（原标题：天齐锂业蒋安琪：行业供需格局改善将助力破除同质化竞争） 经济观察网 11月25日，锂盐生产头部企业、天齐锂业董事长蒋安琪在第二届中国国际锂业大会致辞演 讲中表示，随着行业供需格局的改善，将助力产业链破除同质化竞争。 固态电池的技术路线、商业前景也是本次大会被热议的话题。在"锂问未来——锂产业战略高层访谈"环 节中，天齐锂业研究院院长刘杨、厦门大学化学化工学院南强特聘教授杨勇、五矿新能源材料（湖南） 股份有限公司前沿材料研究中心总监白立熊、Minviro公司总监Phoebe Whattoff等来自学界、产业界的 专家一起讨论了固态电池从技术路线到商业化前景的多个热点议题，在深入探讨其技术路径与规模化前 景的同时，重点探寻了产业化瓶颈、固态电池安全性以及控制成本加速市场应用的破局关键。 当前，固态电池核心材料固态电解质主要技术路线分为三大类：硫化物基电解质、氧化物基电解质和聚 合物基电解质，它们是固态电池区别于传统液态锂电池的关键，其中硫化物基因其能量密度潜力大、高 导电率、界面接触好而被众多厂商青睐，产业界也持续进行技术和工艺攻关，克服该类材料成本高、加 工过程复杂的弱点。选用这一技术路线的天齐锂业， ...

| | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | 2601合约（收盘价） | | 90,480 | -540 | -4,720 | 3,240 | 10,540 | 5,740 | | 2601合约（成交量） | | 454,612 | -683,212 | -912,307 | -531,957 | -36,308 | 291,552 | | 2601合约（持仓量） | | 365,078 | -46,249 | -197,876 | -169,405 | -54,069 | 237,197 | | 盘 面 | 2605合 ...

2025-11-24，碳酸锂主力合约2601开于91820元/吨，收于90480元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-2.88%。当日 成交量为454612手，持仓量为365078手，前一交易日持仓量411327手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为1690元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单26510手，较上个交易日变化-338手。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-25 市场情绪降温，碳酸锂继续减仓 市场分析 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价89800-94500元/吨，较前一交易日变化-150元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价88300-91200元/吨，较前一交易日变化-150元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1130美元/吨，较前一日变化-40美元/吨。据 SMM数据，碳酸锂期货价格区间震荡，主力合约目前处于9万至9.29万元/吨的区间。在此背景下，下游材料厂采 购意愿有所提升，逐步开启补库节奏，带动市场成交氛围趋于活跃。目前，上下游企业正在就明年的长期协议进 行谈判，现阶段主要围绕系数展开博弈。供应端来看，锂盐厂整体开工率保持高位运行，其中锂辉石端与盐湖端 为供应主力。预计11月国内碳酸锂产量可以 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Low inventory and demand resilience support prices, but increased production, expectations of mine复产, and exchange announcements limit the upside potential. Volatility has significantly increased, and the short - term will continue in a long - short game pattern [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoint Summary - Low inventory and demand resilience support prices, but production increases, mine复产 expectations, and exchange announcements suppress the upside space, with increased volatility and a short - term long - short game pattern [12]. 3.2 Balance Sheet 3.2.1 Global Balance Sheet - From 2018 - 2025E, global lithium demand has been growing, with the global effective lithium demand total increasing from 25.4 million tons LCE in 2018 to 142.3 million tons LCE in 2025E. The growth rate (yoy) has fluctuated, reaching a maximum of 50% in 2021. Global lithium supply has also been increasing, with the global effective lithium supply total rising from 30.9 million tons LCE in 2018 to 165.0 million tons LCE in 2025E. The growth rate (yoy) was highest at 45% in 2024. The global effective lithium supply has generally been in a state of surplus, with a surplus of 22.7 million tons LCE in 2025E, accounting for 16% of the total demand [15]. 3.2.2 Domestic Balance Sheet - In 2024 - 2025E, the domestic supply and demand of lithium carbonate have been in a state of imbalance. In November 2025E, the total supply of lithium carbonate was estimated to be 115,830 tons, and the total demand was 128,725 tons, with a supply - demand gap of - 12,895 tons. The import volume has been relatively large, and the export volume has been small. The production of lithium carbonate has also been increasing [16]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply and Demand - In October, the estimated total supply of lithium carbonate was 115,895 tons, and the total demand was 124,642 tons, with a supply - demand gap of - 8,747 tons. In November, the estimated total supply was 115,830 tons, and the total demand was 128,725 tons, with a supply - demand gap of - 12,895 tons [10]. - The weekly output was 22,130 tons (a week - on - week increase of 585 tons), and the expectation of the resumption of production at the Jiangxi Ningde mine has increased, leading to a marginal increase in supply pressure [12]. 3.3.2 Inventory - SMM data shows that the monthly inventory in October was 84,234 physical tons, including 53,291 physical tons of downstream inventory and 30,943 physical tons of smelter inventory. This week's SMM weekly inventory was 118,420 physical tons, including 26,104 physical tons of smelter inventory, 44,436 physical tons of cathode factory inventory, and 47,880 physical tons of battery and trader inventory [10][75]. - The weekly inventory was 118,420 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 2,052 tons), with 14 consecutive weeks of de - stocking and a cumulative reduction of 26,000 tons. The inventory days have dropped below 30 days, and the supply - demand structure remains tight [12]. 3.3.3 Price - On November 21, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8.40%, the futures price was 91,020 yuan/ton, and the basis was 1,280 yuan/ton [10][83].

（来源：SMM新能源） 需求端则展现出强劲动力，动力电池领域受益于新能源汽车商用与乘用市场的同步快速增长，而储能市 场延续供需两旺格局，供应持续偏紧，共同为碳酸锂消费提供有力支撑。 市场成交方面，下游材料厂对价格快速上涨持谨慎态度，采购以刚需为主，市场整体成交清淡。目前， 产业链上下游企业正在就明年的长期协议进行谈判，双方主要围绕定价系数展开博弈，这也增加了市场 的观望气氛。 展望后市，下游电芯及正极材料企业在11月的排产计划持续向好，预计碳酸锂库存将继续呈现较大幅度 去化。在供需基本面改善、持续去库预期与市场看涨情绪的共同支撑下，短期碳酸锂价格有望维持偏强 震荡格局。 价格方面，现货市场呈现持续上行态势。SMM电池级碳酸锂均价从周初的8.615万元/吨稳步上涨至9.13 万元/吨，工业级碳酸锂均价也从8.38万元/吨攀升至8.89万元/吨，累计涨幅显著。期货市场主力合约在 周初触及9.52万元/吨的涨停板后继续冲高，一度触及10.25万元/吨关口，盘面看涨情绪积极，资金持续 涌入放大涨幅。 供应方面，锂盐厂整体开工率保持高位运行，其中锂辉石端与盐湖端为供应主力。预计11月国内碳酸锂 产量可以维持10月的生产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to multiple factors, including market sentiment, policy adjustments, and demand expectations for the electric vehicle sector [6][7][10]. Market Overview - On November 21, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the limit down, with a drop of 9%, closing at 91,020 yuan/ton [2]. - Spot prices also fell significantly, with battery-grade lithium carbonate at 92,900 yuan/ton, down 2,500 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Trading Volume and Positioning - Trading volume for the main lithium carbonate futures contract decreased to 1,595,600 lots, while open interest fell by 23,500 lots to 479,600 lots, indicating a strong willingness among investors to liquidate positions at high levels [4]. Policy Adjustments - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced adjustments to trading fees and limits for lithium carbonate futures contracts, effective November 24, 2025, which may have contributed to the cooling market sentiment [5][7]. Supply Side Analysis - The supply of lithium remains tight, with processing fees for lithium salts at low levels (18,000-19,000 yuan/ton) due to fierce competition among producers [8]. - Current production rates are not expected to increase significantly, as lithium salt plants are operating at nearly full capacity [8]. Demand Side Analysis - Demand for lithium carbonate has been strong, particularly in the energy storage sector, with expectations for global energy storage shipments to reach 560 GWh this year and 780 GWh next year, reflecting a 40% year-on-year growth [9]. - However, concerns about potential demand weakness in the first quarter of next year due to earlier demand pull-forward have emerged [10]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of a potential decline in demand for electric vehicles due to subsidy reductions in China [10]. - Analysts suggest that while the current supply-demand balance is tight, any recovery in production from key lithium mines could lead to a more relaxed supply situation in December [17][18].

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market showed slight recovery on November 20, with the non-ferrous sector opening high and fluctuating, as evidenced by the significant trading volume of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) which rose by 0.52% and reached a trading volume of over 90 million yuan [1] - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF index components mostly surged, with Zhongkuang Resources rising over 5%, while other stocks like Northern Rare Earth and Huayou Cobalt also saw gains exceeding 1% [3] Group 2: Lithium Market Dynamics - On November 19, lithium carbonate futures prices broke through 100,000 yuan/ton, indicating a clear recovery in spot lithium carbonate prices. Ganfeng Lithium's chairman stated that if demand growth exceeds 30% to 40% next year, prices could potentially exceed 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton due to supply constraints [2] Group 3: Supply Chain and Pricing Trends - The supply chain for non-ferrous metals is facing disruptions, with several large mines experiencing operational issues, which highlights the vulnerability of global non-ferrous resource supply [6] - The copper market is expected to see average prices reach 4.55 USD per pound by 2026 due to supply concerns stemming from accidents at major mines [5] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed other industries this year, with a year-to-date increase of 79% for the CITIC non-ferrous metals index, significantly leading other sectors [5] - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted for its high "gold-copper content" of 46%, making it a leading choice among similar investment products [12] Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategic Considerations - The geopolitical landscape and resource security concerns are expected to drive demand for strategic commodities, with a notable increase in green demand for copper and aluminum anticipated by 2030 [8] - The ongoing industrialization in emerging economies and the reshaping of trade patterns are likely to provide new growth opportunities for commodity demand, particularly in countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [9]

11月20日，盐湖股份涨5.23%，截至发稿，报29.20元/股，成交17.76亿元，换手率1.18%，总市值 1545.14亿元。 资料显示，青海盐湖工业股份有限公司位于青海省格尔木市黄河路28号，成立日期1997年8月25日，上 市日期1997年9月4日，公司主营业务涉及钾肥和锂盐的开发、生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：钾产 品79.16%，锂产品18.32%，其他2.40%，贸易0.12%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，东财基金旗下1只基金重仓盐湖股份。东财中证化工指数发起式A（019589）三季度增持 15.74万股，持有股数19.69万股，占基金净值比例为5.97%，位居第二大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈 赚取约28.55万元。 东财中证化工指数发起式A（019589）基金经理为姚楠燕。 截至发稿，姚楠燕累计任职时间5年249天，现任基金资产总规模51.19亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 119.35%， 任职期间最差基金回报-57.11%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate price is rising, prompting major industry players to engage in significant agreements, such as the one between Shengxin Lithium Energy and Huayou Holding Group, which involves a supply of 221,400 tons of lithium salt products over five years, valued at approximately 21.994 billion yuan based on current futures prices [1][2][6]. Group 1: Agreement Details - Shengxin Lithium Energy signed a cooperation framework agreement with Huayou Holding Group to supply 221,400 tons of lithium salt products from 2026 to 2030 [4][5]. - The agreement is mutually beneficial, allowing Shengxin Lithium Energy to expand its market and secure a quality customer, while Huayou Holding Group ensures a stable supply of lithium salt [3][6]. - The agreement includes a pricing clause that ensures the price for Huayou Holding Group will not exceed that of similar products sold to other customers [7]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The total value of the agreement is estimated to exceed 21.994 billion yuan, based on current lithium carbonate futures prices [2][6]. - The agreement is expected to enhance the operational stability and sustainability of Shengxin Lithium Energy by securing long-term partnerships with quality customers [6][11]. - Shengxin Lithium Energy's financial situation has been under pressure due to previous acquisitions, with a debt ratio of 50.34% as of September 2025 [9]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships - The agreement is part of a broader strategy where Huayou Holding Group and another major player, Zhongchuang Xinhang, are investing in Shengxin Lithium Energy, each acquiring over 5% of the company [10][11]. - This strategic investment aims to alleviate Shengxin Lithium Energy's financial pressures and create synergies between the companies involved [11].

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯盐湖股份11月19日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，目前，4万吨锂盐项目整体运行平 稳，效能提升态势良好，日产量达60—70吨，纯度稳定在99.7%以上，装置连续无故障运行。公司本年 度碳酸锂生产计划为3000吨，从当前进展来看，该目标有望超额完成。 ...