证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 07 月 13 日 白酒逢低配置龙头，食品关注结构性机遇 食品饮料中报前瞻暨板块最新观点 消费品/食品饮料 随着市场风偏逐步提升，食品饮料行业整体估值水位有望得到修复。从 25Q2 各细分板块情况来看，白酒侧淡季叠加行业遭遇"禁酒令冲击"，需求短期阶 段性下滑，高端白酒价格整体承压，宴席与大众消费场景相对平稳。预计多数 酒企进入调整阶段，考虑到企业调整节奏存在差异，建议关注三季报报表检验 期，超跌逢低配置估值安全边际足的头部酒企。食品侧 Q2 需求延续恢复态势， 饮料、休闲食品、宠物食品板块 Q2 整体景气度向上，啤酒、连锁&餐饮供应链 关注结构性增长机遇，保健品中长期渗透率提升趋势延续，乳制品、调味品仍 在恢复过程中，期待下半年需求改善。 推荐（维持） 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -3.2 11.9 35.0 相对表现 -6.3 4.4 19.3 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Jul/24 Nov/24 Feb/25 Jun/25 (%) 食品饮料 沪深300 相关报告 1、《食品饮料行业周报（7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The demand for consumer goods remains weak in Q2 2025, with limited improvement on a month-over-month basis. The raw material costs for consumer goods companies are mostly at the bottom or in a downward trend, but competition in the industry remains intense, leading to minimal improvement in profitability [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The consumer goods sector is experiencing increased competition, particularly in beverages, where promotional activities are intensifying [1] - There is a noticeable divergence in growth among snack companies, indicating varying performance within the sector [1] - The dairy and catering supply chain segments are facing pressure on both demand and pricing [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The snack sector, characterized by new consumption trends, is identified as having the most potential for investment [1] - Within the beverage sector, tea drinks and functional beverages are expected to maintain high levels of prosperity [1] - The dairy sector shows signs of clear improvement from a profitability bottom [1]

Group 1 - The core issue for Tianye Co., Ltd. is the disciplinary action taken by the exchange due to violations in information disclosure, specifically the failure to timely disclose performance revision announcements and earnings forecasts [1][5] - The company reported significant internal control deficiencies, which were highlighted in the audit report by Zhongxinghua Accounting Firm, leading to a qualified opinion on the financial statements and a negative opinion on internal controls [3][6] - In the 2024 financial report, Tianye Co., Ltd. revised its revenue to 494 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.34%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 71.07% to 9.65 million yuan [3][4] Group 2 - Tianye Co., Ltd. was established in 2007 and specializes in the research, production, and sales of tropical fruit and vegetable products, including raw juice and frozen fruits and vegetables [2] - The company has established partnerships with well-known brands in the food and beverage industry, serving as a major supplier for companies like Nayuki, Tea Baidao, and Coca-Cola [2] - The company is actively working to address the internal control issues and has initiated self-evaluation procedures to rectify the identified deficiencies [6]

Core Insights - The report indicates a stabilization in food and beverage demand, with signs of recovery becoming increasingly clear [1] - The core conclusion emphasizes a transition between old and new market dynamics, prioritizing market share [4] Industry Review - The food and beverage industry faced pressure in Q2 due to seasonal consumption declines and policy impacts, with significant differentiation among segments. Notably, the liquor and beer sectors were most affected, while beverages and snacks continued to show good growth [6] - Alcoholic beverages, particularly high-end liquor, are undergoing adjustments due to policy changes, while lower-alcohol options are experiencing growth. The report suggests monitoring long-term trading opportunities in the liquor sector [6][12] - The beverage sector remains robust, with double-digit growth expected in categories like electrolyte water and coconut water. The report highlights the upcoming IPO of a coconut water brand, projecting an 80% revenue growth for 2024 [6] - The snack industry is transitioning from channel expansion to category-driven growth, with strong momentum expected to continue into 2026 [6] - The restaurant supply chain is experiencing weak demand, but signs of stabilization are emerging, particularly in basic condiments and frozen prepared foods [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors sensitive to policy changes, such as liquor, beer, and dairy products, with specific stock picks including Guizhou Moutai and Yanjing Beer [6] - It suggests selecting strong individual stocks with clear market share gains or strong earnings certainty, such as Dongpeng Beverage and Haitian Flavoring [6] - High dividend yields are highlighted as a significant safety net in the current weak market environment, with Chongqing Beer being a notable example [6] Liquor Sector Analysis - The liquor index has underperformed the broader market, with a 12% decline year-to-date, primarily due to weakening consumer demand and increased competition [12] - The report notes that the performance of individual liquor stocks has diverged, with some brands gaining market share while others struggle [13] - Guizhou Moutai's price has seen a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop exceeding 20%, impacting overall sector valuations [12][19] Profitability Forecasts - The report anticipates that many companies will struggle to meet their growth targets in 2025, with a general downward revision of revenue growth expectations [44] - It highlights that the external environment remains uncertain, putting pressure on demand, and companies are focusing on inventory reduction and sales promotion [45]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年07月07日 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 吴康辉 S0630525060001 wkh@longone.com.cn -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 食品饮料(申万) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] [Table_NewTitle 重视新品类和新渠道下的α机会 ] ——食品饮料行业周报（2025/6/30-2025/7/6） 超配 [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 风险提示：宏观经济增长不及预期；竞争加剧的影响；食品安全的影响。 行 业 研 究 食 品 饮 料 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 周 报 [table_invest] 1.政策纠偏情绪修复，聚焦供需改善 方 向 — — 食 品 饮 料 行 业 周 报 （2025/ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive landscape of instant retail, highlighting Meituan's strategic shift from online to offline operations through the launch of "Raccoon Canteen" and its implications for the supply chain and business models in the food delivery industry [1][5][11]. Group 1: Meituan's Raccoon Canteen - Meituan officially launched "Raccoon Canteen" in July, with plans to open 1,200 locations nationwide over the next three years, following a trial phase that began in December [2]. - The operational model of Raccoon Canteen resembles a food delivery hub, allowing consumers to order from multiple vendors through Meituan's platform without dine-in options [2]. - Meituan emphasizes a non-self-operated model, focusing on providing a platform for various food vendors while ensuring compliance with food safety standards [2][4]. Group 2: Supply Chain Integration - Meituan aims to enhance transparency in food sourcing with features like "Food Safety Diary," allowing consumers to trace the supply chain from source to table [3]. - The company plans to offer comprehensive supply chain services through its platform "Fast Donkey Procurement," connecting vendors with over 200 food suppliers for direct sourcing [6][7]. - This supply chain strategy aligns with industry trends, as competitors like JD.com also focus on supply chain optimization as a core business model [8][10]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competition between Meituan and JD.com is intensifying, with JD.com confirming its entry into the hospitality sector and planning to offer supply chain services to optimize costs [9][10]. - JD.com is also launching its own food service infrastructure, indicating a shift towards innovative business models that prioritize food safety and cost efficiency [10]. - The ongoing competition is not merely about pricing but involves innovation in business models and supply chain management [11]. Group 4: Additional Initiatives - Meituan is expanding its offerings with the launch of a discount supermarket project named "Happy Monkey," set to open in August, which will also rely on a robust supply chain [13]. - The company is implementing a pension insurance subsidy plan for delivery riders, aiming to enhance worker welfare and address fatigue issues [13].

白酒股上涨，皇台酒业涨停，金种子酒、迎驾贡酒涨超5%，酒ETF涨超2.3%，银华食品ETF、华安食品饮料ETF基金、食品饮料ETF天 弘、招商食品饮料ETF、华夏食品饮料ETF、华宝食品ETF涨超1%。 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 当日涨跌 | 月内涨跌 | 基金管理人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 512690.SH | 酒ETF | 2.38% | -6.02% | 鹏华基金 | | 159862.SZ | 食品ETF | 1.38% | -5.51% | 银花真金 | | 516900.SH | 食品饮料ETF基金 | 1.37% | -5.67% | 华安基金 | | 159736.SZ | 食品饮料ETF天弘 | 1.32% | -5.14% | 天弘基金 | | 159843.SZ | 食品饮料ETF | 1.27% | -5.56% | 招商基金 | | 515170.SH | 食品饮料ETF | 1.44% | -5.45% | 华夏其关 | | 515710.SH ** | 食品ETF | 1.18% | -5.29% | 华宝基等 | 中金公司 ...

Core Insights - The total revenue of China's catering industry is expected to exceed 5.5 trillion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, indicating a highly competitive market characterized by "stock competition" [1] - The innovation capability of the catering supply chain is identified as a key factor for promoting high-quality development in the industry [1] Industry Trends - The catering industry faces challenges such as severe homogenization of products and weak market survival capabilities due to the lack of operational experience among new entrants [1] - Consumer preferences are becoming increasingly diverse and personalized, influenced by regional taste differences and the evolving demands of younger generations [2][4] Company Strategies - COFCO Catering has developed four unique innovation paths based on the diverse needs of both the back kitchen and front-end consumers: cooking scene line, regional specialty line, regional cuisine line, and specific population line [2][3] - The cooking scene line addresses efficiency and cost issues in the kitchen, while the regional specialty line simplifies the cooking process for chefs by providing standardized flavor profiles [4][5] Product Development - COFCO Catering has launched products such as the "Fu Zhang Gui" frying oil, which can be used for up to 40 hours of continuous frying, extending the usage period by over 30% compared to traditional oils [4] - The company has also developed composite seasonings for regional cuisines, such as Sichuan cuisine, which allows chefs to replicate complex flavors with ease [5] - Customized products targeting specific demographics, such as students and office workers, have been introduced to meet their unique nutritional needs [6]

华泰证券研报指出，预计全年的电表招标需求或维持在9000万只左右(2024年8939万台)，本轮替换周期 高峰有望延续至2026年。价格层面，继续呈现下滑趋势，整体环比降幅约9.6%；市场集中度相对稳 定。后续分布式"四可"要求下对于智能电表模块升级要求与物联表需求提升，相关设备投资有望受到带 动。近年来电表企业股利支付情况较好，当前我们认为电表企业估值已处于低位。 ｜2025年5月30日星期五｜ NO.1中信证券：当前消费领域呈现出三条趋势主线 中信证券研报指出，当前消费领域呈现出三条趋势主线：1)回归理性、品质升级与消费平替并行；2)快 乐生活、为精神满足感和情绪价值付费；3)技术进步和迭代催生的消费新方向，这将提供诸多长期结构 性"新消费"机会，建议持续配置。维持建议从攻守兼备配置渐进至弹性配置，攻守兼备：消费互联网、 低估值高回报且经营有望率先企稳的乳制品、大众餐饮等板块。弹性配置：顺周期特征明显的餐饮供应 链、酒类、人力资源服务、酒店等行业。提振内需的政策预期将逐渐增强，消费配置表现有望迎来高 潮，再次强调增配消费。 NO.2华泰证券：电表企业估值已处于低位 NO.3中金：微盘风格可能呈现优势边际弱 ...

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