supply constraints providing upward price elasticity for related commodities, particularly in non-ferrous metals, new energy upstream, and chemicals [8][17].