Core Insights - The A-share market has returned to the 4000-point level for the first time in ten years, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a high of 4010.73 points on October 28, 2023, before closing at 3988.22 points, down 0.22% for the day, and showing an annual increase of nearly 19% [1][2] - Despite the overall market rally, over 80 active equity funds reported negative returns year-to-date, with some funds experiencing net value losses exceeding 15%, indicating a significant divergence in fund performance during this bullish market [1][3] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has seen a "slow bull" market since April 7, 2023, rising nearly 1000 points, with the technology growth sector being a major contributor, as evidenced by the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index rising 50.8% and 48.82% respectively year-to-date [2][3] - The average year-to-date returns for ordinary stock and mixed equity funds are 33.3% and 32.93%, respectively, with some funds doubling their net value [3] Fund Performance Discrepancies - A significant number of funds, particularly those heavily invested in traditional value sectors such as banking, real estate, and liquor, have underperformed. For instance, some mixed equity funds have reported losses exceeding 15% [5][6] - Long-term underperforming funds have continued to struggle in the current market, with several funds showing net value losses of over 30% in the past three years [6] Investment Strategies and Market Dynamics - The divergence in fund performance is attributed to differing investment strategies, with many funds failing to adapt to the rapidly changing market conditions and sector rotations [4][7] - Funds that have heavily invested in sectors with significant year-to-date declines, such as consumer and healthcare, have also faced challenges, leading to poor performance [7][8] Future Outlook - The recent breakthrough of the Shanghai Composite Index above 4000 points raises questions about potential upward momentum from previously lagging sectors, which may attract capital inflows [8] - Historical data suggests that sectors that have lagged may see a rebound following such market milestones, although caution is advised against overly relying on historical trends for future performance predictions [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report by Guosen Securities highlights an extreme divergence between "old" and "new" assets in the market, emphasizing that high growth does not necessarily equate to high investment returns, and that finding fundamentally sound valuation opportunities can lead to significant returns [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Divergence - Since 2025, "small new stocks" have significantly outperformed "old stocks," with the "small new stock" portfolio rising by 183.8% compared to just 3.9% for "old stocks" [2]. - From April 7, 2025, "small new stocks" surged over 200%, while "old stocks" only increased by 13.6% [2]. - The "small new ETF" has risen by 53.1% since 2025, while the "old ETF" has only seen a 13.1% increase [2]. Group 2: Valuation and Market Activity - As of October 24, the PE ratio for "small new" sectors like electronics and computing is at the 99th percentile since 2019, while "old" sectors like real estate and liquor are at the 56th percentile [8]. - The trading volume for "small new" sectors has increased to 33%, while "old" sectors have dropped to below 2.8%, indicating a significant divergence in market activity [8]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The report stresses the importance of not only selecting high-quality stocks ("buy good") but also ensuring they are purchased at favorable valuations ("buy well") to achieve high returns [11]. - Historical examples illustrate that higher growth does not guarantee better returns, as seen in the comparison between IBM and New Jersey Standard Oil from 1950 to 2003 [11][12]. - The banking sector has shown resilience, with a decline of only 3.9% compared to a 31.1% drop in the overall market, highlighting the potential for finding undervalued stocks with solid fundamentals [15]. Group 4: Market Trends and Seasonal Effects - The current market is characterized by a "small new stock" era, but there are seasonal opportunities for "old stocks," particularly in real estate, liquor, and brokerage sectors [20][29]. - Historical bull markets have shown that each cycle has a leading sector that aligns with prevailing economic trends, with AI and technology being the current focus [21]. - Seasonal effects suggest that value sectors may outperform in the fourth quarter, with historical data indicating a 64% success rate for value over growth during this period [23].

Group 1: Market Performance - On October 27, the Shanghai Composite Index approached 4000 points, with the "hard technology" sector, including storage chips and optical modules, leading the gains [1][4] - The three major A-share indices collectively rose, with the ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index increasing by 1.98% and 1.50%, respectively [4] - Several ETFs related to communication and semiconductors saw gains exceeding 3%, with some 5G communication-themed ETFs rising over 5% [4] Group 2: ETF Trends - The semiconductor ETF (159801) tracking the National Securities Semiconductor Index has seen a net inflow of over 480 million yuan in October, bringing its total size to over 5.1 billion yuan [4] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159262) has continuously attracted net inflows for 11 weeks, with its latest size surpassing 5.7 billion yuan [5] - The chip equipment ETF (560780) has gained over 55% this year, with a net inflow of over 300 million yuan in October, bringing its size to over 1.6 billion yuan [5] Group 3: Gold ETFs - Gold ETFs and Shanghai Gold ETFs experienced a net inflow of over 15.5 billion yuan from October 20 to October 23, but saw a net outflow of nearly 2 billion yuan on October 24 [2][11] - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to high short-term congestion and reduced geopolitical risks, according to Huazhang Fund [7] Group 4: Cross-Border ETF Premium Risks - Several fund managers have issued warnings regarding premium risks associated with cross-border ETFs, with many tracking indices like the Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei 225 showing premium rates above 5% as of October 27 [3][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the issuance volume in the primary market of Chinese offshore bonds slightly declined, with 12 new bonds issued, totaling approximately $2.79 billion. The secondary market showed a slight increase. The yields of most US Treasuries moved slightly upwards. The Chinese US dollar bond index and return index both rose on a weekly basis [1][5]. - Various macro - events occurred globally, including changes in economic data in the US, Europe, Asia, and policy adjustments in different countries. In China, there were changes in GDP growth, real - estate market, and bond financing in the real - estate industry [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market - The issuance volume of Chinese offshore bonds in the primary market slightly declined last week. Twelve new bonds were issued, with a total scale of about $2.79 billion. The largest issuance was a $700 million bond by China Three Gorges Corporation, and the bond with the highest coupon rate was a 175 million RMB bond issued by Weifang Ocean Investment Group Co., Ltd. with a coupon rate of 6.9% [7][10]. 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Chinese US Dollar Bond Index Performance - The Chinese US dollar bond index (Bloomberg Barclays) rose 0.14% on a weekly basis, and the emerging - market US dollar bond index rose 0.45%. The investment - grade index closed at 202.7346, up 0.15% week - on - week, and the high - yield index closed at 164.2079, up 0.06% week - on - week. The Chinese US dollar bond return index (Markit iBoxx) rose 0.16% on a weekly basis [5][11][15]. 3.2.2 Chinese US Dollar Bond Industry Performance - In terms of industries, the consumer staples and materials sectors led the gains, while the real - estate and healthcare sectors led the losses. The yield of the consumer staples sector decreased by 86.6bps, and that of the materials sector decreased by 64.1bps. The yield of the real - estate sector increased by 2.2Mbps, and that of the healthcare sector increased by 12.7bps [21]. 3.2.3 Chinese US Dollar Bond Different Rating Performance - According to Bloomberg composite ratings, investment - grade names all rose, with the weekly yield of A - rated names decreasing by 0.6bps and that of BBB - rated names decreasing by 16.1bps. High - yield names mostly fell, with the yield of BB - rated names decreasing by 0.1bps, the yield of DD+ to NR - rated names increasing by about 558.2bps, and the yield of unrated names increasing by 325.1bps [23]. 3.2.4 Last Week's Bond Market Hot Events - Zhenro Properties Holdings failed to pay the interest of about 12.65 million yuan on "H Zhenro 3 You". CIFI Holdings Group is expected to default on the principal and interest of CIFIHG 5.95 10/20/25 [26][27]. 3.2.5 Last Week's Subject Rating Adjustments - Ratings of some companies were adjusted, including Hangzhou Jintou, CRRC Zhuzhou, Orient Securities, Prudential, Jinjiang International, Vanke, New Oriental, China Tourism Group, and Longfor Group. Reasons for adjustments varied from policy functions, financial conditions, business operations, to market competition [29][31]. 3.3 US Treasury Quotes - The report provides quotes of 30 US Treasuries with maturities over 6 months, sorted by yield to maturity from high to low, including information such as code, maturity date, current price, yield to maturity, and coupon [32]. 3.4 Macro Data Tracking - As of October 24, the yields of US Treasuries were as follows: 1 - year (T1) was 3.583%, up 3.02bps from last week; 2 - year (T2) was 3.4799%, up 2.26bps; 5 - year (T5) was 3.6053%, up 1.37bps; 10 - year (T10) was 4.0007%, down 0.81bps [36]. 3.5 Macro News - The total US national debt exceeded $38 trillion for the first time. The US September CPI was lower than market expectations. The US October manufacturing PMI and services PMI were both better than expected. The Fed plans to relax the capital requirement proposal for large - scale banks. The US and Australia signed a critical minerals agreement. The US September existing - home sales reached the highest level in seven months. The Bank of Korea maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.5%. The Central Bank of Turkey cut the benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points. Japan plans to launch a new round of economic measures. Japan's September exports increased by 4.2% year - on - year. The UK September CPI was lower than market expectations. Indonesia plans to issue sovereign bonds denominated in offshore RMB. FTSE Russell updated the inclusion criteria of the FTSE China On - shore RMB Bond Index. China's GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In September, the decline in new - home prices in first - and second - tier cities widened. The bond financing in the real - estate industry in September was 56.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 31% [35][36][38]

Economic Growth - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for significant achievements in high-quality development and technological self-reliance, with a focus on enhancing social civilization and improving people's quality of life[2] - An estimated market space of approximately 10 trillion yuan will be added over the next five years through the promotion of key industry upgrades[8] - The plan emphasizes the importance of maintaining strategic determination and confidence in the face of challenges[8] Infrastructure and Industry Policy - Policies focus on new urbanization infrastructure construction, with an expected investment demand exceeding 5 trillion yuan for underground pipeline renovations during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period[9] - The government will strengthen the top-level design and systematic deployment of artificial intelligence, enhancing foundational research and core technology development[11] Monetary Policy - The central bank aims to construct a scientific and stable monetary policy system, ensuring the smooth operation of stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets[13] - A moderately loose monetary policy will continue to support consumption and effective investment, maintaining financial market stability[14] Fiscal Policy - The Ministry of Finance announced the allocation of 500 billion yuan to local governments to enhance fiscal capacity and support effective investment[15] - This allocation is an increase of 100 billion yuan compared to 2024, aimed at addressing existing government investment project debts[15] Real Estate Policy - Recent policies in cities like Chengdu and Chongqing focus on adjusting housing fund loans and promoting smart construction in the housing sector[17] - The issuance of infrastructure REITs is encouraged to support urban renewal projects[17] Trade Relations - There is a potential meeting between the leaders of China and the U.S. during the upcoming APEC conference, with ongoing discussions on bilateral trade relations[18] - The Chinese government has expressed strong opposition to unilateral sanctions imposed by the EU[19]

Group 1 - China Poly Group Corporation issued a statement clarifying that it has no involvement in any activities related to "Hong Kong Poly Stablecoin" or "Poly Stablecoin Fund" [1] - The companies registered in Hong Kong, such as "Poly Digital Industry Group Co., Ltd." and "Poly Digital Asset Issuance Co., Ltd.", have no equity or affiliation with Poly Group and are not involved in any investment or business relationships with it [1] - Poly Group urges the public to be vigilant and cautious in investment collaborations and to report any illegal activities to the police [1] Group 2 - Poly Group is a large central enterprise approved by the State Council and directly managed by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, established 40 years ago [4] - The company has developed a diversified business system known as "5+1", covering various sectors including trade, real estate, culture, technology, engineering, and finance, with operations in over 100 cities in China and nearly 100 countries globally [4] - Poly Group ranks 173rd in the 2024 Fortune Global 500 and has received an A grade in performance assessment from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission 13 times [4] - The company has 10 main subsidiaries, employs 90,000 staff, and has 5 publicly listed companies [4]

扬子晚报网10月24日讯（记者 范晓林 薄云峰 实习生 潘伊笑）10月24日，五矿地产复牌高开超91%。截至10时30分，涨幅89.8%，报0.93港元/股。 | 14:20 6 | | | ·II 5G (100) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 五矿地产 00230 港V | | + Q Q G | | 0.930 | 港币 +0.440 | +89.80% | | | | 行业 | 地产 +0.36% > | | | | | 今开 | 0.940 最高 | 0.950 | 成交量 | 5659.85万 | | BEIR | 0.490 最低 | 0.910 | 成交额 | 5234.31万 | | 市值1 | 31.13亿 换手 | | 1.69% 市盈 | 亏损 | | 分时 | FB | 周K | 月Ｋ | (0) | | | | | 五档 | 分享 | | 9999 | | 93.88% | 卖5 = | 0.980 204万 | | 0.490 | | | 英4 | 0.970 60.4万 | | | | | 卖3 | 0.960 312万 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced significant gains, with the Shenzhen Component Index rising over 2% and the ChiNext Index increasing over 3%, indicating a strong market performance driven by specific sectors [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.71% at 3950.31 points - The Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.02% to 13289.18 points - The ChiNext Index increased by 3.57% to 3171.57 points - The STAR 50 Index saw a rise of 4.35% - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 199.18 billion yuan [1] Sector Analysis - Coal, real estate, gas, oil, and liquor sectors experienced declines - The semiconductor sector saw significant gains, with notable performance in chip concepts, CPO concepts, consumer electronics, and military trade concepts [1] Long-term Outlook - Huajin Securities suggests that the long-term slow bull trend in A-shares may further solidify due to improving profit expectations and positive policies that could enhance A-share valuations [1] Short-term Outlook - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasized achieving this year's economic growth targets, which may boost short-term profit expectations - There is a potential for increased liquidity easing, with expectations of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the central bank - This may enhance market risk appetite [1] Investment Opportunities - Huazhong Securities highlights the importance of enhancing technological self-innovation capabilities, suggesting investment opportunities in the new round of growth industries, particularly in AI computing infrastructure - Key areas to focus on include TMT sectors, computing (CPO, PCB, liquid cooling, optical fiber), applications (robots, gaming, software), and military industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a positive trend with major indices rising, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics supported by macroeconomic policies and strategic industry focus [1] Market Performance - On the morning of the 24th, all major indices in the market rose, with the ChiNext Index increasing by over 2% and the Sci-Tech 50 Index rising by approximately 3% [1] - By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.42% at 3938.98 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.3%, and the total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.2394 trillion yuan [1] Sector Analysis - Sectors such as coal, oil, gas, real estate, tourism, and electricity saw declines, while the semiconductor sector experienced strong gains [1] - Other sectors that performed well included automotive, non-ferrous metals, and home appliances, with active movements in storage chips, consumer electronics, commercial aerospace, military trade concepts, and CPO concepts [1] Policy and Economic Outlook - According to Zhongyin Securities, a resonance between policy bottom and economic bottom is forming, with ongoing macro policies likely to support an upward shift in the A-share market [1] - In the medium term, the subsequent rollout of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to reshape the investment themes and valuation systems in the capital market [1] - New productive forces represented by technological self-reliance, green transformation, and upgraded domestic demand are anticipated to become the main policy threads and funding lines over the next five years [1] - Long-term capital, particularly from public offerings, insurance funds, and state-owned capital, is expected to further concentrate in industries with strategic support value [1]

Group 1: Construction and Infrastructure Investment - In the first nine months of 2025, real estate development investment decreased by 13.9%, while narrow infrastructure and broad infrastructure investments increased by 1.1% and 3.3% respectively [1][2] - In September 2025, real estate development investment fell by 21.3%, narrow infrastructure by 4.7%, and broad infrastructure by 8.0% [1][2] - The overall performance of infrastructure in the third quarter was weak due to a high base, but the fourth quarter is expected to benefit from early fiscal fund allocations and the acceleration of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools [1][2] Group 2: Real Estate and Construction Performance - From January to September 2025, the sales area of real estate decreased by 5.5%, with a monthly decline of 11.9% [2] - The completion area of real estate saw a monthly increase of 0.38% in September, marking the first positive monthly growth since 1999 [2] - The construction area decreased by 9.4% year-on-year, with a monthly decline of 16.44% [2] Group 3: Cement Industry Insights - Cement production from January to September 2025 was 1.259 billion tons, down 5.2% year-on-year, with September's production at 154 million tons, a decline of 8.6% [2][3] - The average cement shipment rate was 41.3%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating weak demand [2] - Cement prices showed fluctuations, with an average price of 351 yuan per ton, down 64 yuan year-on-year, but slightly up by 4 yuan from early September [2] Group 4: Glass Industry Demand - Flat glass production from January to September 2025 was 72.881 million heavy boxes, down 5.2% year-on-year, with September's production at 8.148 million heavy boxes, a decline of 9.7% [3] - There was a slight improvement in demand for float glass in September, with a good trading atmosphere and a decrease in producer inventory [3] - The average price for 5mm float white glass was 67.8 yuan per heavy box, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.9 yuan [3]