金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：关税战再起，避险刺激接力；白银：关注海外逼仓情况 强弱分析：黄金偏强、白银偏强 价格区间：870-930元/克、10500-11590元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升2.29%，伦敦银回升6.63%。金银比从前周的82.2回落至79.1，10年期TIPS回落至1.75%，10年期名义利率回落至4.05%（2 年期3.52%），美元指数录得98.82。 ◆ 假期后沪金高开，最高达到921元/克，继续创出历史新高。从驱动来看，假期间海外事件扰动不断，首先是美国政府关门事件，由于两党法案 没能达成一致导致美国政府出现7年来首次被迫关门。此外，欧洲时区对黄金的买兴同样热情，法国 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年10月09日16时30分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡上行，沪金主力收涨4.82%，沪银主力收涨2.22%。①核心逻辑，短期避险方面，贸易战与美国政府停摆风险上 升；美国经济滞涨风险增加，就业走弱通胀温和，联储降息预期开始兑现。②避险属性方面，美国政府关门、法国总理辞职等事 件，加剧市场不确定性。俄乌、中东等地缘异动仍存。③货币属性方面，美联储降息25个基点并暗示将进一步下调利率。9月ADP 就业减少3.2万人，大幅低于市场预期的新增5.1万人。美联储最新认为就业市场风险上升，仍对通胀保持警惕。美国PCE通胀数据 符合预期，加强了美联储今年晚些时候可能继续降息的押注。目前市场预期美联储10月降息25基点概率维持90%附近，且年内降 息次数预期仍有2次左右。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币升值利空国内价格 。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏强，中长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 黄金相关数据： | | 数据类别 | 指标 | ...

Core Insights - The gold and silver markets are experiencing significant upward momentum, with gold reaching an all-time high of $3,919 per ounce and silver rising nearly 70% year-to-date as of October 1, 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Key Drivers for Gold - Gold's price surge is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors, including U.S. inflation data and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 95% probability of a rate cut in October [4][5]. - The weakening U.S. dollar and political uncertainties, such as the government shutdown, are contributing to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Russia and NATO, are further supporting gold's safe-haven demand [6]. Group 2: Key Drivers for Silver - Silver's performance is bolstered by strong industrial demand, which constitutes 58% of total global demand, and persistent supply bottlenecks [7]. - The gold-silver ratio remains elevated at around 86, indicating potential for silver to narrow the valuation gap with gold as investors seek more affordable alternatives [7]. - China's commitment to reducing carbon emissions is expected to enhance the adoption of solar technologies, increasing silver demand [7]. Group 3: Signs Supporting a Solid Bull Run - The current rally in precious metals is supported by structural drivers, including the Fed's dovish monetary policy and strong central bank demand for gold, with 95% of central banks planning to increase their gold holdings [8]. - The geopolitical landscape and the U.S. government shutdown are reinforcing the role of precious metals as hedges against currency volatility [8]. Group 4: Factors Suggesting Bubble Risks - Despite strong macroeconomic support, the rapid price increases in gold and silver raise concerns about potential market overheating and speculative participation [9][10]. - The gold-silver ratio being above its long-term average suggests that silver's relative outperformance could overshoot, increasing vulnerability to sentiment shifts [9]. Group 5: Conclusion - The current rally is characterized as a solid bull run driven by macro fundamentals, although there is a risk of short-term corrections due to overbought conditions and sensitivity to monetary policy changes [11]. - Monitoring key economic and political events is essential for understanding the trajectory of precious metals [11].

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 数据 | | 本周收盘价 | 周涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪银2512 | 10,632 | 6.63% | 4380 | -1.68% | | 白银T+D | 10,551 | 6.15% | 4351 | -1.98% | | Comex白银2512 | 46.365 | 6.92% | - | - | | 伦敦银现货 沪金2512 | 46.032 856.06 | 6.90% 3.07% | - 388.30 | - -0.49% | | 黄金T+D Comex黄金2512 | 852.90 3,789.8 | 3.26% 1.89% | 386.86 - | -0.64% - | | 伦敦金现货 | 3,758.8 | 2.01% | - | - | | 【期货成交及持仓变动】 | | | | | | 单位：手 | 本周成交 | 较前周变动 | 本周持仓 | 较前周变动 | | 沪银2512 | 802,586 | 333367 | 544,232 | 110250 | ...

Group 1 - The domestic precious metals market showed a positive trend on September 22, with both gold and silver futures prices increasing [1] - The main contract for gold (沪金) closed at 840.80 CNY per gram, reflecting a rise of 1.33%, while the main contract for silver (沪银) closed at 10,270.00 CNY per kilogram, with a gain of 3.34% [1] - The opening prices for gold and silver futures were 831.02 CNY per gram and 9,971.00 CNY per kilogram, respectively, with previous closing prices of 830.56 CNY and 9,971.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - As of September 19, the silver futures warehouse receipts totaled 1,159,443 kilograms, a decrease of 44,080 kilograms compared to the previous trading day, while gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 999 kilograms to 57,429 kilograms [3] - There were no instances of "backwardation" (where spot prices exceed futures prices) reported for any commodity contracts as of September 19 [3] - The basis for gold was calculated at -2.3 with a basis rate of -0.28%, while the basis for silver was -93 with a basis rate of -0.94% [3]

Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：关注下周FOMC；白银：突破上涨 强弱分析：黄金中性、白银偏强 价格区间：820-840元/克、9700-10300元/千克 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 400 5400 10400 15400 20400 25400 14-03 14-07 14-11 15-03 15-07 15-11 16-03 16-07 16-11 17-03 17-07 17-11 18-03 18-07 18-11 19-03 19-07 19-11 20-03 20-07 20-11 21-03 21-07 21-11 22-03 22-07 22-11 23-03 23-07 23-11 24-03 24-07 24-11 25-03 25-07 吨 SLV:白银ETF:持仓量(吨) 期货收盘价(活跃合约):COMEX银 美元/盎司 1600 2100 2600 3100 3600 410 ...

宽松预期持续巩固 贵金属价格高位震荡 贵金属日报 | 2025-09-10 2025-09-09，美国10年期国债利率收于4.088%，较前一交易日-0.19BP，10年期与2年期利差为0.525%，较前一交易 日变化-0.4BP。 上期所金银持仓与成交量变化情况： 2025-09-09，Au2508合约上，多头较前一日变化314手，空头则是变化257手。沪金合约上个交易日总成交量为470523 手，较前一交易日变化6.97%。在沪银方面，在Ag2508合约上，多头变动2手，空头变动-2手。白银合约上个交易 日总成交量1067357手，较前一交易日变化-24.09%。 贵金属ETF持仓跟踪： 市场分析 贵金属ETF方面，昨日黄金ETF持仓为979.68吨，较前一交易日下降-2.29吨。白银ETF持仓为15069.6吨，较前一交 易日-67.78吨。 关税方面，美国和韩国就一项3500亿美元投资基金的细节问题陷入僵局，该基金是两国更广泛贸易协议的一部分。 韩方一直向美方强调，不能接受与日本5500亿美元投资承诺相同的条款；日本经济再生担当相赤泽亮正表示，美 国特朗普政府对日下调汽车关税以及减轻"对等关税"负担的 ...

Group 1 - International precious metal futures experienced a general decline on September 4, with COMEX gold futures falling by 0.91% to $3602.40 per ounce [1] - COMEX silver futures decreased by 1.77%, settling at $41.32 per ounce [1]

Group 1 - International precious metals futures experienced a general increase on September 1, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.84% to $3545.8 per ounce [1] - COMEX silver futures saw a significant increase of 2.46%, reaching $41.725 per ounce [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent increase in gold and silver prices, driven by technical buying and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - On August 28, 2025, the most actively traded gold futures price rose by $25.1, closing at $3,476.9 per ounce, marking a 0.73% increase and reaching a high of $3,478.7, the highest since August 11 [1] - The U.S. second quarter GDP growth rate was revised to 3.3%, up by 0.3 percentage points from the initial estimate, while the first quarter saw a decline of 0.5% [1] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.43% to close at 97.814, which positively impacted gold prices [1] - Analysts noted that the current gold price is supported by expectations of a rate cut in September, which would lower financing costs and boost demand for gold [1] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and rising debt levels are expected to continue driving gold prices upward, as reflected in the current spread between 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, which is around 60 basis points, close to the highest level since January 2022 [1]