证券研究报告 | 行业策略报告 2025 年 06 月 30 日 政策加码产能调控，重视粮食安全 农林牧渔行业 2025 年中期投资策略 消费品/农林牧渔 政策端基于稳 CPI 以及反内卷的目标着手调控能繁母猪产能，或进一步抬升 25~26 年猪价中枢，禽板块及后周期亦有望传导并受益，同步看好龙头饲企出海 前景。极端气候频发及贸易摩擦背景下，关注粮食安全。 ❑ 风险提示：农产品价格波动超预期，突发大规模不可控疾病，极端天气，贸 易摩擦，上市公司销量/成本不达预期，转基因商业化进度不达预期。 重点公司主要财务指标 | 公司简称 | 公司代码 | 市值 | 24EPS | 25EPS | 25PE | PB | 投资评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 隆平高科 | 000998.SZ | 14.4 | 0.08 | 0.29 | 33.3 | 2.9 | 强烈推荐 | | 登海种业 | 002041.SZ | 8.6 | 0.06 | 0.45 | 21.7 | 2.4 | 强烈推荐 | | 海大集团 | 002311.SZ | 96. ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货生猪年年报 产能去化放缓 猪价僵持 20250630 蒋琴 交易咨询号：Z0014038 从业资格号：F3027808 0769-22110802 审核：萧勇辉 交易咨询号：Z0019917 1 半年度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 产能 4 供给端 5 需求端 6 成本及利润 半年度观点及策略 基本面观点 撑有限。 u 现货：2025年2月中旬至今，全国生猪市场陷入供需僵持，生猪价格区间内窄幅调整为主。端午节过后天气开启高温模式，猪肉消 费也进入偏淡季节，猪企各方面压力较大，猪价阶段性回落，短期价格呈现持续博弈局面，盈利空间已至临界点。近期来看，现货 价格短暂跌破14元/公斤后再度反弹，反映当前市场二育低价承接意愿较强，预计在集团持续控量的背景下，现货仍将维持区间震 荡状态，上下或都难以走出较大的行情。 u 产能：据国家统计据数据显示，2025年5月能繁能繁母猪存栏量环比回升4万头至4042万头，环比微涨0.10%，同比上涨1.15%，较正 常保有量（3900万头）仍高出3.9%。上半年生猪养殖端持续盈利，母猪产能难降，行业产能主动调减意愿偏弱，仍 ...

那么，上半年猪价为何下跌？"往年春节过后生猪出栏量会季节性下降，但今年上半年尤其是二季度生 猪出栏量稳定，并且明显比去年要高，使得今年节后猪价持续回落，不过波动幅度不大。"中国农业科 学院北京畜牧兽医研究所研究员、农业农村部猪肉全产业链监测预警首席分析师朱增勇分析，供给充裕 和消费季节性下降导致今年猪价稳中有跌、窄幅震荡，但冻猪肉轮储、冻品库存下降又对猪价形成一定 支撑。 本报讯（农民日报·中国农网记者 侯雅洁）今年以来，猪价稳中有跌。农业农村部监测数据显示，6月 25日，全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.22元/公斤，比1月6日的22.81元/公斤下降11.4%。6月第3 周，生猪价格为14.61元/公斤，较年初累计跌11.8%，同比下跌20.8%。 猪价后市走势如何？"综合看，在供需两侧多重因素的交织作用下，今年下半年猪价很难出现大涨大跌 的局面，预计将呈现平稳运行、窄幅波动的特征。"农业农村部猪肉全产业链梯队分析师李鹏程分析， 在生产供应端，2024年下半年能繁母猪存栏持续增长，带动新生仔猪量去年四季度开始持续高于上年同 期，预示2025年下半年商品猪出栏量将稳步增加，生猪供应比较充裕。在农业农村部 ...

Core Viewpoint - Muyuan Foods is initiating its "international narrative" through its Hong Kong IPO, aiming to connect with international capital and enhance its valuation narrative by emphasizing "internationalization" and "technology-driven" growth [1][7]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Debt - Muyuan Foods has experienced significant asset growth, with total assets increasing from 528.87 billion to 1772.66 billion from 2019 to 2021, showing growth rates of 77.22%, 131.87%, and 44.56% respectively [4]. - However, from 2022 to 2024, total assets have plateaued, with figures of 1929.48 billion, 1954.05 billion, and 1876.49 billion, reflecting much lower growth rates of 8.85%, 1.27%, and -3.97% [4]. - The company has accumulated substantial debt, with total liabilities reaching 565.22 billion in 2020, a 166.93% increase, and surpassing 1 trillion in 2021, with a debt ratio of 61.30% [6]. - As of 2024, total liabilities remained above 1 trillion, with a debt ratio of 58.68%, indicating ongoing financial pressure [6][5]. Group 2: IPO and Market Strategy - The company emphasizes that the Hong Kong IPO is not primarily for raising funds but to enhance its credibility in the global market [7][10]. - The management acknowledges the need for internationalization as a critical growth pathway, especially given the current domestic market constraints [10][12]. - Despite the focus on internationalization, the company faces challenges in achieving a premium valuation as a leading enterprise, given the historical performance of newly listed stocks in Hong Kong [13][14]. Group 3: Technological and Competitive Challenges - Muyuan Foods aims to position itself as a leader in agricultural technology, but its R&D investment of 17.47 billion only accounts for 1.27% of its revenue, which is significantly lower than international competitors [16][17]. - The company’s R&D personnel count has decreased, raising concerns about its capability to compete in a technology-driven industry [17]. - Current international efforts are limited, with 100% of revenue in 2024 coming from domestic sources, indicating a slow start in its international expansion [18].

Core Viewpoint - Dekang Agriculture (02419) is recognized for its outstanding investment value, with Huayuan Securities issuing a "buy" rating based on its leading position in profitability and technology within the industry [1] Group 1: Business Model and Strategy - Dekang Agriculture has developed a unique "platform + ecosystem" model, which is expected to become a reference point for industry transformation [1] - The company has shifted from a production-oriented to a service-oriented enterprise, focusing on creating value for farmers through its "modern farm" initiative [2] - The "modern farm" model allows new farmers, often without prior experience, to quickly become proficient under Dekang's comprehensive training services [2] Group 2: Technological Innovation and Efficiency - Dekang Agriculture emphasizes technological innovation and research investment, maintaining a leading edge in the industry [3] - The company has established a global-leading breeding system and aims to produce high-quality food products while empowering farmers through a light-asset model [3] - In 2024, Dekang's modern farm is projected to achieve a per-head profit of 504 yuan, outperforming competitors like Muyuan and Wens [7] Group 3: Economic Impact and Future Prospects - Dekang's model has resulted in higher income for farmers, with an average income of 770,000 yuan per household in 2024, surpassing competitors by significant margins [5] - The company's approach aligns with national policies for high-quality development and rural revitalization, suggesting a promising future for its business model [7] - Dekang Agriculture is well-positioned to replicate the success of leading companies in the industry, making its future performance highly anticipated [7]

■本报记者 曹沛原 通讯员 黄锋 在广西宁明县明江镇，从事生猪养殖行业9年的王先生，凭借两家规模化养猪场，成为了当地生猪稳产 保供的中坚力量。截至目前，他经营的养殖场母猪存栏达11000余头，肉猪存栏超6000头。 随着养殖规模不断扩张，王先生却遭遇发展瓶颈。养殖规模扩大带来的人力成本攀升、猪舍环境维护压 力剧增，设备升级也存在资金缺口，让这位"养猪能手"陷入资金周转困境。为降低疫病风险、保障生产 安全，改善养殖环境、引进优良种猪、升级智能化养殖设备迫在眉睫。 "这笔贷款太及时了，我们计划用100万元引入智能饲喂系统，150万元改造通风除臭设备，剩下的资金 用于储备优质种猪。"王先生表示，智能化设备投用后，预计可降低30%的人工成本，生猪出栏周期缩 短15天，优化肉料比。 作为服务"三农"的金融主力军，邮储银行宁明县支行此次贷款投放不仅助力单家企业突破发展瓶颈，更 彰显金融服务对生猪全产业链的赋能价值。上述资金将推动养殖场实现从传统养殖向智慧养殖的跨越， 有效提升区域生猪稳产保供能力，对稳定"菜篮子"价格、保障民生需求具有重要意义。 下一步，邮储银行宁明县支行将持续优化金融产品和服务，聚焦生猪养殖、饲料加工、 ...

投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.06.23-2025.06.27）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2661.46 点(周环比+0.80%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 3921.76 点（周环比+1.95%），深证综指收于 2052.56 点（周环比+4.24%），上证综指收于 3424.23 点（周环比+1.91%），科 创板收于 988.21 点（周环比+3.17%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑输上证综指。 牧业： 截至 6 月 28 日，我国主产省集贸市场活牛价格 26.52 元/公斤，环比-0.48%，目前为动物蛋白消费淡季，牛肉价格保 持震荡状态；奶牛方面截至 6 月 20 日主产区合同内外平均收购价为 3.04 元/公斤，环比-0.3%，同比-7.88%，奶价下 跌幅度持续放缓，散奶价在 2.3 元出场附近止稳。我们预计随着供给端产能去化的逐步传导，原奶价格在 25H2 有望 企稳回升；肉牛方面近期犊牛与活牛价格已经出现上涨，预计新一轮肉牛周期有望开启，板块景气度有望拐点向上。 种植链： 近期小麦启动最低收购价预案，对小麦价格存在较强底部支撑，同时玉米端下游库存持续消化，玉米价格出现小幅反 弹。在外部环境不 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨农产品 [Table_Title] 生猪养殖专题系列 130：生猪产能，路向何方？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2021 年以来，生猪养殖行业步入出清末期阶段，规模企业资本开支持续收缩，行业 ROE 水平 处于回升趋势。当前行业产能仍相对过剩，政策近年来多次提及行业控产能与高质量发展，若 政策发力，有望进一步提升行业盈利水平与稳定性，重视行业头部企业龙头进阶的投资机会。 当前行业优质企业估值水平处于低位，重点推荐牧原股份、温氏股份、巨星农牧与神农集团。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈佳 高一岑 SAC：S0490513080003 SAC：S0490523030003 SFC：BQT624 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 生猪养殖专题系列 130：生猪产能，路向何方？ [Table_Summary2] 2021 年以来，生猪养殖行业步入出清末期阶段，规模企业资本开支持续收缩，行业 ROE 水平 处于回升趋势。当前行业产能仍相对过剩，政策近年来多次提 ...

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Core Insights - The futures market for live pigs shows a closing price of 13,790 yuan/ton on June 27, 2025, reflecting an increase of 110 yuan/ton from the previous week [1] - The current prices for live pigs in various regions have increased, with Henan at 14.86 yuan/kg (+0.53 yuan), Jiangsu at 15.24 yuan/kg (+0.58 yuan), and Sichuan at 13.86 yuan/kg (+0.21 yuan) [1] - The supply side indicates a slight increase in the number of breeding sows and a decrease in the number of sows being eliminated, while the total stock of market pigs has increased by 0.45% [1] Supply Analysis - As of May, the number of breeding sows stands at 5.0834 million, up 0.33% month-on-month [1] - The number of eliminated sows is 96,829, down 0.91% from the previous month [1] - The total stock of market pigs is 35.6403 million, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.45% [1] Demand Analysis - The slaughtering rate of enterprises is at 27.74%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points from the previous week [1] - The inventory rate of frozen products in key domestic slaughtering enterprises is 17.41%, an increase of 0.06% [1] - Consumer demand appears to be recovering, with an increase in slaughter volume and frozen inventory, although overall consumption remains weak [1] Market Outlook - The analysis suggests that if the breeding sector reduces the number of pigs being sold in July, live pig prices may rise [1] - The September futures contract is showing strong performance, indicating market confidence [1] - In the medium to long term, the production capacity and profitability of pig farming remain favorable, with a trend of increasing breeding sows expected to continue [1]