证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 食品饮料 食品饮料 报告日期：2026 年 03 月 04 日 春节茅台量价齐升，餐供/礼盒/功能饮料表现居前 ——2026 年春节食品饮料板块表现总结 投资要点 ❑ 消费背景：出行热延续，消费市场回暖。受 2026 年春节超长假期带动，居民出 行意愿持续增强，跨区域人员流动保持较快增长，消费需求呈现稳中向好态势。 交通运输部数据显示，自春运启动至正月初七，全社会跨区域人员流动量累计近 58 亿人次，彰显出强劲的流动活力。在家庭团聚与出行需求双重推动下，餐饮 消费持续活跃，旅游市场升温明显，消费市场整体呈现稳步复苏、活力回升的良 好格局。 ❑ 子板块情况 【白酒板块】春节白酒仍承压，高端&中低价位大众消费表现优秀。受消费场景 结构变动（商政务消费仍偏弱，大众消费表现积极）&消费群体追求"高性价 比"等因素影响，26 年春节消费市场呈现"需求两头好中间弱，品牌酒企集中 度仍提升"、"消费需求理性（降级/升级同时存在）"、"消费结构变动导致整体价 位下探"、"渠道碎片化（线上/即时零售等渠道表现积极）"等特点，其中贵州茅 台/五粮液成为行业"压舱石"，呈现"量价齐升"态势，除此外， ...

Group 1 - In 2026, China is expected to return to the "value investment year" of 2019, driven by strong cash flow from manufacturing and consumption sectors, which will attract value investors again [1][13] - The foundation of Buffett's "value investment" is stable cash flow from "big DCF assets," which are characterized by low capital expenditures and high cash flow [2][14] - China's large refining sector possesses a global competitive advantage and is also a stable cash flow "big DCF asset," benefiting from the appreciation of the RMB and increased export capabilities [3][15] Group 2 - The chemical industry, particularly segments like fluorochemicals, synthetic resins, and plastics, has seen a significant recovery in free cash flow, with many sectors recovering to historical percentiles above 60% and some above 90% [5][17] - The large refining sector is anticipated to experience a "Buffett moment" in 2026, coinciding with a potential global oil price supercycle as geopolitical tensions ease [4][16] - The investment logic for Zijin Mining includes short-term supply concerns due to production halts at major copper mines, leading to potential price increases [21] - For Luoyang Molybdenum, the investment rationale is based on rising copper and gold prices, with a clear growth path through acquisitions and capacity upgrades [25][26] - Nanjing Steel's strategy focuses on resource integration and creating a stable return on equity through a comprehensive industrial chain [29][30] - Xinhua Insurance is positioned to benefit from strong investment returns due to its high equity elasticity and stable premium inflows [33][34] - Guobang Pharmaceutical is expected to see profit elasticity due to the clearing of excess production capacity in the animal health sector and a rebound in antibiotic demand [37][39] - Enjie Technology is set to improve its market position through cost reduction and product innovation in the lithium battery separator market [43][44] - Haiguang Information aims to expand its market share through AI infrastructure investments and new product launches [47][48] - Nanya New Materials is positioned for growth with innovative formulations and high-end product recognition in the electronic materials sector [50][51] - Xirui, a leader in the private jet market, is expected to benefit from increasing demand and improved delivery capabilities [55][57] - Yihai International is likely to see performance elasticity from product price increases and improved operational metrics [61][64] - Juxing Technology is expected to maintain steady growth through its leading position in hand tools and electric tools, supported by a healthy demand recovery [65][68] - Gobi Jia, focusing on special glass products, is set to benefit from increased demand in the semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors [69][72]

Group 1 - Southbound funds increased their holdings in China Silicon Corporation (01735.HK) by 199,000 shares on February 23 [1] - Over the past five trading days, there were four days of net increases in holdings by southbound funds, totaling 6.107 million shares [1] - In the last 20 trading days, there were 14 days of net increases, amounting to 19.51 million shares [1] - Currently, southbound funds hold 15.6 million shares of China Silicon Corporation, representing 3.67% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Group 2 - China Silicon Corporation, formerly known as China Holdings Group Limited, primarily engages in renewable energy and engineering, procurement, and construction businesses [2] - The company operates through five business segments, including renewable energy and engineering, green building and related services, health and medical services, food supply chain services, and smart energy management services [2] - The renewable energy and engineering segment focuses on the production and sales of photovoltaic products, while the green building segment provides construction and property management services [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that southbound funds have increased their holdings in China National Nuclear Corporation (01735.HK) by 2.219 million shares on February 13, with a total net increase of 10.05 million shares over the past five trading days [1] - Over the last 20 trading days, southbound funds have increased their holdings on 14 days, resulting in a cumulative net increase of 20.765 million shares [1] - As of now, southbound funds hold 154 million shares of China National Nuclear Corporation, accounting for 3.64% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Group 2 - China National Nuclear Corporation is primarily engaged in the renewable energy and engineering, procurement, and construction business [1] - The company operates through five business segments, including renewable energy and engineering, green building and related services, health and medical services, food supply chain services, and smart energy management services [1] - The renewable energy and engineering segment focuses on the production and sales of photovoltaic products, while the green building segment provides construction and property management services [1]

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant supply chain sector is showing significant signs of recovery, with expectations for substantial sales improvement in 2026 due to a combination of marginal recovery, the timing of the Spring Festival, and low base effects [1] Group 1: Industry Recovery Signals - The restaurant industry's recovery is indicated by a rise in revenue growth, with Q4 2025 restaurant income growth accelerating to 3.0%, up from 1.6 percentage points in Q3 2025, suggesting improved consumer demand [2] - The introduction of new products and channels is expected to drive growth, with companies innovating and expanding into overseas markets [2] - The competitive landscape is stabilizing, with price competition diminishing and some companies beginning to cut costs to improve profitability, supported by a recovering Consumer Price Index (CPI) [2] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The condiment sector is expected to benefit from improved restaurant channel dynamics, with price signals showing positive trends as retail prices for soy sauce have started to recover [3] - The frozen food sector is anticipated to reach a turning point in 2026, characterized by reduced competition and demand recovery, with a clear expectation that the price war will lose its effectiveness [4] - The light meal chain sector has stabilized after a period of store closures, with expectations for steady store numbers in 2026 and early signs of success in exploring new growth avenues [5]

Core Viewpoint - Southbound funds have increased their holdings in China Silicon Corporation (01735.HK) by 2.597 million shares on February 11, indicating a positive trend in investor sentiment towards the company [1] Group 1: Southbound Fund Activity - Over the past five trading days, southbound funds have increased their holdings on four occasions, with a total net increase of 8.277 million shares [1] - In the last twenty trading days, there have been fifteen days of net increases, totaling 21.701 million shares [1] - Currently, southbound funds hold 15.2 million shares of China Silicon Corporation, representing 3.59% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Group 2: Company Overview - China Silicon Corporation, formerly known as China Silicon Holdings Group Limited, is primarily engaged in the renewable energy and engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) business [1] - The company operates through five business segments, including renewable energy and engineering, green building and related services, health and medical services, food supply chain services, and smart energy management services [1] - The renewable energy and engineering segment focuses on the production and sales of photovoltaic products, while the green building segment provides construction and property management services [1]

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，受2025Q4春节错峰不利影响，2025Q4大众品基本面预计环 比走弱，若抛开春节季节性影响仅观察9~11月，大众品行业需求有企稳迹象。成本费用端看，多数原 材料成本红利延续但有所收窄，行业竞争虽然维持较高强度但边际已经趋缓。餐供板块是大众品板块中 少有的25Q4基本面环比Q3改善的，主要受益经销商补库以及竞争缓和。 饮料：行业竞争激烈，企业表现分化。 餐饮供应链：2025Q4需求平淡但细分赛道表现亮眼。 2025Q4下游餐饮景气度整体平淡，但可观察到部分细分赛道(例如火锅)受旺季影响有所改善，且由于春 节错期基数影响，预计各企业收入端表现分化。盈利端，预计25Q4猪肉、面粉、白糖等多数原料价格 维持偏低位震荡，但已有油脂、进口乳制品等价格上涨，此外行业价格战失效逐渐成为共识，竞争趋缓 可期。 零食：2025Q4零食板块基本面环比走弱，2026Q1受益春节备货有望环比走高。 25Q4因春节错峰不利影响、新品类及新渠道成长红利走弱以及部分原料成本高企，预计零食板块单季 度基本面环比走弱。考虑到2026Q1春节零食礼盒备货驱动以及部分原料成本高位走低，预计零食板块 基本面环 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that southbound funds have increased their holdings in China National Nuclear Corporation (01735.HK) by 5.083 million shares on February 9, 2026, with a total of 14.9 million shares held, accounting for 3.53% of the company's issued ordinary shares [1][2] - Over the past 5 trading days, there were 2 days of net increases in holdings by southbound funds, totaling 4.819 million shares [1][2] - In the last 20 trading days, there were 15 days of net increases, with a cumulative net increase of 20.182 million shares [1][2] Group 2 - China National Nuclear Corporation operates primarily in the renewable energy and engineering, procurement, and construction sectors, with five business segments [2] - The renewable energy and engineering segment focuses on the production and sales of photovoltaic products, as well as engineering, procurement, and construction services [2] - The company also engages in green building, healthcare consulting, food supply chain services, and smart energy management services [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has shown a cumulative increase of 4.48% this week, with A-shares rising by 4.44%, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 5.77 percentage points [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing differentiation in the fundamentals of various categories, with liquor outperforming food and beverages [2]. - Key investment recommendations include leading companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao in the liquor segment, as well as Yili in dairy and Nongfu Spring in beverages [2][3]. Summary by Sections Liquor - The report notes a gradual increase in sales leading up to the Spring Festival, with Kweichow Moutai performing particularly well. It suggests that the overall decline in sales is expected to narrow to around 10% during the festive period [10]. - Investment recommendations include Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, with a focus on their growth potential and market recovery [10][11]. Beer - The beer industry is experiencing healthy inventory levels, with expectations for demand recovery. The report recommends Yanjing Beer and China Resources Beer as key players to watch [11]. Snacks - The report emphasizes the importance of strong alpha stocks in the snack category, particularly focusing on the growth potential of konjac snacks. Leading companies like Wei Long and Yan Jin Pu Zi are highlighted for their innovative product offerings [12][18]. Dairy - The dairy sector is seeing orderly preparations for the Spring Festival, with a recommendation for Yili as a leading company with a favorable valuation margin. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in demand and a potential balance in supply and demand by mid-2026 [14]. Beverages - The beverage segment is primarily focused on inventory reduction during the off-season, with stable preparations for the Spring Festival. The report continues to recommend Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage for their growth strategies [15]. Supply Chain - The report discusses the public consultation on national standards for prepared dishes, which may accelerate the clearing of inefficient suppliers in the industry. Recommendations include leading companies like Yihai International and Haidilao [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][18] Core Views - The food and beverage sector is expected to perform well in 2026, driven by several key themes including cost benefits, efficiency improvements, innovation, and potential recovery opportunities in the liquor segment [3][10][11] - The report highlights the ongoing differentiation in the fundamentals of various categories, with liquor outperforming food and beverages [2][10] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor - The report indicates that the sales of liquor, particularly high-end brands like Moutai, are showing positive trends as the Spring Festival approaches, with Moutai expected to see double-digit growth [2][10] - Investment recommendations include Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, with a focus on brands that are gaining market share despite overall market challenges [2][10][11] Beer - The beer industry is currently managing inventory well and is poised for recovery as demand is expected to improve [11] - Recommended companies include Yanjing Beer and China Resources Beer, which are seen as strong players in the market [11] Snacks - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the snack sector, particularly those involved in konjac products, which are expected to continue their growth trajectory [12][18] - Key players in this segment include Weidong and Yanjinpuzi, which are noted for their innovative product offerings [12][18] Prepared Dishes - The report discusses the public consultation on national standards for prepared dishes, which may lead to a clearer industry structure and the elimination of less compliant players [13][14] - Recommended companies in this space include Yihai International and Haidilao, which are expected to benefit from improved compliance and operational efficiency [13][14] Dairy Products - The dairy sector is experiencing a steady recovery, with a focus on leading companies like Yili, which are expected to benefit from improved margins and reduced inventory pressures [14][15] - The report suggests that the demand for dairy products will continue to improve, particularly in the second half of 2026 [14][15] Beverages - The beverage sector is currently in a seasonal inventory reduction phase, with stable preparations for the Spring Festival [15] - Companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage are highlighted for their strong operational performance and market expansion strategies [15][16]