1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the first half of 2026, PX is expected to be the strongest variety in the polyester industry chain [15] - The cost - driven PX market has strong support, and the long - spread position should be held; the PTA market is in a high - level oscillation range with cost - driven strength and the long - spread position should be maintained; the MEG market is suitable for range operation with a weak mid - term trend and a short - spread position [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Directory PX Valuation and Profit - PX price fluctuates and the curve near - end is flat; the 05 - 9 month spread strengthens, while the 1 - 5 spread weakens [17][19] - PXN expands due to weak naphtha demand, and the aromatics blending oil demand is weak [24][27] - The aromatics blending oil economy weakens, the PX - MX spread hits a new high, and the overseas MX isomerization economy improves [38][42][46] - The profitability of STDP units at home and abroad recovers, and the enthusiasm for starting work is restored [48] Supply and Demand, Inventory - The domestic PX operating rate is at a historical high. The 100 - million - ton PX device of Dalian Fujia is restarting, and the Asian overall operating rate is 79.5% (+0.6%) [53][55] - In November, PX imports were 820,000 tons, with an increase in imports from South Korea and Japan and a decline from Brunei [60] - In November, Japan's aromatics production and inventory declined; South Korea's aromatics export and inventory data show certain trends [71][78] - In November, the long - term PX monthly inventory accumulated by 50,000 tons to 4.07 million tons [85] PTA Valuation and Profit - The PTA price rises significantly, the basis rebounds steadily, the basis and month - spread of the 1 - 5 contract change, and the warehouse receipt volume decreases marginally [87][91] - The processing fee rebounds from the bottom, the overall price of the polyester chain moves up, and the downstream follow - up increase is limited [93][94] Supply and Demand, Inventory - The PTA operating rate stabilizes at 71 - 72%. The 2.5 - million - ton device of Xin凤鸣 Phase I and the 1.2 - million - ton device of Zhongtai Chemical are restarting [96] - In November, PTA exports were 360,000 tons, with significant increases in Egypt, Oman, and India [99] - The PTA inventory decreases marginally [114] Position - The long - position holdings of Morgan Qiankun in PTA increase, and foreign - funded seats increase their long - position holdings to 154,000 lots (+40,000 lots) [118][120] MEG Valuation and Profit - The MEG month - spread declines, the basis weakens, and the single - side price trend is weak [132] - The relative valuation continues to decline, and the trend continues until active production cuts [136] - The coal - based device profit is - 217 yuan/ton (+43), and the oil - based device continues to be in a loss pattern [138] Supply and Demand, Inventory - In 2026, many MEG production projects are put into production. The domestic MEG operating rate is 72% (+2%), and the weekly supply is about 400,000 tons [128][144] - In November, MEG imports were 580,000 tons, lower than market expectations. Overseas multiple devices reduce their loads, and imports are expected to decline [146][149] - The MEG port inventory continues to rise [154] Polyester Segment Operating Rate and Inventory - The current polyester operating rate is 89.5%. The production reduction of the three major polyester filament factories is about 2.819 million tons. The polyester load in January is adjusted from 89% to 88%, and is expected to be 84% in February [161] - During the New Year's Day, the sales volume is light, and the inventory is expected to accumulate again. The equity inventory of filament (POY/FDY) is 5 - 10 days [165][171] Export and Profit - From January to November, the total polyester exports were 13.3 million tons, +14.7%. The export growth rates of various polyester products are different [173] - The losses of filament factories expand, while the profitability of staple fiber and bottle chips is acceptable [175] Terminal: Weaving, Textiles and Apparel Operating Rate and Order - The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 60% (-2%), and the texturing machine operating rate is 79% [196] - Domestic orders weaken, and raw material inventory increases. The weaving end has weak new orders, and the坯布 inventory accumulates again [199][201] Retail and Export - From January to November, the retail sales of Chinese textile and apparel were 1.3597 trillion yuan, +3.5% [202] - From January to November, the cumulative export of Chinese textile and apparel was 137.8 billion US dollars, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [208] Overseas Market - The retail data of textile and apparel in the US and Europe show strong growth. The US clothing retail in January - September 2025 was 160.7 billion US dollars, +7.5% [212][214] - The UK clothing retail in January - November was 43.8 billion pounds, +6% [216] - The overseas textile and apparel inventory declines slightly month - on - month [218]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short fiber: In the short term, it is a volatile market, and in the medium term, it is weak. The contradiction between upstream and downstream continues, with short - term high - level volatility. The actual output of short fiber increases, and the strategy of going long on PX/TA and short on PF should be continued to hold [7]. - Bottle chips: It shows a volatile and weak trend. The contradiction between upstream and downstream continues, with short - term high - level volatility. The actual supply in January is expected to increase first and then decrease, and the supply - demand situation will improve marginally from late January to the end of the month. A light - position long spread strategy can be considered at low prices [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Short Fiber (PF) Valuation and Profit - The current spot premium is 950 - 1000 yuan/ton, and the futures margin is 1000 yuan/ton, which is relatively high. The futures margin is on the low side [8][96]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: The factory operating rate has increased to 98.5%. Some factories plan to shut down before the Spring Festival, mainly around the end of January [7]. - Demand: Domestic terminal orders are weakening, and the yarn, weaving, and grey fabric sectors are reducing their loads. The demand is expected to be weak in the future. Some downstream factories may consider taking early holidays in mid - January. The short fiber is nominally destocking, but the physical inventory is accumulating. The short - fiber inventory index has risen to 8.9 days (+1.2 days) [7]. - Strategy: 1) No unilateral strategy. 2) Observe long spreads at low prices and intervene when the valuation is reasonable. 3) Continue to hold the strategy of going long on PX/TA and short on PF [8]. Upstream Viewpoint Summary No relevant information provided. Bottle Chips (PR) Valuation and Profit - The spot processing fee is 400 - 450 yuan/ton, which is neutral; the 02 - 03 processing fee is 400 - 450 yuan/ton, also neutral [9]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: The average operating rate this week is expected to reach 82.2%. Factory operations have resumed, and new devices are being put into production. Overall operations may decline from late January [9]. - Demand: Downstream operations have increased month - on - month. The average operation rate of beverage factories has recovered to around 70%. The operation rates of the edible oil and sheet sectors have also increased month - on - month. Exports from November to December are expected to be in the range of 55 - 60 tons. Factories are destocking, and the inventory has decreased to around 13 days [9]. - Strategy: 1) No unilateral strategy. 2) Take profit on short spreads and consider light - position long spreads (for contracts after March). 3) No cross - variety strategy [9]. Base and Calendar Spread - The price has回调 from a high level, the base has significantly recovered, the near - term calendar spread is still affected by deliverable products, and the far - end structure is gradually strengthening [21]. Spot Price and Important Spreads - The price has been rising continuously, and the trading sentiment is fair. The average weekly quotation is 6035 yuan/ton, and the average FOB price is 795 US dollars/ton [24]. - Compared with PVC, the substitution drive is low; compared with PP and other general plastics, the cost - effectiveness is prominent, and the substitution in the packaging field continues [26][27]. Production and Operation - Since 2024, the production capacity base has been expanding, and the current effective production capacity has reached 2168 tons (CCF caliber). After the new device of Fuhai is put into production, the production capacity base will rise to 2198 tons. The bottle - chip load this week is expected to rise to 82.2% [32]. Raw Materials - PTA load is low, and the processing fee has slightly recovered; ethylene glycol load has rebounded to a high level, and the port inventory is accumulating [33][39]. Cost and Profit - The polymerization cost is around 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton. The bottle - chip processing fee is passively compressed, and the spot processing fee is around 450 yuan/ton. The export profit is around 725 - 750 yuan/ton [44]. Inventory - The inventory pressure of domestic polyester bottle - chip factories is neutral, and the inventory has decreased to around 13 days. According to CCF data, the estimated social inventory in November is 323 tons, and in December it is 344 tons [49]. Device Changes - Some devices are under maintenance, and some new devices have been put into production. Pay attention to the progress of new device implementation [55][56]. Demand - The downstream operation rate has increased month - on - month. The operation of beverage enterprises has slightly recovered, the edible oil factory operation is at a medium - to - low level, and the demand for sheet materials is neutrally supported [59][60][61]. Global Trade Flow of Bottle Chips - Overseas bottle - chip production capacity has increased little in recent years. The downstream demand increment overseas will increasingly rely on imports to achieve supply - demand balance. China's main bottle - chip export trade flows include China - Southeast Asia - South Asia, China - Central Asia, Russia, and Eastern Europe, etc. [73]. Export Situation of Bottle Chips - In November 2025, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 65.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From January to November 2025, the total export volume was 708.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% [80]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet of Bottle Chips - There is a trend of inventory accumulation, but the amplitude is moderate [88]. Textile and Apparel Industry Retail - In November 2025, the retail sales of Chinese textile and apparel increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month [132]. Export - In November 2025, the export of textile and apparel decreased month - on - month. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export of textile and apparel was 17491.9 billion yuan, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.7% [140][144].

消息面 华东一套年产50万吨聚酯瓶片装置1月初因故计划检修10-15天。 12月31日，郑商所瓶片期货仓单664张，环比上个交易日减少15张。 机构观点 截至2025年12月31日，国内华东水瓶片年均价5936.52元/吨，出口777.99美元/吨FOB上海港，分别较去年下跌12.01%和11.09%。 新世纪期货： 原料高位震荡，叠加节前最后一个工作日，业内入市心态不佳。供需僵持状态下，聚酯瓶片市场或区间盘整运行。 瑞达期货（002961）： 俄乌和谈未出现实质性进展，国际原油上涨，影响聚酯走势。供应方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量33.36万吨，较上期持平，产能利用率73.05%，较上期 持平。中国聚酯行业周度平均产能利用率87.19%，较上周+0.29%。出口方面，11月中国聚酯瓶片出口53.30万吨，较上月增加0.99万吨，或 +1.90%。2025年1-11月累计出口量586.52万吨，较去年同期增加63.64万吨，涨幅12.17%。短期瓶片开工率持平，当前生产毛利-178左右，利润亏 损加剧，短期瓶片价格预计跟随原料价格波动，主力合约上方关注6250附近压力，下方关注5900附近支撑。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX market sentiment is supported by the expectation of tight supply in the first quarter of 2026, with the PX - naphtha spread widening to $360 and the PX - mixed xylene spread rising to $244, which encourages PX producers to actively purchase MX for conversion. Demand remains robust, with high domestic PTA operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November. The high gasoline spread also supports aromatics. New polyester installations keep the polyester load high, maintaining high PTA consumption, increasing market willingness for domestic products, and rapidly strengthening the basis. Although polyester demand weakens seasonally in China, the production cuts by polyester factories are insufficient to form a negative feedback. In the context of the commodity market's enthusiastic sentiment, PTA prices are significantly boosted [2] - Overseas ethylene glycol (MEG) plant maintenance plans are increasing, with two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, scheduled to shut down next month due to poor profitability, and Saudi Arabian MEG plants starting planned maintenance. The inventory at East China MEG ports remains at 750,000 tons. Against the backdrop of continuously falling coal prices, MEG prices struggle to gain effective support. With the successive commissioning of new plants, market supply pressure continues to increase. The return of coal - based MEG plants exerts significant pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to recent domestic policy changes, and MEG prices may receive support under the carbon neutrality background [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 434.8 yuan/barrel on December 29, 2025, to 436.1 yuan/barrel on December 30, 2025, an increase of 1.3 yuan/barrel [2] - **PTA**: PTA - SC increased from 1962.3 yuan/ton to 1974.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.55 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.6210 to 1.6231, an increase of 0.0021; CFR China PX increased from 891 to 894, an increase of 3; PX - naphtha spread increased from 349 to 359, an increase of 11; PTA main futures price rose from 5122 yuan/ton to 5144 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton; PTA spot price rose from 5065 yuan/ton to 5100 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton; spot processing fee rose from 334.1 yuan/ton to 352.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.9 yuan/ton; disk processing fee rose from 391.1 yuan/ton to 396.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.9 yuan/ton; main basis rose from (63) to (50), an increase of 13; PTA warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 114,648 to 107,482, a decrease of 7,166 [2] - **MEG**: MEG main futures price rose from 3817 yuan/ton to 3847 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha increased from (145.22) yuan/ton to (139.05) yuan/ton, an increase of 6.2 yuan/ton; MEG domestic price rose from 3687 yuan/ton to 3694 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton; main basis remained at - 140 [2] - **Industrial Chain Operating Rates**: PX operating rate remained at 86.28%; PTA operating rate remained at 74.63%; MEG operating rate remained at 61.76%; polyester load remained at 88.81% [2] - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F decreased from 6570 yuan/ton to 6545 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; POY cash - flow decreased from (246) to (303), a decrease of 57; FDY150D/96F decreased from 6810 yuan/ton to 6760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; FDY cash - flow decreased from (506) to (588), a decrease of 82; DTY150D/48F decreased from 7760 yuan/ton to 7745 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; DTY cash - flow decreased from (256) to (303), a decrease of 47; long - filament sales rate increased from 40% to 41%, an increase of 1%; 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6620 yuan/ton to 6640 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; polyester staple fiber cash - flow decreased from 154 to 142, a decrease of 12; short - fiber sales rate increased from 52% to 54%, an increase of 2%; semi - bright chip increased from 5755 yuan/ton to 5760 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; chip cash - flow decreased from (161) to (188), a decrease of 27; chip sales rate increased from 51% to 81%, an increase of 30% [2] 3.2 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the northwest restarted after shutting down early last week [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - All the energy - chemical products covered in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC, are expected to show an oscillatory trend [1][2][4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices fluctuated downward. The WTI February contract closed down $0.13 at $57.95 per barrel, a 0.22% decline; the Brent February contract closed down $0.02 at $61.92 per barrel, a 0.03% decline; the SC2602 contract closed at 437 yuan per barrel at night, down 1.6 yuan per barrel, a 0.36% decline. As of December 30, the total number of oil and gas rigs increased by 1 to 546, the highest since December 12, but still 43 less than the same period last year, a 7.3% decrease. Indian imports of Russian crude oil in December are expected to drop to about 1.1 million barrels per day, but may increase in January. Oil prices have fallen nearly 20% this year and are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed flat at 2473 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 closed down 0.23% at 2977 yuan per ton. China's first batch of low - sulfur fuel oil export tax - rebate quotas for 2026 is 8 million tons, the same as last year. The low - sulfur fuel oil market will have sufficient supply from January to February, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market has some support. The absolute prices of FU and LU may fluctuate with oil prices, and the increase in FU warehouse receipts may put additional pressure on the market [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.47% at 3038 yuan per ton. The arrival of diluted asphalt at ports is currently stable, and refinery raw material supply in January is not affected by the US - Venezuela geopolitical event. Production increased slightly at the end of the year, but the production schedule for January is low. There is still some demand in the south, while the north has more inventory demand. Asphalt prices may fluctuate with oil prices and may be stronger than crude oil and fuel oil [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed up 0.43% at 5144 yuan per ton, EG2605 closed up 0.79% at 3847 yuan per ton, and PX futures contract 603 closed up 0.63% at 7316 yuan per ton. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A 200,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Guangxi has restarted. PX faces a game between reality and expectation, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate after a rebound [4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2605 rose 5 yuan per ton to 15670 yuan per ton, the NR main contract rose 25 yuan per ton to 12690 yuan per ton, and the butadiene rubber BR main contract fell 35 yuan per ton to 11565 yuan per ton. With easing precipitation in the production areas and fading downstream tire demand, rubber prices are expected to oscillate [4][5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2182 yuan per ton. Iranian plant shutdowns will lead to a decline in January arrivals, but MTO plant loads are also decreasing. Port inventories have rebounded, and methanol is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6150 - 6300 yuan per ton. Polyolefin production will remain high, while downstream orders and starts are weakening. Polyolefins are expected to oscillate at a low level [5]. - **PVC**: On Tuesday, the PVC market prices in East China were mixed, with some prices in North China rising and those in South China stable. PVC supply remains high, domestic demand is slowing, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price, basis rate, spot price change rate, futures price change rate, basis change, and the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on December 31, 2025 [7]. 3.3 Market News - The US EIA inventory report shows that last week, US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased. As of the week of December 19, US crude oil inventories increased by 405,000 barrels to 424.822 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 707,000 barrels to 21.57 million barrels. Refinery crude oil processing volume decreased by 212,000 barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 94.6%. US crude oil production decreased by 18,000 barrels per day to 13.83 million barrels per day [10]. - Under US sanctions, Indian imports of Russian crude oil in December are expected to drop to about 1.1 million barrels per day, reaching a three - year low in 2025, but are expected to increase in January [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents historical price trends of main contracts for multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025 through various charts, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][13][14][15][17][18][20][21][22][23][25][26][27][28][29]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the historical basis trends of main contracts for different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [30][31][32][35][36][37][39][40][41][42]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report analyzes the historical spreads between different contracts for energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [44][45][46][47][49][50][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes historical spreads and ratios between different energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, etc. [60][61][62][63][64][65][68]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the historical production profit trends of LLDPE and PP [69][70]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Serves as the assistant director of the research institute and director of energy - chemical research. With more than ten years of research experience in the futures derivatives market, she has won many awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises [74]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyzes crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. With in - depth industry research and many awards, she often publishes views in the media [75]. - **Di Yilin**: Focuses on natural rubber and polyester research. She has won several awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyzes methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC. With a background in energy - chemical spot - futures trading, he holds a CFA Level 3 certificate [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The implementation of the trade - in policy will continue to boost the terminal demand for chemicals. The prices of energy and chemical products will continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The OPEC+ will hold a monthly video conference on January 4th to plan the organization's future production, and the market generally expects it to maintain the decision of "suspending the production increase in the first quarter". Geopolitical situations in Venezuela, Russia, and Ukraine are short - term supports for oil prices. The Chinese government has advanced the issuance of 62.5 billion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to support consumer goods trade - in, which will significantly boost styrene [2]. - The supply and demand of the chemical industry have been flat recently, with no major contradictions, and the overall trend will be volatile. The PTA spot processing fee has increased, and the operating enthusiasm of PTA enterprises will rise. The processing fee of downstream polyester filament has dropped to a three - year low, and the industrial chain profit has shifted. The spot liquidity of polyolefin has tightened, and the futures price will move sideways. The rebound of styrene is not optimistic due to the drag of raw material pure benzene and high inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela continue to disrupt the market, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate. API data shows that US crude oil and refined product inventories continued to accumulate in the week of December 26th, and the total inventory of US crude oil and petroleum products is rising against the seasonal trend. The geopolitical prospects in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela are the core factors affecting crude oil supply expectations. The decline in Venezuela's shipments is not obvious for now, but its crude oil exports are expected to decline later. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate under the balance of oversupply and frequent geopolitical disruptions [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price rises following the increase in crude oil prices. The increase in crude oil prices drives up the asphalt futures price. If there is a substantial supply disruption in the US - Venezuela situation, the asphalt price will be strong; otherwise, it may rise and then fall. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and inventory is starting to accumulate [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Be vigilant about the positive support for fuel oil from Iran's suspension of natural gas supply to Iraq. Although there are factors that support the high - sulfur fuel oil price, such as the potential resumption of fuel oil power generation in Iran and Iraq, the demand outlook is currently suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region, and there are medium - and long - term double negatives [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates [4]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disruptions have emerged again, and combined with capital rotation, the upward trend in the pre - holiday market may continue [4]. - **Urea**: There is concentrated pre - holiday procurement, and urea is expected to be in a consolidation state [4]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The reduction in polyester production is gradually being realized, and the driving force for ethylene glycol is average [4]. - **PX**: The expected supply - demand pattern of PX has weakened, and the price has回调 after rising. International oil prices are strong, providing cost support. However, due to the market's focus on supply increase expectations, the price has回调 after rising, and the terminal has slowed down its procurement rhythm [12]. - **PTA**: The maintenance of polyester plants is gradually being implemented. The supply - demand of PTA has weakened marginally, and the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost in the short term [13]. - **Short - Fiber**: The callback is limited, the processing fee is under pressure, and the willingness to reduce production is increasing. The cost support is strong, but the downstream is in a wait - and - see state, and the processing fee is under pressure [24]. - **Bottle Chip**: It fluctuates following the upstream cost. The price of polyester bottle chips fluctuates following the raw materials, and the short - term driving force is limited [26]. - **Propylene**: The CP price in January has been raised, and the PDH is expected to reduce its operating rate, so the PL has strengthened slightly [4]. - **PP**: The CP price has been raised, and PP has strengthened slightly [4]. - **Plastic**: Both long and short positions are cautious before the holiday, and plastic is expected to fluctuate. Oil prices are fluctuating, and the fundamental support for plastic has increased slightly, but the driving force for both long and short positions is relatively weak [31]. - **Styrene**: The short - term market is dominated by sentiment, and the sustainability of export transactions should be monitored. The cost support from pure benzene is weak, but there are positive factors such as export orders and market sentiment stimulation. However, the supply and demand situation is not optimistic, and the upside is restricted [18]. - **PVC**: Short - sellers take profits before the holiday, and PVC is mainly in a fluctuating state. The macro - level sentiment boost may be short - term, and the supply - demand expectation has improved, but the high - inventory pressure still exists [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and is expected to fluctuate. The macro - level sentiment boost may be short - term, and the supply - demand is still in a state of oversupply in the short term [36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including the latest values and changes [39]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. are given, along with their latest values and changes [41]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report lists different varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2343.82, up 0.17%; the commodity 20 index is 2683.42, down 0.17%; the industrial products index is 2271.47, up 0.56% [284]. - **Energy Index**: On December 30, 2025, the energy index was 1093.97, with a daily increase of 0.49%, a 5 - day decrease of 1.23%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.18%, and a year - to - date decrease of 10.91% [286].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - The energy and chemical industry is divided into several sectors including energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [8]. - The report provides option strategies and suggestions for selected varieties in each sector, covering underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy recommendations [8]. - It is recommended to construct option - combination strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Underlying Futures Market Overview - The prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various energy and chemical futures are presented, such as crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2602) is 437, down 2 with a decline rate of - 0.36%, trading volume of 6.61 million lots (down 0.71 million lots), and open interest of 3.04 million lots (down 0.18 million lots) [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR data of different option varieties are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For example, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.56 (down 0.23), and the open interest PCR is 0.66 (down 0.02) [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of option underlying assets are determined from the strike prices of the maximum call and put option open interests. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 540, and the support level is 435 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different options are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes, etc. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 26.515%, the weighted implied volatility is 32.23% (up 1.59%) [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy - Related Options - **Crude Oil**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The US Department of Energy delayed data release due to the Christmas holiday. Military interceptions in Venezuela and production changes in Kazakhstan and the Middle East affected the market. The price showed a weak trend [7]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility was below the average, the open interest PCR was below 0.70, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 540, and the support level was 435 [7]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; for spot long hedging, construct a long collar strategy [7]. - **LPG**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Supply had no significant increase, and chemical demand supported the price. The price showed a volatile and downward trend [9]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility was around the average, the open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 4300, and the support level was 4000 [9]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; for spot long hedging, construct a long collar strategy [9]. 3.5.2 Alcohol - Related Options - **Methanol**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Inventory was expected to increase, and the price showed a weak trend with limited rebound [9]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility was around the historical average, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 2300, and the support level was 2100 [9]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; for spot long hedging, construct a long collar strategy [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Port inventory was expected to increase, and the price showed a continuous weak trend [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility was above the average and rising, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong short - side power. The pressure level was 3800, and the support level was 3600 [10]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a short - volatility strategy; for spot long hedging, hold spot long + buy put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [10]. 3.5.3 Olefin - Related Options - **PVC**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Inventory decreased overall, and the price showed a weak rebound after a continuous decline [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility decreased to below the average, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a continuous weak trend. The pressure level was 5000, and the support level was 4300 [10]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: For spot long hedging, hold spot long + buy at - the - money put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [10]. 3.5.4 Rubber - Related Options - **Rubber**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Inventory was at a medium level, and the price showed a warming - up trend [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility gradually returned to around the average, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak overall trend. The pressure level was 17000, and the support level was 14000 [11]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; no spot hedging strategy was provided [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: No detailed analysis and strategy recommendations in the above - mentioned format were found. 3.5.5 Polyester - Related Options - **PTA**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Polyester load decreased, and PTA inventory decreased. The price showed a strong short - term rebound [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility was at a relatively low level, the open interest PCR was above 1.00, indicating a strong market. The pressure level was 4750, and the support level was 4400 [11]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bull - spread call option strategy; construct a long - biased call + put option combination strategy; no spot hedging strategy was provided [11]. 3.5.6 Alkali - Related Options - **Caustic Soda**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The capacity utilization rate increased, and the price showed a weak and stable trend [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility was at a high level, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 2320, and the support level was 2040 [12]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear - spread strategy; for spot long hedging, construct a long collar strategy [12]. - **Soda Ash**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Inventory decreased, and the price showed a low - level volatile trend [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility was at a relatively high historical level, the open interest PCR was below 0.50, indicating a bearish market. The pressure level was 1300, and the support level was 1100 [12]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear - spread strategy; construct a short - volatility combination strategy; for spot long hedging, construct a long collar strategy [12]. 3.5.7 Urea Options - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Production decreased, and the price showed a short - term weak trend [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility was at a relatively low historical level, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong short - side pressure. The pressure level was 1700, and the support level was 1640 [13]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; for spot long hedging, hold spot long + buy at - the - money put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - PX: ★★☆ (Two stars, representing a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market is in a complex situation with different products showing various trends due to factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and cost [2][3][5] - Some products are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others have expectations of improvement in the medium - to - long - term but face short - term pressures [5][6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated within the day. Downstream polypropylene cost pressure eased slightly, but demand recovery was limited as some polypropylene plants were still shut down [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures had narrow - range movements. For polyethylene, imports were increasing, and downstream demand was weak. For polypropylene, production was expected to increase slightly, and short - term demand was weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices fluctuated. Port inventory was high, but supply - demand pressure might ease in the future. Consider long - term positive spreads on dips [3] - Styrene futures had a narrow - range movement. Cost had no obvious positive impact, and there were expectations of supply - demand increase and inventory accumulation [3] Polyester - PX prices were driven up by strong expectations but deviated from downstream demand. PTA was mainly affected by PX, with expectations of low - load inventory reduction and margin repair [5] - Ethylene glycol production decreased, and inventory increased. It was in a low - level fluctuation, with potential improvement in the second quarter but long - term pressure [5] - Short fiber inventory was low, and it was in the off - season. Its price followed raw materials, and long - term supply - demand was relatively good. Bottle chip demand weakened, and it was cost - driven with long - term overcapacity [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices rose sharply. Import volume was expected to decrease, and port inventory might enter a de - stocking cycle in the medium - to - long - term. Pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spreads [6] - Urea prices were strongly volatile. Supply was tightening, but it might increase this week, and short - term prices might decline [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC had a slightly upward trend. Supply might increase, demand was low, and inventory pressure was high. It was expected to move within a range [7] - Caustic soda prices were strong. Supply pressure was high, downstream demand growth was limited, and profit compression was expected [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices were strong. Production was increasing, inventory was decreasing, but there was long - term supply - demand surplus. Consider the strategy of long glass and short soda ash 05 [8] - Glass prices were strong. Capacity was being reduced, inventory pressure was high, and long - term capacity reduction was expected to reach a new balance [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical commodities are expected to fluctuate. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all forecasted to maintain an oscillatory trend [1][2]. - The uncertainty in the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the US military strikes in Nigeria may impact the oil market. The increase in US oil inventories and the decrease in refinery processing volume also affect the oil price trend [1]. - The supply and demand fundamentals of different energy and chemical products vary. For example, low - sulfur fuel oil supply is sufficient, while high - sulfur fuel oil has some support; asphalt supply and demand are in a state of short - term stability and long - term uncertainty [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices rose. WTI February contract closed up $1.34 to $58.08 per barrel, a 2.36% increase; Brent February contract closed up $1.30 to $61.94 per barrel, a 2.14% increase. SC2602 night - session closed at 436.9 yuan/barrel, up 1.3 yuan/barrel, a 0.3% increase. Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and military strikes in Nigeria raised concerns about supply, but the increase in US inventories and the decrease in refinery processing volume also had an impact. With the New Year's Day holiday approaching, the market trading was light, and oil prices were expected to continue to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure remained stable, and high - sulfur fuel oil had some support. Singapore was expected to receive more low - sulfur blending components, increasing local inventories. The short - term absolute prices of FU and LU might follow the oil price, and the increase in FU warehouse receipts might put additional pressure on the market [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. The arrival of diluted asphalt in ports was stable in the short term, and domestic refinery raw material supply in January was not affected by the US - Venezuela geopolitical event. Supply was expected to increase slightly at the end of the year but decrease in January. The demand in the southern region still had a tail - end effect, while in the north, it was mainly for stocking. The short - term asphalt price might follow the oil price and be relatively stronger than crude oil and fuel oil [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 and EG2605 prices declined on Monday. PX futures and spot prices also fell. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. Some polyester plants had device maintenance plans, and the MEG port inventory increased. The PX market was in a game between reality and expectation, and the ethylene glycol price was expected to oscillate after a rebound [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main rubber contracts declined. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The precipitation in the producing areas eased, and the peak - production season overseas had about one more month. The raw material price had some support, but the downstream tire demand weakened. The rubber price was expected to oscillate [4][6]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the methanol spot prices in different regions were reported. The Iranian device shutdown would lead to a decline in arrivals in January, but the MTO device load also decreased. The port inventory increased as the unloading speed recovered. Methanol was expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the prices of polyolefin products were given. The supply would remain at a high level, and the downstream demand was weakening. The polyolefin market was expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Monday, the PVC market prices in different regions increased. The supply was at a high - level oscillation, and the domestic demand slowed down. The PVC market was a weak - reality and strong - expectation structure, and the price was expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on December 29, 2025 and December 26, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky met in Florida to discuss a proposed Russia - Ukraine "peace agreement", but they did not reach an agreement on key issues such as territory and economic reconstruction. Russia planned to re - evaluate its position in the peace talks [10]. - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories increased last week. As of December 19, US crude inventory increased by 405,000 barrels to 424.822 million barrels, and the inventory at the Cushing delivery center increased by 707,000 barrels to 21.57 million barrels. The refinery processing volume decreased by 212,000 barrels per day, and the refinery capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 94.6%. US crude production decreased by 18,000 barrels per day to 13.83 million barrels per day [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, and p - xylene [12][13][14][18][20][22][25][26][27]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report presents the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle - chip [29][34][35][37][38][39]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Price Spreads**: The report provides the price spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European - line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [40][42][46][49][51][53][55]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Price Spreads**: The report shows the price spread and ratio charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external market, crude oil B - W, fuel oil high - low sulfur, fuel oil/asphalt, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, PP - LLDPE, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber [57][59][68]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report presents the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [65].

Group 1: Polyester Industry Chain Price Trends - The prices of polyester industry chain products have increased as of December 25, with PX at 7318, PTA at 5040, polyester filament at 6450, polyester bottle chips at 5990, and BOPET at 7475 yuan/ton, reflecting increases of +7.88%, +8.39%, +2.79%, +5.27%, and +1.15% respectively compared to the previous week [1] Group 2: Production Capacity Insights - PX production is currently at 89% capacity, with no new capacity expected before Q4 2024. PTA has a 74% operating rate with significant pressure from 2025, and no new capacity is anticipated for 2026. Polyester filament is stable with a 90% operating rate and an annual expansion of 3-4% [1] Group 3: Demand and Consumption Forecast - From January to November this year, the apparent demand for polyester filament has only increased by 3.5%. Following a proactive inventory accumulation cycle in 2024, a destocking cycle is expected to begin in early 2025. By 2026, a return to an inventory accumulation cycle is anticipated, with consumption growth expected to return to the 5-10% range [1] Group 4: Profitability Analysis - Recent profitability trends show PX recovering from zero to 700 yuan/ton, PTA moving from cash flow losses to break-even, and polyester entering a state of slight losses. By 2026, PX profits are expected to expand further, while PTA is likely to maintain break-even, and polyester is projected to recover to a profit range of 100-200 yuan [1] Group 5: Lithium Battery Materials Sector - The lithium battery materials sector has seen a decline due to rumors of a 15% production cut by CATL in Q1 and speculation about 6F prices dropping below 110,000 yuan. However, ongoing negotiations indicate that pricing discussions are progressing as planned, and CATL's suppliers have stated that a 15% reduction is not feasible without losing market share [2] Group 6: Chemical ETF Performance - As of December 30, 2025, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) rose by 0.37%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Hengyi Petrochemical (000703) up by 5.21% and Hengli Petrochemical (600346) up by 2.95% [2]