Investment Rating - The report rates the petrochemical industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [2][8]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is expected to gradually phase out old production capacities that are over 20 years old, driven by new regulations from the Ministry of Emergency Management and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [2]. - The refining sector has a high proportion of old facilities, with nearly 50% of the total refining capacity being over 20 years old, suggesting significant room for improvement in supply [2][3]. - The olefins market, particularly propylene, shows potential for recovery as 21% of its capacity is over 20 years old, and current market conditions are favorable due to reduced overseas supply [2]. - The polyester segment has fewer old facilities, but the recovery potential for polyester filament is significant, with 13% of its capacity being over 20 years old [2]. Summary by Sections Old Capacity Analysis - The report highlights that nearly 50% of refining capacity and 40% of capacity over 30 years old are considered old, indicating a substantial opportunity for supply-side improvements [2][3]. - Specific old capacity percentages for various petrochemical products include: - Refining: 49.3% (20 years), 39.4% (30 years) - Propylene: 21.2% (20 years), 10.1% (30 years) - Pure Benzene: 17.8% (20 years), 3.1% (30 years) [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the phase-out of old capacities [2]. - In the propylene sector, companies like Satellite Chemical and Baofeng Energy are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the market recovery [2]. - For polyester filament, Tongkun Co. is recommended as a key player to watch as the market conditions improve [2].

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Stronger than the market, maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - Focus on the progress of phasing out outdated capacity and upgrading in the petrochemical industry [2] - The petrochemical index performed relatively well this week, closing at 2272.55 points, up 1.13% from last week [5] - The best performer within the petrochemical sector was oil extraction III, which rose by 2.83% [3][5] Summary by Sections 1. Oil Market - Energy prices have shown a slight decline; as of July 18, Brent crude futures and TTF natural gas futures closed at $69.33 per barrel and €33.71 per MWh, down 1.4% and 5.3% respectively [8] - U.S. crude oil inventory increased by 9,346 thousand barrels to 1,255,837 thousand barrels, while total inventory (including strategic reserves) rose by 9,046 thousand barrels to 1,658,540 thousand barrels [12] 2. Polyester - The price of polyester filament has decreased, with POY, DTY, and FDY prices at 6,550, 7,800, and 6,800 yuan per ton respectively, showing mixed changes in price spreads [17] - The inventory days for polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased, with FDY, DTY, and POY inventory days at 25.6, 30.7, and 25.4 days [22] 3. Olefins - Sample prices for polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) remained stable at 7,700 and 8,200 yuan per ton, with a total petrochemical inventory of 770,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons from last week [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies mainly involve constructing option combination strategies with sellers as the main body, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts, including crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc [4] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - It shows the trading volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of various energy - chemical options, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [5] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of option underlyings are analyzed, such as the pressure and support levels of crude oil, LPG, etc [6] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - It provides the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, HISV20, and implied - historical volatility difference of various energy - chemical options [7] 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: Fundamentally, OPEC+ increases supply, and US supply follows the oil price rebound. The short - term market is weak. Option factors show that implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, and the short - term short - selling power increases. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] - **LPG**: Fundamentally, the futures price is weak, and the supply difference decreases. The demand side has potential risks. The short - term market is bearish. Option factors show that implied volatility fluctuates around the historical mean, and the short - selling power increases. Strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: Fundamentally, port inventory increases, and enterprise inventory is at a relatively low level. The market shows a weak rebound. Option factors show that implied volatility fluctuates below the historical mean, and the market is in a weak shock. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Fundamentally, port inventory decreases, and the downstream factory inventory days increase. The market shows a weak bearish shock. Option factors show that implied volatility fluctuates around the historical mean, and the market is weak. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: Fundamentally, trader inventory decreases, and port inventory increases. The market shows a weak trend with short - selling pressure. Option factors show that implied volatility fluctuates around the historical mean, and the market weakens. Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: Fundamentally, the domestic synthetic rubber production increases. The market shows a low - level consolidation. Option factors show that implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, and the short - selling power increases. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [12] 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: Fundamentally, the PTA load is high, and the short - term maintenance plan is less. The market shows a weak trend with pressure. Option factors show that implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, and the market weakens. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [13] 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: Fundamentally, the capacity utilization rate of large - scale enterprises changes. The market shows a bullish trend. Option factors show that implied volatility fluctuates around the mean. Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] - **Soda Ash**: Fundamentally, the inventory is at a historical high. The market shows a bullish trend. Option factors show that implied volatility fluctuates around the historical mean, and the market is in a weak shock. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] 3.5.7 Other Options - **Urea**: Fundamentally, port inventory increases, and domestic demand is weak. The market shows a shock under short - selling pressure. Option factors show that implied volatility fluctuates below the historical mean, and the market weakens. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment rating [4]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is expected to see the exit of over 20-year-old outdated capacities, which could accelerate the recovery of the refining sector. The EIA has adjusted its oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to an average of $69 and $58 per barrel, respectively [4][10]. - Demand for oil is projected to increase by 700,000 to 800,000 barrels per day this year, with a notable decline in demand in Q2 2025. The IEA and OPEC have also provided similar forecasts for global oil demand growth [4][15]. - The report highlights the potential for improved profitability in the polyester sector, driven by supply-demand dynamics and the gradual exit of outdated capacities [21]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices decreased to $69.28 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 1.53%. The WTI price also fell by 1.62% to $67.34 per barrel [25]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. increased by 7 to 544, although this represents a year-on-year decrease of 42 rigs [39]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin increased to $14.50 per barrel, while the U.S. gasoline crack spread decreased to $21.14 per barrel [4]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as oil prices adjust downward, and the competitive landscape for leading refining companies is expected to benefit from the exit of overseas refineries and low domestic refining rates [21]. Polyester Sector - PTA profitability is on the rise, while profits from polyester filament yarn have declined. The report notes that the overall performance of the polyester industry is average, with a need to monitor demand changes [4][21]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as the industry is expected to gradually improve [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends attention to leading refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and China Petroleum, as well as upstream exploration and production companies like CNOOC and China National Petroleum Corporation [21].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View Supported by the macro "anti-involution" theme, the ethylene glycol price is running strongly under supply-side disturbances. Although the demand shows no sign of improvement, the supply side has frequent accidents, leading to a stronger near-term pattern of ethylene glycol, delaying the inventory accumulation expectation again. With low inventory levels, the price remains prone to rise and difficult to fall. Before the macro narrative materializes, it is expected to remain strong in the short term [3]. 3. Content Summary by Section Polyester Price Range Forecast - **Price Range**: The monthly price ranges are 4000 - 4600 for ethylene glycol, 6400 - 7300 for PX, 4400 - 5300 for PTA, and 5700 - 6400 for bottle chips [2]. - **Volatility**: The current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 15.94% for ethylene glycol, 21.59% for PX, 19.17% for PTA, and 15.85% for bottle chips. Their historical percentiles (3 - year) are 27.7%, 67.9%, 48.2%, and 47.9% respectively [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and worried about the decline of ethylene glycol price, the strategies include shorting ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 4400 - 4500, buying put options (EG2509P4250) and selling call options (EG2509C4500) with a 50% hedging ratio at 10 - 15 and 35 - 60 respectively [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low, to prevent the rise of ethylene glycol price, strategies are to buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 4200 - 4250, sell put options (EG2509P4250) with a 75% hedging ratio at 25 - 50 [2]. Core Contradiction Macro "anti - involution" theme supports the strong operation of ethylene glycol price under supply - side disturbances. Demand is weak, but supply - side accidents make the near - term pattern stronger, delaying inventory accumulation and keeping the price easy to rise and hard to fall in the short term [3]. 利多解读 The document does not provide specific content for this part. 利空解读 Long - filament manufacturers are rumored to have a 10% production cut plan, which is expected to be partially implemented, affecting the total polyester load by 1 - 2% [5]. Supply - side News - Satellite Petrochemical's first line restart is postponed from mid - August, reducing the production forecast for August - September [7]. - Three ethylene glycol plants in Saudi Arabia with a total capacity of 1.7 million tons/year have restart problems due to infrastructure issues, and the restart time is undetermined. The import volume in August is expected to decrease [7]. Price and Spread Data - **Price Changes**: On July 18, 2025, compared with the previous day and week, prices of various products such as Brent crude oil, PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol showed different degrees of changes. For example, Brent crude oil was at $69.7/barrel, up $0.1 from the previous day and down $0.7 from the previous week [8]. - **Spread Changes**: Spreads such as TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, and EG1 - 5 also had corresponding changes. For example, the PX1 - 5 month spread was 52 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous day and 14 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. Processing Fee and Sales Rate - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees of products like gasoline reforming, aromatics reforming, and bottle chips showed different degrees of change. For example, the bottle chip processing fee was 377 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous day and 63 yuan/ton from the previous week [9]. - **Sales Rates**: Sales rates of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips increased. For example, the polyester filament sales rate was 58.2%, up 20% from the previous day and 22.9% from the previous week [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views Methanol - The inland market's maintenance has reached its peak, and there is an expectation of increased production in late July. The port market faces dual pressures: an expected arrival of 1.25 million tons in July and planned maintenance of coastal MTO units, which will weaken demand. The port will continue to accumulate inventory from July to August, but the current absolute inventory is relatively low year - on - year, with limited upside and downside space, suggesting range - bound operations [4]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly. The main logic is the weakening downstream market and the approaching end of the consumption peak season, with a possible supply surplus in the second half of the year. The EIA weekly report shows that Cushing inventory reached its highest level since June, and US distillate demand slightly declined, although crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels. In the short term, after the oil price decline, there is a high probability of a stalemate between bulls and bears. It is recommended to adopt a short - term band strategy [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Short - term downward pressure exists due to factors such as the postponement of some domestic device maintenance plans and the recovery of overseas supply. However, considering the expected commissioning of new PTA devices, the supply - demand situation is expected to remain tight, and there is support at low levels [31]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak, with a weakening basis. The absolute price is under pressure. Strategies include range - bound operations, short - selling above 4800, and other operations [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the EGO9 contract and pay attention to the pressure around 4400 [31]. - **Short Fiber**: The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, with limited driving forces. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [31]. - **Bottle Chips**: There is an expectation of improved supply - demand, but the absolute price still follows the cost side. Attention should be paid to further production cuts and downstream follow - up [31]. Polyolefins - From a supply - demand perspective, PP maintenance is gradually peaking, and PE maintenance in the second half of the month is still relatively high. It is the seasonal off - season for demand, with static supply and demand both declining, inventory accumulating, and apparent demand weakening. Dynamically, PE import offers are still scarce, and demand is expected to improve seasonally in late July. For unilateral strategies, both PP and PE lack strong driving forces, and range - bound operations are recommended. For arbitrage, take profit when LP is around 250 [35]. Urea - The futures price has recently declined. The short - term driving forces for the futures price mainly come from the seasonal weakening of demand and the increasing supply pressure, with export expectations providing partial support for large - granular urea. Agricultural demand has ended, leading to a decline in the spot trading atmosphere, which in turn drags down the futures sentiment. The supply side has a high daily output, and although maintenance has increased, the total supply is abundant, and the weak new order transactions amplify the pessimistic atmosphere. Exports only support large - granular urea locally and have limited impact on small - granular urea. It is expected that the futures price may still face pressure in the short term [42]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in July, but due to high import expectations and relatively high port inventory, its own driving force is limited. Affected by weak oil prices and the styrene price, it may fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the main contract BZ2603 and adopt a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread [46]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak, with increasing port inventory and short - term pressure on the basis. It is under short - term pressure. Strategies include short - selling the EB08 contract, selling call options with an exercise price above 7500, and narrowing the EB - BZ spread [46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, MA2601 closed at 2434, MA2509 at 2367, with a MA91 spread of - 67 and a Taicang basis of 11. Compared with July 15, most prices and spreads showed certain changes [2]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory was 35.234% (a decrease of 1.28% from the previous value), port inventory was 790,000 tons (an increase of 9.92%), and social inventory was 114.3% (an increase of 6.20%) [3]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: As of Thursday, the domestic upstream enterprise operating rate was 72.5% (a decrease of 4.11% from the previous value), the overseas upstream enterprise operating rate was 71.1% (an increase of 11.12%), and the operating rates of various downstream devices also showed different changes [4]. Crude Oil - **EIA Weekly Data (as of July 11, 2025)**: US crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels per day, refinery operating rate was 93.9%, crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels, and other data also showed corresponding changes [7]. - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 17, Brent was at $68.77 per barrel, WTI at $66.68 per barrel, and various price spreads also changed compared with July 16 [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: Various product prices in the polyester industry chain, such as PX, PTA, and MEG, showed different changes on July 16 compared with July 15, and price spreads also changed accordingly [31]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various devices in the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, and MEG, showed different degrees of change on a weekly basis [31]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509, as well as various price spreads and basis values, showed certain changes compared with July 15 [35]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE and PP inventories showed different trends, and the operating rates of their devices and downstream industries also changed [35]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, the prices of various urea products and related price spreads and basis values showed certain changes compared with July 15 [42]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days of urea showed different trends, with the factory - level inventory decreasing by 7.46% on a weekly basis [42]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, the prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products, as well as price spreads and basis values, showed certain changes compared with July 15 [46]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in the East China port showed different trends, and the operating rates of related industries also changed [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, option strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. Each option variety's strategy report includes an analysis of the underlying asset's market, research on option factors, and option strategy recommendations [8]. - The overall strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Price and Volume Changes**: The report provides the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy and chemical futures contracts, such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, and others [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - **PCR Indicators**: The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various option varieties are presented. These indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying asset's market and the turning point of the underlying asset's market, respectively [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - **Pressure and Support Points**: The pressure points, support points, and their offsets, as well as the maximum open interests of call and put options, are provided for each option variety. These points are determined based on the strike prices with the maximum open interests of call and put options [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - **Volatility Metrics**: The report includes the at-the-money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, change in weighted implied volatility, annual average implied volatility, call and put implied volatilities, historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatilities for each option variety [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy - Crude Oil - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ increased oil supply in July, and the US supply rebounded with rising oil prices [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Crude oil prices showed a short - term weak market trend, rising first and then falling [7]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated around the mean, the open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating increasing short - term bearish power, with a pressure level of 500 and a support level of 510 [7]. - **Strategies**: For volatility, construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy; for spot hedging, construct a long collar strategy [7]. 3.5.2 Energy - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Fundamentals**: Global supply divergence decreased, but there were uncertainties in demand, and PDH profit recovery might support the operating rate [9]. - **Market Analysis**: LPG showed a short - term bearish market trend, with wide - range fluctuations followed by a decline [9]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated around the historical mean, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating increasing bearish power, with a pressure level of 4500 and a support level of 3700 [9]. - **Strategies**: For volatility, construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy; for spot hedging, construct a long collar strategy [9]. 3.5.3 Alcohols - Methanol - **Fundamentals**: Domestic methanol production started to recover, and port inventory increased [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Methanol showed a short - term narrow - range oscillating trend [9]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility was below the historical mean, the open interest PCR was around 0.80, indicating a weak - oscillating market, with a pressure level of 2950 and a support level of 2200 [9]. - **Strategies**: For volatility, construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy; for spot hedging, construct a long collar strategy [9]. 3.5.4 Alcohols - Ethylene Glycol - **Fundamentals**: Port inventory increased, and the destocking process would slow down [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Ethylene glycol showed a weak - bearish oscillating trend with pressure above [10]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated around the historical mean, the open interest PCR was around 0.70, indicating a weak trend, with a pressure level of 4350 and a support level of 4300 [10]. - **Strategies**: For volatility, construct a short - volatility strategy; for spot hedging, hold a long spot position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [10]. 3.5.5 Polyolefins - Polypropylene - **Fundamentals**: PP trade inventory increased, and port inventory decreased [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Polypropylene showed a weak trend with bearish pressure above [10]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated around the historical mean, the open interest PCR decreased below 0.80, indicating a weakening trend, with a pressure level of 7500 and a support level of 6800 [10]. - **Strategies**: For spot hedging, hold a long spot position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [10]. 3.5.6 Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The price of natural rubber rebounded, but downstream demand did not change significantly [11]. - **Market Analysis**: Rubber showed a low - level consolidation trend [11]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated around the mean, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, with a pressure level of 15000 and a support level of 13000 [11]. - **Strategies**: For volatility, construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy [11]. 3.5.7 Polyesters - PTA - **Fundamentals**: PTA load increased, and the maintenance season ended [12]. - **Market Analysis**: PTA showed a weak trend with pressure above [12]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated around the mean, the open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating a weakening trend, with a pressure level of 5000 and a support level of 3800 [12]. - **Strategies**: For volatility, construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy [12]. 3.5.8 Alkalis - Caustic Soda - **Fundamentals**: The average utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity changed slightly [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Caustic soda showed a short - term bullish trend [13]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated around the mean, the open interest PCR was around 0.80, with a pressure level of 3400 and a support level of 2200 [13]. - **Strategies**: For spot hedging, hold a long spot position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [13]. 3.5.9 Alkalis - Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: Soda ash inventory increased, and enterprise shipments slowed down [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Soda ash showed a low - level consolidation trend with a bullish bias [13]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated around the historical mean, the open interest PCR was below 0.50, indicating a weak - oscillating market, with a pressure level of 2080 and a support level of 1100 [13]. - **Strategies**: For direction, construct a bearish spread combination strategy of put options; for volatility, construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy; for spot hedging, construct a long collar strategy [13]. 3.5.10 Urea - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand difference decreased, and inventory declined. Positive export news boosted the market [14]. - **Market Analysis**: Urea showed an oscillating trend under bearish pressure [14]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility was below the historical mean, the open interest PCR was below 0.80, with a pressure level of 1900 and a support level of 1700 [14]. - **Strategies**: For volatility, construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy; for spot hedging, hold a long spot position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints Urea - The main logic for the stabilization of the urea futures market is the improved demand - side expectations, but the high - supply pressure still limits the rebound height. Future demand improvement expectations, along with partial device overhauls, support the futures price [5]. Polyolefin - For PP and PE, there is a lack of strong driving forces. The static situation shows a double - decline in supply and demand, inventory accumulation, and weak apparent demand. However, there are expectations of demand improvement for PE in late July. Suggested strategies include range - bound operations for both PP and PE, and taking profit when the LP spread reaches around 250 [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - Different products in the polyester industry chain have different outlooks. PX may be boosted in the short - term, PTA is expected to be supported in the short - term, MEG is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, short - fiber has limited driving forces, and bottle - chip has expectations of supply - demand improvement [48]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose due to expectations of marginal supply contraction and supply uncertainties caused by geopolitical risks. It is recommended to adopt a short - term band - trading strategy [52]. Methanol - The inland methanol market is expected to see an increase in production in late July. The port market faces pressure from expected arrivals and planned MTO overhauls, resulting in continuous inventory accumulation from July to August. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations [73]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, there is limited supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals, but high profits stimulate high production. It is recommended that previous long - position holders temporarily exit and wait and see. For PVC, the current supply - demand pattern is in the off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [81]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve in July, but its own driving force is limited. For styrene, the supply - demand is marginally repaired, but the supply - demand expectation is still weak. Short - term price support may come from the overall positive sentiment in the domestic commodity market [86]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea - **Futures Prices**: On July 17, the 01 contract closed at 1718 yuan/ton (up 0.47% from July 16), the 05 contract at 1730 yuan/ton (up 0.17%), the 09 contract at 1743 yuan/ton (up 0.58%), and the methanol - main contract at 2373 yuan/ton (up 0.25%) [1]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 12 yuan/ton on July 17 (up 29.41% from July 16), the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was - 13 yuan/ton (down 116.67%), and the spread between the 09 and 01 contracts was 25 yuan/ton (up 8.70%) [2]. - **Main Positions**: On July 17, the long - position of the top 20 was 110750 (down 1.28% from July 16), the short - position of the top 20 was 123632 (up 1.78%), and the long - to - short ratio was 0.90 (down 3.00%) [3]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Most upstream raw material prices remained stable, with only slight changes in a few items such as动力煤港口(秦皇岛) (up 0.32%) and合成氨(山东) (down 0.33%) [4]. - **Spot Market Prices**: Spot prices in different regions showed minor fluctuations, with some prices decreasing slightly [4]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: Domestic urea daily production decreased slightly on July 18 compared to July 17. Weekly data showed a decrease in domestic urea production, an increase in device overhaul losses, a decrease in factory inventory, and an increase in port inventory [5]. Polyolefin - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 17, L2601 closed at 7235 yuan/ton (up 0.14% from July 16), L2509 at 7215 yuan/ton (up 0.01%), PP2601 at 7016 yuan/ton (up 0.11%), and PP2509 at 7020 yuan/ton (up 0.10%). Some spot prices remained unchanged [10]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE and PP inventories increased, and the operating rates of some devices and downstream industries decreased [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Upstream prices such as Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased slightly. Downstream polyester product prices and cash - flows showed various changes, with some prices rising and some cash - flows changing significantly [48]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of different segments in the polyester industry chain showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [48]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 18, Brent crude oil was at 69.52 US dollars/barrel (up 1.46% from July 17), WTI at 67.55 US dollars/barrel (up 0.01%), and there were also changes in various price spreads [52]. - **Supply - Demand and Market Logic**: Supply decreased due to factors such as a decline in US crude oil inventories and production cuts in the Iraqi Kurdish region. Market focus has shifted to supply - side risks [52]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 17, MA2601 closed at 2438 yuan/ton (up 0.16% from July 16), MA2509 at 2373 yuan/ton (up 0.25%), and there were changes in various regional price spreads [73]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased slightly, while port and social inventories increased. The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries also changed [73]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: For PVC and caustic soda, futures and spot prices showed minor changes, and there were also changes in price spreads [76]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The operating rates of the chlor - alkali industry and its downstream industries changed, and inventory levels also showed different trends [79][80][81]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 17, the price of pure benzene and styrene and their related price spreads changed. For example, the price of benzene - ethylene in the East China spot market decreased [85]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories and operating rates showed different trends, with some operating rates decreasing [85][86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will operate strongly (PX view score: 1, PTA view score: 1, PR view score: 1) [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester industry chain is currently facing weak demand and is mainly driven by cost. PTA will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor. The profit distribution pattern of the industry chain has tilted towards the raw material link again [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Changes - On July 17, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $67.54 per barrel, up 1.75%; Brent crude oil futures settlement price was $69.52 per barrel, up 1.46% [1] - The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $574.75 per ton, down 1.14%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $692.00 per ton, down 1.91% [1] - The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $833.00 per ton, down 0.16%; CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4,714 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1] - The CCFEI price index of PTA internal market was 4,728 yuan per ton, up 0.21%; the external market was $620.00 per ton, down 0.16% [1] - CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6,742 yuan per ton, up 0.39%; CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5,902 yuan per ton, up 0.27% [1] - The market price of polyester bottle - chips in East China was 5,935 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; in South China was 6,010 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester products such as DTY, POY, and short - fiber showed different degrees of decline or remained unchanged [2] Operating Conditions - On July 17, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 78.32%, down 0.66%; the PTA factory load rate was 80.59%, unchanged; the polyester factory load rate was 87.15%, unchanged; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 71.93%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 58.02%, down 1.10% [1] - The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament was 40.00%, down 2.00%; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester staple fiber was 53.00%, up 9.00%; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester chips was 53.00%, down 10.00% [1] Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days; Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal; Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Market Analysis - International crude oil prices showed an interval fluctuation. Although there was a short - term rebound, the supply - demand situation was weak. PTA will have new device put into production in the third quarter, which is mismatched with PX in time. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, with strong bottom support [2] - The market is trading on the maintenance expectation of PTA under low processing fees. The downstream polyester operating rate is still higher than that of last year, and the spot basis has strengthened. However, due to the expected new device production on the supply side and the lack of improvement in the off - season on the demand side, it is difficult to boost prices [2] - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was stable at 5,900 - 6,000 yuan per ton. The supply side's quotations were mixed, with low operating rates but sufficient market supply. Downstream terminal buying enthusiasm was average, and market sentiment was cautious [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry has certain demand resilience in 2025, but the growth height is limited. The downstream terminal demand is affected by the macro - situation, and the foreign demand faces challenges. The cost - side crude oil supply and demand tend to be in surplus, while PXN has strong support. PTA is in an expansion cycle with compressed industrial profits, and MEG has low - inventory and high - valuation characteristics, facing the pressure of inventory accumulation [1][5]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - **PX**: In the first half of 2025, the PX price fluctuated widely, and the absolute price mainly followed the trend of crude oil [8]. - **PTA**: In the first half of 2025, the PTA price also fluctuated widely following the crude oil [12]. - **MEG**: The MEG price was affected by crude oil, and its center of gravity moved downward [16]. 3.2 Polyester Demand - **Production and Demand Forecast**: It is estimated that the polyester production in 2025 will be about 78.28 million tons, with a demand growth rate of about 6%. The production in the first half of the year was about 39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 8%. The second - half demand will follow the seasonal pattern, but the overall height is limited due to the over - export in the first half [19]. - **New Capacity**: The planned new polyester capacity in 2025 is 6.3 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of about 8%. The new capacity in the first half of the year was 2.6 million tons, and 3.7 million tons are planned to be put into production in the second half. Bottle - chip production accounts for a large proportion, and the short - fiber production has little increase [22]. - **Inventory and Profit**: Except for bottle - chips, the inventory pressure of filament and short - fiber is not large. The polyester comprehensive profit in the first half of 2025 was low, with filament in a small - profit state, short - fiber's profit compressed in the off - season, and bottle - chips in a loss state. In the second half, the bottle - chip over - supply pattern will intensify, while the short - fiber profit may rise [25][28]. 3.3 Terminal Demand - In the first half of 2025, the domestic demand showed the characteristic of "peak season not prosperous". The downstream factories have low expectations and low enthusiasm for stockpiling. The domestic demand may be improved by policies, but the foreign orders may decrease in the second half [31][34]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Naphtha and Gasoline**: In the first half of 2025, the naphtha spread was at a high level, and it will remain strong in the second half. The gasoline cracking profit will maintain a neutral level, with obvious differentiation between peak and off - seasons [38]. - **PX Capacity and Supply**: Since 2024, PX has entered the end of the expansion cycle. In 2025, the new capacity is expected to be 3 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of about 5%. The new supply growth rate is only 1%, and the supply depends on the load of existing devices and imports. The PX valuation has strong support below, and the import volume is expected to increase in the second half [39][47][49]. - **PX Inventory**: In the first half of 2025, PX was in a state of destocking, with a destocking volume of about 900,000 tons. In the second half, there will be a certain supply - demand gap, and the destocking volume is expected to be 500,000 - 600,000 tons [52][53]. 3.5 PTA - **Capacity and Supply**: In 2025, the PTA capacity will continue to expand, with an expected new capacity of 8.7 million tons. The new supply pressure is large, with an average new production growth rate of 11%. The supply pressure will intensify after the commissioning of Honggang Petrochemical and Sanfangxiang in the middle of the year. The export volume has decreased, and the inventory accumulation pressure is large in the second half [56][59][69]. 3.6 MEG - **Capacity and Supply**: The MEG capacity growth rate has declined. In 2025, the planned new capacity is 1.6 million tons, and the new production growth rate is about 2.7%. The supply is expected to remain at a high level in the second half, and attention should be paid to the changes in existing devices [72][75]. - **Profit and Inventory**: The MEG profit in the second half of 2025 will face certain pressure. The import volume is expected to increase. The current inventory is at a low level, and it is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage in the third quarter [78][81][84]. 3.7 Trading Opportunities Outlook in the Middle of 2025 - **PX**: The PX price mainly follows the crude oil, with an absolute price range of 6,000 - 7,500 yuan/ton. Consider long - position opportunities at low levels, and 9 - 1 positive spreads or long - PXN at low levels [85]. - **PTA**: The PTA price follows the crude oil, with an absolute price range of 4,000 - 5,300 yuan/ton. The processing fee should be short - sold at high levels, and 9 - 1 positive spreads can be tried [86]. - **MEG**: The MEG price is expected to run weakly in the range of 3,800 - 4,600 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels, and pay attention to the long - TA and short - EG positions [87].